Cubs Lineup Fun

With the wind chill factor in Chicago approaching 137 degrees below zero and Spring Training still 21 days, 14 hours, 9 minutes and 41 seconds away, I found this fun little diversion courtesy of David Pinto at Baseball Musings.

Based on work by Cyril Morong (Beyond The Box Score), Ken Arneson (Catfish Stew), and Ryan Armbrust (The Pastime), Pinto has fashioned a Lineup Analysis machine. You simply feed nine players into the formula along with their OBP's and slugging percentages, and what you get back is a series of run projection numbers, based on various lineup permutations of the players you entered.

For yucks, I entered numbers for Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Pie, DeRosa and Soto, plus a generic Cub Pitchers line (.167 OBP, .207 SLG, based on the Cub pitchers’ ’07 hitting performance).

For all of the Cub starters except Fukudome and Soto, I used the 2007 stats; for Fuku and Soto, I went with Dan Szymborski’s 2008 ZiPS Projections.

Results:
Best case: 5.218 runs per game
Worst case: 4.421 runs per game

The most productive lineup was constructed this way:

Lee
Ramirez
DeRosa
Soriano
Fukudome
Pie
Soto
Pitcher
Theriot

FYI--5.218 rpg equates to 845 runs for a 162-game season, which would have been third best in the NL last season. In reality, the Cubs averaged 4.64 rpg last year, good for 8th in the NL.

For further yucks, I substituted Sam Fuld for Pie.

Results with Fuld:
Best: 5.356 rpg (would have been second best in NL)
Worst: 4.608 rpg

Finally, for the ultimate in yucks and with complete disregard for the fact that someone would have to play shortstop, I pretended that the Cubs managed to land Brian Roberts and get him in the lineup with Mark DeRosa, with Roberts' line replacing Theriot's.

Ultimate yucks results with Roberts instead of Theriot:
Best: 5.478 rpg (would have been second in NL in ’07, just five runs behind the league-leading Phillies)
Worst: 4.742 rpg

Hey, look at that: only 21 days, 14 hours, 3 minutes and 29 seconds until Mesa.

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  • SF continues their kickass losing streak (6 games). WAS is suddenly back in the WC competition mix via SF's suck. SF 7.0 games back and WAS 7.5 games back is a hell of a distance for either team to climb at this point in the season.
  • Nice stuff tonight... Brewers sweep Pirates, 5-3 Giants losing to Rockies 9-2, 5th Dodgers losing 2-0 to SD, early. Corey Seager strikes out in 1st MLB at-bat.
  • Still taking quite a bit of time
  • I was running something that probably slowed it down. Should be much better now
  • Is it me, or is the site taking fo-r-ev-er to load?
  • Seems to be working. Unfortunately, I can't get it to work with anything other than plain text! Javascript from editor messes up the AJAX posting. Feedback welcome
  • Trying to make comments dynamic such that one displays to everyone in the comments section as well as in the recent comments blocks immediately after it's posted (i.e. no refresh required). Second test
  • It's Magic. http://tinyurl.com/osa2pm2
  • "never been a fan of using closers in non-save situations." Tie game at home in the ninth, there can never be a save situation. So you're saying, don't use your best reliever today.
  • Sorry if this was covered in a different thread, but while I overall like this new design, the white type on the dark background is a killer. I may be in the minority on that. But again, nice job.
  • It was almost like Javy was saying, "see, O&B, same old Javy here." Guy's gotta learn you don't need to swing hard to knock a Chapman ball out of the park. Choke up, dude, follow Rizzo's lead.
  • The magic number is now 24.
  • Kershaw uses his 132nd pitch for his 15th K (Marlon Juice Byrd, with the tying run at 2nd), and the Dodgers sweep the Giants. Also, Pirates lose to the Brewers for the 5th straight time. So...with 30 to play, we are 6.5 up on SF (7 in loss column) and 8 up on the Nats, and still in contact (4.5 back) of the Pirates. Man, what a roller coaster the last 2 days -- fantastic stuff.
  • Schlitter still pitching for Iowa? Guess nobody wanted him?
  • JOHN B: Pierce Johnson and Rob Zastryzny were likely 2015 AFL candidates (I mentioned them as likely candidates to get assigned to the AFL in an article about the AFL last month) because they are starting pitchers who missed part of the season due to injuries and they need to accrue more innings.
  • I personally don't think managers use closers enough in tie games in the 9th. The mindset and adrenaline should be just like a save situation. You get the outs, you have a great chance of winning. You don't your team is screwed.