Cubs After School Program

48 Cubs prospects will soon be playing in fall leagues in Arizona and Hawaii. A number of other players from the Cubs organization (TBD) will play in Latin Winter Leagues in Mexico, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and the Dominican Republic. * bats or throws left # bats both 2006 CUBS ARIZONA INSTRUCTIONAL LEAGUE ROSTER Pitchers: Oscar Bernard * Jerry Blevins Marco Carillo Julio Castillo Jose Ceda Miguel Cuevas Rafael Dolis * Darin Downs Jesse Estrada Kitt Kopach Kevin Kreier (making pro debut) * Tim Layden * Jeremy Papelbon * Mark Pawelek Jake Renshaw Rocky Roquet * Jayson Ruhlman Roberto Sotolongo Larry Suarez (making pro debut) Catchers: Matt Canepa Jake Muyco * Mark Reed Chris Robinson Infielders: Russ Canzler, 1B * Steve Clevenger, 2B * Dylan Johnston, SS Josh Lansford, 3B * Kyle Reynolds, 3B * Alan Rick, 1B-C # Nathan Samson, SS Joe Simokaitis, SS * Nate Spears, 2B Outfielders: * Cliff Andersen * Matt Camp # Yusuf Carter * Tyler Colvin Ryan Harvey D. J. Lewis * Drew Rundle Jeremy Williams 2006 CUBS ARIZONA INSTRUCTIONAL LEAGUE SCHEDULE (19 games) HOME PARK: Fitch Park, Mesa ALL GAMES START AT 1 PM (local time) unless otherwise noted NO GAMES ON SUNDAYS Sept. 22 - Angels Sept. 23 - Padres (10 AM) Sept. 24 - OFF Sept. 25 - at Angels (Tempe) Sept. 26 - Dodgers Sept. 27 - at Giants (Scottsdale) Sept. 28 - Giants Sept. 29 - at Rangers (Surprise) Sept. 30 - Angels (10 AM) Oct. 1 - OFF Oct. 2 - at Brewers (Maryvale - NOON) Oct. 3 - Brewers Oct. 4 - at A's (Phoenix) Oct. 5 - at White Sox (Maryvale) Oct. 6 - at Padres (Peoria) Oct. 7 - A's (10 AM) Oct. 8 - OFF Oct. 9- Mariners Oct. 10 - OFF Oct. 11 - Team China Oct. 12 - at Dodgers (Peoria) Oct. 13 - White Sox Oct. 14 - Angels (9 AM) --------------------------------------- 2006 MESA SOLAR SOX - ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE: CUBS ASSIGNED TO THE MESA SOLAR SOX: Manager: Pat Listach (2006 AA West Tenn Mgr) Pitchers: Lincoln Holdzkom Grant Johnson * Carmen Pignatiello * Clay Rapada Catcher: Jake Fox Infielders: * Scott Moore, 3B * Eric Patterson, 2B NOTE: RHP Adam Harben (acquired by the Cubs from the Minnesota Twins on September 5th as the PTBNL in the Phil Nevin deal) had been assigned to the AFL Mesa Solar Sox by the Twins in August prior to the trade, but it is unknown if he will play in the AFL as a "Cubs" player, since they have already assigned seven players to the Solar Sox. MESA SOLAR SOX ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE SCHEDULE (32 games): HOME PARK: HoHoKam Stadium, Mesa All GAMES START AT 1 PM (local time) unless otherwise noted NO GAMES ON SUNDAYS Oct. 10 - at Phoenix Oct. 11 - Phoenix Oct. 12 - at Grand Canyon Oct. 13 - Grand Canyon (7 PM) Oct. 14 - Peoria Saguaros Oct. 15 - OFF Oct. 16 - Peoria Javelinas Oct. 17 - at Peoria Javelinas Oct .18 - at Scottsdale (7 PM) Oct. 19 - Scottsdale Oct. 20 - at Peoria Saguaros Oct. 21 - at Grand Canyon Oct. 22 - OFF Oct. 23 - at Phoenix Oct. 24 - at Peoria Saguaros Oct. 25 - Scottsdale Oct. 26 - Peoria Javelinas Oct. 27 - AFL All-Star Game Oct. 28 - Phoenix Oct. 29 - OFF Oct. 30 - Peoria Saguaros Oct. 31 - at Peoria Saguaros Nov. 1 - at Peoria Javelinas (7 PM) Nov. 2 - Peoria Javelinas Nov. 3 - Grand Canyon Nov. 4 - at Scottsdale Nov. 5 - OFF Nov. 6 - Scottsdale Nov. 7 - at Grand Canyon Nov. 8 - Grand Canyon Nov. 9 - Phoenix (7 PM) Nov. 10 - at Phoenix Nov. 11 - at Peoria Javelinas Nov. 12 - OFF Nov. 13 - Phoenix Nov. 14 - at Grand Canyon Nov. 15 - at Scottsdale (7 PM) Nov. 16 - Peoria Saguaros Nov. 17 - OFF Nov. 18 - AFL Championship Game (Scottsdale Stadium) ----------------------------------------------- 2006 HAWAII WINTER BASEBALL LEAGUE CUB PLAYERS Pitcher: * Scott Koerber NOTE: HWBL rosters TBD HWBL SCHEDULE (40 games) NO GAMES ON MONDAYS & THURSDAYS OCTOBER 1 - Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks 3 PM North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires 3 PM OCTOBER 2 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 3 - North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 4 - North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 5 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 6 - Honolulu Sharks at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7:30 PM OCTOBER 7 - Honolulu Sharks at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM OCTOBER 8 - North Shore Honu at Waikiki BeachBoys - 3 PM Honolulu Sharks at West Oahu CaneFires - 3 PM OCTOBER 9 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 10 - Waikiki BeachBoys at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 11 - Waikiki BeachBoys at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 12 - Waikiki BeachBoys at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 13 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM OCTOBER 14 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM OCTOBER 15 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 3 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 3 PM OCTOBER 16 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 17 - Honolulu Sharks at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7:30 PM OCTOBER 18 - Honolulu Sharks at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM OCTOBER 19 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 20 - Waikiki BeachBoys at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 21 - Waikiki BeachBoys at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 22 - West Oahu CaneFires at Honolulu Sharks - 3 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at North Shore Honu - 3 PM OCTOBER 23 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 24 - North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 25 - North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 26 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 27 - Waikiki BeachBoys at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Honolulu Sharks - 7:30 PM OCTOBER 28 - Waikiki BeachBoys at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM OCTOBER 29 - West Oahu CaneFires at Honolulu Sharks - 3 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at North Shore Honu - 3 PM OCTOBER 30 - NO GAMES OCTOBER 31 - Honolulu Sharks at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 1 - Honolulu Sharks at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 2 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 3 - NO GAMES NOVEMBER 4 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 5 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 3 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 3 PM NOVEMBER 6 - NO GAMES NOVEMBER 7 - Honolulu Sharks at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 8 - Honolulu Sharks at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 9 - Honolulu Sharks at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 10 - Waikiki BeachBoys at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM NOVEMBER 11 - Waikiki BeachBoys at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM North Shore Honu at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM NOVEMBER 12 - North Shore Honu at Honolulu Sharks - 3 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at West Oahu CaneFires - 3 PM NOVEMBER 13 - NO GAMES NOVEMBER 14 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 15 - West Oahu CaneFires at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM Honolulu Sharks at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 16 - NO GAMES NOVEMBER 17 - Honolulu Sharks at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7:30 PM NOVEMBER 18 - Honolulu Sharks at North Shore Honu - 6:30 PM West Oahu CaneFires at Waikiki BeachBoys - 7 PM NOVEMBER 19 - Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks - 3 PM North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires - 3 PM NOVEMBER 20 - North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM NOVEMBER 21 - North Shore Honu at West Oahu CaneFires - 6:30 PM Waikiki BeachBoys at Honolulu Sharks - 7 PM NOVEMBER 22 - NO GAMES NOVEMBER 23 - HWBL Championship Game, 7 PM (Les Murakami Stadium) ---------------------------------------------------------------- LATIN WINTER LEAGUES: SCHEDULES TBA & LENGTH OF SEASON VARIES BY LEAGUE Mexican Pacific League (68 games) Venezuelan Winter League (62 games) Dominican Winter League (50 games) Puerto Rican Winter League (40 games) NOTE: The Puerto Rican Winter League is on the verge of bankruptcy, and will likely be subsidized by MLB.
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Comments

"How good is Barry Bonds? For real?"

I was reading comments pertaining to the above topic on NSBB and I thought I will post my two cents up here.

Bonds should be treated as innocent until proven guilty. In recent times we have seen many celebrities escape the clutches of justice eventhough they appeared to be guilty to the majority outside the court house. Booing players for non-performance or more importanly lack of effort is completely understandable. But booing a player just because he is under investigation is unfair. We can all have our opinions. Some of them might be perfectly rational and seem to arise from common sense. But as long as we have the clause 'Innocent until proven guilty' in our judiciary we should learn to follow that.

I think steroids or not Bonds is one of the greatest hitters of all time. Steroids can only make you powerful but they don't teach you patience and pitch selection.We all know that Bonds is one of the most patient hitters of all time. If only one can accumulate the numbers that Bonds has accumulated over the years with steorids then all the WWF wrestlers would have chosen baseball. Bonds has amazing pitch selection abilities. If he doesn't get the right pitch then he is always willing to take a walk, another important trait of a great slugger.

Personally I was very happy the day Bonds passed The Babe and I am looking forward to the day he will slide past Hank Aaron. I will be equally disappointed and sad if he is proven guilty in the near future, but I will always respect his great abilities. There are a number of players in the present and there were quite a number of players in the past who we think are/were juiced up. If we show contempt then we should split our venom among all. But since the above doesn't make us any more great fans of the GAME then we are right now, we should reserve our judgements about the accused to OURSELVES until they are PROVEN guilty.

-cubby..

we boo Barry Bonds because he's the biggest jerk on planet Earth...

"Innocent until proven guilty" is a legal concept meant to put some constraint on governmental action. I am not an arm of government; Bonds used steroids...Bonds used steroids...Bonds used...

I call bullshit.

Without steroids, Barry would not have been able to put on 22 pounds of muscle in an offseason (at age 34), or to train during the season like he did from 1999-2003. He would not have recovered as quickly as he did from those workouts either.
Those allowed him to stay stronger during the year, instead of struggling with the 162 game grind.

He increased his power output at age 35 exponentially, and averaged 45 HR's a year at age 37-39. Oh...and he admitted he "unknowingly" used the cream and the clear performance enhancers!!

Bonds will go down in history as one of the best players that baseball has ever seen, and he could've done that without steroids. Sadly, we'll never know had that player would have ended his career.

"we boo Barry Bonds because he's the biggest jerk on planet Earth..."

There are quite a number of so-called jerks who are very succesful in whatever they do and we don't boo all of them. We worship the greats, the over achievers because we accept the fact that they have done what we cannot do given our limitations. At the same time since we have grown those seeds of contempt towards people who we think are cheaters we develop the resistance to appreciate their greatness. This is completely understandable as we don't need to think highly of our peers who are PROVEN to cheat for passing exams etc etc. But we should not let these dark clouds envelop their true abilities.

I just wanted to mention the above not because I am preaching that bonds is innocent, not because I oppose the charges against bonds, but because from most of the posters around I have seen nothing but contempt for one of the greatest sluggers of all time.

-cubby...

We're just returning the contempt that he has shown for the rest of the human race.

Rob G.:
"we boo Barry Bonds because he's the biggest jerk on planet Earth..."

Speak for yourself please...

Ok-

we boo Barry Bonds because Manny's the biggest jerk on planet Earth?.."

Kidding Manny....

I got a good little story about Bonds. When I was in college at Penn State, during the summer of 1996, I interned at a radio station in Harrisburg, PA (93.5 WTPA). It was not a sports talk radio, but a regular FM music station. Anyway, I wanted to go attend the ASG in Philly that year and thought it would be great experience for me. So I applied for press creds and got them.

To make a long story short, I found myself in the NL locker room just after batting practice on HR Derby day. Most of the players were on the field giving interviews, but in the locker room was Tony Gwynn and Barry Bonds. Their lockers were right next to each other (they said that is how it has been for years) and I approached them to ask for an interview. Gwynn joked that Bonds couldn't turn down an interview to a college kid, so Bonds said sure he would talk to me, but Tony would have to. So I am sitting down with 2 of the GREATEST players of my generation and sure HOF's. It was an awesome feeling. But they both were great to me, and we talked for like 15 minutes, while they were getting changed and stuff. At one point a TV reporter and camera came over to get in on the interview and they both basically said scram that this is an exclusive. At the end I told them thanks for the experience and then Tony whipped out a ball, signed it and gave it to me. Then Bonds said, "Tony ain't gonna out do me." Then he signed one too. I still have them and will NEVER sell them.

It is days like that that make me wish I would of stuck with sports joutrnalism after college.

But Bonds has never irrked me, he was really kind the one time I interacted with him, and I think that is why his antics that rub some the wrong way, don't bother me.

I don't like Bonds but I doubt there's many people who, if given the chance to take a drug (legal or not) that would give them a massive step up professionally and financially, woiuldn't take it. Especially if they knew others were taking it and benefitting. It's easy to say you wouldn't because science has not developed a drug to boost performance in middle management, law, food delivery... whatever. But I think if given the chance, most would.

Hmmm, If Matt Murton gives you a signed baseball will you stop unfairly bashing him?

"I doubt there's many people who, if given the chance to take a drug (legal or not) that would give them a massive step up professionally and financially, woiuldn't take it."

So, Tbone, you think that most professional baseball players are abusing anabolic steroids, HGH, or the like?

CWTP:
"Hmmm, If Matt Murton gives you a signed baseball will you stop unfairly bashing him?"

I actually got a ball signed from him at the Cubs Convention this past year. But I am just looking at the facts man.

"Bonds should be treated as innocent until proven guilty"
He admitted to a grand jury that he did.

"Steroids can only make you powerful but they don't teach you patience and pitch selection"

They also improve your aging eyesight, and make reflexive muscles (the ones that turn on pitches)faster, and allow the abuser to recover faster from nagging injuries.

If they don't help you why do you take them???

" am looking forward to the day he will slide past Hank Aaron."

If he some hows gets out of perjury rap and false tax returns the rep he has of all around great teammate, clean health, and upstanding citizen of the community he will be offered as many contracts as Henry Aaron in 2007 to play major league baseball.

Jacos:
"he will be offered as many contracts as Henry Aaron in 2007 to play major league baseball."

You think Bonds will not get offered a contract by any team? IMO, I think there is no question he will and he will pass Hank Aaron next year.

Jacos-
Barry Bonds may be having an off year for him, but he is still 10th in all MLB in OPS this year. Ahead of MVP candidates Carlos Beltran, Justin Morneau and even Alfonso Soriano.

'most professional baseball players are abusing anabolic steroids, HGH, or the like?'

The point of discussion is not if most of the players are getting juiced up or not. Lets leave this to mlb or whoever is responsible for weeding out such people. The point of the discussion is how much of the above drugs really boost a player's performance. If any player is ACCUSED of wrong doing then should we disregard ALL of his abilities that make him a great player?

Personally I think the performance enhancers can PROBABLY make an AVERAGE player GOOD. But they can never make a good player GREAT leave alone an average player GREAT. I think we can reasonably conclude that by picking up any average player and by juicing him up we will not be able to make a great player out of him. It takes a lot of abilities that makes someone great and we should not let all the negatives cloud the positives.

- cubby ...

"So, Tbone, you think that most professional baseball players are abusing anabolic steroids, HGH, or the like?"

No. They might get caught by testing.

"But they can never make a good player GREAT leave alone an average player GREAT. "

Ok...so Sammy Sosa, who I still have a warm place for in my Cub fan heart, had never hit more than 40 HR's in a year, AVERAGES 57 HR's a year from 1998-2002?

Mark McGuire, injury prone and age 32, all of a sudden hits 52,58,70,65...after hitting 49 once in a rookie season where theere were lots of sketchy HR totals.(Brady Anderson anyone?)

I'm sure that the steroids had nothing to do with those stats either.

Wow...what color is the sky in your world??

Innocent til proven guilty? You're a joke. He admitted it!!!!!!!! So take back everything you just said right now!

"I will be equally disappointed and sad if he is proven guilty in the near future,"

Done. Please write a post expressing disappointment.

"Ok...so Sammy Sosa, who I still have a warm place for in my Cub fan heart, had never hit more than 40 HR's in a year, AVERAGES 57 HR's a year from 1998-2002?"
-
Well, the above holds true, if you consider hitting home runs alone as a representation of true greatness. As I mentioned above there are a number of different factors that mark a great player. As some pointed out above that Bonds is performing very well this season when compared to other players (the comparison doesn't stop with HR's alone) though he is far from his best numbers. In all the away games Bonds gets booed mercilessly and it is very hard to focus when you face so much enemity from everyone. He was under tremendous pressure when he was about pass the Babe. But as we have seen Bonds is doing what he has done and is doing what only some in the history of the game can only do.
Again my point is even if you juice up Neifi Perez you cannot make a Barry Bonds out of him and make his swing any where close to Barry's.

-cubby 78...

"You're a joke. He admitted it!!!!!!!! "

Chad-

Get ready for "the unknowingly" excuse.

"Please write a post expressing disappointment..."
--
Again to re-iterate, I am not in any way expressing that Bonds is innocent. If the findings show that he has taken drugs then it is fair enough to show contempt towards him, but it is also fair enough to appreciate his talents. We can all go see a great movie and might not like the ending. But it is fair enough to appreciate the parts we like in the movie.

Someone above said -

"Sadly, we'll never know had that player would have ended his career"

In the same light, we really don't know if Bonds might or might not put up the numbers he has put without the steroids. What we can certainly appreciate is the sweet swing of Barry bonds.
-Cubby...

"we really don't know if Bonds might or might not put up the numbers he has put without the steroids. "

Oh brother...I have a bridge in Brooklyn I could sell you...cheap.
You are naive...the dictionary definition of it!!

"IMO, I think there is no question he will and he will pass Hank Aaron next year"

He has to get pass over the legal issues listed, and Mitchell's report which is suppose to be out in November.

And if he can by those and the Giants want to resign him (LA and SD won't touch him,Oakland won't spend the money, Angels would be stupid to do so, all this of cousre IMO)Bud will step in and pull the best interest in baseball clause out of his ass and kick him out rather than have to put his arm around Bonds to pass up the biggest class act this league has know, Aaron.

IMO.

post 1-
"Bonds should be treated as innocent until proven guilty"

post 23-
"I am not in any way expressing that Bonds is innocent"

Bonds should hire you for his defense team, then he would have cause for an insanity plea.

A lot is made about the way Barry looked in 2001 compared to 1990 ... but doesn't he look the same now as he did in 2001? Is he still on the juice?

"You are naive...the dictionary definition of it!!"
-
Since you are getting personal here, I just want to say that being Naive about something is much better to the cause then being 100% negative about it.

-cubby 78...

Also, let's not take into consideration the body armor that Barry gets to wear at the plate, or that his strike zone is from the bottom of his belt buckle, to the top of his belt buckle, approximately the width af a carton of milk....

He is one of the best players to play the game, but to say that steroids did not aid him from 1999-2003 is just obtuse.

Um...how is that better? To stick one's head in the sand rather than call him out on the issue?

I don't know you personally, so my comments will not get personal. What you are saying is naive, whether you are or not is unknown to me.

TBone:
"No. They might get caught by testing."

There is NO known HGH test out there, so there is NO worry by the players to get caught using HGH right now.

That being said, I think teh percentage of players who are using performance drugs have dropped considerablly since testing began, but I do still believe there are some using it.

How about this season for Bonds? Even with the scrutiny of the new MLB drug policy he is still putting up incredible numbers. You could make a strong argument that he is the greatest hitter in the history of baseball.

As far as Murton is concerned, someone with a subscription should head to BP to compare his age 24 season (this year) with other similar age 24 seasons. I'd love to hear who his comparables are.

Jacos:
"Bud will step in and pull the best interest in baseball clause out of his ass and kick him out rather than have to put his arm around Bonds to pass up the biggest class act this league has know, Aaron."

I guess we will see come April next year...

"Again to re-iterate, I am not in any way expressing that Bonds is innocent. If the findings show that he has taken drugs then it is fair enough to show contempt towards him, but it is also fair enough to appreciate his talents."

STOP WITH YOU STUPID DOUBLE TALK!! HE ADMITTED IT. HE IS PROVEN GUILTY. GO ON NOW AND EXPRESS DISAPPOINTMENT

"In the same light, we really don't know if Bonds might or might not put up the numbers he has put without the steroids. What we can certainly appreciate is the sweet swing of Barry bonds.
-Cubby..."

Are you kidding? Without steroids there is a ZERO percent chance of him breaking Aaron's record. ZERO!

"Um...how is that better? To stick one's head in the sand rather than call him out on the issue?"

If someone is proven guilty or there is reasonable doubt then you can definetely 'call him out'. You definetely have the right to do so. But at the same time, its fair enough to appreciate certain traits of a player that are factors to propel him towards greatness.
-Cubby 78...

"There is NO known HGH test out there"
True, Manny.

Which why it wouldn't be a stretch to think a guy who used horse steroids and female hormones to use HGH.

Bonds not on steroids=Griffey JR.

"greatest hitter in the history of baseball."

Not even close. A career .300 hitter is not the greatest hitter in the history of baseball. He doesn't even make the starting lineup.

LF Williams
CF Mantle
RF Ruth

"STOP WITH YOU STUPID DOUBLE TALK!! HE ADMITTED IT. HE IS PROVEN GUILTY. GO ON NOW AND EXPRESS DISAPPOINTMENT"
ok sir as it appeases you.

"Are you kidding? Without steroids there is a ZERO percent chance of him breaking Aaron's record. ZERO!"

Its nice to know that you have the crystal ball and came with the answer 'ZERO'. Can you please look into it once more and tell me EXACTLY how many HR's Neifi Perez could have it if he were juiced up? Oh wait, probably I am concluding that Neifi is clean !! (or not).

-Cubby 78...

"If someone is proven guilty or there is reasonable doubt then you can definetely 'call him out"

He admitted it. Why isn't that good enough for you?

"Its nice to know that you have the crystal ball and came with the answer 'ZERO'"

Well all you have to know is Bonds himself didn't think he would be that good, otherwise he wouldn't turn him self into a walking chemistry set.

Are you retarded? Show me any athlete who at age 37 puts together a season like he did in 2001? You really think thats normal? Stop being such an apologist.

We don't have a crystal ball, but we do have his career numbers. Bonds averaged 32 homeruns a year through age 34. If he kept up that rate through today (still dropping one season due to knee surgery) he'd be at around 637HR at the end of this year. Based on that projection, he'd have to continue playing for four more full seasons at the same production level (to age 45) to reach Aaron.

That's all assuming that without roids he would have been able to maintain a solid performance level through his late 30s, and I think that's a mighty big assumption.

Murton's comparable players:

Lee Walls
Rondell White
Rick Reichardt
John Barnes
Emil Brown
Mark Quinn
Xavier Nady
Ken Berry
Jeffrey Leonard
Bernie Williams
Lyle Overbay
Rick Manning
Bruce Bochte
Jerome Walton
...to name a few.

Hell, if there were steroid allegations about Bonds and he hit 73 home runs at age 30, I could give you some leeway but your head in the sand routines is just gross.

"I hear nosing" - Col. Klink

Why is everyone so upset like I just got done fucking your dead grandmothers? Bonds is one of the best things ever to happen to baseball. If he really did juice then all players should be allowed to do it - or dare I say encouraged to do it. The game would be better. Of course Barry juiced - and if testing went away next year, I hope he would do it again and hit another 55.

Besides, what kind of man isn't willing to take 10-50 years off his own life to hit a ball a little bit better for a few more years? Drugs are good Mmmkay.

By the way Cubs fans... Where's all the Sammy outrage? He had more juice in him than a Tropicana warehouse.

That was strange.

""I hear nosing" - Col. Klink"

Sorry to be a TV nerd, but I believe that was Schultz's catch phrase.

We aren't nominating Sam-Me for sainthood...it's Bonds' candidacy we're talking about.

No one is claimnig that Sosa didn't do steroids.

bonds is gone soon...for those worried about records and accountability...1996-1998 was a long time ago and waiting til 2004+ to do something about it was the fault of EVERYONE involved in the game.

players, owners, unions, discipline czars, etc.

imo, they can deal with the mess they made and everyone knew what this was building to.

we got the future, the immediate past and present is tainted to the point its too late to fix at this point outside of someone getting legitamately busted.

you thing Bonds or etc. is gonna disrespect Aaron? well...baseball disrespected itself to get to that point. bring on the future.

"Sorry to be a TV nerd, but I believe that was Schultz's catch phrase."

Dude nice catch. I posted in haste.

Crunch-

That's a good point...you're right on that one....Bud and his fellow owners dropped the ball there...as did the Player's Association...

I think Bonds is going to hang it up. He wanted to break Ruth's records, not Aaron's. He knows that even if he does break Aaron's record A-Rod is going to break his and then Pujols may break that, so what's the point?

Also, you people talking about his great OPS- is he even slugging .500 yet? He's getting by on rep for the most part. If he had a normal player's strike zone (ie the umpires called balls and strikes instead of letting him do it) he'd be hitting .200

The outrage towards Bonds rather than Sosa is due to a number of factors.

1) Bonds is a notorious a-hole (regardless of Manny's personal feelings)
2) Sosa never broke any records (besides Maris's, which was already broken)
3) Sosa went away abruptly, and is now viewed as kind of a pathetic character
4) Sosa was beloved by nearly everyone while he played, whereas only a few myopic idiots in San Francisco actually cheer for Bonds
5) Bonds has a ton of legal troubles off the field
6) Bonds loves to play the victim, and it turns everyone off

A lot of stats here for Murton; but where are the stats for Hendry, the guy who supposedly is going to trade Murton?

Hendry likes young players (which is one of the reasons I like Hendry). Remember when he had that lunch with Thome, who was interested in playing for the Cubs, and Hendry said, Sorry, we're committed to Choi? The following year, Hendry set aside left field for Dubois.

If he made room for Choi and Dubois, he can find a place for Pie and E. Patterson. If Murton is traded, that will be the first time I can recall Hendry trading a young starter. Choi was no longer a starter. He had been demoted. He was in somewhat the same position as Ronny Cedeno--who will be trade bait.

JH does like Soriano, so things could get a little crowded in the outfield, but I would expect the thirty-somethings to be the ones to go. In any case, my prediction is that though they like Pierre, the Cubs won't act very quickly on him.

"Crunch-

That's a good point...you're right on that one....Bud and his fellow owners dropped the ball there...as did the Player's Association..."

Except, that Bud and his fellow owners did force through testing in the minors, where the MLBPA doesn't reign. It was the Player Association that treated testing like it was a negotiation point, and if not for Balco they would be offering it as a comprimise for a year earlier of hitting arbitraion for the next CBA.

"The following year, Hendry set aside left field for Dubois."

Really? what year was that? I don't think that the 139 AB's he got in 2005 really make it seem like LF was set aside for him, not after Hollandsworthless had a great 50 game stretch in 2004...

holly/dubois was the LF going into the year...there was no one signed to compete.

for all the hate thrown on holly it was convienently swept under the rug that dubois sucked, was hacky, was just a 1-tool (power) player...and some even gave him a free pass cuz of his age.

Doug-
7) He brings his kid to a press conference to deflect the media interrogation.

Phil-
I think you can replace "young" with "cheap" as Hendry's views on players.

I still think he will get Sheffield, on the cheap, as his only fa and thump his chest about that as we watch Sheffield fall apart in left field in 2007.

I hope you're wrong about that jacos. I don't want to wait around another year getting the weekly Mark Prior & Kerry Wood update.

re #53 Doug,

And #5 Sosa never admitted to using performance enhancing drugs

Sorry meant #7

Holly: 268 AB's
17 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 35 RBI 18BB/53K
.254/.301/.388, 2 assists, 1 error

Dubois: 142 AB's
12 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR 22 RBI, 7BB/49K, .239/.289/.472
2 assists, 1 error

While hacktastic to be sure, I'd have taken a chance on Dubois' power instead of Hollandworth's....um....hmmmm...whatever?

"I hope you're wrong about that jacos."

I hope so too, but you have Z, Hill, Marshall, for 2007. Hendry touting Prior ("you know he made 27 starts in 2005") will be #4.

So I guess he "will be in the running" for Zito and Schmidt. Soriano I'm guessing Anaheim and Lee to the Yanks.

a guy with a 1:3 K rate has no business in the bigs.

when cleveland took dub off the hands of the cubs they played him a few times, sent him down, brought him back up in sept. and didnt play him once...not even to pinch hit.

he was worked on by the cleveland coaches trying to fix some holes in his swing. didnt work.

dub actually had a short stint of early success before he got fed a steady diet of breakers he couldnt even foul off.

hell, he didnt even get a sept. callup this year and he's what...28 now?

"a guy with a 1:3 K rate has no business in the bigs."

and before anyone even goes there...dubois is/was no dunn. =p

no plate selection, horrible D, no wheels...

His "D" in LF was bad...heck yes..

I got news...Holly was no Gold Glover out there..but better than Dubois by leaps and bounds.

I'm not saying Dubois would be the starting LF now.....
I said originally that the position wasn't held for him, it was for Hollandsworth, who "earned" it with an uncharacteristically good 57 game stint in 2004.

I'd rather have had Option C: Anyone else but A or B...

Chad,

Bonds has the fourth highest OPS in baseball history (behind Ruth, Williams and Gehrig, in that order). I never claimed he WAS the best, just that the argument could definitely be made.

jacos: I hope so too, but you have Z, Hill, Marshall, for 2007...

Marshall doesn't belong in next year's rotation, but your probably right about him being part of it.

I agree Ryno, I think he needs more seasoning, but he will make close to 25 starts in 2006.

Pencil him in.

Horatio, what was his career OPS BEFORE steroids? That's the point.

Oh, and OPS is the worst stat ever.

I'm curious, Chad - why do you have such disdain for OPS, honestly?

when the difference between someone who's "good" and "bad" is 2-4 homers and/or a few doubles/triples...OPS being some magic # does suck.

especially when you apply magic numbers like ".800" or "120" on the pitch count scene...

ichiro may have 6 200+ hit seasons with a touch of power in all of them, but good luck explaining how only 3 of those were barely good and 3 were just simply bad.

Chad,

Team OPS correlates to runs scored better than any other stat.

Do you understand what the above sentence means?

If Bonds had been a Cub, Chad would scream and type in bold and capital letters that Barry has NOT BEEN PROVEN GUILTY!!!

You have NO EVIDENCE!!!!!!!!!!!!

ZERO!!!

Truly amazing that a debate has sprung up about Holly vs. Dubois. Man, this must be a slow news day. How about Neifi vs. Mabry?

Chad:
"Show me any athlete who at age 37 puts together a season like he did in 2001? You really think thats normal?"

Roger Clemens at age 41:
18-4, 2.98 ERA, 214.1 IP, 1.16 WHIP

shouldnt the list of people who have actually been popped/linked to roids (aside from giambi) be more suprising and telling of the problem?

it seems that the major issues isnt the great ones becoming legendary ones as much as it is the average ones looking to get great...the difference between making a few hundred K and getting 5x that much.

the huge core of players caught are trying to go from suck to average or maintain a level they're slipping at.

then you got dumbasses like ken "i wish i could feel sorry for this guy" camenetti.

CWTP:
"Hmmm, If Matt Murton gives you a signed baseball will you stop unfairly bashing him?"I actually got a ball signed from him at the Cubs Convention this past year. But I am just looking at the facts man.

What the hell is going on with you lately mannytrillo??! No you're not. And it's baffling to me why you're allowed to get away with it. Most of what you've posted the last few weeks has just been baffling at best.

Like this piece of nonsense, "There is NO known HGH test out there."

Right. ... No test for HGH...

I will bet you that ball signed by Murton vs the price you paid for it that there has been an HGH test since the 2004 Olympics.

There is a blood test for HGH.

If the Cubs thought Murton could be counted on to hit 25-30 homers next year, he would have the LF job, no question.

To me, Murton has answered the questions about whether he can play in the majors and play regularly. I also think that he will get better over time. An open question with him is whether he can be a valuable part of a championship caliber team next season or whether the Cubs should upgrade for more offense.

I like the OBP he provides. I think he helps the lineup a lot because he is one of the few guys in the lineup that consistently provides good at bats and works deep into the count. I like that fact that he has shown the ability to adapt at the plate. However, if the Cubs conclude that they need a corner outfielder with 30 home run, 120 rbi potential, I'm not sure Murton is the guy. He may turn into that; I don't think he is there now. It depends on what the rest of the lineup will look like, but if the team will not carry any power bats at SS, 2B and CF, it may well need to count on getting 50-60 homers from both the 1b-3b and the corner outfield combinations in order to have any semblance of a respectable offense. Signing Ray Durham to play second would change the calculus. Getting a bat with more power to replace Pierre in CF would do likewise.

The Cubs are currently last in the National League in runs scored. In order to contend, they need to figure out a way to score at least 100 more runs next year than they will score this year (they will also need to figure out a way to allow probably 100 fewer runs than they have given up). Some of that will come from having Lee back. While I have advocated that they could improve their offense by seeking to improve their team OBP (which is currently also last in the NL), I'm not holding out hope that Hendry will do that. If I had to predict, I think Hendry is likely to try to upgrade over Murton and try to acquire a bigger stick as a corner outfielder. If he can get a Soriano or a Sheffield, that would be one thing, and I couldn't reasonably second guess the move (except possibly on grounds of age in Sheffield's case). If he can't get a bat of that caliber, I'd feel differently.

What the hell is going on with you lately mannytrillo??!

I suspect it's the fact that he's found a new topic that gets everyone rankled and he's exploiting it for everything it's worth.

"Roger Clemens at age 41:
18-4, 2.98 ERA, 214.1 IP, 1.16 WHIP"

Great season. Not recored setting nor his best. Not by a wide margin. But please, keep trying.

Try Randy Johnson circa 2001. Much better example. However Randy Johnson didn't out do his own records by nearly 50%. It would be equivalent of Johnson striking out 500 guys.

Horatio, adding averages is a horrible way to determine anything. Adding averages doesn't mean much at all. The fact that OBP and SLG show a high correlation to runs scored is obvious. You mean to say that if at team has a lot of guys on base and when they do, they hit doubles and homers is a stat? I'd say hardly.

BJS,

No. If Sammy Sosa ADMITTED steroid use to a grand jury, I would not say those things. I believe a lot of the circumstantial evidence about Bonds, however, I use his ADMISSION IN COURT as the smoking gun.

I'm not as doom-and-gloom about the Cubs offense as others around here. Consider the factors that went into this year's piss poor results:

- Pierre was beyond terrible for the first two months of the season.
- Ramirez really didn't find his bat until July.
- Lee missed most of the season with a freak injury.
- Murton had a ridiculously bad June.
- Cedeno proved himself to be Neifi Light.
- Walker pooped out right around the same time Lee got hurt.

If you replace Pierre's horrible start with an average performance, have Ramirez catch his stride a few weeks earlier, have Murton play consistently the whole season (even at a level slightly below his recent performance), and have Lee for a full year, you're already looking at a dramatically improved offense.

Lets do a little comparision for Murton. Lets compare him to a young OFer who hits the 30 HR's, Nick Swisher of the Oakland A's.

Despite hitting .254 Swisher maintains a .371 OBP and has a .856 OPS. That is fairly good.

Murton is hitting .295 with a .360 OBP and a .798 OPS.

So by that comparision Swisher is better, correct? I am sure those wishing for a replacement for Murton would much rather have the guy who can hit the ton of HR's because they are supposed to provide better production than Murton.

I personally think the most important stat of a big leaguer, especially a guy counted on to knock in runs is BA with RISP and RISP/2 outs. So lets compare...

Swisher RISP - .179 BA, .320 OBP, 5 HR, 50 RBI
Murton RISP - .311 BA, .400 OBO, 2 HR, 45 RBI

Murton is clearly better in these situations and produces the same amount as Swisher. The obvious counter arguement is, "Well if Swisher is doing that while hitting .179 imagine what he can do when he figures things out." I guess the same can be said about Murton and his power. But we don't see Oakland in any panic to replace Swisher because he isn't a complete player now.

If your just looking at HR's and OPS from your future LFer then you should be happy with Preston Wilson or someone next year. They can out homer Murton. Wilson is hitting .218 with the Cards but has a .748 OPS. All he has to do is hit .250 and he is better than Murton right?

I think looking at the whole picture of Murton at this point is the way to go. The only hole in his hitting is the power. Swisher has the power, but he isnt a polished hitter. I guess it depends on your preference. Either way they are both getting the job done but in completly different manners. I just like the guys who can hit with RISP. Alot of players can't hit with RISP. Murton can. And our team has a TON of players who can't.

Wait a minute.....then why do I still want Pierre back? Damn, I am weird. *shrug*

"I personally think the most important stat of a big leaguer, especially a guy counted on to knock in runs is BA with RISP and RISP/2 outs"

Come on Hendry. If you are going to post something that stupid, at least use your own handle

MikeC,

BA with RISP and RISP/2 outs is a 'clutch' stat. And clutch does not exist here at TCR.

an experiment we've all seen unfold upon all our eyes can point to the problem of looking at a guy just based on stats.

murton's adjustments of hitting while maintaining his field of vision that gives him his plate selection is more important than any number you can dig up on murton as far as how it pertains to his future.

we've seen 3-4 different "flavors" of murton this year while he adjusts to the pitchers/scouts adjusting to him. through all of this he's maintained his good eye while he ballances that and actually improving the quality of his contact.

good stuff even if he doesnt become a 40HR guy, imo.

Here's a nice article/discussion over at Gonfalon Cubs about clutch hitting and BA with RISP

Don't bother Chad, you won't understand it anyway.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/gon...

J. Pierre cf
R. Theriot 2b
A. Ramirez 3b
J. Jones rf
A. Pagan lf
H. Blanco c
S. Moore 1b
R. Cedeno ss

And right on cue with all the discussion regarding Murton... he rides the pine.

BRILLIANT!

CWTP:
"I will bet you that ball signed by Murton vs the price you paid for it that there has been an HGH test since the 2004 Olympics."

I got it for free as I saw him walking around the hotel.

There is no urine test for HGH, and that is what applies to MLB, like we were talking about, as the MLB Players Assosiation won't let their players give blood tests. So while ther might be a HGH test, I should of been more careful with my wording and say there is no reliable urine test for HGH. Is that better? And thanks for not elttting me "get away" with that.

CWTP:
"Most of what you've posted the last few weeks has just been baffling at best."

I am sorry if you don't like me using his entire year stats instead of just cherry picking certain months stats. Should we throw out the first 2 months of ARAM's and Pierre season too?

Dying Old Cub Fan:
"However, if the Cubs conclude that they need a corner outfielder with 30 home run, 120 rbi potential, I'm not sure Murton is the guy. He may turn into that; I don't think he is there now. It depends on what the rest of the lineup will look like, but if the team will not carry any power bats at SS, 2B and CF, it may well need to count on getting 50-60 homers from both the 1b-3b and the corner outfield combinations in order to have any semblance of a respectable offense."

Good post, and right in line with my thinking on Murton in LF.

Vorare:
"I suspect it's the fact that he's found a new topic that gets everyone rankled and he's exploiting it for everything it's worth."

Its funny that what I am saying about Murton is said by many others. And in no way am I even bashing Murton at all, he has had a pretty darn good year. Just saying that LF is the easiest way to upgrade the offense and it might make Murton expendable (or I'd prefer to platoon him with JJ), because when compared to other NL LF's THIS YEAR, he has not done too well.

"Vorare:
"I suspect it's the fact that he's found a new topic that gets everyone rankled and he's exploiting it for everything it's worth.""

Yup, that's just Manny being Manny.

(just a joke here)

Chad:
"Great season. Not recored setting nor his best. Not by a wide margin. But please, keep trying."

But Clemens dominated the NL at the age of 41, 4 years older than Bonds. No, it wasn't record setting, but he won the Cy Young and dominated. And teh exmaple you gave of Rabdy Johnson too. So it is possible for 37 or even 41 year olds to be GREAT. Yes, Bonds had an alltime type year, but you uised age as one of teh big parts of your argument and we just showed others older than him that perform at a ALL-Time Great level.

MIKEC:
"If your just looking at HR's and OPS from your future LFer then you should be happy with Preston Wilson or someone next year."

I would not be happy with Preston Wilson next year as Wilson has a worse OPS than Murton this year. In fact, Murton has a better AVG, OBP and SLG than Wilson.

But it depends on what Hendry does to CF and 2B (assuming Izturis is at SS and JJ is in RF full time), as to see if we need to upgrade LF. If we upgrade in both the positions, I can easily live with Murton out in LF.

DCF,

It's pretty pathetic, but 100 more runs scored and 100 less runs allowed would only be good for about 72-78 wins. The Cubs need drastic work. Even a 200 run swing would not fix this team.

I meant 75-78

Manny, I never said that older guys can't still play great. But 1. Its easier for a pitcher as he doesn't have to play everyday and 2. I said that it's impossible for a 37 year old to have the best year of his already hall of fame carrer all the while destroying his previous single season home run total by over 50%.

It be like Jordan averaging 54 in his last season as a Bull.

Chad,

I'm going to say this really slow so you'll understand.

Team...OPS...predicts...runs...scored...better... than...any...other...stat.

The above is a mathematical fact. It has been true for all of baseball history and it continues to be true into baseball future. I do not care whether you think that adding averages (even though they're not averages) is too crude to be useful. The fact is that OPS IS useful, and accurate, and a hundred other things but one thing it is not is misleading. OPS is absolutely (save a few of the huge meta-stats) the best way to predict the run scoring/producing potential of a team/individual. It's real simple. Get guys who have high OPS and your team will score lots of runs. Everything else is about as important as the uniform color.

You arguing on this is kind of like you arguing that the odds on a coin flip are not 50-50. These are unalterable truths that you are attempting to besmirch with your ignorance. And Mr. OPS called and he told me he's had enough.

Sorry,

Not sure what I'm smoking here...

100 more runs scored would give the Cubs 744 runs scored.

100 fewer runs allowed would give the Cubs 673 runs allowed

The 71 run differential would be comparable to this year's LA Dodgers. Not great, but good enough to maybe make the playoffs. We'd still need some work, though.

But it depends on what Hendry does to CF and 2B (assuming Izturis is at SS and JJ is in RF full time), as to see if we need to upgrade LF. If we upgrade in both the positions, I can easily live with Murton out in LF.

I agree with the basic premise, but the larger picture here is that dumping Murton because we need more production out of LF is effectively letting crappy contract situations dictate what the Cubs do. Like an NFL team not drafting Leinart because they already took a QB last year. Why let past mistakes compound into the future? The truth is that we need to rid ourselves of dead weight like Izturis and Cedeno and Pierre, not dump the reasonably effective Murton because he's not a top 5 LF. Plus, he's shown ability and he's only 24. He figures to get a lot better. I don't think he's a world beater, but getting rid of him because we're already tolerating Izturis and Pierre is misguided. Our aim should be to replace those who suck, not replace the average with great to make up for the suck. Sorry if that last sentence made no sense.

Horratio:
"I agree with the basic premise, but the larger picture here is that dumping Murton because we need more production out of LF is effectively letting crappy contract situations dictate what the Cubs do."

Who said anything about "dumping Murton"?? I would like to see him as a platoon aprtner with JJ or part of a big trade to land big bat/stud pitcher.

"Like an NFL team not drafting Leinart because they already took a QB last year. Why let past mistakes compound into the future?"

So if a team drafted Ben Rothleisberger in 2005, they should draft Leinart in 2006, just becasue he was availible? No way, that is stupid. You maybe trade that pick or you just draft for need. What is having a young stud QB sitting on your bench for 3 years do you while you already have a stud QB who isn't going to lose his job?

"but getting rid of him because we're already tolerating Izturis and Pierre is misguided. Our aim should be to replace those who suck, not replace the average with great to make up for the suck."

Well, I hope Hendry gets that message, but since he traded FOR Izturis and I personally think he will offer a long term deal to Pierre, I don't think he did.

Team...OPS...predicts...runs...scored...better... than...any...other...stat.

NO IT DOESNT!

OPS is not a predictive stat MORON! It only tell you what has happened!!! Not what will happen!!! No stat can tell you what will happen. Can I say that slower?

OPS means runs scored per game. Think it has something to do with getting guys on base and slugging them in. Not sure on that, though.

BTW, Chad, I think what Horatio is saying is to get a team with good offense you want to find guys with good career OPS. Not sure why he didn't just say that, but there you go.

Chad,

Nothing predicts exactly, but that happens to be why we have stats: to predict future success. When you give a player a fat contract, you are not rewarding him for what he's done in the past, you are essentially betting that the player will continue to produce IN THE FUTURE. The only tools we have that allow GMs to decide who to bet on are the stats. Actually, the best predictive tools are the forecasting systems like PECOTA, but for the casual observer, figuring that a young guy with a high OPS (cough...Soriano...cough) might do it again is a relatively safe bet.

"The only tools we have that allow GMs to decide who to bet on are the stats."

there's about 200+ scouts scratching their heads at that one...and a lot more retired ones removing their oxygen masks to muster a weak laugh.

how you get the stat is more important than the stat itself unless youre looking a starting point.

#118...Crunch.

I quietly read TCR and then explode with venom just once in awhile.

Not this time.

#118 is the most salient post, and point, you've ever written. Stats are, or can be, deceiving...Whaaaaa heyyyyy???? NOOOOO!!!!...but they ARE in fact tools.

Like my crosscut mitre saw at home....great tool for someone who knows how to use it...for the rest, we keep cutting shit the wrong way.

You're RIGGHHT on Captain.

As well, your crack at the oldtimers and their oxygen masks....brilliant.

You are now my new man love interest on TCR. Sorry Chad, you never responded.

Joey

It is interesting to compare Bonds and Lance Armstrong.

Armstrong is a huge jerk too who has actually had many people say they saw him cheat (including several teammates and team personnel). A lab even illegally released an Armstrong blood sample that showed EPO in Armstrong's blood (at a time where EPO was not tested for). Many teammates have said they cheated (although most cyclists are afraid of Lance's aggressive and huge legal team). "Cheating", technically, is very common in cycling and while Armstrong was likely "more clean" than his competitors he undoubtedly numerous times broke cycling's strict "no nothing" policy.

There is a lot of circumstantial evidence around both Bonds and Armstrong. The press treats one with reverence and one with indifference. The fans LOVE Armstrong and most HATE Bonds.

Ryno:
"OPS means runs scored per game."

I always thought OPS means On-base Plus Slugging. Oh well...

I like the new DKAsdjkjkfugSDFHH stat it means the average per 9 innings someone eats a donut, and surprisngly a player is not leading, but our fearless GM is.

Horatio:
"Nothing predicts exactly, but that happens to be why we have stats: to predict future success."

Good job contradicting yourself in 16 words. First you say nothing predicts exactly, then you say stats predict future success. Well which is it?

Anyway, stats help give you an idea of what to possibly expect, kind of an educated guess. But take a look at Gary Matthews Jr. this year. How could of stats predicted that?

"Armstrong is a huge jerk too..."
---

That was one of the points I was trying to make above. A number of superstars in Pro Sports are labeled as 'jerks'.

Inspite of all the allegations, all the negative opinions, people still go in large numbers to see Lance Armstrong speak. People still draw motivation and inspiration from him.

Someone above pointed out that most of the players are taking or have taken Performance Enhancers at one point or the other. Some people get benefitted from these enhancers as it boosts their ALREADY SUPERIOR talent levels (that might be dwindling because of age etc) and some players gain nothing beacuse they are junk.

Chad et al, capitalized their comments and shouted at the top of their lungs but they didn't seem to get the point I am trying to make - Steroids or not it would be unfair if we turn a blind eye towards the greatness of Barry Bonds.

-Cubby 78..

Wow, you guys are geniuses. Once again you have shown that teams with good hitters score runs. STOP THE PRESSES!!!!!!

What you don't understand is that OPS is not some secret little code that you need Tom Hanks to decipher. All is shows you is that teams that hit the ball well will score runs. Teams that hit the ball well and do it for more than one base at a time will score even more. Wow. You guys should be GMs.

Cubby:

I think you're missing the point Chad and others were making. The fact that Bonds was a great player and a certain first ballot hall of famer without the steroids just makes his violation even more disgusting.

Bonds pissed all over the game and decades of tradition because he wasn't satisfied with "just" being considered one of the greatest ballplayers of all time. He wanted to be the best, and to have his name written all over the record books. That's not admirable and it takes away a lot of what he did accomplish legitimately.

"Teams that hit the ball well and do it for more than one base at a time will score even more"

Chad,
I think you both are saying the same thing. So from your above deduction, the probability that a team will score a lot of runs when it is filled with players having bigger OPS is very high. I think this is exactly what the OPS proponents are saying.

-Cubby 78...

Why is it so hard for some people to accept that stats are a good predictor of future success. They are! Ryan Howard should hit for a lot of power next year. Why do I think this? A quick look at his age and this year's numbers lead me to believe that a 40 HR season isn't exactly a stretch for this young superstar. And when I say nothing predicts exactly, how is that in any way a contradiction? The entire field of statistics relies on the concept of likelihood, not surety. There are no guarantees, just things that are WAY more likely than other things. Why is this so hard to understand?

Chad,

But how do you know if a hitter is any good? That's why I say to use OPS. Because it's the best way of determining how productive someone is. I don't think OPS is a secret code. It's actually incredibly easy to calculate. Which is why it is even more shocking when persons like yourself choose to overlook it while evaluating players.

"He wanted to be the best, and to have his name written all over the record books."
-
I am probably branching out from the original discussion but...

How can you be so sure of the above? Bonds MIGHT have juiced up to just keep up with the flow. How can you be so sure that if he did take steroids knowingly then he did for creating records ALONE? It is always possible that and more probable that the game was already "pissed" on and stinking before bonds emptied his two ounces on it?

As someone above said MLB has failed to have a strong anti-drugs policy for a long time and probably a lot of superstars have escaped the wrath. So if anyone deserves to get booed it is the MLB first. Again it is also safe to conclude from the above that if MLB didn't test properly then there is a high probability that a lot of Bonds's peers MIGHT have also got juiced up. So the net effect of Bond's on steroids is ZERO. If you want to have any contempt for Bonds then you can show it publicly but it is not fair enough unless you erase the past 20+ years of baseball altogether(during which there was no proper testing for steroids..)

-Cubby 78...

horatio..the problem is when people see a direct link between a cause/effect but have no idea just how it works.

a .800 team OPS is the combined effort of many people with high slugging and high ob%.

the sad thing about your OPS love is OB%, wich is a substat of your favorite stat, shows almost the same results for offensive production/ranking.

if you put stats in a vaccum you never see how good jones is vs. righties, you never see whether a guy runs like he's got bricks on his feet or he's jacked on crack, and you definately dont take in account the skills that make the numbers.

for reference...take jones this season...pretend its a vacuum and he can replicate it every year. let's also pretend you can sign 8 of him cuz well, why not, we're putting guys in a vacuum anyway.

build a full team of him...lose every game a lefty starts with almost no fight.

meh...whatever.

Cubby:

I think you're missing the point Chad and others were making. "The fact that Bonds was a great player and a certain first ballot hall of famer without the steroids just makes his violation even more disgusting.

Bonds pissed all over the game and decades of tradition because he wasn't satisfied with "just" being considered one of the greatest ballplayers of all time. He wanted to be the best, and to have his name written all over the record books. That's not admirable and it takes away a lot of what he did accomplish legitimately."

WORD

"How can you be so sure that if he did take steroids knowingly then he did for creating records ALONE?"

We can never really know the truth about why. But the fact that Bonds was quoted as saying that he wanted to erase Babe Ruth from the record book is a great indicator. Without steroids, that would never happen.

mannytrillo: I always thought OPS means On-base Plus Slugging. Oh well...

Jesus christ manny, I mean OPS results in more runs scored per games. Prick.

Ryno:
"Prick."

Thanks man....

"But the fact that Bonds was quoted as saying that he wanted to erase Babe Ruth from the record book is a great indicator."

Classic example of "Circumstantial Evidence".

Most people in Silicon Valley want to surpass Bill Gates one day. Whether they will achieve their lofty goals or not is a totally different question and more often their lofty goals don't have much weight in other people's minds. It all changes if one day they somehow achieve their lofty goals and everything they said or did comes under scrutiny.

As I explained in my previous quote there is an equal probability if not higher that Bonds MIGHT have knowingly juiced up to keep with the flow.

-Cubby 78...

Please look at the phrase "great indicator".

See, I put that in the sentence to show that there is no hard evidence. I said that to show that we can glean some insight by looking at what he said. I clearly stated that we will never know the truth of why he took steroids (and he did - proven fact, not rumor).

Now your whole thing about Bill Gates makes no sense. If there was someone who was in computer programming who was accused of stealing programs or other intellectual properties all the while putting his program on every computer in the world, thereby out doing Gates and Windows after talking about his goal of outdoing Gates. Well then we have a parallel.

Bonds testified that he had received and used clear and cream substances from his personal strength trainer, Greg Anderson, during the 2003 baseball season but was told they were the nutritional supplement flaxseed oil and a rubbing balm for arthritis, according to a transcript of his testimony reviewed by The Chronicle.

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