Where’s Theriot?

GAME 145 IN-GAME DISCUSSION THREAD [PARACHAT] CINCINNATI REDS (67-76) @ CHICAGO CUBS (71-73) WRIGLEY FIELD, 7:05 pm CDT, TV: WGN, Fox Sports Ohio
Carlos Zambrano, RHP
13-5, 3.18 ERA
180/78 K/BB, 15 HR in 195.0 IP
Eric Milton, LHP
7-14, 6.63 ERA
111/47 K/BB, 39 HR in 165.2 IP
2B Ryan Freel CF Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS #Felipe Lopez
alker LF *Adam Dunn 1B Derrek Lee CF Wily Mo Pena 3B Nomar Garciaparra 1B *Sean Casey RF *Jeromy Burnitz C Jason LaRue C Michael Barrett 3B Edwin Encarnacion LF Matt Murton RF Chris Denorfia SS #Neifi Perez P *Eric Milton P #Carlos Zambrano Just kidding about the title, we can hopefully agree that this is about the best lineup we can hope for with the current Cubs personnel. Don't forget to listen in on the Jaxx quest for the Southern League championship. It's currently 4-2 Jaxx in the top of the second, 3 of the runs coming in on a Brandon Sing homer off Dodger uber-prospect Chad Billingsley. Jae-kuk Ryu is going for the Jaxx. Go Cubs!!!

Comments

Make it 6-2 Jaxx, Matt Craig hit a 2 run shot in the top of the 2nd.

Out of all of the Jaxx starting pitchers this season (Hill,Marmol, Marshall, Nolasco, Pinto, Ryu) which one do you think makes the best pro. My feeling is it will be Nolasco. His neutral style is made for Wrigley. If he has control of his pitches he could throw to the conditions. Also he has stayed pretty healthy which seems to be a mircle for pitcher's in this organization. The only place he struggled was at AAA and he was called up there more because they needed somebody than they felt he was enterly ready for it. Anyone else have any thoughts on the matter?

That's my Papa!

If houston can get 3 from florida I believe the cubs can get in with a 14-4 record. Both the phillies and Florida have 6 games each against ATL. If atl wins 4 out of 6 Florida has to go 6-6 in the other games and Philly has to go 7-5. Florida's other games are against Philly NYM and Washington. Philly's are Florida, Cin NYM and Was. I'll make a prediction:

IF We finish 14-4 taking 5 out of 7 from Houston we will at least tie for the wild card. Unless Florida sweeps houston.

Go Cubs
Give us something good to tell our future grandkids about!!!

NCFAN, you are absolutely delusional.

I'm having problems with the WTenn feed on the net tonight since the 5th ining...but can get the Jacksonville feed.

8th inning

Jaxx 7 Suns 4

No way Macias is a better hitter than Big Z.

So Baker lifts Z for Macias. Does he read statistics that say Z's VORP is 11 something while Macias's is -3.2. WHY DOES HE KEEP GETTING AT-BATS??

I just looked it up. Z was a better hitter last year according to VORP too.

Diamond Jaxx Win!! (lead best of 5 series, 1-0)

West Tenn
4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7 9 0
Jacksonville
2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 0

looks like Michael Barrett still needs to work on rundowns between home and 3rd...

Good fundamentals from Dusty's squad? Now that's an oxymoron.

Wouldn't this be a great place to have C-Pat bunt instead of Theriot?

That is one thing that C-Pat does decently.

And as I write this, Theriot strikes out looking.

And anyone want to question Dusty's decision to bunt in front of DLee so that they could walk Lee?

Matt Murton for President!!! Let's see 2 runs scored, 1 rbi, .354 average. See Dusty, he can play 9.

Cubs Win!!! In Dusty We Trusty!!!

One game under .500.

9-3 in Sept.

Go Cubs!!

good job for the bullpen tonight.

I just looked it up. Z was a better hitter last year according to VORP too.

You are missing the concept behind VORP. A player with a better VORP isn't always the better hitter. VORP is value over a replacement, at his position. A replacement pitcher and a replacement PH are different.

Look at EqA, Z's better this year, but Macias was last season. Vorps biggest concept is value, you really don't want to look at it when you are comparing hitting only.

Well, I certainly hope, though, that we can agree that the fact that Z has a better EqA this year than one of our utility/pinch-hit bats off the bench is pathetic even if he didn't manage to top the guy last year too.

Still tired from having seen the game tonight. Was cool to see Theriot's first AB. yeah he K'ed but he really battled after getting into an 0-2 hole. "quality process, result needs work."

I know somewhere there's a chart of odds of scoring, and that the odds say it's easier to score 1 run with 1st & 0 outs than 2nd & 1 out but 1st & 2nd + 1 out is still pretty good. How often does Walker GIDP? (Hmm... vs. Nomar...)

Merigoldbowling, I don't think Dusty would know VORP from a REIT, nor does he care to know. He just looks under BA and see that Macias is hitting .275 or something. But someone should introduce Dusty to OBP, which for Macias is also about .275 and therefore awful, and his slugging percentage, which I will SWAG for Macias at about .300, which is pitiful. But Dusty, and the other bigshot managers love the "flexubility" that a guy like Macias brings to the party. I wish the party would start without him.

Murton does appear to be such an offensive force that even Dusty and Hendry can't ignore or dismiss him any longer. I don't think he can keep slugging at this rate, but he has the pedigree to be a high average, high OBP, low strike out guy the Cubs so desperately need. Yes, it would be nice if he was faster and a better defender, but beggars can't be choosers, and he looks better, and will be a lot cheaper, then some of the stiffs on this year's free agent market. Putting Murton in left leaves only two outfield spots to fill. I still prefer Hairston as a super utility guy, altough I'm sure Hairston prefers to start.

Although playing Murton and Hairston everyday rather than Patterson makes the Cubs offense significantly better, I don't think it is enough to get the Cubs to 13-4 the rest of the way, especially with inconsistent 4th and 5th starters and Dusty still experimenting with the bullpen (see yesterday's game when he brought Mitre in rather than Wuertz or Williamson when Ohman got into trouble). This Cubs team had some significant problems this year and it is not better than it's record (lack of depth in starting rotation, offense from outfield, overall defense and fundamentals, and bullpen, in that order (I know Crunch will disagree with this, but I think the bullpen problems were mostly self-inflicted by Dusty's misuse of Hawkins, his abandonment of the Dempster as closer plan, his misuse of Remlinger as a lefty specialist (although Rem might just be finished), and using Fox 3 days in a row, the last time in a blow out, where he hurt his arm).

Looking back, you have to wonder how many games the Cubs might have won back in June, when Derek Lee just owned the league, and Dusty had the out machines, Neifi and Corey, batting in front of him 1-2. Joe Sheehan's article on the Cubs posted on preminium baseballprospectus web site on this showed some very ugly statistics where the Cubs lead-off hitters had a below .300 OBP during this period.

Overall, not one of Dusty's best years. On the the other hand the Dusty effect on players who are not loss causes (see Corey) still seems to be at work as the Cubs have had great offensive years from Lee, Ramirez and Barrett and good ones from Walker, Burnitz, Hairston and Neifi! (or as good as Neifi can have one.)

cubfaningermany wrote: "and Dusty still experimenting with the bullpen (see yesterday's game when he brought Mitre in rather than Wuertz or Williamson when Ohman got into trouble)"

I'm not defending Dusty's use of the bullpen overall, but bringing in Mitre with two outs and men on first and second wasn't a terrible call - Mitre is a ground ball pitcher to the extreme and could have easily gotten a force out, and unfortunately he threw a VERY bad pitch. Wuertz might have been a good choice too, but Williamson can't be counted on in this kind of situation yet, despite his history - he had given up 3 homers in just over 10 innings this season before this game.

TRB Tribune revenues down 0.9% in August (37.69 )

Consolidated revs for the period were $428 mln, down 0.9% from last year's $432 mln. Publishing revs in August were $298 mln, 1.9% lower than last year's $303 mln. Advertising revs increased 0.6% to $234 mln. Total advertising inches were down 4.5%, while preprint pieces increased 0.9%.

Here's an idea Tribsters...instead of working on your goal of a .500 record (snooze city) , put a winning ballclub on the field and you'll show some revenue growth in August.

Baseball America has an interview with Jeff Franceur of the Braves and he was asked who he's faced in the minors that throw better than some of the pitchers he's faced at the major league level.

He named 3 pitchers:

1) Ricky Nolasco, raved about his slider
2) Rich Hill
3) Bobby Jenks, now with the WSox

Cubster-
The Cubs are such a small part of the overall Tribune Company. Even if the Cubs won the WS their overall bottom line would barely move. That is aprt of the problem of a media conglomerate owning a sports team.

Last year the Tribune Company had 5.726 BILLION in sales. Do you think the "ONLY" $300 million or so that the Cubs bring in is making a big dent in their bottom line?

hey, im a big murton fan, too...but lets at least realize where he's putting the bat on the ball.

he's putting almost all of his good hits into RF.

he did have a hell of a homer to LF a few games ago that pretty much solidified his place in the minds of many.

in the 10th he put a ball into LF, though not exactly strong...he did a decent job on the pitch.

i dont think anyone's had a problem with how murton handles lefties or how he handles stuff middle/outside.

The Cup is Half Full:

I would like to THANK BARRY BONDS for not returning until after the Cubs took 3 out of 4 from the Giants!

The Cup is Half Full:

We're now entering a period where teams will be competing exclusively within their division.

The Cubs have moved into 5th place in the wildcard race behind Florida, Houston, Philadelphia, and Washington.

With a win today, the Cubs will continue their plodding pace towards a projected 83-79 record.

The wildcard winner is now projecting at 87-75.

BUT both Houston and Florida, the leaders, have .500 winning percentages within their own division this year while Philadelphia and and Washington have losing records.

If Houston and Florida continue their flat intra-division performance, the wildcard could be won (or tied) with 85 wins.

So, believe it or not, the Cubs are still in the wildcard race and will likely remain there until they lose 5 games or somebody else wins 86.

11 vs stl/hou...ow.

almost too stacked of a schedule vs. houston...not in tallent, but in amount of games the new scheduling crew gave chc/hou to close out the year. 7 games in 10 days vs. houston. hell of a way to end the season.

Houston is choking, not the Cubs. The Cubs are out of it, remember?

Advantage---> Cubs.

"So, believe it or not, the Cubs are still in the wildcard race"

Puff Puff Pass...

"So, believe it or not, the Cubs are still in the wildcard race"

Puff Puff Pass...

Homer Blanco is getting better at the plate and has all season had a cannon for an arm and superb defensive skills. He should start the majority of games.

"You are missing the concept behind VORP. A player with a better VORP isn't always the better hitter. VORP is value over a replacement, at his position. A replacement pitcher and a replacement PH are different."

I'm not so sure about that - I thought VORP was created with the idea of comparing players at different positions and in different years - it's all normalized. Different leagues and parks shouldn't matter either.

Recent comments

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  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that would have jumped out more.

    crunch 3 min 17 sec ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 50 min 53 sec ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 1 hour 36 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 3 hours 23 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 3 hours 23 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 3 hours 30 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 4 hours 6 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 7 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 10 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 4 hours 13 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 13 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 4 hours 18 min ago view
  • i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.

    the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.

    some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.

    crunch 4 hours 30 min ago view
  • I read it as him saying it's not really that much of a concern and that the one time it really cost Lester, vs. K.C., was an anomaly.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 36 min ago view
  • if jeff says it, it's cool...when i say it, it's straight from the mouth of hitler.

    aside from the lack of jeff touching on the insane leads runners take and lester's inability to throw if he's fielding, this is a lot of what i've said about the issue.

    exploitable, needs his own personal catcher to control his shortcomings, relies on his ability to get outs along with his personal catcher keeping runners in check before things become further exploited...

    crunch 4 hours 38 min ago view
  • That would be Rice Krispy Treat

    The E-Man 5 hours 56 min ago view