Competitive Balance

It's a shame that franchise (KC Royals) can't be competitive. In the 70s and 80s, they had one of the best fan bases in baseball relative to population. The economics of the game have made thriving in KC/Pittsburgh nearly impossible. It's things like that that make me back off of my Republican economic beliefs and start to think the Communists or at least the socialists had a decent idea. KC and Pittsburgh are great small cities with great sports fans. They deserve better than the snot with bats that they are forced to root for. The Cubs bring most of their problems on themselves, as they have the resources to do better. But the Royals and Pirates in particular are truly handicapped. - "X" in TCR, Friday 12-23-05. X is spot-on correct, folks. It will likely be a long, long time before we see the Pittsburgh Pirates or Kansas City Royals in the World Series again, and that is a shame. Which is why from time to time there have been discussions about improving "competietive balance" in MLB. The MLBPA will never accept a NBA or NFL-style salary cap, and the mechanism of free-agency and free-agency "compensation" (draft choice) aren't going to change anytime soon, but there are other ways to equal the playing field a bit. Everyone who's thought about it probably has their own ideas about how best to do it, and I have mine, and I invite all of you to offer your suggestions as well. While you are thinking about it, here are some of the ideas I have for immediately improving MLB "competitive balance," especially as it relates to giving losing clubs and smal market teams a chance at acquiring some pretty decent talent for a reasonable price, and it's a a process which does not involve token compensation for losing free-agents by getting a pick in the "crap shoot" known as the June Draft. Rather, I'm talkng about genuine coin-of-the-realm major leagure players, and good ones, too. Let's start at the end of the regular season, and take it from there... TEN DAYS AFTER END OF MLB REGULAR SEASON: NO CHANGE: Minor league players eligible to be Six-Year Minor League Free-agents who are not added to an MLB 40-man roster by the close of business ten days after the end the MLB regular season may declare themselves free-agents by notifying the MLB office by that date. ---------------------------------------------------------- TEN DAYS AFTER CONCLUSION OF WORLD SERIES: NO CHANGE: MLB players eligible to file for free-agency under CBA Article XX would be free to do so anytime within the first 15 days after the end of the World Series. CHANGE: All players on MLB disabled lists (not just players who are eligible to be Article XX free-agents) must be reactivated from a clubís DL within the "Free-Agency Election Period" (the first 15 days after the close of the World Series). ----------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 7th: NO CHANGE: Would be the last date a club can offer arbitration to their own Article XX Free-Agents. ----------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 19th: NO CHANGE: Article XX Free-Agents must decide by the end of business on December 19th whether to accept salary arbitration (if offered). Article XX FAs who accept the offer of salary arbitration would have to be returned to their clubís "Reserve List" (40-man roster) by the close of business on December 20th. ------------------------------------------------------------ DECEMBER 20th: NO CHANGE: Article XX Free-Agents who decline the offer of salary arbitration would be free to negotiate with their old club (along with all other MLB clubs) until January 7th. NO CHANGE: By close of business on December 20th, club would have to tender a contract to any unsigned player on the club's "Reserve List" (40-man roster), including all players who are eligible for salary arbitration and all so-called ìauto-renewalî (pre-arbitration) players, or else said player is automatically "released." CHANGE: Minor league rosters would be frozen on December 20th (a month later than they are now), such that players on minor league rosters at the close of business on December 20th cannot be added to a clubís 40-man roster or traded until the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings in January. Also, the MLB "Reserve List" limit (40-man roster limit) should be reduced to 36 players, or possibly even to 32. ------------------------------------------------------------ FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY: NO CHANGE: Clubs would have until January 8th to negotiate with their own Article XX free-agents who declined the offer of salary arbitration on December 19th. ------------------------------------------------------------ SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY: CHANGE: The Winter Meetings would be held the second week of January (Monday through Thursday), instead of the first wek of December. (NOTE: This is something that actually might really happen, as there has been talk in recent years about moving the Winter Meetings to after the first of the year). MINOR CHANGE The Rule 5 Draft would be re-designated the ìMinor League Draftî and would be held on the last day of the Winter Meetings (Thursday). MINOR CHANGE: The ìMinor League Draftî (formerly Rule 5 Draft) would be divided into three sections: the ìClass AAA Phase,î the ìClass AA Phase,î and the ìClass A Phase") . The former ìMajor League Phaseî of the Rule 5 Draft (where clubs can select players off AAA rosters for $50,000, and where the player must be kept on the drafting clubís 25-man roster the entire following season or be offered back to the original club for $25,000) would be re-designated the ìClass AAA Phaseî of the "Minor League Draft." MAJOR CHANGE: In the newly re-designated ìAAA Phaseî of the "Minor League Draft,î each club would be allowed to select no more than three players off AAA rosters. Players selected in this phase of the ìMinor League Draftî would be placed on the drafting club's "Reserve List" (40-man roster), would NOT have to be kept on the drafting club's 25-man regular season roster the following season. As long as the player has minor league options left, he can be sent to the minor leagues by the drafting club, just like any other player. EXAMPLE: Juan Mateo could be optioned to the minors by the Cardinals in 2006, 2007, and 2008. MINOR CHANGE: The former ìAAA Phaseî of the Rule 5 Draft (where players can be selected off AA rosters for $12,000) would be re-designated the ìClass AA Phaseî of the "Minor League Draft," and the former ìAA Phaseî of the Rule 5 Draft (where players can be selected off Class A rosters for $4,000) would be re-designated the ìClass A Phase" of the "Minor League Draft." MAJOR CHANGE: A new draft called the ìMajor League Draftî would be established, and would be held immediately after the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft (ìMinor League Draftî). In this new ìMajor League Draft,î all clubs would be permitted to ìprotectî 15 players on their 40-man roster. NOTE: ALL players who have ìno trade rights,î including ì10/5î players, players with ìno tradeî rights in their contracts, and players signed as Artixcle XX free-agents after the close of the "Free-Agency Election Period' (which ends 15 days after the conclusion of the World Series) after the close of the previous season (who have automatic "no trade" rights until June 15th of the following season) MUST be among the 15 players protected. Selecting in inverse order of their won-loss record the previous season, each club would be permitted to select no more than one player, at a cost of $100,000. No club could lose more than one player. Players selected in the Major League Draft MUST be kept on the drafting clubís 25-man roster for the entire following season or be offered back to the original club (only) for $50,000. If the original club declines the opportunity to reacquire the player, then the drafting club can trade the player to another club, release the player, or place the player on "outright waivers." Try figuring out who the Cubs would protect, keeping in mind Wood, Maddux, Howry, Eyre, and Mabry would HAVE to be protected because they have "no trade" rights (Wood and Maddux in their contracts, and Howry, Eyre, Mabry, and Jones, by virtue of being signed as Article XX FAs). So that's six right there. Only nine slots left: 1. Lee 2. Zambrano 3. Prior 4. Ramirez 5. Pierre 6. Barrett 7. Cedeno 8. Murton 9. Pie Obviously if such a draft were in place, a lot of FAs wouldn't be signed as early as they are now, especially guys like Mabry, but probably Eyre, Howry, and Jones as well. A GM wouldn't want to sign a John Mabry to a FA contract prior to the Major League Draft if it would mean taking a chance on losing a Jerome Williams, a Rich Hill, or a Michael Wuertz, for $100,000, but that's EXACTLY the point of the draft. The clubs that aggressively pursue the best FAs each year and sign them early so other teams can't, will probably not be able to avoid losing one very good player every year as well. And the beneficiaries of this new annual Major League Draft (in many cases) will be clubs that are actually losing the better free-agents, although there would be no direct link between losing a FA and acquiring a top prospect or quality MLB player in the Major League Draft (because the MLBPA would not accept that type of linkage). Rather, the key to acquiring the best available player in the draft would be losing games the previous season, not losing a player or players to free-agency.
Return to Homepage

Comments

So Neal, you obviously missed my point since I never mentioned Prior anywhere in my post.

I was simply pointing out that all the offensive numbers were similar, while our ERA went up beyond 4 as a team. The two years we won 88/89 games, our ERA was under 4. Do you really think that the OBP dropping .22 is as significant as our ERA going up by over a quarter of a run--not to mention crossing the 4 RPG mark? Please.

Second, I never mentioned teams relying on hitting or pitching compared to the rest of the league. However, if you want to note that, I see that 4 teams (because you want to eliminate the Marlins, why?) were ranked better in pitching than hitting with one being even..and the other team ultimately dominated their World Series opponent.

I was simply noting that the Cubs had two of their best years in the last 30 seasons with strong pitching behind them.

"First, I think you are wrong (read my recent posts). Second, so we should trade players 3 years early because we most likely won't sign them in 3 years?? Makes no sense!!"

Yes, Manny, I know you think I am wrong. I read your posts. I'll wait to comment further until I get word that it is 3 years from one of the TCR writers.

3 years changes things a bit. However, if it is only 2 years, then yes, I think you begin thinking about trading those players IF you think you can't re-sign them. Look at my 4 conditions for justifying a Prior trade above.

A trade for a player like Tejada does not come around every year, and if the Cubs are convinced they can't re-sign Prior, they should consider trading him for someone that would definitely plug a hole, like Tejada.

With all of this said, I'm still very mixed on the trade. I see arguments for both sides. I just don't think it is as cut and dried to not trade Prior as some of you think.

'This is something we explored in the Win Shares and Salary article, where we found that you can't really get a handle on a player's value unless you consider his replacement level separately. And, because the replacement level is lower for pitchers than batters, Win Shares unfairly impacts pitchers.'

Except the the replacement for Tejada is Cedeno/Neifi and the replacement for Prior is Bedard.

Green Latern you need to devide your WS by 3.

Trading Tejada (26) and Bedard (9) for Prior (13), Perez (12) and Cedeno (2) would have given the Cubs roughly 3 more wins last year.

Win Shares are stupid, they give credit for stats a player puts up in a loss. Why you would get a share of a win for a home run you hit in a 12-3 loss, is beyond me. If it were done correctly (players acruing win-shares only in games won) starting pitchers would be much more valuable. When your system comes up with Jason Lane being worth 1.3 more wins that Brad Lidge- you probably need to go back to the drawing board. And the Hardball Times are doulbly stupid for admitting it's wrong and then crunching and putting the numbers up anyway.

Andrew, I sorry you get my post. I would let DLee walk in a heartbeat. I would lock up Z and Prior and you won't be sorry. Having two ACE pitchers can take you to a world series championship (see Schilling, Curt and Johnson, Randy). DLee can be replaced with more production from right field and a 'good hitting' (read NOT all star) first basebman.

Andrew:
"I'll wait to comment further until I get word that it is 3 years from one of the TCR writers."

Yeah you should wait, they are the end all be all and are NEVER wrong. They are fans just like us. Nothing more except their soapbox is only slightly higher.

"I just don't think it is as cut and dried to not trade Prior as some of you think."

I do...and Hendry has already offered it, so Hendry has already f***ed up even if BALT doesn't take the trade. Just add it to his list.

Patterson, Walker and $ to ARZ for Orlando Hudson anyone?

"Second, so we should trade players 3 years early because we most likely won't sign them in 3 years?? Makes no sense!!"

Manny,

When you get the value of Tejada and Bedard it makes sense. Public reaction in BAL from what I am hearing is more aganist this trade than it is is here. Because they can see the numbers and realizing there giving up the 4th best player (Arod, Vlad, Pujols would be 1-3)in MLB and getting the 2nd most overated player in all of pro sports (Mike Vick being no.1) in Prior. Wake up people its going to be 2006 in a week not 2003. Prior will never again get to 18 wins again he is the Doc Gooden of the 21st century just replace being the cocaine with elbow injuries.

prior has 2 years of club control left..06/07...dunno what crack whatever radio guy blah blah blah etc.

Chifan-
Bruce Levine said today that from what he is hearing on sprots radio and on the internet, BALT fans are 80/20 against the trade and Cubs fans are 80/20 against the trade.

Neither organziation hasn't done too much the past couple decades, so maybe it is time to listen to the fans on this one and pull the plug on the deal. Unfortuantely Hendry still has his feet in the dirty water.

Chifan:
getting the 2nd most overated player in all of pro sports (Mike Vick being no.1) in Prior. "

I thought Wood was the most overrated? Oh yeah, no Brian Urlacher was voted the most overrated by Sporting News. Yeah he is only the NFL Defensive Player of the Year this year and leads one of the best defenses in the HISTORY of football.

in a market where furcal goes for 13m...getting tejada for 12m would be a weird twist.

if tejada was a FA this year wonder what his market value would be.

anyway...aside from what everything thinks of prior, and i'm a huge fan...if the cubs get bedard and tejada and get to dump off patterson...hell, that's not a bad deal.

personally, i could care less either way. the cubs will either get a good SS and a power bat for under market value or get to keep one of the best arms in the game and pay him like one.

Ummm isn't there something wrong with this?

'Cubs Record
'05 79-83
'04 98-73
'03 88-74

And then this by Real Neal...

So in the year we had the best hitting, we had the best record.

How the hell did I miss us winning 98 games?

Manny:

"Yeah you should wait, they are the end all be all and are NEVER wrong. They are fans just like us. Nothing more except their soapbox is only slightly higher."

Except that, over time and experience, I value their fan input slightly more than I value yours. No offense, but track records speak for themselves.

"I do..."

Congratulations, you have an opinion. So do I. Your point?

"and Hendry has already offered it, so Hendry has already f***ed up even if BALT doesn't take the trade. Just add it to his list."

See above, last line of post #139.

Crunch:
"if tejada was a FA this year wonder what his market value would be."

Yeah, I wonder how much he will be bitching in the clubhouse about how much he is worth and why he is not getting paid that.

"or get to keep one of the best arms in the game and pay him like one."

So the about $5 million Prior will get this year in arbitration is being paid like one of the best arms in the game?

Manny,
I hear ya.
That's the funny thing about this whole thing.
I don't like the idea of trading Prior, but if I put myself in the place of an Orioles fan, I don't think I like the trade either.
Both players mean so much to their franchises.

Just a side note, I think that the move benifits both Prior and Tejada as individuals.
Prior gets to pitch under Mazzone, and is out from under DFB. Tejada joins a better line up, a better hitters park, probably better hitting coaches, and gets out of a franchise with so much ugliness going on in the last year.

Not that I really care what's best for the players anyway...I'm just saying...

"Prior will never again get to 18 wins again he is the Doc Gooden of the 21st century just replace being the cocaine with elbow injuries."

Chifan, there are so many things wrong with that statement, I don't even know where to begin. Are you joking? Or do you seriously get your kicks by pulling s*** out of your a**?

Vegas Brian,

I clearly stated that I didn't understand your point.

'I was simply noting that the Cubs had two of their best years in the last 30 seasons with strong pitching behind them.'

Actually all of the Cubs bests seasons in the last 30 years were because of 'strong pitching'. They've never had a 900 run offense in that time though, so it's hard to say what they would do with a great offense and mediocre pitching. I think if that team were constructed, and it had a solid bullpen, they'd likely be a playoff caliber team.

Brian, if you don't understand how park factors play into effect when looking at a team's offense and pitching, I don't know what to tell you. I think ESPN has some park-factor stats you can take a look at. If the Marlins are 6th in the NL in ERA and 8th in Runs, they're offense is actually better than their pitching (same for the Yankees and I think the Angels).

Andrew:
"No offense, but track records speak for themselves."

Then you haven't been following things very closely lately (last year being able to send Patterson down, Prior's arbitration elgibility this year, ROY eligibility for Cedeno and Murton, etc.). But Hey, I just am repotring the facts. And they are even on The Cub Reporter's contract page...take a look!!

http://www.all-baseball.com/ref/cubscontracts...

It shows Prior's service time to be "2+131" going into last year.

Andrew:
"Your attempt to deflect your Dusty-love with Hendry-hate is nauseatingly consistent."

You can try and spin it that way, but there are many who agree with me on this one about Hendry.

And the exact opposite of your statement can be said of you...Funny Huh???

""or get to keep one of the best arms in the game and pay him like one."

So the about $5 million Prior will get this year in arbitration is being paid like one of the best arms in the game?"

manny, prior gets 1 year of that...tejada's 12m a year average comes over the next 4 years (06-09).

while prior may make 5-6m in 06, he's due to join the 12-ish million club shortly afterward.

a deal like this isnt exclusive to 1 year...and if it is, like someone said earlier...it an argument of if the CY pitcher or the MVP hitter is better for the team in the long run of the season.

Dan teh Fan:
"Manny,
I hear ya.
That's the funny thing about this whole thing.
I don't like the idea of trading Prior, but if I put myself in the place of an Orioles fan, I don't think I like the trade either.
Both players mean so much to their franchises."

Yeah, i know what you mean. That is why when Levine said that it really didn't surprise me. Funny how that works...sounds like to me the plug should be pulled.

Mike C,

'How the hell did I miss us winning 98 games? '

I think you missed it the same way you missed this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typo

"#211 of 218: By crunch (December 27, 2005 07:31 PM)
in a market where furcal goes for 13m...getting tejada for 12m would be a weird twist.

if tejada was a FA this year wonder what his market value would be."

If this was the case, Furcal would not have gotten 13 million.

Next, while I have seen very shoddy reporting from the mainstream press, I am going to belive the Trib when they say that Prior is under contract until the end of 2008. If not, I am saving that link and going to make them print a retraction.

Manny:

"Then you haven't been following things very closely lately"

I wasn't talking about TCR's track record. I was talking about yours.

"You can try and spin it that way, but there are many who agree with me on this one about Hendry."

And even more on this one that agree with me about you.

"And the exact opposite of your statement can be said of you...Funny Huh???"

I have no love for Dusty, but I don't love Hendry all that much either. I blasted him over the Furcal debacle and am not afraid to call them as I see him. Indeed, I'll probably agree with you that if the Cubs don't make the postseason this year, he should be gone. But I'll go ahead and let the season start and finish before I make that final judgement call.

G'night, dearies.

I know Real Neal it was more of a joke.

I really wish we were good enough at some point to win 98 games. That would be nice.

crunch:
"while prior may make 5-6m in 06, he's due to join the 12-ish million club shortly afterward."

What do you mean by shortly? Prior definately has 2 years more with the Cubs. I now beleive he has 3 years left. But even the two years will pay him $5 million in 2006 and about $7 million in 2007. That is what Tejada will make in one year with the Cubs. Then if there is that 3rd year because his service time has not timed out, he might make $10 million in 2008. So for the 3 years Tejada will make $37 million.

Oh yeah, I will take the Cy Young pitcher over MVP hitter every day.

Andrew:
"I wasn't talking about TCR's track record. I was talking about yours."

What is wrong with my track record besides teh fact you hate Dusty Baker and I like Dusty Baker? Examples would be nice. Thanks!!

"But I'll go ahead and let the season start and finish before I make that final judgement call."

Well you can look at it reactionary, that is cool, I don't like to do that way. Becuase if the season ends up without another playoff season, then what? You wasted the year. Be proactive!!

I was just thinking about Jody Gerut. I liked the Matt Lawton trade when it went down but he just never performed.

That was an expensive option to take for Hendry. Gerut could of played RF for a fraction of the cost of Jaque Jones and probably hit just as well. Defense would be another matter but who cares when your paying 800k for Gerut.

I kinda wish we had Gerut instead of Jones for RF. But oh well there was still some serious concern over whether Gerut was ever fully healthy.

"Oh yeah, I will take the Cy Young pitcher over MVP hitter every day"

100% AGREED!!!

7m in 07? try 10-12m...10 if he signs a multiyear with that 1st year cheap.

this is prior's last "cheap" year unless he doesnt pitch 180-200 innings+

crunch-
"7m in 07? try 10-12m..."

You very well be right as arb figures are just a guess. But do you have any examples of pitchers in Prior's arbitration situation getting $10-12 million? Thanks!!

Does anyone else wonder if Hendry even has a plan anymore?

Manny,

If Prior has a Cy Young type year this year, he's going to get about 10 million for '07 and 13 for '08. Look at Tim Hudson's contract. If he doesn't have a Cy Young type year- give me Tejada and Bedard, please. I think the 5 million in '06 may be low as well, but not probably not more than half a million or so.

you're kidding right? one of the best righties in the game?

his proof will be in his peers, what theyre paid, and going to arbitration with that...the GM better come with a reasonably high figure or prior's gonna fleece the club.

if he is pitching anything like he's shown over the past many years and he can put in a year's worth of work...his base should be pretty high as a starting point.

ugg..rumor season..is it spring yet?

Real Neal-
I am talking about going to arbitration. Not what signing a contract will get him. I understand the Cubs don't go to arbitration with players, but similar players going to arbitration with less than 6 years service would be a good and fair starting point to see what he would get.

*** Hudson now has over 6 years service time, so he is 3 years ahead of Prior, not really comparing apples and oranges when the Cubs don't have to pay prior FA numbers yet.

Imagine this for a second..

Prior turns in a CY Young performance in 2006. Heads to arbitration for 2007. Based on his past earnings, his past CY Young season, past arbitration hearings and past rulings you could see something along the lines of what Roger Clemens got from the Astro's for the 2005 season.

Clemens was paid the large amount based on his low salary in 2004, and on whether he could re-earn that at a later date. Due to his age they gave him the 18+ million.

Prior is still very young so his future earning potential would be factored in. He would easily command from an arbitrator between $12-15 million for the 2007 season. I believe closer to $15 million. This only if Prior turns in a Cy Young type season.

If he wins 12-15 games and posts a 3.80 ERA he will get $7-9 million tops.

Neal, I believe I see where they scored 998 in 1930. Last I checked, the did not win the WS that year. We did score over 800 in 1931, 1935, 1937, & 1970; but alas, did not win then either.

I do remember having back to back seasons giving up over 900 runs. Those were not fun seasons for me.

What I know about our ballpark is that other teams come in and constantly kick the crap out of us because they feel like their hitting batting practice in the "friendly confines." We have tried to put together strong offensive teams to take advantage, but it has had little success.

We recently put together some solid pitching, and have had back to back winning seasons for the first time since I was born. It seems to me the pitching thing is working a bit better.

Andrew,

The only 2 mistakes I made in my Prior/Gooden post was the being typo and I should have to qualified that with Prior will not be a consisant 18 game winner because he has the talent if he were healthy to put up those #'s but I doubt he will stay healthy and thats why I do the trade.

Manny,

Urlacher played his way out of being overrated even though people felt that way cause they were comparing him to Butkus unfairly. If Prior can stay healthy I'll gladly take him out of the overrated catagory. As for Urlacher being the defensive player of the year even though he probably will win it and would deserve it, my vote would go Strahan who has 11.5 sacks and 76 tackles for NYG who would miss him more than we would miss Urlacher if they were injured.

Meanwhile,

JEROMY BURNITZ is said to be near signing a 2 Year/$12 Million contract with the Baltimore Orioles, but he's still talking to other teams.

...
....

Everyone who claimed he'd be available cheap next spring ... YOU DON'T KNOW JACK!

if that's true, the theory that the o's being scared of tejada's 2nd 1/2 numbers last season as part of them considering trades is bunk.

personally, im more concerned about who exactly will be the club's 2nd baseman and what cpat will fetch the club...hopefully a decent RH power bench.

"I should have to qualified that with Prior will not be a consisant 18 game winner because he has the talent if he were healthy to put up those #'s but I doubt he will stay healthy and thats why I do the trade."

I think he'll stay healthy as long as he stays away from line drives and 2nd basemen.

"Everyone who claimed he'd be available cheap next spring ... YOU DON'T KNOW JACK!"

Who said that? Who really cares if he is?

Rotoworld is quoting the BAL Sun as saying that a Tejada trade is not close and that BOS is offering Manram and Clement.

CHIFAN:
"Rotoworld is quoting the BAL Sun as saying that a Tejada trade is not close and that BOS is offering Manram and Clement."

WOO!!!!! GREAT NEWS!!!

The BOST offer is WAY better than the Cubs. They get a better offensive player and a solid #3-4 starter and don't have to give up Berard.

I hope they jump on that tonight!!

Man this World Baseball Classic is slowly becoming less interesting. So far AROD and Matsui are out for sure, with no doubt many dropping out closer to some kind of small injury.

So much for getting the best players in the world on the same field. it would of been a great idea if everyone was on board.

ManRam has a no trade clause. I highly doubt we'll see him in Baltimore.

You guys should check out the Cubs' new depth chart:

P-1.Z, 2.Maddux, 3.*Prior*, 4.Williams, 5.Rusch
C-Barrett, Blanco, Soto
1B-DLee, Mabry
2B-*Walker*, Theriot
SS-*Cedeno*, Perez
3B-Aram, Mabry
LF-Murton, Hairston
CF-Pierre, KPatt, Hairston
RF-Jones, Patterson, Mabry, Pie

First of all, Why is Maddux our #2? Why is Prior our #3?
Second, Cedeno is at SS (thank god)!
Finally, Walker is at second (a second "thank god")

I hope they are not giving a hint of further moves with the Prior bump, unless it has always been that way.

Manny,

If it were fantasy baseball that would be a better deal but when you add the facts that Bal will have to add salary and that Manram could decide in ST that he wants out and Clement is overpaid and only pitches until August. Hell if they did like that deal Hendry could top it with Ram, Jwill, and Hill for Tejada and Penn. Then trade Barrett to TOR for Hillenbrand and sign Molina. Your line-up will be:

CF Pierre
2b Cedeno
1b Lee
SS Tejada
c Molina
3b Hillenbrand
Rf Jones
lf Murton

Your Rotation:

Z
Prior
Maddux
Rusch
Penn/Guzman/Wood

Another mental giant who wants to trade our best player. You guys wouldn't know a good player if he played all star baseball for the cubs.

sorry, i meant to type if he played all star third base for the cubs.

If the Boston rumor is true, it certainly provides justification to Hendry's offer. There are intelligent baseball people out there, with much more to lose than any of the posters on TCR, who objectively understand Tejada's value.

CHIFAN:
"If it were fantasy baseball that would be a better deal but when you add the facts that Bal will have to add salary..."

Yeah they are soooooo worried about payroll that they just offered Burntiz a 2 year-$12 million deal.

"that Manram could decide in ST that he wants out"

Wants out of what?? His $19 million dollar a year deal over the next 3 years? A deal that nobody in baseball would pay him when they had the chance just two years ago when he was on irrevokable waivers. Also he gets a $1.0 million bonus if he gets traded. Also, he has said he wants to be traded.

"Clement is overpaid and only pitches until August."

While true, I refer back to the Burnitz deal comment I made above and that Cleemnt would be their 3rd starter even so.

433:
"If the Boston rumor is true, it certainly provides justification to Hendry's offer."

Just like it provided justification to outbid KC (so basically nobody) for Jones. Hendry gave him the 3rd year that KC was willing to give PLUS more money. I wonder if he has a scorecard in his office with 1 next to his name and 0 next to the KC's GM name. Should be proud...

I think it is coming clearer and clearer everyday to the baseball nation why the Cubs have not won in 98 years.

"If the Boston rumor is true, it certainly provides justification to Hendry's offer. There are intelligent baseball people out there, with much more to lose than any of the posters on TCR, who objectively understand Tejada's value."

Really? ManRam is a petulant headcase hitting savant. He's a whiner and complainer and has been available to ANYONE who would take him but no one wants him. Just for reference, lets recall this the same ManRam that CLEARED OUTRIGHT WAIVERS in 2003. Don't give me this 'objectively understand Tejada's value' BS. ManRam's number will begin to decline due to the fact that he's no spring chicken. AND Matt Clement SUCKS. Boston knows this and would love to move him.

Manny,

I know you like beating up on Hendry in an attempt to distract people from Dusty's ineptitude, but even you can't blame Hendry for 98 years of futility...

You might not like Hendry's offer, and it's fair to constructively criticize it. But you can't dismiss the offer as stupid or irresponsible when (1) the other team's fans hate the deal, (2) the other team's management is balking at it and (3) a third team has offered more. In fact, I would argue that if Hendry really wants Tejada, he clearly hasn't offered enough!

By the way, I agree with you that a Cy Young pitcher beats a MVP shortstop any day. Alas, that doesn't have much to do with this discussion; even the most hardcore Prior defenders can't say with a straight face that he remains on track for a Cy Young season.

433-
"I know you like beating up on Hendry in an attempt to distract people from Dusty's ineptitude, but even you can't blame Hendry for 98 years of futility..."

HA HA HA And even you are the other Dusty haters can't blame Dusty for the 98 years of futlity, but most of you try hard :)

And who hired Dusty?? Who still supports Dusty?? It is funny to see people blame the wrong guy...

And a majority of Cubs fans don't like the deal too.

Chad,

I'm surprised to see your take on Boston's offer -- even Manny admitted that Boston's offer was "WAY" better than the Cubs' offer (i.e, Manny + Clement > Prior + CPat + Hill)!

Manny, you kill me. In making your case that Hendry is an idiot and Dusty rules, you argue that Hendry is a dope for hiring and supporting Dusty.

Your logic makes my head hurt.

433-
It is a better deal for BALT. That does not mean it is a better deal if we traded those players straight up (Manny + Clement FOR Prior + CPat + Hill).

As a Cub fan I would not take that deal, but based on BALT needs and them wanting to keep Berdard, it is a better deal as they keep their stud pitcher and add a #3-4 starter AND a better offensive player.

There is a differnce, so I wanted to make it clear as you did not 100% portray my thoughts properly.

433-
It must make your eyes blind too....

Because how can one constantly bash at Baker, but not even more so at Hendry for hiring him and sticking with him and supporting him?

Shouldn't you be VERY upset at your GM for keeping Baker as the manager. Especillay when you and many others constantly say he is one of the biggest problem, if not the biggest problem, with the Cubs.

"By the way, I agree with you that a Cy Young pitcher beats a MVP shortstop any day. Alas, that doesn't have much to do with this discussion; even the most hardcore Prior defenders can't say with a straight face that he remains on track for a Cy Young season."

Just about every GM in baseball think that Mark Prior is still and MVP candidate. That's why Baltimore wants him for their best player.

Thanks for the new horse, but boy, his teeth look a might funny.

Manny,

I do think Hendry now owns some blame for the Dusty problem. He has let it linger too long.

Do you think that keeping Dusty is a smart move by Hendry? (Sorry for the cheap logic trick, but I just want to hear you compliment Hendry, just once)

What I can't let you or any Dusty Defender do is make the argument that Hendry is ultimately responsible for Dusty's suckiness. That's not fair to anyone involved -- it makes it impossible for Dusty to own any blame for his own shortcomings.

Dusty is to blame for Dusty's suckiness; Hendry just owns some responsiblity for enabling it.

Chad,

Sorry to call BS on you, but I gotta ask you where you get your claim that "just about every GM in baseball thinks that Mark Prior is still an MVP candidate." Did you make that up?

Look, I love Prior. He is probably my favorite Cub. But if he is indeed on the proverbial GM's list of "MVP candidates", then that must be a very very long list, my friend.

433:
"I do think Hendry now owns some blame for the Dusty problem. He has let it linger too long."

Well that is a good first small step for the Dusty haters. It is LONG overdue and should be much stronger, but then that would be like letting baker of the hook (can't do that right, you have an agenda to stick to). You guys just want to blame him for everything and not look at the bigger picture.

But it does truly amaze me that since supposedly, Baker is one of the worst things, if not the worst thing, about the Cubs, but yet his boss supports him and hired him, and his boss gets very little blame about it.

Dusty haters don't blame Neifi for his suckiness, but blames Dusty for playing him. But yet can't truly blame Hendry for "playing" Dusty but blames Dusty for his suckiness. Sounds very hypocritical to me.

But where do you stop that train of logic? If Hendry is responsible for Baker, then MacPhucker is responsible for Hendry. Okay, no problem. And Tribco is responsible for MacPhucker. I can do that too. But then the blame lays with us for continuing to let the team remain profitable, in turn, tolerating this non-ending train of idiocy.

Manny,

Like I said, I agree that Hendry owns some blame for Dusty's ineptitude, because he has let him stick around this long after all. I think most thinking fans would agree with that. But I'm genuinely curious -- do you think Hendry is smart for keeping Dusty around this long?

And I hope you see that Hendry's share of the blame doesn't absolve Dusty of his.

More to the point, if Hendry is responsible for Dusty's suckiness, then Dusty must be held responsible when he overplays sucky players.

Borowski4life:
"But then the blame lays with us for continuing to let the team remain profitable, in turn, tolerating this non-ending train of idiocy."

Many an outsider of Cubdom thinks that it is the fans fault for constantly supporting a team that at times shows no willingness to win or doesn't really care about the fans. That have a point, but that is up to the individual fan to decide.

433:
"do you think Hendry is smart for keeping Dusty around this long?"

I wouldn't go as far as smart, but I think it is and was a good move to have him manage the Chicago Cubs.

"if Hendry is responsible for Dusty's suckiness, then Dusty must be held responsible when he overplays sucky players."

IF there was a better player to play than the one Dusty was, then yes he should be repsonsible for it. Like I thought he played Corey TOO LONG last year and should of benched him weeks before they sent him down.

If we don't get Tejada, what other moves do you see happening for the Cubs this offseason.

Another outfielder? pitcher? What do you all think?

Cubbiefan-
Outside of this horrible BALT trade idea, there really isn't much else the Cubs will do barring another crazy trade thing coming up. The team is pretty set right now, and no FA's are left to pick up, only a trade could really help and the only real possibility is Zito right now.

Sadly, I just don't see this team making the playoffs as currently set, unless we get a few career years and are starting pitchers all stay healthy.

"Sadly, I just don't see this team making the playoffs as currently set, unless we get a few career years and are starting pitchers all stay healthy."

You can say that about every team. When was last time a team won without a few career years and all pitchers were healthy ('04 Schilling does not count because he still pitched)? I still like our team as is. Yes, I'd prefer another starter to bump either Rusch, Williams, or Maddux (ain't happening). I'd also like another outfielder to back up Murton in case he falters.

Vegas Brian:
"You can say that about every team. When was last time a team won without a few career years and all pitchers were healthy"

Good point...

But there are some teams that look better than others on paper. Not that "on paper" means anything. I guess i wished our team looked better on papaer, especially considering a $100 million payroll.

Why is nobody all that concerned about Tejada's "B12" problem? I am more concerned about that than the durability of Prior's arm. Tejada's Post All-star game(Raffy suspension) numbers are average at best. I can't wait until we trade Prior for an "MVP" SS, who shrinks from 5'9in 215lbs, to 185lbs. I just hope he can pull it together a la Giambi late 2005.

Sorry 433, I meant Cy Young. And I stand by that. I would say the Mark Prior is considered a tier 1 talent in the MLB. And that most GMs would take him #1 over just about any pitcher in all of baseball. All things factored into it, considering age as well.

This is where I'd Rank Prior among the young elite pitchers that you want to build a franchise around.

1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Mark Prior
4. Roy Halladay
5. Roy Oswalt
6. Dontrelle Willis
7. Carlos Zambrano
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Chris Carpenter
10. Rich Harden
11. Josh Beckett
12. Zach Duke
13. Ben Sheets

Here's a list I tossed off for Young Position Players?

1. Albert Pujols
2. A-Rod
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Vlad Guerro
5. Miguel Tejada
6. David Wright
7. Mark Teixiera
8. Jason Bay
9. Michael Young
10. Carlos Beltran
11. Derrek Lee
12. Travis Hafner
13. Victor Martinez

Tejada and Prior are both in the top five of the great Dan the Fan ranking system.
But you could argue that Tejada belongs lower down, maybe as low as 15. I can't see Prior being anything less than one of the top 5 young pitchers in baseball.

Dan the fan-
I would put Willis(left handed) and Oswalt(he actually wins) ahead of Prior, but I agree with the rest.

Chad,

I think that most Cubs fans (myself included) are guilty of overhyping Prior, in part because of his huge role in the 2003 run and the promise he showed then. As an example, I offer your statement that "most GMs would take him #1 over just about any pitcher in all of baseball."

This is simply no longer true.

"but with a $100+ million payroll, that excuse should be thrown out the window, with Hendry :)"

If I donate 10,000 to charity, I am a VERY generous man. If Bill Gates donates the same 10,000, all he has to do is scrape his bellybutton lint to find that money. That's like 15 minutes of interest on one of his bank accounts.

Saying that the Trib spends enough because they spend 100mm is not enough for me. They are making a sick profit on operations. They should be investing more in the club than they do. We have a revenue base that warrants a greater payroll.

"This is simply no longer true."

Indeed, it isn't.

Dan the Fan,

I'd put your list like this:

1. Johan Santana
2. Roy Halladay
3. Roy Oswalt
4. Jake Peavy
5. Dontrelle Willis
6. Felix Hernandez
7. Carlos Zambrano
8. Mark Prior
9. Josh Beckett
10. Rich Harden
11. Chris Carpenter
12. Ben Sheets
13. Zach Duke

Until Prior shows some ability to perform despite freakish injuries, I'd put him no higher than 8th on that list.

#191 of 279: By mannytrillo (December 27, 2005 06:12 PM)
Chad:
"I also read that Prior will not be a free agent until AFTER the 2008 season. And that is according to ChicagoSports.com."

You know, when Bruce Levine was on ESPN Radio 1000 today he mentioned Cubs having Prior for 3 more years too. I went to look up Prior's service time in my Media Guide from last year and it said he had 2.131 years of service through 2004.

So, if Prior had 2.131 years of service time through 2004. He was on the 40 man the entire year last year, so after 2005 he should be at 3.131. After 2006, 4.131. After 2007, 5.131 (still short of Free Agency). So he would be under Cubs control through the 2008 season.

How did we all miss this all along?? AZ PHIL??

---

MANNY T: We didn't miss it. I've posted several times that Mark Prior won't be a free-agent until after the 2008 season, most recently a couple of weeks ago.

Just so everybody is clear on the Cubs future projected FAs, I have started a new thread repeating the list.

#133 of 280: By Andrew (December 27, 2005 12:58 PM)

One question, perhaps for AZ Phil. If the Prior-Tejada deal were to happen, would that count as Tejada's once chance to demand a trade in the middle of his contract? Or could he demand again after next season?

----

Andrew: No. If the Orioles do trade Miguel Tejada, it won't be in response to Tejada "demanding" a trade. He does not have that right. What Tejada is doing is merely "requesting" a trade.

Here are the circumstances under which a player can legally and officially DEMAND a trade:

1. Must have a minimum of five years of MLB service time.

2. Was traded by one club to another after signing a multi-year contract with the first club.

3. There are at least two years left on the contract.

4. The player must file the trade demand during the "Free-Agency Filing Period" (first 15 days after the end of the World Series).

5. Club has until March 15th to trade a player who has legally and officially demanded a trade.

6. The player can rescind the trade demand anytime prior to March 15th (as long as it's before he gets traded).

7. Player can designate up to six clubs to which he will not accept a trade.

8. If the player does not rescind the trade demand and the club fails to trade the player by March 15th, the player AUTOMATICALLY becomes a free-agent, the player's contract is voided and he gives up all salaries still outstanding from the contract, and the club does not receive any compensation when and if the player signs a contract with a new club.

9. Any player who gets traded after filing a trade demand under the circumstances listed above cannot file for free-agency for three years, and cannot file another trade demand (should new circumstances qualify him to do so) for three years, either.

EXAMPLE: Free-Agent Javier Vazquez signed a four-year contrct with the Yankees after the 2003 season, and was subsequently traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks (for Randy Johnson) after the 2004 season. After the 2005 season, Vazquez filed a Trade Demand (which was his right) during the Free-Agency Filing Period, and the D'backs had until March 15th to either trade him or allow him to become a free-agent.

Recently, the D'backs traded Vazquez to the White Sox for three players.

Because he was traded after the 2005 season, Vizcaino cannot be a free-agent until after the 2008 sesason, even though his contract expires after thec 2007 season. So after the conclusion of the 2007 World Series, the White Sox will have exactly five days to decide if they wish to offer Vizcaino salary arbitration (strictly a club option, which Vizcaino cannot refuse) for 2008.

If the White Sox choose to not offer Vizcaino salary arbitration at that time (after the 2007 season), Vizcaino is considered "non-tendered," immediately becomes a free-agent, and the White Sox would receive no compensation should Vizcaino sign with another club.

If the Cubs were to acquire Miguel Tejada in a trade this off-season, he would have one opportunity to demand a trade, and that would be during the "Free-Agency Filing Period" during the 15 days immediately following the 2006 World Series. If Tejada were to demand a trade at that time, the Cubs would have until March 15, 2007, to trade him, and Tejadsa would get to name no more than six clubs to whichb he would refuse a trade.

If the Cubs fail to trade him by March 15, 2007, Tejada would immediately become a free-agent, and he would lose the $38m in salaries left on his contract.

If Tejada demands a trade after the 2006 season and the Cubs DO trade him prior to March 15th, then Tejada can be a free-agent after the 2009 season, which is when his contract expires, anyway.

Manny,

Since you're incapable of doing as instructed. I am going to help you.

Tim Hudson
01:$0.5M, 02:$0.85M, 03:$2.7M, 04:$4.55M, 05:$6.75M 06: $14M 07: $6M 08: $13M 09: $13M

Now he had signed contracts for 01-09 seasons. So as well as he pithced, he probably cost himself some money - but reduced his personal risk.

If you just base Prior's salary on those inflation levels for the next three years- and split the $10 mil bonus Hudson got over the 06 and 07 this is what you're looking at for Prior:

06 $5.98 07 $8.875 08 $11.83

But that is based on signing a contract where he got extra money in his final pre-arb year. Prior didn't get any such deal (he already had extra money in his pre-arb year). If the Cubs just go Year-to-Year with Prior and he has all-star years in 06 and 07, I think it's safe to assume the 07 and 08 salaries are going to be bumped up to around $10 and $13 million a year. Again based on him being an all-star he'll probably get a $15 to $18 million a year contract after the 08 season. Let's call it $16.

Bedard will get auto-renewed this year for probably .7 million- if he pitches well for the next three years he's probably looking to make $2.5 $4 and $8 for his arbitration years.

That's a total of $20.2 million Prior would cost over Bedard over the next 4 years.

Now in Tejada you have a guy who is going to get $50 million over the next 4 years (plus $4 million bonus which isn't clear about who would pay) but being that he never misses a game, you're a lot more likely to get value for that $50 million than for the $43 million you're paying Prior over the same period.

I'm not saying I am in favor of this deal either way- what I am saying is that it's foolish to decide it's a bad deal, without taking everything into account. The prime factor, of course, being which players get traded, something that no one even knows.

#282 of 282: By Real Neal (December 28, 2005 07:26 AM)
Bedard will get auto-renewed this year for probably .7 million- if he pitches well for the next three years he's probably looking to make $2.5 $4 and $8 for his arbitration years.

-

NEAL: Erik Bedard is eligible for salary arbitration. He is DEFINITELY a "super-two" (his MLB service time is 2+171). So figure him for four years of salary arbitration, and then he will be a free-agent after 2009.

Thanks for the info Phil. I have to say that Tejada's ability to demand a trade after 2006 scares the hell out of me with regard to The Trade.

Well that is a good first small step for the Dusty haters. It is LONG overdue and should be much stronger, but then that would be like letting baker of the hook (can't do that right, you have an agenda to stick to). You guys just want to blame him for everything and not look at the bigger picture.

Christ Manny, do you just not read the pages of post of Dusty "haters" saying that Hendry should be responsible for not firing Dusty? But lets also be realistic, Hendry already asked the Trib to eat Sammy's contract last year, I'm sure they weren't willing to just give away another $4 million to His Dustyness.

If Hendry is not being allowed to fire Dusty, why should we be blaming him for Dusty's mistakes?

Seriously, Most of us here can recognize both the positives and negatives of both Hendry and Dusty, its just that while Hendry has put together 3 very good teams that have underperformed, Dusty has very few positives all of which are grossly outweighed by the negative. I've asked dozens of times what Dusty brings to the Cubs, and even his biggest supporters won't answer the question.

You have a love affair with Dusty where you won't dare question anything he does - except for a token detail to give you something to say "see I don't agree with him 100%." But in reality, you can't even say what his positives are, so you try to rewrite history and put all of the onfield underperformance on the back of your new favorite scapegoat, Jim Hendry.

Just like it provided justification to outbid KC (so basically nobody) for Jones. Hendry gave him the 3rd year that KC was willing to give PLUS more money. I wonder if he has a scorecard in his office with 1 next to his name and 0 next to the KC's GM name. Should be proud...

Speaking of writing history that's only a couple weeks old...

First, He outbid KC AND St. Louis - so are you going to call the cards basically nobody too???

Second, Imagine that, to get a player to sign, a GM has to outbid another team that's offering more money or more years. Its like Free Agents sign contracts with the teams that offer them the best deal. Wow, what a concept.

Damn You Jim Hendry for not magically being able to say, "Come play for a team that hasn't won a world series in a century, and do it for a discount because we're such a great team!!!"

And I didn't even mention that Hendry signed Jones for less money than Burnitz - getting a similar offensive player who is both younger and far superior defensively for less money.

Oh that's right, Hendry should have been able to "do better" by magically signing the top tier free agent whose name we don't know because we're not privy to the "inside information" that we'd only get from actually working in the Cubs Front Office. BYE BYE HENDRY!!!(sacrasm)

Guys I thought I read that KC actually bid for Jones at 3yr/$18mil -- and that Hendry actually was outbid - at least by KC.

I don't know if you guys are reading this thread still but Mark Prior is considered as probably the #1 or #2 best talents by GMs in baseball. I'm not talking the people here. I actually read interviews and watch GMs on ESPN. I watch round table discussions with former players and coaches. They all think that Mark Prior is one of the absolute best pitchers in all of the MLB. Probably #1. If you guys disagree with them fine, but my point stands.

In discussing MLB player contracts, future free-agency, and trades involving players with long-term mega-contracts, it might be useful to know that the current CBA will expire in about a year, on December 19, 2006.

2007 Spring Training lock-out, anyone?

And beginning on April 1, 2006, and for a three month window (April-May 2006), MLB owners will have the right to contract Major League Baseball by two clubs for the 2007 season. This is what the owners wanted to do when the CBA was signed in September 2002, but the MLBPA was able to push the decision off into the future (to 2006), and in just about three short months, the time will finally be at hand.

Do you think MLB wwners won't seriously consider snuffing out a couple of the "low value" franchises where there are also stadium "issues" (Florida Marlins, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Minnesota Twins, and/or Washington Nationals) effective with the 2007 season, with the other 26 owners buying out the two that get dropped, and with POSSIBLY a plan in place to create two "replacement" expansion teams (and all the windfall profits that goes with that) at a later time and place of the owners choosing (like maybe in Las Vegas, Portland, and/or Mexico, depending on the level of commitment from the locals), and then dump a couple of more tottering franchises and eventually replace them with expansion teams, too, at the end of the next CBA, and then do it again at the end of the next CBA after that one?

Or if MLB owners could find the right political leverage to drop the six franchises with the lowest value (Washington, Florida, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Kansas City, and Oakland), would they try to get the MLBPA to approve that in the next do it in the CBA? And how and why would the MLBPA go for that? If MLB Owners agree to increase size of regular-season roster (from 25 to 30) and the "reserve list" (from 40 to 50)?

N. L. EAST
CIN
NYM
PHI
PIT

N. L. CENTRAL
ATL
CHC
HOU
STL

N. L. WEST
AZ
LA
SD
SF

A. L. EAST:
BAL
BOS
NYY
TOR

A. L. CENTRAL:
CHW
CLE
DET
MIL (back to A. L. again from N. L.)

A. L. WEST:
COL (switched to A. L. from N. L.)
LAA
SEA
TEX

Chad,

If you can find me even a single GM who thinks that Prior is currently the "absolute best pitcher in all of the MLB" (as you put it), I will change my moniker to "433ISADOPE" for a day.

If you can't find one by Sunday, you have to go with "CHADISADOPE" for a day.

Deal?

Gee 433, lemme get my MLB GM contact sheet out and give them a call, I'll get back to you on that.

I can't exactly get copies of Baseball Tonight that I have seen or interiview on ESPN. That's crazy. Or random articles with random quotes. I know what I saw. The fact remains is that sometimes we know better than these GMs anyhow. I'm just reporting what I've seen and heard.

Pages

X
  • Sign in with Twitter