Soriano Contract Details

Ken Rosenthal gives us the scoop...
The breakdown of Alfonso Soriano's eight-year, $136 million contract with the Cubs: $8 million signing bonus, $9 million in 2007, $13 million in '08, $16 million in '09 and $18 million per season from ë10 to '14. The contract also guarantees Soriano six premium tickets to the All-Star Game ñ if he is a participant ñ as well as home games during spring training, the regular season and playoffs.
UPDATE: And now the fun incentives come out on Soriano's deal. He's got full no-trade protection and is guaranteed a suite on road trips. He gets the premium tickets as explained above and will donate $50,000 annually split between the United Way Foundation and the Cubs Care Foundation. There's also some performance incentives including $250,000 for collecting most All Star votes, $350,000 if he is selected the World Series MVP, $250,000 for the league championship series MVP, $300,000 for the MVP award and $75,000 for a Gold Glove.
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Comments

Manny- Get Soriano your broker contact so he can make even more cash.

Geesh.

a very well done piece by Tom Verducci on what he calls the YAE (Year After Effect) on young pitchers.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers...

Hill and Marshall are mentioned along with Z and Prior.

SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs have submitted a three-year, $45 million offer to Schmidt.

speaking of Heyman, reporting the top bid for Igawa was $25 mil. I'm going to guess one of the NY teams.

SF Chronicle reported earlier the offer was 3/44 for Schmidt and Heyman's article says "about" $45 mil for 3 yrs, so probably all from the same place.

I can't imagine anyone will get near that in terms of average salary, it really depends on the years and how much Schmidt does want to stay on the West Coast.

" how much Schmidt does want to stay on the West Coast"

If there is Mrs. Schmidt she would probably punch him in the back of the head if he didn't take that money

$25MM for Igawa... wow. Here's hoping the Cubs aren't responsible for that insanity.

jacos:
If there is Mrs. Schmidt she would probably punch him in the back of the head if he didn't take that money

I don't know... he's going to make oodles of money anyways... I know in that situation my Mrs. would definitely be more concerned about location than money.

"$25MM for Igawa... wow. Here's hoping the Cubs aren't responsible for that insanity."

But if they are, I won't complain.

Guys some very solid information:

The Cubs are going to go short-term in Cf, do not want to block Pie. Feel Pie will be ready by possibly mid-season

Cedeno was given the SS job and fucked it up, Farnsworth-style, he is in the shitter now

Soriano will play Rf

Offers are out to 3 potchers Schmidt, Lilly, Meche

A trade is in the works for a pitcher involving one of our outfielders

Well I remember some posters questioning my info. Let's see how things have gone since then...

The next day the papers had Hendry stating he didn't want to block Pie and look for a short-term Cf

Everyone knew the Cubs were in on Lilly and Meche but I figured doubts would come on the Schmidt offer..SF Chronicle and SI reporting Schmidt was offered a deal

And days later Tribune reporting for the 1st time officially that Jones would be trade bait

I'm not trying to prove anything..just saying I wanted to share some solid info and most of it has come to frution. The Schmidt deal would suprise me but I was told they were going to make offers to all 3 and see what would happen by the meetings.

Sorry, fruition ? How do you put the past posts in italics?

Dallas:

Surround each paragraph you want in italics with this: [i] blah blah blah [/i] but replace the brackets ([ & ]) with carrots ().

Thanks Vorare.

Whoops, carrots meaning > &

Dallas-
Thanks for the info.

Ryno-
Agreed, but we are not talking about San Diego -vs- Moosejaw, Saskitwan.

We appreciate the info Dallas, we're just a skeptical group by nature. If you're going to present rumors, you're going to have to be able to go through the doctoral-like defense. :)

But thanks....

So who are the short-term CF possibilities? Kenny Lofton? Gabe Kapler? Preston Wilson? Steve Finley? JD Drew would have been perfect, he never stays healthy very deep into the season.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/436...

Looks like Trib isn't ready to sell of its parts quite yet. The whole shebang is probably still up on the block, but not individual parts.

It was very nice of you to post all that information, Dallas, but finding old posts just to show that you were right isn't a way to go at TCR.

So who are the short-term CF possibilities? Kenny Lofton? Gabe Kapler? Preston Wilson? Steve Finley? JD Drew would have been perfect, he never stays healthy very deep into the season.

I think the options right now are:

Soriano/Jones
Lofton
Pie

but that's just my guess. I'm getting the sense they're quite committed to Pie for the future. And I don't see any good reason to trade Jones away right now. Soriano's going to be our leadoff guy for years on end (like it or hate it), which could be good since Pie isn't ready for that.

I of course, have no idea what the Cubs plans are, but going into the season with this lineup is fine by me:

Soriano
Murton
Lee
Ramirez
Jones
Barrett
Derosa
Izturis

Bench
Blanco
Theriot
Floyd
Lofton
Right Handed Thunder (Nevin, C. Wilson, somebody else)

That's assuming the 12-man pitching staff that has become prevalent. I'm big fans of Wilson or Nevin because they also give you a decent 3rd catcher allowing for more late-inning switches if necessary. I'm sure Wilson can get a DH gig and Nevin may as well. If there not available, I say we talk Glenallen Hill out of retirement.

"Well I remember some posters questioning my info. Let's see how things have gone since then..."

given that i can find newsprint sources for most of your "scoops" how about sharing those sources when available?

only thing i cant find is the "soriano will play RF" stuff that's not only too early to call, but probable. that could change easily with money spent in the OF or an opportunist trade.

btw...your predictions you're calling out to test your proof were in newsprint (jones, pie, schmidt, meche, etc.)

didnt call out the first time cuz well...its none of my business who your sources are. you seem to want to be a regular with the breaking news, though.

just asking for more, but if you dont wanna give it we can just have your self-updates score card.

btw, dont leave out the stuff your source was wrong about on these self-imposed scorecards.

Rob:

Intersting article, but I'd have an easier time believing it if he provided some real examples of pitchers who were brought along slowly and avoided injury.

Just for fun, a few of the more durable major leaguer pitchers over the last 20 years:

Maddux:

18 - 85.2 IP (rookie ball, might be some HS innings on top of this)
19 - 186 IP (minors)
20 - 222 IP (split minors/MLB)
21 - 183.1 IP (split)
22 - 249.0 IP (first full MLB season, healthy since)

Glavine:

18 - 32.1 IP (rookie ball, probably some HS innings on top of this)
19 - 168.2 IP (minors)
20 - 185.1 IP (minors)
21 - 200.2 IP (split minors/MLB)
22 - 195.1 IP (first full MLB season, mostly healthy since).

Clemens:

21 - 81 IP (minors)
22 - 180 IP (split minors/majors)
23 - 98.1 IP (injured)
24 - 254 IP (healthy until age 31)

So Maddux appears to be an exception to the theory, but Glavine is a pretty good example of a player who was brought along slowly and has stayed healthy. Clemens also seems to fit the theory: he had a huge jump in innings from age 21 to age 22, and he spent most of his age 23 season hurt. I guess the upside, though, is that he was able to recover and have a mostly healthy career after that.

Rosenthal's been busy...

Adam Kennedy to Cards for 3/$10 mil (that seems cheap)

Kevin Millar back to O's likely and O's possibly pursuing Aubrey Huff as potential 1b platoon-mate.

cnnsi.com reported that Cubs offer $45M to righty Schmidt.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/basebal...

having a bad day crunch?

3/15-per is nice, but in this market a 3 year deal for a top arm probally isnt gonna get it done.

if it does...scoooooooooooooooooooore.

im having a great day, im just trying to cut through the fat to get to the meat.

if homeboy has a source, how about working him more?

not my business, not my call...but if there's gonna be horn tooting, im pressing for a better song than "taps"

I know repeating info can happen, particularly in long posts, but can we at least check back about 20-30 comments before posting the same Schmidt info.

Dallas Green:
I'm not trying to prove anything..just saying I wanted to share some solid info and most of it has come to frution. The Schmidt deal would suprise me but I was told they were going to make offers to all 3 and see what would happen by the meetings.

Thanks for the update, Dallas Green. If you'll remember, I was/still am one of your "skeptics". Don't take it personal, but when I read something on a blog comments section, and it says "from a solid source, can't say who, just trust me it's solid..." I won't believe them any day of the week. Sorry.

just seemed a bit vitriolic (is that a word?), although I agree with you and Carlos that tooting your own horn won't win you any friends around here.

Levine reporting Stoneman asking for Garland, not Garcia in the reported Figgins & Santana for Crede/starter deal.

"just seemed a bit vitriolic (is that a word?),"

a chunk of the things i write come off abrasive occasionally.

hell, i cant even be bothered to proofread or use a shift button when i type off my brain.

sometimes comes off harsh when its just how i talk.

i know some of the crap i write, like a lotta crap on the net via text, is open for emotional interpretation of my mind while i was writing it.

its only the 'scorecard' aspect of the rumors that compels me to ratchet up the credibility factor and to push the rumormonger to press his source for more useful info.

if he doesnt...well...hey, nothing happens. i have no power to punish or reward, im just a player on the TCR stage.

what a horrible deal that is for the Angels, Stoneman is losing his touch.

Crede's just not that good, Comiskey is one of the best places to hit for a right-handed hitter, the AL West is not.

And Santana's going to be a far better pitcher than Garland or Garcia.

If you're trading Santana, couple a few from that top-rated farm system and get yourself Manny Ramirez.

My sources are telling me that Andy McFail received a bag of burning dogshit on his door-step this Thanksgiving. It was a thank you for being a chickenshit company man who was afraid to ante up for big-dollar free agents.

Cards been super busy...

signing Kennedy, Kip Wells, Gary Bennett and Eli Marrerro according to St. Louis Dispatch

the writer seems to think it might be more like 3/15 for Kennedy which seems far more reasonable.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/y7a35e

On the other hand, crunch, Dallas Green should feel free to say whatever he wants. It should be up to the reader to decide if they want to believe it or not.

3/15 for Kennedy

So is Belliard gone? What did I miss?

"On the other hand, crunch, Dallas Green should feel free to say whatever he wants. It should be up to the reader to decide if they want to believe it or not."

from post 20: "just asking for more, but if you dont wanna give it we can just have your self-updates score card."

from post 26:"not my business, not my call"

from post 31:"if he doesnt...well...hey, nothing happens. i have no power to punish or reward, im just a player on the TCR stage."

im not here to censor anyone and i didnt say a word the first post when people were calling out his predictions. im just soaking it up.

i just didnt see anything new or exciting or not known, aside from soriano definately playing RF, in the 2nd post along with a self-imposed score card.

there's obviously some pride there...im just addressing the pride and asking for more. whether i get it or not...we'll find out. whether he has to or not...definitely not.

Belliard was a FA, they started Aaron Miles in like 2 of the WS games, so it seemed obvious they weren't thrilled with him.

Dallas it's just part of tcr's nature. You have good posters who bring fantastic updates and news like Arizona Phil, Rob, Vorare, Bogey, Jacos etc, and then you have the other half of tcr posters who show up simply to rip apart other people's posts, opinions whatnot (usually the so called regulars) and they bring nothing in terms of actual useful information other than running to a stat site to try to prove to posters, who couldn't care less, that their baseball knowledge is superior to the others. You know, those people who are devoid of a life and original thoughts.

BP's prospect scorecard:

Excellent/Very Good Prospects

EP, VGP
DBacks -3, 0
Braves - 0, 2
Cubs - 0, 2
Reds - 2, 1
Rockies - 2, 5
Marlins - 0, 3

lofton for CF, lofton is a perfect one year solution. if pie has another lackluster season at AAA, you re-evaluate 12 months from now. if he's ready, great. somehow i think the cubs will think he's ready regardless....but you need someone for this year, and lofton had a good year last year (better than pierre actually in every stat other than SBs...and also he had a much higher % successful in SBs which matters just as much really).

i love the idea of trading jones for a pitcher in this environment, esp when the big sluggers are all gone except for drew (who will likely be gone to the sox in the next few days....although we've said that for two weeks). as we saw in the cool "player A/B" comparison column, that's an easy contract to swallow right now.

soriano
lofton
lee
ramirez
barrett
murton
derosa
izturis

and if the cubs can get schmidt for 3/45...wow....i wouldn't want more years for a pitcher who's already 34 so that seems perfect.

zambrano
schmidt
pitcher from jones trade
hill
potluck dinner (prior/miller/marshall/cotts/guzman)

done for the offseason, still have good bullpen depth, and theriot, and cedeno, and marshall, and pie. yikes. sign me up.

I think I'd rather keep Jones and use our bullpen depth for a trade, but you never know what other teams are looking for. It doesn't seem like there's a lot of SP available in the trade market right now.

instead of going for lofton/etc. and paying him 4-5m, personally i'd rather have a 5.5m jones patrolling CF.

it all depends on the trade package hendry seems dead set on doing, though.

team has way too many pen arms and questions not to do a trade.

dumpster/eyre/howry/ohman/wood/wuertz/cotts...

novoa...w.miller...guzman/ryu/mateo/marmol/etc.

the first line alone is a full pen, but w.miller has to have a spot and i believe, though not sure, guzman pretty much has to stay on the roster.

Dallas - Rumors are great they certainly make the winter hot stove action more exciting than last years Cubs regular season. I say keep them coming, readers know enough to discern the truth.

I think they granted the Cubs one more option year on Guzman because of his injuries.

I'm with you crunch, I'm fine with bringing in Lofton for the bench, but as a replacement for Jones, I don't see the upgrade.

i'm not necessarily saying he's an upgrade, however, in a world where adam eaton gets 3/25 or whatever it is to go to a pitchers park, if the cubs need two pitchers it probably makes sense to not go the free agent route for both of them.

does jones have any history in CF? my guess is no but that may only be bc of torii. are we comfortable with murton/jones/soriano 7/8/9? i usually am one to generally downplay defense, but that might be a bit scary.

Rosenthal just doesn't quit..

Counsell to the Brewers is close, Graffanino possibly to the Padres

Gammons reporting more Manny nonsense, says WSox are strong possibility and RSox want 3 players back. Also that Drew deal will be finalized after arbitration deadline likely. Although why wouldn't the Dodgers offer arbitration? They know he's not going to accept it.

"does jones have any history in CF? my guess is no but that may only be bc of torii."

yes and yes.

the cool thing about jones is how well he tracks the OF. no, he's not jim edmonds, but he's not afraid of the wall and he's not exactly a guy to take roundabout paths to a ball.

there's debate, but honestly, CF is harder on the eyes and depth perception and legs than the corner OFs. a guy who can read the ball just a second or two quicker than another guy can mean a lot of difference over 162 games.

soriano's "interesting" OF routes is part of the reason i really dont wanna see him in CF, but like corey patterson, he probally has the speed to make up for some of those visual shortcomings. jones, however, would probally ease comfortably back into the CF role if he is up to it.

"Counsell to the Brewers is close"

not SD? wonder what happened there. they supposedly had him locked up.

Jones has played 159 games in CF for his career, most coming in 1999/2000, he did play 10 games in 2005.

Jones can go get the ball just fine, the only problem with CF is more throwing opportunites for him.

Lofton is pretty scary in CF at this point in his career as well. I'd rather take my chances with Jones defensively. I'd actually rather see if Soriano can handle it, because I do know that Jones can handle the corners and foul territory in Wrigley just fine, I would rather not see Soriano trying to figure that out while still learning just the OF basics.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/yymaas

some financial analyst saying the Cubs recent spending spree doesn't jive with Tribco selling them.

just speculation, but i feel the trib is doing all this crap to guage market worth from outsiders.

its not that the trib isnt profitable as much as it is the trib isnt profitable enough compared to its peers.

they see the mergers and buyouts all the other big media companies are doing and the rise in stock worth that comes with it.

the trib has bought into a lotta underused and stagnant internet company investments and the TV station buying spree + partnership with the WB (now the CW or CB or YOURMOM or something) hasnt been anything spectacular.

its all just a pile of crap anyway...google is what $500 a share now? amazon.com goes MANY years without making a single profit and still enjoys good share value?

market share, even market share that's nothing but potential, is too valuable these days. having potential over profits is more valuable for a while now.

scarey thing is when companies are bid up by people who have no idea what kinda market share theyre investing in...like the RedHat and VA Linux buying sprees on their IPOs and for a year+ afterward.

companies that have some of these high-risk, high-reward market share companies in their portfolio are "falsely" benefiting from their company's outlook.

On May 15 last year, Steve Finley was hitting over .300 and had an .OPS of 888. The the bottom dropped out, and he ended up at .246 and .714.

Finley gives you a left-handed bat for CF and would be much cheaper and much more suitable as a spare OF/pinch hitter if Pie is deemed ready in July.

I can't see Lofton taking short money in this environemtn after the year he had last year. If Soriano is going to lead off, we'd be paying a premium price for a guy with lead-off skills who would not be batting lead-off for us.

And Lofton is not exactly your best attitude guy either.

If Cubs sign Lofton would he not be leadoff hitter with Soriano batting second?
Give Soriano more RBI opportunities.

Lofton
Soriano
Lee
Aram
JJ
Barrett
Murton
Izzy

The Cardinals continue their trend of signing scrappy blue-collar white guys. I'm surprised they got Kennedy for so cheap, but he should be a downgrade from Belliard offensively and not much better defensively.

Everyone seems thrilled the Cubs offered 3y/$45m to Schmidt, though that may not be long enough. What if it takes 4 y/$60m? Still a good deal?

The drop in velocity worries me, as does the fact that breaking balls apparently make Schmidt's elbow hurt, but he's developed an awesome change, and it's very rare to get a No. 1 starter for just 4 years. The HRs will be a concern, but the Cubs have to at least entertain the idea since the trade market has been so dead.

Bruce was just on ESPN Radio 1000 (I'm listening at work on the internet).

Cubs tidbits:
- Says no offer is out there for Schmidt, but Cubs ar interested.
- Trib's coffers are deep, might not be dobne spending.
- Meche a possibility in FA or Jason Jennings in a trade.

carrie's new mailbag from yesterday...

"Now let's compare Pierre's stats with Soriano's"

YEAH! LET'S! =p

---

also this...a question from here from a few weeks ago about the depth chart:

"Center field is vacant on the depth chart on purpose because, as of Monday, the Cubs have yet to designate who their starting center fielder in 2007 will be. If I list Angel Pagan, who is considered a backup, then everyone will think Pagan is starting. So it's blank."

so there you go...its carrie that updates the depth chart you click on at the cubs site.

Soriano will bat leadoff because that's where he feels most comforable and most productive.

I'm bettign that Hendry has about $14-15M budgeted for his new starting pitching, and he decised that he would rather spend it all on one really good one instead of two mediocre ones. Especially when the price of mediocrity is sky-rocketing.

he can still have:

Z
Schmidt
trade
Hill
Miller (or Prior if healthy)

Beyond the contract, it seemed Soriano signed here because the Cubs were the only team really interested in him for leadoff duties.

put this in the wrong post...

---

as it stands...in 09 = 44.5m and 10= 46.5m

Z's contract should be interesting.

so should any pitcher they sign to a deal for more than 2 years.

team's easily looking at appx. 60m tied up into 4 players in 09/10 unless Z's deal gets really creative...

additionally, signing another guy for 8-15m depending on tallent for more than 2 years will also put a scare into that payroll for 09/10.

its not highly unlikely the cubs could have 70+ tied up in 5 players at some point in 09/10...and that's just from 07 signings, not the ones that would/should/could happen in 08/09 preseason.

"Now let's compare Pierre's stats with Soriano's"

I agree that's ridiculous (we are talking about Muskrat, of course, so it's par for the course), but did you see Soriano's stats that she referenced? He was plain bad in situations like RISP, RISP w/ 2 outs, batting w/ runners on base, etc. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm.

Yes. I agree. Soriano will bat leadoff cause HE wants to. Still, if I'm manager, I'd bat him in the middle of the lineup. Leadoff is a bad spot for him. You don't want to waste your power on a slot in the batting order that's preceded by the 8th hitter and the pitcher. That's a recipe for lots of solo home runs. IMHO, the worthless Izturis should ride the pine and Theriot should start at SS and leadoff.

Andrew,

BA w/ RISP and 2 outs is kind of a meaningless stat because the sample size is so small. That's kind of like saying if I flipped a coin every night for a year, then just look at my totals with a full moon. Sure it might be all heads, or mostly heads, but the next year it might be all tails, and then the next year 50/50.

Stats like the one's Carrie is looking at seem like research because they take time to look up and seem interesting at first glance. But they're essentially meaningless in the long run.

Will it change his approach to the game that much by batting second instead of lead off?

He will still be getting fastballs even more so with Lofton on and Lee behind him.

I thought FRobbie said he was easy to deal with.

The San Fransisco Chronicle is reporting that the Cubs have offered Jason Schmidt a 3 year $44 million dollar contract?

The SF Chronicle is saying the Cubs offered 3/44 to Schimdt.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

soriano probally just wants to go with what feels good to him.

the success that gets you where you are can really damn your production if you're scared to try new things. what got you where you are is your personal level of comfort to some, no matter what any stats or logic or scouting says about it.

he kicked and screamed like a baby til he got into the OF and realized it wont wreck his value or make him fade away into a boring crop of LF'rs. he also whined a ton when he was asked to give up SS for 2nd.

he seems to adapt well after these "episodes" though.

eventually he'll be moved down in the order...his speed wont hold forever, at least as compared to where his power will probally hold compared to the speed as time goes on.

maybe in a couple years you can talk Soriano out of it. But the Cubs pursued him as a leadoff hitter and he wants to be a leadoff hitter.

Soriano probably loses out on 20-30 Rbi's batting leadoff, but it doesn't mean someone else isn't bringing in those guys who is batting in the middle of the order.

"soriano probally just wants to go with what feels good to him"

And the contract the Cubs just gave him probably feels really good. So he has his cash he should be open to moving to second in the order.

I don't mean to start a flamewar here, (and I'm not even claiming that you're wrong) but Jacos Jacos Jacos what is the source for this info that Soriano will see more fastballs with Lofton on base as opposed to John Q. Ballplayer on base? People state this as an article of faith all the time, but how do they know it's true?

I don't think it should change his approach that much because he is the player he is and he thinks of himself as a top of the order hitter. Still, I'm pretty sure this notion of his costs his teams a few runs every year because swinging and missing really isn't a good strategy for the top of the order. At leadoff and 2nd your approach should be to not get out. I'm not sure that has ever been his approach.

It really doesn't matter what the Cubs gave him, it's the Cubs who wanted him to be a leadoff hitter as much as Soriano wants to be one.

This isn't even an issue for 3-4 years probably. I do like that Pie will likely start his career in a less stressful spot and just kind of melt into the bottom of order in all likelihood.

Horatio-
You got me, I have no source.

I just the followed the baseball adage that with base stealing threat on base more fastballs for the batter.

Also I would like to see someone on base when he hits a homerun.

Rob,

You may be right about someone else bringing in the runs, but the trouble is that usually that guy doesn't have anywhere near to Soriano's XBH potential.

By the way, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that base-stealing ability (as opposed to pure speed) is better suited for the bottom of the order than the top. After all, an SB only assists one run (the stealer) in scoring. It doesn't have any impact at all on the likelihood of your 3-4-5 putting up a crooked number. However, if your 7 guy is a great basestealer and he gets on and steals, then the odd hit by the 8 or pitcher is worth an extra run.

it dont matter what you throw soriano anyway cuz he's gonna swing at it.

he sits at the front of the batter's box waiting to hack. he sits there hoping to snag late breaking stuff and get a better swing on the stuff before it breaks too much when it is thrown correctly.

you throw, he swings.

guy that runs as fast as he does with aram/dlee behind him...shouldnt be a disaster. power isnt really a cubs problem, especially if barrett/jones stick around...and even murton depending on how you feel about him.

Crunch,

No question that Soriano is a HUGE upgrade to the offense. Where he bats is pretty much splitting hairs, although that's what we do here at TCR. It's practically a guarantee that the Cubs will score more runs than they did last year. Not so sure about preventing them, however...

Would anyone bat Sandberg (circa 84-91) lead off?

Just polling.

"You have good posters who bring fantastic updates and news like Arizona Phil, Rob, Vorare, Bogey, Jacos etc, and then you have the other half of tcr posters who show up simply to rip apart other people's posts, opinions whatnot (usually the so called regulars) and they bring nothing in terms of actual useful information other than running to a stat site to try to prove to posters, who couldn't care less, that their baseball knowledge is superior to the others. You know, those people who are devoid of a life and original thoughts." - Joey

Take it easy. No one who posts or visits a site devoted to the Chicago National League Ball Club is taking time off from curing cancer or developing alternative forms of energy to do it. One could easily argue that when AZ Phil writes an in-depth play-by-play account of the final game of the Arizona Fall League he too should get a life. (No offense, Phil - just a for instance- loved the piece) Some of the snarky comments are what's most entertaining about the site.

I have a wonderful life. Being a fan of the Cubs and visiting this site is the penance I pay for it.

I wonder if Uncle Lou will bat Murton 8th if he has Soriano leading off. Sure, you have the pitcher up after him, but if you have a good OBP guy in the 8 hole, Soriano will get more RBI opportunities than if the lineup had Izturis - Pitcher in the 8 and 9 spots.

Piazza to A's or Phils apparently with Pads still in the mix (Rosenthal article) and Yanks won Igawa's rights (according to WFAN).

Kennedy deal is for 3/10
Kip Wells for 1/4

http://www.wqad.com/Global/story.asp?S=574086...

Trib not making any decisions until first quarter of next year apparently.

Full no-trade... super. A lot of teams are going to the no-trade clause where the player can list certain teams they wouldn't mind being traded to, I wonder why the Cubs haven't gotten on that bandwagon?

Maybe Soriano is planning on starting his own premium ticket brokering service.

Hey, did any of you see that the SF Chronicle is reporting the Cubs offered Schmidt $45 million over 3 years?

:)

griffey traded from seattle to the reds:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2000/0210/348700....

yanks "win" igawa rights, btw.

kip wells got 4m?!?

geez.

oh crunch, go for the joke and then make the same mistake in #86.

D'oh!

My sources are telling me we have made a 3 year offer to Schmidt.... somewhere around $44-$45 million dollars.

This is very solid information..... if it comes true I will repost this to rub it in your faces.

If it doesn't, we can all forget this happened.

Hey I hope we get Schmidt, I am pulling for you rumor whores!

http://preview.tinyurl.com/y4h585

bottom of this article is denying the Schmidt offer btw, saying a Cubs official said they've talked but no offers have been made.

Damn sources.

Damn sources.

in communist russia schmidt signs your sources for 3yr/44m...or so the rumor goes.

This is very solid information..... if it comes true I will repost this to rub it in your faces.

If it doesn't, we can all forget this happened.
---

Little Nate, I thought that was MikeC's schtick. Search the archives to point out correct posts and then ignore all the others;)

Talk can be very specific (and include years and money) without being considered a formal offer.

It's all semantics and posturing.

http://www.casperstartribune.net/ap/headlines...

supposedly Mets offered $15 mil for Igawa and there was another report somewhere that Pads offered over $10 million.

Does this take the Yanks out of the Schmidt running, not that it sounded like they had much of a shot?

Yanks rotation next year:
Johnson
Mussina
Wang
Igawa
Pavano/Proctor/Hughes

Wow, that still sucks for them.

its the yanks...theyre never outta much of anything unless the player refuses to deal with them.

still, though..with igawa that gives them 5 starters so the yanks might actually be done there.

btw...it has just straight up shocked me they let every reliever worth a damn not named borowski and gagne (yeah, i know we're scraping the bottom of the "good" tallent heap here) slip by them.

if anything i thought they'd get speiers and at least one of the guys that's gone through the past few weeks.

I can't believe Hendry hasn't snagged Gagne. He loves guys coming off of injuries. Gagne's one that I wouldn't mind him taking a chance on, though.

Don't shoot the messenger, but a PBP study on saving bad throws in 2005 for 1b.

http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=85

Pujols well ahead of everyone, Dlee is second. Doesn't actually say the percentage of bad throws saved which would be nice or a definition of a bad throw. (in the dirt, over the head, off the bag). And what about reach and wingspan? A throw that Lee could easily grab over his head or to his left that Pujols might have to jump a little for or reach farther for? Same goes for balls in the dirt. Does Lee's height/potential reach advantage prevent throws from actually hitting the dirt that Pujols can't get to?

I just wish it was explained a little better rather than just try and tout his "Fielding Bible" findings.

Gagne's a mess right now, he might end up just getting a minor league deal.

And I doubt the Cubs will spend anymore cash on the bullpen.

That's called buyin' low...WAY low.

OH, and:

BANG, BANG! you Pooholes lover. ;)

#97- http://www.casperstartribune.net

Casper, Wyoming breaking MLB news?!?!?

Wow!! Move the DRays up there pronto.

it was an AP report, they just showed up first on my newsfeed I guess.

some Bruce Miles fun over at NSBB:

Regarding a question on the rotation and CF:

Two lesser free agents in the rotation unless something happens with Schmidt that changes everybody's minds and allows him to come here. For now, they'll pencil Jones in center. If they can find a left-handed bat who can play CF, they'll try to trade Jones. The wild card is Pie. If he tells the Cubs he's ready (by his play, of course), he could be in CF sometime in 2007. The center-field situation is very fluid right now. I expect a lot of activity in Orlando next week.

Also said that he's heard nothing of a Schmidt offer and $15 mil sounds much higher than what he's hearing. And this...

I don't believe an offer was made. Remember, agents like to float a lot of things, especially to get the market going

Also pointed out that Levine is also reporting no actual offer has been made.

http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?...

Cards going to make an offer for Schmidt though

Cards also met with Soriano and agent but too much money

"Cards going to make an offer for Schmidt though"

I'm guessing they are making an offer like the pre 2006 offseason Cubs "made offers" for FA's.

I'm guessing they are making an offer like the pre 2006 offseason Cubs "made offers" for FA's.

I'm not so sure. There are reports they're bumping their payroll up to $100m (or even a little more) and if that's true, they've definitely got some dollars to spend. Especially considering they got a second baseman (Kennedy) and a 5th starter (Kip Wells) for about $7m next season.

I'm not saying they're going to turn into the Yankees, but unfortunately I wouldn't be shocked if they try to land Schmidt, esp. if they determine they want to leave Wainwright as a closer.

"unfortunately I wouldn't be shocked if they (the Cardinals) try to land Schmidt"

Thats reason enough to overpay.

The Cubs and Astros have made some pretty big moves already this off-season. Maybe the Cardinals are feeling the pressure to upgrade their team. Suppan, Marquis, Mulder, and Weaver are all FAs, so they definitely will need pitching. If they can afford it, why not go after Schmidt?

"If they (the Cardinals) can afford it, why not go after Schmidt?"

Maybe they are intent on sitting on just one World Series championship for the next 98 years?

*Finley gives you a left-handed bat for CF and would be much cheaper and much more suitable as a spare OF/pinch hitter if Pie is deemed ready in July.*

Um, Finley is 50 years old and no longer does roids. Pass.

And please, people, take some saltpeter for your continuing Kenny Lofton hard-ons. You know, the ones you've had since 2003.

RUMORS! ANYTHING NEW tonight?

Anyone listen to Kaplan & Waddle? Bruuuce Levine report in?

Its getting close to the 4th of December!

well, i dunno if its been said, but supposedly there's a 3/44-45m contract on the table for schmidt from the cubs.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6218276

More Rosenthal but nothing new, a brief mention of Lilly and Batista in association with the Cubs, but nothing new.

lol crunch.

Hey! Who beat the shit out of that horse?

funny crunch...!

You mean THIS: "Cubs | Schmidt offer on the table
Tue, 28 Nov 2006 12:45:57 -0800

ESPNews reports that the Chicago Cubs have offered free agent SP Jason Schmidt (Giants) a three-year, $44 million deal."

Trib is reporting Cubs "sources" are denying the Schmidt offer.

http://tinyurl.com/vdtr4

Anyone got anything else to BS about tonight?

Well my sources say that there's a good chance that the Giants might make a trade for Kevin Mitchell and a petrfied Natilie Portman covered in grits.

my sources are denying the sources that are reporting the schmidt deal is off.

LONG LIVE 3YR/44M SCHMIDT OFFER ON THE TABLE.

"#117 of 121: By The Joe (November 28, 2006 11:55 PM)
Hey! Who beat the shit out of that horse?"

Being a pacifist and all, I doubt it was you. jk!

BTW, Jason Schmidt called, were there any messages for him?

Oh wait, wrong joke.

(does anyone remember that phony phone call?)

Providence Journal reporting RSox and Drew for 4/56-60ish with some sort of 5th yr option.

Also part of Drew's deal with the Dodgers was that they could not offer arbitration to him although for some reason they still have to wait until after Sat to announce the deal.

Also says Manny deal isn't really that close and there's more than 4 teams that have been asking.

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/projo_200...

The Cubs and Astros have made some pretty big moves already this off-season. Maybe the Cardinals are feeling the pressure to upgrade their team. Suppan, Marquis, Mulder, and Weaver are all FAs, so they definitely will need pitching. If they can afford it, why not go after Schmidt?

Cards look like they will retain Weaver and they just signed Kip Wells so I'd imagine their rotation will be

Carpenter
Weaver
A.Reyes
Wainwright
K.Wells

If Weaver is retained they'll probably just look to add a #5 type starter for insurance maybe keep Marquis. If Wainwright is going to stay in the pen as closer then the Cards will probably look to land Jason Schmidt, Gil Meche, or extend Suppan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manny_Ramirez#.2...

Did anyone know that Manny and Aramis are cousins?

has a great rundown of "Manny being Manny" incidents

Do they have any other cousins? Preferrably one that plays CF and one that pitches?

well there's....

Elizardo Ramirez (LHP - Reds)
Hanley Ramirez (SS - Marlins)
Horacio Ramirez (LHP - Braves)
Ramon Ramirez (RHP - Rockies)
Santiago Ramirez (RHP - Nats)

Center might be a problem but we'll have to track down the ancestry on the pitchers.

Guys, just got home from work and enjoyed reading the posts!

I love TCR ! Doubters and all. This is the best association of Cubs fans out there. This is the format for serious and knowledgeable fans. This isn't the message board at Cubs.com or the teeny-bopper club at NSB. With that being said, I spend way too much time reading shit about the Cubs. The off-season is my favorite time. I would never be offended by anyone's doubts because I'd be skeptical too. The word "source" is kind of dirty sounding though. I wasn't fed information, it came up in a conversation and what I told you guys was harmless in my opinion. So I will continue to send along any info that would be fun to pass along. I might hear some more stuff this week. I was just having fun with the scorecard.

Does anyone else have the feeling we have two options.. Schmidt/Marquis or Lilly/Padiila/Meche and someone like Jennigns/Westbrook?

Option 3: Reversion to "Old Hendry."

I think Old Hendry only exisited under old Andy last year. I think that is over now. Pretty sure Hendry would have gotten his man Furcal if Andy wasn't there last year. However, I'm glad it all happened because were better off now with John Mac, Hendry, and Lou.

if the cubs signed schmidt, zito, padilla, or lilly...or somehow traded for hudson/beckett/etc...i could care less who hendry thinks is the other piece of the pitching equation, myself.

i'd really like to see padilla.

hell, i'd really like to see schmidt, but im not aiming that high looking at Z's upcoming contract and the already freaky-high money being piled onto years 08-10 spread out over a small part of the 25 man roster.

still, who knows where this money train is gonna begin or end. so far there's been 2 high money deals where the 07 year is paying peanuts (aram/soriano) and bonus money is taking a chunk of the official payroll load.

radio free elgin is reporting the cubs have offered mike schmidt 3 million dollars for 44 years. or i was still asleep.

I agree with Crunch - Padilla has the best stuff of the "2nd tier" guys.

And - he pisses offf Ozzie by throwing at his guys!

Dumb-Ass Signing Department:

S. Williamson to the Orioles, $900K plus bonuses...HA, HA!

Also, Paul Bako, $900K

Williamson for 900k seems like a pretty good deal to me. At worst the O's are spending under a million for bullpen filler, and at best they've got a decent arm for well under what other set up guys are now getting.

I thought Bako was going to make at least $1.5 million, or at least that what someone kept telling me. Is that money to stay with KC or did he sign somewhere else?

Espn.com reporting-
Schmidt not interested in coming to Chicago.

Schmidt wears a sweatband under his hat and does not want to bring his smelly sweatband to anti-sweatband Chicago.

Dusty Baker told him that Chicago is not tolerant to different looks.

On IZTURIS:

In trying to look for redeeming qualities in our #8 hitting, slick-fielding SS, I came across the following from an LA Dodger's Blog - its interesting reading from a fan sorry to see him go:

http://park.mlblogs.com/words_from_the_park/2...

"Espn.com reporting-
Schmidt not interested in coming to Chicago."

Link?

Link?

Based on the headband reference, I'm going out on a limb and guessing it was a joke.

I figured the headband part was commentary. Thought you were serious about the "not interested" part. I live in the SF Bay Area and I wouldn't have been surprised to hear it.

a little surprised no one brought this up yet

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/quickhits/1525...

most interesting thing is the summary at the bottom with bill james' new projections for 07. let's just say rich hill is featured prominently...this is a little crazy but i'd rather have more players james likes than less. schmidt and soriano also appear to do well, although if this were a little less mainstream (read: more important) on the stat categories

...i'd be a little more satisfied

"I live in the SF Bay Area "

Next to Chicago, my favorite city in the US.

Green Lantern-

"Rich Hill 3.40" according to Bill James.
I can live that.

WOW!! If Hill could come through like that, next year will be the year. I know it's a prediction but it's cool to see James likes him.

Maybe Cubs can duplicate -
"Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"

Hill and Zambrano and pray for homers hit by Soriano.

There's a distinct lack of Zambrano at the top of those pitching projections. Anyone with access to James' handbook care to tell us what his projection is for Big Z?

"Next to Chicago, my favorite city in the US."

Yup, Chicago is still first for me, too. Still follow all my teams, which is why i got the headband joke.

The Hill stuff doesn't surprise me much. He's got a bodacious curve ball but, unlike fan fave Shawn Estes he has other stuff, too. Last year he seemed to be tossing a nice change late in the season, and was placing his fast ball.

But Hendry still needs to add starting pitching. Schmidt is a risk but I wouldn't mind seeing him in Wrigley.

ESPN is reporting Yanks won bidding rights to Igawa with $26 million offer.

Looks like the Redsox Matsuzaka negotiations are not going so well.

The Sox believe Daisuke Matsuzaka to be worth roughly $7 million to $8 million annually while Boras puts the number at somewhere near $15 million per. That sent Sox president Larry Lucchino scurrying to Japan in hopes of getting a cost-cutting rebate from the Seibu Lions.

Which puts Matsuzaka right in the same area Ichiro and Matsui were paid when they crossed over. However the MLB commissioners office has said they will not allow the Redsox or anyteam to seek a rebate or renegotiate the posting fee. That process would be unfair to other teams that bid. Just imagine if the Redsox and Seibu agreed to lower it to 25 million? That would be unfair to teams who bid 30 million.

Rotoworld said the same thing about Igawa...

Tellem is the agent for fellow Yankees Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi and is known to have a good relationship with the team. It's still possible the Yankees will ask the Hanshin Tigers to kick back a portion of the posting fee. It's hard to see Igawa being worth the $40 million-$45 million for three years the Yankees might be spending here.

Not gonna happen.

I'm sure Mr. Proactive Bud Selig would step in.

MikeC:
The Sox believe Daisuke Matsuzaka to be worth roughly $7 million to $8 million annually while Boras puts the number at somewhere near $15 million per. That sent Sox president Larry Lucchino scurrying to Japan in hopes of getting a cost-cutting rebate from the Seibu Lions.

Ryno at November 5, 2006 08:58 PM:
I predicted a couple weeks ago he'd get about $8 mil/year. That's too much for him, but that's just how the FA game works. $10 mil would be silly.

Red Sox brass reading TCR?

regarding seibu lowering the bid...

you could certainly have a rule that says that the bid can be reduced as long as it's still greater than the second team's bid.

i'm guessing that the rule as is was negotiated by the JBL with the MLB to help japanese teams in the long run by taking advantage of large overbids by the winning team (as has happened already with igawa and matsuzaka apparently)....but 51 mill is way more than seibu's entire payroll...they would be much happier getting a mill over what the second place bid was than nothing at all....seems silly that they can't negotiate with the red sox to bring it down to there, if both accept, it doesn't affect anyone else.

You pay what you bid if you want the player. If you don't want to pay that much, don't bid that much. You can't start renegotiating the amount after you have won the bid. It defeats the entire purpose of the posting system.

Got to disagree with you 100% GL.

http://feed.insnews.org/v-cgi/feeds.cgi?feedi...

says the Cubs made an offer to Counsell at some point, I would assume before Derosa or maybe as a bench guy.

Hee Seop signed a minor league deal with the Drays...

I'm not really versed on Japanese baseball and I'm not sure how many Korean players play there or how they'd be treated, but shouldn't Choi just play in Japan and go hit 50 homers a year?

man, Counsell got 2 yrs and a club option for 2009.

The posting system is a joke in general, so I really don't care if teams try to circumvent the silly rules. Other than the PR nightmare it would cause, I really don't think the RSox would be that bad off if they can't make the deal work. $7-$8 mil a year is more than fair imo, so I don't see where Boras could possibly get Selig to intervene. Not to mention that I'm sure the RSox could spend $51.1 million in better ways, like keeping Manny and signing Drew.

I guess Olney is saying something about the Rangers and Padilla being close to a deal, fwiw.

Re: Matsuzaka -

I knew that the Red Sox posting fee was in bad faith the second I heard the amount. No way are they going to sign him and then have to pony up 51 million. This was a purely anti-Yankee maneuver. Good for them - they gamed the system to their advantage. Now the Yanks posted $25 mil for a Japanese Miguel Bautista. Let's just hope the result of this is that they change the rotten posting process. I don't have an idea for a alternative at the moment, but there's got to be a better way.

"#138 of 157: By the E-Man (November 29, 2006 09:56 AM)
On IZTURIS:

In trying to look for redeeming qualities in our #8 hitting, slick-fielding SS, I came across the following from an LA Dodger's Blog - its interesting reading from a fan sorry to see him go:

http://park.mlblogs.com/words_from_the_park/2..."

I was at that game he talks about. Funny thing was I wasn't even paying attention to the new shortstop as I had never heard of him but rather wanted to see this new Japanese "phenom", who pitched well that night.

where's the bad faith by the Rsox? They want to sign him for a very reasonable $7-$8 mil (and I'm sure they'll go up to $10 maybe $12 mil), just not the insane $15 mil Boras is currently asking for someone who's never pitched stateside.

Anyone with access to James' handbook care to tell us what his projection is for Big Z?
Posted by: vorare

Sure, here you go vorare:

BILL JAMES 2007 PROJECTION FOR CARLOS ZAMBRANO

32 GS/ 212 IP/ 17 HR/ 98 BB/ 191 K/ 11 HB/ 14-10 W-L/ 12.0 BR/9 / 3.48 ERA/ Injury Risk -- HIGH!

you know the Bill James projections just take into account past performance(including minor league numbers for newbies) and age factors and plugs them into a spreadsheet. It's like basing a season on PECOTA numbers.

Hill's going to come out high cause he strikes out a ton of guys and kept his walk rate low in the minors.

Luckily they still play the game....

The bad faith is in the fact that they will make a "reasonable" offer that is totally out of line with a) the market for No. 1 starters and b) a guy who just posted for $51 million. It's bad faith because they never intended to make him an offer that he would accept. And they won't.

Jason Schmidt money - $15 per - is what Boras wants. And why shouldn't he? After posting for 51 million how is someone going to say he's not in the exact same class as the top pitchers on the market? The fact is that the Red Sox do not want to sign him. They are lowballing him on purpose. They're not even halfway where they need to be. They just would rather not spend the 51 million. It is enough the Yanks do not have him.

And while I'm at it, here's

BILL JAMES' 2007 PROJECTION FOR RYAN THERIOT

(note the number of games and AB's)

G 149/ AB 536/ H 154/ 2B 29/ 3B 6/ HR 3/ R 77/ RBI 49/ RC 75/ BB 57/ K 59

///SB 31/ CS 10/ SB% .76///

.287 .357 .381 .737

Injury Risk LOW!

Sounds like our starting SS. Oh wait, he can't start because he's "unproven."

Thanks, CWTP. It's interesting that he sees Zambrano cutting back on the BBs and the HRs from last season while actually raising slightly in ERA. I'm not quite sure how that follows since it suggests he'd have better control and be less hittable.

well there you go, 149 games for Theriot pretty much tells you how good those projection systems are....

I guess we'll see in 3 weeks Horatio. I don't think you send the team president to Japan just for posturing sake. And Daisuke can't go back to Japan anyway, Seibu doesn't want him and the whole country expects him to pitch in the US next year. In 2.5 weeks, his price is going to start dropping significantly.

Z had the 2nd lowest BABIP this year among pitchers with 150 innings or more. That's someting that tends to correct itself from year to year and would offset his lower BB and HR totals, if he did do that.

Please, offering Matsuzaka the standard 7-8 million a year on a 3 year deal is entirely reasonable. It is not overly expensive in case the player turns into a bust.

I think it is way more money than they would make in Japan right?

In the end teams are still taking chances on unknown qualities despite beliefs of how good he really is. Japanese players are getting a hell of alot more money than drafted players to transition into pro-baseball in America.

I see it more as a 3 year trial and error program. Japanese player has 3 years to prove how good he really is in the American game and the years allow you to determine whether it was a fluke or not. After those three years they then can go out and sign the huge deal if they are good enough like Ichiro and Matsui did.

Matsuzaka still has to pay his dues and prove his worth in the American game. By time a 3 year deal is up he will only be 29, and if he turns out to be as good as advertised he will be making close to 20 million a year on his next contract.

The Redsex are being entirely reasonable in this. And Boras is doing what an agent should do. Get the most money for his client. In the end it is Matsuzaka who will decide how badly he wants to play in America, not Boras. The ball is firmly in the Redsox court, all Boras is hoping is to drag on these negotiations as close to the deadline as possible in order to scare them into $15 million. I certainly hope the Redsox don't get sucked into that tactic.

Redsex...hehe typos are cool.

On Matsuzaka:

The problem with bidding $51MM just for the rights to negotiate with a player is that you're sending a pretty damn clear message that you consider him "Ace" or top-tier material. After that kind of bid, you can't turn around and in good faith claim that you think the guy is worth less than second tier talents like Meche and Lilly.

"#167 of 172: By Horatio (November 29, 2006 02:22 PM)
Sounds like our starting SS. Oh wait, he can't start because he's "unproven."

He can't start cause we already have a starter.

fair enough Vorare, but talks have just started. Boras is going to aim high, RSox are going to aim low. I have little doubt something will get agreed upon in 3 weeks or how much time they have because in about 2 weeks, Daisuke is going to get a call from Seibu about how he should strongly consider whatever the hell the Rsox are offering and that Seibu isn't going to be very welcoming if he's thinking about coming back.

Alternate to the posting system? How about the draft? Get the Latin and Asian guys in there. Matsuzaka should be property of the Devil Rays or Royals or ... wait, who was the third-worst team last year? Someone from the NL Central, I think.

Mats has almost Zero leverage in this deal. If he doesnt accept what the redsox offer. He has no choice than to go back to Japan. If he remains injury free, he has to go through the same process again next offseason. No way he wants to play 2 more season's in Japan for an unguaranteed 2.5 million per season. The injury risk with pitchers is such that 3 years at even 5 mil per season would be alot better for him than 2 years and 2.5 per in Japan. If I am the redsox, I hold the line on this one.

Rob:

Yeah, I think something will get done too. I'm guessing the dollars will be somewhere in the middle ($10-12MM) and Matsuzaka will get his free agency clause. Maybe they'll end up working in a lot of incentives, but that doesn't seem like Boras' style.

As for the posting system, yeah - it's severely screwed up. There's way too much room for manipulation, advantage taking, and outright misrepresentations. Hopefully the insane bids from this offseason will force some movement toward reform.

Saying Theriot can't start because we already have Izturis is sort of like saying, "Let's not uncork this wine from Argentina, it might be sour you know, plus we already have a nicely chilled box of Franzia in the fridge."

It's not like Seibu doesn't want him on their team, guys. Something tells me if DM went back to Japan and led his team to another championship (I think they won last year) they wouldn't be crying too much. Plus, wouldn't Seibu cash in on more merchandising with another year of mr. gyro? Maybe that's not worth 51 million, but over the next few years, maybe it is. I haven't done the math. It's not like another year of being able to watch bigger-star-than-ever DM would exactly be a letdown for the Japanese League.

Hopefully the insane bids from this offseason will force some movement toward reform.

Hear hear

love or hate him...izturis was specifically targeted to play SS and will get 1st crack. guy isnt under a 8 year deal or anything. if his D is good and contact is good he'll probally be back in 08, too.

if not, theriot or etc. will get to step up and hit little dribblers to RF as long as that holds up.

i'd take either, but what i think doesn't have crap to do with what's gonna happen barring trade or injury. they're not gonna pay him 4m to sit around and try to learn 2nd/3rd off the bench for 250abs.

Seibu controls his rights for another year. They can take him back and repost him next year. Baltimore will bid 60 million and pull the same stunt.

Yep, a deal will probably get done between Mats and the Red Sox, and they also undoubtedly won't actually pay more than $25 million to Seibu.

Also, according to Buster Olney (yeah he's a hack, but a famous hack):

"When it comes to high-profile negotiations, writes Tony Massarotti, agent Scott Boras is willing to kill the hostage . . . Many, many eyebrows have been raised around baseball that the Red Sox are now talking about forging a relationship with the Seibu Lions. The public and private response of other teams to this will be something to watch going forward. "

'Forging a relationship' sounds a lot like "We're only going to give you half of our bid, but we'll sell some t-shirts for you too".

I hate the Red Sox. At least the Yankees were always open and shameless about outspending everybody. For the last 15 years, all I've heard is this holier-than-thou attitude from the Red Sox about how terrible they have it with the Yankees in the division, and then still spending $120 million, except on Jose Offerman instead of Jason Giambi.

Seibu wants the $51.1 million they're expecting and if you goes back this year, there's no way they get that money next year because teams are going to be a lot more scared to bid next season knowing that reaching an agreement is going to be a major problem.

There is absolutely no chance that Selig will allow an amount less than the posting fee to be wired to Seibu. Absolutely. No. Chance.

Next year's winning bid: 1.21 jiggadollars. "On second thought, now that we won, can you make that look more like $14.5 mill?"

fyi...vice president of mlb baseball operations has already released a statement saying in no way of any kind of money shuffling will result in the bid amount being paid back into BOS as part of negociations.

besides...extortion a isnt very good professional mannerism. this is baseball excecutives and a baseball player, not the mafia and a truckload of stolen cigarettes.

It's not like Seibu doesn't want him on their team, guys.

Actually, I don't think they do. They are nearing bankruptcy, and really need the cash.

horatio: you just make a rule that it has to be the second bidder's amount....see my post above. that way you can't screw around with it too much.

draft for foreign players is tough bc they are signed by their local country teams very young....you can't just take them. and it's not really fair to draft them when their contracts in japan expire bc then they're not free agents until they're like 33 years old....not an easy solution.

Yeah, I'm sure Selig is going to make sure the Red Sox transfer $51MM to Seibu, but he isn't going to be able to monitor what Seibu does with the money. As I said awhile back, if I were the Red Sox I'd try to work out a deal with Seibu whereby Seibu would pay some portion of the bid amount ($2-3MM per year, maybe) to Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka would in turn give the BoSox a break on his annual salary, and all parties walk away happy.

I'll have to disagree, Rob. If Boras was asking for $25 million a season, maybe you'd have a point. Teams would be scared that the posted player would make an outrageous demand and be unable to meet it. But Boras isn't doing that. He's asking for exactly the same amount as the going rate for No.1 starters (or guys who just posted for 51 million, which sorta indicates that the team who did that thinks of you as a No.1 starter). Jason Schmidt money - no more, no less. Why should Boras or DM give Boston a discount just because they posted all that money? DM isn't going to see dollar one of that amount. What does he care that the Red Sox broke the bank? He and his agent are making the perfectly reasonable demand to be paid at the market rate. And Boston is purposely lowballing. If there's any "difficulty" with this deal, it's on Boston's end, not Boras's.

ROB G.: "I guess Olney is saying something about the Rangers and Padilla being close to a deal, fwiw."

S H I T!!! NOOOOOOOOO!

He's my favorite 2nd level guy!

Maybe Hendry will step in tonight?!

Well if the Sox get caught doing any of that under the table crap, I hope they get their draft picks taken away for the next 3-5 years a la the Minnesota Timberwolves. If you let teams break the rules, you might as well not have any rules.

I'd almost say that the winning bid is a guaranteed payment and then the player immediately goes to arbitration. Also, the agent receives a flat commission. That way, neither the team nor the player nor the agent can fuck around.

Horatio....the market rate for a star Japanese player coming to American Baseball is 3 years 21 million.

Look it up.

guys...this is old stuff.

this happened with ichiro and it feels like the same conversation now as it was then.

mlb is watching all this crap pretty closely cuz of the "backroom" ichiro deal and it came up during the matsui stuff, too. if BOS does **EXTORT** money outta the lions for any reason, MLB should act.

the power they have to act and the punishments they could levy, i have no idea.

this would most likely close down the posting-club, which btw heavily favors the rich teams like BOS in the first place.

besides, the conspiracy theorists are working overtime on how blown up some of these negotiations are supposedly going and how much seibu is actually worth in any kind of partnership with BOS.

this isnt a manchester united/yanks type thing...

The market rate for No. 1 starters is $15 mil per. Look it up.

Why would I as a team bid $51 millionish next year and pay $15 mil a year? And why would Seibu want to risk losing the $51 mil bid on blind hope they get something similar next year?

Anyway, we'll see in 3 weeks, but my feelings are that despite all the posturing in the world by Boras right now, Daisuke really has no interest whatsoever to return to Japan, Seibu doesn't want him back and he'd look like a fool in his country where those things still seem to matter. And in the end, he'll accept whatever is being offered at the time.

Let's talk again in 3 weeks...

"#179 of 196: By Horatio (November 29, 2006 03:11 PM)
Saying Theriot can't start because we already have Izturis is sort of like saying, "Let's not uncork this wine from Argentina, it might be sour you know, plus we already have a nicely chilled box of Franzia in the fridge."

PULEEZE. Theriot is not a fine Argentinan wine. Izturis has a better glove and will hit just as well as Theriot. You need defense up the middle and you can't do much better than Izturis.

I actually used Argentinian because they're kind of hit or miss...

I'm sure the RSox can easily counter the #1 money argument by using the MLB draft as an example. Huge bonuses to unproven talent, but relatively low salaries. In this case the bonus money ($51.1 million) is more than a draft pick gets, but on the other hand, the average salary Matzusaka will get be much more...

Of course the bonus money isn't going to Matszusaka in this case, but there's certainly enough precedance there that Matsuzaka does not get the same treatment as your run-of-the-mill FA.

who knows if daisuke is a #1, though

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