Soler vs. the Cubans

by CubsfaninCA

There have been a lot of opinions on the floor and ceiling for Jorge Soler since he started his career. Most agreed that he had a solid floor, but opinions on the ceiling varied and he was even described as “possibly the best in the organization, might be better than Bryant.”  I think it’s safe to say that’s not going to be the case. (If it is, he’s got some catching up to do this year already.) With most players you could easily pull up some players for comparison, but Cuban players generally have different developmental paths than most major leaguers do.

Soler has passed the 300 PA mark, so it’s typically safe to say a lot of his numbers are stabilizing to some point. He’s been heating up lately so maybe he’d fare better if I waited a couple more weeks, 300 is a nice round number. We can thus take some similar Cuban players over their first 300 PA--I actually used their first 72 games, in most cases about the same--and see how they worked out. Obviously there are some apples to oranges, especially considering the advanced age of players like Jose Abreu, but these are the 12 other significant Cuban players still in the league compared against Soler. The left side of the chart is their career numbers (thus far) and the right side is how they fared after their first 72 games, ranked by their OPS after those 72 games.

One of the numbers not on the chart is doubles, which is the one thing Soler has done more than any of them. He has 20 doubles over his first 72 games, next nearest is Puig and Abreu at 17. He’s also 4th in homers (9) after Abreau (26!), Cespedes (14) and Puig (12). I think it’s safe to say his home run output has been disappointing thus far, but he has been driving the ball to the gaps and making a lot of hard outs. The one number that jumps out is the strikeouts: he is by far and away the leader (91) with only Abreu coming close (74). That is a bit worrisome.

So can we predict what kind of player Soler might be? If you go by these numbers, the closest players he profiles to are Alexei Ramirez, Yonder Alonso, and Yasmani Grandal. Decent players, but their numbers are not what you’d expect from an offensive position like RF. You could also make the argument that Soler was a year younger than Alonso and Grandal and 4 years younger than Ramirez when he made his debut, so he’s got more growing to do.

Who would we like him to be?--well, obviously Abreu and Puig. Abreu is an outlier and started at 26 and is in a class all of his own. Puig had a ridiculous start to his career and has cooled off since, not doing well in the playoffs and injured most of this year, so I’m not sure I’d like to have him right now instead of Soler. Cespedes? Yes, that’s fine please: 20-25 HR, .260-.280, with a great arm, although you’d hope he could produce a higher OBP than Cespedes has.   

I think the bottom line is his ceiling is definitely not in Kris Bryant territory, and we’ll probably have to be happy with the line above as a relatively cheap, young RF who has a cannon for an arm in RF. I’ll take that line in our lineup after Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber any day of the week.