Recipes For Success
Recently, Virginia Phil has been poring over minor league stats at The Baseball Cube, trying to build an argument that Felix Pie is as ready for the majors as he'll ever be. In the process, he has turned up some numbers that illustrate how other teams have managed to bring some of their brightest prospects to the big leagues and done so successfully. This is a cooking article. It's about "seasoning," about how long various promising players are left to marinate in the minors before getting called up to the majors. I think the data itself is interesting, and I think I've found a visually effective way to present it. The data is too sketchy, I think, to support any conclusions or even to formulate the right questions about how players should be evaluated before being summoned to the parent club. What follows is a list of nearly two dozen players who, in the last ten years, won starting jobs in the majors while in their early twenties and seem to be enjoying successful careers. (Also included are a few players with Cub ties whose long-term success is yet to be determined.) I am interested in the minor league careers of these players, which I have summarized in a unique way. Take the Red Sox' recently anointed starting second baseman: Dustin Pedroia (23) 308/392/454 (21hr) 270: 011122222223333333333333333
Here's the code: the 23 in parentheses is his age when he made the big club (and not just for a late season call-up). 308/392/454 are his cumulative minor league numbers taken directly from the bottom line of the offensive stats on The Baseball Cube. I also tack on the number of minor-league home runs (21). 270 is total minor league games. In the string of numbers that follows, each digit represents ten games and the level at which the player participated. To be specific, 3 means AAA, 2 means AA, 1 means A+ (High A). Everything below High A is represented by a 0. College seasons are not represented here, as Baseball Cube does not include them in the cumulative stats. I've done some rounding off, so, for example, Albert Pujols' three-game cup of coffee at AAA doesn't appear. Sometimes a player may go back to the minors for a brief rehab assignment, and those numbers get thrown into the Baseball Cube stats, but I try to ignore those stints in my variable-length digit strings.
The list:
- Albert Pujols (21) 314/378/543 (19hr) 133: 0000000000011
- Rafael Furcal (23) 310/386/388 (3hr) 245: 000000000000000000001111
- Matt Murton (23) 309/380/451 (24hr) 266: 000001111111111111222222223
- Dustin Pedroia (23) 308/392/454 (21hr) 270: 011122222223333333333333333
- Bobby Crosby (24) 302/381/480 (32hr) 276: 111111112222223333333333333
- Joe Mauer (21) 332/407/426 (9hr) 284: 0000000000000011111122222223
- Rocco Baldelli (21) 282/329/434 (30hr) 302: 00000000000000000111111112233
- Brian McCann (21) 275/334/462 (36hr) 305: 000000000000001111111111122222
- Andruw Jones (19) 302/389/543 (62hr) 318: 00000000000000000000111111122223
- Corey Patterson (22) 282/338/499 (54hr) 343: 00000000000222222222222333333333[33]
- Carlos Beltran (23) 268/347/436 (42hr) 353: 0000000000001111111111111111122222
- Scott Rolen (21) 303/389/477 (38hr) 355: 000000000000000011111112222222233333
- Alfonso Soriano (24) 270/312/430 (38hr) 359: 111111111111112222222223333333333333
- Jeff Francoeur (21) 282/330/478 (53hr) 363: 000000000000000001111111112222222222
- Jason Bay (24) 301/395/487 (54hr) 381: 00000000000011111111111222222333333333
- Miguel Tejada (21) 275/358/475 (70hr) 406: 000000000000000111111111112222222222222
- Carl Crawford (21) 295/336/400 (17hr) 412: 000000000000000000002222222222222333333333
- Felix Pie (22?) 294/353/459 (42hr) 487: 0000000000000000001111111111122222233333333333333
- Grady Sizemore (22) 289/377/411 (27hr) 529: 000000000000000000111111111111122222222222223333333333
- Alex Rios (23) 293/335/401 (20hr) 556: 00000000000000000000000000011111111111222222222222233333
- Vernon Wells (22) 289/350/464 (67hr) 563: 00000000000000000000111111122233333333333333333333333333
- Derrek Lee (21) 291/363/483 (100) 640: 0111111111111111111111111111222222222222223333333333333[333333333]
Notes and comments:
- Matt Murton had a very brief minor league career, which may explain why he hit a wall around June of his rookie year and why he really scuffled for a few weeks. He fought his way through that period and finished strong. To me, this illustrates the importance of getting prospects up and playing, so that by the next year, they can cease being rookies and can begin to carry themselves with the confidence of major leaguers.
- Soriano began his career by playing in Japan for two years, after which the Yankees sent him to rookie league for five games before promoting him to AA, so I somewhat arbitrarily categorized the Japan games as High A ("1").
- You'll notice bracketed digits at the end of both Corey Patterson's and Derrek Lee's strings. These signify the fact that the players were demoted to Triple-A after performing as starters in the majors. Patterson and Lee are the only two players on the list with this experience. Lee had 454 at-bats with the Marlins in 1998, hitting 17 home runs and knocking in 74 runs, but his 233/318/414 line didn't go over too well, apparently, and he was shipped to Calgary (PCL) for 89 games in '99. Patterson came up mid-year 2001--never mind a September call-up in 2000--and four years later(!), he was sent to Iowa for 26 games. Lee is a classic late bloomer. He's also the classic five-tooler whose defensive skills keep him in a starting role year after year until he gets the hitting thing figured out. His breakout year, 2005, when he hit .335 after a career average in the .270s, came at age 29. Patterson is 27 now. He's toolsy and seems to still have a starting job. So you begin to wonder: can we take the comparison with Lee a step further and look for an imminent breakout year from Patterson as someone at TCR--Real Neal, I think, or maybe Vorare--recently predicted? Patterson's best year was probably 2004 when, at age 25, he hit 266/320/452 in 631 AB with 24 HR, 32 SB, 45 BB and 168 SO. The numbers are decent except for the walks vs. strikeouts, and the low OBP--thanks largely to how infrequently he walked. Lee has some whiff in his resume, also. In 2002, at 26, he struck out a Patterson-like 164 times. In Memphis (AA) at age 20, Lee fanned 170 times in 500 at bats, or once every 2.94 AB! Though he swung and missed often, Lee could also keep the bat on his shoulder, and he drew 98 walks to go with the 164 strikeouts. Since 2002, Lee has reduced his strikeouts while holding the BBs fairly steady, and his OBP has remained in the high .300s and low .400s. All you can say now about Patterson is what they've always said: it's in his head and in his hands. It's hard to see what the Cubs could have done differently, or how "rushing" versus slower seasoning are relevant to his case.
- Top prospects drive a wedge in front of them that pushes incumbents out of the way. Rolen: Todd Zeile traded by Phillies to free up third base. Beltran: Johnny Damon moved to a corner outfield spot, then traded a year later. Wells: Jose Cruz, Jr. moved to a corner spot and then traded. Pujols: came up in 2001 and played 3rd base, which had opened up the year before when Fernando Tatis was traded. Tatis may not seem like much of an obstacle, but in '99 he hit 34 HRs and drove in 107 runs. Bay: two-time All Star Brian Giles traded for leftfield replacement Bay (and Oliver Perez). Baldelli: Randy Winn traded to open up centerfield. Crosby: A's saw him coming and let Miguel Tejada walk. Pedroia: Red Sox let Mark Loretta go to open a spot for the rookie. Pie: Juan Pierre not offered a contract by the Cubs to keep centerfield open (at least temporarily).
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