Reds @ Cubs Series Preview

Redscubs Time to start righting the ship....
Category Reds Cubs
Runs Scored 547 (7th) 538 (8th)
Runs Allowed 609 (15th) 498 (2nd)
Team Defensive Efficiency .680 (15th) .716(2nd)
Starters ERA 4.68 (11th) 3.97 (2nd)
Relievers ERA 5.10 (16th) 4.07 (11th)
Batting Average .256 (12th) .270 (7th)
On-Base Percentage .326 (11th) .330 (8th)
Slugging Percentage .426 (7th) .407 (9th)
Z draws another tough matchup and then Cubs kryptonite takes the mound for the final two games - lefties. Lilly has a 1.39 ERA versus the Reds in two starts this year with 19 K's and only 2 BB's in 13 innings. Marquis faced the Reds once earlier in the year and threw six innings with only a mere earned run against him in the third game of the season. The Matchups
Player W L ERA IP K BB HR FIP
A. Harang 11 3 3.37 160.3 146 41 13 3.30
C. Zambrano 14 8 3.69 161 139 75 20 4.66
Player W L ERA IP K BB HR FIP
P. Dumatrait 0 1 7.71 9.3 6 5 0 3.56
T. Lilly 13 5 3.51 151.3 124 41 19 4.11
Player W L ERA IP K BB HR FIP
B. Livingston 3 2 4.24 46.7 20 7 7 4.78
J. Marquis 9 7 4.18 140 78 55 17 5.03
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Comments

sorry to be ignorant here- what is f.i.p.?

Fielding Independent Pitching...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/g...

Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/tsgtv/

totally off-topic but if you go under categories and sports they have a bunch of old baseball news reel stuff...enjoyed the Babe Ruth Day and Astrodome ones myself.

The Baseball Diamond Jubilee on the front page has some shots of HOF'ers past their prime like Cobb, etc...

thank you rob g. if it's better, just delete my question.
dc

Lilly probably kills the Reds because of guys like Dunn...hope he keeps it up!

no problem, I'm sure a lot of people were wondering, probably should link FIP in the posts to that link I provided in comment #2.

Reds at only 473 runs allowed? That can't be right...

MATT CRAIG (3B) who only has 11 games under his belt with AAA Iowa, already has been named Pacific Coast League Player of the Week.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dl...

whoops, missed one, those were still the numbers from the Rockies series. Thanks.

pretty sure Marquis hasn't won 69 games...

I'm on a roll....

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com...

list of potential FA's the Cubs won't be asking about...

WHAT!!!! We have a better OBP but they have more runs!!!! That is impossible!!!!!! Impossible, I say!!!!

once again the straw-man Chad shows up....

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/cubs.asp?id...

interesting piece about adjusting to life under Lou, couple of shots at Dusty.

Aren't the Cub's one of Harang's 3 losses? I predict the Cub's will be loss #4 as well. As I said earlier, Harang throws lots of strikes and the Cub's have no problems swinging at pitches.

Dumatrait will probably dominate the lineup, as we all beat our heads on the wall asking ourselves why the Cub's can't just take a few pitches.

Livingston v. Marquis? Who knows.

I picked up this item in today's Boston Globe,

There were indications last night the Sox were closing in on a deal with a National League team for Wily Mo Peña, but they still had some work to do before anything was consummated, and they had not informed Kielty of an impending move

Could the NL team be the Cubs? Just a few days ago it was thought that Willy Mo was going to the south side but earlier there had been some rumored interest from Hendry.

Bobby Kielty, btw, has an out in his minor league contract if he's not called up by Boston and the clock is ticking. Meanwhile he's swinging for the fences in AAA and striking out at an alarming rate.
10 Strikeouts/26 AB's

my bet would be the Nats, but who knows...

#14--

Interesting quote from Lou at the bottom of the article:

“One thing that I do try to do is I try to win in nine innings,” he said. “We don’t get paid extra to play extra innings.”

This could explain his sometimes-questionable handling of the pitching staff.

Strawman? Hell no. I think that this one isolated case is rock solid evidence that OBP does not lead to runs. Wouldn't you agree?

My point is really to show that there is so much to creating offense and that OBP is only one part of that machine. And that you can't just point to OBP and say, viola, this team will score runs.

My point is really to show that there is so much to creating offense and that OBP is only one part of that machine.

And everyone agrees with you. So what's your point?

I would say that they don't agree with me. Most people spout off about OBP here as the end all be all stat of all time. They ignore other stats. They will say something like, "I don't want that guy, just another low OBP Hendry guy." Well that totally ignores other facets of that person's game. Yet that sentence goes unchecked here. And many people here think that OBP may just be part of the picture, but at gigantic part which other stats maybe a little helpful but expendable.

The point as always with you Chad, is no one who knows what they're talking about is saying a better OBP always means more runs. But you've convinced yourself that's the argument, so whatever....

Chad:
My point is really to show that there is so much to creating offense and that OBP is only one part of that machine. And that you can’t just point to OBP and say, viola, this team will score runs.

Agreed, but team OPS often correlates to runs scored.

Getting on base, slugging the ball. Go figure.

Personally I hate high OBP and guys who work the count. I just assume every guy goes up there hacking away and we hope for the best. It's worked like a charm so far.

Dave Ross DL'ed btw, ex-Cub Ryan Jorgensen called up. Valentin will get most of the starts though.

Dave Ross DL’ed btw

Wow... DFA'ing a guy who had a .930 OPS last year?

I know he has had a bad year, but still.

And now that I look around... Rob - you sure about that? What I can tell is that he got put on the DL, for concussion symptoms.

Here is the DL link.

Pretty sure they would get in trouble for DFA'ing if he is hurt.

FIP has no groundball to flyball ratio? What's the point?

I said DL'ed, not DFA'ed....

Real Neal.
You should bring up your issues with TangoTiger and Voros McCracken. Let me know what they say.

I'd like to watch a televised debate between Chad and TangoTiger. That'd be fun.

I said DL’ed, not DFA’ed….

Wow... I can read good. Again.

Well they would probably say, in this case that the batter has more influence on groundball/flyball than the pitcher does, which is true, but not entirely relevant.

Why don't you use BP's stat instead?

That singing contest looks like it's rigged. The votes don't count, according to the cubs.
http://americathebrave.blogspot.com/2007/08/c...

Why don’t you use BP’s stat instead?

Cause I like The Hardball Times more....

FIP's easy to understand and read, your ERA based on your peripherals and an average defense. It's no mystery that the Cubs pitchers all have ERA's under their FIP's with the 2nd best defense in the NL.

an article on FIP's and the long ball
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fip...

XFIP is a good number too, it normalizes their home run rates to 11% per outfield fly.

We shall agree to disagree...

Reds will be without Alex Gonzalez for awhile, 10-month old son is sick. Of course Keppinger will fill-in and he's been scorching the ball.

The line-up according to ESPN 1000:

Theriot 6
Jones 8
Dlee 3
Aram 5
Ward 9
Dero 4
Kendall 2
Z 1

I agree Ward should get a start to give him some hacks as the other 2 reds starters are southpaws and with the Reds having 3 Loogys, he isnt going to get alot of swings on wed and thurs, but he should be at 1b giving Lee a 2 day break. He doesnt belong in the starting OF. Dero should also have a 2 day break as he didnt look good this weekend.

who's playing LF?

Who's on 1st Rob. What's on 2nd

I think Levine said on the yammering idiots station that DeRosa was going to start in LF tonight.

Dave, one reads well. One does not read good. Unless of course you were trying to be ironic (which I doubt).

game thread up, Murton in LF in the 7 spot

Dave, one reads well. One does not read good. Unless of course you were trying to be ironic (which I doubt).

I was being sarcastic.

Irony is a form of sarcasm when something is different than what was expected, or when the real meaning of something is concealed or hidden by the actual words used, neither of which I was doing here.

Nice try on the grammar lesson though. :)

I think irony is writing a song about irony yet using examples that are not ironic.

I think irony is writing a song about irony yet using examples that are not ironic.

Yea... that too! :)

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