Following In The Footsteps Of Ruben Quevedo

In honor of Wade Miller (the Frontrunner), Angel Guzman (the Contender, at least until earlier today), and Mark Prior (the Bystander), here is a list of recent Cubs' #5 starters, defined as the pitcher with the fifth most starts in a given season. Note: portions may be unsuitable for more sensitive viewers. 1997: Frank Castillo, 19 starts, 98 IP, 6-9, 5.42 1998: Geremi Gonzalez, 20 starts, 110 IP, 7-7, 5.32 1999: Terry Mulholland, 16 starts, 110 IP, 6-6, 5.15 2000: Ruben Quevedo, 15 starts, 88 IP, 3-10, 7.47 2001: Julian Taverez, 28 starts, 161.3 IP, 10-9, 4.52 2002: Carlos Zambrano, 16 starts, 108.3 IP, 4-8, 3.66 2003: Shawn Estes, 28 starts, 152.3 IP, 8-11, 5.73 2004: Mark Prior, 21 starts, 118.7 IP, 6-4, 4.02 2005: Jerome Williams, 17 starts, 106 IP, 6-8, 3.91 2006: Carlos Marmol, 77 IP, 5-7, 6.08 On average, this group managed 19 starts, 113 IP, a won-loss record of 6-8 and an ERA of 5.22. I don't know how those numbers stack up to other teams during these last 10 years, but I would think Williams in '05, Prior in '04, certainly Zambrano in '02, and maybe even Tavarez in '01 would have compared quite well.
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the most compelling argument ever made on t/c/r for a return to the 4 man rotation.

On average, this group managed 19 starts

Yep, and that leaves 12-20 starts for a sixth pitcher, because the first four will max out at around 130 starts if healthy.

Hardball TImes has a story today on the game's deepest rotations.

Cubs are not on the list.

Cubnut:
"Hardball TImes has a story today on the game’s deepest rotations. Cubs are not on the list."

Really?? Shocking!!! :)

Wade Miller should hold his own. I'm guessing a modestly sub .500 record and an ERA of 4.75.

The BULLPEN and the DEFENSE are the areas I am most worried about with this team.

"Wade Miller should hold his own. I’m guessing a modestly sub .500 record and an ERA of 4.75."

Actually for the 5th starter, win loss % is not as important as wins. even if a guy is 12 - 16, he added 12 wins to the column. To me starting staff wins is a huge stat. That is why a 20 game winner is so important. The way I look at it, 90 games should win this division if Z was to win say 18 and our 5th wins 12, that an average of 15 wins. If our starters average 15 wins that is 75, we only need 15 wins from our bully to win the division. Hence why I like the wins stat. Not as the end all be all, but its a good way of looking at a staff. Kinda like pts/game in the nba.

Thanks Cubnut. Really interesting. I know its a bit of work!

From the previous thread-
"On Friday, his (Prior) fastballs were clocked from 85-90"

He hit 90!?!?!?

Bullsh!t!

Az Phil was there, even though he didn't have a gun I'm sure he would say Prior was not any where 90.

He pitched well is what the radio said today. Hooray.

It's a step above a simulated game and two steps above throwing with the towel.

Fifth starter-

Just keep the team within striking distance, especially with this offense. I vote for Guzman just because he can throw over 90 mph.

You have betrayed me Wade!

Geremi Gonzalez was the shit until he blew his arm out.

The shit? let's not get crazy here. I would have called him promising. But even his pre-injury stats weren't that good.

Fergie, Pappas, Holtzman and Hands, can we have that rotation again please?

Actually for the 5th starter, win loss % is not as important as wins. even if a guy is 12 - 16, he added 12 wins to the column. To me starting staff wins is a huge stat. That is why a 20 game winner is so important. The way I look at it, 90 games should win this division if Z was to win say 18 and our 5th wins 12, that an average of 15 wins. If our starters average 15 wins that is 75, we only need 15 wins from our bully to win the division. Hence why I like the wins stat. Not as the end all be all, but its a good way of looking at a staff.

Actually for the 5th starter, win loss % is not as important as Losses. even if a guy is 12 - 16, he added 16 losses to the column. To me starting staff losses is a huge stat. That is why a 16 game loser is so important. The way I look at it, 73 losses should put us out of the division race if Z was to lose say 8 and our 5th loses 16, that an average of 12 lossess. If our starters average 12 that is 60, we only need 13 losses from our bully to be eliminated in the division. Hence why I like losses as a stat. Not as the end all be all, but its a good way of looking at a staff.

28 decisions is a ton for a 5th starter.

actually Cubs should be on that THT article, it very clearly states he was looking not at quality but quantity. Cubs have 4 locks and easily 4 more guys for the 5th spot and injury and that doesn't even include Mateo, Marmol or O'Malley.

HARD BALL TIMES:

I just looked at the piece - its got the Blue Jays #4 with Tomo freakin' Ohno and Victor Zambrano in the rotation!! The writer must be tight with what's that guys name? Dayn Perry?

What a bunch of shit in my opinion. We'll see in the months to come, ya'll.

I know many here are weary of the Prior obsession, but I just looked at this morning's Trib article by Dave van Dyck about the outing yesterday and once again, Rotschild is talking about Prior "pushing it."

How is one to take this except to think that Prior hasn't "pushed it" in the past, i.e., he's been timid about throwing full out?

Pat: Ronny, tell us about Ruben Quevedo.
Ronny: Well Pat, he's got decent stuff... he looks like... he really reminds me of the guy that used to pitch for us a few years ago... do you remember who that was?
Pat: That would be Ruben Quevedo, Ronny.

Er, you don't get wins without, you know, good pitching or really good hitting. Someone with a 7 ERA isn't going to pick up more wins then someone with a 4 ERA the vast majority of the time. Wins are simply a byproduct of your teams ERA and your teams AVG.

I'm starting to think that Prior could be our version of Rick Ankiel...

As for Wood, it so reminds me of Stoney's comments a few years ago-basically that he trys to throw every pitch through a brick wall. He needs to pitch-not throw.

As for the 4 man rotation, I agree with Buck Martinez who feels that the agents push for pitch limits in the minors. When the pitchers come up they don't have the arm strength to go 200 innings and then they run into injuries. The change definetely has to occur at the minor league level.

Maybe Prior could be rebuilt as a catcher? He was always decent with the bat. Should be able to throw out guys at 2nd.

Cubnut — March 17, 2007 @ 8:27 am
I know many here are weary of the Prior obsession, but I just looked at this morning’s Trib article by Dave van Dyck about the outing yesterday and once again, Rotschild is talking about Prior “pushing it.”

How is one to take this except to think that Prior hasn’t “pushed it” in the past, i.e., he’s been timid about throwing full out

=============================

CUBNUT: It appears Prior is pitching very carefully. If not scared, then with a lot of trepidation. Like he's "whistling past a graveyard" (and there IS a cemetery across the street from HoHoKam Park, so maybe that's why he only pitches in road games and at Fitch).

Basically, Prior looks like he's just waiting for his arm to fall off at the shoulder. Maybe Cubster can confirm whether this is possible.

Neal, you are right about the 28 decisions coming from one guy. But I think you should take the aggregate from all the guys who start in that fifth spot. We haven't had a regular 5th starter outside of Estes in 03.

I disagree about your losses comment though. Like I was saying, total wins is all that matters. So obviously when you total all the wins from anyone who got a decision for your team it equals the team total for wins. So if you get 12 from the guys that make that fifth start, your fine. Your losses are going to happen, but it doesn't matter who gets them. Most managers use the wins stat just as I outlined it. You say if I get x amount from the starters, I need this many from the bullpen. If you find that you need 50 wins from your bullpen in order to win 90 games, you are in big trouble. But if you make your rotation so they can account for 70 - 80 wins, you are going to have a great year.

Excuse me I should have said Estes in 03 and Tavares in 01.

What a bunch of shit in my opinion. We’ll see in the months to come, ya’ll.

As I noted, he clearly states that he ignored the quality of the 5-man rotation and looked at the quantity/quality of those who would fill-in if injuries or ineffectiveness set in.

I think the Cubs still deserved at least an honorable mention but don't confuse that list with the "best" rotations in basbell, it's clearly a piece on the "deepest" rotations.

And the writer is a pretty sharp fella for a Brewers fan. :)

Yeah the pitching depth is a myth. The Cub's are having trouble trying to find someone to be the 5th starter. So one or two concurrent injuries brings up, who? O'Malley? Mateo? '06 anyone? The difference this year is the 1-4 starters are much stronger. And the offense is stronger, but the team is still VERY susceptible to pitching injuries.

Cubs likely SP depth chart to start the year:
Top 4
Miller
Guzman
Marshall
Prior
Neil Cotts
O'Malley/Mateo/Marmol

Rynox:
"Yeah the pitching depth is a myth. The Cub’s are having trouble trying to find someone to be the 5th starter."

Agreed...

Last year some people were saying how the deep the starting staff was, but quantity does not equal quality.

I really dislike the caveat, 'but if there's injuries, then.....' because how many teams can afford any number of serious iinjuries. Can Houston afford to lose Oswalt? St. Louis, Pujols or Carpenter? etc., etc. Hendry deserves some credit this year for getting a pitching rotation fairly solid 1-4 and depth on the bench and versatility (DeRosa). It's the first team in 3 years that isn't banking on Prior/Wood.

Again, ask yourselves: Who in the NL Central scares you? Which team? Are any of them 10 games better than the potential talent of the Cubs today?

90 Wins should take the NL Central and that's all the Cubs have to do is beat out 5 other teams to make the playoffs (and 3 of them are Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee).

I honestly believe we can lose some of the angst, guys, over the Cubs chances in 2007.

Actually Jeremi Gonzalez, with a J

RC, he changed the spelling of his name since he left the Cubs.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gonzaje01...

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