Can’t The Astros Stay Here For A Few More Games?

The Cubs’ flashy new lefty-bashing lineup—with Ryan Theriot hitting leadoff and Alfonso Soriano hitting fifth--claimed its first victim Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field, as the red-hot home team recovered from a 5-0 second-inning deficit to beat the Astros, 7-6. With a sweep of the weekend series--the Cubs' first Wrigley Field sweep of the Astros since 1984--the team is now 47-43, 3 1/2 in back of the Brewers, who beat the Rockies at home on Sunday. Angel Pagan and Derrek Lee keyed a six-run Cub rally against Houston southpaw, Wandy Rodriguez, in the bottom of the second with two- and three-run homers respectively. Lee’s home run was his first since June 3rd. Houston tied the game in the top of the third at 6-6. Then, one inning later, Ryan Theriot connected for his second home run of the year to put the Cubs ahead for good. Jason Marquis, who gave up six earned runs, eight hits and three walks in just four innings, was as shaky as the Cub bullpen was effective. Eyre, Marmol, Ohman, Wuertz and Howry combined for five shutout innings, allowing three walks and three hits. Wuertz was credited with the win; Howry, with his fifth save. Barry and the Bondettes are next.
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Go Cubs go
Go Cubs go
Hey, Chicago, whaddoya say?
The Cubs swept the Astros today.

It really is great that this team is beginning to win one run games.

The Bonds show is coming to town. Wonder how Zambrano would deal with giving up the record breaking HR.

The second inning was amazing. Earlier in the season, they would've packed it in after a 5-0 deficit.

I forgot to blame Barrett.

:-)

Why does the win go to Wuertz? Theriot's HR was in the bottom of the 4th. Marquis didn't pitch long enough for the win. So is it one of those oddities where the official scorer gets to decide who pitched best out of the pen? Marmol was the first out of the pen to pitch well (Eyre didn't deserve credit for a win). I think Carlos M. was robbed.

Completely agree nohit. The attitude is completely different to the first couple of months. They never looked like they were gonna launch a comeback in april / may.

Affirmative, cubster.

After a lengthy parachat discussion, we determined that it's scorer's discretion.

I agree completely, Marmol deserves the win and I'm not at all saying that because he's on my fantasy team:-)

Oh, so did Marquis look as bad as his stats make him out to be? Been at a meeting all day and saw none of the game:-(

Just out of curiousity, how do you guys look at these two pitching lines and decide the former is better than the latter?

IP H R ER BB SO
1.1 1 0 0 1 2
1.1 0 0 0 1 2

The really curious thing is that Ohman got a hold - before the winning pitcher pitched. That may be a first in MLB history (without a blown save).

One gave up a hit and one didn't...

somewhat simple, but probably what the scorer used.

The really good question is: Why didn't Marmol and Eyre get credited with Holds?

For those who didn't watch the game today, our MVP DeRosa made another outstanding catch in RF. I shudder to think how Floyd would've handled it, just as I shudder to think how this club would be performing without his contributions. This guy really can play just about anywhere, except perhaps behind the plate.

I forgot to add that no matter what position he's playing, it never seems to affect his hitting.

I really hope Lee goes on a HR tear now. And I really, really hope the Cubs keep winning. What fun!

For those who didn’t watch the game today, our MVP DeRosa made another outstanding catch in RF. I shudder to think how Floyd would’ve handled it, just as I shudder to think how this club would be performing without his contributions. This guy really can play just about anywhere, except perhaps behind the plate.

Well, let me ask everyone if they STILL disagree with my preseason assessment that DeRosa would emerge as our SUPERSUB rather than regular 2nd Baseman. If you recall, Piniella was trying to use Theriot in that role. But to me, If I've got a vote, DeRosa is our MVP so far because he's proven to be truly versatile. Truly professional. And like Dmac says, all that moving around hasn't been detrimental to his hitting.

I think Wuertz absolutely deserved that win today. IMO. Now if we can sweep the Giants I will be a very happy man.

And the Brewers play the DBacks who are a much better team than the Giants.

so, what would you all rather have - a four game sweep of the giants, but bonds gets 5 homers (tying and breaking hank); 3-1 cubs, but bonds ties hank; 2-2 split and bonds gets shut out; 1-3 giants and bonds gets dl'd because of hemorrhoids in his larynx; or a 4 game sweep by the giants but bonds gets busted for steroids?

I'd rather Bonds get his infamous HR's next weekend in Milwaukee while we're beating the much better DBacks. At least Bonds won't get to face Marquis who's already given up his quota of historic HR's this yr.

henry, i would take the 0 - 4. The cubs would have to take one for the team for the good of the game.

If the cubs sweep the giants this comming week. AaronB will personally give Barry an injection of "juice" before each and every game. Go cubs go!

What does it mean to get "busted for steroids"?

Giambi admitted he was a blatant abuser....nothing has happend to him.

What does it mean to get “busted for steroids”?
----
I thought it referred to the secondary side effects that require wearing a manzier as an undergarment.

Thank god for bleacher bums this coming week. Hopefully they really razz Barry Bonds and his circus.

Fascinating OF at Iowa right now--

- The once, and future, phenom Pie
- The steady, but unspectacular, .300 MLB hitter Murton
- The Wha?? Josh Kroeger -- hit .382 in AA and is continuing (.313 with 6HR in 23 games) to hit at Iowa. Kid's still only 24.

Interesting.

For your perusing, the pitching matchups for this week:

M: Lincecum (R) v. Hill (L)
T: Zito (L) v. Marshall (L)
W: Cain (R) v. Zambrano (R)
TH: Morris (R) v. Lilly (L)

Maybe we could borrow Steve Trachsel for this Giants series. I'm sure Baltimore wouldn't mind.

Dmac:
For those who didn’t watch the game today, our MVP DeRosa made another outstanding catch in RF. I shudder to think how Floyd would’ve handled it, just as I shudder to think how this club would be performing without his contributions. This guy really can play just about anywhere, except perhaps behind the plate.

I was very wrong about Derosa. He's created from the same mold as the David DeJesus's and Vernon Well's. It's nice to have some beefy HR guys and some scrappy base stealers, but these are the guys that are 100% ball player and make up the meat and potatoes of your team.

I was wrong about DeRosa as well - at least in terms of the contract that Jimbo gave him. Have to give the man credit when his moves work out.

FWIW, I will bet that Z doesn't face Bonds in Wrigley as its a day game after a night game.

Since the Cubs are officially on a roll, I expect the bandwagon "cub fans" to start showing up now. You know, the same ones who showed up in 2003 when it was fashionable to go see the Cubs.

That's about the time my Wrigley attendance dropped dramatically.

Honestly, after a brief stint Cellinsky field, they've been back in full force this season already.

I posted this in the previous thread, but I'd like to hear people's thoughts on it and the most current thread might be a better place for that. Apologies for the doubling up.

I don’t know why Soriano's better performance batting lead off is so hard for people to get their head around. Observationally and statistically, Soriano is better in the leadoff spot. This much seems clear. If anyone is interested, I have a theory that may explain why.

There is a well documented, curvilinear relationship between anxiety and performance. This means that different people perform at different capacities under duress.

MikeC makes an excellent point in regards to Soriano’s performance with RISP. It is not hard to imagine that some players perform better under greater pressure to perform in “clutch” situations while others do not. Playing baseball at a professional level is a job whose demands increase and decrease situationally and as in all work environments, some pressure enhances a person’s job performance, while too much pressure diminishes performance. This threshold of “too much” pressure differs from one person to another. This would then explain why some players are clutch–they perform better when the pressure is on–and also why some players perform poorly in higher stress situations.

It seems very plausible that Soriano does not perform as well in situations where expectations are greater for him to build on others’ offensive production. That being the case, the general theories of run production that would indicate that someone with Soriano’s stats would produce more runs in a different place in the lineup miss the possibility that his stats might change fairly dramatically if his role changes.

I’ll leave the exploration of role theory and its potential impact on performance to another discussion.

Mr Whip,

I posted a response in the other thread, and yes i was being a smartass and i 100% agree with you on this but here was my post...

Chad — July 15, 2007 @ 11:50 pm
“There is a well documented, curvilinear relationship between anxiety and performance. This means that different people perform at different capacities under duress.”

No way! There is no such thing as pressure or clutch or situational hitting. ITs all stats. That’s what i’ve learned here.

By the way, the grape TCR Kool-aid is Grrrrrrrreat!

*sigh* the clutch argument again. Clutch situations exist, clutch hitters do not. Except for a few odd situations, good hitters perform well in clutch situations and bad hitters do not. This has been proven out by stats over and over.

To prove clutch hitting, you'd have to get certain players performing above their average (or below their average) in clutch situations over and over, and that just doesn't happen with any statistical relevance. Clutch hitting might exist, but there's such a small effect as to be rendered inconsequential.

Even Sorianio has years where he hits above his AVG in late games, with RISP, with RISP and 2 outs, etc. Then he has years where he does worse. The overall affect then is pretty close to his overall AVG. Any difference is pretty statistically meaningless over a career.

Also, how about this as a reason for any difference (no evidence here, just a hypothesis):

Soriano bats in the lead off spot quite a bit, so the people generally on base before him will be catchers and pitchers, who are both very slow and bad base runners. Thus, hitting them in in key situations will be more difficult then if you have a good, fast base runner on base before you.

Injury updates...

Ben Sheets still can't put any pressure on fingertip. MRI today.

http://tinyurl.com/23dgg8

Floyd better, Dempster to rehab assignment, Blanco rehab assignment delayed.

From the Sun-Times:

Cliff Floyd was better Sunday after injuring his left shoulder Saturday trying to make a diving catch.
''He'll probably be ready Monday or Tuesday,'' Piniella said. ''He just jammed it.''

Closer Ryan Dempster (strained oblique) is expected to make a rehab appearance Tuesday for Class AAA Iowa. If Dempster has no setbacks, Piniella said he would make one more minor-league outing Thursday before being activated from the disabled list.
Kerry Wood, who pitched one perfect inning Saturday for Rookie League Mesa, will throw for the team again Tuesday.

But catcher Henry Blanco, who was expected to begin a rehab assignment today in Iowa, will be delayed because of what Piniella called shoulder soreness.

''It'll be a matter of a few more days,'' he said.

Two articles that caught my attention this morning.

Mil. J-S:
The injured middle finger on Ben Sheets' pitching hand will have to improve dramatically over the next couple of days for the Milwaukee Brewers' ace to take his next scheduled turn Thursday against Arizona.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=6...

Houston Chronicle:
Tired of watching Carlos Zambrano dominate his Astros, manager Phil Garner is willing to go in search of a voodoo expert to put a spell on the Cubs' righthander if for no other reason than to try to get into the ace's head.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb...

Sounds like someone's about to lose his stupid voodoo job, and i don't mean Ben Sheets' backup.

Cubs winning... carrying three catchers... is it spring training? =)

Anyone see the story this morning about Phil Garner wanting to put a voodoo curse on Carlos Zambrano? After allegedly putting one on Sal Bando (successfully) 30-some years ago.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb...

and the Tribune version of the roster shuffle/injury update...

http://tinyurl.com/2wsgdv

The Cubs are expected to call up right-hander Billy Petrick from Triple-A Iowa on Monday, after Piniella said they were "playing with a little bit of fire" with only six relievers.

"I think we're to the point where we'll have our 12th pitcher back here [Monday]," Piniella said. "It's hard with 11 pitchers. ... We'll see what we do."

Piniella said Floyd's jammed left shoulder is not as bad as feared and he'll be ready to return by Monday or Tuesday. No X-rays were taken on the shoulder. ... Henry Blanco suffered a setback in his comeback, with irritation in his left (non-throwing) shoulder, but is still expected to go on a minor-league rehab stint later this week. ... Kerry Wood said he felt good on Sunday, one day after his first rehab outing in Arizona. His fastball averaged 92-93 m.p.h. in his one-inning outing on Saturday. ...

Ryan Dempster will start and pitch an inning at Triple-A Iowa on Tuesday and maybe one more in relief on Thursday before returning next weekend against Arizona. ...

Phil Garner wanting to put a voodoo curse on Carlos Zambrano?
------
Garner better be careful with that stuff, or at least he better get a cardiac angiogram first. Z's witch doctor usually puts the needle right through the heart.

Anyone have the link to Rich Hill doing the lineup?

With regard to clutch, I believe the traditional quadratic relationship has been proven to exist between arousal and peformance, not anxiety and performance. For example a recent study had individuals answer questions while competing for a cash prize while riding stationary bikes. Not surprisingly, those in the middle of arousal (60-70% of max heart rate) did the best. Those just pedalling leisurely and those being forced to really go at it on the bike, did not do as well. There have been a lot of studies done on anxiety and self-confidence, but different studies have found extremely divergent results - depending on what type of anxiety and confidence questionaires are administered, sex, type of sport, etc. To say there is anytype of consensus out there is a stretch.

Particularly for baseball. It might be easier for running or swimming, etc. but what happens if the pitcher is not clutch facing a hitter who is not clutch and he hangs a breaking ball. If he is a good hitter, he'll probably still hit it. As was already mentioned, statistics have been hard pressed to demonstrate any type of effect in baseball.

Although here is an interesting attempt at measuring clutch from the Hardball times from a couple years ago. None other than Michael Barrett cracks the list of clutch: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/clu...

ZHL:
Anyone see the story this morning about Phil Garner wanting to put a voodoo curse on Carlos Zambrano?

Opponents have resorted to voodoo to try to get to Z? Wow... this story just erased any doubts I had about Z's abilities from the beginning of the year.

Mark-

I would love to see it again it was funny.

http://www.texas-gal.com/centerfield/2007/07/...

ask and ye shall receive, grab it before MLB takes it down.

Soriano went 0-4 yesterday hitting 5th.
SEE!!!!!!?? That proves that he can't hit 5th!!!

Please note sarcasm.

Chad said, "There is no such thing as pressure or clutch or situational hitting. ITs all stats. That’s what i’ve learned here."

You are becoming strong in the ways of the force. No more training do you require. Already know you that what you need.

Jimbo is going be on ESPN 1000 in a few minutes. The station webstreams at
http://sports.espn.go.com/stations/espnradio1...

JIM HENDRY on shortly, interview on ESPN 1000, Chicago.

Waddle & Silvy Show, 9:15 a.m.

Get those quotes ready, guys!

Didn't "Silvy" once call the Morandini-for-Glanville swap one of the worst trades in Cubs history? Yeah, I'm sure he'll ask good questions. Him and the former NFL wide receiver/ Cincinnati Reds fan.

Jimbo cancelled the interview because he had "baseball buisness" to take care of. He will be on the show on Wednesday.

Hendry going to be on Wednesday.

:-p

Hendry canceled... is supposed to be on Wednesday instead.

Maybe is working on trading for A-Rod. :)

Wiscgrad, The relationship between anxiety and performance is well established--perhaps not in relation to sports but certainly as a method of anticipating workplace efficiency. When pressure goes up performance goes up--to a point. Once anxiety increases beyond a certain threshold performance goes down.

See: http://tinyurl.com/youwcn for a host of articles and abstract discussing this. There are studies on this dating back to at least the 1950s.

Johann, is it only athletes that don't follow the patterns established by industrial psychologists or are the other professions that are immune? Why couldn't clutch exist as an outward expression a low tolerance for workplace anxiety? I think your glibness in this instance simply indicates your unwillingness to consider another potential facet of this debate.

Wow... these guys blow.

In case you're still listening to those jokers, here's a link to a Jacque Jones interview:

http://www.670thescore.com/episode_download.p...

Derosa trained as a cage fighter? LOL! Who would've guessed Hill was that funny!

Everyone in Chicago sports talk radio sucks. But a special award must be given to Silvy for having one of the worst, most grating voices in the history of the medium.

Murph is an acquired taste. I like him okay now. Probably just because I get to occasionally hear Stoney; He needs his own show.

In case you’re still listening to those jokers, here’s a link to a Jacque Jones interview:

Ugh... I would rather listen to Waddle and Silvy than pretyt much ANYONE at the Score.

And...Hendry cancelled! Nice back-out.

He'll be on their show, "Wednesday".

So here little known stat-of-the-day:

From NYTimes, Sunday sports section -

"After studying the 5989 position players...between 1902 and 1993, and who played 33,272 years of major league baseball, three demographers have come up with an answer: on average, a rookie can expect to play...baseball for 5.6 years."

listening to the score on Sunday some Sox fan called in whining about the cubs love fest, printing WS tickets, etc. He claimed they were the last to win a WC, and no radio love was being given to them. The hosts laughed at him. And in a way, I think we are all laughing. Welcome back to reality boys, no one really liked you anyway, it was just fashionable.

Koyie Hill DFA'd
Billy Petrick recalled

Also, Sean Gallagher will return to minors once Ryan Dempster is back, apparently game 1 of the Arizona series is the target.

by the way... now that the Cubs are playing good baseball, where did Manny go?

Sox blog complaining about Kenny Williams? Just a guess.

Tim Blackwell - link?

I'm done with sports talk radio until I start baseball-fiending again in January but Mike Murphy ain't too bad ... too bad his show is over in about 150 heartbeats. At least he knows his shit.

Good point, DAVE. ;-)

At this position in the season, the team is fun to watch, and in the race. I am truly interested in going to the games, and turning the tv on, finally, to watch a competitive team.

I have constantly bashed Jim Hendry for 2005 and 2006 falling asleep at the wheel, refusing to replace the manager when he obviously should have been in mid-stream, pushing crap-role players on us as starters, and failing to be PRO-Active in signing our ace pitcher.

But, his moves this offseason coupled with the rise of the young players he signed, has really paid off after a very rough patch.

Lou Piniella was the right guy for the job here, but as I said several times before, he just did not know the talent well-enough when camp broke.

Going forward, I hope Marquis can get it together, Rich Hill finding his April self...Eyre getting DFA'd, ONE catcher hitting EVEN .250, and Fontenot staying steady...Finally, Z getting extended...

But, his moves this offseason coupled with the rise of the young players he signed

Something that often gets forgotten is the players that Hendry KEPT, as in refused to trade.

While Hill has struggled over the last month, it seems pretty clear why Hendry said Hill and Marmol were untradeable.

All hitters in the majors are clutch, otherwise they wouldn't be in the majors.

For those of you who pay to read ESPN Insider, you could potentially go read Buster Olney's column today.

If you potentially go read Buster Olney's column today, you might see that he has some Jose Contreras information:

Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Indians, and Phightin's all on hand see him pitch last night in Baltimore.

I'm Clutch, but I wouldn't be without Spinner and Paddlefoot

http://www.toontracker.com/clutchcargo/cargo.htm

Whip, who knows why baseball is different, but the facts clearly show a negligible difference in clutch stats compared to overall stats. If I had to guess, every situation in baseball is a pressure situation in front of thousands people, you're on the radio and on TV, you are idolized or booed on a consistent basis, so most baseball players already are used to dealing with the pressure. I'd imagine any player who can't handle pressure never makes it in the first place.

When that's the case, a "clutch" situation isn't nearly the same difference pressure wise as if someone who worked in a cube farm where no one payed attention to them suddenly had to save the company with one sales pitch.

But that's just a guess. Either way, it still comes down to the fact that good hitters hit and bad hitters don't, irrespective of pressure situations.

La Russa, on clutch hitting:

“It’s all about distractions,” Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said. “Some guys can’t hit in a blowout game. Some guys are not clutch hitters. It’s about distractions. They’re distracted by the consequences — the game is over and we lose if you don’t get a hit. Part of how you become a clutch hitter is you learn how to clean out distractions and concentrate on the process.”

Many players and managers believe that the ability to perform when pressure is at its highest is not an innate talent, but a learned skill.

It’s not a skill you can’t learn if you’re willing to keep an open mind and learn,” La Russa said. “Guys who are good hitters can be clutch hitters if they care enough about being the go-to guy.”

From the July ’07’s Baseball Digest. It's funny how, since you can't wrap "clutch hitting" up into a nice, tidy stat, it must not exist. Blah.

I say no thanks to Jose Contreras. Especially if any decent prospects would need to be given to the Sox.

He has had a significant loss of velocity and simply is not the same pitcher that he was in the first half of 2006.

ERA, WHIP by month since June, 2006:

June, 2006: 6.21, 1.67
July, 2006: 3.54, 1.28
August, 2006: 7.50, 1.43
September, 2006: 4.40, 1.40
April, 2007: 5.68, 1.46
May, 2007: 3.51, 1.38
June, 2007: 5.59, 1.57
July, 2007: 9.00, 2.00

He has had two, maybe three, solid months. And five bad months. And his two or three decent months were far from dominating. I am not convinced that Contreras can out-pitch anyone in the Cubs rotation right now.

Watching the 10,000 Phillies loss got me thinking. Mitch Williams where are you now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Williams

So, fantasy baseball question:

I have Jim Thome. Someone wants to trade me Joe Nathan for him. The best guy I have on my team for saves is Wickam, so I certainly need a relief pitcher. My offense is awesome, but Matt Stairs and Mike Lamb are my only bench guys I could plug in to the DH. Do you all make that trade?

"Something that often gets forgotten is the players that Hendry KEPT, as in refused to trade."

Indeed, Dave. They have done well for us this year. It is unfortunate theat Michael Barrett did not work out well. Such a good hitter - he was Hendry's "Golden Boy", and the facade of "a good guy". I knew Bowen would not be the guy DFA'd, even though he is 3/32 AB's.

Such a rare commodity it is to find a three or four-tool catcher in today's game. Another reason I was hoping the Cubs would take a shot at Weiters in the draft...

Sounds like an easy trade, Johann... but then again, I've never been all that great at fantasy baseball.

I didn't know Chad had a blog. ;-)
http://ontheshow.blogspot.com/

Rynox-

Then why didn't LaRussa pinch hit Pujols for freakin Rowand at the All-Star Game???!?!?!?!?

It’s funny how, since you can’t wrap “clutch hitting” up into a nice, tidy stat, it must not exist. Blah.

Except you can. And for the most part, the stats show that there is little difference between "clutch" and "non-clutch" situations. As Johann has continued to say (and is continually ignored), over all, good hitters continue to hit well in clutch situations, while poor hitters do not.

I would argue that the difference between baseball and other situations is that there very possible is always a higher level of anxiety/arousal when a person is at the plate. If you really wanted to look at how anxiety/arousal impacted hitters, you would need to measure anxiety levels in different situations. And it is very possible that anxiety levels would not be much different, being that in different situations there are still 30-40,000 people watching you in person, there are often hundreds of thousands (if not millions) watching on TV/Internet, and there is significant money on the line.

Using an argument based on increased anxiety assumes that there is an increased level of anxiety in certain situations, and I am not convinced that this is true.

I've liked Murph less and less over time. He's had John Dewan on, had some Baseball Prospectus guys on, and even had Bill James on for an extended interview. So he's stat-conscious, and I like that.

But nobody obsesses over whoever the third-base coach or bullpen coach is or generally makes mountains out of molehills like him either.

I saw Mitch Williams pitch in semi-pro baseball game in Dubuque, Iowa about 3-4 summers ago. He was wild and lost badly to a bunch of guys I played high school ball with about 10 years ago. Oh how far he has fallen...

FYI... Len mentioned Bill James today on the Len and Bob podcast. That doesn't happen too often from MLB announcers.

Is our editor Automatic Transmission or Manual Transmission? If he is the latter. Then a clutch will be involved.

The E-Man — July 16, 2007 @ 9:25 am

Such a rare commodity it is to find a three or four-tool catcher in today’s game. Another reason I was hoping the Cubs would take a shot at Weiters in the draft…

=======================

E-MAN: Don't give up. The Cubs still might get a shot at Matt Wieters.

If the Cubs can't sign Josh Vitters, the Cubs would get the #4 overall pick in next year's draft as compensation (and that's in addition to their "regular" 2008 1st round pick), and if the Orioles are unable to sign Wieters, the Cubs might be more-inclined to select (and sign) Wieters next year if they have a different owner.

Also, Josh Donaldson (the catcher the Cubs drafted out of Auburn as compensation for losing FA OF Juan Pierre after last season) is really bashing the ball at Boise (five HR in his first ten games). I don't know if you could have expected any more out of Matt Wieters.

From Olneys blog:

Jermaine Dye is irked at the White Sox, and says his agent tried to talk to the team during the All-Star break and got nowhere. Jose Contreras is baffled by his loss of velocity, and he will be pitching in front of scouts in Baltimore today.

AZ PHIL: That is encouraging at least.

Well, Lou loves versatility - how many outstanding catchers are ALSO dominating relief pitchers, too?

How would Lou juggle THAT roster!

Dave,

I'd rather have Contreas than Marquis right now, simply because any AL starter getting roughed up in the AL has the potential to atleast be a decent no .4 starter in the NL Central than a guy already getting his ass kicked in the NL Central. Before last year Joey Cora was on Levine's weekend show raving about Cedeno, maybe a Marquis and Cedeno for Contreas and 3.62 million to offset the differance in Contreas and Marquis salaries next year. Contreas would only add about 2 million (which could be saved by dumping Izturis on some team) to the payroll this year and 12k in 09 because Conteras will be paid 10 million and Marquis 9.88 in the last year of the decade.

On JH's "throw-ins", or "minor" pickups:

Gotta give props to Fontenot, Pagan, Ward...who am I forgetting on the 2007 roster?

aaronb-

Did they provide barf bags for the scouts?

6.0 10 5 5 2 3

Julio Franco said that Contreras use to baby sit him.

Jacos,

No word from Olney on the barf bags. If he mentions them elsewhere I will provide a link.

Gotta give props to Fontenot, Pagan, Ward…who am I forgetting on the 2007 roster?

chifan... the grass really isn't greener on other side.
Marquis has been a significantly better pitcher than Contreras this year.

Marquis: 11.1 VORP
Contreras: -3.2 VORP

That is a HUGE difference. Contreras is simply not worth any prospects. From all appearances he doesn't have it anymore.

I think there going to have to provide barf bags in Wrigley in 09 when were going to be paying Marquis almost 10 Million dollars.

one big problem with assigning "clutch" or "headcases" is the lack of direct cause/effect with backup that can point to players who are vulnerable.

one of the popular cubs kick-toys of the past for being a headcase or not clutch was latroy hawkins.

latroy's a weird player...hell, he's kinda a weird human. known for being stotic, mostly silent, and void of emotion...he's got his own "i just go out there and do it" statements to the press (when they can actually get a word out of him) and he's not known for being emotional or stressed.

with him it may be easy to say "oh, he cant close cuz of his head" or "he's an ace in inning 8, but isnt clutch enough for inning 9."

but it may be better to look at his straight-as-an-arrow fastball and other factors such as a higher chance of seeing matchup enhanced pinch hitters before terms like "clutch" and etc. are thrown around.

soriano is a bit more emotional than a lotta players. personally, i got little idea to how he responds to environmental and personal/mental stresses. still, i find it hard to ignore his play approach has very little method behind it except to sit in the front of the batter's box, swing hard, and hope its in the zone/a mistake/its hit before it breaks.

E-Man: somebody also deserves credit for moving Csrlos Marmol from catcher to pitcher.

Z: 90% chance will be a Cub next year.
Z: Would like to bring Barrett back.

The interview:
http://www.670thescore.com/episode_download.p...

CUBSTER: "E-Man: somebody also deserves credit for moving Csrlos Marmol from catcher to pitcher."

YEAH! I forgot about this! Can he hit? Should he catch too?

Holy shit, Zeus was a catcher? I think it's safe to say he found his knack.

I think there going to have to provide barf bags in Wrigley in 09 when were going to be paying Marquis almost 10 Million dollars.

Yet you want to sign the older (and currently worse) Jose Contreras.

And don't forget that, while minimal, Marquis also brings value with the bat (1.5 VORP).

AAA cubs pitching fodder randy wells was a catcher in the system originally, too...i believe

Cubster — July 16, 2007 @ 10:03 am
E-Man: somebody also deserves credit for moving Csrlos Marmol from catcher to pitcher.

=====================

CUBSTER: It's a little-known fact that the Cubs have a Transpositional Reassignment Clinic at the Fitch Park Infirmary. They can take any position player with a plus-arm and turn him into a pitcher.

Holy shit, Zeus was a catcher?

Yes... which is what makes it that much more impressive. I was one of the few who sided with Hendry (though I admit that I was wrong about DeRosa and other moves) when he said Marmol would absolutely not be traded. He has filthy stuff, but is still learning how to pitch He has only been pitching for a few years.

Jim Bullinger and Kevin Foster were both infielders. Foster converted from infielder to pitcher when he was in the Montreal farm system, if memory serves. Ron Mahay was an outfielder before converting to pitcher in the Red Sox system. Brooks Kieschnick is a special category.

crunch — July 16, 2007 @ 10:12 am
AAA cubs pitching fodder randy wells was a catcher in the system originally, too…i believe

====================

Carlos Marmol (ex-C)
Randy Wells (ex-C)
Federico Baez (ex-3B)
Adalberto Mendez (ex-SS)
Oscar Bernard (ex-C)
Brandon Taylor (ex-3B)
Alfredo Francisco (ex-3B)
Leonel Perez (ex-SS)
Junniol Lami (ex-SS)
Blake Parker (ex-C)

Do you ever see guys move *to* catcher?

Arizona Phil says:

July 16th, 2007 at 10:12 am

Cubster — July 16, 2007 @ 10:03 am
E-Man: somebody also deserves credit for moving Csrlos Marmol from catcher to pitcher.

=====================

CUBSTER: It’s a little-known fact that the Cubs have a Transpositional Reassignment Clinic at the Fitch Park Infirmary. They can take any position player with a plus-arm and turn him into a pitcher.
....................................................................................

Correct me if I am wrong here? Wasnt there an Al Pacino movie from the 70's that dealt with this topic?

Rynox... The View from the Bleachers has a post up today about a current Cubs prospect moved from SS to C.

Rynox — July 16, 2007 @ 10:20 am
Do you ever see guys move *to* catcher?

=========================

RYNOX: 2006 7th round pick Steve Clevenger was moved from 2B to C in the Arizona Instructional League last year. He is presently at Boise.

Also, Casey McGehee has been moved to catcher at AA, although he still plays 3B, too.

I always wondered what it would be like to move a guy like Kerry Wood to catcher. He can throw (albeit not as much as he used to), understands big league pitching, and can hit.

barrett was a 3rd baseman

if you got an arm (or lack of one) your size and stamina (along with team need/philosophy) can do some strange things to your career.

Kerry Wood's bat would constitute an upgrade over the guys currently behind the plate.

"Brooks Kieschnick is a special category."

brooks was the team's 3rd baseman of the future, turned corner OF of the future, turned 1st baseman of the future...etc

then the pitching thing...

that's a guy who didnt give up. imo, he's earned every penny of his pension, benefits, and insurance from MLB.

Yeah, I remember kissing the TV during the last game in '03 when Wood homered to tie the game.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=Aru...

Dave,

What is Marquis VORP since April. Because his stat line since then has been awful:

3-4, 1.49 WHIP, .269 BAA, 5.30 ERA, 12 HRA, and a 40/31 K/BB ratio

It is a garbage for garbage trade. Might there pile of garbage might be useful for us.

What is Marquis VORP since April. Because his stat line since then has been awful:

Do you really want to play that game? I don't know how to look at VORP over a certain period of time.

But lets look at Contreras' numbers during the same time:

Marquis: 3-4, 1.49 WHIP, .269 BAA, 5.30 ERA, 12 HRA, and a 40/31 K/BB ratio

Contreras: 3-9, 1.55 WHIP, 5.20 ERA, 5 HRA, and a 53/26 K/BB ratio.

Not sure how you determined BAA since April, but Contreras BAA in each month since then have been worse than Marquis' for the entire period:
May: .271
June: .305
July: .375

Don't get me wrong - Jason Marquis is far from an ace. But I am quite confused about how you think that Contreras would be that much better that he would be worth giving up prospects for.

And chifan... again, not sure where you got your numbers, but they are wrong. From Baseball Musing's Day by Day database, since 5/1/2007:

Marquis:
4.69 ERA
1.37 WHIP
50/31 K/BB ratio

Those numbers definitely make him look better than Contreras.

Well... maybe not "definitely", but he is definitely NOT worse than Contreras.

Speaking of Marmol, what did you folks think of bringing him in in the 5th? (wasnt tuned into parachat)
Len was kinda surprised, but I liked it.

One more comparison:

Marquis: 109 ERA+
Contreras: 85 ERA+

"Speaking of Marmol, what did you folks think of bringing him in in the 5th?"

im kinda wondering what gallagher is doing if he's riding pine and supposedly the long man.

hopefully, hill can go long tonite. bonds is supposedly hurting and in a mini-slump. winn's out i think.

as someone mentioned Contreras has lost a quite a bit of velocity on his pitches, sort of like Jason Schmidt started too last year. I'd pass...

I agree... Contreras might come around, might not. This is not the point where we want/need to find out the hard way.

Trib reporting this morning that Billy Petrick will continue to wear out a path between Iowa and Wrigley. He's getting the call. No word on a roster move going the other way. Although, everything I've read is pointing to a Koyie Hill DFA.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sport...

"I remember Glenn Hubbard, a coach for the Braves, always said, 'Just go out there and be an athlete,'" DeRosa said. "That's what I try to do. I might not do everything fundamentally sound the way it should be done, but just try to go out and make plays."

Props for the attitude, but I'd hope that with a certain measure of organizational efficiency, that your run of the mill superstar natural athlete might get a little bit of professional coaching before being sent out to sink or swim at any of eight different defensive positions

While I certainly have no confidence in Marquis, if we're going to replace him, it has to be with someone who is demonstratively better who or someone who costs less. Contreras doesn't fit either bill right now.

I would say Matt Morris is a much more likely candidate for a trade to the Cubs than Contreras. The Giants have no reason for keeping him any more.

interesting note on the score - soriano, batting #5 yesterday, actually led off 2 innings....

Ha... this is classic Chad, from one of those "other" Cubs blogs:

Think whatever you want... But you're wrong.

And that was the entire comment. :)

I love this whole debate about clutch. I just boggles your Sabremetic minds doesn't it? But clutch does exist and there is nothing you can do to prove/disprove it with numbers. You know why it exists? Because the people who play baseball believe in it. It's faith. Just like Garner's voodoo. It might totally fuck up Z. Why? Cause Z might believe in it.

I don't see how you can ignore how pressure will effect performance. You don't see a difference in stats? Well maybe that's cause you can't see the entire situation by looking at a box score.

If clutch doesn't exist, then why can't ARod hit in the post season? Shouldn't his numbers be the same?

You know why it exists? Because the people who play baseball believe in it. It’s faith. Just like Garner’s voodoo. It might totally fuck up Z. Why? Cause Z might believe in it.

Wow.

So you justify the existence of clutch because Carlos Zambrano may believe in voodoo?

I think you just proved our point. :)

If clutch doesn’t exist, then why can’t ARod hit in the post season?

This might be true... if the stats backed you up.

While A-Rod struggled in '05 and '06 in the post season, before that he had this line:
.330/.417/.583 with 6 HR in 103 AB

Even with 05 and 06, his line looks like this:
.280/.362/.485 with 16 HR in 132 AB

Oh... and I believe (but I am not sure where to find the numbers) that overall offensive numbers go down in the playoffs when compared to the regular season.

Not because of clutch, but more likely because you are facing better pitchers for the most part.

whatever, Barry couldn't hit in the clutch in Pittsburgh and then what? He suddenly learned in 2002 with the Giants?

And Arod hit the crap out of the ball in the playoffs in '97, '00 and the division series in '04. (70 Ab's). In his last 60 AB's, he's gone on a cold streak.

So what you are saying is that the big three starters and bullpen setup guy and ace you face in the playoffs are going to be tougher than the D-Rays 4th and the Rangers' 5th starters? I would have never guessed.

There are clutch hitters (but this is a bad thing because they should hit well in all situations - just not high leverage ones) and there are chokers - Sammy Sosa went what, 133 bats with the bases loaded before he hit his first Grand Slam. What this has to do with the 2007 Cubs.. I have no idea.

You know Chad, I came into the clutch argument wanting to believe in it because it made sense to me. Then the facts proved me wrong and I decided to believe the facts rather then my opinion. Clutch is very easy to prove or disprove with stats. Name one clutch situation, and you can find stats for it.

This argument seems to me sort of like when people thought the sun really did move in the sky because it made sense to their brains until scientists proved the sun stood still and the Earth moved around it.

"whatever, Barry couldn’t hit in the clutch in Pittsburgh and then what? He suddenly learned in 2002 with the Giants?"

Barry Bonds is a total choke. Couldn't play in the post season until he started juicing. 2002 was a perfect storm of his peak steroid performance enhanced playing ability coupled with the completion of the Barry Bond's strike zone. With out steroids, Bonds would still be a shitty post season hitter.

And Neal, hitting grand slams has nothing to do with clutch. So Sosa's 133 abs with the bases loaded means nothing.

BTW... Sammy Sosa's reputation as not being clutch is pretty un-fair.

Even this year his numbers with RISP are excellent (compared to his poor numbers with the bases empty).

His career line:
.273/.344/.534
His career line with RISP:
.274/.374/.531

They are almost identical, except for the expected jump in OBP.

Johann:
Clutch is very easy to prove or disprove with stats. Name one clutch situation, and you can find stats for it.

No disrespect here, but I fully disagree. Find the stat that tells you who is most likely to be the hero in the 9th inning. I'll say it one more time:

You can not judge a ball player (offense, defense, or pitching) solely on stats. There is more to the game than boxscores.

As Annie eluded to at the end of "Bull Durham", baseball seems like a linear sport with the boxscores and such, but it really isn't.

Barry Bonds is a total choke. Couldn’t play in the post season until he started juicing.

Hmm... Chad - have you looked at Sosa's post-season numbers? He had two pretty base playoff series before his one good playoff series.

Stats don't tell the whole story. Thinking the sun revolves around the earth can be proven. Clutch cannot. God cannot be proven with numbers. Does God exist? Somethings exist without numbers.

Does it make any sense to you that pressure does not effect a player? Cause that is what you are saying. Ask ballplayers if clutch exists. If there are clutch hitters and unclutch hitters. They'll tell you it exists. I believe them.

Haha... the guy filling in for Dan Patrick today is the play-by-play guy for the Yankees and YES network.

His reason why Torre isn't racist?

Torre's best friend is black.

Not saying Torre is racist. All I am saying is that this guy's argument is ludicrous.

So Chad... basically what you are saying is that God is clutch, right?

'Cause otherwise I am not quite sure how an argument for god would have anything to do with a baseball player's ability to hit/pitch in pressure situations.

dave, are you saying that Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball.

Don't be silly. I am saying that there are things in life that cannot be proven/disproven with stats. God and clutch are just two examples.

dave, are you saying that Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball.

Nope... I am saying that Jesus Christ could probably hit a curve ball when the bases were empty and his team was up by 8 just as well as he could hit a curve ball with the bases loaded with his team down three.

:)

Wow!

And Neal, hitting grand slams has nothing to do with clutch. So Sosa’s 133 abs with the bases loaded means nothing.

That's spetacular. Can someone, besides myself because I am obviously biased in some way, describe to Chad what the best situation a hiter should be in to impact the outcome of a game bat is, and what the best outcome in that situation is?

You mean a grand slam in the 6th inning of a game on April 10th, when your team is up 8 to 1 is a pressure packed and important to the immediate outcome of the game when your team is down a run in the 7th game of the world series and the tying run is on second?

Real Neal... there is no question that a grand slam would be the ideal option in that scenario, but I actually agree with him that you cannot make an argument of "clutch" based on how many grand slams a player has.

Steroids makes you a better clutch hitter? WTF?

My whole take on this clutch thing is that give a guy enough AB's in the postseason or certain situations and he's going to hit like he hits the rest of the time.

But pressure does exist, some guys respond a little better than others, but it's pretty marginal. I mean (our) Alex Gonzalez was notorious for game-winning homers for awhile, do you really want him up in the biggest situations because of that? Or would you have preferred Sosa?

Sosa, Game 1, 9th inning, NLCS

stop knocking Sosa. :)

As much as I have been talking about clutch doesn't really exist, it isn't completely what I believe.

I would say that for the most part, people who are good will hit well regardless of the situation. My problem with the idea of clutch is that this presumes that those players who ARE clutch are under-performing in non-pressure situations, and I simply do not believe that is true, as over the course of a season full of at-bats, or even a career, you will hit what you are capable of hitting.

But I also think that there is something like "not clutch." Certain players are unable to perform as well under pressure situations. Soriano seems to be one of these players, as has struggled for most of this career, with some exceptions. There are certain players who do not handle the pressure well, and struggle in pressure situations.

But I believe that there are few players who really perform BETTER in pressure situations.

Rob, don't simplify my entire argument about Bonds. Steroids make you better at almost every aspect of baseball. Including a pitcher's fear of you and your ability to make them pay for a mistake. And the likelihood of a pitcher making a mistake out of fear.

OK, so here's a question for you:

Bottom of the ninth two outs, winning run at second. What Cub do you want up there? My choice, Ramirez. But he's not necessarily the best hitter on the team.

I want Derek Lee up there.

Chad said:
"I[t] just boggles your Sabremetic minds doesn’t it?"

You know what else will cook your noodle, Chad? How about I tell you that there's no such thing as "the hot hand" in basketball. Now EVERY basketball player "believes" in the hot hand and they purposely try to feed that guy the ball. But that doesn't make it any truer. Clutch doesn't exist. Hot hands don't exist. Flip 10 heads in a row and your chances of flipping an 11th head is...exactly 50%.

"My choice, Ramirez"

Lol. Comedy gold.

Man, Dave and chad are in rare form today...

Chad... in that situation, all you need is a basehit, right? Maybe a double?

Lee, RISP: .391/.473/.598
A-Ram, RISP: .299/.373/.563

Lee seems like an obviously better choice to me if you are looking for a single or double. If you absolutely need a home run, the conversation may change.

Horatio:
You know what else will cook your noodle, Chad? How about I tell you that there’s no such thing as “the hot hand” in basketball. Now EVERY basketball player “believes” in the hot hand and they purposely try to feed that guy the ball. But that doesn’t make it any truer. Clutch doesn’t exist. Hot hands don’t exist. Flip 10 heads in a row and your chances of flipping an 11th head is…exactly 50%.

I have to respectfully disagree with this as well. There times when (and some players are streakier than others) that a guy will be tracking the ball well, and times when the guy will fall into bad habits. A ball player batting is hardly comparable to a coin flipping.

Bottom of the ninth two outs, winning run at second. What Cub do you want up there?

NEIFI!!! he was clutch...

I kid, Lee or Ramirez, wouldn't matter. Just not Soriano, too much K'ing.

Chad:
Bottom of the ninth two outs, winning run at second. What Cub do you want up there?

Cliff Floyd and I'm completely serious.

Giambi-
Postseason
.290/7/18 rbi's

39 games

Bottom of the ninth two outs, winning run at second. What Cub do you want up there?

Derosa?

"Hot hands don’t exist."

This is even a worse statement than clutch. This is not even debatable. You're telling me that Jordan going 6 for 6 in three pointers was just a statistical oddity. You are 100% WRONG on this. Players can get in a rhythm and can put it all together. Do you play sports or have you ever played sports? How about basketball, there are times when the hoop seems like its 5 feet wide and times when if looks like a coffee cup.

We can argue clutch but 'hot hand', there is no room for debate.

If clutch doesn’t exist, then why can’t ARod hit in the post season? Shouldn’t his numbers be the same?

Weird things often come in small samples. Who is known as a clutch post-season player? How about Reggie Jackson. Here is what Reggie Jackson hit in 45 league championship series games:

.227/.298/.380

That's putrid. Awful. That is the career line of Neifi Perez. What a bad player in the clutch. Fortunately for Jackson's reputation, some of his teams were good enough to get to the World Series despite his choke jobs. Here is what he hit in World Series games:

.357/.457/.527

So which is it? Choker or clutch? How about neither?

"We can argue clutch but ‘hot hand’, there is no room for debate."

http://thehothand.blogspot.com/

We can argue clutch but ‘hot hand’, there is no room for debate.

Keep it up, these are classics!

pwned. :)

I kid..... (in regards to Scott de B's comment and Chad btw)

Chad, something making sense to me has nothing to do with whether it's true or not. But yes, it actually does make sense that something such as clutch does not exist for the reasons I layed out earlier:

All of baseball is a stressful experience. Major league players are used to the pressure, and thus a little more pressure isn't going to create enough of a difference to be noticable.

But in the end, it doesn't matter. Lots of true things in life don't make sense to me. It doesn't make sense to my brain that using bluing whitens your clothes. It doesn't make sense to my brain that helicopters can fly. It doesn't make sense to my brain that a wookie, an 8 foot tall wookie, wants to live on Endor, with a bunch of two foot tall ewoks. IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE!

But when the facts are there, you have to believe them or disprove them with other facts. Appealing to emotion is a logical fallacy I choose not to use.

And yes, clutch situations can be shown with stats. There are stats for close and late situations. There are stats for RISP with two outs. There are stats for game winning HRs/hits.

Almost everything in life can be measured at this point, even things we never thought possible like emotions. You might not like that we can measure these things. You might think it takes the mystery out of life and maybe I agree with you. But that doesn't take away the fact we can measure them. Baseball is no different. Maybe you think measuring the game takes the joy out of it, and thus you choose to ignore many of the new stats. That is your choice and god bless, but I can guarantee there are numbers for pretty much any situation you can think of if you truly want to spend the time looking.

Also Chad, why would you believe what baseball players say? They're about the most superstitious lot imaginable. Do you really believe wearing the same set of socks for a month in a row without washing them helps you win? Because there are baseball players who believe that. There are also people who believe if you put a horseshoe on your door it's good luck. Yet I bet if you studied everyone who put a horseshoe on their door, you wouldn't see much difference in their lives.

Heck, for a long time, baseball players believed you got your power from your back leg because it made sense to them. Now, a lot of the great hitters use their front leg to hit. It took a mediocre hitter turned coach to change that, and he was routinely insulted for trying to change something which pretty much everyone now does.

I think a lot of times people don't have a real perspective on their own industry. People get wrapped up in "truisms" that have been repeated since god knows when, and I see nothing different about baseball. Bunting someone to second, for example, has long been considered a good thing. But it can be proven that overall it backfires far more often then it works.

Ideas change as more studies are done, facts come out and people look at things a different way. Clutch to me is one of those things people have bought into for a long time because it made sense to them, but in the long run I think it hurts the team. I'd rather have the overall good hitter 10 times out of 10 rather then an average player who we believe is clutch.

Also, to answer your question, Chad, I'd rather right now have Lee or DeRosa up with RISP. Lee has a .391 AVG with RISP and DeRosa has a .363 AVG. ARam has a .299 AVG. Stats:-)

if you want to look at clutch ability, try fangrapha WPA btw...

meh, "fangraphs and WPA btw"

You mean a grand slam in the 6th inning of a game on April 10th, when your team is up 8 to 1 is a pressure packed and important to the immediate outcome of the game when your team is down a run in the 7th game of the world series and the tying run is on second?

Well, actually, let's just think about it. Where does this 'pressure' come from? Does the barometer suddenly rise drmatically, are you talking about pressure that you put on yourself? Because that's where all the 'pressure' is, it's in the brain of the hitter (or pitchers - are their clutch pitchers? Must be). So for some players a bases loaded no out situation may be more pressure filled that an 2 out one man on situation, because, for instance 'OMG I hope I don't hit into a 6 to 1 to 3 DOUBLE PLAY and kill this big inning!!!' or 'well there's two outs when he got that double, so it won't be the end of the world if we don't score this inning..

It's really amazing that Sammy had all those at bats with the bases loaded and they were always up by 7 runs late in the game. That's a statistical anonmally much more amazing than the homerless streak itself!

I want to use an example here related to pressure situations. If you took an average person and told them to defuse a bomb or everyone was going to die, they'd freak out and probably fail. But bomb specialists are used to pressure situations and can handle the pressure. So if you then put them in a situation where they have to succeed or the president dies, they've already gotten used to high pressure situations so the additional pressure isn't going to make a huge difference.

Or let me use an example from my personal life. I do a lot of political work, including public speaking. The first time I spoke in public, I was freaking out and my hands were sweating. Now I can do it automatically. I gave a presentation though recently to a high level public official, which was far more pressure then I usually face. It didn't faze me though because I was already so used to dealing with speaking, I knew how to prepare and I knew my material. I did very well because I was already good at public speaking before I tried this.

Say what you will Johann. but clutch exists. It does. It does cause pressure exists. There is no stat for that. You can't measure it. The problem with people like you is that if you can't measure it, you get frustrated. Have you ever seen the movie "Contact"? A mediocre movie with a great message about science vs. faith. It is possible for things to exist with being able to measure it accurately. You can't measure emotions. There is not scale. There is mystery to life and you can't accept that. You need to think that everything is under control, but it's not.

I know clutch exists cause I can't hit a 3 foot putt if my dad bet's me a buck. I'll choke. I won't be able to handle the pressure. Some people in life can handle pressure. Some can't.

And I will not argue with anyone over your answers about who would you want up to bat with the game on the line. I asked that because I knew what you guys would say.

they’ve already gotten used to high pressure situations so the additional pressure isn’t going to make a huge difference.

Exactly!

That is what I discussed earlier in the thread, just without an elegant analogy.

Clutch, and hitting in high pressure situations, assumes that high pressure situations raises one's anxiety/arousal levels. But MLB hitters are used to hitting under pressure, as, in reality, they are constantly hitting under pressure. In turn, the increased pressure means less than it would without the previous pressurized situations.

I can't hit a 3 foot putt because I suck at golf:-)

I didn't realize Contact was a documentary, I thought it was a work of fiction. Thanks for clearing that up. It's really a day of revelations (no pun intended) for me.

Chad, I knew that being told a hot hand doesn't exist would give you the vapors. Honestly, flip a coin about 500 times. You will see little streaks here and there. That doesn't mean you've got the hot hand, it just means that random distributions don't always "look" random.

Jordan would go 6 for 6 more often than a bad player not because he'd all of a sudden "get hot" but because his FG% was right around 50% (damn he was good.) For any six consecutive shots in Jordan's career, 1.6 out of 100 will be 6 made shots. Take a look at a shot by shot line of jordan's career and this is what you find. Why? Because each shot is a random event whose probabilty is determined by the skill of the player. Flip a coin 500 times (I know you got the time Chad) and you'll see an average of 8 streaks of exactly 6 heads. Same with tails.

Fiction often contains elements of reality. For example, in Napolean Dynomite the sky was blue, they breathed air, and there was gravity. The fact that the movie was a work of fiction doesn't mean everything in it was fake or not true. Yawn.

Rynox, I can actually prove the sky was not blue but colorless! WRONG WRONG YOU FAIL!

I'm having way too much fun here, I need to work:-)

So Horatio, ever game could just be played on paper. Screw real life?

Johann:
Rynox, I can actually prove the sky was not blue but colorless! WRONG WRONG YOU FAIL!

Oh, brother. :)

So Horatio, ever game could just be played on paper. Screw real life?

Oh, brother. :)

just cuz A+B=C doesnt mean its a direct link.

this would hold more weight years ago when robert fick was more of a player, but going by the stats you should never ever ever play him august, but july/sept. are just fine.

its just a statistical fluke, honestly.

"I didn’t realize Contact was a documentary, I thought it was a work of fiction. "

You mean to say that only works of non-fiction can have any real meaning in life? nothing to be gained or life lessons learned from fiction? You poor, poor thing.

Next, hot hand is real. 100%. I really hate to do this but I'm gonna. If you don't believe that a player can get hot, and that it's just like flipping heads six times in a row, I can no longer talk to you about sports. there are times when players out perform themselves. Kobe scoring was not a case of a statistical anomoly. it was a player getting into a zone....

...oh wait...you don't believe in 'the zone' do you?

Well the zone exists. I've been there, I've felt it. I assume that most guys at this board who have played sports experienced it as well. But you can't prove the zone through numbers yet all athletes believe in the zone so....

You mean to say that only works of non-fiction can have any real meaning in life?

This from someone who just offered clutch hitting as a proof of the existence of devine beings. Reality, check it out!

No I didn't. I gave two examples of things you can't prove through numbers.

Neither of which are true...

You probably believe in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy as well.

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