The World’s Most Useless Playoff Predictor

I trotted out my playoff prediction process last year at my old site. Before we begin, let me point out that picking names out of a hat or some sort of other randomness would be just as successful. My record last year in the first round, well my original picks went 3-1, but I discovered the Yanks led the league in come from behind victories (See Rule #2), which would have changed my one pick and I would have went 4-0. Onto The Rules: #1) Find the teams that have been playing well for longer than a week....a good 2 month stretch or longer is nice. Records of the playoff teams since August 1st: Yankees (39-20), Angels (35-22), White Sox (31-28), Red Sox (36-22) Astros (32-25), Cardinals (34-24), Padres (31-26), Braves (29-28) Edge to the Yanks, Red Sox and Cardinals. #2) Find teams that have a knack for coming from behind (2002 - Angels, 2003 - Marlins, 2004 - Boston, 2005 - Cardinals) I wish I could find a team stat for come from behind victories but I recall the Cardinals coming back in a lot of games and pullling off a few miraculous victories. The Yanks as well and the White Sox had some miracle victories early on in the season. #3) 2 dominant starters on staff equals trouble for other team. And by dominant, I mean pitchers who you feel lucky that you even managed contact off of. Sure the White Sox have had a good pitching staff all year, but depth isn't nearly as important as top-level starters. And none of their pitchers are all that frightening in my opinion, same goes for the Cardinals. Astros have the edge here, along with the Braves. No one in the AL really has 2 dominant starters in my opinion, all settling for just one. (White Sox - maybe Garcia, Red Sox - Schilling, Yankees - Johnson, Angels - maybe Colon, Lackey has been making his case this year). #4) Aggressive managing is better than the same old thing works managing. It's the playoffs folks, (duh)! The same rules don't apply. Starters can be used as relievers, you can pinch-hit or run for catchers even if you don't have another backup, etc, etc. Scioscia and Torre get the edge in the AL, just cause we don't know how Guillen will play it yet. I didn't really get a sense of how much Francona understood the do or die mentatlity last year. In the NL, LaRussa and Cox seem set in their ways. I'm not sure about Bochy. Garner is aggressive, stupid, but aggressive. #5) Never go for a team with a bad defense particularly up the middle (CF, 2b, SS & C) Team Defensive Efficiency: White Sox (2nd) Houston (4th) Cardinals 6th) Angels (9th) Braves (19th) Padres (21st) Yankees (22nd) Red Sox (23rd) Looking at the teams up the middle, the Yanks are certainly nothing special, especially if Bernie is patrolling center everyday. Cano and Jeter are lackluster as well. The White Sox and Angels are both exceptional though. In the NL, Cards have been other-wordly. The Braves rank a lot lower in defensive efficiency then I would have expected, cause Giles, Furcal and Jones are all top-notch. Surprised to see the Astros up there. #6) And of course there is the ex-Cub factor: Ruz covered this on the front page of all-baseball.com To sum up, Yanks and Cards are in the biggest trouble, with the White Sox, Astros and Angles all only housing one. Thr Braves are the only other team with less than the magical three. It's a series of tradeoffs as always, and this year there's just not one team that really seems to have all their bases covered. At the moment I'm leaning towards the Braves and Angels, but that could change by the end of this article: Here's one man's playoff predictions: Cardinals vs. Padres Oh, how fun would it be if the Padres won this series? Talk about a slap in the face of the current playoff system. And with Jake Peavy potentially getting 2 starts in the series, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. And if the Padres can keep the games close early, they have a relatively lights out bullpen. Plus you have Tony LaRussa over-managing at every possible moment. All these crazy reasons to pick the Padres... But I don't see it happening, the Padres are just happy to be here, the Cards have something to prove: Prediction: Cards over Padres in 4 Astros vs. Braves The Astros certainly have cornered the market on dominating pitching, but Hudson and Smoltz aren't chopped liver. Smoltz's shoulder may be the key as he's been experiencing some soreness lately. But I like the Braves this series, their lineup is tremendously better and the law of averages say the Braves have to escape the first round one of these days. Prediction: Braves over Astros in 5 Yankees vs. Angels I really want to pick the Angels here as they seemed to have had the Yanks number for years now. But the Yanks are the uber-hot team entering the playoffs and the Angels offense is pretty darn pathetic. But there is the ex-Cub factor which should not be taken lightly. Plus Scioscia will constantly put pressure on the Yanks defense by taking extra bases and stealing at every opportunity. Something the Yanks handled horribly in the 2002 ALDS and this team's defense doesn't look much better. Tough, tough call. But hard to pick a team that is going to expect Shawn Chacon or Chien-Ming Wang to have to win a game. In the end, I know the Angels won't beat themselves, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks do. Prediction: Angels over Yanks in 5 (and I'm horribly biased towards the Angels) Red Sox vs. White Sox Sox win, Sox win!!! Well one of them has too and this is even a tougher series to call then the Angels/Yanks. Schilling isn't going to start until Game 4 which spells trouble in mind. This Red Sox team doesn't seem to have the same fire that last year's team had, just ask Schilling. The White Sox avoided that late-season collapse though and they can't be feeling too confident either. Tough call, go with the defense and better pitching. But wait, El Papi and Manny versus Who? Paul Konerko? God I don't know... Prediction: White Sox over Red Sox in 5, wait Red Sox over White Sox in 5, wait Sox in 5. I dunno. I have to pick, right? The ex-Cub factor gets the nod, White Sox in 5. NLCS: Braves over Cardinals in 7 ALCS: Angels over White Sox in 5 World Series: Angels over Braves in 7 I don't have a good feeling about any of theses series other than the Cards over the Padres. That being the case, I'm going with the tried-and-true system of the ex-Cub factor. It's all a bunch of subjective phooey anyway. That's my call at the moment and I'm fairly certain I'll be more wrong than right this year.

Comments

Since we're talking Useless Playoff Predictors...

I always pay attention to the team roster with the most ex-Cubs.

Fewest ex-Cubs is best.

This might vary if the playoff roster cuts some ex-Cub like Hollandsworth or Jeremi Gonzalez as I couldn't find the final roster cuts.

NL
Cardinals (3): Julian Taveras, Ray King, Mark Grudzielanek
Padres:(2): Damian Jackson, Eric Young
Braves: (2): Kyle Farnsworth, Todd Hollandsworth
Astros (1): Jose Vizcaino

Ex-Cub Factor Predicts: Astros

AL
Yankees(4): Tom Gordon, Mark Bellhorn, Matt Lawton, Tony Womack
Redsox (3): Matt Clement, Bill Mueller, Jeremy Gonzalez
Whitesox (2): Ross Gload, Jon Garland
Angels (1): Josh Paul

Ex-Cub Factor Predicts: Angels

World Series: Angels (Vizcaino was a Cub longer than Josh Paul)

The Cardinals bullpen has looked downright awful, of course so did Jake Peavy.

Winning run up to bat now, bases juiced, 2 outs

Rob G:
"Winning run up to bat now, bases juiced, 2 outs"

It was only the go ahead run, as the Padres were on the road amd the Cards has last ups.

Bringing in your closer with a 6 run lead and 1 out?? WOW!!

Matt Clement puts reality into the ex-Cub factor.

Ugly first inning for him, 2 hit batsmen, Pods stealing 3B on him then tips his slider to Rowand with his arm angle...then the final meltdown with a 3 run HR

WSox 5 RSox 0, end of 1

Your a genius Manny, thanks for correcting me! I completely forgot how baseball worked.

No problem Rob G., anytime....

Rob,

I was wondering with the Dodgers firing Tracy is McCourt the kind of owner who would force a manager on Depo (Baker or Herisher) if he thought it was good for the bottom line or is this going to be completly Depo's call which means Ron Washington is going to get it.

I answered your question in the other thread chifan.

To sum up I don't know who they're going after, but I promise you it isn't Dusty Baker. Depo will get to hire his own guy. whoever that may be.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think we should all jump on the White Sox bandwagon (no, don't stop reading just yet)... we should jump on for this playoff ride and hope against hope that they win the World Series.

Think of the pressure that would put on the Cubs organization to put a winner on the field.

*sigh*

nohit, we should all jump on the White Sox bandwagon, but only because it'll annoy Sox fans.

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  • Even from an on-field perspective, Torres is a 19-year-old beating up High-A pitching who also plays a great SS. Even if he never develops a legit MLB power stroke, he's still an obvious 4-tool guy with a very high floor. Sucks to trade away his next 6-8 years for a closer, albeit a great one.

    John Beasley 56 min 45 sec ago view
  • "Like the Chapman deal for Cubs from on-field POV, wish I didn't now have to feel lousy following an otherwise likable Cubs team." @jonahkeri

    pretty much sums up my feelings

    Rob G. 7 hours 6 min ago view
  • You mean Yankees?

    QuietMan 7 hours 9 min ago view
  • Cards lose!

    billybucks 7 hours 17 min ago view
  • You do have a point. The TheoJed certainly would need to address this in a transparent way. Milton Bradley was no help to the team.

    The E-Man 7 hours 29 min ago view
  • FWIW, the Cubs would get a compensation draft pick between the 1st & 2nd rounds (around #35) if they extend a Qualifying Offer to Chapman post-2016 (probably about $17M), Chapman declines, and then he signs with another MLB club before next year's draft. 

    Arizona Phil 7 hours 35 min ago view
  • This all assumes Chapman doesn't want to be a free agent and possibly sign a $20MM+/year deal. We all know free agents get overpaid, sometimes dramatically (Hello, JayHey!). Not sure why Chapman would agree to the extension. If i'm is agent, I would tell him I could get I'm a $100M deal as a FA.

    billybucks 7 hours 42 min ago view
  • I'll root for the uniform and imagine it's left-handed Rod Beck or Randy Myers out there I suppose.

    Rob G. 8 hours 6 min ago view
  • Amen to this. I guess it's gonna happen and I'm gonna have to suck it up but I really despise domestic abusers with every bone in my body and cannot stand them on any team I root for.

    johann 8 hours 14 min ago view
  • I just prefer they don't  acquire players that choke their wives/girlfriends.

    Rob G. 8 hours 18 min ago view
  • So you'd rather go with Blown Save guy, when you can trade a prospect who is blocked for one piece that could get you over the top to the Big Dance? That is pretty old thinking. This is not a move that they cannot recover from if it goes south. But the upside is potentially historic.

    The E-Man 8 hours 27 min ago view
  • I'd prefer it not happen too.

    Rob G. 8 hours 54 min ago view
  • it's a hell of a blockbuster, but it's for a guy who pitches 1/3rd of a season at an extreme premium considering the guy being traded and if the early extension $$$ rumors are true.

    it's one of those things that is bringing a guy at the top his game, but something is nagging me that this trade piece could have been put to better use.

    a huge part of me is all "hell yeah, top of the line producer"...another part of me is "hmm, that for that?"

    crunch 8 hours 58 min ago view
  • Still don't want. Kinda hope they can't work out the extension.

    Charlie 9 hours 9 min ago view
  • obviously not, and I'm sure they did their homework...just hope they have some better answers than the Yankees

    Rob G. 9 hours 9 min ago view
  • Chapman 12+ Career WAR. Currently 4.7:1 k-BB. With Rondon/Chapman/Strop/Nathan/Montgomery/Wood...Its the best pen I can recall other than Sutter or Lee Smith handling things themselves.

    Its gonna suck if he gets injured, and it appears he's not the greatest of characters.

    But, he'll have another Cuban to hang out with on the team.

    The E-Man 9 hours 31 min ago view