And the Rest of the 2007 Awards Go To…

I put in my two cents on the Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year awards yesterday but got pre-empted by the JJ trade. I'm back to finish the job. Cy Young NL - Jake Peavy AL - C.C. Sabathia Considering Jake Peavy essentially lead in the pitching Triple Crown of wins, ERA and strikeouts, the NL award is a no-brainer. The AL though is far more interesting.
Name VORP Win Shares WPA ERA+ FIP
C.C. Sabathia 65.2 24 3.66 143 3.27
Fausto Carmona 64 22 4.38 151 4.05
Josh Beckett 58.6 19 3.02 145 3.22
John Lackey 60.7 19 3.12 151 3.66
A pretty tight race with all four candidates staking a claim for the top spot. If we look a the traditional numbers, Beckett lead in wins with 20, Lackey lead in ERA with 3.01, Sabathia lead the league in innings and Carmona lead...okay he finished 2nd in a few categories although I'm sure he lead the league in something. I'll throw out Beckett since I don't put a lot of stock into pitcher wins and that seems to be his only stake to the prize. Out of the remaining three, it's practically a coin-flip decision but I'll give my vote to Sabathia. Out of the remaining three, he led substantially in innings and strikeouts and the ERA gap is marginal. Now if we can only get him to wear his hat straight... MVP NL - Matt Holliday AL - Alex Rodriguez The AL MVP isn't worth discussing except to let Hendry and Tribco. know that the soon to be reigning champ is available on the free market to the highest bidder. The NL on the other hand has as many as 9 candidates worth discussing.
Name VORP Win Shares WPA OPS+ WARP1
David Wright 81.1 34 4.09 150 10.6
Jimmy Rollins 66.1 28 3.20 151 9.2
Matt Holliday 75.0 30 5.06 150 9.7
Prince Fielder 69.1 28 5.24 156 6.8
Hanley Ramirez 89.5 29 2.45 151 8.9
Chipper Jones 76.0 26 4.23 166 9.1
Chase Utley 68.8 28 3.78 145 9.3
Albert Pujols 72.1 32 4.65 157 11.3
Miguel Cabrera 81.4 30 4.61 150 9.2
In terms of the traditional stats, Prince led the league in homers, Holliday led in doubles, batting average and RBI's, Rollins led in runs, Chipper in OPS and of course David Wright was a 30/30 man. Chase Utley was probably well on his way to the MVP before he broke his hand and missed a month of the season, thus leaving his counting stats just a little short. The same can be said for Chipper Jones. As fantastic a season as Prince had, he was outplayed by Albert at his position if you look at the advance metrics. The buzz out there is that it's a race between Rollins and Holliday, and for the life of me I can't figure out why Rollins became a media favorite. The Phils did have a great run down the stretch but he had an .875 OPS in Sept, his teammate Utley was almost as good at .873. Then compare that to Matt Holliday's September (1.244) and Wright (1.034) and the "carrying the team" argument doesn't hold water. Plus he was outplayed at his position by Hanley Ramirez. I think Wright had the better season between Cabrera and himself when you account for defense so that'll knock fat Miggy out. That leaves it a four-horse race between Wright, Holliday, Pujols and Ramirez. While team success is usually a heavy factor in the MVP race for the traditional media, I tend to use it more as a tie-breaker and in this case I'll use it to filter out Pujols and Ramirez Another of my favorite stats is OBI%(Others Batted In%) as tracked by BP. Take the amount of runners on base when a player gets up and the amount of those that score and you get OBI%, about as good a measure of a player's "clutch" ability as you'll find out there besides WPA that I listed earlier. Holliday - .21218 Wright - .17991 I think you can see where I'm leaning on this one and despite the "Coors" factor, I think Matt Holliday should be your NL MVP...just as long as it's not Jimmy Rollins. If I filled out the traditional ten place ballot, it would have looked like this: Holliday Wright Pujols Ramirez Cabrera Utley Chipper Rollins Prince Beltran ----------- In Cubs news, I mentioned earlier that the Cubs sent $2MM to the Tigers in the Jones/Infante swap, about a million too much in my opinion and it appears that they'll realize about $2MM in savings when it's all said and done. And it appears that Craig Monroe is about to get dealt to the Minnesota Twins for a PTBNL.
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Comments

Along with the Craig Munroe to Twins rumor, ESPN 1000 Bruce Levine is saying Cubs "are going after" Carl Crawford.

Well, Jim. At least you're keeping busy this time of year.

Rich Hill + EPatt according to Yahoo! Sports is the alleged potential bounty for Crawford

Jojame-
Change that to Sean Marshall you have a deal.

Aubry Huff might be available soon-
http://deadspin.com/sports/the-love-sponge/ev...

Hill would get creamed in the AL East.

If the Cubs have to give up Rich Hill or Carlos Marmol to get Carl Crawford, it's not worth it. Otherwise, fine. Make the deal. But I just can't see the Rays dealing Crawford to the Cubs without getting R. Hill or Marmol back.

It would be far better to overpay (financially) to sign Kosuke Fukudome, because at least Ko-Skay wouldn't cost the Cubs any players (especially front-line pitching) or draft picks.

Adding a front-line high-quality outfielder in a trade does not make the Cubs a better team if it means subtracting R. Hill or Marmol.

Yahoo's source for the Crawford rumor of "Rich Hill, Eric Patterson and a couple more prospects" is the Paul Sullivan article from today's Tribune.

Not only does that list appear (at least IMO) to be pure speculation by Sullivan, but he also follows it up by saying Hendry's primary target is Fukudome.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sport...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Cubs-...

Yeah, Phil. I agree. I thnk they really should press for Kosuke... and A-rod...

The Yahoo Sports rumor which really came from the Trib isn't a real rumor..
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sport...

The Cubs could try to pull off a trade for Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford, which would probably take Rich Hill, Eric Patterson and a couple more prospects.

That's just Paul Sullivan speculating...

same piece says...
But Hendry's primary target appears to be Japanese free agent Kosuke Fukudome, who declared for Japanese free agency Monday.

so, you're saying Marshall and Hill are not interchangable?

What about Marquis, and we send them plenty of cash?

reading the other boards, Levine apparently reported that Hendry is putting together "an impressive package of prospects" for Crawford.

Cedeno, Gallagher would be a start....

I bet they'd like Wuertz too.

Probably have to throw in one more top 10ish prospect at least, possibly E-Pat.

ROB G.: Is Oh-Man! a consideration? Everyone needs a LOOGY, right?

Monroe trade is official, for PTBNL.

From Star-Tribune blog...

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/christensen/

...an answer to the question, "Why do the Twins want him?":

Monroe has been a notorious Twins killer throughout his career, batting .322 against them with 13 home runs in 283 at-bats. He has batted .304 in 35 career games at the Metrodome.

Monroe is also close friends with free agent center fielder Torii Hunter, and the two work out together in the offseason at a facility outside Dallas.

I would trade any of those guys for Crawford.....if we lead him off that is.

You gotta' give to get. Junk, even if it's a truckload of junk, is not going to get you Crawford.

Young, inexpensive talent such as Hill or Marmol will have to be in the deal.

So if the Cubs get Crawford, do they then also get Fukudome?

Maybe Pie is in the deal.

Sound bite of Hendry on radio today, he was really, really down playing getting Fukudome stating that Japanese teams can sign him too.

Me thinks he protest too much.

well I wouldn't call Gallagher, Epat or Wuertz junk...

I have a hard time believing Hendry would part with Hill or Marmol. You fill a hole but create another that's not easily replaceable. But if I had to choose between the two, I'd ship Marmol off before Hill. Relievers are always available. An above average starting pitcher who's been able to stay healthy most of his career, not so much.

I just don't think the Drays are too interested in another OF at this point, pitching, catcher, defensive-minded shortstop seem to be their wants.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb...

Astros will make offers to Randy Wolf, Luis Castillo and Francisco Cordero today.

He'll be using the carpet bombing method to free agency..


"Multiple offers, multiple positions," he said. "We're going to send a message that we're prepared to move forward and do deals sooner rather than later."

His list apparently includes Tadahito Iguchi, Scott Linebrink, Kaz Matsui, Jason Jennings, Jon Lieber and others. I asked Wade if he was nervous. At the moment, his club has questions up and down the roster.

WGN radio report possibly out there that Wood is seeking 2/10 in a deal which I find hard to believe. Cause if he was, he'd probably be signed already.

Power pitching is priority 1,2,3 and 4 for the Drays one would think. Hill is the most proven and probably therefore target #1. Power bullpen guys like Mateo,Petrick, Ceda or Rockey Roquete would probably be included, along with at least 1 close to major league ready guy. Epatt makes alot of sense. I wouldnt be suprised to see Jake Fox included in a Crawford deal. Simply because he can don the "tools of ignorance" a few times a week if necessary.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com...

bottom of the piece says Guzman and Prior were activated and added to the 40-man roster and it's at 38 currently.

We'll see what happens, but the Cubs can't afford to give up Rich HIll in my opinion, not in this starting market. Besides being pretty good, he's damn cheap. Trade him and you have to try and fill it with another $8-$10 mil guy like Silva or Lohse. Add that to the what Crawford will make and you're adding like $20 MM in payroll for an upgrade in the OF and likely a downgrade in the pitching.

forgot about Ceda and Roquet, I'm sure those would interest the Rays as well.

"ESPN 1000 Bruce Levine is saying Cubs “are going after” Carl Crawford.:

Why? Crawford is easily one of the most 5 overated players in MLB. He has average power and for a speed guy he is too BA dependent for OBP. His defense is horrible if a guy that fast isnt playing in CF or RF there must be a problem. If was on a good team and not the Rays he would be thought of as a run of the mill guy.

“Multiple offers, multiple positions,” he said. “We’re going to send a message that we’re prepared to move forward and do deals sooner rather than later.”

Isn't that what Hendry has been doing for the last few years? It seems pretty successful in landing FA's. The key is to offer the contracts to the right FA's though...

I still think that the Coors effect is going to do in Holliday. I like Fielder.

My top 10 MVP would be:

Fielder
Utley
Holliday
Wright
Pujols
Ramirez
Jones
Rollins
Byrnes
Soriano

I have always had a real problem with one team getting multiple MVP votes, especially a team like the Marlins who weren't very good. It seems like everyone who you thought may have a good season for the Phillies did, so that may hurt them as well. Rollins not only became a 30-30 guy, but he was the 2nd guy in like a 100 years to go 20-20-20-20. Sandberg almost did it in '84.

Hopefully the PTBNL in the Monroe trade is Santana. lol. Does anybody have an idea as to what player the Cubs are going to get back in this one?

I don't get it. Trading Rich Hill and prospects for Carl Crawford?

We should have just kept JJ.

BP had this blurb on the Jones trade.

"While I like this deal more from the Cubs' perspective, it has some merits for the Tigers."

Sadly the rest is behind the wall.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

"well I wouldn’t call Gallagher, Epat or Wuertz junk…"

OK, maybe that was over the top. But if you were Tampa would you make that deal? Two guys who aren't established major leaguers and less-than-sure-things and one fairly marginal middle reliever?

I've seen Crawford play a little bit. He's a nice player and I'd like to see him with the Cubs. I would be hesitant, though, of giving up a Hill or Marmol (plus others) to get him. But I believe that's what it would take.

I don’t get it. Trading Rich Hill and prospects for Carl Crawford?

Its called a rumor. Don't assume that Rich Hill has been offered to the DRays.

I don't have a problem with guys whose OBP are "too dependant on their average" when they hit .300 every year. Crawford has hit .290 every year since '04. In that time, he has routinely been a .465 slugger.

JJ hasn't put up a line like that in a while. He hasn't hit .290 since 2003. He's suddenly turned into more of a .420 slugger, with '06 being the exception.

They are two players that have semi-similiar numbers in the last couple years, but are going in opposite directions.

I can see letting Marmol go for Crawford, but not Hill. To me the time is right to trade Marmol. He doesn't have a third pitch to be a successful starter, and he's not going to have a better season out of the bullpen than he did last year. Is he going to be the next F-Rod or Rivera? Possibly, but he could be the next Calvin Schiraldi or Brad Lidge.

Crawford will be starting next year at the ripe old age of 26 and is still likely to add some power and patience to his resume. He's a crazy good base stealer. Playing in a winning (fingers crossed) environment where he is a contributor to the offense, rather than the main focus may help his numbers as well. Not sure where the Cubs intend to play him. After two years of substandard arms in Right and Center, you would imagine bringing him in would mean that Soriano would have to move over to right, or back to center.

Its called a rumor

No kidding?!! A rumor? Who knew? Thanks for explaining that, dave.

But seriously, if we do go after Crawford I guess it's because he's a good fit to hit #2 behind Soriano, relieving Theriot of that burden. Crawford put up a nice ~.850 OPS on grass as well last season.

Paul Sullivan randomly throwing out names is far from a legitimate rumor.

As much as I'd like Crawford, I agree with Rob G. about Hill. You'd just be creating another hole to fill one, and it seems much harder to fill the pitching one in this market.

Also, Rob G., you were correct originally about the Jacque Jones signing bonus. According to the players union, his 2008 salary is $5 million, his prorated signing bonus is $1.33 for a total of $6.33 million due in 2008.

Subtract the $2 million that the Sun-Times reports is in the trade, and an estimated $1.5 million for Infante, that's a savings of $2.83 million.

I don't necessarily see it, but the thought of getting Fukudome and Crawford is interesting, and I don't think it's beyond ol' Jimmy. I definitely think now is the time to trade Pie (if not last year) because I don't see his bat getting too much better. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my gut feeling. I'd be curious to hear Az Phil weigh in on Pie's current standing...

That said, if I was going to Vegas I'd say the starting OF looks like Sori-Pie-Fuk at this point, but that's my two cents. Hendry obviously doth protest obviously too much, obviously about Fukudome, obviously.

And a cheap and studly Crawford a couple years ago would have probably been worth Hill and Marmol both, but now, not so much.

And Rob, great call on Sabathia.

Please explain: how does Calvin Schiraldi = Brad Lidge?

Sorry if this is 3/44, but did anyone else see the blurb at the bottom of this news article about the possible return dates of Prior and Guzman? How did the Cubs slip it past everyone that they're now expecting Prior back late in 2008? That means he will have needed over a year to recover from...arthroscopic surgery?! Is this for real?

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...

Calvin Schiraldi = Brad Lidge?

Once very good, historic post-season meltdown, then not very good.

OKay, so does anyone understand why the Cubs chose this time to activate Prior and Guzman? It seems a bit odd...

I think AZ Phil said previously you have to remove them from the DL prior to the Rule V draft. No reason to let it linger, but if Prior is going to be out most of '08, just release him now.

Actually, is it possible to get some sort of Cubster update on this?

As Real Neal said, you can't be on the 60-day DL in the off season. You must be on the 40-man roster or released before the rule V.

Jace — November 13, 2007 @ 2:12 pm
OKay, so does anyone understand why the Cubs chose this time to activate Prior and Guzman? It seems a bit odd…
........................................................................

They had to do it between now and 12/12. Maybe today was the day the Jim showed up at the office? Maybe he will be out of town on Vay-cay the next couple of weeks?

prior will certainly be a Non-Tender if he is out til late season. Unless he gets Craig Monroe'd or agree's to a 1 year "Jon Lieber 2003" type deal to rehab/come back in 2009. He could be this years Wade Miller.

"Is he going to be the next F-Rod"

He is known as K-Rod.

FWIW

What SAM FULD is doing this winter:

USA Training Center Thanksgiving workouts with Sam Fuld

NEWINGTON (NEW HAMPSHIRE)— USA Training Centers will have a Thanksgiving baseball workout featuring Chicago Cubs outfielder Sam Fuld from Nov. 23-25.

Ages 7-9 go from 9-11 a.m., ages 10-12 go from 12-2 p.m., ages 13-15 go from 2-4 p.m.

There will also be a Thanksgiving softball workout from Nov. 23-25. Ages 7-10 go from 9-11 a.m., ages 11-14 go from 12-2 p.m.

The cost for each clinic is $115 for members and $135 for non members. Register online at www.usatrainingcenters.com or call 603-431-6700.

I don't know what I think about all this. Is Jim taking out Fukudome insurance? Maybe have a tentative deal set up in case that falls through.

He better do something if he doesn't get Fukudome. Either that or REALLY believe in Matt Murton.

well I wouldn't count on reliable info from Muskat. It also seemed rather speculative on her part.

And yeah there's no 60-day DL during the offseason. Players have to take up a 40-man spot or be assigned to the minors.

Chad, cover your eyes.

Rob G,

Now that I think about it, I may have to take exception to dismissing wins, but then using WPA as a criteria for your Cy Young award. If wins are a stat which seem to be greatly influenced by run support, conversley WPA is going to be greatly influenced by a lack of run support. For instance, if you're up 5-0 in the 6th and pitch a scoreless inning, you'll get less WPA as a pitcher than if you're up 1-0 in the 6th and pitch a scoreless inning. In both cases the pitchers did the same thing, but WPA is going to greatly reward the pitcher in the second situation, even though, especially in the AL neither pitcher has contributed to the runs their own team put up. At least I think that's how it works.

I see that Sabathia won, which isn't too suprising. I think the innings probably pushed him over the top.

VORP for pitchers is essentially just some combination of innings/ ERA+.

OK, maybe that was over the top. But if you were Tampa would you make that deal? Two guys who aren’t established major leaguers and less-than-sure-things and one fairly marginal middle reliever?

probably not, but it depends on what the Rays are looking for and what their scouts think of those players.

it would fill a lot of holes on the team with major league ready players with plenty of service time left. But in the end, I have no idea what the Rays want or think Crawford is worth. I imagine they will hold out for a big name young pitcher but they should probably fill out their bullpen with as many young, power arms as they can find and get one or two decent starters.

Calvin Schiraldi = Brad Lidge?

Not really comparing apples to apples, here.

Schraldi has 21 saves his entire career. One good season in the majors, really. Lidge had one bad BATTER that is well-known, but much greater, consistent success, until 2006/2007.

Also, Rob G., you were correct originally about the Jacque Jones signing bonus. According to the players union, his 2008 salary is $5 million, his prorated signing bonus is $1.33 for a total of $6.33 million due in 2008.

I don't know, I know his contract is $5MM, but his signing bonus didn't necessarily have to be broken down evenly each year. I've seen a few reports say he was owed $5.5 MM in 2008, so I think it's very possible he was only owed a half million on that original $4MM bonus. Unless you have a link otherwise saying it was definitely divided evenly over the three years.

Thanks E-Man,

I had no idea, I never heard of those players before. I just did a google search on 'closers giving up big playoff homers' and they came up as the top two guys, after one particuarly sad story. I stand corrected, nice catch.

VORP for pitchers is essentially just some combination of innings/ ERA+

I got to imagine strikeouts are in that formula somewhere.

I listed WPA but I didn't factor it in much with the pitchers. But your example is exactly why you do want to look into WPA. They may have accomplished the same thing but accounting for the leverage of the moment has some merit.

I find WPA most useful for relievers to be honest, but I like throwing out new stats to educate the masses.

I like throwing out new stats to educate the masses.

ed·u·cate the masses (vb):
Pronunciation: [ej-oo-keyt thuh mās-iz]
Defintion: Confuse Chad

"I stand corrected, nice catch."

see Baseball-Reference.com for other interesting (to some) Schiraldi or Lidge successes and failures.

Schiraldi gave up a big HR in the WS, but also pitched a gem in the ALCS against the Cal Angels, getting the Sox to the WS.

Carl Crawford is over-rated? Wouldn't trade Rich Hill? Ehhhh Crawford isnt over-rated, and yes Rich Hill in a heartbeat for Crawford.

My fav stat to look at in hitters is RISP and RISP 2 outs. 2 big problem areas for our team hitting wise.

Crawford last 3 years with RISP
.331 BA - .928 OPS

RISP 2 outs - Usually hitters hit significantly worse
.330 BA - .965 OPS

All at the age of 26. He hasn't even peaked yet. Wouldnt it be nice to get in on the ground floor of a fantastic hitter and not get them when they are washed up?

from the "out of nowhere department". I was looking back at the 2003 draft. Look at the players we missed in the 1st round.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year...

Cubs were 2nd in BA with RISP last year, 7th though with RISP and 2 outs.

MLB average last year was .268 BA overall.

.272 BA with RISP
.249 with RISP and 2 outs.

Hey, you were half right...

Hill for Crawford would be fine if we had something to replace Hill with for the same price.

Damn, we could have had David Aardsma.

Hill for Crawford would be fine if we had something to replace Hill with for the same price.
......................................................................

Sean Marshall

only Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Hill, Jackson, Cordero, Billingsley, Barton and Quentin.

I don't see a problem....

And to think Harvey actually "dropped" to us. If they just went the college route they would have at least had Markakis who went the next pick to the O's.

Following up on #60, the 2nd round that year was chock full of the likes of Tony Gwynn Jr, Tom Gorzelanny, Ryan Sweeney, Scott Baker, Jason Hirsh, and Andre Ethier.

(err...#59)

Marshall's not as good as Hill....

doesn't strike people out and hasn't shown much of an ability to stay healthy.

(Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones and Adam Miller also went late in the 1st round that year)

Cubs must have signed somebody, they didn't have a 2nd round pick. Looks like a Brave....

ah, Remlinger...

On the other hand, I'd be happy to include Marshall in a deal for Crawford.

only thing that scares me about crawford is if pierre is worth 10m, multiyear...what's craw's price tag next year?

brandon wood, adam miller also

the thing that doesnt scare me about crawford is finally moving soriano out of the #1 slot...

I'd pretty much guarantee that Crawford would bat 2nd to break up the righties near the top of the order.

Fukodome may be more inlcined to sign with a West Coast team, especially with his stated preference for a mild weather climate. SF, for one, has the climate, money and interest.

So perhaps the Cubs see Crawford as the more attainable prize, and are pushing hard to make sure that they are not shut our completely.

probably...im just sick of soriano leading off...a 17m dollar leadoff man.

yeah, he's gonna move down as he ages or his legs dictate, but 33HR + 42 doubles for 70rbi's is a pathetic use of soriano. once his legs were hobbled dusty insisted on...wait, hold on...wrong overpaid old fat man. nevermind.

Crawford owed $5.25 M next year

2009 club option: 8.25 M with 2.5M buyout
2010 club option: $10M with 1.25 M buyout and could increase up to $11.5 M with some escalator clauses

up to $800,000 assignment bonus if traded

yeah, Soriano would probably have more RBI's in the leadoff spot if he didn't strike out or pop up most of the time runners were on-base.

snap. forgot about those club options. his price is gonna be $$$.

his "price" in trade, that is.

You've got to have some eggs to take that kid the Angels did with the 23rd pick of that '03 draft.

Fonzie also would have had more RBIs if he didn't miss 3 weeks with a torn quad
.
How about a little love for the guy -- he came back hurt and carried the team in Sept.

I will gladly take 7 more Septembers like that.

How about a little love for the guy — he came back hurt and carried the team in Sept.

"Carried?"

Soriano was good (.320/.354/.754), but he sure didn't do it alone.

Maybe you forgot about ARam (.287/.363/.594) and Lee's (.365/.431/.654) hot Septembers...

i got nothing but love for soriano...esp. in an era where people think arod is worth 30m.

still...42 doubles...33hr...70 rbi.

no, not happy with how that turned out. those are all rbi swings and 33 of those 70 rbi's was him doing for him. just a little more than 1/2 of his rbis took advantage of his power.

I wouldn't mind a circa 1985 Tricky Rickey as a $17 million leadoff man, but Soriano is probably better suited for batting #5 on the Cubs.

For the record -- Fonzie's Sept.:

BA = .320
OBP = .354
OPS = 1.108

2B = 11
HR = 14
RBI = 27

Yes, he is certain to drive us mad wih his lack of plate discipline, but there are not many players who can put up a month like that (the mighty Prince had 11HR ansd 22 RBI, and only 2 2B), with a division title on the line, playing on an injured leg.

Sounds like we've got the plot for 'The Natural 2".

284 runners were on base for Soriano when got up to bat, he only drove in 37 of them for a .13028 percentage. I think the average is around 16%-17%. If he just hits the average, that's 9 more RBI's right there. He also only played 135 games.

I don't know what the average #5 hitter should expect in terms of runners on base and the Cubs went through too many options for me to calculate.

Ramirez had 395 runner in front of him mostly in the 4 spot but he had Lee in front of him consistently. Let's conservatively say Soriano gets up with about 350 runners on in front of him. At 13% that's still only 45 RBI's on top of his homers for a total of 78. At 395, that's 51 runners brough in for a total of 84 RBI's.

That doesn't seem like that big a deal to me. 14 more RBI's.

Our top 3 #5 hitters and their OBI% (although not all in the 5 spot)
DeRosa .15657
Floyd .14938
Murton .09272

Dave-

"Carried" may have been an overstatement...but 14HR and 27 RBI in September translates to an annual pace of 84HR and 162RBI. Not too bad.

Again... Soriano had a helluva' month - but so did Lee and ARam. Soriano did not carry anyone alone in September.

Soriano's 2006 OBI% was .1392
2005: .16038
2004: .16237
2003: .14058

Driving runners in is not something he excels at, in a good year he's average and might hit 100 RBI's.

Hypothetically, if you could sign ARod for 8 years at $26M a year and trade ARam heads-up for your choice of Cain or Lincecum, would you do those deals?

Just curious about consensus, really.

I would, Arod's good for about 4 wins a year over Ramirez. I'd target Billingsley myself or someone else with 4-5 years of service time. That in turn would make Hill a nice trading chip.

Sorry, I don't know anything about Cain. Lincecum is an attractive pitcher, but I am not sure that I would trade A-ram straight up for him. If the question is "would you be happy with picking up A-Rod and Lincecum and losing only Ramirez?" my answer would have to be yes.

I wouldn't. It makes sense, but considering what he signed to stay here, it would be a huge betrayal to trade him like that. And, I just really like him.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071...

Cabrera saying he's dedicated to getting in better shape this off-season.

Ramirez has a full no trade clause also. Hendry hands those things out like candy.

Must be sick of all of the fat jokes.

Cue Manny...

Hendry doesn't give out candy, he hoards it...cause he's fat.

Cause he likes donuts...so I've heard.

Speaking of handing out candy, I just sent you a VERY lucrative trade offer. What was I thinking? Oh well, too late now.

I look in a bit. I'm assuming it involves Grady Sizemore and it's not happening.

You're not fun.

yeah, looked at it, thanks but no thanks.

Whatever. That's an awesome dealio.

an awesome dealio would be Soriano/Hanley for Sizemore/Drew.

Get back to me when you're ready to that one.

Pshaw...

you're obviously not willing to what it takes to win...except that you did win.

Chew on that one for awhile.

I said awesome dealio...you're proposing an awesome Joe violation, which isn't awesome to me.

I don't want to sit on my laurels. Whatever the hell that means.

Joe is sitting on his laurels... in Transmissions' pants...

I'm basically the Bizarro Cardinals.

My two cents:

Don't trade Hill or Marmol for Crawford. If they can do the deal with guys that didn't make huge contributions last year, then ok. That would mean Marshall, Cedeno and either Ceda or Wuertz. Marmol could continue to improve as he learns to pitch and Hill is just too valuable.

As for Carrie Muskat's comment about Prior in her press release-I can't help but wonder if that is the Cubs way of lowering his market value...

The Real Neal — November 13, 2007 @ 2:17 pm
I think AZ Phil said previously you have to remove them from the DL prior to the Rule V draft. No reason to let it linger, but if Prior is going to be out most of ‘08, just release him now.

=======================

REAL NEAL: Players on the 60-day DL must be reactivated no later than November 20th, when MLB and minor league reserve lists must be submitted to the MLB office.

ALLEN — November 13, 2007 @ 1:56 pm
Paul Sullivan randomly throwing out names is far from a legitimate rumor.

As much as I’d like Crawford, I agree with Rob G. about Hill. You’d just be creating another hole to fill one, and it seems much harder to fill the pitching one in this market.

Also, Rob G., you were correct originally about the Jacque Jones signing bonus. According to the players union, his 2008 salary is $5 million, his prorated signing bonus is $1.33 for a total of $6.33 million due in 2008.

Subtract the $2 million that the Sun-Times reports is in the trade, and an estimated $1.5 million for Infante, that’s a savings of $2.83 million.

=================================

ALLEN: Don't be fooled by the term "prorated signing bonus." A lot of people assume that when a signing bonus is paid, it's always automatically spread-out evenly over the length of the player's contract. Actually, the opposite is true.

MLB and the MLBPA use “prorated signing bonuses” to determine payroll for luxury tax/revenue sharing purposes. ALL signing bonuses are calculated this way for that purpose. This is mandated by the CBA. However, signing bonuses are normally paid in a lump sum at the time the player signs his contract, which is why it’s called a “signing bonus.”

For instance, over the past year, the Cubs have paid a total of $18M in signing bonuses to Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Zambrano. If these bonuses had been calculated into the Cubs 2007 payroll without “prorating” them over the length of the player’s contracts, the Cubs ‘07 payroll would have been around $125M and they could have been at risk for a luxury tax. But by being allowed to “prorate” the signing bonuses out over the length of the three players’ contracts, it only adds $3M to the Cubs “official” payroll each year for the next five seasons, and then $1M per season for the next three after that.

Although signing bonuses are usually paid in a lump sum when the player signs a contract, occasionally a club is given the option to pay a signing bonus as a "deferred bonus" over a period of time (like when a player selected in the Rule 4 Draft is given a major league contract and is placed on his club’s 40-man roster), and in the case of Jacque Jones, the Cubs were given the option to pay his $4M signing bonus anytime between January 2006 and January 2008, and it did not have to be paid in installments of $1.33M, either. It could have been paid in a lump sum, or in some other combination (TBD by the Cubs). So Jones' $4M signing bonus was a true signing bonus only if the Cubs paid it all in a lump sum in January 2006, but whatever wasn't paid immediately should be called more-accurately a "deferred bonus," not a "signing bonus."

Breaking news, fans.

Cesar Izturis's option declined by the Pirates. Bought out for $300,000.

Don't tell Jim.

But... he's a defensive wizard...

...

As for Carrie Muskat’s comment about Prior in her press release-I can’t help but wonder if that is the Cubs way of lowering his market value…

For the billionth time... the Cubs do not control cubs.com.

And how would announcing that Prior got moved off the 60-day DL to the 40 man roster (a mandatory move) lower his market value?

And

hmm... not sure how that extra "and" got there...

DAVE: I really like the extra "And" at the end of your comment. It added something extra, really made me think about what might have been. Kind of a Zen thing.

I suspect foul play.

Dave knew something. A representative of cubs.com "took care of him" and assumed his identity.

Check the IP addresses. That will lead us right to the killer.

And

*# Rob G. says:

November 13th, 2007 at 5:17 pm

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....;fext=.jsp

Cabrera saying he’s dedicated to getting in better shape this off-season.
*

Lies! I heard Crunch say that Cabrera was a fat piece of clubhouse cancer. And I believe Crunch.

"And how would announcing that Prior got moved off the 60-day DL to the 40 man roster (a mandatory move) lower his market value?

And"

I thought that her comment about Prior not being ready until late 2008 could be a way to keep teams away. Just a thought...

"for our Jewish friends…"

Thanks ROB G.

Interesting read!

"Lies! I heard Crunch say that Cabrera was a fat piece of clubhouse cancer. And I believe Crunch."

well aside from the fact that has nothing to do with what i said...hold on, havent we been through this before?

that thing where you made a stupid comment like that and i spelled out what i said and how you childish and off-mark your target is?

remember that?

1- that article proves he's out of shape
2- his attitude his marked and known
3- this will be offseason #3 he's made the pledge...let's see how it goes this time
4- remember that ozzie smith comment i made? he made a new one recently.
5- you're petty, ignorant, and can't take things not happening on your terms. this is the 2nd swipe you've made that doesn't have a good association. your "jokes" dont work when you gotta reach for others to pretend what you're saying is what i said.

"cabrera has a legitimately horrible attitude and lacks a work ethic. his natural ability will only take him so far until he’s in a position like d.ortiz (who doesnt have a horrible attitude) getting his joints/muscles pumped full of chemicals so he can actually play with the body he’s trying to lug around on his legs."

"he actually gained weight this season after showing up overweight for ST (for a second year in a row).

hell, even ozzie (a good friend of his) opened up on him about his training habits and body condition pre-season this year."

etc etc etc...

...in case anyone's wondering.

that's called substance and tact, blargh...backing up your point...etc.

once again, its not as simple and stupid as you attributed it.

“[Forget] the veterans,” he told the Post. “They haven’t told me anything and they better not come tell me anything, either.

“I don’t want to hear anything else. I want to play baseball, give what I have to give on the field of play, and win. That’s all I want. …

“Everyone here is a grown man,” he told the newspaper. “Everyone knows what he’s doing. And I’m not going to go crazy worrying about these things.”

…guess who said that.

guess who earned his own situation and reputation?

guess how much that has to do with me and how much it has to do with him.

and then check out the stupidity of doing very little about it seasons following…

The most worrying part about that Cabrerra quote to me is:

“Everyone here is a grown man,” he told the newspaper.

If he's holding a conversation with a newspaper, he probably has deeper problems than a slowing metabolism and an addiction to Cuban food.

*1- that article proves he’s out of shape
2- his attitude his marked and known
3- this will be offseason #3 he’s made the pledge…let’s see how it goes this time*

You know what, give me 7 more fat guys with bad attitudes who can throw up these numbers on average:
606 101 189 41 2 31 118 4 2 72 133 .313 .388 .542 143 328 1 6 16 6 20

And oh yeah, he's got a World Series ring.
And he's 24 or just turned 25.

But he's a fat tub and a blight on the game, because you and some newspaper reporter said so. A whole bunch of trustworty souls they are, right down to Phil Rogers and Mariotti--who would not simply trust what slugs like these have to say?

So sure, let the Cubs go and acquire some proven winners like Kaz Matsui and this Fukudome guy or a few more schlubs who hit. 270 with no power. Yee-ha.

*4- remember that ozzie smith comment i made? he made a new one recently.*

Ozzie Smith's been talking about Cabrera?
That must be true, because you typed it and you are never wrong.

And Ozzie Guillen has never been one to just pop off for no reason, right? Always has his head squarely on his shoulders, that one.

"You know what, give me 7 more fat guys with bad attitudes who can throw up these numbers on average"

well, that's not what im talking about. i could care less what you want, but that dont make what i said untrue. in fact one has nothing to do with the other.

"Ozzie Smith’s been talking about Cabrera?
That must be true, because you typed it and you are never wrong."

well, want some quotes? there's preseason diatribe against him and there's one from a week ago both coming down on him for his worth ethic and attidude.

ozzie and cabrerra are friends...when stuff like this happens people usually refer to it as an intervention and interventions are usually one of the last steps a person takes when theyre sick of their self-destructive lifestyle.

here's one: "I'm a little upset with him," Guillen said last June. "You're still young. You're going to keep getting bigger. He knows he's got a problem. We talked about it ... When you're young and good, you can get away with a lot of stuff. When you're getting older and you go down, they say you're fat."

want more?

all this flamable straw all over the place. i prove my point and you wanna talk about anything but the point so you can somehow find a "win" that has everything to do with me and you and nothing to do with what i brought up.

"Phil Rogers and Mariotti"

give me their quotes on cab. while you're at it.

seems like you're blindly throwing out crap to see if it sticks.

sure is a lot easier than actually doing research or knowing what you're talking about. instead of spending time on what you got vs. me how about putting a little muscle behind your counterpoints that have to do with what cabrerra's reality is instead of being so upset with me that you wanna pretend cabrerra's reality isnt real.

"yeah, Soriano would probably have more RBI’s in the leadoff spot if he didn’t strike out or pop up most of the time runners were on-base."

I thought I was the only one who noticed this. His Sept numbers were good because he probably hit a few 2 or 3-run shots or he got up with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs and crushed a mamoth(?) shot to the back of the warning track.

I like Fonz and enjoy watching him, just not when the games on the line.

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