Another Rumor Roundup

I really didn't intend to do one of these again today as there isn't much news and I was working on something else, but the comments have gotten out of control on the last post so I'm going to shut those down and hope cooler heads will prevail. Bruce Miles of The Daily Herald answered some message board fodder over at Northside Baseball. A lot of interesting stuff he touches on. A few of the hot topics: - He says the Score report yesterday doesn't jive with his sources and his people tell him it will likely go down to Nov 11th. Stresses the whole two sides to the negotiation and that Kinzer and Co. are going to milk this for everything it's worth. - Kinzer is part of Adam Katz's agency and last time they signed Aramis, Katz swooped in the last minute with a lot of changes and sweeteners. - Cubs are warming up to OBP as Miles stated that Pierre's low OBP got the Cubs' attention. - Out clause was a Macphail creation at the last minute - Hendry probably trusted Ramirez and agent's stated desire to stay a little too much. - Rumor has that Soriano wants a full no-trade clause and the Phils are quite reluctant to offer that, preferring a limited no-trade clause. - Lee Elia resigned from the O's citing a desire to spend time with his family. He may take a scouting gig or something but doesn't want a job requiring lots of travel. - Cleveland and San Francisco are being talked about as destinations for Gary Sheffield. - Angles are making a run at Gary Matthews Jr., the White Sox and Cubs are rumored as well. - And in a sad note, Joe Randa has retired. Let's remain calm everyone, it's just baseball.
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Comments

Just as an FYI...

All 6 Cubs who could file for Free Agency have now. That includes: Blanco, Mabry, Miller, Pierre, Ramirez and Wood.

Out of those Mabry and Wood can take a flying leap.

That is sort of sad for me. I used to work with Randa's fiance.

And the Trib is reporting that Dusty will get an interview with the Padres on Monday.

of course Wood's probably coming back.

Sorry dude.

4, maybe 5 of them will be back, for good or bad.

I wonder if Alderson will be doing a crossword puzzle or building a house of cards while he gives the token interview to Dusty.

yeah should have mentioned that Andrew.

Color me doubtful that he'll end up with it, doesn't go with Alderson's managers are our muppets philosophy. But hey, you never know. Hopefully for Padres fans they don't have any injuries and Dusty can avoid having to make any tough decisions all season.

It's a nice low key media outlet that he'd certainly enjoy. I still think they end up with Hillman or Black.

Some one should let Dusty know the Padres declined options on Piazza and Klesko.

AL Gold Glove winners are in...number beside the name indicates past wins.

1B Mark Teixeira Texas Rangers 2
2B Mark Grudzielanek Kansas City Royals 1
3B Eric Chavez Oakland Athletics 6
SS Derek Jeter NY Yankees 3
OF Torii Hunter Minnesota Twins 6
OF Ichiro Suzuki Seattle Mariners 6
OF Vernon Wells Toronto Blue Jays 3
C Ivan Rodriguez Detroit Tigers 12
P Kenny Rogers 5

Alderson: What are your thoughts on lineup construction?

Dusty: You gotta go with speed at the top. A pesky guy will ignite the offe... drone... drone... drone...

(staring out the window and picking his nose)Alderson: ...uh-huh

***quiet silence for 2 minutes - while staring out the window and wondering if his wife picked up the dry cleaning, Alderson remembers he's doing an interview***

Alderson: Aha! I see. Now how do you feel is the most productive way to construct a bench.

Dusty: Well, I'd probably use dark Oak and reinforce it with triangular fixtures under the seat. Those are the most sturdy geometric shape, ya know.

Alderson: I was thinking about your bench of backup players if you're managing the Padres.

Dusty: No sweat. You need a couple of guys who can play a bunch of positions. They need to be able to make contact in any situation... extra speed.... lay down a bunt with 2 outs in the 9th...

Alderson: zzzzzzzz ........ zzzzzzzzzzzz

Is Towers dressed up in his slave outfit chained to Alderson's desk during this interview? Or did they just tell him the wrong place and time for the interview?

anyway, hahaha

Don't quit your day job, BJS.

Gammo has TEX with serious interest in Hillman if they don't go with Don Wakamatsu. He noted that both TEX and SD were "very impressed" with Hillman but Peter thought Hillman would be a better fit with OAK. WASH seems to have no clue on which direction they will go.

Ramirez: .250 career in April, .271 in May.

Not what you really want, but not the disaster he's made out to be. Check out '04, for example. Let's not make too much out of his slow start last year, please.

by defensive Win Shares:

C Irod
1B Overbay/Swisher/Sexson
2B Mark Ellis (Grudz way down on that list)
SS Peralta (Jeter way down)
3B Crede
OF Granderson, Wells, Hunter

anyone know how to sort by position on BP.com for their defensive Rate2 stat? Or do you have to look at each individual player?

Any other good defensive metrics readily available to the public?

A's like Hillman too apparently.

thanks for the advice, Tito.
I hope I can get to sleep tonight knowing you weren't impressed with one of my posts on the internet.

I'm not sure if Aramis is traditionally a slow starter, but I believe Sandberg was a career .230 hitter in April. Before 2005 D.Lee was a terrible hitter in April as well...same for Pierre but I don't think that's going to matter anymore.

Burrell could be available. He doesn't get much mention around here, but the Phillies have talked of trading him before. I have no idea what they'd expect. Probably a young MLB ready pitcher and another lesser part.

Doug;

Sandberg hustled
Derrek Lee hits when it counts
Pierre, sadly, won't be leading off for the cubs anymore

And none of them made 16 million. He's not worth it. This is more than what starting pitching is demanding. Why are we even having this discussion? Pitching is harder to find than power

probably anything if someone would take his salary...

he's got 2 years left for $27 mil and a full no-trade clause.

His OBP numbers are great, but when you consider the park he's played in the last few years, he should have higher HR totals. His defense is pretty bad too I believe, could be wrong about that.

Phils will have to eat a lot of salary if hey want to move him for anything decent.

Ellis should've won but he missed over 40 games... not that precedence hasn't been set with Palmeiro and Torii Hunter winning previously with under 100 games played...his subpar year with the bat never helps either.

I wouldn't put much stock in any current defensive stat breakdowns like BP's win shares...it's helpful but not completely accurate (chances + range is always going to be skewed). ProTrade is supposedly working on some "revolutionary" new defense and base running rating/ranking system. Unless you know a highly regarded scout who has seen everyone live more than a handful of times there's nothing accurate out there.

"Burrell could be available."

If it was Rollins, I might bite.

Burrell has a no trade and last season noted that he'd only accept a trade to NYY or BOS.

I guess you must have read the Greg Couch article Doug15

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/couch/118987,C...

I suggest you read the retort.

http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/2006/11/let...

>>>Sandberg hustled

so, that made the slow starts more palatable? please advise.

Phillies fans seem to think that Burrell is unclutch or whatever. They give him the Jacque treatment so he's obviously not well-liked.

2006

RISP: .222 AVG .375 OBP .346 SLG .722 OPS

RISP 2 out: .167 AVG .363 OBP .256 SLG .619 OPS

here's the same from 2005

RISP: .313 AVG .429 OBP .598 SLG 1.026 OPS

RISP 2 out: .295 AVG .426 OBP .693 SLG 1.119 OPS

So, is he clutch or isn't he? Can we get an official ruling?

BP doesn't publish win shares, I got them from hardball times.

BP has their own called Rate2.

The Fielding Bible and Ultimate Zone Rating are supposed to be quite good, but they're not readily available.

I would personally never go out and claim this player is the absolute best over this player based on any defensive metric, but coupled with some scouting reports, I'd have a good idea about the player.

Out of our 6 free agents, I'm sure Jim Hendry is busy trying to figure out how he is going to get outbid for JP, sign our two injured pitchers, and over pay for our 3B.

Love Jim Hendry

Rate2 is what I was referring to.

I can only hope we get outbid for Pierre. I think Hendry's praying someone does.

somehow I see Hendry getting outbid for Matthews Jr first and then overpaying for Pierre.

Hopefully all of the payroll gets spent on good players so there's not enough left to pay Pierre.
Get Lofton for 1 year. Pie will be ready soon. They'll probably both out-produce Pierre next year anyway.

"And none of them made 16 million"

For a short while, Ryne Sandberg had the biggest contract in baseball. I believe it was for 7 mil/year. You cannot point to a number without some reference.

And as far as hustle? Did running out grounders do much for the team? NO! Why are you so caught up on ARams alleged 'lazy' attitude.

And memo to any who calls ARam lazy, prove to me that it negatively affect the team and I will agree with you. Short of that SHUT UP ALREADY!!!!!!!!

BOGEY: Ha! You got that right, man!

hope we're massively outbid for both, please oh please.

Give Soriano what he wants and his no-trade clause and for that you must play CF.

Teams have until Wed 5pm to bid on Matsuzaka btw. 4 days after that they will know. Rotoworld says Yanks, RSox, Mets, Cubs and O's are the strong suitors.

read the link in the post from Northside baseball if you want to hear from Miles why Ramirez's is getting a bad wrap. I mentioned it in the previous comments as well.

I do love that lazy=hustle. Seems like two different things to me.

CRUNCH: I'm still lookin' for that "Tobacco Road" report from you on Duke, Tar Heels, and NC State.

Will we have to watch another Coach K Final Four appearance?

Duke will have another one that got away from Illinois - Sheyer...

He could be another great shooter down there.

Eli18, it's quite simple. Just ask yourself, If I have to have an infielder start slow at the plate, would I rather have one that:
a. plays great defense (ryno 120 career errors), runs hard after every at bat, and runs hard and smart when on the bases
or
b. take balls of the top of his head (already 142 career errors), walks to first on fly balls, and falls asleep on the bases.

It's pretty simple. I think you can get it.

I'd prefer Dave Roberts in that scenario but it looks like COL will be making a multi-year run at him. Truthfully, I don't think Pierre wants to come back with what transpired with the fans/racial comments towards his boy Jacque and the day baseball doesn't seem to agree with him either.

yeah, what will we ever do without Pierre's slow April and May? But he hustled to first everytime he grounded out to 2nd or bunted to the mound. Good times.

I wouldn't be horribly upset if Pierre came back, but we can do so much better.

heh...i know very little about college basketball/football.

coach K is taking a lotta flack cuz his teams are now leaving early for the NBA rather than finishing their college careers. this used to be a point of pride for duke.

i think the area is still in football fever...UNC just fired their coach and everyone is having a pissfest about that cuz the athletic director isnt being fired and the money being sucked up in the whole thing, etc.

NCSU is all about georgia tech (homecoming) this week.

i talked to andrew brackman a while the past few weeks, that's the only basketball talk ive even heard lately.

"For a short while, Ryne Sandberg had the biggest contract in baseball."

Yeah you're right Chad but it was only for like 5 minutes because either Puckett or Ripken topped him right afterwards...I know Ripken was the first $8m player.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-cubs...

"The Cubs are my first choice but I'm a free agent because I had to give myself the opportunity," Ramirez said during an interview with The Associated Press.

blah, blah, blah, give me more than $11 million, doesn't care what league.

>>>It's pretty simple. I think you can get it.

actually, Doug15, what i get is that people who dole out style points for groundouts and popouts, evidently cannot realize that ARam is an elite MLB infielder on the ascendancy...one who should be locked up for the rest of his career's prime.

CHAD "And memo to any who calls ARam lazy, prove to me that it negatively affect the team and I will agree with you. Short of that SHUT UP ALREADY!!!!!!!!"

Chad, have you ever played a sport. Everyone knows hustle and hard work are contagious. If you ask any MLB player who has played with the likes of Derek Jeter, David Eckstein, etc., they will tell you these players hustle and hard work helps them play better and overcome the grind of the MLB season. Why do you think people loved Pete Rose? He put it out there on every play

A player making 16 million a year needs to be a leader in the club house and more importantly on the field. Do you not think our young players are looking at ARAM for leadership? Next thing you know Murton and Cedeno are going to be walking out of the batter's box. It is naive to think that lack of hustle out of one of "your best players" does not affect those around him!

wonder what the aram holdup is...years or $$.

13-14m...4-6 years...*shrug*

i hope theyre just arguing about structure and contract breakdown at this point, not what they want.

katz has a good relationship with the cubs, but he's also used to playing "bullshit" with him and is NOT afraid to play any leverage out in the press (he was sosa's agent...mota's agent...polanco's agent...etc). dude is definitely not afraid to go to a writer when things arent going his way.

last thing i wanna hear the next week, if its not in the bag by then, is a pissing match or war of words involving reporters with good sources.

Rsox and Indians have really suffered with Manny's lack of hustle in the lineup. The guys has never been on a team with a losing record. (if you count his full seasons).

miles said the numbers he talked about a few days ago are close. 6/15 per year range.

i kinda want the whole money thing figured out or restated.

there was talk when pinella was signed the payroll was due for an increase. lately, a few weeks ago i think, there was talk of the "around 100m" payroll...which is not the 110+ being alluded to.

yeah, it dont mean a thing to us, but if there's player daydreaming going on its nice to know the limitations going into the speculation.

wish we all knew...

when Piniella was hired, the beat writers said they were hearing $115 million

then I think I read something from either Hendry or McDonough that $100ish is very reasonable.

If Trib plans to sell the Cubs, I don't see them taking a lot of long-term debt on. On the other hand, if they plan to keep the Cubs maybe there going to pour some money into it and make it one of their core assets.

mannytrillo!

Thanks for the reply concerning mutual option clauses in the last thread just before it was closed down.

"veryone knows hustle and hard work are contagious."

And losing is like a disease, ....

If value was put on hustle Neifi Perez would be making Arod money.

And it doesn't hurt Jeter and Eckstein to have three of the best hitters in baseball on their teams also.

Lose Aram, this team is really fcked.

I don't recall, but was that option in Rowand's deal a Gillick creation or a Kenny Williams creation before he was traded?

Doesn't hurt Jeter that he's one of the best hitting shorstops in the league or that he plays for a traveling All-Star team.

rotowire says Angels, Orioles and Giants have backed out of Matsuzaka sweepstakes. Rangers and Padres are 2 teams interested as well.

Got to see five Cubs play today, so here's a quick AFL report (talkin' 'bout YOUR Mesa Solar Sox):

Eric Patterson, 2B (hitting lead-off):
1st AB: Ball one, ball two, ball three, strike one called, strike two called, then K-swinging (vs LHP)
2nd AB: BB (vs LHP), then SB (2nd base) - no throw by catcher
3rd AB: squeeze bunt single down the 3rd base line - RBI
4th AB: BB
E-Pat now has 8 BB & 7 K in 65 PA, with 7 SB & 2 CS
DEFENSE: Three or four chances, all made without any errors. However, in the top of the 8th, with Rapada pitching, bloop down LF line, throw from LF had batter-runner dead by two steps at 2B but E-Pat somehow missed him with the tag (no error charged).

Scott Moore, 3B (batting clean-up):
1st AB (vs LHP): ground rule double bounced off rock-hard LF warning track (league leading 7th double); got thrown out trying to steal 3rd with one out (1st CS, has 4 SB so far)
2nd AB: towering rainbow fly out to center
3rd AB: slow roller ground out
4th AB: K-swinging (looked terrible)
DEFENSE: Made outstanding pick on hot shot one-hopper, turned 360, and threw ball away.
Made another outstanding stop on ball hit down 3rd base line, no play on batter but prevented RBI double.

Jake Fox, C (hit 5th in the order):
1st AB: pop fly to OF
2nd AB: infield pop up
3rd AB: broken bat opposite-field ground out to 1B
4th AB: line single rope to LF
DEFENSE: clean

Lincoln Holdzkom:
Entered game in top of 7th inning with two outs and bases loaded, first pitch... bam!... grand slam by Yunel Escobar. (1st HR allowed in 13 IP). Then K-called on 3-2 pitch to end inning.
8th inning: Fly out to CF (nice over-the-shoulder catch by Martinez), walk on four pitches, K-swinging, ground out to 2B.
(Holdzkom is now 3rd in AFL in strikeouts)

Clay Rapada:
Easy inning with a K-swinging, only blemish a bloop down 3rd base line, runner should have been out at 2B but E-Pat somehow missed the tag. No runs.

Carmen Pignatiello is still out of action with a cut hand (off-the-field accident)

SUMMARY:
Eric Patterson is an outstanding offensive player, and unlike his brother, a true lead-off-hitter. He is VERY close to being MLB ready in terms of his offense (strike-zone discipline, deep-count patience, hitting, bunting, base-running, and base-stealing).

Scott Moore is going to be a very good middle-of-the-order sluggin' run producer, and he can steal bases too, too. If A-Ram is re-signed, the Cubs need to move Moore back to SS at AAA and see if he can handle the position. And if A-Ram leaves, Moore could be ready to play 3B in the big leagues right away, at least in a platoon situation.

Lincoln Holdzkom is still not as consistent as he needs to be, but he's real close to being ready to pitch in the majors, just a little bit behind Aardsma and Wuertz.

Clay Rapada is one side-armin' LOOGY who is ready for the big leagues right now.

"A player making 16 million a year needs to be a leader in the club house and more importantly on the field."

Rob beat me to the punch but my answer was going to be MANNY FUCKING RAMIREZ.

I still wish you would all would give up on this already. Hendry knows how Aramis affects the clubhouse. So, if it doesn't bother the team, then why the HELL does it bother YOU!?!?!?!?!

Bogey Post 45:

My point being is that the complaint was that Aramis would be getting 16 million to not hit in april and may. My point was that:

A. 16 mil doesn't even come close to the highest paid player in the league
B. Sandberg was the highest paid player and he didn't hit in April either.

So, the original point was worthless.

let's tone down the profanity and CAPS....thanks.

honest question here...

has anyone ever done a study to see how hitters do in april/may in cold weather cities? Long-term effects, compared to other months, players in warm weather cities.

I'm not looking for one year comparisions either, something broader.

just curious.....

manny frickin ramirez

if aram can actually get 16...damn.

not like i'd be suprised to see him get 13/14+, though.

if he leaves that opens up 10.5+m...if he stays he's gonna stick a loooong time and cost a good amount.

I still think Ramirez goes for 15 mil a year, just a matter of whether someone is willing to guarantee that 6th year rather than some sort of vesting or club option with a big buyout.

i wouldnt be suprised to see 13-16m at all

i just think if he nails down the 16m rather than the 14-ish he'd probally get in a more 3rd FA-friendly period...well, he's coming out damn well in the whole thing.

I'm guessing Aramis frickin' Ramirez is probably gonna have a couple of MVP caliber seasons. He's the kind of signing that's a no brainer... a great hitter entering his prime years. I'd like both, but if the choice is between him and Soriano, I take Aramis.

If the payroll is indeed 110-115 then sign both and get Schmidt too.

D-Lee - $13
Aramis - $15
Big Z - $14
Sori -- $15

$57 million on impact players.
That's reasonable and leaves you with around $50mil. or so to fill in around them over the next 4-5 years. No million-dollar replacement players allowed.

Bogey:
"AL Gold Glove winners are in...number beside the name indicates past wins. 2B Mark Grudzielanek Kansas City Royals 1"

Go Grudz!!! I still wish we had ya.

"If the payroll is indeed 110-115 then sign both and get Schmidt too."

I said this weeks ago and I was mocked.

First of all, a very solid update on the AFL by Phil. Thank you sir. I have to admit, however, that I'm very skeptical about Scott Moore moving back to short. My reasoning is that he already looks a little thick and as you know, these major league sluggers like to add even more weight once they've reached the majors. In my opinion, he'll be too thick to play shortstop.

As for Ramirez, another reason to give him as much or more than Derek Lee: 3b that hit 35 hrs with a 100 rbi's are harder to find than 1b that hit 35/100. Its a supply and demand issue. Sign the dude!

As for Pat Burrell. The Phillies appear ready to just dump him. I'm guessing for VERY LITTLE IN RETURN. I say look into it. He has shown great promise in the past. Look at how bad the WSox wanted to dump Konerko a few years ago. He's definetely worth consideration.

I think Padilla should be at the top of the Cubs list for free agent pitchers. If they sign him right away they get him cheaper than they would if they wait until the studs are gone.

John bring us a great point.

Why not blow half your budget on top players and fill in the rest with low paid role players. Kinda like say, I dunno lets just say

Albert Puljos
Scott Rolen
Jim Edmonds

all who make 12+ million

Everyone was probably laughing at the notion of the Trib letting the payroll go over $100 mil. If they don't raise it, then you just can't squeeze all of those contracts in.

CWTP:
"mannytrillo! Thanks for the reply concerning mutual option clauses in the last thread just before it was closed down."

No problem man, I was going to repost it here, just in case you didn't read it since the other thread got shut down. The site Crunch gave you is GREAT. Use it for reference, or ask one of us contract/payroll specific junkies.

I was originally euphoric over the whole $115 payroll that was floated. I'm pretty much doubting it now. I just don't see why Tribco would take on so much debt if they're trying to sell. Hope I'm wrong...

Rob G.:
"I don't recall, but was that option in Rowand's deal a Gillick creation or a Kenny Williams creation before he was traded?"

That was a Kenny Williams creation. As much as I hate the CHW, I do respect him a good deal.

re #72

Sure, but i thought the Trib would allow the payroll to raise. Maybe I based that on nothing and just a guy instinct but nonetheless...

I doubt it too, but Hendry's career hangs on these next 2 years and Piniella was brought in to win now. I wouldn't be surprised if the embarassment of the impending century mark combined with the last two WS winners has the organization a bit more motivated than usual.

I really doubt a $10-15 million dollar variance in payroll is going to to be a big deal in selling the club, should the Tribune decide to go that route. That's a tiny fraction of the $500 million plus price tag the club would no doubt command, and even then the new owner can always slash payroll if he/she/it chooses.

Another possibility to consider with the rumored payroll increase: that could just be a reflection of the Trib's willingness to do a one year increase to cover the posting fee for Matsuzaka. In other words, the Trib might be willing to let Hendry spend $120+ million this season to land Matsuzaka knowing that the payroll for '08 would return to around $100 million.

tribune's making money anyway...its just not enough money.

a lotta this trouble is a small, but stockholding-heavy enough, group that wants not only only end the expansion the Trib's been on the past 10 years, but to get rid of some of it.

the idea of selling a newspaper or chunk of tv stations like this group wanted to this summer before the election season had even started is/was stupid as hell, imo...

they're underperforming, but theyre not in trouble. some just want them to fall more in line with their media peers in profit and downsizing/focusing is the direction they want it to go in.

If I'm the Cubs, I pencil in Rapada as my loogy for 2007 and include Ohman in my trade bait basket. He has "big league experience", someone will bite. To be fair, Ohman isn't awful, but everyone says he has a crap, Kent Mercker-ish attitude and dude--you're not that good. Hate guys like that.

I make every pitcher on the Cubs big league roster other than Z, Hill, Wuertz and Aardsma available in trade this winter, with the caveat that I want to keep ONE of Eyre and Howry, and ONE of Marshall, Mateo and Marmol. All others can go. Especially Novoa and Dumpster.

it's the long-term contracts I'm talking about though, 5/6 yr deals for Ramirez and Soriano, Matsuzaka whatever, your talking close to $200 million there.

if the posting fee is being roled into this year's budget, it's relatively pointless to go after the guy. You'd still be missing a big bat. But I do not dare presume what goes through the minds of Tribco and friends. It's like entering the mind of a homicidal schizophreniac with multiple personalities.

I can't believe people are even having the nerve to bring up Manny in response to my comments about lack of hustle. Everyone knows Manny is a virus in Boston and I know Chicago would not put up with "Manny just being Manny."

As far as everyone quick to defend Aram by referencing his overall stats... why aren't people defending JP. When comparing all lead off hitters in the majors, JP lead the league in games played, AB's, he had 58 stolen bases, .337 OBP, and batted .301(http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_...)

these numbers are pretty similar to Scotty Pods' numbers in '05. I don't know why people are so ready to get rid of him

a virus with a ring and never played on a losing team. Bastard!

Exactly, never played on a losing TEAM. He has been surrounded by talent and never had to be the leader. Millar, Mueller, Varitek, Nomar, Ortiz, Damon, Wakefield, Pedro, Schilling...not bad company. Aram, like it or not, has to be a leader if we are going to win. We saw this year he does not have it in him.

Surround Manny with the crap that we have on the field and I guarantee his lack of hustle will shine much brighter and you would never think to defend him.

Worrying about Ramirez is a waste of time and money. Zambrano can't pitch all 162 games...however I wouldn't be surprised if he wanted to try. If we don't get the pitching we need we are going to lead the league in home runs and not be able to win the weakest divsion in MLB

these numbers are pretty similar to Scotty Pods' numbers in '05. I don't know why people are so ready to get rid of him

The people who are so ready to get rid of Pierre are similarly unimpressed with Posednik's 05 stats.

Talk to any white sox fan or analyst and they will tell you Pods was essential to their ability to play small ball in '05 and a huge piece to the puzzle that won the Championship. He scared the crap out of pitchers when he was on base...

but hey, the cubs are great at developing young talent. you and "Big John Stud" can hold your breath and rely on our farm system and our ability to develop players...Pie is ALMOST ready.

Pierre didn't hit .301 or have a .337 OBP.

He also only scored 87 runs in around 750 plate appearances. Just so you know, that's really, really bad.

if those numbers are incorrect, blame MLB.com. I put the link where those numbers came from. they were sorted as numbers for lead off hitters in 2006

"Everyone knows Manny is a virus in Boston"

Dammit Rob, you keep taking the words out of my mouth.

As far as team leaders, lets leave that to DLee and Z. Not every big time hitter has to be a leader. Sometimes a leader can be a guy like Eckstein or Scott Brosius (sp)?

I think those Pierre numbers only included times he actually led off an inning as they only include 296 AB's. Pierre hit .292 with a .330 OBP overall this year.

Freddy Sanchez hit .344 and scored 85 runs. I guess he had a lousy season as well.

People do realize runs scored is highly dependant on the hitters behind you right? You are not going to score a whole hell of alot of runs with Perez and Walker as your next two hitters.

Geez get over the runs scored arguement as why Pierre sucks. It doesn't hold any weight.

Not to be Debbie Downer because I love D Lee as much as the next guy, but are we sure he is going be 2005 D Lee, or is he going to be 1997-2004 D Lee.

this is a huge reason we need to start with a pitching staff and work our way down from there.

Talk to any white sox fan or analyst and they will tell you Pods was essential to their ability to play small ball in '05 and a huge piece to the puzzle that won the Championship.

Talk to any analyst or white sox fan who was paying attention (albeit, that might be difficult) and they'll tell you that in reality the White Sox played very little small ball in 2005. Despite the small ball catch phrase, that team's offense was still built around the home run.

Oh yeah and don't forget that the GREAT Ozzie ball/small ball crap actually made the team score over 120 runs LESS than they did in either 2004 or 2006.

It is amazing how clueless some in the media and other places are when they praise the White Sox for the style they played, but yet scored so many less runs.

"Geez get over the runs scored arguement as why Pierre sucks. It doesn't hold any weight."
---

That's not at all what I'm getting at and you should know better. His weak runs scored total is largely due to his inability to get on base.
There's also quite a difference between Pierre and Sanchez. Sanchez was a middle of the order hitter and Pierre lead off in every game but 4, where he hit 2nd in those 4.

Any argument that Pierre doesn't score enough holds plenty of weight. You have to get on base to score and Pierre is a weak OBP player.

Mike, I remember this one time that Pierre didn't get on base and then some dude on the cubs hit a homer a couple batters later. If Pierre woulda been on base when that happened, then that's one more run scored. Just something to think about.

I'll give the Aramis isn't a leader argument some merit, of course I would think that's why we're paying a manager $3-$4 mil a year, but what do I know.

Lee, Z, and even Barrett seem to be taking over the vocal role in the clubhouse. That interview I did with Miles eluded to Scott Eyre as well if I recall correctly.

People act like Ramirez was the only player struggling in May or something, it was a team wide epidemic that only Jock and Barrett seemed immune too and even those two couldn't buy an XBH those months.

Maybe it was just me, but every game I watched in May and June, Ramirez seemed to be pitched around a lot with runners on as is.

anyway Aramis April/May the last 3 years:
2004
308/333/626
306/372/500

2005
241/344/458
289/324/546

2006
197/321/394
266/296/495

Hey, I noticed on the right side of the front page that John Hill isn't listed anymore for email with the other "writers". What happened to the him?

Did the 2 years of losing become too much for him to take and he bailed already? He started out so strong with the novel long posts, maybe he burned himself out.

I didn't even notice to be honest. John obviously hasn't been involved here for awhile unfortunately. I'm sure the couple of folks who had the opportunity to meet him this summer during his US tour could tell you more about him than me at this moment.

I know he started university as those Brits call it, I'm sure that's keeping him busy.

His weak runs scored total is largely due to his inability to get on base.
There's also quite a difference between Pierre and Sanchez. Sanchez was a middle of the order hitter and Pierre lead off in every game but 4, where he hit 2nd in those 4.

Any argument that Pierre doesn't score enough holds plenty of weight. You have to get on base to score and Pierre is a weak OBP player.

And this is where we disagree. Middle of the order hitters tend to be your teams highest run scorers.

It is true you have to get on base to score. But it didn't help Freddy Sanchez. He hit .344 with a .378 OBP yet only scored 85 runs. So why is that? Could that be because the lineup outside of Jason Bay isn't that good? Was the lineup as a whole outside of Aramis Ramirez all that good? Runs scored is a team dependant stat.

Take Tony Gwynn you hit most of his career in the #3 slot. The man finished with a .338 career average and a .388 OBP. Yet how many times did he score over 100 runs in 20 years? The answer is 2 times. It looks like for the most part he averaged around 75-80 runs scored a year. He got on base, but didn't score a whole lot of runs.

If you want runs scored from the top of your lineup put Soriano or Sizemore at the top. Guys that can hit themselves in with the HR. If you can't get them, go get the the Ichiro's of baseball who can hit .330+. Other than that your leadoff hitter isn't going to be the greatest run scorer in baseball.

Hell, Ichiro hit .372 with a .414 OBP in 2004 but scored a scant 101 runs. The year before he hit 60 points less and scored 111 runs. That will happen when your best hitter after Ichiro is named Randy Winn.

Luis Castillo is another great example. He always sports a high OBP, how many 100 runs seasons has he had? A measly 1. He had 5 seasons where his obp was .370 or higher yet he has a very hard time scoring runs. So clearly just getting on base more doesn't automatically = more runs. You make it sound like if Pierre sported a .390ish OBP he should score a ton of runs. It isn't going to happen, not with this team.

People tend to forget that for the last 4 months of the season Pierre's OBP was around .350-.360. In April he hit .258 with a .289 OBP yet scored 17 runs. That would end up being his second highest month total in runs scored for the year. In June Pierre hit .283/.352 but only scored 9 runs. Hell he took it up a notch in July and hit .345/.380, yet only scored 15 runs. How is it possible he can hit 80ish+ points higher in BA and OBP yet still score less runs than his April month? And to just screw everything up he put up a semi OK .333 OBP in September yet he scored 20 runs!

What fueled Pierre's high runs scored totals compared to his runs scored with much higher OBP in the other months? Was it the presence of Todd Walker hitting .358 in April and Lee's brief presence? And at the end of the year was it because of Ryan Theriot providing some hitting in the #2 slot and Ramirez having his best RBI month? Why did Pierre only score 9 runs in June despite having a respectable .352 OBP? Ramirez still had not fully awakened from his slumber, Todd Walker wasn't hitting .358, and the #2 slot was being occupied by a combination of Womack and Perez most of the time.

There are plenty of other things to complain about Pierre than latching onto his runs scored. He doesn't hit for power, everyone knows this, and these types of players are not going to dominate in runs scored. Their ability to score is highly dependant on the team surrounding them.

"Geez get over the runs scored arguement as why Pierre sucks. It doesn't hold any weight. "

To me the number one job of a leadoff hitter is to score runs. Sure it's a team dependent stat, but it's your freaking job. If Johnny Damon had batted leadoff for the Cubs he would have scored more than 87 runs. Had Pierre played for the Yankees he would have scored more than 87 runs as well, just not much more.

Manny you're slacking by the way.

Since the Padres already interviewed Oquendo, the MLB hiring practice rules have nothing to do with Baker's interview. Sorry to drop that bombshell on the Dusty haters.

"There are plenty of other things to complain about Pierre than latching onto his runs scored. He doesn't hit for power, everyone knows this, and these types of players are not going to dominate in runs scored. Their ability to score is highly dependant on the team surrounding them."

You know, I explained to you in the other post that this isn't what I was talking about. I don't understand why you wasted so much time typing all of that. Of course runs scored is a team dependant stat. Looking at Pierre's 87 runs scored in exactly 750 plate appearances is just an easy way of showing that Pierre doesn't get on base enough, it's simple.

If you take into account the 20 times Pierre was picked off this year, his OBP was .303

.303

The Cubs had the 5th best AVG in the NL.
Pierre's low run total isn't because the team wasn't hitting behind him. It's because of his tremendous .303 OBP.

Juan Pierre had a solid second half. If we were talking another 5Mil, the Cubs would probably want him back. The big factors are a) he doesn't appear to WANT to come back and b) the money. He's not worth 8 or 9 mil.

The runs scored don't bother me as much because the overall lineup sucked. Granted a good leadoff man should score 100 runs.

I do buy into the theory that there is an "adjustment" to playing in Wrigley everyday.

Let's just face it: He's not a bum. He had 200 hits, plenty of steals, played solid defensively and appears to have a good attitude.

He'll get multiple offers.

I've got a trade idea:

How about Jacque Jones for Kris Benson?

Baltimore sure needs outfielders and the Cubs sure need innings eaters.

Just think: Anna Benson could take Marla Collins old job!

big john stud:
The Cubs had the 5th best AVG in the NL.

Not to start another stat war, but ouch, that's a pretty bad indictment on batting average. Is it really that worthless of a stat? Either way most of Pierre's value isn't in the stats: It's his ability to pester opposing pitchers.

Realistically, I can only see Pierre going to Houston, Colorado, or back to Chicacgo. No one else would either a. have interest, or b. have the money for him, and he isn't designed for the AL.

For the life of me I can't figure out why the Pirates aren't rumored to show interest in Pierre. They should have some cash, and I don't believe they have a center fielder or leadoff hitter worth mentioning. You would think that this is just the type of 'marque signinging' that would appeal to them, and exciting player who has a good reputation and doesn't cost the world.

"People act like Ramirez was the only player struggling in May or something"

Like Juan Pierre.

Houston looking for a bat...

The Astros have already contacted the agents for free-agent sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez, among others, but aren't permitted to begin negotiating deals until Nov. 12.
Full Story

"Not to start another stat war, but ouch, that's a pretty bad indictment on batting average. Is it really that worthless of a stat?"
--

Yes, it's a pretty worthless way to evaluate offense. A team who can hit for good AVG will still be a weak offense when they have the OBP issues the Cubs have. They've been one of the better hitting teams in the league the last few years, but the lack of baserunners has made them a mediocre to poor offense.

The Cubs just can't find the perfect mix. They overinflate on one part of the game and ignore the rest.

And this shows in their results.

I know there is no way they have gg, obp , powerhitting players at every position. But there is got to be way to figure out to get the right mix, yet it has alluded the Cubs.

Rumors from this morning's papers: Mark DeRosa may be Cubs 2B in 2007 (Ft. Worth paper), and Burrell will waive his no-trade to play 1B for San Francisco if Phils will take Armando Benitez' contract back.

I know DeRosa wants to be an everyday player, but is he everyday material? I don't know a lot about him.

Does that put Theriot on the bench in a role similar to what Ryan Freel had with the Reds?

DeRosa really hasn't played everyday until this past year. He put up a nice season, but you have to wonder about a guy who at 31 was finally allowed to play a full season and put up a career year. He would seem more like a supersub kind of signing for a team with a $100 million payroll, not a starter.

Looking at his stats, he looks like he has a little more pop than Theriot.

How's his glove?

"He would seem more like a supersub kind of signing for a team with a $100 million payroll, not a starter."

You could have said the same thing about Tony Phillips or ... that guy from Seattle who played for Pinella, McClemore? I don't have an opinion on DeRosa either way, but the 'he's a bench player he'll alawys be a bench player' will lead you into missing the next Hojo Johnson.

Ok I am on the Clay Rapada bandwagon, but I think that AZ Phil may be selling him short.

League Inn/App ERA
Southrun 1.32 0.82
Pacific 0.85 3.04
Arizona 0.93 1.08

Just from that, it seems like the more he's allowed to pitch in a game, the better he is. After being wildly successful as a closer at AA, Quade, for whatever reason decided to use him as a LOOGY in Iowa, and he became less effective.

You have to like 1 HR in about 76 innings, no matter where it is or who he's facing.

#116 of 116: By The "Class and Civility" Neal (November 3, 2006 12:17 PM)
Ok I am on the Clay Rapada bandwagon, but I think that AZ Phil may be selling him short.

League Inn/App ERA
Southrun 1.32 0.82
Pacific 0.85 3.04
Arizona 0.93 1.08

Just from that, it seems like the more he's allowed to pitch in a game, the better he is. After being wildly successful as a closer at AA, Quade, for whatever reason decided to use him as a LOOGY in Iowa, and he became less effective.

You have to like 1 HR in about 76 innings, no matter where it is or who he's facing.

----

NEAL: At the very least, Clay Rapada is a Mike Myers-type LOOGY, at best he's a side-armin' Brian Fuentes. I believe he will begin as a LOOGY, and if he can be more than that, he'll probably eventually get an opportunity to show it.

In either case, he's big league ready right now, because he is death on lefties. BTW, he throws sidearm about 75% of he time, but he also can and will throw 3/4.

Tony Phillips played his first full season at the age of 24, Howard Johnson at age 26 and McLemore at age 28. Big difference from age 31. But I will take my chances on missing out of those kind of players. Hendry should be able to put togehter a team of "starters" for $100 million.

Phillips' breakout year was at 32. Johnson's 26 and McLemore's 36. If you average the three of them you get... 31! You seem to be confusing opportunity with sucess.

AZ Phil,

That was really my point, he seems to be death on everybody. Used in smaller doses he appears to have more control issues than if allowed to pitch for 3-5 outs. Randy Johnson in his prime didn't have any trouble with righties throwing his, what, 60% arm angle fastballs and sliders. Just based on the stats he's put up, I'd feel comfortable in trading Ohman or Eyre as part of a deal to get fill one of our 2 or 3 regular slots or 2 rotation spots.

Some Fort Worth newspaper says something and we've already got DeRosa penciled in at 2b for next year?

It's just a rumor, a very obscure one as well.

Some scouting reports on him fwiw.

Fox (probably a few years old)
The versatile DeRosa is capable of playing average defense at all four infield positions and left field, and will not hurt a team at shortstop for short stretches. His hands are soft, his range is good and his arm is strong enough for third, but not ideal to make the throw from the hole at short. DeRosa is an aggressive hitter with average power. He hurt himself last year by swinging at bad pitches and getting behind in the count. DeRosa has average speed but runs the bases well.

Assets
He's a strong fielder with a consistent bat. DeRosa will occasionally surprise with some pop but his calling card is his ability to spray base hits all around the field.

Flaws
Tends to start slow early in the season and struggles in the clutch.

Career potential
Quality utility infielder and pinch-hitter.

Can't say I'm a fan though....

Yeah, stat wise DeRosa doesn't look too good. I've probably seen him bat three times. I'd prefer a full shot for Cedeno than bringing him as a placeholder for EP for $3.5 million.

Rapada does sound like the real thing. If so, let's trade Douchbag Ohman. Relief will likely be at a premium again this winter and Ohman could be a nice bargaining chip. I know it's not likely, but I'd absolutely love to send some relief to the Sox for Garcia. KW has already made it clear that one of the starters will be moved to open up a rotation spot for McCarthy. I'd prefer Garcia, but would even gladly take Vazquez.

The Real Neal:
"You seem to be confusing opportunity with sucess."

No, not really. The players you mentioned all had chances much earlier in life than DeRosa to prove themselves. I think most of the time you get those chances based on actyallu being good or the idea of you being able to be succesful. Manangers must not of thought of that for DeRosa all these years.

I am just saying I would be very hesitant, more like not interested, to sign a player to be a starter who at 31 finally got his "break" to play a full season.

A team with a $100 million payroll should be able to afford a more proven commodity (Durham, Lorreta, etc.) or go with the much cheaper rookie player that you feel is ready to play everyday (Cedeno, Theriot, etc.) and use that money for other positions.

But yes, this is the Cubs and Jim Hendry we are talking about.

Rob G.-
Thanks for the scouting report, that is about what I thought. He would be a very good utility IF/PH for us and would be a quality bench signing if Hendry could land him for that purpose.

Rapada was a pretty high prospect a few years back as well before his arm woes, fwiw.

Some dude in Canada who apparently is in the know (I guess):

http://www.metronews.ca/column.aspx?id=16208&...


ï In baseball, the Chicago Cubs are planning a big trade pitch to the Blue Jays for Vernon Wells ... The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to obtain Miguel Batista, a starting pitcher with the Arizona Diamondbacks the past season after serving as the Jaysí closer in 2005 ... Juan Samuel, another ex-Jay, will be hired as the Baltimore Oriolesí first-base coach this week ... Jose Oquendo, third-base coach for the St. Louis Cardinals, is the leading candidate to become the San Diego Padresí new manager ... The Jays have changed their minds about dumping Ernie Whitt and will keep him as their bench coach, after all ... The New York Mets likely will bolster their lineup with two major free-agent acquisitions ó pitcher Barry Zito and second baseman Ronnie Belliard

BIG JOHN: After the less-than-smooth pre-arbitration hassle Hendry had with Ohman last off-season (they were haggling for several days over 50K and it almost went to a hearing), and with him likely to get upwards of $900K-$1M this time around, and with him being only two years away from free-agency, and since he's kind of a jerk anyway, I would think Ohman will be a prime candidate to be used in a trade this off-season, probably as part of a two or three player package similar to the one Hendry put together last year to get Juan Pierre.

on his bio page from the site:

Marty York is one of Canada's most popular sports columnists with a track record for breaking big stories.

and he seems to be hated by players and other journalists and "known" for breaking big stories (whatever that means).

Wanna see something funny?
Here's Sunshine Al and the Gang sizing up Rapada from last spring when Hendry kept him on the 40-man.
Rob even pops in the conversation after Al tells how Rapada has very little chance of becoming a major leaguer.

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/story/2006/4/2...

Rapada was actually never on the 40-man or 25 man roster btw, it was a mistake by cubs.com.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/581677.html

you need inside access, so here's the relevant part.

What was apparently the result of an error posted on the Cubsí official website showed Rapada as a member of the teamís finalized 25-man roster and opening day pitching staff at the time.

False alarm, but that didnít stop many friends and family from picking up on the lead and calling the 25-year-old southpaw for confirmation.

ìI hope Iím able to turn that joke into a realistic situation,î Rapada says, still sounding not completely certain that it was really a joke after all.

Rob G.:
Thanks for the scouting report, that is about what I thought. He would be a very good utility IF/PH for us and would be a quality bench signing if Hendry could land him for that purpose.

The rumor was that DeRosa is considered for starting 2B for the Cubs. This makes sense because during the '06 season he said that he definitely wanted a starting job somewhere in '07 (in the infield) and would go to a different team if he had to.

Disinformation reigns within the Cubs organization. If you can't protect all the players you want, cause some confusion and hope that works instead.

I'd also forgot about Ohman's arb. negotiations last year. What an ass. Now would be the time to deal him while he has another year of club control left.

Besides Clay Rapada, there are a couple or three other lefty pitchers who are also possiblitites for the bullpen in the near-future:

1. A 2004 4th round draft pick, big (6'7 235) Chris Shaver had surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow last month. He has been used as a starter throughout his career and is a pretty good pitching prospect (probably rated somewhere 11-15), but is projected by some in the Cubs organization as a reliever. Shaver reminds me a lot of Andy Sisco. Prior to the recent change in MLB Rule 5, Shaver was a likely candidate to be added to the 40-man roster this month. But now he will not need to be protected until next off-season.

2. Lanky Dominican Edward Campusano was the closer at Peoria and a 2006 MWL All-Star before getting jumped to AA, and he would be just behind Rapada right now, but he suffered an elbow or shoulder injury (can't remember which, and I don't know how bad, but it was season-ending) at West Tenn in July. If he's healthy, he is a big league lefty reliever prospect.

3. And the Cubs still have not given up on Carlos Vasquez. Some of you may remember Vasquez, because he was placed on the Cubs 40-man roster after the 2003 season. After having his progress sidelined by shoulder surgery in 2004, he returned to action this year and was moved to the bullpen at Daytona before getting a mid-season promotion to AA, and he has been impressive. He is currently pitching in Venezuela. Vasquez had the option to be a six-year minor league FA last month, but opted not to file, which means he probably got an NRI to Spring Training in exchange for signing a 2007 minor league contract with the Cubs.

Also, Les Walrond and Carmen Pignatiello likely will receive NRIs to ST in exchange for re-upping with the Cubs for 2007 (minor league contracts), and both will be given a look (though probably not a long look) by Uncle Lou.

I think the reason Clay Rapada got mistakenly placed on the Cubs 40-man roster at mlb.com & cubs.com last March was because he was invited to travel to Las Vegas with the big club at the end of ST, and somehow somebody took that invitation as a promotion to the 40-man roster. Which it was not. He has never been on the 40-man roster (although I fully expect him to be added to the 40 by November 20th!).

"Hendry should be able to put togehter a team of "starters" for $100 million"

Well that's assuming you have more than 1 proven major league starter.

Add starting pitching to last post.

"If you take into account the 20 times Pierre was picked off this year, his OBP was .303"

Nice made up stat.

I didn't make that up. If you know how to use a calculator, you'll come to the same conclusion. If Pierre gets picked off base, he is no longer on base for the batters behind him. It's simple logic.

Wow did you know that if you take out all the times Juan Pierre hit the ball and it was caught, his OBP is better than anybody?

I don't care how you came to that number, its not a statistic that means anything in baseball.

#106 "For the life of me I can't figure out why the Pirates aren't rumored to show interest in Pierre. They should have some cash, and I don't believe they have a center fielder or leadoff hitter worth mentioning."

I'd imagine it's probably due to Chris Duffy's respectable 2nd half .282/.345 with 23 SB and only 1 CS line. .336/.405 in Sept...makes the minimum, better arm, and Pierre will get $8m per year.

from Jon Heyman of SI (personally not the most trusted source):

As it turns out, Bruce Bochy was the Cubs' fallback choice had Lou Piniella turned them down. Apparently, GM Jim Hendry determined he wanted significant experience, which ,considering the trend toward cost saving, is refreshing.

ROB G:

I just noticed that your server has not been updated to the time change!

I don't care how you came to that number, its not a statistic that means anything in baseball.

Come on Chad, someone can't try and look at how his getting caught negatively affects the team? That's ridiculous.

Of course you should also see how his stolen bases help to be fair, we did that once around here some time ago.

Thanks E-man, of course I have no idea how to fix that. I'll mention it to Ruz.

How about this for fair and balanced reporting, no calculate all the runs he scored because he is really fast. I'm serious. That is the only way to counter balance your stat.

The only way? if you say so....

no calculate all the runs he scored because he is really fast. I'm serious. That is the only way to counter balance your stat.

Or you do exactly what others have done, and simply add an extra base for each SB when calculating his SLG %.

Rob, I am not saying that caught stealing needs to be ingorned. But nowhere in baseball does it count against obp. They are unrelated and have nothing to do with each other. Once a guy is on base, he's on base. You can't hold it against him that the manager tells him to try and steal and gets caught. The factor that the player can control (getting on base) has nothing to do with a factor that he can't control (told to steal).

Except that premier basestealers like Pierre always have the green light, so it's almost always going to be their decision to run.

He only scored 87 times in 750 plate appearances... because he was only on base for hitters .303% of the time. So unless he can run like the DC comics Flash character, his speed don't mean a whole lot.

No manager is telling Pierre when to steal unless he can't resist the urge to hit & run.

----
"Wow did you know that if you take out all the times Juan Pierre hit the ball and it was caught, his OBP is better than anybody?"
----

The fact is that the ball was caught all of those times. Just like the fact remains that Pierre was picked off base 20 times and not on base for the hitters behind him.

.303

It's simple logic and it means plenty.

Or you do exactly what others have done, and simply add an extra base for each SB when calculating his SLG %.

It's not quite THAT simple, but close. Part of slugging percentage is that it advances runners more than a base at a time, which SB's do not. Either hardball times or BP came up with like .6 (don't quote me on that) added to your total bases for each stolen base.

LA Times has the Dodgers pulling out of the Matsuzaka bidding.

Blah blah OBP blah Pierre blah blah...

Everyone knows Pierre's game and his value. How much money he makes will be set by market forces, so none of this stuff (stats) really matter.

Next year we'll probably wish we had Pierre leading off.

Speaking of the Matsuzaka bidding, are there any points along the way where anything will be "officially" announced? # of offers received, and from who(m)? All I think I know is that all bids are due by next Weds (5PM east-coast time, I think), with announcement next Thurs of team with winning bid.

Little help?

From what I've gathered... I think interested teams place 1 private bid and the winner wins negotiating rights. We'll probably hear Monday or Tuesday.

I can't imagine the Cubs are serious contenders for Daisuke, though. They haven't shown a huge presence in scouting the Asain leagues. I think the rumors are mostly fueled by reporters who see the huge holes in the starting rotation and naturally assume any of the high profile free agent starting pitchers could end up in Chicago.

They have until 5:00pm next Wednesday like you said, my bad. That means we'll probably find out Thursday.

Lions have 4 days after the bidding to approve the bid. So anywhere between Nov 9th and Nov 12th, we'll hear.

Chances are we won't know much other than who won the final bid and maybe who actually submitted bids. The actual bid amounts I imagine will be kept under wraps for the most part unless the Cubs actually make a competitive bid and leak that out to show that they tried.

Wow you see the negative BJS and I see the positive.

I see Pierre getting 204 hits, and in roughly 58 of those hits he put himself on 2nd base via the stolen base (I don't know how many times he stole 3rd so I am just roughing it here). He was either on 2nd or 3rd due to hitting a double or triple another 45 times.

So roughly out of his 200 hits, 50% of the time he was in scoring position. That is pretty damn good. Pierre is so damn fast a simple single scores him most of the time. The problem with the Cubs? Just hitting that stupid single.

Kevin Youklis is the model of pure OBP, lead-off hitter. Yet he could only put himself in scoring position around 50 times. It really does help just to get on anyway you can when you got Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz backing you up.

It isn't Pierre's fault he was sitting in scoring position all those times and the rest of the team failed to get him home. I am dealing with some fuzzy math and generalizations because of so many variables but lets also not forget all the times Pierre would simply get to first base and the next hitter would do nothing most of the time. The Cubs didn't have the benefit of a solid #2 hitter like the Redsox had in Mark Loretta who could push Youklis to 2nd base when he walked.

Pierre had his best success as a leadoff hitter when his #2 hitter was performing well. Walker and Theriot. The rest of the time it was a combination of Cedeno, Perez, Izturis. That makes sense because he put himself in scoring position alot to start off games and the #2 hitter could actually do something and knock him in right away.

And people wonder why I get so fanatical about having a decent #2 hitter. I even said this way back when before we traded for Pierre. If Todd Walker can remain as the #2 hitter then the combination of him and Pierre will highlight Pierre's strengths, if Dusty wants to keep on using his shitty #2 hitting options don't even bother getting Pierre. It would be a waste of his talents.

Injuries set in and we got subjected to more of Dusty's lousy #2 hitter philosophy that didn't help Pierre in the slightest bit. Only until the final month of the season when someone, anyone got hot and put up decent numbers did you see Pierre's full value on display. You can thank Ryan Theriot for that.

The Cubs traded for Pierre, but the dolt in the dugout had no clue how to use him.

Blue, you make a good point, however other people don't like that as a stolen base may result in a run scored but not an RBI. higher slugging will indicate higher RBI totals.

Rob, if you want to take away a caught stealing then you have to counterbalance it with something.

MikeC,

Great take on the subject.

John you are totally offbase. .303 represents NOTHING.

Rob, if you want to take away a caught stealing then you have to counterbalance it with something.

Didn't I say that in #143 and #152?

Rob, if you want to take away a caught stealing then you have to counterbalance it with something.

He did, .6 bases for each successful stolen bases added to SLG.

On the other hand, getting caught stealing should probably count for less than a regular out because there was a hit that came before it that might have advanced a runner or driven in a run that a regular out wouldn't have.

Someone ran the numbers on all this in the comments one day sometime during the season or when Pierre was acquired. I can't seem to find it though.

new post up btw.....

no one cares to talk about the Wells rumor? I know just a rumor, but from what I read that guy is pretty legit.

Northside Baseball message boards were suggesting that Barrett would be a key piece, along with Murton or Pie and/or Hill or Marshall.

Rob, I ran the numbers back in September (link).

At that point, his line was .289/.333/.388 (.721 OPS). If you subtracted a base for every caught stealing and added a base for every successful steal, his line changed to: .262/.307/.443 (.750 OPS). Not sure how that would change based on his full season numbers, but I'm sure someone can run the numbers real quick if they want.

Not really Rob. You kinda say it but offer no way of figuring it. My point is this, caught stealing counting against obp is comparing apples and oranges. You mentioned adding .6 points to slugging. Well then we now have to evaluate the whole OPS thing, which I don't like as a stat anyway. But, IF you want the whole .303 to be counted, then you must ONLY look at the new slg at the same time to be fair.

So, Juan Pierre's stats:

actual: obp .330 slg .388 = ops of 718
bjs analysis: obp .303 slg .422 (.6 pts/sb) = ops 725

Will you leave it alone now?

god damn you Chad, now your going to make me look up a 3 month old argument. Fine, I'll get back to you in a minute.

.303 represents NOTHING.

Uh-huh
Except it does represent the low % of times that Pierre was actually on base to be driven in. Other than that, it represents NOTHING.

oh yea, it also represents Pierre's ability to make outs. He was good for an out nearly 70% of the time he stepped to the plate.

Please see how Pierre's OPS is BETTER under you set of circumstances. That is why your stupid stat is useless. But keep trying to prove that it means something even though I've proven you wrong.

OBP is much more valuable than SLG.

Getting picked off shortens innings and kills potential rallies.

OBP is NOT more important than slugging. Maybe in your world, but when you add OBP to SLG, to get a very important Sabremetric stat, they are considered equal.

No one would agree that OBP is more important than slugging.

By no one you mean you and... just you.
You're very wrong, OBP is more valuable than SLG.

Pierre is a decent short-term player for 4-5 million. Anything beyond that and his cost is too much for the weak production he offers. You shouldn't give the most AB's to a guy who makes or runs into an out 70% of the time. Not to mention that many players run at will on flyballs to CF and he couldn't throw Bengie Molina out from 3rd on a sac fly.

No one would agree that OBP is more important than slugging.

yes lots of people would, many studies on it.

why are you trying to argue about advanced metrics when you don't care about them?

there's a stat called GPA, similar to OPS (just not very widespread) that you can find on hardball times. (1.6x OBP + SLG/4)

Well...maybe in a leadoff hitter, OBP would be more valuable?

Either way, Pierre did not get on base enough to be a good leadoff hitter. That's a more valid point than the .303 stat, which is contrived..

Not to mention that he is a 1 tool player. If Pierre has a hamstring or a quad injury, he turns into a 10 million dollar Neifi Perez. No thanks

Not to mention that he is a 1 tool player. If Pierre has a hamstring or a quad injury, he turns into a 10 million dollar Neifi Perez. No thanks

And if Derrek Lee breaks his wrist.... you get the picture.

Well, if any player breaks their wrist that is pretty much it. However, if Ramirez tweaks a hammy (as he has done) he can play through the pain and still be effective (again, as he has done). However, if Pierre tweaks a hammy... you get the picure.

How about this, Aram gets a shoulder injury like Rolen and loses his power. then what?

That whole, if pierre hurts his leg business is crap.

http://www.all-baseball.com/cubreporter/archi...

http://www.all-baseball.com/cubreporter/archi...

those were the 2 threads I was talking about Chad.

Summary, loses about 10-20 points of OBP and gains at most 50 pts on his slugging. Since most everyone who cares about this stuff will say OBP is a bit more important than SLG (especially for a leadoff guy), I'll conclude his baserunning threat is a very marginal advantage at best.

Another article on Hardball Times, said his baserunning skills (not stealing bases) is good for about 5 runs a year at best or so.

And I'm done with this....

He's an okay player, $4-5 -6 mil range, no more.

"He's an okay player, $4-5 -6 mil range, no more."

I was never debating this point.

god damn you Chad, now your going to make me look up a 3 month old argument. Fine, I'll get back to you in a minute.

-

let's remain calm, it's only baseball.

#19
Actually, I've never been impressed. I hope you sleep better.

>

I tried explaining this to BJS once before. Maybe he'll listen to you, MikeC.

Ok, that didn't work, but it was that Pierre was on base plenty of times this year to have scored if the guys behind him had hit better with him on base.

ROB G.: "He's an okay player, $4-5 -6 mil range, no more."

Would $6.4MM be o.k.?

Or - still too much?

I'm still wondering how Colletti was able to fork over $13MM + up a year for Furcal?

I guess today was Cubs humor day on the blogoshpere....

http://www.desipio.com/?p=1222#more-1222

an expanded version of BJS comment #11

Tito won't be amused...

Manny T,

"No, not really. The players you mentioned all had chances much earlier in life than DeRosa to prove themselves. I think most of the time you get those chances based on actyallu being good or the idea of you being able to be succesful. Manangers must not of thought of that for DeRosa all these years.'

Umm, yes really. If a player were to bat 1.000 for 300 at abats, they weren't really good by your logic. I would like to continue this discusion but sentences like: "Managers must not of though of that for DeRosa all these years," prohibit me from doing so. Can you please consider using English or at the minimum Engrish?

If we were to follow your 'logic' out to a 'logical' conclusion, any player who does not have an All-Star appearance by the age of 26 does not deserve to be an All-Star.

Dave,

Let me know if you need my mom's area code.

The most ignorant statement I've seen in a long time on TCR

"Everyone knows Pierre's game and his value. How much money he makes will be set by market forces, so none of this stuff (stats) really matter."

I mean, I could pick apart each phrase, but what's the point? The thorough lack of understanding of 'the game' is breathtaking in it's simplicity.

Ryno,

First of all, change your handle because it's a mockery of an intellgent baseball man. After you have done that, maybe consider that a goood GM doesn't just offer contracts based on 'market forces', but instead finds bargains bases on market inequities.

Christ.

can you knock off the petty insults because you disagree with someone Neal?

Thanks...

"Ok, that didn't work, but it was that Pierre was on base plenty of times this year to have scored if the guys behind him had hit better with him on base."

You can piss into the wind if you like, but I showed that to be completely untrue. Pierre had a poor .330 OBP and when you take into account the 20 times he was picked off, he was only on base to be driven in .303% of the time.

That is nowhere near being "on base plenty".

The Real Neal,
I agree we really can't continue this discussion much more. Your constant childish remarks make it impossible. Listen to Rob G. and other who ask you to stop with the remarks. Grow up and then come back and we can talk.

John, can you find me any baseball statistician who uses your formula?

I'll work on it.

But am I allowed to say 'god damn you' to other posters?

No, Rob, that was one actually kind of amusing.

BJS, a .330 OBP is not desirable for a leadoff man. Agreed. Should be higher. But when you're on base 216 times via hits and walks(and subtracting CS) and only score 87 times, doesn't that tell you the people behind him aren't doing their jobs? Wait, I guess it doesn't tell you that.

2004: on base 221 times (using the same method), scored 100 times. Hmm. Wonder how that might've happened.

2005: with an even worse OBP (.326), on base 205 times (hits/walks, subtracting CS), scored 96 times. Hmm. Wonder how that might've happened. On base fewer times than in '06, scored more runs. Wow.

2001, with a .378 OBP, on base 226 times (hits/walks minus CS), scored 108 times.

With a .378 OBP, on base only 10 more times, scores 21 more times than in '06. I guess that's just luck.

But am I allowed to say 'god damn you' to other posters?

I suppose that was a jab at me. Chad knows I was kidding although I can see why others wouldn't have gotten it. I don't nearly hold the animosity towards Chad that others do around here and Chad and I trade jabs on a Bears blog all the time that's a lot more light-hearted than what goes on around here.

Of course it helps that the Bears are winning. We all just hate ourselves for being Cubs fans around here. It's like living in Detroit in the middle of a heat wave, the crime rate skyrockets.

"BJS, a .330 OBP is not desirable for a leadoff man. Agreed. Should be higher. But when you're on base 216 times via hits and walks(and subtracting CS) and only score 87 times, doesn't that tell you the people behind him aren't doing their jobs? Wait, I guess it doesn't tell you that.

2004: on base 221 times (using the same method), scored 100 times. Hmm. Wonder how that might've happened.

2005: with an even worse OBP (.326), on base 205 times (hits/walks, subtracting CS), scored 96 times. Hmm. Wonder how that might've happened. On base fewer times than in '06, scored more runs. Wow.

2001, with a .378 OBP, on base 226 times (hits/walks minus CS), scored 108 times.

With a .378 OBP, on base only 10 more times, scores 21 more times than in '06. I guess that's just luck."
---

Yes, it certainly was luck. Pierre was playing in Colorado that year. That park was a massive launching pad prior to 2006. Mike Hampton even hit 6 HR one year with the Rockies.

Here's the % of times each player was driven in to score after reaching base in 2006:

Juan Pierre - 40.2%
Rafael Furcal ---- 40.7%
Kevin Youkilis --- 37%
Dave Roberts 42.3%
Mark Loretta 32%

Even with the best 3-4 in MLB hitting behind them, Youkilis and Loretta were driven in less often than Pierre.

This tells us that Pierre really wasn't unlucky at all in 2006. He simply doesn't get on base enough.

End o' subject

Go tell me where I said I disagreed that Pierre doesn't get on base enough.

What I said is that given the number of time he was on base, he should've scored more often. And with the exception of being caught stealing, that's not his fault.

End o'subject is right if you can't get that through your head.

Except that 40.2% is a high number according compared to those other players. What do you think if he gets on base 200 times he should score 120 runs?

Yes, apparently Pierre and his pathetic OBP should've been good for 110-115 runs.

"End o'subject is right if you can't get that through your head."

It seems that you're the one that can't get the facts through your head. Pierre was driven in plenty. He WAS NOT ON BASE ENOUGH to even score 90 runs.

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