We Almost Got Wood

Mike Kiley reports in the Sun-Times that Kerry Wood is scheduled to pitch a simulated game tomorrow at Fitch Park in Mesa, and probably another next Thursday. If all goes well, that would put Woody's first minor league rehab start on April 25th, keeping him on the same pitching schedule as the temp #5 starter. If he stays on that schedule (pitching the same days as the temp 5th starter), and depending on how many rehab starts he needs to make (probably at least two, those being the April 25th and April 30th Iowa Cubs home games in Des Moines), Wood could return to the Cubs starting rotation on Friday night May 5th at SD, or certainly no later than Wednesday night May 10th at SF (again, if all goes well and there are no setbacks). It is possible (but not real likely) that he could make just one rehab start (April 25th at Des Moines) and return to the Cubs rotation at Wrigley Field on Sunday April 30th versus MIL. There is no specific schedule suggested for the return of Mark Prior or Wade Miller at this point. As far as the current 3-4-5 starters are concerned, all three (Sean Marshall, Jerome Williams, and Glendon Rusch) are scheduled to pitch the three games this weekend in Pittsburgh. Pitching tonight, Marshall is the only one of the three who could start next Wednesday night in LA, but don't forget that Angel Guzman is "shadowing" Marshall at Iowa, pitching on the exact same schedule. So if Marshall gets blasted tonight, Guzman could be recalled to replace Marshall in the starting rotation as early as next Wednesday in LA. And between Williams and Rusch, whichever one pitches best this weekend will probably get the start next Friday night in STL, with the other skipped until a 5th starter is needed on April 25th. That 5th starter slot (needed permanently beginning on April 25th) is the one Kerry Wood would slip into, either on April 30th, May 5th, or May 10th (depending on how the rehab goes).
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Comments

Thank God there are only 23 games in Cubbie April.

April: 23, May: 29, June: 27, July: 26, August: 28, September: 28, October: 12 :)~

Interesting stats:

Carlos Zambrano leads the NL in walks (12), tied with Oliver Perez.

Z also leads the NL in number of pitches thrown, 319 over 3 games.

Z also leads the league in strikeouts (18).

Glendon Rusch leads the NL in HRs given up (6), tied with Livan Hernandez.

Zambrano's (0-1, 4.86, 16.2 IP, 9 ER, 12 BB, 18 K) fastball tops out about 97.
Maddux's (2-0, 1.46, 12.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K) fastball tops out about 86.

Any change we will see Guzman replacing Rusch soon? How many more times will Dusty allow him to get lit up? I'd rather take my chances with Guzman over Rusch at this point.

That's supposed to be "chance" not "change". Duh!

#3 of 4: By ET (April 14, 2006 11:59 AM)
Any chance we will see Guzman replacing Rusch soon? How many more times will Dusty allow him to get lit up? I'd rather take my chances with Guzman over Rusch at this point.

---

ET: Although he is "shadowing" Sean Marshall and is in a perfect position to replace Marshall in the rotation as early as next Wednesday (if necessary), Angel Guzman could be recalled and start in STL next Friday night, or could replace any of the three (Marshall, Williams, or Rusch) the following week (Monday or Tuesday) versus FLA.

From yesterday's Rob Neyer chat:

Mike (Everett, MA): Which blunder in your book will people find the most surprising or at the very least will disagree with?

Rob Neyer: Well, one of my co-authors makes a pretty convincing case that the Cubs shouldn't have hired Dusty Baker. You think anybody will disagree with that?

and then....

Neifi Perez (Chicago, IL): I think Cubs made a fantastic decision when they hired Dusty Baker.

okay fess up, has to be a TCR person...

Ryan Doumit is out for tonight and Joe Randa will be a game time decision. Prior will be throwing another side session today and if all goes right from here on in he "should" be back around mid-May.

Some other info

http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dsspo...

Supposedly Aramis will be back sometime this weekend and Jacque won't return until the LAD series.

Sounds like Hendry is seriously considering bringing Guzman up. From Peter Gammons's journal:

Angel Guzman, 23, once a prize in the class of a Zambrano, made a significant comeback this spring. "His velocity was back up to 95-96," Rothschild says. As he pitches at Iowa, Guzman will be closely monitored for his command, especially of his breaking ball. When asked if Guzman could help by midseason, Hendry laughed and said, "It could be by the end of this month."

I would bring up Guzman and send down Williams, or bring up Guzman and send down Ohman, move Rusch to the bullpen, and the rotation would be, Zambrano, Maddux, Marshall, Guzman, & Williams. Rusch has not pitched well, and if Marshall can turn in a good performance on his next start I think that Rusch belongs in the pen.

#10 of 10: By cubsbaseball (April 14, 2006 01:11 PM)
I would bring up Guzman and send down Williams, or bring up Guzman and send down Ohman, move Rusch to the bullpen, and the rotation would be, Zambrano, Maddux, Marshall, Guzman, & Williams. Rusch has not pitched well, and if Marshall can turn in a good performance on his next start I think that Rusch belongs in the pen.

CUBS BASEBALL: While you're following tonight's Cubs game in Pittsburgh, keep an eye on Iowa's game at Round Rock (Astros AAA club), where Angel Guzman gets the start.

Phil-
Do you really think the Cubs would call up Guzman before they did Hill? Is there any scenario that we would see a rotation with 2 rookies at once? ie: Hill Marshall or Guzman? In reality it can't get any worse than what we've seen lately...

Cubsbaseball:
"or bring up Guzman and send down Ohman, move Rusch to the bullpen,"

If I remember correctly, just last year even some people were complaining that Rusch was a much better option starting than coming out of the pen. But his numbers over the past 3 years don't bare that out:

As Reliever - 3.80 ERA, 4-1, 90.0 IP, 1.61 WHIP
As Starter - 5.05 ERA, 12-21, 308.1 IP, 1.49 WHIP

The mistake here was resigning Rusch for 2 guarenteed years (let alone for $3 million per). I didn't have a problem bringing him back (for a 1 year deal ONLY), but don't promise him anything and get him cheap. Now, he might end up getting cut by the end of the year or we will have to dump him in a trade and eat most of his salary. He had 1 fluke year in 2004, where he resembled an actual pitcher. This guy's career numbers are 47-88 with a 4.90 ERA. 41 games UNDER .500!!

And please don't give me some obscure stat saying he was unlucky with batting average of balls put in play or some crap. Rusch is not a good pitcher and with how deep people say our pitching staff is, it is amazing that he is still in the rotation. Hopefully Dusty only gives him one more egg to lay and then try someone else. If not, this is on Dusty for keeping him in there.

Ohh, Woody, Prior, Miller.....PLEASE HURRY BACK!!!

Irish, I completely agree,

A. It can't get worse, and
B.at least the young guys appear to be motivated and hungry. (the emotional kind, not the Rusch kind)

MANNY: Rusch's numbers as a reliever may be better than when he starts, but when Rusch comes into a game with the bases loaded and gives up a three-run double, the runs get charged to the previous pitcher and Rusch comes out "clean" (ERA -wise).

I don't particularly like Rusch as a starter, but I like him even less as a reliever because he gives up too many baserunners at a point in a game (last three or four ininngs) when the margin for error is reduced and you can't afford to give up a three-spot.

At least when he starts, even if he puts runners on base and gives up three or four runs, the Cubs still have time to come back. For instance, in his last start, he gave up four solo home runs (one in each of the first four innings) and left the game after five innings trailing 4-0, which was compounded and magnified by the Cubs doing absolutely nothing against Bronson Arroyo.

If Rusch had come into that game in relief with runners on base and then gave up a HR, the damage would have been even worse.

So with Rusch, you either start him and live with him giving up three or four runs every five or six innings, or trade him. The bullpen should NOT be an option.

#12 of 15: By Southside Irish (April 14, 2006 01:40 PM)
Phil-
Do you really think the Cubs would call up Guzman before they did Hill? Is there any scenario that we would see a rotation with 2 rookies at once? ie: Hill Marshall or Guzman? In reality it can't get any worse than what we've seen lately...

----

SOUTHSIDE IRISH: I believe Angel Guzman would get the call to start, then Rich Hill, then Jae-Kuk Ryu (in that order). And I believe David Aardsma is at the head of the line for "AAA reliever first-call," followed by Roberto Novoa. Both Ryu and Hill could work out of the bullpen, too, but I can't see using Marshall or Guzman as relievers. Both have the number of quality pitches needed to be a starter, so they should stay "stretched-out" either in Chicago (until Wood, Prior, and Miller return) or in Des Moines (where they would stay ready and available).

The MLB experience Marshall is getting now and that Guzman might be getting pretty soon will come in handy later in the season if any of the "Big Five" go down. As for using two rookies in the starting rotation at the same time, it should be just until Wood, Prior, and Miller return to action.

Glendon Rusch so far in 2006 has exemplified why guaranteed contracts are bad for MLB. He signs a fat deal and then shows up looking the part. He's completely ineffective. If this was the NFL he'd probably be at home already, if not in the next week or two. I'm nervous to stick him out there again, even against Pittsburgh. And if he gets shelled again, forget it. Bite the bullet. You can't just take a guaranteed L every five days if you see yourself competing this year.

Maybe Hendry will figure out a way to turn him into Derrick Turnbow.

Dusty should give him a "quota" and as soon as he reaches that quota he's pulled from the game. With the '06 bullpen, who cares. Say 2 runs, after that he's done.

I hope when I go see the Cubs-Brews game on the 30th its not Rusch-Williams-Wuertz Day. :(

And I believe David Aardsma is at the head of the line...

With that name, he's probably used to it.

Rob G.

You guys act like Glendon wasn't fat before this year. At least with his extremely small salary there's little reservations to move him to the bullpen or that it would be all that hard to trade him. It's still only 2 starts in April, should we be calling for Z's head as well right now, cause his 2 starts versus the Reds were just as bad....

No, Z has proven himself as a good pitcher in the past(all-star, cy young candidate). Rusch just plain sucks, this year, last year, and every year before. As someone else said above, his career record is 41 games UNDER .500, and that is not worth more than the league minimum. I say release him and eat his salary, or let him eat it. We don't really need another lefty in the pen, do we? He is worthless to this team, and the longer he is here, the longer Dusty can use him.

Somebody start www.FireRusch.com

Aardsma, must have been in the front row in home room back in high school.

Rusch is 15-12 as a Cub. Including his 2003 record with Milwaukee is misleading.

In my humblest opinion, What's wrong with Rusch this year is he did nothing to prepare in the off season, showed up completely out of shape mentally and physically, and it shows.

The guy I saw pitch masterfully in San Diego the day Sammy Sosa was scratched in 2004 (Hollandsworth to RF, Macias to LF) is not this guy. Up until then, as a relief pitcher, he had been horrendous. He pitched 5.2 and gave up 1 ER that day. Cubs won 4-2. He went 8.2 against StLouis in his next, 1 ER. And 7.2 after that with 2 ER versus Pittsburgh.

By mid-July when he was taken out of the rotation, he was 5-1 and had cut his ERA in half.

AZ Phil,

How do you think the Cubs will handle the "starter crunch" that occurs once Wood, Prior, and Miller are all healthy? I imagine Williams will be sent to AAA and Rusch will be the long arm out of the pen... However, what happens if Marshall (or Guzman) pitches well at the MLB level? Do you think the Cubs would consider moving Miller (or Wood, for that matter) to the pen in favor of keeping a hot rookie in the rotation? Assuming the Cubs go to a 12-man staff once their off-days are fewer have starters recovering from injuries, the Cubs would have...

Rotation:
Zambrano
Prior
Wood
Maddux
Guzman/Marshall

Pen:
Dempster
Howry
Eyre
Williamson
Wuertz
Miller
Rusch

Hard to believe this is the same guy

Rusch 1997 Rookie Card

http://tinyurl.com/z5k3e

Rusch in 2004

http://tinyurl.com/ropqm

The Rusch we have now

http://tinyurl.com/zzccx

shawndgoldman: once Wood, Prior, and Miller are all healthy?

Whaaaa??

OK, so consider it a hypothetical situation. If Wood, Prior, and Miller were all healthy and Guzman or Marshall was pitching well, what would happen?

Guzman/Marhsall/Hill/Williams all have options, do the math....

Miller was signed to start and honestly all the kids have plenty to work on in the minors in my opinion.

By end of May, if the stars align and no one is hurt I'd expect:
Z
Wood
Prior
Miller
Maddux

Bullpen
Rusch
Wuertz
Ohman
Williamson
Howry
Eyre
Dempster

But someone always gets hurt. My question is who off the bench gets bumped when they go to 12 pitchers? Pagan is the only w options left. I guess if Cedeno or Murton are really struggling or a trade happens.

#24 of 27: By shawndgoldman (April 14, 2006 03:33 PM)
AZ Phil,

How do you think the Cubs will handle the "starter crunch" that occurs once Wood, Prior, and Miller are all healthy? I imagine Williams will be sent to AAA and Rusch will be the long arm out of the pen... However, what happens if Marshall (or Guzman) pitches well at the MLB level? Do you think the Cubs would consider moving Miller (or Wood, for that matter) to the pen in favor of keeping a hot rookie in the rotation?

-

SHAWN: IF (and that's BIG if) Wood, Prior, and Miller (and Maddux and Zambrano) are all healthy at the same time and all three are functioning as effective starting pitchers, if the planets line up like that at some point this season, then Rusch goes to the bullpen, Williams goes to AAA, and even if Marshall and/or Guzman are pitching well, they also will probably be sent down to Iowa, too, and await their next opportunity (which might not come until 2007).

Personally, I like the idea of using Kerry Wood out of the bullpen, because I believe he could be just as successful a closer as John Smoltz was. Throwing just one inning per appearance and having to focus on just that one inning would be a good fit for Kerry Wood. But I don't think the Cubs would put Wood in the pen unless it became absolutely necessary due to Woody being unable to handle the rigors of starting every 5th day and throwing 100+ pitches per outing.

Has anyone ever considered putting Miller in as a closer? This would follow the same line of thought that has led many to suggest Wood would thrive there. I'm not necessarily suggesting this course of action, but i've never considered it before... Any thoughts?

Rob G.:
"It's still only 2 starts in April, should we be calling for Z's head as well right now, cause his 2 starts versus the Reds were just as bad...."

Have you looked at Rusch's career number versus Zambrano's??? You are comparing apples and oranges. I have a hunch, Zamrano will turn things around much better than Rusch will. Rusch has been pretty much HORRIBLE in his career. 41 games under .500 and almost a 5.00 ERA. Come on. It is amazing this guy is the #2/#3 starter on a $100 million payroll team. This guy should be making $1 million a year pitching for TB, KC or FL.

Guzman was not too good tonight, even though 2 of the runs scored off him came after he was removed. Although he did have nice Ks and did well at the beginning before falling apart late.

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