Sean of the Draft

So this Rich Hill character has looked pretty good since his most recent call-up and if they do keep him around and he does perform like this for the next 5-6 years, the Cubs get a guy through all his prime years on the uber-cheap. I'll take that. As for today's game, I updated the previews to reflect our race for worst record in baseball. It seems more fun to watch us go for something we're only 5 games back of in September. Go Cubs or go draft pick...either way! GAME ONE HUNDRED-FORTY IN-GAME DISCUSSION THREAD [PARACHAT] PITTSBURGH PIRATES (56-84, 2nd, 4.5 GB) AT CHICAGO CUBS (56-83, 4th, 5 GB) Wrigley Field, 1:20 pm CDT Weather: Sunny, 81 degrees, Wind Out to RF @ 9 mph TV: WGN Radio: WGN, XM 189
Sean Marshalll, LHP 5-9, 5.05 ERA, 108.2 IP 68 K, 48 BB, 16 HR 260/345/427 againstShawn Chacon, RHP (NL Only) 1-2, 4.97 ERA, 21 IP 12 K, 21 BB, 5 HR 278/437/557 against

*Chris Duffy, CF Jack Wilson, SS Xavier Nady, RF Jason Bay, LF #Ryan Doumit, 1B Jose Bautista, 3B Jose Castillo, 2B Humberto Cota, C Shawn Chacon, P *Juan Pierre, CF *Freddie Bynum, 2B Aramis Ramirez, 3B *Jacque Jones, RF #Angel Pagan, LF *Scott Moore, 1B Henry Blanco, C Ronny Cedeno, SS *Sean Marshalll, P

Pirates vs. Marshall: No Pirates with more than 10 AB's Cubs vs. Chacon: Aramis Ramirez: 7-11, 636/667/2000, 4 HR, 3 2B
I think Ramirez has your number Chacon. Just can't stomach to give Soto a start, can you Dusty?
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Comments

This is the worst lineup I have ever Sean!! Go Devil Rays and Royals!

1)Pierre CF
2)Bynum 2B
3)A-Ram 3B
4)Jones RF
5)Pagan LF
6)Moore 1B
7)Blanco C
8)Cedeno SS

Better keep Murton and Theriot rested.....especially against a touogh opponent like Shawn Chacon.....

BTW....Righties are hitting .283 against Chacon...slugging .533...obp of 376, so its not like he's shutting them down.
Great call Sir Toothpick!!!

Chacon will shut us down.

Because thats what shitty pitchers do to us.

And yet for some strange reason people want starting pitching upgrades when we can't even score runs off of the scrubbiest pitchers in the NL.

Is that even a word?

I predict if Dusty is not brought back next year, TCR posts will drop by 50%. Sorry Ruz, I hope your revenue, if any, isn't tied to posts. If it is, you better hope Baker is brought back.

Small mistake on the standings, DRays are tied for 2nd with the PIrates, so Cubs are in 4th right now.

right manny, just like crunch predicted we'd have nothing to talk about once Neifi got traded.

Considering it looks like Chacon walks everyone under the sun, I may have gone with my more patient hitters if I was trying to win a game today.

I'm sorry...
It must be Hendry's fault for sitting Murton and Theriot, and not getting Hank a day off....my bad Manny...

:)

Ohhh Danica Patrick for the 7th today!

http://indymotorspeedway.com/index.html?http&...

well, at least the bench is much stronger with DLee/Murton/Theriot on the bench...so we got that going for us, which is nice.

Freddie Bynum at .245...geez, now that's a player who's earned his starting spot. Don't let the ball hit you in the glove on the way out the door...

Don't worry we got Mabry (bad back and all) to pinch hit for Ramirez if we need to start a rally.

MikeC:
"And yet for some strange reason people want starting pitching upgrades when we can't even score runs off of the scrubbiest pitchers in the NL."

It is because some of us believe that PITCHING wins. You don't have to look no farther than last years CHW and this years Detroit Tigers/Boston Red Sox to show prrof of that. Some of us would rather have a top pitching staff than a top scoring offense. Maybe it is just preference, but over teh past few years, I see the top teams winning with top pitching.

That being said, I still want hendry to pick up a big bat this offseason, but he needs to upgrade the pitching first and foremost.

Is comment #8 related to the Cubs some way? Baseball? Do we think we're in parachat Mike?

I'm a moron Mike, I apolgize, she's singing the 7th inning stretch.
Maybe I should read.

Just ignore me....

So getting Zito and or Schmidt is going to help us beat all those scrub pitchers who have shut us down over the last couple years?

Got ya.

Wow...this lineup is really bad...

Why Bynum? Can't Hendry trade him so Dusty won't bat him second?

"just like crunch predicted we'd have nothing to talk about once Neifi got traded."

that was a joke =p

seriously, though...ive never seen so much discussion about guys in suits, pencil pushers, coaches, and scrub non-impact players.

back in may/june when this team was falling apart and no one was pulling their weight but barrett (and Z and the pen and j.j. with the bat) it was still the suits, pencil pushers, and scrub 1 vs. scrub 2 show.

"Sorry Ruz, I hope your revenue, if any, isn't tied to posts."

Wait a second, I'm supposed to get revenue from this? Nobody told me!!!

MIKEC:
"So getting Zito and or Schmidt is going to help us beat all those scrub pitchers who have shut us down over the last couple years?"

So getting CLee and or Soriano is going to help us beat all those teams that have thumped our pitching over the past couple years?

Got ya....:)

Ruz:
"Wait a second, I'm supposed to get revenue from this? Nobody told me!!!"

Oh we know your move to PA was because you signed that deal that you get $.10 per post....:)

Now you got that mansion in Harrisburg. Don't deny it...:)

Does that lineup make anyone else want to gag? Who has the 2 highest averages? Lee and Murton, I believe? I know it's DLee's regular rest day....but what's the Murton excuse?

Glad I went last night and saw the GS.....this one looks to be u.g.l.y

Amanda:
"I know it's DLee's regular rest day....but what's the Murton excuse?"

I think it is just the idea that Hendry wants to see everyone get playing time. He wants to take looks at Pagan, Bynum, etc.

Oh we know your move to PA was because you signed that deal that you get $.10 per post....:)

So...based on Ruz's posting patterns, that would be about a dollar a year, right? Not too bad! :)

"So getting CLee and or Soriano is going to help us beat all those teams that have thumped our pitching over the past couple years?"

Manny that is why we need hitting and pitching. Which I believe was Mike's point.

You point is that "PITCHING wins" right.

I love it. Hendry makes one comment about Dusty needing to be willing to audition rookies now and then--pretty clearly referring to pitching and particularly Hill--and now Manny has an ironclad excuse everytime Dusty starts a scrub--it's Hendry's fault!

Because, of course, Dusty never started scrubs prior to Hendry making that statement.

Pitching?

Hitting?

Guys, we suck at both and we definitely need both. I predict that in this offseason we shall obtain neither.

RobR:
"Manny that is why we need hitting and pitching. Which I believe was Mike's point."

No, I don't think that is Mike's point at all or at least that is not what he said. From my understand he wants hitting.

"You point is that "PITCHING wins" right."

Yes it is, but I did say this in post #11: "That being said, I still want hendry to pick up a big bat this offseason, but he needs to upgrade the pitching first and foremost." I think Pitching should be addressed first, then hitting. I never said only upgrade the pitching.

Horatio:
"I predict that in this offseason we shall obtain neither."

Well, at least Hendry got his extension, right?

I don't really care what the lineup is. I'll care next spring.

Right, manny, pitching is a higher priority. That doesn't mean the lineup doesn't need that one more big bat, it just means a good pitching rotation is more important. Even more important than the rotation, though, whose next year's manager?

I nominate Lee Mazilli. It wasn't his fault Balitmore sucked.

I nominate Lee Mazilli.

I think you mean Leo Mazzone.

And my guess is that he is not going anywhere. He just got there and I am sure that he would love turn that pitching staff around. If he could make that staff pitch well, he could pretty much do anything.

If Manny's regard for Hendry(i.e. Manny thinks Hendry sucks) is based on truth, then his prediction in #4 will be wrong. If Hendry sucks, he'll hire another bad manager who will prompt just as many postings as Dusty has.

For all the work Hendry has ahead of him to fix this roster, the hiring of another manager is right behind that in order of importance. Hendry needs to improve the players and the manager.

Guys-

It's a day game after a night game, Cubs don't have a day off tomorrow, and it's better for Bynum/Cedeno (I'm OK w/Pagan as 4th OF) to prove they don't belong now rather than next year. Also, better to rest D-Lee too much than not enough.

I really don't get the Henry Blanco thing, though -- is he going to catch every game the rest of the year?

Baker is starting Bynum and Pagan because he believes you can't get an accurate assessment of guys if they sit for more than 3-4 days in a row (which is probably true).

What he needs to understand though, is Bynum is worthless and no longer needs any sort of assessment. Pagan could be a bench player next year, but that's it. Assessment over. Now get back to playing guys who might actually start next year (i.e. Murton and Theriot).

Mike C-
If this is the openning day lineup yeah you're completely right.

But imagine Dlee, Barrett will be back in there, and that a bat is needed at the corner position I said that pitching should be the number one priority.

So the pitching doesn't make the Chris Duffy's of the world look like freaking Mickey Mantle.

I'm more curious on why Blanco starts after a night game.

BillyBucks:
,i>"I really don't get the Henry Blanco thing, though -- is he going to catch every game the rest of the year?"

I don't get it either. Unless Hendry has decided that Blanco is getting resigned for sure and thus Soto has no chance for the 2007 team. Oh well, back up catcher...whoppie!!

An idea...

Are there any centerfielders available this winter that can hit for any power?

Because I wouldn't mind seeing Murton hit leadoff...

"Are there any centerfielders available this winter that can hit for any power?"

Weren't there rumors that Atlanta was looking to move Jones?

The Braves placed him on waivers, but I am not sure they were ever serious about moving him.

But if it was possible...I would take him in a second.

Also, for anyone who believes winning does not correlate to attendance with the Cubs, I put together a little graph of attendance by year from 1970 - 1999. The general trend is upward, but it definitely shows pretty significant spikes from years 1 - 3 after a playoff season (e.g. 84, 89, 98).

As recently as '93, attendance was under 2 million, but then Sosa started juicing and the park started to fill.

During Sosa's big years attendance steadily increased from around 2.2m in '96 to ~2.8m in '98, followed by a significant increase in 2003 and 2004, and very slight drop in 2005.

If the general trend of the graph holds true, we'll probably see a drop of around 250,000 fans this year and next year (if they still suck), and an even bigger drop in 2008 (if they still suck).

Then again, it seems like the Cubs are good enough once every 5 years or so to bring a general rise in the trendline.

PS - Even the bleachers look empty today.

sorry, meant to say 1970 - 2005, not 99

"Are there any centerfielders available this winter that can hit for any power?"

Torii Hunter if you're looking for 25 HR aging vets or Jim Edmonds may be if the Cards don't pick up his $10m option though they probably will considering what else is out there and that outside of Pujols and Rolen their offense is nearly Cubs-esque.

Doug D-
Actually the Cubs are ahead of last year attendence wise.

2005- 38,753 per home game (3,100,262 in 80 games)
2006- 39,637 per home game (on pace for 3,170,000 in 80 home games)

Of course, remember that they added some new bleacher seats this year and most likely attenedece will be below year average down the stretch. But overall I think it will be about 3.1 million just like last year.

Hunter wouldn't be a terrible option.

It would be a lineup that looked like this:

Murton
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Hunter
Barrett
Jones
Izturis
Pitcher

Something wrong with the Yahoo! feed -- every 3 innings "R. Cedeno struck out swinging" automatically pops up.

If he's the starting 2B next year -- we storm the castle with burning torches.

Should be a fun Cubs Convention!

Remember...reported atttendance is different than actual attendance.

Fans that don't show up after buying the ticket still cost the Cubs money in concessions and souvenirs.

The city of Chicago will have over 6,000,000 in baseball attendance this season, first time ever over that amount. I've been to one Cubs game and no Sox games, probably my lowest total in 20 years.

Can Marmol play one of the middle infield spots?!?!

Or be Barrett's backup?

Manny -

Forgot to take into account the 1800 added seats. That will definitely have an impact, but I still suspect it will go down somewhat next year compared to 2004 and 2005.

I really think we overestimate the impact that Wrigley, tourists, WGN, etc will have on attendance if they keep losing. It's really only in recent history that fans have blindly flocked to Wrigley, and I think that has more to do with 2 playoff runs in 5 years (98 and 03) and a larger payroll. If they keep sucking, attendance will drop.

For CWTP:

Quote from Bill James (and your assertion that because Pie has hit o.k. in the minors, its a sure bet he'll do so in the majors - your point on why he should be called up)

"The principle that minor league hitting stats predict major league hitting stats as well as major league hitting stats predict major league hitting stats can be perfectly trueóand yet still not enable me or you to reliably predict who will be successful in the major leagues..."

From SLATE.COM interview.

As you see, your "guy" cannot predict this as an exact science. In his own words.

There were rumblings earlier this season that Wells would be made available for trade during the offseason, but the Jays can probably afford to lock him up long term now that their owner is raising payroll.

if bill james could predict even 1/2 way close to an exact science of non mlb-established players he'd be one the highest paid baseball men in the game.

"Fans that don't show up after buying the ticket still cost the Cubs money in concessions and souvenirs."

Probably not, as the Cubs don't sell concessions. They sub contract that out to a third party vendor.

"There were rumblings earlier this season that Wells would be made available for trade during the offseason, but the Jays can probably afford to lock him up long term now that their owner is raising payroll."

Yeah but that's assuming Wells wants to stay in Toronto which reportedly might not be the case. This is why we're hearing rumors that the Jays may have to look to move him this off-season. However, even though I'd throw Pie, a young starter and another prospect at the Jays, Wells is from Arlington TX home of the Rangers and he's already said that TEX would be his #1 destination come FA and they have a couple young pitching prospects they could deal for Vernon in Thomas Diamond and/or John Danks plus maybe a rare sign and trade(a Bronson Arroyo type slight) with G.Matthews Jr or include Nelson Cruz. If he opts for FA, the Cubs need to make Wells and Joe Nathan priorities #1A and 1B in the 2007 off-season to gear up for '08...which is what they should be doing anyway.

Marmol -- 2007 closer or clean-up hitter? Or both?

Nice to see Cedeno get his bat on the ball.

I was at Tuesday's game and the OF bleachers were half empty, TR sections were about 1/3 empty and I bought a 3 pack of tix on the street in the 224 section for $30 about 5 mins before game time. I believe there were single seat tix left so it probably wasn't recorded as a sellout.

I don't get it either. Unless Hendry has decided that Blanco is getting resigned for sure and thus Soto has no chance for the 2007 team. Oh well, back up catcher...whoppie!!

Is Dusty doing anything anymore?

Billybucks:
Cleanup hitter, closer and backup catcher.

Rob:

You must have missed the memo. Hendry makes all decisions from the top to the bottom in this organization now, and he's always wrong. I'm still not clear on how Hendry can be at fault for managerial decisions that Dusty deserves no blame for, but I'm sure Manny will clear that up for us.

Wow, that Danica Patrick really can sing.

Was she standing on a milk crate?

Why did Moore get replaced with Lee?

Maybe the Cubs need a new scouting report on Chris Duffy -- a .212 hitter goes 4-4 with 2 HR.

Sheesh.

Attendance today - 27,105
Smallest attendance since 9/26/2002.

Can't they just let Dempster fake an injury or something.

Did I mention that they will need a closer also next year?

they already got a guy with a mid90s fastball and a slider who could close...doesnt walk 235728957 guys either.

Kerry Wood?

Hope you fellas don't mind the shameless plug, but these pieces should be right up your alley:

Part 1:

http://www.goatriders.org/ archiv...ase_agains.html

Part 2:

http://www.goatriders.org/ archiv...ins_2.html#more
Mike D. | Homepage | 09.07.06 - 2:32 pm | #

Man, that Dempster contract is now looking almsot as bad as the Rusch contract.

i had a phone conversation with a lifelong Cub fan who's family member works in a local northside bar. Apparently she's seen some of the Ryan Dempster escapades where he is frequently being overserved and he gets to closing time frequently fully kreusened. Typically this stuff doesn't get into the press but I wonder if Paul Sullivan, if interviewed would respond to this kind of rumor. I don't mind a little drinking in the hotel bar but I was told about was nearing the Farnsworth level of frequency and intensity.

Anyone have a local establishment Dumpster sighting?

I guess this ugly season and being Dusty's closer would drive me to drink too.

Center fielders potentially available next year include:

Tori Hunter
Jim Edmonds*
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Mike Cameron*
Steve Finley*
Dave Roberts
Juan Pierre

* Current team holds option for 2007

In addition, rumors have circulated that the following players may be available via trade:

Andrew Jones
Vernon Wells
Wily Mo Pena
Brian Anderson
Willy Taveras

Rob G and Vorare-
Dusty is the guy who makes out the lineup everyday and appears to be the final say on who plays each and every day, but if you think Hendry has not been talking to Baker over the past 2 months about how much time he wants certain guys to play, then I think you have your head buried in the sand. Remember, Hendry said back in July: "you certainly want to take the last couple months to evaluate some people, there are certain days I may try to make some decisions for next year that I need him to be on board with, and he didn't have a problem with that."

If Hendry has any major problems that his lame duck manager is not putting the proper younger players on the field, it is time for him to speak up or fire him.

But my personal opinion, based on his public statements, is that Hendry has told Baker to give all the youngsters playing time and that is what Baker has done. And also let me say I agree 100% with Hendry's stradegy there. Let's see what everyone can do and use this as an early Spriing Training.

Cubster, any reporter who did what you are suggesting would never get another quote from any MLB player as long as they lived.

Ron Galt (from Oct 1, 2005, the day Dempster got reupped):
"I think that by the time the end of this deal rolls around, the reputations of Dempster and Hendry will be half of what they are today."

You get the big GOLD star for today. And to think you were thinking 3 years out, but you were two years early. Basically, by the end of the first year of the deal your idea was correct. Impressive!!

lmao

ESPN SportsCenter, on Danica Patricks rendition of "Take Me Out to the Ball Game":

Yikes!

Could today's lineup have beaten either of these lineups?

9/7/81:
Bonds cf (No, not Barry, but 40+yo Bobby...)
DeJesus ss
Buckner 1b
Durham rf
Morales lf
Davis c
Reitz 3b
Tabler 2b
Bird p

9/7/1974:
Monday cf
Kessinger ss
Cardenal lf
Morales rf
Madlock 3b
Thornton 1b
Swisher c
Dunn 2b
Bonham p

I think they'd have a chance against the 1981 team, but not the 1974 team.

By the way, for the 1974 game, on a Saturday, the Cubs drew 10,632. And for the weekday games of that homestand, they drew: 3731, 1953, 1943, 2918, and 4843. Not in the bleachers, in the entire ballpark....

Remember that MLB rotates who picks first in the amatuer draft between NL and AL, regardless of which team really had the worst record. KC had the number 1 pick last year in the draft, so the NL's worst team gets the number 1 pick next year, regardless of whether KC finishes worst than the Cubs or Pitt. The worst the Cubs can do as far as draft position is 3rd.

Just because they will have a high pick doesn't mean anything though, because it's still Hendry and the Cubs, they don't do anything right.

Giving a closer not named Rivera or Hoffman a multi-year deal worth anything is a sucker's deal. It was a stupid deal the minute they did it. What you're supposed to do when you pluck a "closer" off the scrap heap is trade him for value to one of the idiot teams. Of course, the Cubs, one of the charter members of the idiot team brotherhood, not being able to trade him to themselves, signed him to a three (3!!) year deal. God, the Cubs suck.

By the way, those attendance figures give the lie to the claim that constant sellouts contribute to losing. The Cubs were just as awful then with an empty stadium as they are now with a packed house. The reason the Cubs suck is because the players on the Cubs suck.

MLB abolished the rotating draft rule about 2 years ago I believe. Because the Padres and D'Backs had the #1 picks in 2004 and 2005. Others have mentioned it on here numerous times as well.

I'm sure there's a link somewhere...

To paraphrase the mlb slogan, I live for my draft picks...

Playoff game #1) Boise 5 Salem 1
Pawelek no-hit the Volcanoes for four and two-thirds innings and left with two runners on and two outs in the seventh. Jeremy Papelbon took it from there and picked up the save.

Colvin, Canzler each with 3 hits including a Canzler HR.

ttp://tinyurl.com/mjj4r

I sure hope the CUbs don't plan to have Theriot as their starting 2b next year. There's absolutely nothing in his minor league performance suggesting he's anything above a utility player. We've been down this road already this year - his name is Ronny Cedeno. Hasn't turned out too well.

ALso, starting Pagan over Murton every now and then is more than fine. He's a guy who the Cubs do need to conside as a 4th outfielder for next year given his defensive flexibility. No prblem there at all. I'd prefer him to get his starts over Jones but its nothing to cry about.

I also don't have a problem seeing Blanco catch games with this staff for the rest of the month. Its far more important that the Cubs make a solid evaluation of their young potential starters for next year than evaluate a backup catcher. Those guys need as much help as they can get from behind the plate.

MILKY: Ryan Theriot's numbers at AA in 2005 and at Iowa in 2006 (after he stopped switch-hitting) are better than David Eckstein's last season in AAA and Ryan Freel's last season in AAA, and Eckstein and Freel are the two players I would say Threriot most-closely resembles. Also, Theriot is arriving in the majors at the same age (26 or 27) Eckstein and Freel were when they arrived.

Now, if you don't think Eckstein and Freel are anything more than utility players (and that would be a valid position, although I would disagree), then I can understand why you would not like Theriot as the Cubs everyday 2B in 2007.

Eckstein had a bad year in AAA in 2000 as a RSox and they subsequently released him. And immediately tore up Edmonton (Angels) when they picked him up for a about 15 games. Speculation on my part, but maybe him and Boston just weren't getting along and he could see he was going nowhere in the organziation. It happens.... His previous minor leage numbers were far superior to anything Theriot has done though.

Freel though was nothing special beyond his patience in the minors, at least in terms of his numbers. He seems to actually have gotten a little better in the majors, which is pretty rare.

But hey, I like theriot. You just can't have more than 2 non hr hitters in your lineup in my opinion. Izturis and Theriot would take up those 2 spots.

Since Soto and Reyes only real asset are their defense and they've caught most of these guys in AAA, I don't see any advantage Blanco gives us.

Btw in case anyone still thinks CERA means anything:
Blanco: 5.21
Barrett: 4.57

I don't even care if they split time with Blanco, but they should be given some starts cause if you can get a backup catcher next year for a couple million less, might as well spend it somewhere more useful.

Rob G.:
"they should be given some starts cause if you can get a backup catcher next year for a couple million less"

While I agree Soto should be give a few starts, Blanco's contract averages only $1.35 million over the past 2 years. So the Cubs would only save $1.0 million by going with Soto. But either way we are talking the backup catcher...whoopie...

Speaking of Tim Wilkens and Vernon Wells,do u think there's any clout to obtain Wells.?

At this point million pacific poker river house hole http://www.boltscarcare.com jam hold http://www.boltscarcare.com minus martingale no.

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