Cubs Lineup Fun

With the wind chill factor in Chicago approaching 137 degrees below zero and Spring Training still 21 days, 14 hours, 9 minutes and 41 seconds away, I found this fun little diversion courtesy of David Pinto at Baseball Musings.

Based on work by Cyril Morong (Beyond The Box Score), Ken Arneson (Catfish Stew), and Ryan Armbrust (The Pastime), Pinto has fashioned a Lineup Analysis machine. You simply feed nine players into the formula along with their OBP's and slugging percentages, and what you get back is a series of run projection numbers, based on various lineup permutations of the players you entered.

For yucks, I entered numbers for Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Pie, DeRosa and Soto, plus a generic Cub Pitchers line (.167 OBP, .207 SLG, based on the Cub pitchers’ ’07 hitting performance).

For all of the Cub starters except Fukudome and Soto, I used the 2007 stats; for Fuku and Soto, I went with Dan Szymborski’s 2008 ZiPS Projections.

Results:
Best case: 5.218 runs per game
Worst case: 4.421 runs per game

The most productive lineup was constructed this way:

Lee
Ramirez
DeRosa
Soriano
Fukudome
Pie
Soto
Pitcher
Theriot

FYI--5.218 rpg equates to 845 runs for a 162-game season, which would have been third best in the NL last season. In reality, the Cubs averaged 4.64 rpg last year, good for 8th in the NL.

For further yucks, I substituted Sam Fuld for Pie.

Results with Fuld:
Best: 5.356 rpg (would have been second best in NL)
Worst: 4.608 rpg

Finally, for the ultimate in yucks and with complete disregard for the fact that someone would have to play shortstop, I pretended that the Cubs managed to land Brian Roberts and get him in the lineup with Mark DeRosa, with Roberts' line replacing Theriot's.

Ultimate yucks results with Roberts instead of Theriot:
Best: 5.478 rpg (would have been second in NL in ’07, just five runs behind the league-leading Phillies)
Worst: 4.742 rpg

Hey, look at that: only 21 days, 14 hours, 3 minutes and 29 seconds until Mesa.

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  • "According to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, Tim Tebow's baseball workout Tuesday in Los Angeles will be attended by scouts from "roughly half" of the 30 major league teams."

    "One scout told ESPN.com last week that Tebow's swing is so long it might "take out the front row." That's not a good thing."

    crunch 21 min 58 sec ago view
  • MyrtleBeachPelicans [email protected]

    The #MBpelicans and @Cubs have extended their PDC through 2020!
    ----
    Carolina League getting 2 new teams too.

    QuietMan 40 min 42 sec ago view
  • CF WAR is ridiculous...billy hamilton is pulling a 3.0 WAR somehow...and managed a 2.0 WAR last year (even though he missed a month of the season)...and a 3.7 WAR in 2014.

    yeah, a lot depends on how one is doing relative to others at a given position, but WAR is common used (right or wrong) as a blanket comparing all kinds of players.

    trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo.

    crunch 46 min 23 sec ago view
  • Rob G. 1 hour 19 min ago view
  • Don't know if Cubs will recover from "spanking" Gordo

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/cubs-sent-home-...

    jacos 3 hours 52 min ago view
  • 2nd in defensive WAR, NL.

    6th in NL in RBI

    Go complain about something else, like, "they never play good against the good teams", or some other shit.

    The E-Man 16 hours 19 min ago view
  • Addy really has trouble breaking through .250 BA -- after his hot streak got him to .251, he has gone 1-for-17.

    billybucks 17 hours 34 min ago view
  • Thank goodness for Jansen's 2 WP on Friday -- otherwise this would have been a sweep.

    billybucks 18 hours 18 min ago view
  • There seems to be a direct correlation with overconfidence in the Cubs offense against mediocre/young pitchers and really poor offense against mediocre/young pitchers. So, let's fear the Pirate pitchers!

    billybucks 18 hours 18 min ago view
  • Rizzo due for a power surge -- one HR in August so far. He truly does hit them in bunches.

    billybucks 18 hours 20 min ago view
  • Sometimes I'm not as supportive of Cahill as maybe I should be. There, I said it.

    Jackstraw 18 hours 23 min ago view
  • Rough 8th inning all around -- HBP, Cahill error, Javy's poor decision.

    Oh well - given that the Cubs didn't look like they were going to score, it's better to lose in 9 innings, save the bullpen and get changed for the PJ trip home.

    billybucks 18 hours 24 min ago view
  • Baez still learning

    jacos 18 hours 51 min ago view
  • heyward with his 3rd multi-hit game since the all-star break (all in august)...2nd in the past 3 games during his 7 game hitting streak.

    he's gone from flirting with a sub-.300 ob% to nearing .310 ob% in 3 games (1 game was just a 1 for 1 pinch hit appearance). all 5 hits in the past 3 games have come in a row...neat.

    crunch 19 hours 55 min ago view
  • stewart with 7Ks through 3ip...of course.

    that 10-13 mph difference in his fastball/change is working today...and they're swinging at his crappy slider.

    crunch 21 hours 1 min ago view
  • brock stewart...steven brault...fun times for the cubs hitters vs allegedly competitive teams...maybe.

    crunch 21 hours 50 min ago view