Free Agent Frenzy

MLB.com is sponsoring another year of Free Agent Frenzy. They give you a list of the top 15 free agents in their opinion and you rank them by team and by confidence level. Winner gets free opening day tickets. Try to use the comments to ONLY post your own picks. (So don't go looking at the comments and then posting your picks, please do that first) Once all the players on the list sign, I'll try and calculate a winner. I'll figure out a prize later. Signing period begins tomorrow so get your picks in quick!!! You can view mine after the jump:
PlayerTeamConfidence Level
A.J. BurnettSeattle Mariners6
Johnny DamonBoston Red Sox4
Kyle FarnsworthAtlanta Braves7
Rafael FurcalChicago Cubs15
Nomar GarciaparraLA Dodgers11
Brian GilesSt. Louis Cardinals12
Jacque JonesSan Diego Padres5
Paul KonerkoChicago White Sox13
Kevin MillwoodBaltimore Orioles8
Bengie MolinaNY Mets14
Matt MorrisLA Dodgers3
Mike PiazzaDetroit Tigers2
B.J. RyanNY Yanks9
Billy WagnerNY Mets7
Preston WilsonArizona D'Backs1
Some quick reasonings: Burnett: Too many teams interested, tough call at the moment, no state tax, big ballpark favors Seattle Damon: Doesn't sound like anyone really wants him for such a highly touted guy, does it? Farnsworth: So begins the list of players I have no idea where they end up Furcal: I'm an optimist by nature Nomar: Dodgers always seemed like the logical landing place for him Giles: Aargh!!! Jones: Just based off some rumors Konerko: Too many good feelings after the Series to leave Millwood: Reunited with Mazzone? Molina: Mets really want him, he's got family there, sounds perfect Morris: Dodgers got some cash this off-season just no one to spend it for them Piazza: Absolutely no idea other than it'll be an AL team Ryan: What the Yanks want, the Yanks pay for Wagner: Toss-up between Phils & Mets, tough call Wilson: No idea how he got on this list, sounds like one of those guys the Pirates take a waiver on in Feb, but I'm drawing a blank on the D'Backs cf
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Man this is NOT easy, but here it goes:

AJ Burnett - Boston Red Sox - 3
Johnny Damon - Boston Red Sox - 6
Kyle Farnsworth - Atlanta Braves - 11
Rafael Furcal - Chicago Cubs - 9
Nomar Garciaparra - LA Dodgers - 10
Brian Giles - SD Padres - 7
Jacque Jones - Colorado Rockies - 2
Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox - 15
Kevin Milwood - Baltimore Orioles - 8
Bengie Molina - NY Mets - 14
Matt Morris - Texas Rangers - 5
Mike Piazza - Baltimore Orioles - 4
BJ Ryan - NY Yankees - 12
Billy Wagner - Philadelphia Phillies - 13
Preston Wilson - SD Padres - 1

A.J. Burnett Baltimore 10
Johnny Damon Boston 15
Kyle Farnsworth Baltimore 6
Rafael Furcal Cubs 14
Nomar Garciaparra Dodgers 7
Brian Giles Cardinals 11
Jacque Jones Yankees 1
Paul Konerko Angels 9
Kevin Millwood Red Sox 8
Bengie Molina Astros 2
Matt Morris Tigers 5
Mike Piazza Rangers 4
B.J. Ryan Yankees 13
Billy Wagner Mets 12
Preston Wilson Tigers 3

A.J. Burnett They've been looking to add pitching for 5 years it seems
Johnny Damon I don't see anyone else taking on him.
Kyle Farnsworth I can't seem him as a success in NYC and I don't think the Braves can afford him.
Rafael Furcal
Nomar Garciaparra With Izturis out until midseason he's perfect because he could switch to 3B if Cesar can play SS.
Brian Giles Yeah this one sucks
Jacque Jones I really have no idea. His market will be created after Giles, Damon and a few others sign.
Paul Konerko
Kevin Millwood
Bengie Molina I think Ausmus will take the san diego spot
Matt Morris
Mike Piazza
B.J. Ryan
Billy Wagner
Preston Wilson Who knows...

Burnett SEA 4
Damon BOS 15
Farnsworth ARI 10
Furcal CHC 14
Nomar LAD 1
Giles SEA 3
Jones SD 11
Konerko CHI 12
Millwood CLE 8
Molina NYM 9
Morris BAL 6
Piazza BAL 5
Ryan NYY 7
Wagner NYM 13
Wilson STL 2

Burnett Texas 2
Damon Boston 13
Farnsworth San Diego 3
Furcal Chicago Cubs 15
Garciaparra LA Dodgers 6
Giles St Louis 12
Jones Toronto 7
Konerko Chicago White Sox 11
Milwood Seattle 5
Morris San Diego 4
Piazza Baltimore 9
Ryan NY Yankees 10
Wagner NY Mets 14
Wilson Seattle 1

After Piazza I didn't really have faith in any of them- just a crap-shoot.

A.J. Burnett DET 5
Johnny Damon BOS 12
Kyle Farnsworth BAL 6
Rafael Furcal CHC 14
Nomar Garciaparra LAD 9
Brian Giles STL 13
Jacque Jones NYY 4
Paul Konerko CWS 15
Kevin Millwood BAL 7
Bengie Molina NYM 10
Matt Morris CLE 3
Mike Piazza LAA 2
B.J. Ryan NYM 8
Billy Wagner PHI 11
Preston Wilson SDP 1

A.J. Burnett DET 5(Taken to the same restaurant that got Troy Percival to sign in Motown)
Johnny Damon BOS 12(Caveman has too many flaws to go elsewhere)
Kyle Farnsworth BAL 6(Mazzone fixer upper)
Rafael Furcal CHC 14 (our season hangs on this one)
Nomar Garciaparra LAD 9 (best fit in LA at this point)
Brian Giles STL 13 (typical, he falls in the Cards lap)
Jacque Jones NYY 4 (Yanks need a CF and its not Damon)
Paul Konerko CWS15 (Hometown discount?)
Kevin Millwood BAL 7 (Mazzone is the reason)
Bengie Molina NYM 10 (the post Piazza era begins)
Matt Morris CLE 3 (Millwoods replacement on a good team)
Mike Piazza LAA 2 (A guess but the Angels like to spend and Piazza is a hero in LA)
B.J. Ryan NYM 8 (Mets want a lefty reliever but this is a mild surprise over the Yanks)
Billy Wagner PHI 11 (Pat Gillick gets his man)
Preston Wilson SDP (Turkey day Tryptophan hangover)

In order of Confidence:

Damon - Red Sox, 15
Konerko - White Sox, 14
Furcal - Cubs, 13
Ryan - Red Sox, 12
Millwood - Cleveland, 11
Farnsworth - Braves, 10
Wagner - Mets, 9
Molina - Mets, 8
Jones - Padres, 7
Burnett - Seattle, 6
Giles - St. Louis, 5
Nomar - Angels, 4
Morris - Nationals, 3
Piazza - Angels, 2
Wilson - St. Louis, 1

HEY GUYS, I THINK IT'S EASIER TO READ WHEN YOU ORDER THEM BY YOUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

Furcal CHC 15
Damon BOS 14
Ryan NYY 13
Millwood NYY 12
Farns Atl 11
Giles Stl 10
Konerko LAD 9
Piazza NYY 8
Nomar CHC 7
Wagner Phil 6
Morris NYM 5
Molina LAA 4
Jones Col 3
P Wilson Nym 2
AJ Burnett CHC 1

Glad I didn't put my kids college fund on this..........

Burnett TOR 7
Damon BOS 15
Farnsworth ATL 12
Furcal CHC 11
Garciaparra LAD 5
Giles STL 10
Jones SDP 3
Konerko LAA 14
Millwood BAL 8
Molina NYM 13
Morris SEA 1
Piazza OAK 2
Ryan TOR 4
Wagner NYM 9
Wilson NYY 6

Furcal - Cubs 15
Damon - Boston 14
Molina - Angels 13
BJ Ryan - Yanks 12
Burnett - Tornoto 11
Giles - St. Louis 10
Nomar - Dodgers 9
Konerko - Angels 8
Wagner - Mets 7
J.Jones - San Diego 6
Milwood - St. Louis 5
Farnsworth - Baltimore 4
Morris - Angels 3
Piazza - Minnesota 2
P.Wilson - Cubs 1

Nomar Garciaparra Dodgers 15
A.J. Burnett Texas 14
Johnny Damon Boston 13
Brian Giles Cardinals 12
Paul Konerko Sox 11
Jacque Jones Yankees 10
Billy Wagner Phils 9
Bengie Molina Astros 8
Kevin Millwood Texas 7
B.J. Ryan Red Sox 6
Matt Morris Blue Jays 5
Kyle Farnsworth Giants 4
Mike Piazza Mariners 3
Preston Wilson Cubs 2
Rafael Furcal Braves 1

Furcal - CHC 15
Damon - BOS 14
Konerko - CWS 13
Molina - NYM 12
Jones - SD 11
Nomar - LAD 10
Burnett - SEA 9
Giles - STL 8
Farnsworth - BAL 7
Ryan - NYY 6
Millwood - CLE 5
Morris - STL 4
Wagner - CHC 3
Piazza - LAA 2
Wilson - WSH 1

who knows

Steve Phillips (ESPN) predicts Furcal and Giles to the Cubs.

Burnett - Boston - 13
Damon - Boston - 8
Farnsworth - Arizona - 5
Furcal - Chicago Cubs - 11
Garciaparra - Dodgers - 3
Giles - Houston - 6
Jones - Yankees - 10
Konerko - White Sox - 12
Millwood - Yankees - 9
Molina - Angels - 7
Morris - Cardinals - 15
Piazza - Baltimore - 2
Ryan - Atlanta - 14
Wagner - Boston - 4
Wilson - Colorado - 1

Konerko - White Sox - 15
Damon - Red Sox - 14
Burnett - Red Sox - 13
Furcal - Cubs - 12
Ryan - Yankees - 11
Millwood - Yankees - 10
Morris - Mariners - 9
Wagner - Mets - 8
Molina - Angels - 7
Jones - Astros - 6
Garciaparra - Dodgers - 5
Piazza - Baltimore - 4
Farnsworth - Atlanta - 3
Giles - Cubs - 2
Wilson - Cardinals - 1

I really don't see why Giles is most likely going to the Cardinals. Surely the Cubs have the money to outbid the Cards if they wanted to.

Rafael Furcal - CUBS - 15
Johnny Damon - RED SOX - 14
Nomar Garciaparra - DODGERS - 13
Mike Piazza - ANGELS - 12
Paul Konerko - WHITE SOX - 11
Kyle Farnsworth - BRAVES - 10
Brian Glies - CARDINALS - 9
B. J. Ryan - YANKEES - 8
Kevin Millwood - ORIOLES - 7
Billy Wagner - RED SOX - 6
Benjie Molina - MARINERS - 5
A. J. Burnett - RANGERS - 4
Matt Morris - BLUE JAYS - 3
Jacque Jones - PIRATES - 2
Preston Wilson - YANKEES - 1

These aren't my predictions, they are those of Steve Phillips, the guy doing those corny, gimmicky GM press conference simulations on SportsCenter. He has a page where he predicts where the top 50 free agents will go (but he doesn't put confidence levels on them). I post them here for the interest of putting up what an "expert" and ex-GM thinks will happen. I certainly like what he has the Cubs doing!

AJ Burnett - Toronto Blue Jays
Johnny Damon - Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth - Atlanta Braves
Rafael Furcal - Chicago Cubs
Nomar Garciaparra - LA Dodgers
Brian Giles - Chicago Cubs
Jacque Jones - Detriot Tigers
Paul Konerko - Boston Red Sox
Kevin Milwood - Cleveland Indians
Bengie Molina - San Diego Padres
Matt Morris - Baltimore Orioles
Mike Piazza - Somewhere in CA Angels
BJ Ryan - NY Mets
Billy Wagner - Philadelphia Phillies
Preston Wilson - Baltimore Orioles

15 Furcal Cubs
14 Molina Mets
13 Nomar Dodgers
12 Konerko White Sox
11 Ryan Yankees
10 Damon Red Sox
9 Wagner Phillies
8 Giles Cards
7 Jones Padres
6 Morris Mariners
5 Burnett Jays
4 Wilson Astros
3 Piazza Jays
2 Farns Red Sox
1 Millwood Rangers

And now my predictions:

AJ Burnett - Baltimore Orioles - 8
Johnny Damon - Boston Red Sox - 14
Kyle Farnsworth - New York Yankees -
Rafael Furcal - Chicago Cubs - 15
Nomar Garciaparra - LA Angels - 10
Brian Giles - Chicago Cubs - 7
Jacque Jones - Philadelphia Phillies - 1
Paul Konerko - Boston Red Sox - 13
Kevin Milwood - Cleveland Indians - 2
Bengie Molina - San Diego Padres -
Matt Morris - Seattle Mariners - 4
Mike Piazza - Seattle Mariners - 3
BJ Ryan - NY Yankees - 12
Billy Wagner - NY Mets - 11
Preston Wilson - Baltimore Orioles - 9

I thought about using a random number generator to do this, then got lazy and used my best guess instead.

um... make Farnsworth to the Yanks 5 and Molina to the Padres 6.

Dammit Shawn you did not assign a number to Bengie Molina or Kyle Farnsworth. I need to know!

A.J.†Burnett ††††FLA Yankees 9
Johnny†Damon ††††BOS Boston 15
Kyle†Farnsworth ††††ATL Atlanta 7
Rafael†Furcal ††††ATL Cubs 12
Nomar†Garciaparra CHC Dodgers 5
Brian†Giles ††††SD Cubs 10
Jacque†Jones ††††MIN Twins 4
Paul†Konerko ††††CWS White Sox 13
Kevin†Millwood ††††CLE Cleveland 8
Bengie†Molina ††††LAA LAAoA 2
Matt†Morris ††††STL Cards 14
Mike†Piazza ††††NYM LAAoA 6
B.J.†Ryan ††††BAL Cubs 3
Billy†Wagner ††††PHI Phillies 11
Preston†Wilson ††††WSH Toronto 1

A.J. Burnett - Boston 3
Johnny Damon - Boston 11
Kyle Farnsworth - Braves - 6
Rafael Furcal - Cubs 15
Nomar Garciaparra - Dodgers 9
Brian Giles - Cardinals 14
Jacque Jones - Padres - 7
Paul Konerko - White Sox 10
Kevin Millwood - Baltimore 4
Bengie Molina - Mets - 8
Matt Morris - Seattle - 2
Mike Piazza - Baltimore - 5
B.J. Ryan - Mets - 12
Billy Wagner - Philly - 13
Preston Wilson - Arizona - 1

Player Team Confidence Level
A.J. Burnett, Angels
Johnny Damon, Orioles
Kyle Farnsworth, Seattle
Rafael Furcal, Mets
Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
Brian Giles, Cardinals
Jacque Jones, Cardinals
Paul Konerko, White Sox
Kevin Millwood, Indians
Bengie Molina, Angels
Matt Morris, Dodgers
Mike Piazza, Rangers
B.J. Ryan, Yankees
Billy Wagner, Rangers
Preston Wilson, Tigers

can we get a confidence level, cubfan?

A.J. Burnett, Angels 4
Johnny Damon, Orioles 1
Kyle Farnsworth, Seattle 3
Rafael Furcal, Mets 9
Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers 10
Brian Giles, Cardinals 14
Jacque Jones, Cardinals 8
Paul Konerko, White Sox 13
Kevin Millwood, Indians 12
Bengie Molina, Angels 15
Matt Morris, Dodgers 11
Mike Piazza, Rangers 5
B.J. Ryan, Yankees 2
Billy Wagner, Rangers 7
Preston Wilson, Tigers 6

Damon- Red Sox 15
Konerko-White Sox 14
Wagner -Phillie 13
Ryan- Yankees 12
Farnsworth Braves 11
Millwood -Indians 10
Molina -Mets 9
Piazza- Angels 8
Burnett Red Sox 7
Furcal Cubs-6
Morris-Dodgers 5
Giles-Padres 4
Nomar-Angels 3
Jones-Cubs 2
Wilson- Baltimore 1

So Cubfan, your take on this is that the Cubs come away with nobody. I would put my confidence level on that one at 1.

A.J. Burnett Blue Jays 8
Johnny Damon Red Sox 11
Kyle Farnsworth Red Sox 3
Rafael Furcal Cubs 9
Nomar Garciaparra Dodgers 14
Brian Giles Cardinals 12
Jacque Jones Pirates 6
Paul Konerko White Sox 15
Kevin Millwood Orioles 7
Bengie Molina Mets 5
Matt Morris Cardinals 2
Mike Piazza Angels 4
B.J. Ryan Yankees 13
Billy Wagner Mets 10
Preston Wilson Nationals 1

konerko angels 15
nomar dodgers 14
burnett orioles 13
furcal cubs 12
ryan yankees 11
wagner phillies 10
millwood orioles 9
farnsworth braves 8
damon redsox 7
giles cardinals 6
jones yankees 5
molina mets 4
wilson redsox 3
morris indians 2
piazza whitesox 1

I'm really suprised how many people have Burnett going to the Jays.

I also don't think it's more readable doing it by descending confidence interval. That makes me use the wheel on my mouse about 5 times as much.

Player Team Confidence Level
A.J. Burnett Toronto 8
Johnny Damon Boston Red Sox 14
Kyle Farnsworth Atlanta Braves 4
Rafael Furcal Chicago Cubs 9
Nomar Garciaparra LA Dodgers 15
Brian Giles St. Louis Cardinals 13
Jacque Jones Padres 3
Paul Konerko Chicago White Sox 12
Kevin Millwood Cleveland 10
Bengie Molina Baltimore 7
Matt Morris Detriot 2
Mike Piazza Detroit Tigers 5
B.J. Ryan NY Mets 6
Billy Wagner Phillies 11
Preston Wilson Baltimore 1

I didn't know if the confedience level was supoosed to be higher or lower the more connfedient. I did closer to one the more confedient I'm.

UPDATE Fixed to reflect proper confidence level order

it's the other way around, cubsfan4ever1, 15 means you're most confident that the player will end up there, 1 is the least confident. I'm going to modify your post to take that into account, if you don't mind.

I think Hendry (along with most other GM's) will attempt to fill their holes they seek to fill through trades and not free agency. When Mike Piazza and Kyle Farnsworth are touted as two of the top 15 free agents...can you say the market is rather lame this year?

Who cares if the Cubs pick up anybody on this list?

Furcal will go for the money and the Cubs will NEVER outbid anyone. The Mets want him...they will get him.

The Cubs will not get any of the top talent in this years pool because they either don't need them (Konerko) or the price will be too high to experiement with questionable talent OR the price will be way too high and too long for someone worth having that the Cubs will pass. They will make moves picking up players you haven't heard a great deal about from teams willing to make a trade.

15- Konerko - Wsox
14- Damon - Rsox
13- Wagner - Mets
12- Molina - Mets
11- Nomar - Dodgers
10- Ryan - Yanks
9- Millwood - Indians
8- Jones - Padres
7- Burnett - Blue Jays
6- Furcal - Braves
5- Wilson - Royals
4- Giles - Cards
3- Farnsworth - Yanks
2- Morris - Cards
1- Piazza - Angels

Kyle Farnsworth St louis
Bengie Molina Mets
Rafael furcal Cubs
Paul konerko White sox
Bj ryan Yanks
Billy wagner Mets
Nomar garciaparra Dodgers
Brian giles Yanks
Preston Wilson Marlins
Aj burnett Seattle
Matt morris Tigers
Kevin millwood Baltimore
Jacque jones san diego
Mike piazza Angels
Johnny damon Boston

15--StL likes fireballers in the pen, and call it a hunch
14--the mets want him, omar writes big checks
13--we're his only real suitor besides Atl, and we'll pay him more
12--ozzie guillen, although not necessarily his decision, is ready to trade the rest of the team to keep him
11--cash-man writes big checks, too
10--didn't rate this one higher cause philly may keep him, but I doubt it
9--it just fits
8--slightly overpriced, slightly aging player whose name most fans have heard of? this one's a gimme
7--cheap, aging player to platoon/backup their prospect once they get rid of pierre to us
6--they like him, he likes seattle
5--they won't get aj
4--bal needs pitching too
3--pads want a decent outfielder, this is their best bet
2--back to LA
1--probably stays, but this one's really up in the air

these are my best not-really-educated guesses, please criticize as applicable

A.J. Burnett SEA Select Confidence 5
(Seattle, I guess)
Johnny Damon BOS Select Confidence 12
(Boston icon)
Kyle Farnsworth ATL Select Confidence 4
(Proved himself in Atlanta)
Rafael Furcal ATL Select Confidence 14
(Loves Atlanta, should be back)
Nomar GarciaparraLAD Select Confidence 8
(Cubs don't need him, Dodgers do)
Brian Giles STL Select Confidence 11
(Will help bring chamionship to St. Louis)
Jacque Jones NYY Select Confidence 10
(Yankees want em, Yankees got em)
Paul Konerko CWS Select Confidence 15
(Look at his hand, look at his contract)
Kevin Millwood NYY Select Confidence 7
(Rich boy needs better pitchers)
Bengie Molina NYM Select Confidence 13
(Nueva York ama a espaÒoles)
Matt Morris STL Select Confidence 3
(A must for the Cards)
Mike Piazza LAA Select Confidence 6
(Southern Cal loves Piazza)
B.J. Ryan BOS Select Confidence 2
(Boston needs a HEALTHY closer)
Billy Wagner NYM Select Confidence 9
(Omar's top priority)
Preston Wilson SDP Select Confidence 1
(Friars are a shot in the dark)

*No Furcal means Atlanta's streak will end.*
*Cubs will only compete for Wild Card*
*If Mets get Manny, Mets win World Series*
*Yankees win AL East*

Free agent game huh?
Here it goes

Damon Bos 15
Burnett Tor 14
Ryan NYY 13
Furcal Chic 12
Nomar LaD 11
Korenko ChiW 10
Thomas BAL 9
Farnsworth Bal 8
Piazza Min 7
Wagner NYM 6
Morris Atl 5
Millwood Chic 4(I hope)
Wilson Was 3
B. Molina NYM 2
B. Giles Stl. 1

JMHo

scooter

anyone gonna keep track and grade this stuff? It will be interesting how we do.

scooter

I will, I'll keep the comments open until the first free agent on the list signs. once they all sign, I'll calculate a winner.

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