Gameday Open Thread / Rockies @ Cubs

Mark Prior velocity watch vs. Aaron Cook. Snooze. - In other news, the Cubs and Zambrano are still talking about an extension, the Sun-Times has sources saying negotiations center around a five-year deal in the $75 to $85 million range (that includes his $12.4 million contract from this year, so essentially a four-year extension). - The same article says that former top prospect and current reclamation project Matt Harrington has been released - we hardly knew ye. Former #1 pick Bobby Brownlie has also been released. - Lou is threatening to send Michael Wuertz down to Iowa to build up some arm strength and seems to really be pushing for an 11-man staff to get Angel Pagan on the team.
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Comments

What is Cotts for again?

You've got to be patient with Cotts, he's learning on the job how to eat the krispy kreme's Glendon left behind. It's a tough job and somebody's got to do it. Those are big size 46 waisted pants he's got to fill.

(sorry, ...krispy kremes) although I've known a few donuts that were possessive...

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/powerRankings

Dayn Perry spends the offseason trashing the Cubs every which way to Sunday and then ranks them as the best NL Central team...beauty.

Perry's rankings are pretty much just based on run differential. What I wonder is how the Cubs jumped 4 spots before the season even begins. Did we have some suprising ST performance I am unaware of?

Man, just noticed how much Josh Hamilton is ripping it up (.403/.465/.565 in 62 AB's). Of course, it is just ST. But it looks like he will make the team as a 4th OF. Didn't we get him in the Rule V draft and then basically give him away?

We sold him in a pre-arranged deal with the Reds who moved up because they thought the Phils and one other team(I can't remember who) might pick him before they had a chance. He was never on the Cubs radar.

They paid us to pick him for them essentially.

t was more of hendry doing a little fund raising so the reds could get hamilton. it was a quick deal turning him around...most likely set up before the draft even started.

C.C. Sabathia hurts arm from line drive...

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...

Well, when it comes to the Cubs this year, Dayn Perry has come down firmly on all sides of the issue. How he can hold so many cognitively dissident ideas in his head without blowing gaskets is a great mystery.

A while back he listed a whole bunch of stuff, most of which he said had to happen if the Cubs were going to get into the playoffs.

Mark Prior must pitch 200 innings
Soriano cannot be allowed to bat leadoff man
Jones must be platooned
Kerry Wood should be handed the closer job

It doesn't look good for any of that to happen Dayn. Knock! Knock! Knock! Dayn, you home? Hello?

When the Cubs were looking for a #2 or #3 starter this off season, I thought they should have tried to swing a trade for Cook... Pie for Cook, perhaps, since the Rox needed a CF. Cook would have done well with the Wrigley infield... plus he'd keep a lot of plays away from the outfielders.

I believe that this crew (Sutcliffe, Dusty, whatshisname doing play by play) will be the Monday Night ESPN crew.

this means may 14 at the mets he could be broadcasting the cubs for those of us who don't live in chicago.

it's also possible of course that he'll be doing opening day at the reds on the deuce......oh man, what a way to ruin my opening day that would be.....

no breaks for Sabathia, maybe he'll miss a start at most.

Adam Miller and his fantasy owners await anxiously....

it’s also possible of course that he’ll be doing opening day at the reds on the deuce……oh man, what a way to ruin my opening day that would be…..

Yeah...mute button.

Rob G.:

Dayn Perry spends the offseason trashing the Cubs every which way to Sunday and then ranks them as the best NL Central team…beauty.

There's a lot of skepticism about the Cub's out there this year, and the emotional part of me stays pessimistic, because it better prepares me for a disappointment. The pragmatic me, however, realizes '06 was incredibly freaky and given the exact same roster in '07, they'd probably do a whole lot better. Add to that the top free agent (arguably), two workhorse starting pitchers, two bona fide bench bats, a weak division, and I absolutely agree the Cub's have the NLC; Hands down.

Tell me at least Joe Morgan and Dusty will never be in the same booth at once.

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/cubs.asp?id...

Opening Day Lineup

Soriano, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, JJ, barrett, Derosa, Izturis, Z

versus Harang

I really don't care what he ranks the Cubs or how he feels about them, there's good reasons to think they'll be both good or bad. Problem I see is that he seemed to write a disproportional amount of articles about the bad moves the Cubs made and what they're doing compared to any other NL Central team and then goes and says they're the best right now. Make up your mind dude....

Can't complain about that lineup.

If Chad's dreamworld Izturis shows up, I wouldn't mind him batting 2nd, but for the short term I think Murton is the way to go.

Is it too early to start second-guessing Lou's lineups? I'd use Soriano, Murt, Lee, Ramirez, JJ, Z, Barrett, Derosa, Izturis, but that's just me. =)

Rynox why would you stack the left handed batters in Z and Jones?

I thought Murton would bat 2nd versus lefties only, but I suppose until Floyd can lollygag around the outfield and he can move JJ up there versus righties, this is more than okay.

But I imagine the 2 spot will always be in flux, shame Ryno still can't play. :)

yeah, switch Barrett with Z and I think your good to go. :)

Why does everyone over estimate Zambrano's hitting ability?

They guy has a career .212 batting average and a career 577 OPS.

if anyone can get the game, let us know when Prior hits 98 mph? Thanks.

Dave I think it was a joke.

I think we were all kidding on that one Dave....

Z's a good hitting pitcher and if we really needed an XBH late in a game, he might actually be a better choice as a pinch-hitter depending on the other options, but that would be a very rare case I would think.

Barrett -4- Leadoff

Yea... I know people were kidding on this one, but people have been vastly overrating his hitting ability all winter.

Sure... he is a good hitting pitcher, but he is still a worse hitter than any non-pitcher on the Cubs, including Cedeno or Izturis.

A much improved batting order over last season

Soriano +++ over Pierre ( whomay be hitting leadoff for LA if Furcal does go on the DL as rumored )
Murton +++ over the parade of incompetence last year
Healthy Lee+++ over Broken Lee
Aram = Aram
Jones = Jones
Barrett+++ over various #6 hitters last year, Baker batted Barrett 7th or 8th most of the time, but it seems Piniella agrees with my opinion last year, that Barrett belongs up in the order. 2006 Barrett splits based on position in batting order: OPS #5- 1.056 #6- 1.113 #7- .498 #8- .729
DeRosa++ over various Mabry types
Izturis+ over various Neifi types

CWTP Barrett batted 7th and 8th about 33 times last year. Most of the 8th was probably pinch hitting for Blanco. He got his largest share of at bats batting 3rd and 5th. He hit .366 .428 .634 batting third, btw.

IMO, offensively you have two upgrades (and pretty big ones at that) and the rest should be about even or maybe a slight downgrade or two.

Upgrade #1- Soriano in CF over Pierre
Upgrade #2- Lee at 1B over hurt Lee and fill-ins

Possible slight downgrade #1- Barrett
Possible slight downgrade #2- JJ

two errors behind prior (soriano and floyd) for a nice last confidence builder! two unearned runs in the first. prior gave up a single, a walk and a strikeout.

Not sure exactly what has happened, but it looks like 2 errors, a hit, and a walk and the Cubs are quickly down 2 - 0.

CWTP, you were looking at 2005 stats.

1ip 1h 1bb 1k...2 runs.

interesting/weird.

ah...2 errors.

Prior had men on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out ...Floyd's error was a throwing error.

Izturis = nefi types = cedeno

There fixed it

Manny,

You think Murton peaked offensively last year and Izturis won't be able to out-produce Cedeno/Neifi?

Go Fundamentals, good to see something never change!!!

Cubs were 7th worst in number of errors going into today. I guess they are trying to hit that Top 5....:)

Looks like Prior also chalked up a wild pitch.

The Real neal:
"You think Murton peaked offensively last year and Izturis won’t be able to out-produce Cedeno/Neifi?"

I don't necessarily think Murton has peaked for his career, but for 2007 I don't think he will do much better than what he did in 2006.

As for Izturis, no I don't think he will do any better than what we had at SS offensively last year.

Most pa's by batting slot last year:
#1) Juan Pierre - 736
#2) Todd Walker - 148 (Theriot - 133, Cedeno - 113, Neifi - 89)
#3) Aramis - 225
#4) Aramis - 313
#5) JJ - 246
#6) JJ - 148
#7) Murton - 169
#8) Cedeno - 319

if you're curious about Barrett, he batted everywhere but leadoff. Most AB's at the #3 spot then the 5 spot.

Lou Pinella +++++++++ Dusty Baker

"Most AB’s at the #3 spot then the 5 spot." Get that straight out of post 31?

As for Izturis, no I don’t think he will do any better than what we had at SS offensively last year.

that'll be a fun one to revisit...

yeah Real Neal, I've got nothing better to do than plagiarize stuff...

maybe, oh just maybe, I was typing out my comment while you put yours up.

what's prior's pitch count today?

Rob G.:
"that’ll be a fun one to revisit…"

I am sure we can find fun ones to revist from all of us, including you, huh? :)

There's no preview or edit feature on this blog yet, TRealNeal.

I meant what I said though, Dusty Baker mostly batted Michael Barrett 7th or 8th....

2004 - 332/453 AB's
2005 - 262/418 AB's

But I'm limited to the Baseball Cube's stats on the intranet I'm on right now and they don't have 2006's splits for Barrett --

haha, I'm sure we could. But IMO, that's pretty ridiculous since Izturis would have to play at his career lows to match the worst (or one of the worst) offensive seasons in baseball last year by Cedeno (and whatever Izturis contributed in between his trips to the DL)

where can i find stats broken down by position for each team.

i want to see what the Cubs got out of the SS position so that we can compare it to Izturis this year.

Very snarky Rob G,

Control-X, refresh, Control C - Post your comment

WTF FLoyd???

Didn't Floyd recently say that he thinks he does just fine in the outfield? I feel like I read that...

why would I waste time doing that? how often do people repeat the same thing and everyone other than your uptight ass lets it pass when it does happen.

Chill brother....

well... if floyd continues to play defense like this we shouldn't have too many concerns about murton losing at-bats.

If (by some near-miracle) Izturis has really developed some plate discipline, he could actually bring some value offensively. Hopefully the BB's he's been drawing continue after this week.

Not that I want it to happen, but it will be pretty funny if Prior throws 5 no earned runs innings today and Miller gives up like 7 in two innings tomorrow.

Going to be tough for Prior to go 5 though if the defense makes 8 errors behind him.

Rob G.:
"But IMO, that’s pretty ridiculous since Izturis would have to play at his career lows to match the worst (or one of the worst) offensive seasons in baseball last year by Cedeno (and whatever Izturis contributed in between his trips to the DL)"

I do not think Izturis will improve much from his numbers over the past 2 years (OPS of roughly .620). Cedeno was at .610 last year. So yeah we could see a very small bump at SS, but basically no improvement of any significance. I could very easily be wrong though, time will tell.

'why would I waste time doing that? '

Dunno, Schmidt 3/44, you tell me.

Izturis has had plenty of plate discpline the last 3 years, his batting average drives down his OBP numbers

Cubs SS in 2006:
246/275/324 598 OPS

61 R, 151 H, 20 2B, 4 HR, 50 RBI, 24, BB, 116 K, 7 SB, 8 CS

ESPN.com team page - > Player Stats - > As SS

Anyone got any gun readings on Prior?

Dunno, Schmidt 3/44, you tell me

Are you really comparing the two or just trying to be difficult?

Woo defense... an errorless inning!

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2006/gd.html?...

GAMEDAY says Taveras scored from first base on a two base error by Soriano in the first inning, contrary to my post that Prior had men on 2nd and 3rd.

Prior has not given up a fly ball out in the last 2 innings

I am saying you have in the past got on people for re-posting what others have already said, and now blithely don't think that same rule applies to yourself. I gave you a way (the same way I use) to keep from doing that. And you seem to be having a hissy-fit over it. I don't really care either way, was just making a joke.

"I could very easily be wrong"

In my best Jack Black voice:

You can be and ARE wrong!

Prior has 2 wild pitches?

Swings at first pitch, ball muffed by third baseman for a two base error....Apparently Hank White (ST BA .152) didn't get the memo from Lou about patience at the plate.

"Prior has 2 wild pitches? "

That must be an error in the boxscore kjk. Henry Blanco is behind the plate and it is impossible to throw a wild pitch with him back there.

furcal signs with dodgers....

zito to giants....

Any pitch speed updates?

I heard Comcast had Prior throwing the first pitch at 108.

They reported that at 9:00 am.

They reported that at 9:00 am.
---

that is down from his 116 of next week.

"If Chad’s dreamworld Izturis shows up, I wouldn’t mind him batting 2nd, but for the short term I think Murton is the way to go."

Look at it this way, who is more likely to draw a walk? Murton, right? Isn't a walk in front of a pitcher much better in the sense that AT WORST your leadoff hitter comes up first next inning? Sure a walk in front of DLee is great too, don't get me wrong, but I think Murton batting 8th can be a big bonus. Not to mention more power as to bring in any stragglers still left on base. FWIW.

so asking people to read the comments about breaking news that's been posted far more than just once and over a span far greater than 8 minutes is the same as accusing me of plagiarizing your research that you just posted.

This is the logic you're presenting?

w00t Cubs on the board 3-2

looks like Prior's done already after facing 15 batters in 3 innings

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Izturis had plenty of discipline the last 3 years. Unless Juan Pierre also has plenty of discipline.
Izturis is on pace for around 130 BB's over 700 plate appearances. Of course that won't happen, but he could be a much more productive player if some of this carries over into the season.

Chad a walk in front of a pitcher in not more valuable than a walk in front of your best hitter.

Soriano blast for the runs

Guzman now pitching

Rob G,

I am not really interested in getting in a philosphical debate with you over the duties and responsibilities of a blog commenter to make sure he doesn't make a redudant comment. Go ahead and publish the official 'Cub Reporter Policy on the allowable time limit for redundant information', I don't think I would have any trouble following it.

I also don't think it's possible to plagiarize information that is considered public domain.

alright fair enough bjs, but far more than Neifi ever has shown and what Ronny showed last year is what I was getting at.

Double switching in the 5th! The Ghost of Dusty lives on.

Isn’t a walk in front of a pitcher much better in the sense that AT WORST your leadoff hitter comes up first next inning?

What??!?!

Chad...are you serious? Are you saying that it is more valuable to have a baserunner on with the pitcher up than with Derek Lee up?

Izturis at least see a lot of pitches even if that doesn't lead to a large number of walks.

"Robr — March 28, 2007 @ 3:12 pm

Chad a walk in front of a pitcher in not more valuable than a walk in front of your best hitter."

In a sense it can be. Of course the more runners we have on in front of Lee, the better. But there is a HUGE advantage to having your leadoff hitter bat to start the inning rather than the pitcher leading off.

As well, the two hitter is there for more than just getting a hit or walk. They look to him to move a runner over into scoring position and help stay away from double plays. So, its not all about just getting on base by any means necessary.

Actually Chad,

If the assumption is that your 2nd hitter (izturis) makes an out and your 8th hitter (murton) draws a walk, that is going to have the exact same effect on the number of outs when the 9th batter comes up if your 2nd batter walked and the 8th batter made an out.

Mathmatically:
0 + 1 = 1
1 + 0 = 1

Obviously other things would come into play, but the better scenario is to have the higher OBP guy batting 2nd because as pointed out earlier, he is going to be more available for Lee and Ramirez to drive in and also he is going to get that 8th hitter more opportunities over the course of the season because he makes fewer outs.

Real Neal, you need to take a Valium and relax. Sheesh. You should be flattered that you had the same response as Rob G.

Redundant comments happen all the time. Just look at Chad. He redundants himselfs all the times.

The Cub offense will be better. This team should be able to score runs. The positive or negative fortunes of this team will come down to pitching. Pitching is always king. Is Zambrano, Lilly and three question marks a good enough rotation? Can Dumpster do a tolerable enough job as closer? Can the other relievers outside of the stellar Howry hold up their end of the bargain? Personally, I think that is a lot to ask for. IMO, the Cub pitching staff generally sucks. Hopefully Miller comes threw and one or two arms in the bullpen are a revelation. Hopefully also Hill can become a decent and reliable starting pitcher.

(Chad - that was a funny...:)

the two hitter is there for more than just getting a hit or walk. They look to him to move a runner over into scoring position and help stay away from double plays. So, its not all about just getting on base by any means necessary

in addition, on a Piniella team, the two hitter's job with Soriano on base is to take go deep enough into the count to give Alfonso opportunities to steal

Chad, we all saw the damage of Neifi and rest of the worst top of the order talent in baseball in 2005 can do to a team.

Has 2005 been forgotten already? It took Lee hitting .378 to keep pace with Pujols in RBI when he was hitting .337.

When Lee's average settled down in the 2nd half and he hit .287, he only had 35 RBI in the second half compared to 72 in the first half.

Pujols hit .320 drove in 48 RBI, but he was banged up a bit and missed time in the 2nd half that season.

#2 hole hitter shouldn't be a guy with a career .295 OBP, and that is exactly what Izturis is. Hell our banged up offense last season didn't start purring until Theriot was burning it up in the #2 slot to end the year. Alot of times you can nuter your offense by putting your shittiest player in that slot.

Thanks for the advise Michaleweasleo. I am printing up those comments now to paste all over the wall of my living room.

Does having more hitters with higher BA's guarantee that the Cubs offense will be better? I think that less K's, GIDP's, and timely hitting would be just as beneficial if not more so.

Neal, that is not a fair assesment. Baseball does not work this way. This all a Sabreite can see. Math occurs in a vacuum where 1+1 always equals 2. In your scenario it appears the same but its not. What if DLee hits into a double play? Then the guy in front of him getting that walk does not bring up the same scenario. There is no direct effect. If so, then you are saying that a lead off walk in the 4th is the reason the 8th spot came up to bat with one out instead of two.

Michaelweaselo:

I knew it was a joke. Its all good. I am not repetitive. I am not redundant.

Bryan,

In general, the best way to get fewer GIDP's is to strike out more. Timely hitting for most players is just luck, only a few players consistently display that skill. I for one think it's more of a condemnation of their mental stanima and concentration abilities than something to consider a good trait.

The Cubs offense had three main problems last year, timely hitting - which is probably just bad luck, lack of power which should be addressed by having Lee, Floyd, Soriano and to a lesser degree Barrett around, and lack of OBP, which they didn't really address.

Players who exhibit bat control enough to make productive outs, or good use of hit and run is great to have, but if it comes to one or the other, most baseball analysts will say 'give me the 80 BB, 110 K slugger, please'.

Chad,

I said 'Obviously other things would come into play', what do you think I was talking about?

But baseball does work that way. I realize that you refuse to understand it, but it does. For Lee's career he has hit twice as many HR's as he has had GIDP's so the odds are roughly twice as good as the Cubs having an extra run, and an extra PA than in your 'but, but, but' scenario.

Back to the game,

Lee and Aram, back to back home runs tie the game at 4 apiece after six .

So is there no such thing as a talented clutch hitter? Or is that hitter just a very lucky hitter? Last year, David Ortiz must have been very lucky for all of his late-game heroics.
In terms of run-producing sluggers, I always saw Sammy as a guy who hit an awful lot of solo-HR. If runners had been on base ahead of him, those HR might have meant more. So was it his bad luck that there were no runners on in front of him, or was it lack of production from batters in front of him?

At some point, luck runs out, and all you've got is talent (or nothing left at all). The Cubs, like me, hardly ever get lucky. I think the talent is there this year, but is it talent in the right areas?

Guzman still out there in his third inning of relief.....looks like Lou may be keeping him stretched out... a wise man.

The Rocks have scrubbed their lineup and Guzman is not K'ing anyone again.

Wuertz didn't allow anyone to get the ball in play against him, other than a sac bunt, 2K's and BB in his one inning against the bottom and leadoff hitter.

Bryan,

You can go to baseballreference.com where it breaks down HR's for each player (solo, vs men on etc)- As I recall, none of the big sluggers of today particularly stood out as being better at hitting theirs with guys on base.

If a guy is a .300 hitter, but hits .335 for his career with RISP, then he is like a .280 hitter with the bases empty. If he consistnently shows the ability to hit .335 in RISP, he should be able to approximate that with the bases empty, like .320 or something. To me it says the guy is not living up to his potential. To others they say he is 'clutch', it depends on how you look at it. So there is a thing as a clutch hitter, I just don't think it's a good thing.

Neal:
"But baseball does work that way. I realize that you refuse to understand it, but it does."

No it doesn't. No situation is ever the same. You cannot recreate anything and past performance will NEVER EVER EVER dictate the outcome. UNLIKE MATH. This is not math. It's art. It's subjective and is constantly changing. A hit is not a hit. An out is not an out. There is more to baseball than a boxscore. A boxscore is history not the future. YOu are the one unwilling to see that.

"A hit is not a hit. An out is not an out."

Should read as:

"A hit is not just a hit. An out is not just an out"

So Chad,

Let me get this right. You think that the D-Rays have just a good a chance to win the World Series as the Yankees?

In the Cubs 7th, Alfonso Soriano singled, then Ronny Cedeno walked! Piniella really had to love Cedeno's AB. Soriano then stole 3rd

That was the end of the good stuff. No runs.

Sorry to butt in, but the Yanks simply have better players than the DBacks. You don't need stats to see that.

Guzman's seventh gets a called third strike on All-Star Matt Miller than gets the Hall of Fame tandem John Herrera and Geronimo Gil on flies to the outfield. 3 innings 1 er 1 BB 1 K for Guzman. Not too great but I am sure by contrast it will look good when Cotts hits the showers.

Rynox,

How did you determine that, if not with stats? And before you say 'watch them play' keep in mind that stats are just a record of what they did when they played. If you're saying you can't look at historical stats to predect an outcome, you may as well say you can't look at anything to predict an outcome.

If you look at position players, probably the top athletes on the two teams are both Rays. If you watch Giambi take a walk and waddle down to first, you're not going to be overwhelmed with his baseball skill. When you realize that he waddles down to first on a walk rouglhy once a game, then you'll come to understand one of the reasons the Yankees score so many runs.

Cotts with an IP, 1 BB, 1 K

You have a point, but you can watch Jeter strike out and watch BJ Upton hit a home run and still see that Jeter is a better hitter. And for the record I think stats do play a small role in the valuation of a ball club, but mostly you just have to "know" the players and most importantly how they help the team on a day-to-day basis.

I just wanted to call you out on the Yanks/DRays thing because it looked like trickery to me :)

Re: Why the Yankees have won and will continue to win, and you don't even have to go watch them. You just have to "believe" that they will. Maybe the Drays just don't have enough fans "believing" in them to win ballgames.

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/

Read the "Apologies in Advance" blog.

chad...i still don't get how it would be better to have a high OBP guy in the 8 hole than the second hole.

can you please elaborate/clarify this?

Dempster 1IP, 1BB 1K
Cubs have a chance to win or "run out of pitchers"

Who is Chirinos? Who struck out batting for Cotts in the 8th?

Rynox,

|I just wanted to call you out on the Yanks/DRays thing because it looked like trickery to me|

Well when dealing with Chad, the Socratic method is probably the best approach. He's sort of like a Encino man, but he got frozen in time in 1986 after he finished his first season of Rotissere baseball. But the reason that we all think the Yankees are going to finish ahead of the Rays is because their hitters have such great track records and their pitchers' names are more well known to us. No one has time to watch even 1/10th of the MLB baseball games, so anyone who says they don't use historical stats to evaluate a player or make predictions to the outcome of a season is plain old full of it.

Chad uses BA, HR, and RBI's to evaluate players. Since these aren't considered "SABR" stats, they are ok to use to evaluate players apparently....or not....or....I don't know, he rarely makes any sense.....

An awful of first pitch contact in this game. Can this be right?--- the Cub ninth....

Pitch 1 Blanco singles
Pitch 1 Murton sacrifice bunt, Blanco to 2b
Pitch 1 Soriano GO
Pitch 1 Cedeno singles, Blanco to 3b
Pitch 1 Lee hits into FC, force out at 2b

The gameday running pitch stats are erroneous. They are not up to speed on that yet.

"An awful lot of first pitch contact..."
---

Sounds like a true Cubs team, at least the hacking at the first pitch part...

Lee ended the inning with a groundout. He sucks, why is he still on the roster?

Have any of the relievers besides Howry done their two -inning stint yet? Piniella says that's a condition of making the roster, and they are running out of time.

Federico Baez, 25, (AAA), is supposed to be pitching the 10th inning for the Cubs. In the low minors he was used as a middle reliever, but lately he's gotten a number of starts.

Baez squeaks out of the 10th... Cubs get one more shot at the W

Well, Baez got thru the ninth okay but not without another 3 base thingie happening in Soriano's CF.

Have no idea if it was a legit triple, but triples past a fleet-footed power arm like Alfonso should be less common, methinks.

So the Cubs seem to have 4 errors so far. 2 by Floyd and another one by Theriot. Sucky.

If someone already mentioned this, please don't get mad...I followed the formula:
"Control-X, refresh, Control C - Post your comment"

Every Cubs pitcher allowed a BB today for a total of 7 free passes

Did they call the game?

I actually lied, I don't use Control-X, I use Control C and Control V.

"Let me get this right. You think that the D-Rays have just a good a chance to win the World Series as the Yankees?"

" He’s sort of like a Encino man, but he got frozen in time in 1986 after he finished his first season of Rotissere baseball."

Yes. I also believe that the earth revolves around the sun and that the world is flat.

Sorry boys, I'll change my beliefs once the actual sport of baseball changes its beliefs. You know, when they give awards for highest OBP or OPS. You know. Or when people start to care about a player going for the best K/BB ratio in league history. Until then, I side with the people who actually fill out lineup cards.

"chad…i still don’t get how it would be better to have a high OBP guy in the 8 hole than the second hole.

can you please elaborate/clarify this?"

I stated that a guy who is more likely to take a walk is very valuable in the 8th hole. This way, he takes a walk and gets the pitcher up to bat. This turns over your lineup and at minimum gets your leadoff hitter up there to start the next inning. If you don't get that 8th spot guy on base you will wind up leading off with your pitcher. That is not a good spot to be in. Whereas, if your #2 guy doesn't get on, you will leadoff with your #3 hitter. Sure, as I stated, the more runners on base for your best hitter, the better. But given the choice, isn't better to leadoff an inning with your #1 or #3 rather than your pitcher?

yep, Rob, game ended in a tie after ten

FireJoeMorgan has some pretty good write-ups today. Should take a look. Steve Phillips is a complete moron, and so is Murray Chass, but we all knew this already.

I couldn't figure out if they were talking about Murray Chass or Chad in this paragraph:

"See, being afraid of numbers and resistant to change and unwilling to learn new things doesn't just make you look like a sad, anachronistic old kook. It can actually hurt your writing in concrete, demonstrable ways. It can make you assert things that with an ounce of research can be shown to be patently ridiculous"

www.firejoemorgan.com

Chad, you realize that scenario on average comes up once a game, right?

Sidebar: Like last year when the Cubs handed Freddie Bynum the 25th man spot after Theriot had won it in ST, the Baltimore Orioles are desperate to do the same thing. The other day they just about made it official.

And Bynum is making them look like morons. Today he was starting in RF and went 0/4, dropping his BA to .130 .

It was ever thus.

"Sorry boys, I’ll change my beliefs once the actual sport of baseball changes its beliefs."

The actual sport of baseball changed it's beliefs years ago, Chad. There are a few people who still don't get it, but the majority of the successful franchises - Yankees, A's, Cards, Red Sox all do. The Jim Hendrys of the world are sort of like the Polish calvary in WW2, riding out to confront the Nazi tanks. I guess that makes you like one of their stableboys.

Chad--obviously your rationale for an "8th slot batter" is for the NL and not the AL.

Other than that, you'er right. Managers do think this way.

I umpire a lot of high school and small college baseball and softball in Iowa. I've had managers come out to make a switch, and they'll ask me to tighten down the strike zone becuase they want that walk in the 8th slot. Of course, being the ((12 pack Coors Light)) objective umpire ((12 pack Coors Light)) that I am ((12 pack Coors Light)) I couldn't alter my ((12 pack Coors Light) strike zone.

It's all about playing the odds*****waaaaaa heyyyyyy******* does that mean statistics?***** to set up the NEXT 2-3 innings to get the best FLOW of your BEST offensive players together.

It's sound logic, it just won't show in any statistics that I know of.

Joey

Control-X, refresh, Control C
----
pffft .... windows ...

the only thing the yanks have 'believed in' since the early 00's is spending hand over fist nearly doubling the payroll of their closest competitor and staying steady near 3x the league average in spending.

when a superstar can be had for 10-20m spending 80+ more than your closest competitor isnt just top spender and 2nd place spender...its a different world.

cubs might look nice with dlee, soriano, and aram...but imagine the impact of having 3 more of those guys and another 20-30m to go out and add 1-2 more superstars.

"Yankees, A’s, Cards, Red Sox all do."

No they don't. Just the A's. Sabermetric baseball is not a way to evaluate the best players in baseball. It's a way of evaluating players who may be better than others but don't show it in traditional stats. You think they cared what ARod's OBP was? No. You think they fretted over Gary Sheffield's K/BB rate? No. You think they were looking at Johnny Damon's OPS? No.

Baseball has not changed and managers still manage the same way. That's why pitchers still bat 9th. Bill James will tell you that lineup construction doesn't matter. Then why not bat him first?

HAHAHAHA

I nominate #142 for Post of the Year

wow....just wow.....

Sabermetric baseball is not a way to evaluate the best players in baseball. It’s a way of evaluating players who may be better than others but don’t show it in traditional stats.

Moneyball does not equal sabermetrics.

That's not exactly true Rob. If every player was Albert Puljos and every pitcher Johan Santana, Sabremetrics would never have been created. It wasn't created for superstars.

According to WGN, Prior was optioned to AAA.

Moneyball does not equal sabermetrics.

Thank you Rob.

Chad... The Red Sox and the Yankees both very much buy into the virtues of things like OPS and OBP.

Why do you think the Red Sox like Youkilis so much?

Sure... you can say that both the Red Sox and the Yanks buy stars - that is true. But that does not mean they don't value certain non-traditional stats.

If every player was Albert Puljos and every pitcher Johan Santana, Sabremetrics would never have been created.

Are you serious? Sabermetrics were created long before Billy Beane came around with his money ball philosophy.

Bill James has been talking about the value of players based on advanced statistics for years. Sabermetrics were created as a way to value players beyond the traditional stats. And they do a pretty good (though not perfect) job at that.

~head explodes~

This discussion is analogous to standing in cold water at nudist camp. None of us can get out of it!!!

Get it??? Afraid to??? Embarassed to look stupid.

Errrr....ahem.

Is there ANYTHING else to argue about besides statistics???

Crunch--quickly---say something to irritate me and I'll snap back. That always works to put a nail in the discussion.

at least the argument changes each time! :)

this time chad thinks that moneyball is the same as sabermetrics, and that sabermetrics only exist to evaluate crappy players.

we just need this season to start...

Dave,

Do you need Sabremetrics to tell you who the top 10 offensive players are in tha game????

I'd venture the guess NO.

Would Sabremetrics have predicted Ryan Howard's year last year?

I'd venture a guess no.

Has Sabremetrics predicted Howard's shitty spring?

No.

Statistics are not meant to predict extremes. They're designed to predict the MASSES......the standard, with normal deviations from standard. The accuracy of predictions further away from average/standard goes down exponentially. Some of you had to take a STATS course in college...remember the Bell Curve????

Somebody on here has to be an actuary and back this up.

If I'm right......then by default Chad is right, meaning Sabremetrics is designed to more accurately predict AVERAGE, to slightly above and slightly below average.

WOW.....My mind just has a major mind F**K right there.

whatever, this conversation gets more boring each time, new post up, final 25 are set.

Did I ever say you needed sabermetrics to tell who were the best offensive players last year?

No... not at all. I simply said they help us better understand and evaluate players in different ways.

And yes, I took stats in college, and then took two grad classes on stats. So I understand them quite well and their purpose. And you are right - they do predict the "masses," not the extremes. But there are different ways of using stats. In the sabermetric sense, they are not mean to predict success (at least with stats like OBP, OPS, WARP, etc). Instead they are meant to evaluate previous success.

Dave, why evaluate previous success if you're not trying to gain a barometer on future success?

For example, who gives a shit what Sammy Sosa's PREVIOUS success was? He may not even make the ASB on the big club. Yet, sabremetrically (new word), he should be a top offensive threat. (bad example, I grant you.)

My point is this. LOGIC prevails...not statistics, and I THINK that's where Chad is coming from. Used as TOOL, they're slightly helpful.....used as the basis of your entire team, like Billy Beane, and you create a slightly better than average team.

I'm done. Rob G spanked me......we're moving on.

HEY, did everybody know that Mark Prior was optioned to AAA? That would be Des Moines......come on in....1st beers are on me. Tickets will go fast.

Joey

seriously... i slip away for a few months. i come back. same old arguments ...

i love you guys!

"Are you serious? Sabermetrics were created long before Billy Beane came around with his money ball philosophy."

I never made this claim. Not even close.

"this time chad thinks that moneyball is the same as sabermetrics, and that sabermetrics only exist to evaluate crappy players."

Never said this either. Not even close.

"If I’m right……then by default Chad is right, meaning Sabremetrics is designed to more accurately predict AVERAGE, to slightly above and slightly below average."

This is basically what I'm saying. You guys don't know why sabremetrics was invented. It was invented to see the actual effects on a game of a player. No one needs Sabrestats to know that Reggie Jackson was a great player. They invented Sabrestats to know if Chris Chamblis (et. al) would be as good on a last place team. Everybody knew Reggie would hit homers everywhere he went. Sabremetrics was NEVER intended to rate supertars, as there was no need.

can someone throw up a link to match.com for The Real Neal? Thanks

Here's one for you, Vince.

www.joke-of-the-day.com

[...] Original post by Rob G. [...]

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