Game 115 Thread / Cubs @ Rockies (2 of 4)

Game Chat Jason Marquis vs. Aaron Cook Lineups:
Theriot SS Taveras CF
Jones RF Mastui 2B
Lee 1B Holliday LF
Murton LF Atkins 3B
DeRosa 3B
d>Hawpe RF Fontenot 2B Tulowitzki SS Kendall C Torrealba C Pie CF Baker 1B Marquis P Cook P


Wowowow...a set lineup. What a novel concept!

Well, 10 runs last night the Pinhead has obviously figured out who needs to bat where to get timely hits.

I'd probably have a lineup of:
The Fontenaught
Soto (but Kendall if we can't have Soto)

But this is certainly better than more Floyd and Izturis torture.

God I love me some set lineups. And no platoons, oh god that's nice.

The biggest test today is going to be Marquis. If he continues to put up a 7.07 ERA (the past 5 games) then I think it might be time to look at Gallagher.

You'd rather have Cedeno then Theriot, Neal?

Wait, you mean 130/163/283 Ronny Cedeno?

What is the Coors Field conversion for a 7.07 ERA? Say 3x, good for 21.21 runs per nine from Marquis? Think April, Jason...think April!

i think it depends on the tem. for marquis
if its a semi cool nite he will be ok,
humid,hot will be lucky to get 5

Wait a're allowed to use the same lineup two days in a row? The same lineup that scored 10 runs the day before? Who knew?

No I mean the .291 EQA, Cedeno vs the .252 EQA Theriot.

I still would like to see Kendall bat 2nd at least a couple times.

All things considered, this has to be the best lineup we can put out. I am going to go all out and say Marquis has a goo night. I can feel it in my waters.

E man, jj seemed to like it there last night. Should we not wait till he stops going four for five till we try Kendall?

I'm guessing Cedeno's very small sample size boosts his EQA. Theriot has been the teams best hitter for about the last month.

Is it right that our claim on Shannon is now out of time?

Agreed. Theriot HAS to be in the lineup.

Is it right that our claim on Shannon is now out of time?
Yep; around 5 or 6 hours ago, I think.

Thanks Vegas Brian. Probably no bad thing.

Games at Coors make it very tough being a cub fan in England.

Cedeno has had some evil bad BABIP luck this year.

be fair to Ronny, he's raised his BA up to .132 from .118 since his call-up.

and where did the 291 EQA from Cedeno come from?

I see .148 on the year, .208 on for his career.

Cedeno has had some evil bad BABIP luck this year.

that'll happen to a player who never hits ball very hard.

"and where did the 291 EQA from Cedeno come from?"

AAA numbers. But I messed that up anyway, probably more like .295 EQA.

Stewart is in the lineup in Detroit.

"Cedeno has had some evil bad BABIP luck this year.

that’ll happen to a player who never hits ball very hard."

Theriot has an ISO SLG of .084 and on XBH per 16.23 AB's. Cedeno has an ISO SLG of .153 and an XBH once every 15 AB's. If Cedno is not hitting the ball very hard, Theriot must be using a feather duster.

Let me steal a quote for Nate Silver. Feel free to substitute 'they' for 'TCR Readers'.

Nate Silver: As I mentioned in the Unfiltered post, I think the real problem is that they don't understand sample sizes -- and so Cedeno's 30 at-bats in the major leagues at .097/.121/.323 get (yeah, that's a weird line) get weighed against him more than his fine performance at Iowa over a much larger sample size gets weighted in his favor. Bring Cedeno, Soto and Eric Patterson up, and you're adding perhaps a quarter of a run to the offensive output at no cost at all.

Theriot is far more likely to get a hit (if not a xbh) and far less likely to make an error.

really a big Cedeno fan, huh? well there has to be one....

when Cedeno starts hitting major league pitching, Cedeno will play. That hasn't happened yet. His last trip to AAA was encouraging though.

I think it's the 245/271/339 in 572 PA's from Cedeno that I don't like and he's done nothing this year to show he can do any better at the major league level. His 2 months in Iowa though was encouraging, he actually started to control the strike zone.


Virginia Phil — August 10, 2007 @ 2:43 pm
AZ Phil–

Quick waiver question: you said if the Sox let Podsednik go to the Cubs on waivers, the Cubs would owe his contract money. So why isn’t the same true of Floyd? Couldn’t the Cubs put Floyd on waivers and let any claimant pay his full salary from now on?

Or is the distinction between waivers and DFA’ing a guy?


VA PHIL: As Dave said, placing Cliff Floyd on waivers won't guarantee a waiver claim. But if the Cubs did place Floyd on waivers (and they almost certainly did) and another MLB club made a claim (which ain't gonna happen) and the Cubs did not choose to revoke the waivers, the claiming club would assume Floyd's contract 100%.

Unlike losing a player on a waiver claim (where the player's new club gets stuck with the player's contract), if Floyd were to be traded, the Cubs would probably have to pay some of Floyd's remaining 2007 salary. That still would be good for the Cubs, though, because at least it would remove the incentive for Floyd's new club to exercise the 2008 club option and stick the Cubs with Floyd's 2008 saalary minus the MLB minimum (which is what would happen if the Cubs were to release Floyd and then a new club were to sign him).

To DFA a player means literally that you are removing from him from the 40-man roster immediately and that you are deferring disposition for up to ten days,

After that ten day DFA period has ended, one of five things MUST have happened:

1. The player has been traded.
2. They player was placed on Release Waivers, didn't get claimed, and has been released.
3. The player was placed on Release Waivers and was claimed by another MLB club for the $1 Release Waivers price.
4. The player was placed on Outright Waivers, didn't get claimed, and has been sent outright to the minors (and if the player has been previously outrighted in his career, he can become a FA immediately or defer the option until after the season).
5. The player was placed on Outright Waivers and was claimed by another MLB club for the $20,000 waiver price.

And in the case of options #4 and #5, a player with at least three years of MLB service time can refuse an outright assignment to the minors (it's five years MLB service time to refuse an optional assignment, BTW), so a player with at least three years of MLB service time must give his permission before being placed on Outright Waivers.

As far as a DFA is concerned, there are no other choices, options, or possible outcomes.
If the player is released or if the player is claimed off Outright Waivers, the player's original club is responsible for 100% of the player's contract minus the MLB minmimum salary (and if it's a multi-year contract, any new team the player may play for during the length of the contract is responsible only for the MLB minimum salary).

If the player is claimed off $1 Release Waivers, the player's new team is responsible for 100% of the player's contract (which is why nobody ever claims a player off Release Waivers--they just wait for the Release Waivers to expire and then sign the player as a FA and pay the MLB minimum salary).

We'll have to agree to disagree. You guys think that a player who's started in consecutive games once this season has had a fair shake, and I think a guy who had a June of .224 .272 .276 in about twice the number of PA's as the other guy's had all year isn't the second coming.

I'm chilling in the chat watching the brewers/astros if anyone wishes...

And just throwing out a numbers here is crazy and arbitrary. OPS is really a dumb figure. OBP is not. Slg is not. But just adding them is flawed in so many ways.

OBP .450 SGL .350
OBP. 320 SGL .480

Totally different players.

I don't think Theriot is the 2nd coming, I was hoping we'd get an upgrade at SS at the deadline. I don't think Cedeno is that upgrade, not this year at least. and you know theriot's been good and stuff lately, not sure if you noticed.

He's run better, he's fielded better, he's hit better all year and has turned it up as of late.

I do agree Chad, but OPS is pretty commonly accepted, so we use it.

GPA is a little better:

Gross Production Average, a variation of OPS, but more accurate and easier to interpret. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, adjusted for ballpark factor. The scale of GPA is similar to BA: .200 is lousy, .265 is around average and .300 is a star.

now watch Chad's head explode...

Gimmee a lineup of those .450 .350 guys and I'll give you a pennant!

Not when they run into my team of .320 .480 guys.

"He’s run better, he’s fielded better, he’s hit better all year and has turned it up as of late."

I won't deny any of those things. I will, however say, "Sample size, Sample size, Sample size, June."

This is as good as it gets from Theriot, and if he continues to play every day and Lou's theory is right it is going to go downhill. Cedeno has shown in '05 in AAA and the Majors, in '06 in winterball and '07 in AAA that there's more to come. Trading the Brandon Phillips's and Ryne Sandberg's of the world isn't always the best plan.

For all the nice fielding stats that Theriot has put up so far, has he gone into the hole to record an out yet? I haven't seen it.

well that I agree with that Neal, this is Theriot's ceiling pretty much and Cedeno probably has a higher one. But now is not the time to base playing time on ceilings. And Theriot will always be a better runner and top of the order guy for a traditional lineup.

Stros up 1 - 0 bottom 2.

Haha Chad!

My team scores 6.147 runs per game.

Your team scores 5.056 runs per game.


I thought you said you read Moneyball?

Real Neal wins!!!

(and I kinda' agree with him about Cedeno too... though I am far from unhappy with Theriot's production this year)

Even bigger news in the Astros' game. JR Towels has been promoted to AAA!

i found i website that says i would score ∞ runs! That website means crap.

bases loaded no outs and the astros don't get a run. I thought only the cubs could do that!

FWIW... If the Cubs do end up getting Scott Podsednik off waivers from the White Sox, coming into tonight's action he was riding an eight-game hitting streak where he has gone 9-29 with a BB (.333 OBP) with two SB (0 CS), two 2B, one 3B, four runs scored, and three RBI, with two K, over those eight games.

So Podsednik is (apparently) finally healthy from the abductor strain and post-2006 sports hernia surgery rehab that has hampered him for most of the season, and is playing his best baseball of 2007.

So Podsednik is (apparently) finally healthy from the abductor strain and post-2006 sports hernia surgery rehab that has hampered him for most of the season

So what was his problem last year?

And, btw, Pods is having a better year the was having last year.

He simply isn't that good.

Second deck...JJ POWER!!

Time to make a deal with the Rockies!

Neal said: For all the nice fielding stats that Theriot has put up so far, has he gone into the hole to record an out yet? I haven’t seen it.

Theriot's range is so limited it's weird. He dives for grounders that are a couple feet to either side.

He does come up throwing, though. His arm is surprisingly good.

He lacks fielding range and power, two traditional tools. He's one of those contact hitters where the better he hits a ball the more likely it's an out because the outfielders are cheating in.

But he seems to have intangibles that Cedeno seems to lack. It's a hard question whether you take at bats away from Theriot to do more experimenting with Cedeno. Usually guys don't get two chances with the same team.

But nothing wrong with Neal championing Cedeno. He could, after all, be right.

Look at the Sox record with Podsednik in the lineup and with him out of the lineup. They are a much better team with him on the field. No idea why, but perhaps speed at the top helps.

With Soriano back and healthy, where do you play Pods?

Matt Murton!! The red guy is heating up...

Murton the Mighty!! outadapark!

Time to reset the outfield,
Murton in Left
Soriano in Right

Soto's 4 RBI tonight give him 81.

Colvin back on track, 4 for 5 to raise avg. to .294. Fifth HR in AA, 12th overall.

Murton has hit 3 home runs in 4 days and we are going to replace him?

With Posednik?

Maybe if I snip all the phone lines to Wrigley....

Podsuckit would have loved himself some taint massages from Izturis.

Beep....beep.....beep. Dumpster time.

Wood, Marmol, Howry, Dempster.

All this team really needs to do is have its starters keep us in the game through the end of the fifth.

That makes us seem a little more formidable, especially with King Murton heating up.

This is too funny...our stars - Jones, Murton & Kendall. This is the alternate Cubs universe. go Cubs!!

What a way to end it! Did Cedeno really make a head's up play? WOW

alright that was an awesome play by Cedeno....

and Cory Sullivan's not very smart.

Cubs at 60 wins...6 off from last year's total.

what happened? can't see.

2 outs, bottom of the 9th, Cory Sullivan grounds to third, Derosa throws it away. Cedeno flies in from 2b and slides on is knees to get the ball that bounced back toward the foul line and throws a strike on his knees to short to nail Sullivan.

Murton with SUPAH POWAH! I love me some set lineups where everyone can get comfortable. I would like to see Lee get a day off though.

nate silver's an idiot if he thinks this is a sample size problem. Cedeno's had a lot more than 30 big league at-bats and he hasn't done squat with them. He's been good in the minors and good in winter ball and good in spring training, but major league pitchers always have him hitting behind in the count. I hope he gets better, and I even think he might, but Cedeno's got a lot more than just a tiny sample.

Oh, and I like BOPS better than GPA or OPS. BOPS is BA + OBP+ SLG. It works out to about 1.8*OBP + SLG for most hitters, but it gives more credit to guys who get their OBP from hits instead of walks, as it should. One of my pet peeves is people who confuse that.

man, i hope the cubs get

i will be sick if this goes through. right around the time i'm confidant in a few things hendry does he takes a big step backwards. this seems to happen every year (trading for izturis, picking up neifi, etc.)

i really hope this doesn't go through, and if it does, that pods only pinch runs.

This is too funny…our stars - Jones, Murton & Kendall

not that funny....Kendall is hitting .317 as a Cub and historically is a good hitter after the break. Jones has been hitting well for quite a while now.
.347 since July 1. Again, Jones has a history of doing well in July and pretty well in August and September. And Murton is hitting .367 with 3 HR since being called up in July. Murt hit .295 .803 in May and then got benched and later sent to Iowa for other Soriano moving to LF, needing to work on fielding in RF, hitting the cutoff man, throwing to the right base, baserunning, avoiding stupid stuff, and hitting for power.

So, it's not like all three of these players are doing the unexpected.

I thought you said you read Moneyball?

Reading does not necessarily imply comprehension.

On another note, I'm liking Kendell's at bats of late. I believe someone mentioned a trio of Hill, Soto and Kendall come 9/1. I am not hating that idea.

champsummers — August 10, 2007 @ 10:01 pm
Murton has hit 3 home runs in 4 days and we are going to replace him?

With Posednik?

Maybe if I snip all the phone lines to Wrigley….


CHAMP: If the Cubs do end up acquiring Scott Podsednik, I suspect he will play LF, with J. Jones in CF, and Murton in RF.

(BTW, notice how much better Murton hits when he plays LF instead of RF?)

And when Soriano returns, Podsednik becomes an extra man (mostly a LHPH and PR). So acquiring Podsednik would be a short-term stop-gap to get an experienced LF and lead-off hitter.

I don't agree with the move (if it happens) because I don't thiink it's necessary, but I'm trying to be both realistic and optimistic (if possible).

With a pennant race going on, I only request no more starts for Cedeno & Pie.

If they've figured things out, they should show their improvement in spot roles.

We can not afford to play designated outs - Pie really needs to relax, he just tries too hard.

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