Yeah That One Hurt

A tough day at the office for the boys in the blue, Lou summed it up well after the game:
“We had a plethora of wasted opportunities.”
You don't say. Before we play the blame game, let's look at a few positives: - Ted Lilly threw yet another quality start and on a night when it seemed he didn't have his best stuff. At least early on he seemed to be missing his locations by quite a bit and getting hit hard, a cruddy Pirate offense certainly a contributing factor. - The top two spots in the order continued to produce going 6 for 13 with a run, three RBI's and two stolen bases. Unfortunately the middle of the order decided to take the night off. - Some nice defensive plays to keep the game going by Soriano and Theriot, although both looked like they were umpire-aided calls. The umps owed us a few from earlier in the year so file it under baseball karma. - Will Ohman performed his LOOGY duties to perfection and has only allowed one hit to a lefty all season on top of four walks in 19 plate appearances. It's the righties that have been giving him more trouble than usual. - Scott Eyre's three shutout innings lowered his ERA to 8.47. - Lou Piniella actually had a relief pitcher left for the 15th inning and a pinch-hitter for the 14th. Baby steps. Oh but much went wrong, beginning with the eight inning: - Lou brings Felix Pie into the game in the top of the 8th as a defensive upgrade over Cliff Floyd. One-run lead, a flyball pitcher and the middle of the Pirates lineup due up, seems like a smart move. But Lou negates all that in the bottom of the inning. Lee and Ramirez reach to start the inning and the Pirates bring in a lefty to face Pie. Lou, going for the kill, brings in Murton to counter and he pops out rather unceremoniously. If you're playing for defense in the top of the inning, why change your mind in the bottom half? With zero outs and runners on second and third, it would have been a good time to try the squeeze with Pie for that insurance run. If it fails, the team should still have a runner on third with less than two outs and you would have set yourself up with a better defensive outfield for the 9th even with a groundball pitcher coming to the mound. And of course... - Ryan Dempster issues a one-out walk to Nate McClouth although I didn't think it was a bad 3-2 pitch. Tailing two-seamer that just missed the plate that most lefties will chase thinking it's going to be a strike. A single later and Jack Wilson hits a flyball to right field. Jones should be out there if not for Lou's substituting in the eighth and while he may have just thrown it ten feet to either side of the plate or in front of him, he does have a stronger arm that would have had a better shot to nail McClouth. - More adventures on the basepaths that I could do without. Soriano gets thrown out at third when a ball doesn't get far away enough from the catcher. Theriot gets doubled off second when a liner by Murton that is in FRONT of him gets caught and Barrett gets thrown out at second base on a missed hit and run by Jacque Jones. - Neil Cotts is no longer invulnerable giving up his first run of the year. I'll pass out equal shares of blame on the offensive ineptitude in the eight to add insurance runs when we had two runners in scoring position and zero outs and Ryan Dempster for blowing his first save of the year against the bottom of the Pirates lineup. And of course Lou for some more questionable decision-making which of course would have been less questionable had Dempster, Murton or Jones done their jobs. While I wasn't nearly as up in arms about Sunday's game as some were, I did understand the concern. The concern was for games like today. Using up bench guys when you're losing to gain just the slightest advantage has a sort of Old West nobility about it. Better to go down with no bullets in the chamber than be left with a loaded gun and a bloody corpse. But when you're ahead or tied, I think the roster shuffling has to be more controlled. That's the time to save those bullets until you have an absolute clear shot and make sure that bloody corpse is in the opposing team's dugout. Well last time we blew a win against the Pirates we reeled off five straight, I'll take that trade-off.
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Comments

Sick, disgusting game tonight. To be honest, we deserved to lose. Soriano was a train wreck on the basepaths and the defense was horrid all over. From Derrek Lee's two big mistakes to the blooper into center field that Theriot and Izturis couldn't catch to the double play that Ramirez couldn't turn. Not getting even one run across in the eighth was also terrible and I had a feeling it would lead to disaster. We deserved to lose. We've played plenty of games this year where we lost when we deserved to win so I was hoping we'd pull this one out. Alas, it wasn't to be.

Perhaps tomorrow.

Soriano not tagging up from 3rd on the flyball to right center in the very first inning was there haunting the team all night. Baseball Gods don't let that kind of bad decision not ultimately figure in the outcome.

One irony is that a little dude, is "The Man" at the plate. Theriot.

The other guys in clutch situations:

A-Ram - not "The Man"
DLEE - not "The Man"
Barrett - for SURE NOT "The Man"

These three guys I thought of as someone that could be reasonably counted upon to lead the team in an important, clutch, AB. Barrett and A-Ram are in a a slump. DLEE can get on base (obviously at a high percentage) but the guy who would end the game w/a HR has not appeared since 2005.

Can't afford to fall further back from the BREW. And, don't look now, but the 'Stros are a game behind us!

*More adventures on the basepaths that I could do without. Soriano gets thrown out at third when a ball doesn’t get far away enough from the catcher. *

In typical Cubbie luck fashion, the ball DID get far enough away from the catcher, but promptly got stopped by the umpire's foot. Also, Soriano did not get a good jump.

Don't get me going on Ramirez. Dude takes a 2-2 pitch about 4 inches off the plate [FSN Pittsburgh idiot announcers thought it was a strike] and gets lucky to have it called a ball THEN whiffs on a 3-2 pitch 4 inches further outside and down????

*Lou brings Felix Pie into the game in the top of the 8th as a defensive upgrade over Cliff Floyd. *

Floyd looked like he didn't know what was going on at the plate tonight. I'd have yanked him after the first K.

Piniella should just start Pie every day in CF. Anyone think he EASILY catches that ball that Jones dove for and barely missed that went for a double and later a run? Besides me?

Plus, Jones seemed totally overmatched all night long at the plate. Every time I see him play he literally looks like he does not know how to swing a bat.

*Soriano not tagging up from 3rd on the flyball to right center in the very first inning was there haunting the team all night. Baseball Gods don’t let that kind of bad decision not ultimately figure in the outcome. *

What are you talking about? Same "gods" allowed Soriano to score a few innings later by temporarily blinding the ump.

We wasted opportunities, but so did the Pirates -- man thrown out at the plate, wasted leadoff triple, etc.

Bad luck for Murton, who failed in the 8th but hit a rocket in the 10th.

Did people really expect Dempster to go all year without blowing a save? If he converts 8 of 9 all year, we will be in good shape. I agree -- it was a pretty good 3-2 pitch.

The use of Pie is ridiculous. How is supposed to learn ot hit MLB lefties if he's neve given the chance to face them?

The great thing about baseball -- there's another game the next day.

Soriano looked terrible scoring, what was it, the third run? He cannot run. At least he cannot run unencumbered. He is really laboring. Watching him try to run from third, I saw a guy who knew he has the ability to run faster. But can't right now. And so he tries anyway. And then looks like a guy who is injured. Yeah, he scored on the play. But I wonder how long it will be until his hammy completely blows. I have a bad feeling guys. I think we are gonna lose him for months at some point very soon. I have urged Lou to sit him for a week or even two if need be. Not that Lou would listen to me, of course. But I do have a bad feeling about this.

On an unrelated topic, did you all see the tape of Clemens throwing yesterday in, of all places, Kentucky? Is it just me or does he look fatter than usual this year? I know that wearing black supposedly is slimming but I could still discern what looked to me like a very huge gut beneath that black t-shirt. He looked completely out of shape. Yeah, he is not paid to run the bases but I have to wonder about his conditioning.

DLEE - not “The Man”

Hmm... not so sure about that:
RISP: .429/.500/.686 OPS: 1.186
RISP w. 2 outs: .455/.500/.909 OPS: 1.409

The Cubs are jumping on the "Ban Beer in the Clubhouse" bandwagon.

I still don't quite get what having a post game beer in a clubhouse has to do with an alcoholic getting drunk at a bar and then deciding to drive but whatever....

Oops... forgot to close a tag there.

The beer thing...

I think it is two things. One, it is a symbolic guesture. But two, and probably more importantly, it is a liability issue. The last thing any team wants is to get sued because something happens after a play was drinking in the clubhouse.

PATHETIC!!!!!

That was one of the hardest games to watch in years. Just piss poor baseball all over the place. Luckily I went to bed in the 13th, so I didn't have to see the Bad News Bears play in the 15th and blow the game. The Cubs got 2 HUGE breaks though and the game should of been over as the umps blew two calls that would of directly let a PITT run score, but too bad we couldn't take advantage of them.

Barring an injury, I don't think the Cubs could of done anything else to take the air out of the sails then with that pitiful performance. But if we can win today, and look good, yesterday will be quickly forgot I am sure.

yeah forgot about that tag up in the first, seemed so long ago. Quade got an earful in the dugout they showed so I'm guessing that was on him.

But if we can win today, and look good, yesterday will be quickly forgot [sic] I am sure.

As it well should be. There are many games, and you cannot focus on one loss.

Funny, but it seems that you "quickly forgot" the last nine games, eight of which were wins. It looks like you are back to your original self. I got worried for a while after you actually said something positive a few days ago.

You ahve a point Manny, but an inadvertent one. (if you were beiing sarcastic)

It is a looooooong season. Forgetting the night before and playing each game as it comes is very important. IMO anyway.

For those of you who might have contributed a week's salary to the Steve Blass Disease Telethon last month hoping it might help cure Luke Hagerty... it didn't. After throwing several "live" BP sessions at EXST (but NOT being allowed to pitch in any games), Hagerty has been released.

Hagerty, a 2002 Supplemental 1st round "sandwich" pick out of Ball State selected by the Cubs as compensation for losing David Weathers to free-agency, was rated the Cubs #7 prospect by Baseball America before suffering a torn elbow ligament in ST 2003 and undergoing TJ ligament transplant surgery. He was selected by the Baltimore Orioles in the '04 Rule 5 Draft and got traded immediately to Florida, but was returned to the Cubs during ST 2005 when the Marlins discovered Hagerty had major control problems. Hagerty has spent the last three seasons at Fitch Park trying (uunsuccessfully) to locate home plate.

And so another one bites the dust.

Ben Christensen
Matt Clanton
Chadd Blasko
Bobby Brownlie
Jon Connolly
Lee Gwaltney
Aaron Krawiec
Robert Ransom

Oh, the humanity!

I understand that was a frustrating one to lose, but we all need to step back and look at the bigger picture. We have won 8 of 10 games. This team is on a good track. In my mind the Sunday comeback win and this loss are a wash -- both were very loseable, very winnable games. We won one, lost the other -- about what should be expected.

The extra 6 innings of work taxed both bullpens, but with two games to play in the next 30 hours, I think the Cubs come out on the better end of that one. While our bullpen guys are tired, they are generally very good. The Pirates' pen is suspect to begin with will now be in shambles for these two games. If we can get to Gorzelanny and knock him out early tonight, we could win two games in one.

DAVE: Hmm… not so sure about that:
RISP: .429/.500/.686 OPS: 1.186
RISP w. 2 outs: .455/.500/.909 OPS: 1.409

Source?

How many AB's for the above in your splits?

Source?

Are you serious? I got it from yahoo sports stats... you find D-Lee's stats with risp on most, if not all, sports sites (espn, cnnsi, yahoo, cbs sports, etc... ). i didn't know i had to quote a source for basic stats now.

How many AB’s for the above in your splits?

35 and 11, respetively. I know - small sample size, but you are the one who said he hasn't been "the man."

I was more perplexed at the fact that we walked 8 and struck out 7 while PITT walked only 2 and struck out 14

DAVE: O.K. well, yes, since people make up shit - a source is fine. DLEE is still The Man sort of. It just doesn't seem like it in situations such as last night.

As I said, I believe him to be the best 1B in baseball, but he had a REALLy bad night.

And, I stand strong on my other under-achievers in key situations: A-Ram and Barrett.

Players I was really expecting a lot more out of this year.

"The Cubs are jumping on the “Ban Beer in the Clubhouse” bandwagon."

Me thinks Casey Moran's/Bernie's/Murphy's, etc are going to see a rather large spike in their attendance by Cubs' players.

A-Ram RISP 2007:
8/32, 2 HR 12 RBI
2004-2006:.303/.389/.575, 27 HR, 202 RBI

Barrett RISP 2007:
6/30, 1 HR, 11 RBI
2004-2006: .292/.367/.469, 17 HR, 148 RBI.

ESPN.

DUSTYBAYLOR:

RISP 2 Outs?

RISP 2 Outs, late innings?

DUSTYBAYLOR:

A-RAM RISP 2004-2006 APRIL-MAY?

A-RAM RISP 2004-2006 APRIL-MAY, 2 Outs?

A-RAM RISP 2004-2006 APRIL-MAY, 2 Outs, late innings?

Barrett RISP 2004-2006 APRIL-MAY?

Barrett RISP 2004-2006 APRIL-MAY, 2 Outs?

Barrett RISP 2004-2006 APRIL-MAY, 2 Outs, late innings?

Barrett 2007 RISP 2 Outs, late innings?

Jeez, E-man. In the time you spent requesting all of those things, you could have looked them all up yourself!

One of the problems the Cubs lineup has is DLee batting 3rd and supplying no power. He and Soriano are on a pace to only hit 11 dingers. JJ is worse. If he keeps this up he'll hit a total of 5.

The Cubs are proving that lineup order does count.

btw... Manny wanted to know Marquis's and Blanco's splits against rhp over the last three years (2004-2006 - does not include this year), so here you go:

Marquis: .281/.301/.393 - 694 OPS - 178 at-bats
Blanco: .228/.264/.362 - 636 OPS - 508 at-bats

As you can see, marquis is the superior hitter against right handed pitchers. I have no problem with LouPa pinch hitting with Marquis before Blanco, especially against RHP. It makes even more sense when you factor in the fact that if you use Blanco, you lose your only back up catcher.

Rob G,

Great summary of the game which was really fun to watch as a baseball fan, but not a great outcome being a Cubs fan. Anytime you lose by 1 run, you can kill yourself in the clubhouse replaying every event that could have turned it into a victory. But a couple of points to augment your analysis, if I may:

Soriano doesn't get thrown out at 3rd if he gets his secondary lead going towards 3rd base. He got the lead, stopped, then took a half step back to 2nd, and then broke for 3rd. You're taught to break immediately for the next base if your secondary is moving forward, and the ball gets loose from the catcher.

Murton in RF for the 9th inning. Pie or Jones throws the runner out at home. If Lou isn't going to play Pie 5-6 days a week in CF or RF, then send him to Iowa tonight. BUT, you need to call up an OF who can play RF in the late innings who has a solid ML average arm or, ideally, a plus arm. That isn't Floyd and it isn't Murton and it cost us a game last night. I'll keep saying it..........bad OF defense kills. I'm keeping track of games that are lost this year to OF defense and that's 1.

Just to clarify George,

While I do think you should gravitate towards defense with a one-run lead late and do think Jones should have been playing RF at that moment, the play at the plate is no different for a RF or LF in terms of arm strength. The only reason team's put the better arm in RF is for the throw to 3b. And as I mentioned, Jones is no lock to not have thrown a 10 foot worm-killer on that play. Our OF defense also saved the game on Soriano's throw in extra innings, at least for a bit.

E-Man-Get a life.

Take your love of minutiae with you.

One of the problems the Cubs lineup has is DLee batting 3rd and supplying no power.

Derrek's got a .585 SLG pct and 21 RBI's (18th best in the NL). Bonds has 11 homers and 23 RBI's. Aramis has 6 homers and 18 RBI's.

Derrek's "lack of power" hasn't really been the problem at all. Let's assume he doesn't go on-pace for 92 2B and 11 HR's and that ends up evening out.

A home run here or there, a dink hit or even just a healthy fly ball in the right spot, and no one would be pinning this loss on the outfield defense.

You could not be more wrong about Lee's lack of power in the third spot. A 3 hitter HAS TO hit home runs. It's not arguable.

So let's move DLee to the 7 spot right away, and put Barrett in the 3 spot, since he has more HR's.

You could not be more wrong about Lee’s lack of power in the third spot. A 3 hitter HAS TO hit home runs. It’s not arguable.

end o' subject?

as I said, don't see Lee hitting 11 homers this year and in the meantime he's produced well above average for a #3 hitter.

Sorry for just the sarcasm there...
I agree Rob.
DLee's always been a 25-35 HR guy...let's not panic the first week of May.

dave:
"Funny, but it seems that you “quickly forgot” the last nine games, eight of which were wins. It looks like you are back to your original self. I got worried for a while after you actually said something positive a few days ago."

Just curious as to whom are you talking about? because i did not forget the previous run, but that still shouldn't stop me, nor anyone else to call the Cubs performance last night what is was...PATHETIC!!!

"A 3 hitter HAS TO hit home runs."

You can say that but it has nothing to do with actual baseball. The classic lineup rules for baseball dictate that you're #3 hitter, is the best hitter on the team. The 4th hitter is you best 'power hitter'. Take Tony Gwynn for example. He hit third. Paul Molitor hit third. It just so happens that in today's game, the best hitter is often a guy who hits home runs, but it's not designed to be that way.

Dusty:
"You ahve a point Manny, but an inadvertent one. (if you were beiing sarcastic)"

Nope, I wasn't being sarcastic at all. While, last nights performance was pathetic, the good from the previous few games out weight it and if the team looks good today, even if they lose, will make yesterday's game leave the memory pretty quick.

but that still shouldn’t stop me, nor anyone else to call the Cubs performance last night what is was…PATHETIC!!!

I didn't say it did... I simply said that we should move on, which is not what you want to do. You want to "not forget" the one loss last night. And I say it is ridiculous to focus on one loss.

DUSTY; "E-Man-Get a life.

Take your love of minutiae with you."

I have a life. You get one. You are the one that posted splits for your pov.

For a more recent example, please see Nomar Garciaparra.

I wonder what Hendry & Lou are thinking about the middle infield.

I thought signing DeRosa was unnecessary at the time, and now it looks even worse with Theriot continuing to do what he did last year (with both the Cubs and at Iowa), and DeRosa confirming that he is a high strikeout guy with some decent pop (we have enough of those). Theriot should be the everyday 2B, because he brings a comibination of OBP and speed that no one else on the team can provide.

Based on last year and this year, Izturis is an offensive disaster, and his defense, which can be spectacular, has been far too inconsisitent for a guy who is going to hit .200-.220.

The rotation/juggling of the middle infield can't be good for the defense, and doesn't seem like a viable long-term solution. I'm not aware of many teams that successfully switch a guy to SS during the season, so making Theriot the everyday SS doesn't seem like the answer, either.

What to do?

manny... maybe we all read you wrong, but it sure appeared like you were saying that the rest of us would forget last night's game even though we should not.

E-man-
I used those splits for my argument, which is true.
I did not see any splits for hitting with RISP, 2 outs, on Thursdays against knuckleballers, so I don't know how Barrett and A-Ram do in that situation

I do know that Ramirez and Barrett have been good in the past with RISP, and have struggled with RISP-2 outs this season.

Dave-
If you look at 2005-2007 stats for Blanco and Marquis vs RHP, here is what you come up with:

Blanco: .667 OPS
Marquis: .628 OPS

It is not the end of the world that Lou used Marquis, but it is not something I would of done and the stats over the past 2+ years bare that out.

dave:
"manny… maybe we all read you wrong, but it sure appeared like you were saying that the rest of us would forget last night’s game even though we should not."

You did read it wrong. Here is my statement I am sure you and others are referring to: "But if we can win today, and look good, yesterday will be quickly forgot I am sure." There was no sarcasm in there. You and others just took it that way.

MVN mock draft...

http://mvn.com/mlb-draft/2007/05/08/first-moc...

Wieters to the Cubs.

"...and have struggled with RISP-2 outs this season."

Yes. Thank you, DustyBaylor.

The kid in the mock draft going #6 is Matt Harvey, RHP from Fitch HS in Groton, CT. He is right down the road from the stadium basically and Fitch is suppose to be playing here in the stadium later in the year. I hope he is pitching that day. I hear from the ocal scouts that he is a stud.

“A 3 hitter HAS TO hit home runs.”

You can say that but it has nothing to do with actual baseball

Thanks for the laugh, Chad.

"The other guys in clutch situations:

A-Ram - not “The Man”
DLEE - not “The Man”
Barrett - for SURE NOT “The Man” "

I'm sorry, I didn't realize that "clutch" meant only with runners in scorng position with 2 outs.

My bad E-Man....

"The other guys in clutch situations:

A-Ram - not “The Man”
DLEE - not “The Man”
Barrett - for SURE NOT “The Man” "

I'm sorry, I didn't realize that "clutch" meant only with runners in scoring position with 2 outs.

My bad E-Man....

#51, care to explain?

well at least Milwaukee isn't winning... of course they're not losing either.

1-1 in the bottom of the 7th

it also helps to have your RH thrower in RF and your LH thrower in LF, but those events where it becomes an advantage are only a handfull a season.

knowing someone has a weak arm in RF can be dangerous whether its true or not...or someone wants to say someone else's arm is just overrated, etc etc...

what really matters in that situation is what the 3rd base coach thinks of that person's arm and what they're gonna do with runners at 2nd/3rd when it comes down to a popup vs. how deep its caught vs. position to throw etc etc...

Way to jinx that one, RobG... Brewers now in front...

Just for the record:

(1)At this point in the season, NL 1st baseman(67 HR) trail only LF'ers (76HR) NL position players in home runs but lead in RBI's (299).
(2)Again, for NL hitters at this point, batters hitting #3 have 71 HR, 312 RBI, while #4 hitters have 72 HR, 316 RBI.

D Lee's RBI total is just average. His HR's are below average.

Rob G.,

I guess I'm going to continue to split hairs on this, but you actually make my point on OF defense. Soriano is playing where he should play and led the NL OF in assists last year - LF. He made the play he should have made given his skills and arm while playing LF. Murton was in medium RF, almost halfway between the IF dirt and warning track. A RF has to make that throw to a location near the Catcher's knees who then drops the tag between home plate and the baserunners shoes. Maybe Jones throws it into the stands - who knows - but at least he has the arm velocity to get the throw there a fraction of a second sooner. Pie - a slam dunk to Barrett for the out.

If Lou's going with LF-Soriano, CF-Jones, and RF-Murton/Floyd, then he better get someone to play RF in the 8/9th inning who can make that throw.

Other observation's: Lee, Theriot, Ramirez, Barrett, Soriano, Jones have to play every day. Does Izturis' glove equal or outweigh his anemic bat - the jury is still out. Floyd can hit the crap out of the ball, can'f play OF worth a crap. Murton - nice addition to a team who needs a LF that can hit. DeRosa - "Attention Eric Patterson, you're table is almost ready".

I'm not exactly sure what you're defining as average...

Lee has 17 RBI's when batting in the third spot in the order which is tied for 9th best in the NL and also only 9th in PA's in the NL at the #3 spot. (happens to be 2nd in runs out of that spot)

And he leads all 1b in OPS in the NL, 4th in RBI's.

what the hell are you trying to get at?

okay. what is the freaking deal with the brewers? this is getting old.

along with the "kids" growing up a bit in MIL, geoff jenkins remembered he's a professional baseball slugger again.

they got a solid, but unspectacular, team. no one's got the complete package, but they got a nice mix of speed/contact/power in enough guys. the defense can be scarey...the pitching is unspectacularly good...

The pitching will fail. The death spiral looms closer and closer.

I'm just worried the death spiral won't get here until after October.

Chad:
"The pitching will fail. The death spiral looms closer and closer."

I hope you are right, but I think many thought it was going to come for DET last year and CHW a few years ago and it never did.

Lee's 10-12 HR's will be enough....

He'll drive in 125 runs with the 90 doubles he's gonna hit.

but I think many thought it was going to come for DET last year and CHW a few years ago and it never did.

Actually...both teams did fall, but the fall was not enough. Both teams essentially collapsed in the second half, but were fortunate enough to just hold on and get into the playoffs.

Remember, the White Sox were a game away from not making the playoffs in 2005.

Nah, the Sox clinched on the fourth-to-last day that year, then swept Cleveland out.

Penny fanned 14 Marlins with his fly down:
http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o104/babes...

thats right.. but my point still remains. both the sox and the tigers collapsed in the second half only to barely hold on to a playoff spot.

dave:
"Actually…both teams did fall, but the fall was not enough. Both teams essentially collapsed in the second half, but were fortunate enough to just hold on and get into the playoffs. Remember, the White Sox were a game away from not making the playoffs in 2005."

It might be semantics here, but "collapsed"???

The White Sox won 99 games in 2005 and went 42-34 in the 2nd half. Yes, they cooled off, but they did not collapse, IMO. And what do you mean the White Sox were a game away from not making the playoffs? They won their division by 6 full games and had the best record in baseball.

As for Detroit, they did stumble I guess. They went 36-38 in the 2nd half, but after the 1st half they had (59-29) all they had to do was coast in. And they were nowhere near in risk of not making the playoffs. they won the WC by 5 full games.

Okay... collapsed was a little strong, but both teams had significant struggles in the second half. And while the Sox still had a good record in the second half, if I remember correctly, they are quite bad in August. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I remember it not being pretty and Sox fans were very concerned about not making the playoffs. Considering how well they started, making the playoffs would not have thought to have been an issue.

But yea... semantics. Both teams struggled significantly at different points in the second half, to the extent that there was actually a pennant race that would not have occurred if they had maintained there high levels of play.

if you still watch the rather unwatchable Baseball Tonight

http://deadspin.com/sports/we.re-shocked-%27%...

John Kruk essentially admitting that what he says on Baseball Tonight is B.S....

anyone care to guess tonight's lineup?

assume Murton plays RF, who's the lefty sucker in CF, Jones or Pie?

i would guess that the cf is jones, only because it seems that LouPa does not seem to trust pie for some reason. not sure what that reason is, but he sure as hell doesn't like to play the guy.

I'll crap my pants if the Brewers make the playoffs-

http://www.peeyourpantsforthebrewers.com/

the brewers obviously aren't going to play at a .700 clip from here on out. a home- and patsy-heavy schedule and a bunch of 1-run wins have them ahead of where they might otherwise be, but 24 wins is 24 wins. they win 88 games if they play .500 ball the remainder of the year, and from what they've shown, they're probably at least slightly better than .500 here on out. and one of the dynamics in play is that winning baseball games gives them confidence that they can win baseball games -- a good start with a young team is going to help them in the confidence department.

the lesson of the 2005 sox and 2006 tigers seems to be that a hot start gives you wiggle room to struggle and still make the playoffs. don't know why citing second-half 'collapses' makes you optimistic for the cubs' cause if those collapses still resulted in playoff births. the brewers still have a ways to go to match those tigers/sox starts, though.

and, chad, thanks for the input. you were right on the mark a week ago when you called their high-water mark. should we mark it down this time, too? at least this time you might be right -- the brewers are on the road against some good teams coming up, which will be a test for them.

Good Grief, this like trying to teach Statistics for Dummies today.

When someone like DLee (or Juan Pierre) plays every game at his position his raw stats are best compared to the league average rather than against individual players who don't get as many PA's. Usually only a select few players (ten or less) are everyday players at any given position.

So, this year the composite First Baseman (the total output by all men playing first base for an NL team) has 124 AB's. Lee has 123. He's played all 30 games and is right at league average for all AB's by the men playing first base for any given team.

Given that the average total output by the average NL team's first baseMEN is 4 HR and 19 RBI and DLee has 2 HR and 21 RBI, I'd say he's average in RBI's and below average in HR's.

And given that the average total output by the average NL team's #3 hitters is 5 HR and 20 RBI
I'd again, say the same thing.

Let me just take a moment to bask in your obviously superior wisdom, cwtp.... ahhhhh....
How would you say Lee's 2B output is, compared to your "typical first baseman?"

dave:
"And while the Sox still had a good record in the second half, if I remember correctly, they are quite bad in August."

Yes, they did struggle in August. They went 12-16.

Or... how would you say that Lee's batting average is?
Lee - .398 BA, 17 2Bs
Average - about .270 BA, 7 2Bs....

cwtp... i don't think that anyone really disagrees with your analysis in the way that you do it. the problem is that your methodology sucks. sure... d-lee is average in terms of rbi and a little below average in homeruns. but as far as I know baseball is about more than just homeruns and rbi.

there is not another 1b's production this year that I would want instead of lee. while he is average in rbi and below average in homeruns, he is well above average in average, obp, slugging, doubles, stolen bases, hits, walks, etc.

but sure... he is just average because of his rbi and homerun output.

WSCR:
Hill and Guzman will be in the bullpen tonight, in case of a bad outing by Marquis, or extra innings, I would imagine.

WSCR -
Jones in CF, batting 8th...

at least lou knows enough to bat Jones 8th against a lefty.

for all of you who want to trade murton, would you really want two of these guys in a lineup against lefties: jones/floyd/pie?

other NL averages for 1b

OPS: 794
Runs: 16
2B: 7

I do hope you're just trying to make some insignificant point rather than trying to say that Derrek has just been average this year.

Um, are we really arguing about whether DLee is having a good season? Really?

If so, that's great news for the human race -- we've officially run out of things to argue about.

hahaha

The pitching will fail. The death spiral looms closer and closer.

I think the same thing was said about Castro's demise back in the 1950s...

How many more games are the Brewers over 500 than Chad's previously predicted "mark it down," "high water mark?"

You guys don't get it! 2 HRs for a 1B ... no excuses. He Fing Sucks!

Go get Richie Sexsox already so this team has a shot!

Beermakers - 14 over, 5 above Crest of Chad

Bah, every team has a place for a few of the high-average-type hitters and DLee is one of the best. Problem is the Cub's and Cub fans fall in love with anyone with a avg over 300. Sorry, but you need some thumpers and some runners in the lineup, too. A lineup full of .300+ hitters wouldn't score as much as you think they would.

I'm glad Lou decided to put those guys down there for tonight. It's Goozy's side day anyway. He won't throw his side session until after the game is over if he isn't needed.

Rynox - I think I know where you are going with that. I think you're saying the a lineup full of 300+ hitters that hit just singles would not score much. I agree. If you are making any indication about Lee just being a 300+ hitter with no power, that is where you and I disagree. For one, Lee's HR totals will pick up, and I do expect him to finish somewhere around 25-30. Also, he has hit 17 doubles!! If we had a lineup full of those types of hitter, we would score PLENTY of runs.

BTW, since I've given Chad a hard time about the Brewers, I will agree with him about not necessarily needing to hit HRs in the 3 spot.I'll also add Joe Mauer's name to the list of good hitters who bat 3rd without hitting a ton of dingers.

You want some power from the 3 spot in the lineup to knock in the first two batters, but it doesn't necessarily have to be Home Run Power, since you've got more HR power coming up in the 4th and hopefully 5th spot in the lineup.

As long as DLee is hitting for a high average with lots of doubles, he's doing just fine in the 3 spot.

"Crest of Chad" just made me shoot an adult beverage out my nose at a high speed. Note to self: People dont inhale whiskey nasally for a damn good reason.

If you arbitrarily assume that Lee's lack of HR's will continue, then it's just as valid to arbitrarily assume that his .398 avg will also continue. You can't just pick half of his performance and say it's a trend, and say the other half is a fluke.

And what's up with holding DLee's spot in the order against him, anyway? There's been a lot of "for a guy in the 3 hole, he should be doing X, Y, Z" in this thread. Isn't that a criticism better directed at Lou, not Lee?

"Good Grief, this like trying to teach Statistics for Dummies today"

You're right it is. Its getting old, so start paying attention already...............

BTW - Slugging % is a much better indicator of a players power than looking at his HR total (Flame away Chad)

"Crest of Chad" whether this is used to revere me or mock me, I love you all more everyday.

First there was "Chadball" now "Crest of Chad". You have my full endorsement to use that as meaning the Brewers stance based on 9 games over .500.

I really should have realized that it was the Pirates and the Nats they they would be playing. Having said that, I have made my bed, and I will lie in it.

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