Derailing D-Train

GAME 19 REVIEW
CUBS 3 MARLINS 1 W: Sean Marshall (2-0) L: Dontrelle Willis (1-1) SV: Ryan Dempster (6) Recap | Box Score | Play-by-play | Game Chart| Photos
Apparently Dontrelle had some crazy streak of never losing in April in his career. That was before he met the his lefty match, the one, the only, THE Sean Marshall. An efficient 7 inning, 96 pitch outing (AAA lineup notwithstanding) and Marshall comes away with his 2nd victory of the season while Willis's streak ends. I only listened to the game on XM radio, but I'm guessing the chilly weather and the fierce wind blowing in helped suppress the score. The Cubs adapted to the weather well though, executing "small ball" to perfection. After an Aramis Ramirez walk, #5 hitter Michael Barrett sacrificed Ramirez over and "Marlin-killer" Matt Murton brought him in with a single. In the 7th, the Cubs added 2 more runs after a Barrett double (in which he jammed a finger sliding into second, luckily he was scheduled for a day off tomorrow), another RBI hit by Murton (this time a double), a sac bunt by Jacque Jones (at least he can do something against lefties) and the most exciting play in baseball, a suicide squeeze dropped down by Jerry Hairston, that was good enough to not only score Murton from third but Hairston was safe at first(later to be picked off by Willis). Howry gave up his 2nd run of the season in a rocky 8th inning, which included having to face Miguel Cabrera representing the go-ahead run. Dempster though shut the door in the 9th with a 1-2-3 inning and his numbers so far this season are a Gagne-like: 10 K, 3 BB, 0 HR, 11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, .154 BAA. Another shining example of how spring training numbers don't mean a thing. A bona fide winning streak now at three games, with the major league debut of Angel Guzman tomorrow in the sunshine. A sweep would be quite nice against these guys.
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Comments

Was Sean Marshall on tonight or what? OK, OK, so the Marlins stink and the wind was blowing in but it's pretty clear to me this guy has what it takes to be a decent major league pitcher. Good curveball, decent command of the fastball. He just never seemed to be in trouble tonight. His next start will be against the Pirates. Methinks his ERA may continue to plummett.

Cubs are 2-0 on homestand and 12-7 on the season. Tomorrow is Guzman's first career start. Matt Murton is on fire. Let's keep it going boys!

Was Sean Marshall on tonight or what? OK, OK, so the Marlins stink and the wind was blowing in but it's pretty clear to me this guy has what it takes to be a decent major league pitcher. Good curveball, decent command of the fastball. He just never seemed to be in trouble tonight. His next start will be against the Pirates. Methinks his ERA may continue to plummett.

Cubs are 2-0 on homestand and 12-7 on the season. Tomorrow is Guzman's first career start. Matt Murton is on fire. Let's keep it going boys!

you can say that again

Nothing wrong with getting some hype going for Marshall. He's one guy who showed up when the time was right and he got his shot....maybe the Cubs are thinking about who they have before they let another Dontelle go in a trade.

Marshall's last three starts have gone well, with tonight's wind and playing the Marlins he was good. He'll get another shot vs. Pittsburgh, and then it'll be on to see if he can fool a team or two on the west coast. I like what I've seen so far with him as a rookie. In comparrison to other starters (Rusch, Williams, Z) he's been great. To have one of the broken down three come back to the rotation would be money right now.

With the pitching and the defense I think we aren't going to shoot ourselves in the foot like we have the past two years, and that's a bigger plus than having Lee in the lineup. Our offense needs to keep with it's 5 runs a game, and just limit the errors.

Maddox, Z, Marshall, Guzman (we'll see what he does Wednesday night), Prior/Wood (within the next 2-3 weeks with the schedule they are on) I like the way that looks.

We need to win these games, 'cause the Reds certainly won't. St. Louis has looked mortal so far this year, and Clemens sounds like he won't pitch until June 1st, so we just need to stay the course while our guys find their way to Chicago.

still early, but reds have been averaging over 6 runs a game...and a giving up about 5 a game.

its been a shame the past 2-3 years seeing some nice bats go to waste cuz of crap starting AND a crap pen.

good for the cubs, though...

the good and the bad of the upcoming schedule...

the bad: after thursday there's 17 games in a row with no day off...

the good: unless you're drinking the 'miluakee is good' water or you like SD/SF's chances...the cubs don't really face a solid team through the whole stretch.

cubs have 3 weeks until they face a rather hands-down competitor...the wsox (may 19-21).

it gets pretty rough after that (aside from a florida series after the wsox) until the cubs roll up in detrot in mid-june.

Crunch, is the "'Milwaukee-is-good' water" MGD? Whether it is or not, I'm with you...the Brewers have some nice young players, but I'm not putting them in the WS just yet. I do worry that they have the potential to cause the Cubs fits, though, as did the Reds of last year (and this year I guess). I'm not going to guess at exactly how, though, 'cause you *know* Ned Yost is reading this.

In past years I've dreaded long stretches without days off, as those Cub teams seemed to tire easily...but I don't feel as strongly about it for this team. Maybe it's how they seem to keep hanging around in games they have every opportunity to lose. I'm saving my dread for the White Sox series this year...that could get ugly.

Rob Glowacki: Howry gave up his 2nd run of the season in a rocky 8th inning, which included having to face Miguel Cabrera representing the go-ahead run.

I keep hearing how rocky of an outing Howry had, honestly I didn't see it. If you mean rocky in terms of results, that's fine, but his stuff was real filthy and it was purely dumb luck the fish were able to score one on him. He was consistently nailing the black on the outside. His 4-seamer had a ton of life on it.

crunch: unless you're drinking the 'miluakee is good' water or you like SD/SF's chances...

Nah, the Brewers don't have playoff material, but they do have a good team. It might be a tough series for the Cubs.

I'm going this Sunday, so I'll get to see Z & Capuano face off. Hopefully it warms up.

You've got to hand it to the Brewers with respect to being as competitive as they are considering their payroll. Maybe they're giving out beer&brats bonuses on the side ...

How much longer will we endure the Restovich experiment? He looks like a big strong kid, but he has not been able to create any meaningful contact. Pagan should be near the end of his 15 day DL. I'd much rather see Angel making contact and spraying the ball then Restovich's mighty whiffs.

Perhaps Dusty will give Restovich one start and give Walker a day off, though I would be wary of cooling off Walker's bat.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/cubs/cst-spt-k...
"Carlos Zambrano vowed never again to break a bat over his left knee, as he did after striking out Monday.

"That only happens when, you know, like when the stars and the moon go together -- what's that called? -- yeah, an eclipse,'' he said."

I didn't know Ricky Henderson was on the squad this year.

Last year I was pretty hard on Dusty but I have to give him credit. The Barrett bunt worked out perfectly and he's pulling the right bullpen triggers. The decision to stay with Howry ( warm pitcher on a cold night) was excellent. The personnel changes have definetly made him look smarter...

I think we all know that Walker at first is a liability. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jerome Williams traded for a big league 1st baseman. Tony Clark? They can't wait until the end of June to do something. They need a May trade.

The stat heads at "transmission" could help me but I'd like to know the win share comparision of a 1st baseman that hits 20 homers and 70 rbi's vs. lee's expected output of 40, 110. I'm guessing we're looking at about 6 games.

Mienkiewicz wouldn't give us enough offense but is capable defensively. I'd say Clark has to be the leading candidate.

As for Restovich, I'd say you need to keep him over Pagan until the 1st base situation is resolved.

I'll have to play some hooky today. I'm dying to see the Angel.

I'd like to know the win share comparision of a 1st baseman that hits 20 homers and 70 rbi's vs. lee's expected output of 40, 110. I'm guessing we're looking at about 6 games.

Maybe over the course of an entire season, but over 6-8 weeks? Not nearly that much.

I'll have to play some hooky today. I'm dying to see the Angel.

Tivos are cheap, brother. Get a Tivo and if you can stay away from the Internet during the day, you can get home and watch the game as if it's live.

My wife gets upset:

MLB Baseball conflicts with One Life to Live
One Life to Live will be cancelled.

Sorry, hon.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Jerome Williams traded for a big league 1st baseman. Tony Clark? They can't wait until the end of June to do something.

That's some power-brokering by Hendry if he can pull that off: LaTroy Hawkins for what would end up being Aardsma & Tony Clark. Props to Hendry if that happens.

Too bad I'll be following this one on Gameday; I've been spoiled by getting to see Z and D-train (to say nothing of Marshall's excellent performance) in person on back-to-back nights. I'm anxious to see how Guzman does after the very rocky path he's taken to the majors, and his matchup against Olsen (hot prospect, Chicago-area product) is intriguing, to say the least.

Re Barrett's jammed finger: if I mention that he can't really throw anyway, does that make me a glass half-full guy, or a glass half-empty guy?

I cannot remember being more excited about a major league debut than today. Mark Prior perhaps. But he debuted the year we signed him, there was little build-up in the minor leagues, no flashes of brilliance in Spring Training like we saw out of Guzman in 2003, his come-back (of sorts) in the Fall League last year. And it's the perfect situation for a debut...an afternoon against a AAAA team.

I was also at the game last night. And I just want to say what a treat it was to see Marshall's yakker making Marlins whiff. That thing really moves. It's generally between 73 and 75 mph, but there were a couple 68ers. Coupled with the low-90s fastball, Marshall's pitching made for some confused Marlins and some happy Cub fans.

I cannot remember being more excited about a major league debut than today. Mark Prior perhaps. But he debuted the year we signed him, there was little build-up in the minor leagues, no flashes of brilliance in Spring Training like we saw out of Guzman in 2003, his come-back (of sorts) in the Fall League last year. And it's the perfect situation for a debut...an afternoon against a AAAA team.

By carmenfanzone: "As for Restovich, I'd say you need to keep him over Pagan until the 1st base situation is resolved."

I don't think you send Pagan to the minors and keep Restovich under any circumstances. Pagan is very good right now. I know it will never happen, but I prefer seeing Pagan over Jaque Jones. Some day, Pagan wil be a regular star, either with the Cubs or another team. He has a god swing, and good eye, speed and defense. He will only get better with playing time.

Restovich is a good AAA ball player, but will never stay in the big leagues.

To Cubs need more players with a god swing.

(sorry I couldn't help myself)

I keep hearing how rocky of an outing Howry had, honestly I didn't see it. If you mean rocky in terms of results, that's fine

As I mentioned, only listened to the game on XM, so the fact that enough guys got on to get Cabrera up as the leading run qualifies as rocky in my opinion. Glad his stuff looked good though...

Nothing wrong with getting some hype going for Marshall.

Anybody notice what Marshall does between innings when he's pitching?

He sits next to Greg Maddux and talks and listens and learns.

We have a talented young pitcher who recognizes the chance to learn from one of the best there was/is/will be.

Refreshing, no?

Cool I have a typo in my post poking fun a typo :)

Oooh, if Angel Pagan was ready, the Cubs could have two Angels on their roster playing today.

Wasn't there some movie about angels and baseball? IIRC, it was somewhat lame and had Danny Glover in the Dusty role, but Glover did not wear the high-tech specs.

And even if the Cubs need to keep Restovich around for "just in case" first base, hopefully Bynum will be sent packing when Pagan is ready.

My favorite Dusty quote for today, from Cubs.com:

_______________

Jones entered Tuesday's game batting 0-for-5 against left-handed pitchers. Baker said he considered sitting the outfielder against the Marlins southpaw starters.

"Before you sit a guy against lefties, he has to fail in front of your eyes first, not in front of other people's eyes or where he came from...

"Maybe we can give him a philosophy on how to hit lefties."

The squeeze isn't as exciting as stealing home. Of course stealing home happens once in a blue moon.

I graduated from Crystal Lake South, like Olsen, - and I could have gone today's game and passed. Am I an idiot or what?

As for the "sure it was against a AAAA team" comments about Marshall - it's true, it was. Then again Rich Hill had a great game last night and that gets people excited too - in the real minor leagues. Nothing wrong with that.

Guzman better start to show he's real good, the Cubs hung on to him for a long time when they possibly could have gotten something for him. Let's hope he was worth it huh.

"Maybe we can give him a philosophy on how to hit lefties."

Become righthanded?

paytonrules...South sucks! I graduated from Crystal Lake Central. :)

Re #12, carmenfanzone, and #13, scott de b,

The difference between Clark every day at 1B and Walker every day at 2B, as opposed to Neifi/Hairston at 2B and Walker at 1B, is small but nontrivial.

The stathead stat to use for this is Marginal Lineup Value rate (MLVr). This is the stat published by Baseball Prospectus that considers the number of "additional runs" a player creates for a team above the average player, without regard to positon. (We need to think this way because we are comparing Clark's output to Neifi/Hairston). One way to think about it is how many more runs would a team score above or below average if their batting order consisted of 8 average guys and the player in question.

Clark's project MLVr for 2006 is .166 -- or .166 additional runs per game over a lineup of 9 average players.

Neifi's MLVr is -.171. Hairston's is -.059.

If you assume Neifi and Hairston split, their combined MLVr would be -.115.

So Clark over Neifi/Hairston would be .281 (.166 minus -.115). Or .28 runs per game. Over 50 games, that is 14 runs. Using the "10 runs=1 win" rule of thumb, that is 1.4 Wins.

Would trading for Clark be worth a 1.4 wins? It of course depends on what you give up and what you gain. The problem with Tony Clark, in my mind, is that he can only play 1B for us. Ideally, if we were to trade for a bat, I would like to find someone who also could play a credible 3B and 1B, a player that will still be useful once Lee comes back for resting ARam. That does not mean we overpay for Ty Wigginton, but why not think about Eric Hinske, a quintessentially average player with a projected MLVr of .005?

That's okay Dave apparently Crystal Lake's rival is Cary-Grove due to constant football clashes - so sayth wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crystal_Lake_Sou...

I know last year that South and Cary-Grove were both very good - but when I went there 10 years ago our chief rival was you putzes.

HIS NAME IS MATT:

From CBS Sportsline's Game Log for the Marlins vs Cubs game yesterday,

The MARLINS looked like fish out of water tonight. The CUBS new young ace MARSHALL pitched a gem, going 7 strong, with 7 strikeouts. DEMPSTER came in and shut the MARLINS down for his 6th save. The CHICAGO offense came in the form of MIKE MURTON, going 3-3, with two ribbies.

Anybody else notice that John Koronka has three wins for the Rangers already?

Im glad to see Marshall pitch well lately. His first two starts werent that awful and his last 2 have been decent. All he has to do is be effective, not great, just not awful until Prior or Wood or Miller get back. Then he can do some long relief or be the Williams replacement in the #5 spot or the Rusch replacement in the #4 spot.

If the Cubs dont lose every start he makes, maybe if they win half of his starts, then we will be just fine.

One benefit of Tony Clark is that he is productive and cheap, .166 MLVr for about $1M this year and $1M next year. He is one of these underappreciated yet productive players.

Another interesting and expensive Diamondback idea that we might see floated would be Shawn Green. The Cubs could play him at 1B until Lee comes back, and then put him in RF (bench/trade Jacque). Green projects a MLVr of .097; Jones is average (-.002). If Green playes 50 games at 1B until Lee comes back and then the last 90 games in RF, the Cubs will have added almost 20 runs (19.51) over their current course.

Green, of course, would be insanely expensive--he is owed $19.5 million for this year and next (assuming any rational team would buy out his 2008 $10M option for $2M). That's a lot to pay for 2 wins!

I would be surprised if the Cubs trade for anybody in the near term, ie, next several weeks. As someone else mentioned, our schedule is not too bad the next month. If we continue to play at a .600 or better clip for the next month, and that is conceiveable given our schedule, the urgency to make a trade goes down, I think, to the point that Cubs will not make a trade. I also agree that it is questionable how much we really gain trying to trade for a guy like Tony Clark for several reasons: 1) Would it mean less playing time for Walker because then he would be back to the platoon at second base. Walk should be an everyday player. 2) What would we have to trade to gain what might be a negligible upgrade for an insignificant period of time?

A month or so from now, when the schedule gets tougher, we figure to have at least one and possibly two of our rehabbing pitchers back. With a staff and relievers like we will have a month from now, would it just be wiser to go with what we have for the month or so after that, taking us just about to the all star break? My view is let's just stand pat.

michaelweaselo: I'm more worried about Rusch than Marshall or Guzman.

Juan "la tortue" Pierre

the turtle

Arm: I agree, especially on Walker being an everyday player. He is a ballplayer in the purest sense of the word...we need him and Murton in there every day.

Marshall sitting in the dugout picking Maddux's brain is the single most exciting thing I've seen this season. I hope he starts to download the entire Encyclopedia Madduxia!

Picking Maddux's brain? My guess is that he spotted some hot blondes in the stands and he is learning some good pickup lines from Mad Dog.

Well, I'm a bit worried about Guzman.

He hasn't done anything yet this year to inspire confidence that he's going to be ready today.

Marshall was very impressive in ST but Guzman was having trouble with his pitch location and rhythm. Last I looked he was still having those problems with Iowa. Here's hoping Rothschild found a quick fix.

CWTP: Well, I'm a bit worried about Guzman. He hasn't done anything yet this year to inspire confidence that he's going to be ready today.

Numbers don't give the whole story. In ST (the only chance I had to see Guzman & Hill pitch) Guzman was hitting his spots much better than Hill was.

Jordan: I hope he starts to download the entire Encyclopedia Madduxia!

Oh yeah! Of course with 20 years of experience, he's going to need many more innings sitting on the bench with The Professor.

I'm still holding out hope that once The Professor retires 15 years from now, he'll become the Cubs manager or at least pitching coach.

ESPN insider has something on the Cubs being interested in Pena?

Anyone with Insider access care to clue us in on where this might come from....

Ryno: I really hope Maddux stays on as the Cubs pitching coach when he retires. I also want to see him retire as a Cub!

I don't have Insider access but if the Yanks don't call Pena up by May 2nd, he can be released from his contract...

Well, I'm a bit worried about Guzman. He hasn't done anything yet this year to inspire confidence that he's going to be ready today.
_________________________________________________

Well, 23 strikeouts and 3 walks in 16 1/3 innings in Iowa gives me reason to be hopeful. The four home runs are a reason for concern. But it is a opportunity (day game, bad offensive team) to see what Guzman can do.

Here's the Insider blurb:

Bronx tale or Second City revival?
Apr 26 - The Yankees have a decision to make whether to call up veteran first baseman Carlos Pena from Triple-A Columbus, the Newark Star-Ledger reports. If the team does not add Pena to the roster by May 2, he can demand his release.
The Cubs are believed to be interested in signing Pena after they lost All-Star first baseman Derrek Lee to a broken wrist.

Hands up, who still thinks Dempster isn't the right man at the right price?

Far as Pagan, isn't his injury bad enough that he won't come off the DL when eligible to? I thought I read 4-6 weeks.

I wish Hendry would do something about his bench. I felt good coming out of Arizona after seeing what Mabry and Pagan did, and knowing that JHJ and Neifi were available, too. Now, Pagan is out and JHJ/Neifi are playing regular because of Lee's injury. Restovich sucks.

Could we get Matt Stairs from KC? I like him better than Tony Clark because Matty Ballgame can play the OF. Or what about Victor Diaz? What are some other options?

Echo on the earlier comment, really looking forward to the Gooz' big league debut. If Marshall and Guzman are the real deal, well....things will be looking up for us, indeed. We can dump Rusch after June 15th and if Guzman gets the job done, I think we've seen the last of Jerome Williams.

CWTP: "Well, I'm a bit worried about Guzman. He hasn't done anything yet this year to inspire confidence that he's going to be ready today."

RYNO: Numbers don't give the whole story. In ST (the only chance I had to see Guzman & Hill pitch) Guzman was hitting his spots much better than Hill was.

I SAW HIM PITCH IN ST as well, in Tucson. He was having trouble locating and from his record (4K's 7BB's 11 IP) that wasn't unusual. He'd look good for two batters then suddenly lose it, get it back, lose it.

But he was classy. He looked like a major league pitcher on a rehab assignment.

Guzman normally has had exceptional control throughout his career. You never know what all the injuries may have done to him, but it's something I don't worry about.

Picking Maddux's brain? My guess is that he spotted some hot blondes in the stands and he is learning some good pickup lines from Mad Dog.

Chicks dig the long ball!!!

"it's something I don't worry about."

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