Avoiding the Sweep

A few quick notes... - Jake Fox will play some left field and first base when he goes to the AFL, along with right field and catching that he's already doing in AA. Grant Johnson was moved to the bullpen when he returned from the DL in June and it looks like that's where he'll stay. Reports are that his velocity is back in the low 90's. - Then there's this weird article from the Trib headlined: "Marmol's pitch count too high, Baker says". Baker says Marmol throws too many pitches early in a game but then says guys get put on the DL right away now when before they'd pitch through it. And here's a fun quote talking about Maddux throwing 167 pitches in a game early in his career:
"If I left somebody out there 167 pitches, you'd [criticize] me."
Is he saying that high pitch counts can lead to injuries (like in Marmol's case) or that pitchers today and their organizations are just wimps? Once again you baffle me Dusty. He also downplayed that whole USA Today article about Cubs fans being racist. As for our current Cubbies, nice to see the real Angel Guzman step up yesterday even if the offense couldn't crack the wife-beater(let me guess, the fans at the park didn't boo Myers?) for most of the night. Guzman's got the repertoire of a #1 pitcher and he just needs to get the experience that the last few years of injury took from him. The kids going to be good if he can stay healthy which you can probably say about 95% of top pitching prospects. Speaking of top pitching prospects, Cole Hamels and his 10.30 K/9 rate show up today. I wonder if him and old pal Lee Gwaltney (now in the Cubs minor league system) got together and toured the Wrigleyville bar scene this week. Have a few drinks, get in some fights, use your pitching hand to throw a punch and then get one of your friends released because he's a bad influence. It should be a fun pitching matchup, the over/under on Zambrano's walks today is 7. Get your bets in. Go Cubs! GAME ONE HUNDRED-TWENTY-SEVEN IN-GAME DISCUSSION THREAD [PARACHAT] PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (64-62 (Div) 2nd- 13.5 GB; (Wild Card) 3rd - 1.5 GB) AT CHICAGO CUBS (53-73 (Div) 5th - 13.5 GB; (Wild Card) 12th - 12.5 GB) Wrigley Field, 1:20 pm CDT Weather: Cloudy, 75 degrees, Wind out to CF @ 9 mph TV: WGN Radio: WGN, XM 187
Carlos Zambrano, RHP 13-5, 3.34 ERA, 177.2 IP 173 K, 98 BB, 19 HR 206/317/360 againstCole Hamels, LHP 6-6, 4.40 ERA, 90 IP 103 K, 33 BB, 13 HR 237/304/423 against

#Jimmy Rollins, SS #Shane Victorino, RF *Chase Utley, 2B *Ryan Howard, 1B *David Dellucci, RF Chris Coste, C Joe Thurston, LF #Abraham Nunez, 3B *Cole Hamels, P *Juan Pierre, CF Ryan Theriot, 2B Aramis Ramirez, 3B Phil Nevin, 1B Matt Murton, LF Michael Barrett, C #Angel Pagan, RF Ronny Cedeno, SS #Carlos Zambrano, P

Phillies vs. Zambrano: Abraham Nunez: 2-17, 118/250/176, 3 K, 3 BB, 1 2B Jimmy Rollins: 3-14, 214/267/286, 2 K, 1 BB, 1 2B Jose Hernandez: 2-10, 200/400/200, 4 K, 4 BB, 0 XBH Cubs vs. Hamels: No Cubs have ever faced Hamels
Hey look, Jones sitting versus a tough lefty. You go Baker!
Return to Homepage

Comments

maddux throwing that many pitches is impossible.

everyone knows that for every time a guy goes over 120 pitches a game you can subtract 1.47816 years from their career.

for every pitch over 140 pitches you can also subtract a year.

mathmatically, maddux is not only injured, but his HOF career is a fruad. if this guy gets in the HOF based on the career he shouldnt have had they might as well tear down the HOF and start over.

there has NEVER been any pitcher ever...EVER...to pitch more than 140 pitches a game without having to get an arm transplant. history shows this pretty clearly.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5900788

Carlos Lee stays with Katz as his free agent btw.

And I guess he likes Houston..

The news, however, could be a welcome development for the Astros, who are expected to make a strong push for Lee if he becomes a free agent. Lee, who owns a 100-acre ranch outside of Houston, is believed to be seriously interested in the Astros.

also...
The Orioles, Cubs, Cardinals and Giants are among the other clubs expected to show interest in Lee.

not to really press the issue since its based on assumption, but the 2 years that hendry got extended also match the time period of a chunk of the deals he's made.

its pretty probable he's gonna splash in the FA market, not out of a 'freak out' keep-your-job type thing, but more as a 'complete your plan' type thing.

he's got these deals and signees that are his guys, his vision, etc...

its pretty doubtful unless his purse strings gets strangled (or he has a bout of bad luck or stupidity) that he'll just go for a couple role-playing pieces.

....or unless he stays true to the pattern he's shown oner his tenure...

Crunch:

Gee, I can hardly wait for Hendry's latest "big splash" in free agency. Jeff Suppan Fever, Catch It!

Although I will say, if Hendry's going to make a splash, he's poised to do it this offseason.

Anybody catch this quote from the Gewaltney story (the "get one of your friends released" link)?

ìThe Cubs do things a lot differently,î Gwaltney said. ìI like it a lot better here as far as their views on which running programs we do. With the Phillies, we were pretty much run straight into the ground by the time August rolled around.î

Ah yes, our superior, slack-infested conditioning program. How's that working out for Marmol, Marshall and Prior these days?

Hendry made a splash last weekend at the pool at the Drake. He fell in by accident, damn near drained the whole fucking pool. Wet party guests were un-amused.

Baseball has changed. You need 2 good pitchers and at least 1 or 2 innings eaters to get you through the regular season (marathon). Once you make the playoffs, you need two studs, two good bullpen guys, some sticks and some solid defense. Its really two different seasons.

That said, the Cubs need one more ace. I like their bullpen and their pitching depth has improved considerably given all the innings these youngs have been given. They can easily afford to "out bid" even the Yankees for Jason Schmidt. If they have to over pay or give an extra year of contract, its worth it. Especially if they have two or more major league minimum guys in the rotation.

If the cubs sign schmidt and he flops are you all going to blame hendry for doing what you have wanted to do all along?

while jason schmidt looks like he would be a good pick up, i wonder about his health. Hasn't there been some issues with that over the past couple of seasons?

#7 of 10: By dbt (August 24, 2006 01:34 PM)
Anybody catch this quote from the Gewaltney story (the "get one of your friends released" link)?

ìThe Cubs do things a lot differently,î Gwaltney said. ìI like it a lot better here as far as their views on which running programs we do. With the Phillies, we were pretty much run straight into the ground by the time August rolled around.î

Ah yes, our superior, slack-infested conditioning program. How's that working out for Marmol, Marshall and Prior these days?

I did catch that. Also note that Gwaltney has missed almost this entire year due to injury. Coincedence?

so running foul pole to foul pole decreases injury?

pitchers hating running is old as time i think.

if they wanted to be OF'rs they'd be OF'rs hehehe

When Myers was on deck, I explained to my wife what happened and that he would probably get booed. I didn't hear a single boo and was surprised by that.

Is Murton in the lineup twice so he can get more ABs?

Just kidding.

Another note about last night: Bynum's relay throw was a little offline, but it looked like he might have a pretty decent arm. Just wanted one positive thing said about Bynum, for the hell of it.

"Another note about last night: Bynum's relay throw was a little offline, but it looked like he might have a pretty decent arm. Just wanted one positive thing said about Bynum, for the hell of it."

Then I wish Bynum and his pretty decent arm well on the Pro Bowlers Tour. He sure ain't a major league baseball player.

Yeah, he's pretty good, but for the most part he sucks.

Is there a list out there somewhere of all to-be free agents yet? It seems like even if Hendry wants to, he won't be able to make much of a splash unless he throws a ton of money at Soriano, Lee, Zito, or Schmidt. Who else is available that would be considered a "splash"?

I think maybe we got the wrong Baker. From cubs.com

Baker's 7-year-old son Darren left his dad a message on his voice mail. He knew Theriot made a mistake, too.

"He said, 'Dad, you know you don't make the last out at third base,'" Baker said. "He's 7 years old. He said, 'Dad, if he went on his own, it's his fault, and if you gave him the sign, it's your fault.'"

no one...those are the big dogs.

there's fringe guys like lugo, hunter, etc. out there...

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/poss...

be sure to check if there's an option or etc.

like, rivera (nyy) can technically become a FA, but given how the FA relief market is almost literally non-existant beyond 2-3 arms...its almost a sure thing the yanks will take its club option on him.

Aaah, a laugher. Nice.

Of course the Royals did just blow a 10-run lead the other day...

Re: 2007 Season

It is hard to get excited about next season when you consider the Cubs have screaming need for starting pitching help and big need for offensive improvement, yet the free agent market is thin and the Cubs have little to trade without picking away at the foundation (e.g., Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano).

Barry Zito isn't coming to Chicago. It would seem to me that Hendry's strategy must be to make Jason Schmidt the priority, just like Rafael Furcal was the priority last offseason. But in this case we need to get our man. I have no problem doling out $50 million over 4 years for Schmidt. Will he bite? I kinda doubt it, but who knows.

Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee ain't coming to Chicago either. That leaves Hendry to pursue a valuable guy like Ray Durham and perhaps a Cliff Floyd to augment the outfield situation.

I think it is 99% certainty that Juan Pierre signs a multi-year deal to come back.

cubs got plenty of excess arms to trade...and money to spend.

at least they dont need middle relief...its the one thing that's commanding a super-premium.

and about all these people not coming to chicago...says who?

i wouldnt be suprised to see zito not want to come to chicago cuz its not "his kinda city" or attitude or etc, but with the recent hiring of boras unless he's trying to start a south-west bidding war, he's looking to get paid.

Wow...from Cubs.com:

"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me. The problem we have to address more than anything is the home run problem."

Is this a new quote? Or is that what he said a couple of years ago?

It is unbelievable that he thinks having baserunners is "clogging up the bases".

new quote...he just wants to see more power...team's been putting too many guys on and just leaving them there cuz of a lack of slugging that only recently showed up.

btw, today's 11 runs were scored without a single walk.

dust likes contact...baseball 90ft. at a time was killing this club earlier in the year.

The Vanishing Ronny -

So - even in this lopsided 11-1 rout of the Phillies, Cedeno is 0-3?!

The one-year/plus experiment is over, in my opinion.

HE has lost his way at the plate, STILL makes baserunning gaffs, AND is way too inconsistent as a middle infielder. What can he do right now?

Clogging bases?

You have -got- to be f'ing kidding me.

Since when are base runners bad for offense? Lack of pop & lack of run producers in the lineup, sure, that's bad, but it takes a little of both. Like MikeC said in the last post, a balanced lineup.

The Cubs almost had that balance at the beginning of the year, short of one big HR bat, in my opinion.

Re: Ronny Cedeno

Amen to that. Way past due to pull the plug on the Augie Cedeno experiment. Jim Hendry should be shot at dawn if he even considers Cedeno the starting 2nd baseman in 2007. Ray Durham, your table is ready.

"new quote...he just wants to see more power...team's been putting too many guys on and just leaving them there cuz of a lack of slugging that only recently showed up.

btw, today's 11 runs were scored without a single walk.

dust likes contact...baseball 90ft. at a time was killing this club earlier in the year.
"

Slugging and home runs were not things the Cubs lacked the past three years, yet their offense was mediocre to bad each of those years.

Yes they need more slugging, but they need plate discipline and guys who can take a walk even more.

Ryno:

You're guilty of selective interpretation of Dusty's comments. I get his point. The Cubs are terrible at driving home baserunners. Have been for five consecutive seasons more or less. Dusty laments the lack of thunder in the lineup. I happen to agree with him. This is why either Jones or Murton needs to go during the offseason and a big left-handed hitting run producer acquired to sandwich in between Lee and Ramirez. Either that or acquire the aging Cliff Floyd and pray like hell he can give you something playing in combo with Jones and Murton.

At no point in recent history has the club had the "team's been putting too many guys on" problem. They may be LOBing the guys who get on, but there's no surplus of those guys.

Baker apparently wants to go back to the good old days of cranking a ton of solo homers. The Cubs killed the ball in 2004 and didn't have all that many runs to show for it. It's nice to see they didn't learn anything from that experience.

I can't believe it. This is actually a decent lineup.

Mike63,

You are right to say that Dusty is correct in wanting more power. But that stupid crack (and I don't think you're defending him) about OBP actually HURTING an offense is absolutely indefensible for a person who makes his living in baseball in this day and age. If I'm GM, I sit Baker down and confront him with this quote. If this is honestly his philosophy, I tell him straight out that he has no future with the club. This is a firable offense.

another great one from that article...

"I've always said since I started managing that I'd like to have a team full of young guys and young players who you can teach to play the game the right way," Baker said.

okay....

The most important part to scoring more runs with runners in scoring position is to put more runners in scoring position.

Clutch hitting comes and goes, guys who get on base regularly typically do so year in and year out.

I understand the logic behind more thunder in the lineup and I like homers as much as the next guy. However, the Cubs have hit 124 so far this year. In contrast, the Yankees and the Tigers are in the 150s. So, if Derrick Lee is worth about 25 HRs, then with Lee back, we should be as good as the Yankees, which probably is not true.

Thats why I think that the need for pitching far outweighs the need for a Murton replacement to hit more homers. 9 homers isnt alot, but I think Murton gets at least 25 next year. Leave him alone. Go for pitchers.

All these comments about how Soriano, Lee, Schmidt, and Zito won't come to Chicago seem a little ridiculous. Saying Schmidt wants to play in Seattle or Lee wants to play in Houston are one thing, but saying that Zito won't play for the Cubs because Chicago isn't his kind of town is crazy.

First of all, Chicago and San Fran (Oakland) are pretty similar (at least in the summer), and you'd be surprised what a couple extra million dollars per year will do to someone's attitude.

The Cubs simply can't rely on a fair offer and the lure of playing at Wrigley to win big free agents. Furcal didn't go to LA because he wanted to play for the Dodgers or live in Hollywood. He signed there because they made an offer no one else could/would match. Barry Zito or Alfonso Soriano would almost certainly come to Chicago if Hendry made them an offer that was $2m/year better than the next best.

Sadly, that won't happen, because that extra $2m a year is tied up in Glendon's fat ass contract.

Why the hell was Ryu pitching?

Wasn't he supposed to start on Saturday?

Are we saving that spot for Rusch?

And oh yea...Why was barrett hitting sixth?

I am not a big fan of complaining about lineups (unless Neifi or Bynum are in the two hole), but Barrett needs at-bats! And he is your team's second best hitter in your lineup (behind Ramirez).

fun note one should never forget when dealing with free agents. Texas, Florida and the state of Washington don't have a state income tax. So the Mariners, Astros, Marlins and D'Rays can offer less money than other teams.

Also, for my third comment in a row, back to Dusty's idiotic quote.

I would like to see one team that was negatively impacted by a high OBP.

The Psychologically-Blocked Hitter -

What logical reason is there for Aramis Ramirez to not start hitting, three years in a row, until after the 90-day point in the season?

Is this a common trend among 3rd basemen?

Among certain ethnic baseball players?

I certainly can't get away with only working to the best of my ability on - let's say - Tuesdays.

I just don't get the excuse of "he's a warm weather player".

hill's pitching saturday, no starter yet for Sunday but baker said ryu would work out of the bullpen. Rusch, Miller, Marshall are possibilities.

Well said comments at #33 and #35 - couldn't agree with you more.

Nice to see Z have the blowout win today, well earned for sure.

well, i dont think zito's a chicago kinda guy cuz of how weird he is...how he spends his downtime...etc.

he's not a bar and party type...he likes the ocean...etc etc blah blah...

but...and its a huge one (ha, huge butt)...he just hired boras. you hire boras when you want to get paid. depends on what zito wants outta his life at this point.

according to si.com, ramirez's career splits:

april: 250/321/453
may: 271/320/456
june: 304/357/489
july: 275/315/531
aug: 296/350/545
sept: 261/317/448

3 yr splits via ESPN.com(2003-2005):
april: 263/331/485
may: 313/360/490
june: 332/385/563
july: 288/322/596
aug: 271/327/515
sept: 297/374/549

Brenly said today he seemed to think Rusch would probably start Sunday under the pretense of only working a few innings, but that is dependent on how badly the Cardinals gnaw on the bullpen for the next two days.

I'm already pumped up for Carpenter vs. Hill, and I hope Rich is too.

But I thought all of his player's loved him????

http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dsspo...

It should be pointed out that now that Williamson is seeing more regular use his ERA has risen from 5.08 to 5.21.

Look at the very end of that article...

There was once a school of thought that if the Cubs played more night games at Wrigley Field, there would be more of an opportunity for players to get in extra batting or fielding practice beforehand.

However, during most night games this year ó including the three evening contests played this week ó there have been corporations and sponsors who have employees and clients using the field for clinics and batting practice until 3:35 p.m.

"I'm not in charge of that department," Baker said.

It says "most" night games. Which means this isn't a once a month thing. It's pretty regular what is going on.

The Cubs are selling out to corporate sponsors while the team struggles and needs that time to work on drills. Thats some pretty screwed up shit for major league baseball team. Anything to milk every last red cent out of this franchise and continue to put a piss poor product on the field.

Fans should be outraged about that.

I was reading a comment thee other day and the question was asked, that Donny Rowland who was the scouting director for the Angles, should he be considered over Tim Wilken, I was wondering who might have more value, Rowland was just let go by the Kansas City Royals but his drafts were pretty good in Anaheim.

"maddux throwing that many pitches is impossible.
everyone knows that for every time a guy goes over 120 pitches a game you can subtract 1.47816 years from their career.
for every pitch over 140 pitches you can also subtract a year.

mathmatically, maddux is not only injured, but his HOF career is a fruad. if this guy gets in the HOF based on the career he shouldnt have had they might as well tear down the HOF and start over."

Actually the reason Maddux is in going to the HOF is because he threw 167 pitches in one start. Therefor the reason the Cubs pitchers aren't all going to the HoF is that they haven't thrown 160 pitches in a start. It's foolish to pull a pitcher after only throwing 120 or so pitches, how is he going to get to the HOF like that? Hey man, pass that bowl!

How did Maddux do it that game where he pitched over 150 pitches? He faced 4 batters and gave up 4 hits and 3 RBI's.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb...

In his career he's gone over 120 pitches 46 times in 665 starts. 6.9%

Kerry Wood has gone over 120 pitches 31 times in 178 starts. 17.4%
Mark Prior 18 in 106 starts. 17.0%
Carlos Zambrano 30 times in 140 starts. 21.4%

I didn't interpret Baker's comments as saying OBP itself is bad. Rather, he was saying that OBP without some slugging to drive in theose runs leaving lots of LOB (i.e. clogging the bases) doesn't win games. which is true. It's not the OBP that clogs the bases, it's OBP without hits to drive them in.

Wow, I'm shocked. I would think that every player that ever played for Dusty didn't like him. Sheesh.

doesn't seem like he's being used all that often in San Diego either 10 outings so far, given up runs in 4 of those games, one loss and one really bad outing on 8/17 vs the giants: 1.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR

Walker hitting 306/424/469 in August

"In his career he's gone over 120 pitches 46 times in 665 starts. 6.9%

Kerry Wood has gone over 120 pitches 31 times in 178 starts. 17.4%
Mark Prior 18 in 106 starts. 17.0%
Carlos Zambrano 30 times in 140 starts. 21.4%"

Total BS. Probably most of those 45 games were before the age of 30. I'll bet his average was about the same at the same ages those guys are.

Any day Carlos Zambrano wins a game is a great day! And now CZ leads the national league in wins with 14.

He's also solidified his spot in 3rd place in the race for the Cy Young if Bill James' Cy Young Predictor can be believed. Here's how they stand at the moment:

CYP(Cy Young Points) based on pitching record, with 12 point bonus if team wins division title.

131 Billy Wagner, Mets (Wagner gets 119 on his own record plus 12 because NY is a lock to win the division)
123 Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
121 Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
113 Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
106 Aaron Harang, Reds

finesse pitchers/power pitchers not really worth comparing their pitch counts really. Actually comparing anyone to Greg Maddux is pretty pointless. But enjoy....

curiously though where are you getting your pitch count info...

"curiously though where are you getting your pitch count info..."

Did you try the link there?

I wouldn't really call the young Maddux a finesse pitcher, but yeah I am sure he hasn't more than a couple of 120 pitches games in the last 5 years.

"Total BS. Probably most of those 45 games were before the age of 30. I'll bet his average was about the same at the same ages those guys are."

Not sure how that can be total 'BS', those are facts, Chad. Also, I am willing to take that wager: "I'll bet his average was about the same at the same ages those guys are." if 'about' is within a %.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb...

He posted this link. Its under career splits.

Oh yeah, those are regular season stats.

OK Neal I don't know where to get a start by start pitch count for his whole career but if you tell me where to look, I'll do it.

And why is that bullshit? Because stats by themselves in a vacuum are bullshit. Only when stats are taken into perspective do they matter. And your percentages only are valid if

A: Maddux was the same age and pitched for the same amount of years as those guys

or B:

You look at only Maddux first nine years when comparing to Wood, and 5 years for Prior and Z.

thanks, glanced over it

what? Clemens has gone over 120 pitches 199 times in 683 starts
29%

He's still alive?

Smoltz has done it 72 times in 421 starts = 17%

Schilling 90 in 408 = 22%

Johnson 218 in 540 = 40%

If anything you'd probably want to see if they had more 120+ pitch days early in their career.

That was my point Rob.

"The Cubs are terrible at driving home baserunners. Have been for five consecutive seasons more or less. Dusty laments the lack of thunder in the lineup. I happen to agree with him."
--

The Cubs problem for the past 5 years hasn't been lack of power, the real problem has been lack of runners on base.
I wouldn't expect anything less from Duncey Baker.

well actually if they had more 120+ pitch counts when they were older I wouldn't worry much. The real concern is high pitch counts when your young.

Comparing Maddux to anyone is a bit odd to me, the guy was a different kind of pitcher than anyone we'll ever see.

Chad,

Remember back in school when you kept asking why you had to learn this math stuff? How were you ever going to use it in real life?

By the end of Maddux's age 29 season he had made 297 starts. To reach Kerry Wood's rate he would have had to have thrown 50 or 51 x 120 pitch games by that age. Being that he's only thrown 46 in his whole career, I am going to go ahead and say I won the bet.

Chad was never much for that book learnin' stuff all ya'all keep talkin' about

The issue with Prior is that he was overused so heavily in his first full season.
Wood was overused after recovering from a major surgery.

There are certain players who can handle the load like Big Z, Maddux, Clemens, Smoltz.

Some can't. The best approach is to use caution with every young pitcher.
But no one should expect Dusty to understand that, he thinks men on base are clogging the basepaths.

"If anything you'd probably want to see if they had more 120+ pitch days early in their career."

I am going to go out on another limb and say that Clemens didn't throw any 120 pitch games in the bigs before he was 21.

But really, statistically, you're going to lose that argument. The pitcher's abuse points do show that it is extremely rare for a pitcher to be effective the year after he runs up a big score. Personally I think the worse thing is high pitch counts in single innings, particularly as you get later, not necessarily pitch counts in a game.

When you have to use John Smoltz and a 6'10" left hander as examples for it not being a reality - well you're just grasping at straws. For every roger Clemens there are 15 Roger Salkeds, Paul Wilsons, Kerry Woods and Mark Priors.

Cubs under Baker:

(HR/XBH/SLG) rank in NL:

2003: 8/7/11
2004: 1/1/2
2005: 2/2/2
2006: 11/15/12

(OBP/Runs Scored) rank in NL:
2003: 13/9
2004: 11/7
2005: 11/9
2006: 16/16

doesn't seem like power has been the real problem here. Yeah, this year, sure, that'll happen when a 30-40 homer guy goes down and you put Pierre in CF. With Lee in the lineup this year, Cubs are probably 5th in homers this year, possibly higher.

the bracketed word from dusty's quote rob used on the front page (dusty speaking about himself) was "lynch."

seems like a poor choice of words to me; is dusty able to speak about himself in a fashion no body else would be allowed?

*******

how is it possible the cubs score 1 shitty little run on wednesday evening, and unload for 11 runs in 4 innings less than 24 hours later?

"I am going to go out on another limb and say that Clemens didn't throw any 120 pitch games in the bigs before he was 21."

Since he was a rookie at age 21 you would be right. Kerry Wood turned 21 1 month into his major league career.

"Kerry Wood has gone over 120 pitches 31 times in 178 starts. 17.4%"

What did Maddux do in his first 178 starts? Apples, oranges, meet Neal.

Oh and as far as I can see, Maddux has not had a 120 + game in years 2002 - 2006.

""Kerry Wood has gone over 120 pitches 31 times in 178 starts. 17.4%"

What did Maddux do in his first 178 starts? Apples, oranges, meet Neal."

Chad, you are extremely stupid. We're talking about pitchers getting injured and you're saying that Kerry Wood's rate isn't that bad, because he made 119 fewer starts than Maddux at the same age.

Clue, Brain , meet Chad.

I am going to go out on another limb and say that Clemens didn't throw any 120 pitch games in the bigs before he was 21.

yeah he was probably throwing them in college

For every roger Clemens there are 15 Roger Salkeds, Paul Wilsons, Kerry Woods and Mark Priors.

Who's grasping for straws here? Every pitcher who throws a lot of pitches gets hurt? Or every pitcher who's protected doesn't get hurt? No and no.

There's a Bill James study out there where he took the PAP list and ended up with:the "abused" pitchers keep more of their value (on average) than comparable "non-abused" pitchers.

and
Most injuries to pitchers are not the result of chronic overuse; some are, particularly to young pitchers, but most are not. They're catastrophic events, just like a heart attack or a torn muscle. They happen suddenly, and they happen when a pitcher goes outside the envelope of his previous conditioning.

Backing away from the pitcher's limits too far doesn't make a pitcher less vulnerable; it makes him more vulnerable. And pushing the envelope, while it may lead to a catastrophic event, is more likely to enhance the pitcher's durability than to destroy it.

Dude what are you even talking about? The very fact that Kerry Wood has throw 120 pitches 31 times in 178 starts means nothing unless you have something to compare it to.

Is 31 times in 178 starts a lot? I dunno? You can't seem to show me any stat that show that its a very high percentage compared to other people.

if you never look at a baseball game played on the mlb level before 1988-1992 you wont have to worry about not being wrong about pitcher abuse and the magic 120. players just arnet built like they used to...way back in the...ummm 15 years ago.

but i guess back then a fastball was 80mph and the slider didn't exist.

but wow, you could get a nasty gash tripping over those rocks they used as bases.

a guide is a guide...its not a truth, nor a manual of use. 120 is a guide...its a statistical blurb...somehow, always, there's gotta be some kinda breaking/even/max/min point in ANY numbers study.

670 The Score was making a really big deal today about how the Trib sanitized Dusty's quote as pointed out by DC above. They changed "you guys would lynch me" to "you guys would [criticize] me."

I have to agree that this is a really big deal. Journalism 101 teaches that you only use brackets in quotes when it's necessary to clarify a statement in its context, or to remove profanity -- not to hide or sanitize part of a statement, as was the case here.

Why would the Trib editors have done that? To protect Dusty/ To diffuse the already explosive racial issues that have recently arisen? In any case, it's totally unacceptable and even a little scary. Dusty chose to use the word, after all. I gotta think he was surprised -- maybe even disappointed -- to see those brackets.

Dusty was hitting the moonshine or something yesterday...

lynch me

clogging up the bases

team full of young guys

doubt anyone would care much that dusty said lynch me, the bigger story is why is Trib sanitizing it.

chicago...lynching...chicago...

depending on how long the editor has been in the area, he may know chicago and race relations has a storried past with a very rich history...its the south of the north, ya know.

then again maybe its intense supposed reputation would cause a change.

was it the editor? the guy filing the report?

dusty's mom is (or was, dunno if she still is, currently) a prof. of african american history amongst other things.

Re #74

Perhaps the Phillies starting pitcher, and the wind blowing out instead of in, had somethng to do with it.

On OBP and power -- you need a combination. It seemed like D-Lee hit a ton of solo HR last year, because Corey and Neifi were OBP disasters. You want high OBP at the top of the lineup, and power in the middle. Ideally, you want guys on base, who can run (and thus score from 1st on a double) when Lee/Ramirez/Jones/Barrett/Murton come up. Obviously, players who combine OBP and power are the ideal.

wow...you guys seen minorleaguebaseball.com's stats pages lately?

theyre ALMOST logical (still no career breakdown...wtf?).

but there's some in depth splits listed now on general player pages...here's pie's

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/s...

that's nice....

www.minorleaguesplits.com is good too, a little more split info

you can also save some typing and go with www.milb.com

never seen that site...go internet go.

Yeesh, there goes another URL streaming off to the right and disappearing somewhere in the internet ether.

http://tinyurl.com

cubswinthepennant

i dont get involved when you push tinurl on others...so since youre involving me personally, i'll repeat my tinyurl rant in condensed form...

i dont know you...you dont know me...if i decide to post as Rob G or Arizona Phil...i can.

i can be whoever i want with the only accountability being a log check and some detective work.

anyone can come here and tinyurl anything...something legit, a bad joke, a shock site, a browser bomb, or at worst a buffer overrun executing code on your machine taking advantage of a browser's bad code.

im not gonna tinyurl anything for anyone cuz i wouldnt click on a tinyurl from anyone.

btw, yeah, the clutter would be nice to cut down on, but unless/until there's a way to easily audit the other end of the tinyurl link, i just see it as a dice roll.

its great for friends and trusted networks, but this blog is some wide open territory.

I dont think I have ever clicked a tiny URL link. I like seeing whether it is MLB.com or Chicagosports.com before I decide and copy and paste the URL.

I am old fashioned.

Tiny URL should take you to a page that says "this link will redirect you to www.nastygrandmaporn.com..." Do you want to continue?

They should also make this option configurable, it wouldn't be entirely difficult to do using cookies or something. It would cut down the effectiveness of subversive use of the tinyurl.com service.

I know rumor mills are little more than a novelty, but I like to check them out just for the hell of it... this from CBS Sports Rumor Mill...

The Chicago Tribune speculates that the Cubs are not looking to trade Juan Pierre. If Pierre decides not to return, Felix Pie may land the job.

...then this from the Orioles section...

After no deals were made, reliever LaTroy Hawkins will probably finish the season with the Orioles. The Baltimore Sun says the Orioles may even bring him back next season but for less than the $4.4 million he made this year.

Funny how Dusty gets lambasted regarding young players. I think Dusty has proven repeatedly that if Jim Hendry and his wondrous farm system (snicker) provide him with young bonafide talent, then he plays it. Problem is Hendry's system so rarely produces bonafide talent, at least of the hitting variety. And it seems to me Dusty has been one billion million thousand percent vindicated in the cases of Hee Seop Choi (recently DFA by his 4th organization), Bobby Hill (languishing in Triple A for his 3rd organization), Jason Dubois (languishing in Triple A for his 2nd organization), and Brendan Harris (languishing in Triple A for his 3rd organization).

Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton have both played, and played extensively, this season. So too have a crapload of young age pitchers. Dusty deserves a break on this front.

I agree with the whole tiny url thing you guy have been saying BUT, if Rob G. or Arizona Phil posts one, I tend to trust it. When its from Annonymous Observer, I worry.

Dan McGraw, the Trib Sports Editor, is the editor of the Chicago Tribune and not the Beijing or Havana Tribune. His job is to report the news not determine what his readers can handle. He should be fired for that. If he was so offened by Baker's use of the word lynching he could have used the gold old {sic}. I guess Dan was sleeping that day in News Writting and reporting class.

*First of all, Chicago and San Fran (Oakland) are pretty similar (at least in the summer), *

Uhhh, since when does San Fran reach 90 in the summer?

"im not gonna tinyurl anything for anyone cuz i wouldnt click on a tinyurl from anyone"

Sorry crunch, I was pulling your chain for two reasons,

(1) those superlong urls are useless and annoying. Due to this blog software not wrapping the URLS, they stream off to the right and screw up the page. You have to scroll to read them.

(2)Your complaint comes across as a bit paranoid to be sure. What are you so afraid of? Everyone has clicked thousands of hotlinks on the internet that could take them anywhere, there's no guarantee. And worse, it makes no sense at all to say you won't post a shortened link because you don't trust them. If you are the one posting the shortened URL, how could you possibly be harmed?? Or are you saying, you can't be trusted to post an honest link? What?

But that ain't the point. How about wrapping those long URLS? You don't have to use a service like tinyurl.com. Just break the long ones up with this code <br>, the html line break command.

Or use this command to create a hotlink
<a href="PASTE URL HERE"> name of link here </a>

Both will work fine in the TCR comments box.

At any rate, I'm primarily a reader but you put up a lot of posts here, so how about making them and the whole site more readable by not posting those huge URLs?

RE #94

Mike, you don't understand. Those guys were going to be all stars but Dusty ruined them.

Shouldn't anyone be able to post whatever they want? If you don't like tinyurl, don't click it. The long URLs don't particularly bother me. Apparently we have some posters here on the rag.

Anyways, my dark horse pick for pitcher who comes out of the woodwork and starts pitching like a big boy is Kuk Ryu. I liked what I saw of him in spring training and in all of his appearances this year.

He's had a real rough start, sure, but he's been keeping the ball down and all his pitches seem to be pretty lively. He'll just need to calm that wild streak.

I could be wrong, it's been known to happen from time to time (Mitre, I thought he was going to blow everyone away this year...looking like he wasn't too much of a loss now.)

"(2)Your complaint comes across as a bit paranoid to be sure."

computer professional for roughly 8 years now...granted, bowing out currently...but ive seen a lotta innocent things take down enterprise systems.

and honestly...i could create a ton of havok from shell accounts and other's comprimised boxes here. its that knowlege that keeps me knowing that while i may not do it, its possible for others and to spot how they might go about doing it.

yeah, its possible i could have a building im walking next to fall on me tommorow, but ive seen a LOT more computer havok from innocent sources (telnet chatters, email, embedded weblinks, irc, etc) to compare it a building collapsing on me...

btw, your hotlink suggestion is a good idea, though i probally wont impliment it for everything.

for those keeping track Ceda who we got for Walker got moved up to Boise tonight.
4 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Pie was 2 for 3 tonight, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 Runs, 1 2B

E-Pat 1 for 4, 1 K, 1 BB

Iowa 4 back with 7 to play

I predict the Cubs will activate Lee this weekend and trade Phil Nevin.

I know its a very small sample size, but Robinson has been a tear since Joing Daytona 4 games ago:

353/353/588/941 with a homer and 7 RBI

The new player pages on milb.com are worth checking out:

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/s...

Chad and Mike63-
You are absolutely right...I mean, it's easy to see from 100 at-bats or so how a guy will perform in the majors. Right?

Dubois: .272/.343/.494, 292B, 21 HR, 83 RBI
Harris: .294/.379/.453 26 2B, 9HR, 55 RBI

Neither of these two have had an extended shot in the bigs, so who knows? They would most likely never be stars, but could be useful MLB players. Timing sure can play a huge role in a career.

Hill never recovered from a leg injury, and Choi?
Well, you're right on that one...he could never adjust to the up and in fastball.

#97
"Uhhh, since when does San Fran reach 90 in the summer?"

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busines...

San Fran's record highs:
May 97
Jun 106
Jul 105
Aug 100
Sep 103
Oct 99

Chicago's record highs:
May 94
Jun 104
Jul 102
Aug 101
Sep 99
Oct 92

Clearly that doesn't tell the whole story, as San Fran's averages are much lower, but it definitely gets hot there.

Anyway, my comment was based more on the atmospheres of the cities, and not really the weather.

OBP doesnt matter?

To be fair, he never says OBP doesn't matter. Dusty just thinks slugging is more important than OBP. He's wrong. But this is hardly news.

Mike63,

I agree that Dusty does indeed give playing time to many youngsters and that it is not his fault that they all seem to suck. What killed me though was the starting of Neifi over guys like Theriot. Obviously, that specific problem is one we don't have to worry about anymore. But it really never should have happened in the first place. I believe this is the root of a lot of the anger directed at Dusty, all of which he deserves heartily.

#50

If the corporate clinic stuff is done by 3:35, wouldn't that leave plenty of time for baseball activities?

Dusty Baylor: You are absolutely right...I mean, it's easy to see from 100 at-bats or so how a guy will perform in the majors. Right?

People (myself included) like to rush to conclusions based on player's results rather than make conclusions based on their ability and execution. I think even our trusty GM has been guilty of this.

Also, I like looking at the stats and all that, but when evaluating a player, you have to look at the complete picture. Is he an OBP guy, an AVG guy, a base-on-balls guy, a all-or-nothing guy (Dunn), etc.

Here's an example. What's our impression of Auggie Ojeda's year in AAA? Dismal, batting .255? Nevermind he's walked a ton with a .363 OBP. Useful or a bust? I don't know...

Another example: Murton. He's had good results this year, but will his lack of patience and his ability to hit a ton of ground balls catch up with him? Maybe.

Dusty should get together Baylor, who if I remember correctly said that HR were rally killers. Maybe they could compare notes.

"Another example: Murton. He's had good results this year, but will his lack of patience and his ability to hit a ton of ground balls catch up with him? Maybe."

Murton's lack of patience?

but will his lack of patience and his ability to hit a ton of ground balls catch up with him?

I thought that was a description of the newest Tiger's 2nd baseman.

That HR's are rally killers is maybe one of the stupidest, most ignorant things ever said by a person in the baseball business. If I had the misfortune to hire someone who was found to have said such a thing, I would fire that person immediately, knowing that any positive impression I had of his qualifications must certainly be false.

Don Baylor. What a gm f----n' idiot. What would he rather have with the bases loaded? A bases clearing double or a grand slam? Let's say the double occurs, so now 3 runs are in with a guy on 2nd. Say the next guy hits a single to drive him in. Now 4 runs are in. Well now you've got your gm precious rally, but the exact number of runs would have scored with the HR. And no one is preventing the next guy from getting a hit.

Aarrgh! Add this to the stupid Dusty comment of "high OBP hurts you if you don't know what to do with it" (whatever the deuce that's supposed to mean). Why do the Cubs continue to hire such nimcompoops to manage their team?

but will his lack of patience and his ability to hit a ton of ground balls catch up with him? Maybe.

Since when did Murton lack patience?

When you don't even know a damn thing about Matt Murton it pretty much makes anything you say meaningless.

Lack of patience, lmao. And Neifi Perez takes as many pitches as Bobby Abreu.

I have not seen much discussion about the USA Today story about the Cubs, Dusty, Cub fans, and racism. Although I doubt that there are any more racial remarks said in Chicago than are said in New York, Phillie, or Boston - all teams where the fans tend to raz both the opposition and their own players, and let's face it, where there is a strong culture of racial prejudice in the communities (I grew up with it and I heard things from people I went to school with, including law school, that were simply despicable). The stupid hate mail also makes it easy to dismiss all criticism of Dusty as a race thing. Finally, it is the type of article that will make it harder for the Cubs to sign free agents of color (or will at least give their agents an arguement to ask for a "Chicago" premium).

Regarding the most recent comments by Dusty about OBP, they are not to different from the comments made earlier this season by McPhail and Hendry. As an organization, not just the manager, this club does not value OBP. There are some fans, and perhaps on TCR, who believe things will get better with firing Dusty. They won't. Because the philosphy that has corporate sponsors on the ball field until 3:35 on night games, one that invests in a sophisticated marketing department (and the creation of its own scapling, I mean secondary ticket market) while chronically undervinvesting in the scouting and baseball player development department, that philosphy is still dominating, and has dominated ounder both the Wrigleys and the Tribune since 1939. Next freakish wild card or division championship should occur sometime between 2008 and 2010.

Regarding for those on TCR who don't think OBP (or the real important stat: average number of pitches per at at bat), my last appeal to you is to watch the Yankees and se how the hitters up and down that line-up will make pitchers work throwing 7, 8, 9, 10 or more pitches, before getting a hit, walking, or finally making a hard earned out. As for RISP, if you have a RISP average of .250 and in fifty games wou get only 100 runners on base in scoring position, only 25 will score. However, with that same RISP of .250, and 200 runners on base in scoring position fifty gagmes, you have now scored 50 runs. And basically, if you have made up of mediocre players, you are going to have mediocre results no matter what offensive philosphy you use.

On the parent of TCR, http://www.all-baseball.com/, there is a good article on why it may not be the best idea to discard Mark Prior just yet.

The article by the way deals with the fact that lots of great pitchers struggled before reaching their 25th year.

How many of them had shoulder and elbow injuries?

Cub Fan:

I don't know if there's a lot that can be said about the USA Today article. I'm sure everyone here agrees that racist remarks and hate mail are contemptible. As much as people rag on Baker and Hendry, I'm sure the last thing anyone here would do is write such a letter or make such a remark; although I stand second to no one here in my belief that Baker is a poor manager, I am embarrassed that I, as a Cubs fan, should be associated in any way with a person who would do something that cowardly and despicable.

The article, though, does go out of its way to paint the darkest of pictures. For example, it repeats the charge that a ball was thrown at Jacques Jones this year - an incident that was cleared up long ago. (A drunk fan threw a ball onto the field, but she was not aiming at Jones.) The article didn't discuss how common this sort of things is in the majors, nor did talk to any coaches or players who had more positive experiences in Chicago.

Just my $0.02 worth ...

CubFanInGermany:

If you read this post, I link to an article where Dusty downplayed the whole USA Today article, fwiw.

X
  • Sign in with Twitter