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Projecting End-of-Season Statistics
The Cubs will play their 54th game tonight, which will put them at the one-third mark of the baseball season. I thought it would be interesting to see what each player’s full season stats would be if we project out based on these first two months. For most players, it was as simple as taking their current stats (as of yesterday prior to the game) and multiplying by three. But for players who started in the minors or were injured, I have taken that into consideration and examined the percentage of days they have been on the roster when making the calculations. For Soler, I removed three weeks’ worth of stats to account for his current injury. The normal caveats, of course, apply. Players can get injured at any time, fall into slumps, or get hot, and so these will most definitely not look the final lines for a lot of these players. But it should provide a quick sense of how good/bad of a season players are currently having.
Miguel Montero: 244/361/403 (764 OPS), 87 H, 12 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR, 30 R, 42 RBI, 0 SB, 2.1 WAR
Anthony Rizzo: 317/443/574 (1.017 OPS), 174 H, 42 2B, 6 3B, 27 HR, 87 R, 93 RBI, 30 SB, 8.7 WAR
Addison Russell: 255/306/431 (737 OPS), 128 H, 44 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR 62 R, 55 RBI, 4 SB, 4.4 WAR
Kris Bryant: 270/382/459 (841 OPS), 144 H, 23 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR 93 R, 111 RBI, 17 SB, 5.0 WAR
Starlin Castro: 267/306/354 (660 OPS), 165 H, 12 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 57 R, 75 RBI, 12 SB, -1.2 WAR
Chris Coghlan: 224/301/429 (729 OPS), 99 H, 21 2B, 3 3B, 21 HR, 51 R, 36 RBI, 12 SB, 1.2 WAR
Dexter Fowler: 235/323/393 (716 OPS), 138 H, 21 2B, 9 3B, 18 HR, 102 R, 42 RBI, 33 SB, 0.6 WAR
Jorge Soler: 265/322/402 (724 OPS), 130 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 52 R, 49 RBI, 0 SB, 0.8 WAR
Jon Lester: 12-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 195 SO, 1.5 WAR
Jason Hammel: 12-6, 2.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 207 SO, 4.8 WAR
Jake Arrieta: 12-12, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 201 SO, 3.0 WAR
Kyle Hendricks: 3-6, 3.99 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 144 SO, 2.4 WAR
Tsuyoshi Wada: 0-0, 2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 146 SO, 1.5 WAR
Hector Rondon: 27 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 63 SO, 1.2 WAR
The stats that standout immediately are Rizzo’s. He is on pace for a monster season, with an OPS north of 1.000, a WAR of nearly 9, and knocking on the door of the 30-30 club. Bryant is on pace for a solid 5 WAR season with solid counting stats all around, that would likely net him Rookie of the Year honors. Despite the low batting average, Russell is also having an excellent rookie campaign. Despite having low batting averages, we can also see that Fowler and Coghlan would be decently productive. Fowler is on pace for over 100 runs scored and 33 stolen bases to go along with 18 home runs; and Coghlan would have 21 homers and 21 doubles at the current pace, which is not bad for a platoon left fielder. On the other hand, Soler’s cumulative stats do not look great and you can really see the power drop for Castro, who is on pace for just 12 doubles and 12 home runs. On the pitching side, Hammel stands out, with otherwise solid but not spectacular seasons from the rest of the rotation.
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