Caution: Falling Sky

I know it's four hours until gametime, but the last thread was filling up rapidly, so: GAME FIFTEEN IN-GAME DISCUSSION THREAD [PARACHAT] CHICAGO CUBS (9-5, 2nd, -0.5) AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (9-6, 4th, -1.0) Busch Stadium, 7:10 PM CDT Weather: 75 degrees, Wind 8 mph left to right TV: WGN, DirecTV 736 Radio: WGN, XM 187
Mark Mulder, LHP 1-0, 4.05 ERA, 20 IP 10 K, 1 BB, 4 HRJerome Williams, RHP 0-1, 2.45 ERA, 11 IP 5 K, 9 BB, 1 HR
*Juan Pierre, CF Jerry Hairston, Jr., 2B *Todd Walker, 1B Aramis Ramirez, 3B Michael Barrett, C *Jacque Jones, RF Matt Murton, LF Ronny Cedeno, SS Jerome Williams, PDavid Eckstein, SS *John Rodriguez, LF Albert Pujols, 1B Scott Rolen, 3B Jim Edmonds, CF Juan Encarnacion, RF Yadier Molina, C #Aaron Miles, 2B *Mark Mulder, P

Cubs vs. Mulder Jacque Jones: 5-15, 333/412/533, 2 BB, 6 K Neifi Perez: 9-25, 360/393/480, 2 BB, 1 KCardinals vs. Williams Albert Pujols: 1-12, 083/083/333, 1 HR, 2 K Jim Edmonds: 1-13, 077/294/077, 4 BB, 4 K Scott Rolen: 0-9, 000/182/000, 1 BB, 3K

Jerome Williams has allowed 18 baserunners in 11 innings, yet he has an ERA under 3.00. How is this possible? Well, seven of the walks came in his first relief appearance and his first start -- he got shelled in the former case and pitched lucky in the latter. I expect his ERA will come up if his walks don't come down, but whether that happens tonight or not who knows? At least, he's handled Pujols, Edmonds & Rolen well in his career. Besides, we aren't paying attention to how well Jerome is pitching -- we're too busy rending our garments over the injury to Derrek Lee. There is no positive way to spin the two-to-three-month loss of the best hitter on the team (and one of the best in all of baseball last year), so I'm holding on to two pieces of informational driftwood to try to survive this baseball shipwreck: 1. Todd Walker and Jerry Hairston should get more at-bats this way. The smartest thing to do is move Walker to first base, and have him play there every day (or, failing that, against every righty), with Hairston becoming the everyday second baseman. The word that Mike Restovich is joining the team makes me fear that's not going to happen, though -- why bring up a guy to play backup outfielder unless you're going to take your current backup outfielder (Mabry) and move him to first base? Mabry has more experience at first than Walker, and he has the advantage of being four inches taller, but he's not going to make us forget Lee's Gold Glove smoothness. Plus, the offensive drop will be more noticeable if Mabry gets Lee's ABs -- in my plan you essentially replace Lee with Hairston, which I think is better than replacing him with Mabry. Playing Mabry at first every day isn't the best thing the Cubs could do, but I certainly think it's better than trying to trade for a first baseman, especially someone like (as has been mentioned in the comments) Doug Mientkiewicz. That would result in a titanic drop-off offensively that wouldn't be made up for on the defensive side, and given that we're likely to see more Neifi now (as I doubt that Dusty will enact part two of my plan and just let Hairston play second every day) the Cubs can't afford to punt offense at two spots in the lineup for two months. 2. Will Carroll says he "fully expects" Lee to beat the timeline for his return and be back in less that two months. Based on what? I don't know, but I'll take it. So now we have to turn our attention to the Cardinals, who will be out for blood after getting swept at Wrigley. Sure would have been nice if Lee and his career 11-15 against Mulder could be in the lineup. But it can't, so let's try not to dwell on that to much and move on as best we can. Besides, how great would it be if the Cubs could march into New Busch and take two out of three from the Cards without Prior, Wood or Lee?
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Comments

If the Cubs want to win and plan on operating in-house, I don't think there's any other option but to stick Walker at 1B and Hairston at 2B with and occassional Neifi start.
Murph was on the Score being his simpleton self, calling for Mabry to play 1B because Walker has no experience at 1st. Mabry is a pinch-hitter... that's it. He's not half the hitter Walker is. He has no business playing full time and the more he plays, the worse off the Cubs will be.
Hairston's decent OBP skills can fill the 2-hole and Walker either hits 3rd or 4th. Leave Mabry in the dugout.

"Move on the best we can"

Go Bulls! (I'll lt them distract me for the next week or two)

Why isn't Zambrano pitching this series? It's inexcusable that either Williams or Rusch isn't being skipped.

1/2 of april was already a 4-man rotation...the lee situation isnt gonna solve itself next week (even if a big trade goes through).

and quite honestly...looking at Z in the WBC vs. what he's brought to the club so far this year...he could use some time off or something...whatever it takes...

team doesnt have a day off til thursday, either.

more scarily, they dont have another day off for 17 days in a row after that thursday off.

433, I have no idea. I thought that same thing when I did my look ahead at the week on Monday.

The only way to make a trade now for an offensive force that can help us out now and later, and I won't feel bad about trading the Farm for him? Miguel Cabrera, he is a Lee/Pujols/AROD type talent. Who cares if we trade three or four prospects who MAY be something good, when we are getting a bona fide star right now.

Cubs transferred RHP Wade Miller from the 15-day the 60-day disabled list.

This was needed to clear a 40 man roster spot for Restovich.

...a variation of what Az Phil expected. I didn't think that Dopiriak would be brought up to then go on that 60 day list as it would have started his MLB service clock ticking.

Mabry is another Hollandsworth. Great off the bench, but play him an extended period of time and you're in trouble.

I will be curious to see what sort of character this team has. Adversity could cause them to collapse, like far too many Cubs teams of past years. Or it could bring out something interesting ... call it "scrappiness", for lack of a better term.

I like what I've seen so far. The guys on this team, and especially the young players, appear to play as if winning matters. If this adversity can bring them together as a unit and bring out that aspect of the team's character ... well, there might be some lemonade to be squeezed out of this particular lemon.

Well Holly had a nice stretch when Sosa went down in 2004. You can't count on it, but strange things happen. You don't want to put him in a position where you're relying on him to come up big (i.e. Holly in LF in 2005), but when you're forced to (i.e. Holly in RF in 2004), it's not unreasonable to HOPE for a 2 month hot streak.

Re: #10. See also Neifi in April 2005. You just can't expect it to last.

It's also possible that Restovitch is coming up to replace Pagan, at least in the short term. Dunno what the long term plan is.

My friend and I will drive down to see Maddux pitch on Sunday, with or without Derrek Lee! Clearly it's not good, but it's not a catatstrophe because *drumroll* the Cubs didn't trade Todd Walker this winter!

But yeah, I think ruz hit the nail on the head. We should be good enough to keep competing during this stretch. Just keep fighting them out and we'll be able to hang in the race. If the Cubs think they're outmatched, they'll fold, and then if that happens it's time to clean house.

So let's get off to a great start this weekend and get some wins (especially Sunday)!

Go Cubbies!!!!!

Murph was on the Score being his simpleton self
-
Don't get me started on an anti-WSCR rant. It has become an unlistenable station. Bastion of Black Sux ugliness and taunting from their regulars and all the juniors. Murph is the only card carrying Cub fan left but he's gone off the deep end because he's forced to talk so much flagship (flagshi* ?) BS such as giving away cell tix every two minutes. Yeech.

Mornings used to be decent with Murph but now that he's been banished to the outer Mongolian noon time slot and North/Hubner is the most unlistenable WSux pablum programming of all time.

Is Carlos Pena still available? He'd be an interesting, low-cost option.

Anybody pay the stupid fee to read ESPN.com Insider stuff? I'm curious what this guy has to say?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/column...

Will Carroll says he ìfully expectsî Lee to beat the timeline for his return and be back in less that two months.
---

Will Carroll may be on to something...

I wonder if it's because they will use the Exogen bone stimulator on his fractures. It's well known in the ortho community but the expense makes it impractical for most people to use it.

From my post #52 yesterday:

The fact that the distal Radius and Ulna are showing fractures, in a high level athelete, they will probably consider using an Exogen (www.exogen.com) ultrasound system which the company boasts data accelerates fracture healing by as much as 50% in this type of injury (fresh fractures). The company that markets this device has studies showing reduced cast time by 22% with 38% faster return to normal activity. The gadget is expensive (about $3,000) but requires only 20 minutes of use per day. Most fresh fractures don't get treated with this device because it's so expensive and these fractures heal without it but this is an ideal situation to consider it as time is of the essence.

38% faster return to normal activity equals:

12 weeks x .38 = 4 1/2 weeks sooner

...so we'll see what wonders of modern medicine can do (maybe)...or at least show that it's just voodoo marketing.

Blockhead, I think someone quoted it in the comments of the last post...

Woody Paige just called Neifi Perez an "error machine" on Around the Horn. How did he get his first writing job, let alone get on TV?

$3000 is 'so expensive'? Are you kidding me? Do you know who much a freaking MRI machine costs? Cubster, did you mean $30,000 or $300,000? This makes no sense.

Chad...this ain't even close to an MRI machine...it's basically a small unit that I guess you use to send electrodes or something to the injury. It's not a full scanner, image mapper. look at the thing.
http://www.exogen.com/patients_caregivers/_pa...

$3,000 looks plenty expensive for that sucker.

Blockhead...so you measure the worth of something by its size? Interesting...

And yes, I know that opens up things for a great many jokes.

But $3,000 really is not that expensive in the medical world.

Dave, that was my point.

Blockhead, I know damn well what an MRI machine costs. Dave summed it for me a little better.

For any professional organization dealing with medicine (including but not limited to ALL professional and major collegiate sports) $3000 is chump change.

J. Pierre cf
J. Hairston Jr. 2b
T. Walker 1b
A. Ramirez 3b
M. Barrett c
J. Jones rf
M. Murton lf
R. Cedeno ss

and adam dunn is pitching

We need to start a TRADE FOR MIGUEL CABRERA CAMPAIGN!!!! Everyone on this forum who has called for getting Cabrera is ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!!! Let's get the word out and not stop clamoring till we get him. Screw "wait till next year"....let's start with "wait till we have Miguel!"

Yeah, if that machine gets Lee back one day earlier, it will have paid for itself many times over.

I'm hoping to see Hairston and Walker at 2nd and 1st, with Neifi and Mabry spelling them occasionally. Cedeno will also have to step up because Neifi won't be playing SS as often. I'd like to see us sign a Pena or some lefty masher to split time with Walker, and have someone else to play first, and knoch the Pitching staff down to 11, at least for a couple weeks.

The only question I have is will D. Lee end up with enough ABs to qualify for the Triple Crown? :-)

Is it potential good news that Miller was placed on the 60 day DL and Lee wasn't, or am I reading too much into that?

Blockhead, I posted from that Neyer article on the last thread somewhere. Nothing too interesting, although he did note that Baker would use Lee's injury as an excuse to put "one of the worst hitters in major league history" on the field more than he should. (Guess who?)

We need to start a TRADE FOR MIGUEL CABRERA CAMPAIGN!!!! Everyone on this forum who has called for getting Cabrera is ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!!! Let's get the word out and not stop clamoring till we get him. Screw "wait till next year"....let's start with "wait till we have Miguel!"

Forget Miguel! I want Albert Pujols! Or maybe Santa Claus! The Easter Bunny! God himself!

Just because he's on the Marlins doesn't mean that they will just give him to the Cubs because the Cubs are in a big market. He's got a career OBP of .366 (.386 last year), slugging of .523 (.561 last year), he currently makes $370,000 (oooh the money the marlins will save by trading his contract), he's only 22 and his number one comparable by that age is HANK AARON. You couldn't trade Derek Lee for him straight up - you'd have to throw in somebody. Maybe, and only maybe, two years ago you could have made a Mark Prior for Cabrera trade, but that's it.

Crazy Cubs Fan - well you fit your name. I'm hoping what you said is in jest - for your own sake.

I think the Cubs could have Cabrera for something in the vein of Murton, Hill/Guzman/Marshall (pick one), Pie, maybe have to throw in E-Pat. By next year Cabrera starts making big arbitration dollars...

But that deal wouldn't happen until the trade deadline or next season...

So that is the Cubs' strategy? Try to take out the Cards 1st baseman? Hmmm. Maybee...

jeez..poo-holes has one more HR

The Cards 1st baseman is either really good this year or he's found some really effective supplements...;-) The next 3 games will be a real test for the Cubs. We'll see how they adapt to life without Lee.

Mark this date down on your calendar folks--this is the day the up-until-now over-performing 2006 Chicago Cubs limped into the "new" Busch Stadium (nice original name, losers) and gave the Cards a jump-start to yet another division title by getting swept.

I bet Dusty Baker doesn't ONCE order his pitchers to drill Poo-hole, either. Somebody has to do something to so this guy down. Either a HBP or a new 'roid test. How many bald 25 year-olds do you know?

(posted in the wrong thread)

I was just reminded, BTW, that while I was at that fateful game, my wife (who is a baseball fan) decided to check in on the game. Sure enough, she tunes in just in time to see that very fateful accident.

Coincidence? I think not! For I took her to Wrigley last summer and got those awesome front row behind the plate seats. And that was the game that Prior broke his arm.

Of course she was watching with me on the bad day (you know the one I'm talking about).

So I say, blame her.

Williams is giving the Cubs NO CHANCE tonight...He's not throwing strikes and he's pitched over 40 pitches in this costly inning. Dusty will be into the Bullpen sooner rather than later.

ugghhh.... should we watch anymore??

2nd question, does/should williams start again this year??

Answer to Question 1: Yes.

Answer to Question 2: Hell No.

Crazy.... you're right, what the hell else do we have to do tonight... maybe we can make this a slugfest

williams wouldnt suck so bad if lee didnt get hurt

Novoa looks decent so far

This new stadium is another fake retro home run palace. Just watching all of the color red makes ny eyes burn. Ugh!

Rob G. do you you think the Marlins would get that much for Cabrera. (are you talking about the Marlins's Cabrera?)

I think they'd settle for less

Williams wouldn't suck so bad if he didn't suck.

Hey, I just noticed that Robots is on HBO Family. Tough call...

Yet another reason why the rotation for this series should have been Williams-Maddux-Z. Then, when Williams blew up, Rusch would be available in long relief. When you have an off-day, you make use of it so that your best starters stay on regular rest and your expendable starters are passed over. This is one of the many reasons why.

In retrospect, Rusch-Maddux-Z would have been the best option, but I don't blame Dusty for not having a crystal ball.

He sucks so bad he blows.

Ronald Weiner... I just love the name

Its like that Robot in space-balls

He went from suck to blow?

Looking at those highlights of Collisions, if Choi were still a cub, Furcal would have been destroyed.

btw....Kasper just said that there are moral victories in a 7-0 game.... nice

THe cubs would suck, but Furcal'd be hurting

The comeback begins...

Nothing like a 3 run homer by Barrett -- this is promising...lots of baseball left in this game...;-)

Hell yeah!!! Go Barrett. Let's hope for payback for the 3 HR-Pujols game in 2004 after the Cubs got up 8-2 after 2 innings.

You knew it was going to be a long (i guess short is more accurate) night for Williams when he couldn't put away Yadier Molina after being ahead 0-2 in the count ... all of his pitches appeared to be straight as an arrow, coming around the same speed. No "out" pitch for sure.

Contrast Williams perfomance tonight vs. Sean Marshall's outing against the Dodgers Wednesday where Sean struggled with his command early and gave up a two-run bomb to the dodgers 8th man in the lineup in the 2nd inning. Marshall got very deliberate and slowed the game down, got himself composed and worked out of his early command rut. Didn't hurt that he had that awesome yacker of a curve to bail him out when he got ahead or even in the count.

Maybe Novoa should be converted into a temporary starter...He's performing very well...I'd feel much better with Roberto Novoa as a starter...It's worth a try Dusty...I have a hunch Novoa could be MUCH more effective as a starter than Rusch or Williams.

Dusty, you will regret pulling Novoa too soon...So far Roberto Novoa is the only Cub pitcher tonight that has been able to contain the Cardinals offense.

novoa went 2.2ip w/ 32 pitches.

there's an offday thursday, and none after that for 17 games.

novoa's never been able to pitch a starter's load, even in the minors when he was a starter he struggled to strong enough to get his innings in without injury/rest needed.

Tomorrow's pitching match up of Rusch vs. Ponson got me thinking about the other fattest combinations of starting pitchers....Let's see....Sabathia vs. Colon, Livan Hernandez vs. MIke Hampton, David Wells vs. Anybody?

I just heard that Rich Hill only gave up 1 run in 6 innings tonight...He has an ERA so far this year of about 1.42...Why not have Rich Hill replace Jerome Williams and try him out again as a starter this year...? What do the Cubs have to lose...? We clearly need better starting pitching than we are getting from Williams.

that may happen (hill)...or wuertz may come back up.

aardvark cant be too much longer for the bigs...he got worked and there's no day off til thurs.

Crap like Barrett getting doubled off to the end the game really irritates me. In the grand scheme of this game, it doesn't matter. But come...know how many outs there are. Rididulous.

It reminds me of Alou back in 2004. Things happen, but stupid baserunning just seems inexcusable.

On a positive note, having Lee in the lineup tonight wouldn't have mattered.

bah...

I just heard that Rich Hill only gave up 1 run in 6 innings tonight...He has an ERA so far this year of about 1.42...Why not have Rich Hill replace Jerome Williams and try him out again as a starter this year...? What do the Cubs have to lose...?

Can he throw strikes yet? I really like Hill and all, but he really ticked me off because the one Cubs game I went to last year was the one where Cinci whooped his ass.

Aardsma is experiencing the same thing. They both have funky out pitches that AAA batters will swing at, but the biggies don't.

Can he throw strikes yet?

Did you watch today's game? Or Spring Training? Jerome Williams can't throw strikes.

I am just worried about Wood's setback, which Len and Bob basically downplayed, but still.

I don't know how to reply to that logic. Replace Williams (who you say doesn't throw strikes) with someone who also allegedly doesn't not throw strikes? That doesn't make sense.

If Hill can hit his locations now, than great, bring him up, otherwise I'd rather see Ryu. (Let the bird jokes commence.)

why not trade rich hill and felix pie for miguel cabrera?

is this outlandish?

I'm no expert on these matters, but I'm pretty sure Florida has to agree to trade.

Chris, I'm with you. I know he hit a 3-run HR for the only runs tonight. Fact is he got doubled off because he forgot how many outs there were... in the 9th. What does it say when you forget how many outs there were at the end of the game? Don't tell me he's got a St. Louis honey (isn't that a misnomer) he couldn't wait to get to. All in all a humiliating game by the Cub... it seemed predictable as well. Damn.

i think a trade right now is a stupid idea, why waste prospects to get someonene who might not ven be that great? for only 2 months also. id rather see a minor leaguer come up thats hungry and wants to help the team

*i think a trade right now is a stupid idea, why waste prospects to get someonene who might not ven be that great?*

Are you talking about the idea to get Cabrera? I think he's more than good. Plus, he and DLee can sit around the dugout flashing their WS rings so they other guys can see what one looks like before they retire.

*id rather see a minor leaguer come up thats hungry and wants to help the team*

Trouble is, Dusty wouldn't play 'em.

Plus, the Cubs have nobody left who is ready to contribute.

Oh, well.

Where was the 3rd base coach at the end of the game? Barrett was standing on 3rd watching the popup.

I'd like to believe Lee's injury will rally the team to play the best fundamental baseball and really go out there and over succeed. It's possible and I like this group of Cubs better than any team they've had since they made the late season trades in 2003 and before all the whining began. This club has good characters -- young-- aggressive and that is certainly what it's going to take to keep from falling out of it. That really is all we can hope for--not to fall out of it. And so far in this early season I don't see any team running away with the division anytime soon...but that could change--lets hope not.

I can't help but think this is one of the breaks (pardon the choice of words) Baker needed to get his contract extended. He can say the club was over .600 winning percentage when his best star athlete went down and they couldn't keep that pace up for a long haul without Lee. I think most owners would understand that. To win the division any club will need to be at .600 or thereabouts so Baker could benefit from the very early season success and Lee's injury. If the club goes out and plays with great fundamentals and smart baseball and plays with enthusiasm Baker could be a lock for an extension.

Not the news many on here want to hear (I'm not a Baker fan as you know) but I can see this playing to Baker's benefit (and if the Cubs play good baseball in spite of Lee's injury than I really don't care who the manager is--even Baker).

I just don't think the rah-rah, win one for the Gipper stuff really works in baseball. Football and basketball, maybe -- those sports involve intense amounts of adrenaline and body-on-body struggles and contact where having that extra incentive and drive can make a difference. In baseball, on the other hand, success depends largely on precise, careful actions and reactions(i.e. waiting for pitches and delivering the bat precisely to the ball, reacting to batted balls, reading pitchers, making proper throws to proper bases, etc.). Adrenaline and motivation don't help in many of these situations -- in fact, they could actually be a detriment. In many ways baseball is more like golf than football.

Further, if a key injury like this is what it takes to motivate these highly paid professionals to improve on fundamentals and "the little things", then that is pathetic.

Saturday lineup is verrry interesting (per Len Kasper on ESPN1000 this am:

Pierre
Cedeno
Walker (2B)
Ramirez
Mabry (1B)
JJones
Murton
Blanco
Rusch

giver our DLeeless situation, I kinda like it.

typo: given our DLeeless...

I like that lineup to, considering Dlee gone and all....EXCEPT FOR JONES HITTING IN THE 5 HOLE! Dumb, dumb, dumb...he'll go 0-4 today as the Cubs lose 2-6

What did I miss? I was watching Robots is on HBO Family. Did the Cubs win?

Believe it or not, I like saturday's lineup. Walker will get some rbis today.

Jones is actually in the 6th hole there.

He should be 7th, after Murton, but Dusty is dead set against that for whatever reason.

anytime jones is up vs. a righty it shouldnt matter to anyone where he hits.

historically he's good to great vs. righties...power, average, and ob%.

slow start for him, but he's quite conisitant on feasting on righties.

given our DLeeless situation, I kinda like it.

If Jacque Jones is in it, I don't like it.

Crunch told me about Wood's delay in pitching last night....

Kerry Wood experienced some muscle tightness below his right armpit after warming up for a three-inning simulated game against rookie leaguers Thursday in Mesa, Ariz., forcing him to postpone the outing.

The Cubs don't expect it to delay Wood's rehab from shoulder surgery by more than four or five days.

But that isnt even the most interesting news. Remember how we have been hearing Prior is making spectacular progress?

Mark Prior, who is third in line behind Wood and Miller in the pitching rehab lane, threw 25 pitches of batting practice Friday. The Cubs have not mapped out a plan for Prior's return, but it's unlikely to be before the start of June.

June?!?! That is the first time they have put him into the June category. It has always been May.

Everything was pointing to a Mid-may return at the latest, now suddenly we are going to be into June until we see him?

you guys act like rehab is an exact science, setbacks happen, it sucks, move on...

Kerry Wood experienced some muscle tightness below his right armpit after warming up for a three-inning simulated game against rookie leaguers Thursday in Mesa, Ariz., forcing him to postpone the outing. The Cubs don't expect it to delay Wood's rehab from shoulder surgery by more than four or five days.

This just means Wood isn't right and they are going from "everything is okay...just something doesn't feel right"...to "we're getting a precautionary look at it to make sure he's okay to pitch" to..."Well we took some time and now he has to work his strength back up"...to "Something doesn't feel right and it's not related to the armpit discomfort--this is something entirely different...he'll be day to day until he's ready."--to "He's ready to throw wet towels now...YIPPEE~!" to "He's ready for his 2006 debut" (around July) when he'll pitch 80 pitches...next game 110 the third game he'll leave in the second inning with "precautionary pain"...and won't pitch again that year.

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