Cubs Lineup Fun

With the wind chill factor in Chicago approaching 137 degrees below zero and Spring Training still 21 days, 14 hours, 9 minutes and 41 seconds away, I found this fun little diversion courtesy of David Pinto at Baseball Musings.

Based on work by Cyril Morong (Beyond The Box Score), Ken Arneson (Catfish Stew), and Ryan Armbrust (The Pastime), Pinto has fashioned a Lineup Analysis machine. You simply feed nine players into the formula along with their OBP's and slugging percentages, and what you get back is a series of run projection numbers, based on various lineup permutations of the players you entered.

For yucks, I entered numbers for Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Pie, DeRosa and Soto, plus a generic Cub Pitchers line (.167 OBP, .207 SLG, based on the Cub pitchers’ ’07 hitting performance).

For all of the Cub starters except Fukudome and Soto, I used the 2007 stats; for Fuku and Soto, I went with Dan Szymborski’s 2008 ZiPS Projections.

Results:
Best case: 5.218 runs per game
Worst case: 4.421 runs per game

The most productive lineup was constructed this way:

Lee
Ramirez
DeRosa
Soriano
Fukudome
Pie
Soto
Pitcher
Theriot

FYI--5.218 rpg equates to 845 runs for a 162-game season, which would have been third best in the NL last season. In reality, the Cubs averaged 4.64 rpg last year, good for 8th in the NL.

For further yucks, I substituted Sam Fuld for Pie.

Results with Fuld:
Best: 5.356 rpg (would have been second best in NL)
Worst: 4.608 rpg

Finally, for the ultimate in yucks and with complete disregard for the fact that someone would have to play shortstop, I pretended that the Cubs managed to land Brian Roberts and get him in the lineup with Mark DeRosa, with Roberts' line replacing Theriot's.

Ultimate yucks results with Roberts instead of Theriot:
Best: 5.478 rpg (would have been second in NL in ’07, just five runs behind the league-leading Phillies)
Worst: 4.742 rpg

Hey, look at that: only 21 days, 14 hours, 3 minutes and 29 seconds until Mesa.

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  • Yeah -- seeing the weather -- I hope KB and Rizz are inside, wrapped in blankets and drinking hot chocolate.

    billybucks 22 min 33 sec ago view
  • rain delay...thanks obama.

    crunch 1 hour 50 sec ago view
  • Thanks again Phil. We actually were in Mesa and drove around. Hopefully, I am back for some Fall League. If not I have all of spring training (like the smart people who move here!)

    rvimpeny 2 hours 4 min ago view
  • What Rob G said.  I can't speak for Piittsburgh, but the other end of the state has had absolute crap weather for two days. Perfect day to take it easy.

    Transmission 2 hours 8 min ago view
  • tarp came off 10 minutes ago...let's do this.

    crunch 2 hours 22 min ago view
  • He will not pitch another game for Cubs

    /Unless injury in playoffs

    jacos 2 hours 39 min ago view
  • ~fart~

    jacos 2 hours 39 min ago view
  • Today is bullpen day

    jacos 2 hours 40 min ago view
  • 10/450 if they win WS

    jacos 2 hours 40 min ago view
  • Carrie Muskat [email protected]
    Even though Hammel is missing start, don't assume he'll not be on #Cubs postseason roster. Maddon says elbow problem isn't that bad

    Carrie Muskat [email protected]
    Maddon on #Cubs postseason rotation: "I don't want to announce anything. We haven't talked to anybody yet"

    Carrie Muskat [email protected]
    Maddon hopes Soler can take BP in Cincy, play in sim game Tue. "All of that should give us some kind of indication of where he's at"

    crunch 2 hours 57 min ago view
  • tarp on the field 40 minutes before gametime...meh.

    crunch 3 hours 44 sec ago view
  • travel day + rain in Pittsburgh. Why risk injury?

    Rob G. 3 hours 4 min ago view
  • tim federowicz has been freed to play with his AAA teammates.

    crunch 3 hours 15 min ago view
  • The lineup tonight....what the hell. Unless all the players are completely exhausted, this seems like overkill to me. They have 4 days off after Sunday.

    billybucks 3 hours 18 min ago view
  • Tommy Nance seems like quite an Indy league find

    Koyies Bansaw 3 hours 24 min ago view
  • watching heyward attempt to hit a fastball is alarming. he's doing bad things with stuff he should be nailing...weak popups, grounders, late swing fouls...

    it's going to be next to impossible to do worse than this season, but hopefully he can at least hit a fastball with authority next year.

    crunch 4 hours 6 min ago view