Clark Knows When to Fuld Him

Sam Fuld played only three innings and went 1-2 with a SB and a run score, as the Cubs outfielder completed his AFL season today. With today's game the last AFL tilt for the Mesa Solar Sox, manager Dave Clark (HOU) let Fuld hit twice to get his batting average up over .400, and then gave the likely AFL MVP the rest of the day off, as the Solar Sox defeated the Peoria Saguaros 6-5 at HoHoKam Park in Mesa. Fuld finished the AFL season hitting 402/492/626, leading the AFL in hits, doubles, OBP, SLG, and OPS (minimum seven games for OBP, SLG, and OPS), as well as finishing 2nd in AVG, tied for third in walks and runs scored, tied for 4th in stolen bases, and tied for 5th in triples. Fuld also showed improved HR power, belting three round-trippers and driving in 14 runs in 29 games (125 PA). He reached base in 28 of his 29 games and hit safely in 25 of 29, while playing a Gold Glove quality defense in both CF and RF. A left-handed hitter, Fuld hit .500 with a 1.286 OPS in 35 AFL plate appearances versus LHP. He also had more walks (17) than strikeouts (15). Additionally, Fuld received the 2007 Dernell Stenson Award last night, presented each year to the AFL player who best exemplifies sportsmanship and leadership. After seeing a couple of dozen AFL games, here is my 2007 ALL-AFL TEAM: P - Matt Harrison (TEX) C - Jeff Clement (SEA) 1B - Juan Miranda (NYY) 2B - Eugenio Velez (SF) 3B - Evan Longoria (TB) SS - Scott Sizemore (DET) LF - Travis Snider (TOR) CF - Andrew McCutchen (PIT) RF - Sam Fuld (CUBS) DH - Matt LaPorta (MIL) MVP: Sam Fuld (nobody else even close)
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Comments

Phil - what type of effect does a AFL performance like Fuld's have on a players trade value?

AZ Phil,

Thanks for all the great work.

A few questions:

1. What does this mean for Fuld's standing in the organization? Do Fuld and Pie battle it out for "CF of the Future"? Does one of the them play RF? Does one of them get traded?

2. As for the other position players, the stats seem to say that Lansford (.257/.309/.324), Simokaitis (.172/.274/.266) and Clevenger (.200/.250/.267 in only 15 ABs) were overmatched. What's your take?

3. How encouraged should we be by Gallagher's line: 16 IP, 12 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 13 K; 0-0, 1.13 ERA?

4. Should we be discouraged by Avery (5.23 ERA) and Roquet's (8.44 ERA; 5.1 IP) performance?

5. Do they have Klondike bars in the desert? And if so, what would you do for one?

rock on,

ROMERO

Thanks Phil. I wouldn't be surprised if teams didn't start paying you for your information...

As for Fuld, I think if he's not at least a 4th outfielder the Cubs lose a valuable intangible that Theriot and (for awhile) Fontentot brought to the table. The energy of youth and competition. It seemed to carry over to all our call-ups-Hart, Soto, Petrick, etc..It was what I liked best about last years' team.

SCRAPPY

Via rotoworld...the Cubs may be willing to get close to 3yr/14.4 for Kaz Matsui...ouch

Little Nate Lewis — November 15, 2007 @ 9:24 pm
Phil - what type of effect does a AFL performance like Fuld’s have on a players trade value?

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NATE: About 20-25 scouts attend every AFL game, and so the players are scrutanized like at no other time. Rule 5 eligible players who play well in the AFL who are left off 40-man rosters are frequently targeted in the Rule 5 Draft.

The thing about Sam Fuld is that he does everything well. He's not just some nice guy crappy-scrappy player who hustles and tries hard. He is a plus defender with an above-average arm, he's a smart base-runner and a good base-stealer, he's a good hitter who will work the count and take a walk, and he can handle LHP with no problem. He also showed improved HR power in the AFL, hitting three homers in the large Arizona ST parks where there are no "cheap" home runs.

The biggest negative about Sam Fuld is that he appears to be injury-prone, probably because he plays TOO hard. He plays full-tilt all the time, and in three of the last four seasons, Fuld has missed sizable chunks of playing time with injuries (torn labrum, broken wrist, sports hernia, and strained oblique).

If the Cubs don't want Fuld, I'm sure there are at least a half-dozen MLB clubs (maybe more) who would gladly take him, sticking him in CF and hitting him in the lead-off slot. The Florida Marlins, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins, and Baltimore Orioles are the most-obvious possible destinations, and if the Cubs are interested in Miguel Tejada (and I believe the Orioles are more than ready to trade him), and what with ex-Cubs Andy MacPhail, John Stockstill, Dave Trembley, and Alan Dunn now in Baltimore, I would think Wrigley Field would be the most-likely destination for Miggy, just because the Baltimore Cubs would probably be anxious to get their hands on Fuld, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall, and Eric Patterson. Whether Hendry would be interested in Tejada, I don't know.

Romero — November 15, 2007 @ 10:34 pm
AZ Phil,

1. What does this mean for Fuld’s standing in the organization? Do Fuld and Pie battle it out for “CF of the Future”? Does one of the them play RF? Does one of them get traded?

2. As for the other position players, the stats seem to say that Lansford (.257/.309/.324), Simokaitis (.172/.274/.266) and Clevenger (.200/.250/.267 in only 15 ABs) were overmatched. What’s your take?

3. How encouraged should we be by Gallagher’s line: 16 IP, 12 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 13 K; 0-0, 1.13 ERA?

4. Should we be discouraged by Avery (5.23 ERA) and Roquet’s (8.44 ERA; 5.1 IP) performance?

5. Do they have Klondike bars in the desert? And if so, what would you do for one?

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ROMERO:

1. I would think Fuld's performance in the AFL has enhanced his standing in the organization. But here's the thing... While Fuld was drafted twice by the Cubs (once in 2003 when he did not sign, and then again in the 2004 when he did), that was under the John Stockstill scouting regime. So Fuld's biggest in-house backer is now in Baltimore. And the way Hendry operates, I'm not so sure that the Cubs won't trade Fuld this off season and commit to playing Felix Pie and Omar Infante in CF 2008.

2. Clevenger and Simokaitis were definitely over-matched at the plate. Clevenger moreso because he had never played higher than A+, and Simokaitis just because he is a lousy hitter

For a player who missed the last two months of the 2007 season with a knee injury who had never played above Peoria, I thought Lansford actually handled himself OK at the plate and in the field in the AFL. He's an above-average defensive third-baseman, certainly the best 3B defender in the Cubs organization. The big problem with Lansford is that for a big guy, he lacks power, and he's getting to the point where he needs to develop that part of his game. He's also a slow runner. So If he doesn't start to drive some XBH, no matter how well he plays in the field, he'll never get out of AA.

3. In his one-inning appearances, Gallagher's fastball was clocked consistemtly at 93-95. Also, his curve and slider looked great. The opposing scouts LOVE Gallagher as either a starter or as a reliever. BTW, Gallagher's innings were held down not because he isn't projected as a potential MLB rotation starter, but rather because he wasn't actually supposed to even throw in the AFL. He was a last-minute replacement for Grant Johnson, who was shut-down with a sore shoulder just prior to the Southern League playoffs in September. ((Johnsoin is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, and the Cubs were hoping to get a better "reading" on Johnson before deciding whether to add him to their 40-man roster).

4. Matt Avery has a sweeping curve and an average fastball. He likely will be the closer at AA in 2008, but projects as no more than an MLB middle-reliever. I thought he was somewhat overmatched in the AFL.

Roquet was pitching with a sports hernia that eventually required surgery. In his first AFL outing (before his injury) he was throwing a 97 MPH fastball and an 83 MPH slider. If healthy, Roquet should be the closer at Iowa in 2008. And unlike Avery, Roquet probably projects as a future MLB late-inning reliever (set-up man or closer).

You didn't mention Justin Berg, but he has MAJOR command problems. He has a nice hard slider/sinker combo that would tend to lend itself well to middle relief in MLB, but he has all kinds of problems throwing strikes, such that he consistently gets behind on hitters, and then he has to come in with a fat pitch. He got smoked pretty good again yesterday, too (five runs in one-plus inning). His release point is all over the place. He's a mess.

5. Yes, we have Klondike bars in the desert, but they melt VERY fast. You can't milk 'em.

According to the Denver Post, Jimbo COULD offer a SIMLIAR deal to the 14.5/3 that Torrelba got.

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_7476366

Dero's deal should be the max offer to Kaz.

Az Phil: I realize Billy Petrick didn't play in the AzFL probably because they are cautious with his injury history, but he did get some nice experience at the ML level last year. Who do you think has a better chance of "arriving" in the majors next year, Gallagher or Petrick.

(I'm not sure if Petrick is injured again, so maybe you can clear that up for me)

cubster — November 16, 2007 @ 10:07 am
Az Phil: I realize Billy Petrick didn’t play in the AzFL probably because they are cautious with his injury history, but he did get some nice experience at the ML level last year. Who do you think has a better chance of “arriving” in the majors next year, Gallagher or Petrick.

(I’m not sure if Petrick is injured again, so maybe you can clear that up for me)

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CUBSTER: Billy Petrick was shut-down just for precautionary reasons, but he should be OK in 2008. If he had been 100% in August when the Cubs submitted their list of players to the AFL, Petrick probably would have been on the list.

I would think Sean Gallagher is in front of Petrick on the Cubs 2008 bullpen depth chart right now.

Wouldnt it make more sense to keep Gallagher stretched out in case a starter is needed?

I thought Gallagher was being used as a long man last year, but I agree with aaronb; he'd be much more valuable to us as a starter.

Dr. aaronb — November 16, 2007 @ 10:23 am
Wouldnt it make more sense to keep Gallagher stretched out in case a starter is needed?

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DR AARON B: Although Sean Gallagher will almost certainly eventually be an MLB rotation starter, I believe the Cubs will give Gallagher a chance to win an MLB bullpen job in 2008. Same goes for Kevin Hart.

If Gallagher and/or Hart fail to make the Cubs Opening Day bullpen, they would be used as rotation starters at Iowa. Same goes for Sean Marshall if he fails to win a starting job in ST.

Probably the only way Gallagher, Hart, and/or Marshall end up in the Cubs starting rotation in 2008 is in the event of an injury to one of the five starters (Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, and Dempster), or if one or two or three of the current five starters gets traded.

So wait a minute. This Dempster as starter thing is REALLY going to happen? Are we sure it's not just some trickery by Hendry?

Moving Dempster to the rotation seems stupid to me. Just so they can overpay to bring in another "proven vet" reliever? why create the hole? Why overpay for Kaz Matsui? If you are dead set on bringing in new guys, is there a rule against bringing in good guys that can actually make a difference?

Sheffield/Cornelia — November 16, 2007 @ 10:46 am
So wait a minute. This Dempster as starter thing is REALLY going to happen? Are we sure it’s not just some trickery by Hendry?

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SHEFF: Moving Ryan Dempster to the starting rotation is something Lou Piniella talked about doing last season, just before Carlos Marmol and Angel Guzman were moved to the bullpen.

I'm not saying that Demp SHOULD be a starter, but if he remains with the Cubs, it will probably be as a rotation starter.

From Dempster's POV, being a rotation starter in 2008 is not a good thing. He'll be making $5.5M whether he starts or relieves, but if he is a starting pitcher he would have no opportunity to reach his $800K in performance bonuses that are tied to him being a closer.

So if I had to guess, I would say the Cubs are actively trying to trade both Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster, with Dempster going someplace where he can remain a closer.

Dr. aaronb — November 16, 2007 @ 10:50 am
Moving Dempster to the rotation seems stupid to me. Just so they can overpay to bring in another “proven vet” reliever? why create the hole? Why overpay for Kaz Matsui? If you are dead set on bringing in new guys, is there a rule against bringing in good guys that can actually make a difference?

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DR AARON B: I doubt that Jim Hendry could give you logical answers to those questions.

carmenfanzone — November 15, 2007 @ 10:45 pm

As for Fuld, I think if he’s not at least a 4th outfielder the Cubs lose a valuable intangible that Theriot and (for awhile) Fontentot brought to the table. The energy of youth and competition. It seemed to carry over to all our call-ups-Hart, Soto, Petrick, etc..It was what I liked best about last years’ team.

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CARMEN F: The thing about prospects is that in "A" ball (Daytona, Peoria, Boise, AZL Mesa, DSL Cubs, and VSL Cubs/Twins), it's really all about potential, ceiling, and tools.

But once a player gets to AA and (especially) AAA, even for players who play well in the AFL or Latin winter leagues or who are AA or AAA all-stars, it becomes much more about performance than potential, and being ready, willing, and able to perform at the major league level when the opportunity presents itself.

For players at the AA and AAA level, MLB opportunities can knock in different ways. It might be a Wally Pipp Moment (getting a chance to replace a player who sustains a mid-season injury), or a Cesar Izturis Thing (where a desperate manager turns to the utility middle-infielder when his starting SS fails to perform up to expectations), or the Gary Scott Syndrome (ultra-hot Spring Training where a young player appears to be the answer).

Carlos Marmol, Ryan Theriot and Geovany Soto (and, to a lesser extent, Mike Fontenot) were ready when opportunity knocked last season. They got their chance, and ran with it. Both Felix Pie and Sam Fuld (presuming neither is traded) should have an opportunity to win the CF job and run with it in Spring Training. It's all a matter of being prepared, and then (most importantly) just doing it... ON THE FIELD.

Potential, ceiling, and tools mean nothing to a veteran MLB manager like Lou Piniella. He only cares about results. And as of right now, even though Felix Pie has more potential and a higher "ceiling," I would say Sam Fuld is a lot more likely to produce ON THE FIELD at the major league level in 2008 than is Felix Pie, and so Fuld is more-likely to win the Cubs CF job in Spring Training (if he doesn't get traded).

"Potential means nothing to a veteran MLB manager like Lou Piniella. He only cares about results."

Yes, but I do think the young players added an intangible-be it energy, hope, what have you, that I think was lacking in the Cubs organization the past 40 years or so (at least my lifetime).

For those of you that have seen my posts, I like to "think out loud" sometimes I like to brainstorm-throwing some shit at the wall and seeing what sticks.

So here is shit that I'll throw at the wall-insprired by Phil's analysis of the Baltimore organization:

Marshall
Gallagher
Cedeno
Murton
Epat

for

Bedard
Tejada

Is that possible? I did read where McPhail would consider dealing Bedard and I think amid the steroid investigation that Tejada could be had. That said, we'd be giving them 2 starters, a starting shortstop, a leftfielder and leftfielder/centerfielder. Is that too much or does it constitue a bunch of our junk for some of their gold?

Brainstorm #2. I read where Billy Beane may be ready to revamp the entire Oakland team. Would you go after Nick Swisher and Bobby Crosby in a similar deal-several major league ready players for two veterans?

Swisher would be a nice pickup, but I don't think that Crosby would be an attractive option. He does not appear to be anything that Cedeno and Theriot are not....

CARMEN F: I suspect Peter Angelos hired Andy MacPhail to be GM of the Orioles because of what MacPhail accomplished in Minnesota, not because of what he did in Chicago.

And with ex-Cubs guys like MacPhail, Stockstill, and Trembley now running the Orioles (and with ex-Cubs minor league pitching coordinator Alan Dunn the O's bullpen coach), I would think that when they look to make a deal, that the Cubs would be a natural place to look because the Orioles "braintrust" know Cubs prospects best.

You may remember that Dallas Green did that when he became GM of the Cubs, ripping off the Phillies for their better young MLB-ready guys (most notably Ryne Sandberg, Keith Moreland, Bob Dernier, and Dickie Noles) whenever he had the chance.

MacPhail has already acquired Scott Moore, Rocky Cherry, and Jake Renshaw (who was a personal favorite of Alan Dunn) for Steve Trachsel, and I would not be at all surprised if the O's wouldn't like to acquire a bunch more young Cubs.

MacPhail probably considers Miguel Tejada to be a major payroill millstone right now, and as long as Hendry is willing to take back most-all of Tejada's salary (while giving back young MLB-ready guys like Cedeno, Fuld, and Marshall), I would think MacPhail would be all over that deal. Adding Bedard would probably cost the Cubs Rich Hill (or Carlos Marmol and Sean Gallagher), plus Eric Patterson.

#19 sounds really probable Carmen. The only caviate is tha Lou seems really hung up on Lefty/Righty. I have a feeling alot of the Dempster to the rotation stuff is to keep out of the 3 lefties in the rotation situation. If I were Hendry, I make that deal.

Also would want Balitmore to include Huff. Then Lou could have his Lefty hitting Rfer. Baltimore would surely oblidge the salary dump. All the more Beans for McFail to count.

O's brought up Kershaw, Loney and Kemp to the Dodgers when talking about Bedard. Probably going to have to shoot a bit higher than that package in comment #19. Mets are saving their prospects for an ace starters (Gomez, Milledge, Humber, Pelfrey, 2 other guys I can't remember)...

Bedard's going to be pretty costly, very costly.

And Dempster said he prefers to start and wanted to move to the rotation.

Dempster can go anwhere he wants after the season and start. 2008 he is under contract with the cubs and will have to fill whatever role they choose for him. He signed that contract as a reliever.

oh yeah, my point about Dempster was AZ Phil saying he'd probably prefer to close for the 800,000 in potential incentives but Dempster is the one who said he'd prefer to start. Dempster also said he'd do whatever they want of him and would be fine with staying in bullpen as well.

Rob G. — November 16, 2007 @ 12:30 pm
oh yeah, my point about Dempster was AZ Phil saying he’d probably prefer to close for the 800,000 in potential incentives but Dempster is the one who said he’d prefer to start. Dempster also said he’d do whatever they want of him and would be fine with staying in bullpen as well.

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ROB G: I know what Ryan Dempster has said, but all I was saying was that if he wants a chance to earn his $800K in potential performance bonuses in 2008, he can't get there as a starter. If he doesn't care about the $800K, then (obviously) he would have no problem being a rotation starter.

It just seems like it creates a new hole moving Dempster to the Rotation. Just my opinion.

Dr. aaronb — November 16, 2007 @ 12:10 pm
Also would want Balitmore to include Huff. Then Lou could have his Lefty hitting Rfer. Baltimore would surely oblidge the salary dump. All the more Beans for McFail to count.

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DR AARON B: Even if Eric Bedard (who is eligible for salary arbitration coming off a season where he made $3.4M) is not part of a possible deal, I can't see Hendry taking back $42M in salaries ($21M per season) over the years 2008-09 PLUS giving up a load of MLB-ready prospects to get Tejada and Huff. Take back Tejada's $26M contract ($13M per year 2008-09)? Maybe. But not Huff's $16M ($8M per season).

With Huff getting $16M ($8M per seson) through 2009, I would think if the Cubs wanted to acquire both Tejada and Huff, that the Tejada part of it would be the "salary dump" for MLB-ready players (with the Cubs being on the hook for the $26M in remaining salary 2008-09), but the Huff part of the deal would probably have to be more of a "salary-exchange," possibly for somebody like RHP Jason Marquis (who makes $16.25 over 2008-09, which is just about exactly what Huff makes 2008-09).

I figured Huff would need to be included to fill the hole in RF. If you trade Murton in Scenerio 19 someone will have to be brought in to play Right. 8 million of Huff is still presumably cheaper than K-Fuk or Jenkins. I don't see The Ward-o-saurus being able to handle the job.

"It just seems like it creates a new hole moving Dempster to the Rotation. Just my opinion."

While it may create a hole, IMO it is not that big of a hole.

C- Soto,Blanco
1b- Dlee, Ward
2b- DeRosa,Godenot
Ss- Tejada,Theriot
3b- Aram
OF- Sori,Fuld,Pie,Huff

Z
Bedard
Lilly
Hill
Dempster

Marmol
Howry
Eyre
Ohman
Wuertz
Mateo?
Petrick?

I say yes. Make the call Jimmy

AARON B: Huff platooning with Murton in RF 2008-09 would seem to be the type of short-term solution Hendry tends to like. If Hendry is indeed kicking the tires on Geoff Jenkins, then Aubrey Huff would probably be acceptablre to him, too, since Huff and Jenkins are (in many ways) similar-type players (although Huff hasn't played any OF since 2006).

well since he already said he prefers to start ( (twice now, once during the season and when the move was announced) ) I think it's safe to assume he doesn't care about that potential bonus money. And Lou and Hendry don't seem very interested in him being closer anymore as is...

Is Kaz suppose to be the lefty bench bat with speed that Hendry mentioned the other day? I can't imagine he'd sign somewhere to be a bench guy. Which means he's going to start at SS (most likely) or 2B and that does very little to nothing to help our team except waste money.

Epatt
Marshall
Murton
Cedeno
Gallagher
Marquis
Colvin

for

Bedard
Tejada
Huff

I agree on Kaz, Rob

Hendry never seems to grasp the concept of budgeting. Instead he overpays for guys who fill spots that should be reserved for ML vets with minimum pay. Save the money for the difference makers.

1. I'd be worried about putting Huff in right field for 100 games a year, so I'd prefer Jenkins of the two. Both could be part of a useful platoon with Murton if Lou sticks to it. One plus of Jenkins is that he is not a type A or B free agent, so he would not cost a draft pick to sign. I kinda think that this is Hendry's "Plan B" if he does not sign Fukudome.

2. Omar Infante's career numbers in Camden Yards:

.313/.377 /.542

Enough to pull the wool over their eyes?

The bottom line is, if Hendry wants Miguel Tejada, I'm sure something can be "worked out," Tejada is almost certainly up on the trading block as MacPhail tries to rebuild.

My main concern about Tejada is that while he is only 31 and still appears to be a reasonably-productive offensive player (although he did show some decline in 2007), how much longer can he play SS?

My favorite Dickie Noles quote: "I can drink a case of beer and not be drunk."

hopefully 2 more years AZ Phil... :)

anyone else amused with McPhail pulling out the always successful "bash the players before I deal them" strategy?

For some reason he felt it was necessary to state that Miggy really can't handle SS defensively anymore and now he's getting worse offers than he did during the season for him.

I think we've seen that plan work to perfection a few times for us as well.

aaronb,

I don't think the O's would trade both Bedard and Tejada. They shopped both of them at the GM meetings and coming out of it, reports are that they are working on extending Bedard and paying for that by trading away Tejada's salary.

I do expect Aubrey "Love Sponge" Huff to be traded and for peanuts. Not for painting a porn star, but for calling Baltimore a "horse $@#% city" on the radio. Fans in Baltimore like to think that the players actually like to live there and will stay there after they retire, and when they don't get that vibe (e.g., Albert Belle...Robby Alomar), the Baltimore fans turn quickly.

My main concern about Tejada is that while he is only 31 and still appears to be a reasonably-productive offensive player (although he did show some decline in 2007), how much longer can he play SS?
....................................................................

He would constitute an upgrade if he had to move to 2nd as well. He surely isnt any worse than Matsui was at SS.

Dr. aaronb — November 16, 2007 @ 12:55 pm
Epatt
Marshall
Murton
Cedeno
Gallagher
Marquis
Colvin

for

Bedard
Tejada
Huff

========================

AARON B:

FOR TEJADA:
Marshall
Cedeno
Fuld
And Cubs pay 100% of Tejada's salary 2008-09 ($13M per season)

FOR BEDARD:
Hill
E. Patterson
Veal

And then also Marquis for Huff in what would be a salary-exchange. .

think we’ve seen that plan work to perfection a few times for us as well.
...........................................................................

His next move is the pattented Hatchet job in the local Newspaper featuring "Anonymous" sources in the Orioles organization. If the fans turn on a player. McFail doesnt get flack when he gets .60 cents on the dollar when he trades the player.

tejada has a lot of issues with people not seeing him as a SS anymore. could see him playing 3rd for someone in trade.

could play SS for someone in trade, but for who?

maybe the cubs if they strike out (not a pun) on the RF chase for a bigger bat, but if kaz comes onboard it doesnt look likely.

fwiw...as of july-sept last year according to tejada (brought about by LAD trade inquiries) he has no desire whatsoever to play anything but SS...so well...yeah.

44, I make that trade if I am Hendry, of course there isnt a need for Huff if Murton isnt included.

maybe the cubs if they strike out (not a pun) on the RF chase for a bigger bat, but if kaz comes onboard it doesnt look likely.
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Which is why the early pursuit of Matsui makes so little sense. He is the epitome of the type of player you get as a "Plan C". You paint yourself into a roster/financial corner when you fill in the finite details before you decide what is for dinner.

Any truth to the rumor that Jim Hendry put New Carpeting in a house without a roof?

even if the O's would be willing to take that package for Bedard, they'd get better offers from the Dodgers and Mets in all likelihood (to name two teams). Unless the Dodgers spend their prospects on fat Miggy.

my guess be that Jimbo will forever go for the defensive-first shortstop since Nomar didn't work out. He seems to have this chip that the team has to put a good glove there.

Defensive metrics are often flim-flam, but "Runs Above Average" metric used at Baseball Prospectus shows that Tejada did take a step backwards this last season. Over his career had been close to an average major league shortstop but in 2007 he dipped to a -15 in 124 games.

Theriot was -7 in 108 games at SS, so slightly better than Miggy. Kaz Matsui didn't play enough SS to warrant attention but he was slightly above average (+5 in 110 games) when he played there for the Mets in 2004.

AZ Phil, I don't think Tejada will command that high a price (Marshall, Cedeno and Fuld). Taking $13M off the books is priority #1 for Baltimore and it was reported in the Baltimore Sun that the offers they have gotten so far for Tejada are substantially lower than the offers they received for Tejada prior to the trading deadline. I pretty much think that Marshall or Gallagher plus Cedeno (or in my dream of dreams, Infante) would do it.

Rob G. — November 16, 2007 @ 1:31 pm
even if the O’s would be willing to take that package for Bedard, they’d get better offers from the Dodgers and Mets in all likelihood (to name two teams). Unless the Dodgers spend their prospects on fat Miggy.

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ROB G: I'm considering that we're talking about the Baltimore Cubs here (see my Dallas Green reference in comment #22), where MacPhail's relationship with Hendry and the MacPhail/Stockstill/TembleyDunn influence would tend to automaticaly make Cubs prospects appear,more attractive to them.

Neifi and Izturis are available

"“Runs Above Average” metric used at Baseball Prospectus shows that Tejada did take a step backwards this last season."

heck, just watching him the last 2 years...last year especially...he was soooooooooooo slow. so so so slow.

it really destroyed his value at the deadline and his reservations about playing 3rd for another team (he wasnt a dick as far as I can tell and said he would eventually move to 3rd if baltimore wanted...just not now) kinda left him untraded.

couple years ago he had that "palmeiro said WHAT?" thing...

I thought Marshall, Cedeno, Fuld was a pretty cheap package for Miggy...ah what do I know..

Rob G. — November 16, 2007 @ 1:41 pm
I thought Marshall, Cedeno, Fuld was a pretty cheap package for Miggy…ah what do I know..
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Especially taking into account what Jimbo gave them for The corpse of Steve Trachsel

this is probably old, but a nice little video on Banks hitting #500 on the front of cubs.com

DC Tom — November 16, 2007 @ 1:36 pm

AZ Phil, I don’t think Tejada will command that high a price (Marshall, Cedeno and Fuld). Taking $13M off the books is priority #1 for Baltimore and it was reported in the Baltimore Sun that the offers they have gotten so far for Tejada are substantially lower than the offers they received for Tejada prior to the trading deadline. I pretty much think that Marshall or Gallagher plus Cedeno (or in my dream of dreams, Infante) would do it.

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DC TOM: Yes, but the present relationship between the Cubs and Orioles (Scott Moore, Rocky Cherry, and Jake Renshaw for Steve Trachsel?!?) is bizarre and confusing, or even possibly perverse. Logic and rational thinking go way, WAY out the window when Hendry meets MacPhail.

I really believe there are influences in the Orioles organization right now (like MacPhail, Stockstill, Trembley, and Dunn) that are lusting after MLB-ready Cubs players who were signed and developed while they were there, such that it would tend to alter what might seem like a reasonable price (to you and me) for a certain player.

So the Cubs could end up OVER-paying for Tejada, while UNDER-paying for Bedard. For instance, Rich Hill was drafted by John Stockstill, and Hill credits Alan Dunn for turning his career around, so I'm sure Stockstill and Dunn would love to see Hill come to Baltimore, maybe even if it means trading Eric Bedard to get him.

really believe there are influences in the Orioles organization right now (like MacPhail, Stockstill, Trembley, and Dunn) that are lusting after MLB-ready Cubs players drafted and developed while they were there, such that it would tend to alter what might seem like a reasonable price (to you and me) for a certain player.
.....................................................................

They are lusting after them so that they may again block their paths with more 3rd tier free agents and Veteran flotsam. McFail is really cruel that way

sorry AZ Phil, I don't buy it. O's got a steal in the Trax deal, yet you're proposing they would potentially take a lesser package of Cubs players for Bedard than they could probably get from another team.

*Rob G. says:

November 16th, 2007 at 1:50 pm

this is probably old, but a nice little video on Banks hitting #500 on the front of cubs.com
*

OH yeah, that is old...at least 40 years old.

In other news:

Miguel Tejada=no. Probably will soon be busted for HGH anyway. Another SS [like Nomar] that should've been had 4 or 5 years before the Cubs entertained the idea.

Kaz Matsui=no. The only way this dude should ever see a check with 14 mil on it is if he wins the lottery.

Trading away any starting pitching for a package of average/washed-up vets=NO. Why are people so ready to trade away young starting pitching? How long have they been fans? Apparently not long enough to remember those wonderful seasons where 3 or 4/5 of the starting rotation goes on the DL.

So Tejada isnt an upgrade from Theriot?

Why in the world would we spend anything for Matsui.
So he's quick and can run a little. So who cares. So can a bunch of other guys who will be available on the cheap via free agency. So he hit a little in Colorado. Who doesn't?

I know this is a Cubs place, but as a Cubs fan and a baseball fan I just wanted to express my condolences to the Reds fans on the loss of announcer and former reds pitcher, Joe Nuxhall. Joe was a cool guy, much like Ron Santo, a homer, but a good one, and a fun announcer.

I second that Mike Vail.

RIP Nuxie.

somewhere down in the threads was my personal case for not minding k.matsui.

of course a lotta that hinges on him being a 2-4m signing...not a 5m guy, but whatever. he's got some things he's really consistant with. he can hit a variety of breaking stuff (vulnerable to the slider, but handles change/curve/etc. well). can hit everything in the zone (esp. inside and low) but has issues with the high fastball. solid D with a good head for the middle IF.

still, he's pretty much a singles hitting speedster with good D. nothing special...nothing harmful...imo.

i dont think its even a remotely necessary move even if they plan on starting him. he may be a step up from cedeno as far as polish goes, but him and theriot aren't that far apart in skills.

and he's japanese

"..solid D with a good head for the middle IF."

At one position. 2B. We have a guy like that already. Maybe two.

a lefty too..

Eman,

Kaz was a shortstop in Japan and his first year with the Mets.

Good range, lots of errors.

Seriously, does anyone think Hendry would be looking at Matsui if he didnt have a good postseason? If he wasnt in the WS would Hendry even know who he was? I have real doubts.

AZ Phil wrote:

DC TOM: Yes, but the present relationship between the Cubs and Orioles (Scott Moore, Rocky Cherry, and Jake Renshaw for Steve Trachsel?!?) is bizarre and confusing, or even possibly perverse. Logic and rational thinking go way, WAY out the window when Hendry meets MacPhail.
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Could be. But one thing we have seen from Hendry is that when he gives up on a prospect or a player, he truly gives up and dumps. I think that is what happened with Moore and Cherry--Hendry considered them worthless and was primed to dump. (We saw same attitude for Juan Cruz, and I think we'll see the same thing with Fontenot this spring.) MacPhail exploited that.

That said, I don't think that Hendry feels that way about Marshall, Cedeno and Fuld. At least I hope not! Certainly not with regard to Fuld, I hope.

Jim Hendry's next FA target.............. Jim Leyritz

Yes, RIP Joe Nuxhall.

He reminds me of summer nights many years ago, turning the radio dial of the clock radio in my bedroom, and picking up Nuxhall on WWL, or Gene Elston in Houston, Ernie Harwell in Detroit, Bob Elson in Chicago, or other baseball announcers in Minnesota, Cleveland, and other MLB outposts.

No ESPN then, no cable to speak of, just friendly voices on the radio bringing MLB to a baseball-crazy kid in Danville.

They - and the chirping crickets - put me to sleep many a night.

absolutely mike vail...

The 'ol left hander was an icon here much like Harry was in Chicago. Not so much on the national level like Harry, but locally its a huge loss and everyone here is really sad to see him go. He spent over 60 years here in the Nati and the games just wont be the same without him. I've only been here 12 years, but he definately left a lasting impression on me. If anyone is interested, there is a special section dedicated to Joe here:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sect...

For those who never heard him, Joe Nuxhall would end every broadcast with "This is the Old Lefthander, roundin' third and headin' for home".

Almost as cool as Jack Buck on KMOX: "Thanks for your time this time, until next time, so long."

It looks like the Wrigley sod project will be finished tomorrow....

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com...

check out the new post LNL...

ROB G: "Kaz was a shortstop in Japan and his first year with the Mets."

I know that ROB. I saw many errors of his' myself. But he would be signed as a 2B. A position that the Cubs seemingly have had 50 of 2005-now.

Which is again, WHY I'm wondering why the hell do we need a guy who really was not comfortable playing SS in the US, and only hits in Coors Field, when 2B is "handled" adequetly?

But he would be signed as a 2B

how do you know that?

If we have to sign a FA 2b from Japan, why not Tad Iguchi? At least he has a small amount of power as opposed to none.

"how do you know that?"

Well, his ratio of GP 2B to SS, is 8:1? 10:1?

I am making a logical assumption.

And, he has not played the position (SS) in three or four years?

well the other logical assumption is the Cubs have DeRosa under contract for 2 years and he was kind of good last year. Theriot not so much....

Kaz still has the wheels judging by the baserunning metrics and his stolen bases to cover shortstop.

That being said, I don't know the exact idea behind this signing if it happens. Shorstop though seems far more logical than second base to me. The Mets did have this Reyes guy at shorstop when Kaz first got moved to second. This Tulowitzki character wasn't too bad for the Rockies last year.

Rob

Chad

And....

"the Cubs have DeRosa under contract for 2 years and he was kind of good last year. Theriot not so much…."

True, true.

But 2004 was before Reyes. It was ALL Kaz.

I guess we'll soon see!

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