As measured by David Appelman’s wonderful Fangraphs site
, which calculates Win Probability Added—the methodology is explained here
—the five worst and five best moments in the remarkably dramatic Cubs week that began with last Sunday’s game against the Phillies and ended with Saturday’s game against the White Sox.
The Five Worst
(in ascending badness):
5.) Monday v. Mets, 6th inning. Paul LoDuca doubles off Rocky Cherry, driving in Carlos Delgado to cut Cubs lead to 4-3. (Decreased likelihood of Cub victory by 22.3%)
4.) Saturday v. White Sox, 8th inning. Paul Konerko homers off of Bob Howry, giving White Sox 6-5 lead. (-24.1%)
3.) Saturday v. White Sox, 6th inning. Joe Crede homers off of Jason Marquis, tying game, 5-5. (-25.2%)
2.) Monday v. Mets, 9th inning. Michael Wuertz walks Carlos Delgado. Mets win 5-4. (-33.9%)
And the #1 Worst Moment of the Week for the Cubs…
Thursday v. Mets, 9th inning. Carlos Delgado hits two-run single off Scott Eyre. Mets win 6-5. (-45.7%)
The Five Best
(in ascending gloriousness):
5.) Saturday v. White Sox, 5th inning. Jason Marquis hits 2-run homer off Javier Vazquez, giving Cubs 5-3 lead. (Increased likelihood of Cub victory by 22.5%)
4.) Thursday v. Mets, 6th inning. Angel Pagan hits 2-run homer off Jason Vargas, giving Cubs 3-1 lead. (+25.5%)
3.) Saturday v. White Sox, 8th inning. Ryan Theriot hits leadoff triple with Cubs trailing 6-5. (+26.4%)
2.) Saturday v. White Sox, 8th inning. Aramis Ramirez triples to score Alfonso Soriano, giving Cubs 7-6 lead. (+29.1%)
And now, the #1 Best Moment of the Cubs Week:
Friday v. White Sox, 7th inning. Angel Pagan hits 2-run triple off Mike MacDougal to tie game, 3-3. (+35.7%)
I didn’t include Sunday’s game vs. the White Sox, because, at this writing, Fangraphs hadn’t posted the play-by-play log of the game. Also, that game is dead to me.
Nice week for Angel Pagan and, unfortunately, Carlos Delgado.
Finally, regarding Derrek Lee’s grand slam on Saturday, not only didn’t it rank among the top 5 most positive events of the Cubs' week by Fangraph’s WPA measurement, it wasn’t even among the top 20!
WPA aside, those of us Cub fans who saw it, heard it, or learned of it from the ESPN Mobile report on their cellphones while serving as the official scorer at their son's Little League Game, will probably never forget it.