Game 20 Thread / Brewers @ Cubs (2 of 3)

Game Chat Jeff Suppan vs. Rich Hill Lineups:
Weeks 2b Soriano LF
Hardy SS Pie CF
Fielder 1B Lee 1B
Hall CF Ramirez 3B
Mench LF Barrett C
Hart RF Jones RF
Miller C Derosa 2B
Graffanino 3B Izturis SS
Suppan P Hill P
Rich Hill has a 17 inning scoreless streak going and leads the league in ERA among "qualified" starters.
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Comments

No Theriot in the line up again.

Mind bogling.

Maybe Dusty wasn't that bad.

I like the lineup.

Does that make me craaaazzzzy? Does that make me craaaaaazzzzzy? Does that make me craaaaaazzzzzy? Prrooooobbbabbblyyyyy...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070...

If Sosa hits a homer in Cleveland he'll set the mark for most stadiums anyone has hit homers in...44 to be exact.

I like the line up with the exception that Theriot and his .340 batting average is set to rot on the bench.

In favor of Izturis. May 9 year old son refers to him as "The Mighty Cesar Izturis".

Larry, would your son like to manage a baseball team?

I like this lineup as well. Just think, Cedeno didn't sneak his way into the lineup. That's a good thing.

I mean, it's hard to keep DeRosa's power out of there. He is slugging .542 after all.

You'll counter that by saying it doesn't do any good if we're not getting anybody on base, but then I'll say that you're the one who wanted Pie and his .231 OBP to stay, anyway. So there.

Oddly enough, I predict a ton of offense on both sides tonight. Cub's winning approximately 9-7.

Brews 12 - 7
Cubs 7 - 12
Umps 6 - 13

:(

no Riot is very disappointing...

"Larry, would your son like to manage a baseball team?"

Funny.

I put him to bed the other night before the end of a Cubs game. The Cubs added a few he didn't see so he asked me the next morning how they scored. When I told him Cedeno had homered he started laughing. After he kept laughing I asked him what was so funny and said the Cardinals pitcher must be horrible.

That's one astute 9 year old.

That was a fine piece of hitting by Izturis in the second.

/hate

holy crap is izturis bad.

seriously, what does jones+ pitching prospect get us in terms of SS? i know it's early and most teams aren't interested in trades but this is getting absurd to have this many good OFs and such a terrible SS. jones is cheap enough that most teams should find him interesting.

anyone want to throw out a random list of SS that might be available? most of them other than adam everett and cristian guzman are better than the pile of poo the cubs send out there to bat 8th every night.

rich hill!

"anyone want to throw out a random list of SS that might be available?"

the answer to that is the problem with many teams getting a SS the past many years.

the ones that can hit that are available cant field...the ones that can field are low-no hit guys...

draft, develop, pay out your ass money you would give 1/2 of if the person was an OF'r...etc.

Obviously A-Rod's name would pop up. Tejada? Definetly would take more than JJ and a prospect though.

Maybe if the Pirates are far enough out, which they will be, they'll trade Jack Wilson away for cheap. Michael Young's name might pop up but his availability probably depends on the status of the Rangers.

any reason given as to why Pie switched to #20?

Yea..... when in doubt, rip off the Pirates.

Green Lantern:
"anyone want to throw out a random list of SS that might be available?"

Furcal? Oh nevermind...

20 scoreless innings was a nice run...Good job Hill..It had to come to an end sometime. Just start up another run...

the old sacrifice GIDP. those are awesome.

can we for once get a hit with RISP, please? back to back lead off doubles and neither players moves from 2nd....fantastic....

jock jones misses breaking pitches by a greater margin than 90% of the pitchers in MLB. he should never see a fastball above his toes or below his neck. hopeless.

I would love to throw in a random list of SS's but for now this list will have to suffice:

The Cubs will lose when they:

1. Fall Behind.
2. It is close.
3. When they leave 900 men on base with no out.

Ok... obviously things will turn around and I am not sure a trade will fix anything though there are certain moves that are imminent. But, this doesn't soothe any of my frustration as winning in the Lou Pa era is going to be a bit tougher than just taking the field and winning ball games.

A major frustration:

Out of the cubs first 28 games 24 of them are against NL central opponents. The Cubs MUST learn to play in the cold, in the wind, at home, in close games, and in extra innings if they even expect to have a hope come May. There is nothing like coming out of the first month 8 or 9 games out of first place and if nothing changes this could be very likely.

This team is going all 2006 on us. If they lose this game (4-0 in the 7th, so yeah they will), they will have lost 6 of their last 8 and 11 of their last 15.

This is so painful. Someone needs to light a fire under these guys.

They said that Pie had 20 in the minors, but was too polite to ask for it during spring training, so they gave him 17.

That does it, I'm a Expos fan until further notice.

206 combined at-bats from your corner OFs and 1B and ZERO home runs. awesome.

Don't forget the first baseman Eli.

im all for this becoming the best damn montreal expos blog of 2007 if the cubs continue like this...

blech.

the lee/soriano/jones homerless streak is absurd. the cubs scoreless streak is absurd. getting good pitching and being 7-13 is absurd. the hitting after the 7th listed in the previous post is absurd.

oh btw, ben sheets tomorrow. good luck.

POSEY SUCKS

Pie wanted number 20 so we could remember the last CF that wore #20, Korey...

Before that, I remember Jerome Walton wearing #20 in CF.

Does Ryan Theriot use the manager's bathroom to take giant smelly dumps in?

I hate this. This is why I looked forward to Opening Day for so long?

Low water mark...7-13

It is still early though...:)

Can we all finally jump on the "Fire Hendry" bandwagon??

O.K.

I'm on it, MANNY.

He is a true Dick-head.

I'd like to start looking at 2008. There are THREE shortstops going to FA including Juan Uribe. NOT including A-Rod.

We NEED a SS who can hit.

Anyone see the Cubs post game press conference? Did Lou take questions tonight or did he duck the press again? It is a matter of time until he explodes and at this point that might be the most entertaining part of the season.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...

Lou says it's likely that tonight's lineup will be the everyday lineup for the most part. (I suppose against righties)

Lou P--

One question -- what the hell were you thinking when you agreed to take this job?

3-9 at home -- that's actually fairly hard to do. Sheets tomorrow, then 3 in St. Louis -- Cubs will likely be 7 or more games out at the end of April. In the worst division in baseball. Absolutely hilarious.

CUBS SUCK
They simply appear to have no heart. No leadership. I will blame hendry for this cause Z is nuts, Lee is polite, Aram is too quiet, Fonz is too new, some are too old, some too young. Maybe Barrett, but we all know he sucks too.

We need a Leader

AND THE CUBS TICKET OFFICE SENDS ME THIS:

April 24, 2007

Dear Daily Plan Season Ticket Holder,

Once again we are able to offer you an online product to resell those few
tickets you may not be able to use from time to time. The product, called
Replay Ticket Window, is located under the "Tickets" link on cubs.com home
page and is operational now. The attached Frequently Asked Questions
explains how this opportunity works.

We are able to offer Replay Ticket Window through an agreement with our
partners, Tickets.com, Major League Baseball Advanced Media and Wrigley
Field Premium Ticket Services.

HAHAHAHAHA!

I'm gonna get stuck with tickets again this year - but I'm sure as hell NOT gonna sell them thru the Cubs when I try.

How preposterous!

E-Man:
"I’m gonna get stuck with tickets again this year - but I’m sure as hell NOT gonna sell them thru the Cubs when I try."

I got the same email...

But I thought you were going to sell most of them off? But I agree, even if I didn't sell mine off, I wouldn't sell them through the Cubs and let them make a big cut of my profits. At this rate those September game tickets will be better to be saved for kindling in the fireplace in December.

Well looks like Pie is going to stick around and play everyday as Piniella said it was going to be either in the majors or in AAA.

I hate to expect anything out of a rookie right away, but you put Pie in the #2 slot and he better start doing something. My personal opinion is he is no where near ready to face major league pitching. Love to be wrong, but i don't think he is.

Theriot will probably still get his share of AB's bouncing around so I am not worried. But Izturis needs to pick it up, .184 is screaming bench me now. I am almost at the point of calling him Neifi Version 3.0.

Manny:

The funny thing is I'm still not sure how Hendry can be blamed for this poor start. If Hendry succeeds in botching the Z deal, I'll be on the firing bandwagon for good. But how is the start to this season his fault?

MANNY: "But I thought you were going to sell most of them off? "

I thought I thanked you! Yeah, indeed I pre-sold a bunch!

Almost all of 'em except choice W.E. summer games.

I suppose they'll be worth something - especially the Mets, Cards & Phillies.

soriano/pie back to back...that's a sharp contrast from the ob% hitter in the #2 slot he was trying out earlier.

hell, pie staying up is kinda surprising to me...

floyd/murton gonna just...well, hell, the cubs now own one the most premiere benches in baseball now i guess...

rest looks pretty straight, though i'd flip jones/barrett myself...nothing worth getting upset about either way.

this season's moving weirdly...

E-Man:
"I thought I thanked you! Yeah, indeed I pre-sold a bunch!

Almost all of ‘em except choice W.E. summer games."

That is what I thought...

You should be fine with those games you have left.

ANDREW: "But how is the start to this season his fault?"

His assessment of personnel is horrendous.

The DENIAL he made of the injuries of Pri-Wood was a sham to folks like MANNY and I and fans everywhere. Not just one year - but TWO years in a row.

The STIFF list I published before: Holly, Neifi, Mabes, O'Leary, Macias, Grissom, Rusch, Womack, Hawkins, Williamson, Hairston, Cedeno, Burnitz, ROrdonez, Grieve, Kelton, EWilson, SMcClain, Lawton.

Let's continue w/this year, shall we?

DeRosa, Its-TURD-is, WARD, Oh-MAN!

I will give you Floyd, Marquis and Lilly so far.

Hendry assembled decent players that DO NOT fit well together.

He is a fool.

Andrew:
"The funny thing is I’m still not sure how Hendry can be blamed for this poor start. If Hendry succeeds in botching the Z deal, I’ll be on the firing bandwagon for good. But how is the start to this season his fault?"

It is a culmination of his "building" of this organization. He shouldn't of gotten the extension before last year. He shouldn't of survived the purging this offseason. He has gone dead backwards since 2003. I don't blame Hendry for a particular loss or even a particular losing streak, but I do blame him for this organization going backwards and having more than enough monies to put a serious contender on the field year in and year out and failing to do so. I just don't feel this organization can get to the next level with Hendry as the GM.

hell, pie staying up is kinda surprising to me…

Anyone who knows a damn thing about baseball should have been more surprised when they sent him back down to Iowa. Talk about stupid moves!!

"soriano/pie back to back…that’s a sharp contrast from the ob% hitter in the #2 slot he was trying out earlier."

As an avowed "stats guy", why wouldn't Lou do the following:

put high OBP guys in the lineup all of the time, and, 2., have Theriot at SS for a little while.

Was there something in ST rthat has dissuaded him from getting him back to his natural position?

Anyone read anything?

crunch:
"this season’s moving weirdly…"

That is being kind...

"Anyone who knows a damn thing about baseball should have been more surprised when they sent him back down to Iowa. Talk about stupid moves!!"

actually ive made my point on why i dont like pie up right now pretty clear.

from both his tallent vs. return side and the fact the club isnt exactly lacking in OF'rs right now.

think that's enough to at least know what im talking about.

others have too, its not like my view was unique...

Hi, I'm cubswinthepennant and I'm always right about Felix Pie because I insult you.

Wes, you're a fuckhead.

satisfied?

well I'd be happy with Pie playing you know if he was actually doing something with the bat.

214/241/357 1 BB/6 K in 7 games

good thing though is that we've given ourselves a nice cushion so we can go through the growing pains.

Oh wait....

hope everyone else starts hitting before Lee and Ramirez start cooling off.

please refrain from the insults and namecalling....thank u

yankees are in last place.

cubs are in last place.

seattle is in last place.

though technically the cubs are a 99.something million team...for all intents and purposes, that's 3 100m+ teams in last place right now.

these 20 game seasons are crazy stuff.

AND - which one of these things does not belong with the other ones?

yankees

cubs

seattle

Well if the Yankees are in last place like the Cubs, I guess everything is fine. Man, what was I getting worried about???

well, the "played 20 games" is what i hoped people would take outta it rather than comparing the cubs to the yankees...190m is a long way from 100m...mariner's pulling in a 106m team for those keeping score at home.

Game 20 and I am sick of Neifi Izturis. Why aren't we trotting DeRosa or TheRiot out there at SS?

Good points, E-Man and MannyTrillo. Thanks.

Cubs.com:

"The Cubs loaded the bases with one out in the second, but Suppan got Cesar IztTurd-is to ground into an inning-ending double play. Chicago had runners at first and third with two outs in the third, but Aramis Ramirez popped up to end the inning. They wasted a leadoff double by Derrek Lee in the sixth as well."

I love the Izturis hate out there. How about 136 million for a guy to not hit a home run through 20 games?

And wow e-man, even cubs.com has taken to calling him IzTud-is.

You know what Chad? I bet Soriano and Izturis will end up hitting what they usually do.

Soriano - His usually 30ish HR 90+ RBI

Izturis - His usual hitting .250 with a sub .300 OBP to go along with maybe 30 RBI if we are really really lucky.

But no one pimped out Izturis more than you using his 2004 season as a bench mark. Hey 1 average season (and it was pathetically average) in the midst of 4 or 5 shitty ones? Who wouldn't go with the 2004 season? (I wouldn't) Maybe he can pick it up to .250 by the end of May, but I am not holding my breath.

That maybe the case, Mike. But that wasn't my point. If Cesar Izturis plays 162 games at this level, while everyone else played as good as we expected, or at least to career averages, we'd be fine. But is Cesar Izturis plays out of his head as Soriano plays well below his career averages, we are in trouble. That's my point. It doesn't really matter is Izturis is no good, we need our big ticket players to play up to par if we hope to compete.

Fair enough?

Green Lantern #15 -- referring to the "pile of poo" batting 8th for the Cubs every night -- fantastic! Great use of aliterative, semi-synonymous terms. I can see it/smell vividly in my mind (phew!).

(Sorry to everyone for commenting so long afterwards)

Ah, the old days. Days when rumors like Cedeno and Prior for Tejada actually had legs around here...

Ah...memories...

from Cubs.com

Cubs pitcher Mark Prior underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder as scheduled, and the team did not plan on releasing any details about the procedure until Wednesday.

I suspect Dr. Andrews anestheologist used the same gas on MP and the entire cub management since it seems everyone is asleep at the wheel...still no diagnosis for MP. The cubs diagnosis: Dysfunctional LOSERS

Anyone heard any buzz about DLee's wrist?

Soriano has no HRs beacuse he isn't hittng the ball hard (and swings at every low & away slider he sees), and Jacques is Jacques, but Lee is actually hitting the ball -- the lack of power, when he is going good, is very concerning.

Well, the good new is, we've got all those hot hitting prospects in the minors ready to go, like,...ah....never mind.

LOUsers

I really would like to see this lineup until lee starts to develop his power again:

Theriot (SS)
Lee (1b)
A-Ram (3b)
Soriano (LF)
Jones/Floyd/Murton (RF)
Barrett (C)
DeRosa (2b)
Pie (CF)

Six games out and falling fast. Someone here made a predication that the Cubs would sweep the Brewers and get back in the race. Let's face it. The opposite is gonna happen. Another loss today and it will be seven games out and we still have almost a week to go before we get to May.

What is going on? This team was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut with starting pitching that was questionable and a strong bull pen. Instead, we have no offense, good starting pitching and a sub-par bull pen overall.

Someone like Lilly, sure he will get paid, but I feel sorry for the guy. He left a decent team to play for a disaster of a team. The pieces just do not seem to fit. They look good on paper but cannot get it done on the field. I agree with whomever is wondering about Lee and his wrist. Maybe the power is gone, who knows? Right now we have four guys hitting, or five when Theriot plays. The problem is that only one or two of those guys, Barrett and Ramirez, is hitting home runs and we rarely, if ever, get more than one home run per game. Let's face it, we rarely get even one home run per game. One or two guys hitting homers and two or three guys hitting singles and occasionally some doubles is not gonna get it done. We are getting basically no production - zero - at all out of our outfield. No team can win in that situation.

I don't think this team is far off from being able to win but two or three pieces are still missing. And those pieces are not likely to arrive this season. I for one am not having any of the talk about the central not being strong so don't worry. I don't think it is too early to be really worried about this team. No, it is not jump off the ledge time but, let's face it, the signs are ominous and those signs are not gonna change. We just do not have enough contact hitters.

Finally, I do wonder how much heart this team has. I think guys like Soriano have pride, DLEE has pride. But I have not seen much fire or heart from the entire team. This is the time for someone, anyone please, to stand up and take charge. Sadly, it is not happening. If we are ten games out by May 1st, it is over boys.

Down on the farm:

- Iowa has scored a total of 4 runs during a 4-game losing streak (sound familiar?)
- Marmol got knocked around a bit last night
- Veal got clobbered again -- ERA now over 10.00

Help is on the way!

I predicted the sweep.

I just noticed that Joe Borowski has more saves than the Cubs have wins -- Ouch! Makes me think there's hope for some of these guys on the Cubs ... once they get out of the North Side!

The Race to the Bottom of the National League

Washington Nationals- 14-6 .700 ---
Chicago Cubs ----------- 13-7 .650 1.0
Colorado Rockies----- 13-8 .619 1.5

The lack of Home runs isnt really the troubling thing to me. It is the fact that this team cannot score unless it is via the HR. Color me very pessimistic about Soriano and Pie filling the top 2 spots in the lineup.

Actually, I'm feeling pretty chipper this morning. Three things happened yesterday to improve my mood.

1) Soriano smacked that ball off the wall in center. That's the first ball I've seen him hit hard since a spring training game against the White Sox. It's possible that the key to the demoralization of this team has been Soriano's inability to hit a ball hard since the season started. I saw him in RFK last year--so did the Cubs--and he just killed the ball. He's back in left field, maybe he'll get going now.

2) That's my dream lineup, Soriano, then Pie, then Lee, etc.

3) Piniella hinted that this lineup was semi-permanent.

I see Hendry's hand in all this and I, for one, am pleased and relieved. Managers, especially old coots like Baker and Piniella, are nearsighted and have no use for rookies. It's the GM's job to get rookies in the lineup. I'm pretty sure that Hendry told Piniella to put Soriano in left field where he belonged, and stop experimenting with him. And Hendry's thumbprints are all over our new #20. A while ago I said that Hendry had to step up, and he has.

With Baker, Hendry made the mistake of abiding by the rule: I pick the players, you make the lineups. Baker exploited that rule by always playing Neifi and seldom playing the new guys that Hendry gave him. I thought then, and still do, that Hendry hired Piniella instead of Girardi because Piniella would listen to him and work with him, whereas Joe G. already had a reputation for not paying attention to his GM.

Meanwhile, Theriot and Murton are riding the pine not necessarily because anyone likes DeRosa and Jones better, but because Hendry has dollars invested in the latter two. So toward midseason if Hendry wants to upgrade anywhere, he has a bunch of solid veterans getting lots of playing time who are available to trade: DeRosa, Jones, and Izturis along with Dempster, Howry, Eyre. That's very positive.

This club is getting old. Let's focus on the future. The nucleus of this team is Soriano (because of the length of his contract), Pie, Hill and Zambrano. Sign Zambrano and I'll sit back and relax. We're in good shape.

So ROBG, was I the one with the lowest win total picked?

If not I, then who?

2008 is just around the corner guys!

VAPHIL: The only problem w/your trade theories, is that an idiot who can't properly evaluate personnel would be the one making them.

That is a BIG problem.

Hendry is in the middle of the pack, or bottom third of the GM pool in terms of talent eval, imho.

What would be amazing is if the new owners hired John Schuerholz!

Dave said:

I really would like to see this lineup until lee starts to develop his power again:

Theriot (SS)
Lee (1b)
A-Ram (3b)
Soriano (LF)
Jones/Floyd/Murton (RF)
Barrett (C)
DeRosa (2b)
Pie (CF)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I was just thinking myself that DLee's being an outstanding #2 hitter this year. Sadly, he's doing it in the 3-hole.

VA Phil:
"I see Hendry’s hand in all this and I, for one, am pleased and relieved. Managers, especially old coots like Baker and Piniella, are nearsighted and have no use for rookies. It’s the GM’s job to get rookies in the lineup. I’m pretty sure that Hendry told Piniella to put Soriano in left field where he belonged, and stop experimenting with him. And Hendry’s thumbprints are all over our new #20. A while ago I said that Hendry had to step up, and he has."

I can't agree with one thing in that statement. I don't think Hendry is telling Lou anything about what to do ON the field. Also, Hendry has to realize that his job is literally on the line this year. He needs to win to keep his job and having Pie hitting .250 and batting 2nd isn't going to help his cause much. Hendry does not make the lineup nor tell the manager where to play his players.

VA Phil:
"We’re in good shape."

Can I have some of that stuff you're smoking??

mannytrillo — April 25, 2007 @ 9:16 am

Hendry does not make the lineup nor tell the manager where to play his players.
----------------------------
Gotta agree with that comment.

Hell, Hendry had to trade Neifi to get him out of the lineup on a daily basis.

I would like to see that lineup, too. Listening to Steve Stone the past couple of days, he constantly harps on the point that Soriano is a leadoff hitter and nothing else. He talks about how the leadoff hitter sees more fastballs, and if he were moved to the 4th or 5th spot, he would see more sliders and curveballs, which he can't hit. I don't follow this rationale. Why would hitters in the 4th or 5th spot be more likely to see those types of pitches? If word is out that Soriano can't hit curves and sliders, isn't he going to see those pretty much all the time, regardless of where he hits? Does anyone follow this logic?

Actually, I was pleased to hear Boars correctly take Stone and Hendry to the mat on the Soriano thing. He was commenting on how ridiculous it is to sign guys and promise spots in the lineup and unchallenged playing time. To me it just permeates a lazy attitude on the club. I start/leadoff no matter how I perform because the boss says so. It's no way to run any sort of business.

http://670thescore.com/

Yeah, aaronb, I heard the same thing. I really don't think that the GM should be making promises like that, and the Brewers GM said that he NEVER would say things like that to someone he was signing. I still am interested in the whole argument about facing more curveballs and sliders when you're in the 4th and 5th slots than when you're batting leadoff.

I don't buy it either Jace. I buy that a pitcher will most likely throw a fastball to get ahead of a leadoff hitter much of the time. However Soriano is only guaranteed to leadoff once per game. After that each and every at bat is its own specific occurance. If I were running things I have Theriot lead off and Murton bat 2nd. At least then you have a 74% chance that someone is on base when Lee,Ramirez, Soriano come to the plate. As it stands now we only have a 53% chance someone is on.

I believe the logic is that pitchers are more aggressive (read: more strikes, more fastballs) with the #1 because they're worried about him getting on base in front of the #2-5 batters. Conversely, they're more willing to walk the #4-5 batters because they're less worried the bottom end of the lineup knocking him in, therefore they'll throw more offspeed junk.

But in Soriano's case, you don't need to talk about theory and logic. Look at his numbers. He's been significantly better in the #1 spot than he has anywhere else.

Va Phil, with all due respect (as it's early in the season and seasons do turn around sometimes) Jim Hendry's tenure with the Cubs has been nothing short of a disaster. He's directly responsible for the vast wasteland that is the Cubs minor league system as well as the last place Chicago team.

Take for example Donnie Veal, supposedly the Cubs next best prospect after Felix Pie. After being highly touted this spring, he's off to a horrendous 0-4 start in AA with an ERA over 10, 20 hits and 18 walks in 15 innings. Donnie hasn't posted to his MILB blog in almost two weeks, which is understandable. And it's not like Az Phil didn't warn us that Veal was prone to needing too many pitches per innning to be a starter, 'cause he did.

Then there's Iowa where the I-Cubs put out a lineup last night that produced only three hits. They led off with a .239 hitter and a .240 hitter, had Fontenot --who doesn't count because the Cubs didn't even invite him to ST---batting third and followed with this:

4 Kinkade .167
5. Machado .043
6. Coats .167
7. McGehee .152

(If Machado doesn't ring a bell, he's the SS we picked out of the Independent League who's holding Cedeno's place until he comes back)

It should come as no surprise that the I-Cubs are dead last in the 16 team PCL in every phase of hitting ---

.236 team BA
.348 SLG
.309 OBP
.657 OPS

It's pretty much the same throughout the Cubs minor leagues. The position players are mostly a collection of stiffs who are there because the rules require 9 men on the field, not just pitchers. And the pitchers in our system? --Just trading pawns for Hendry. Result? -- Last Place.

So, this is the organization Hendry built. A new mess! Same as the old mess.

At least then you have a 74% chance that someone is on base when Lee,Ramirez, Soriano come to the plate. As it stands now we only have a 53% chance someone is on.

Uhh... what?

Career obp #

Murton .367
Theriot .386
= .753 % chance to be on base

Soriano .325
Pie .233
= .558 % chance to get on base

As Ron Burgundy sez: It's science

Bruce Levine on ESPN 1000 reporting that Prior had 'hot spots' in his labrum repaired (whatever that is - HELP, Cubster!). Details to follow later this afternoon as to how long he will be out (that should be funny and interesting).

VA Phil is correct Theriot is sitting because of $$$, and the difference is like $4.1M for Izturis to $380K for Theriot. Izturis should finish at his ML average of .240-.250 with a .300 OBA (if we're lucky). But Theriot would look a lot better in the 2-hole playing SS for this team 5-6 times a week than the current clown(s). I'm not saying Theriot would be a gold glove solution at SS but he wouldn't be Soriano at 2B or Floyd in RF/LF either.

CWTP: I must say that while giving Hendry shit for three years, and deservedly so, I will give him props for some of the young pitching talent coming up, signing Lilly and Marquis (so far, anyway), and signing a couple big-time FA's when I did NOT believe it possible.

Its just his overall "vision" (impaired) that I have a problem with.

besides the black cloud that continues to hover over clark & addison, how's the weather in chicago this morning? will there be baseball today?

LNL:
"Hell, Hendry had to trade Neifi to get him out of the lineup on a daily basis."

When is he going to trade Izzy or Cedeno?

my dad sent me this today:

No team that has finished April five games back has ever won the division.
(This was true a few years ago, so unless there has been an exception
recently, it still is.) I think it is not because the lead is
insurmountable (obviously it is not), it is just that being that far back
is indicative of a problem with the team that is not going away.

That said, the Cubs have to be the best 7-13 team in history. They have
outscored their opponents 88-81! They could easily be 13-7. Very weird.
--------------------------------
settle down, in this division and with the peripherals this team has, and with the underperformance in terms of power of just about everyone, this is far from over.

i know people will make fun of "the best 7-13 team in history" but it's true....the reason these teams don't come back is bc they're not good. this team is better than just about all of those teams that have been down that much at the end of april.....plus there's still a week until may and a series vs. the cards this weekend with marquis/Z/hill going.

let's win today.

can't just add the percentages aaronb, bc then you're double counting the times that both of them get on (not that there's anything wrong with having two baserunners) which means you're underestimating the times neither of them make it.

i'm going back to high school statistics here, but i believe you have to do 1-[(1-OBP of leadoff)*(1-OBP of 2 hitter)]

the gist of your point is true, i'm picking through the details.....

aaronb-

Using Pie's "career" obp % is a bit silly, don't you think?

Even if he raises it .50 points the outcome is still the same. Unless we think he is morphing into a 400 obp guy this year? Nothing in his ML track record suggests that he is going to be more than a faster Jack Jones. A nice player to have around to play defense in center. But lets be realistic with the expectations here. If he puts up a 270/320/425 I will consider it a success. At this point Pie is a #7 hitter.

End'o subject

mannytrillo — April 25, 2007 @ 10:09 am

LNL:
“Hell, Hendry had to trade Neifi to get him out of the lineup on a daily basis.”

When is he going to trade Izzy or Cedeno?
----------------------------

I have as much knowledge on that subject as you do, none. Hopefully soon, but who the hell knows.

And since it is cool to ask each other pointed questions, what does "when is Hendry going to trade Izzy or Cedeno" have to do with your original statement of "Hendry does not make the lineup nor tell the manager where to play his players"?

Going by your original rationale, if you have a problem with Izzy or Cedeno, you should be asking "when is Lou going to sit Izzy or Cedeno" not "when is Hendry going to trade them."

I don't particularly want to see Pie batting #2 either, but (a) your math is wrong, (b) you really should use career leadoff splits if you want to do this kind of comparison, (c) sample size!, and (d) OBP is great but it's not the whole picture.

I really don't understand how the Cubs can simultaneously hold two mutually exclusive opinions about PIE without all their heads exploding.

On the one hand, they claimed he needed to go down to Iowa to learn how to hit major league pitching ( a contradiction in itself!), and on the other Lou Piniella has had him batting #1 or #2 a good deal of the time --- which would seem to be a recipe for failure.

No team that has finished April five games back has ever won the division.

I know you mentioned your "until recently" exception, but two teams did it last year: Both the Twins (8 games) and Padres (5.5 Games), they also both had 9-15 records.

The Yankees were 6.5 back (10-14 record) in 2005.

The Twins were also 6 back in 2003.

The Giants were 5 back in 2000.

There were also a good handful of 4.5 Games Back who won the division.

That's as far back as I looked, so at least this decade, coming back from 5 or more back really isn't that uncommon.

"End'O' Subject"....that statement is effing hilarious....seriously.
It's not like you've just said "Water is wet, End'O' Subject."
Giving your opinion on something, and then saying that is just silly.

Of course, Pie in the 7th spot in the order makes sense AaronB....

With Murton/Theriot batting 1/2, there's a 14.2% chance both will be on, a 46.9% chance either will be on, and a 38.9% chance neither will be on.

provable through voodoo.

The forecast, for what it is worth, is for the rain to stop by 1 p.m. and resume again this evening. High temps of only about 53.

Also, 7.6% chance of Soriano/Pie getting on together, 41.6% of both, 51.8% of neither.

Yeah, I'm fully aware that this is all boring stats, but if someone finds it useful, great. Just indulge me, I can do elementary stats or study for my Constitutional Law or Property exams right now. I'm taking the one not required.

ps it's raining here in columbus right now, and it's almost 1

oh and for the record, i agree with aaronb

1)Theriot SS
2)Jones/Murton/Floyd RF
3)DLee 1B
4)ARam 3B
5)Soriano LF (career .271/.316/.520 in 5 spot for those who will ague that point.)
6)Barrett C
7)Pie CF
8) DeRosa 2B

Anyone?

Yeah, but gobuckeyes, it is only 12 in Chicago.

This team is not done yet. But if May 10th comes around and this team is any worse than 14-19 I this we can start writing the obituary.

Over the next 13 games the Cubs play PITT and WASH 9 times in that stretch. No excuses...Go out and win some ballgames.

Soriano not in lineup today.

Drizzling right now, been raining since last night.

He needs to win to keep his job and having Pie hitting .250 and batting 2nd isn’t going to help his cause much. Hendry does not make the lineup nor tell the manager where to play his players.

I think what we're seeing so far is that Hendry worked very had last winter to fix things that were obviously broken; and now, because it's an old car, some new leaks have sprung in areas (like veteran relief pitching) that were fine before.

So it was unrealistic to think that we would win this year, i.e., go from worst to first. If Hendry can offload some of the older baggage he's been collecting, and if the team can stabilize and get over .500 and finish strong, it will have been a pretty good year, and he can probably survive.

Hendry hired Piniella, so he makes the ground rules. I don't know what they are, but I'm guessing he has more control than he did with Baker.

In theory, McDonough (a marketing guy) could say to Hendry, Look, this new guy Pie is popular with the fans, let's get him on the field, and it would happen.

Maybe AZ Phil could answer a question I asked earlier this week about Pie? With over 1,945 AB's in the minors through 2006, do the Iowa Cubs have a batting coach or manager who can teach Pie what everyone believes he still needs to learn there. Or, would the ML staff and Pinella be able to provide this instruction?

Heard lineup on the radio:

Theriot SS
Floyd
DLee
ARam
Barrett
Jones RF
DeRosa 2B
Pie
Lilly

Also, Prior to announce he's out 12-18 months in about an hour.

Source: Levine

LNL:
"You should be asking “when is Lou going to sit Izzy or Cedeno” not “when is Hendry going to trade them.”"

I have, I think Theriot should be the starting SS and that is on Lou. But still, having both Cedeno and Izzy on this roster is a joke and that is on Hendry.

Yeah, gobuckeyes. Your math is better than aaronb's. I agree. You don't add their OBP's. You multiply their failure %'s.
As for this whole argument about Soriano batting leadoff, it seems that they are arguing that Soriano only bats leadoff once anyway, so people shouldn't be so up tight about having a potential RBI guy batting first. But then, they say that it is better to have him leading off because he sees more fastballs... He's still only leading off once! I just don't get it. I say move him down to 4th or 5th, and if he gets pissed, so be it. He's got enough money that he shouldn't be able to bitch.

The Riot playing SS, lets hope he sticks!!! That would make things berry berry good.

Holy shit, WPZ! I take it Soriano is sore or something... How much SS has Theriot played?

Where is the uproar with Lou saying he wants Soriano/Pie batting #1/#2?? Both are low OBP guys and the Cubs have Theriot/Murton who could easily replace them in the lineup who both have much better OBP.

Good point on soriano on batting leadoff.
Of course, when he is in the first spot in the order, he will usually come to the plate with the bases empty anyway, after Izturs grounds out weakly to 2B, and the pitcher is out.

Dusty Baylor:
"1)Theriot SS
2)Jones/Murton/Floyd RF
3)DLee 1B
4)ARam 3B
5)Soriano LF (career .271/.316/.520 in 5 spot for those who will ague that point.)
6)Barrett C
7)Pie CF
8) DeRosa 2B

Anyone?"

I don't get all caught up in lineup construction like many on here do, but I like that lineup the best I have seen yet if Pie is going to be up with the team.

Good lineup except Jock in the 2-spot. Eck.

VA Phil:
"In theory, McDonough (a marketing guy) could say to Hendry, Look, this new guy Pie is popular with the fans, let’s get him on the field, and it would happen."

And if McDonough said that, which I highly doubt, he should be fired immediately.

Jace-
I imagine Lou did not want to tweak Soriano's hammy on a slick day.

http://www.jsonline.com/watch/?watch=2&date=4...

Ned Yost broke his collarbone taking a jog Tuesday...ouch.

Murphy on WSCR is talking about how he thinks the Brewers were stealing signs when they had a guy on second, during Fielder's AB that led to his 2-run HR. He's also saying that he thinks Brenly knew it, due to some of his comments later in the game.

Lol WPZ........true..just trying to bust up the right handedness of the lineup...
Of course, Jones is .226/.301/.345 batting second in his career...batting 6th, it is .286/.336/.469...Flip Jones and Soriano? Or DeRosa?
Hmmm....

Oh, I hadn't heard about the weather there in Chicago. It was a real shitstorm here in CO yesterday, so I guess I should have figured it would be ugly in IL today...

WPZ:
"Also, Prior to announce he’s out 12-18 months in about an hour.

Source: Levine "

The corresponding move by the Cubs should be to cut Prior today then. There is absolutely no reason to keep him on the roster and continue to pay his doctor bills. He is already going to make millions this year for doing nothing. And there is no way he should be brought back next year (same with Wood).I hope Hendry FINALLY learns from his numerous mistakes and just CUT TIES with Wood and Prior. No bringing them back for little base and tons of incentives. These guys are injury prone and DONE!!

Good riddance....

The corresponding move by the Cubs should be to cut Prior today then. There is absolutely no reason to keep him on the roster and continue to pay his doctor bills.

Has that ever happened in baseball?

Manny- I don't see the problem with keeping the guys, as long as they are signed to low base, incentive-laden contracts. Clearly the whole arbitration thing with Prior this year was a fiasco. But from here on out, I don't see why it's much of a risk to keep those guys in the back pocket, in case they do eventually come out of it. If they do, they could be valuable. If not, it's not like you really lose a whole lot.

Rob G.:
"Has that ever happened in baseball?"

Glendon Rusch? The Cubs did not do it immediately, but they did it a few months later.

What do you gain by dumping Prior now other than some bad will with him, his agent, and the player's union? We're on the hook for his '07 contract regardless, so we might as well stash him on the 60 day, pay him until the offseason, then wish him well and nontender him.

Glendon Rusch? The Cubs did not do it immediately, but they did it a few months later.

So we can agree that no team has ever cut a guy a day after surgery. Not sure why the precedent needs to be set here.

Jace-
In theory, yeah it shouldn't seem to be a big deal keeping them to low base deals, but the expectations will always be there with them no matter what. As long as they are in a Cubs uniform, people will always have in their back of their mind they are going to be great again, and it is just not realistic. These guys are not even worth low base deals. they can't stay healthy at all. Just like Sosa and Kpat, the Cubs should cut ties, move on and put those bad memories behind them, IMO.

It's been entertaining to read the debate between the season's-over folks and the it's-still-early camp. Let's step back for a moment and look at some numbers.

The Cubs are 7-13 with 142 games to go. Suppose the NL Central is as weak as many think and 85 wins will take it. That means the Cubs need to go 78-64 the rest of the way to win the division. Can a team that is "really" an 85-win team go through a 20-game period and only win 7? Sure.

But we have Milwaukee at 13-7. They only need to go 72-70 the rest of the way. How much more likely is it for a 13-7 team to go at least 72-70 than a 7-13 team to go 78-64? I give up on the calculation, but I believe the technical term in mathematics is "a hell of a lot more likely." Plus there are four other teams ahead of us.

So the laws of probability are not on the Cubs' side. But the real question, obviously, is whether the Cubs are "really" a team good enough to win 85 games. Unfortunately, I don't think we know enough now to make that judgment. If the team continues to do poorly, it won't be the same team anyway after the trading deadline, and there's a lot of baseball to be played after that. Heck, we don't know what the team's going to look like a week from now.

One thing we do know is that this is currently a 7-13 team, and we can look at some reasons why:

1. No home runs from Lee, Soriano, and Jones.

2. Ryan Theriot's .731 OPS is higher than that of any of the outfielders, and .731 is not that great for a second baseman.

3. In the latest installment of an enduring theme, the Cubs are giving significant at-bats to players who are contributing almost no offense at all. Izturis is the worst offender, because he's the starting shortstop and, as Chad has argued, there is some reason to think he can improve to mediocre, thereby justifying his glove. Piniella has played Blanco as little as possible, but somebody has to spell Barrett, so we get Henry's non-offense. Cedeno and Pie have to be included in this category based on performance so far. These four gentlemen account for over a fifth of the Cubs' at-bats.

So what's to be done about the offense? About some of the problems, nothing. We're just going to have to wait for Lee and Soriano to start hitting home runs. There are no saviors in the minors, and Sluggers 'R' Us isn't going to drop off a .975 OPS right fielder at Clark and Addison.

But I do think it's time to put Theriot at short. That's been his main position for years, and the reports I've read at Baseball American and elsewhere say he's okay there. I have concerns that his lack of power will always limit his offensive value, and that he won't sustan his current level, but at this point he's still enough of an upgrade to make the move.

I still think Ronnie Cedeno will be a good shortstop in 2008 and a very good one in 2010. But we're playing 2007 games right now, and he's not helping. He needs to be playing every day at Iowa.

I think the Cubs should call up Fontenot, though I believe that will require a 40-man roster move. he's not very good, but he can hit a little and give De Rosa a left-handed backup. For now, make Izturis a very expensive reserve shortstop.

I guess I'd give Pie a few more days to get a better idea of his hitting. Love the defense and baserunning, but if he's not going to hit, he also should be at Iowa, leaving Jones in center and Murton in right.

A backup catcher who can hit at least a little would be nice. Koyie Hill?

I see Hoffpauir has a 1.035 OPS at Iowa....a replacement for Ward?

The sad truth is, none of this makes a bit of difference if Lee and Soriano don't hit homers.

That is correct Vorare on Prior. We are on the hook for the money regardless ( hopefully insurance is on the hook). The only thing he represents at this time is a 40 man roster spot. If a 40 man roster spot is needed. Prior should be recalled and placed on the 60 day DL. I would be shocked to see Prior back with this team next year. FWIW

manny... not only should a precedent absolutely not be set by the Cubs in cutting Prior, even if they did they would still be stuck with the medical bills.

the cubs have control of prior through next year. there is little reason to cut him because the fans put too much hope in him.

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