Pie and (Corey) Patterson: A Plethora of Prognosticators' Projections

While it's no Arizona-Phil-from-two-days-ago-live-scouting-update , John Sickles has a post up at his website concerning Felix Pie. For the most part, it's a vanilla run through Pie's minor league credentials, but a couple of things came up from the post that are worth re-emphasizing.

First, Sickles is the latest to shoot down the Pie/Patterson comparisons. As he notes,

Since July 2006 he [Pie] has been a monster for Iowa, and I see no point in sending him back there. Triple-A pitchers have nothing left to teach him. The best line Patterson ever managed at Iowa was .253/.308/.387. This is not the same thing at all.

Let's get a bit more specific with this.

Patterson, as a 20 year old in AA West Tennessee, had 444 ABs for a line of .261/.338/.491/.829

Pie, as a 20 year old in in AA West Tennessee, had 240 ABs for a line of .304/.349/.554/.903

Patterson, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 367 ABs for a line of .253/.308/.387/.695

Pie, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 559 ABs for a line of .283/.341/.451/.792

(Also, Pie followed up with a dominant half-season as a 22 year old, while Corey at the same point was struggling in his first full season in the majors.) It's a pretty clear difference in minor league production there, at the same ages and levels.

Second, Sickles sumarizes the different projection systems (and projecting persons) and the numbers they predict for Pie in 2008:

Ron Shandler: .285/.334/.461/.795, 18 steals in 456 AB
Bill James: 283/.333/.456/.789, 23 steals in 553 AB
ZIPS: .269/.321/.429/.750, 20 steals in 539 AB
John Sickles: .266/.320/.433/.753, 16 steals in 500 AB

Going to Pie's fan-graphs page, I learn that he also has these additional projections:

CHONE: .272/.326/.433/.760, 22 steals in 496 AB
Marcel: .256/.322/.402/.724, 8 steals in 266 AB

Just for fun, what are Patterson's predictions for this year?

Bill James: .269/.311/.421/.733, 29 SB in 439 AB
ZIPS: .257/.295/.402/.697, 32 SB in 495 AB
CHONE: .261/.305./.402/.707, 30 SB in 468 AB
Marcel: .261/.304/.400/.704, 31 SB in 460 AB

Expressed slightly differently: of 6 different gurus and projection formulas I can find for Pie's 2008 season, only the lowest one, the Marcel system, is lower than the highest projection that I can find for Patterson, James's prediction.

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  • Certainly might be the hottest pitcher right now, but he's behind a few pitchers by most objective full season standards.

    Rob G. 2 hours 34 min ago view
  • Well noted. You may also note that Lester's Career Playoff ERA is almost a full point lower, and he has a lower WHIP as well.

    Can't have everything, I guess.

    The E-Man 7 hours 40 min ago view
  • i'm happy enough with the Lester signing, but Scherzer has more than earned the extra money so far. If he was in the rotation instead of Lester, this team would feel practically bulletproof to me.

    Blaspheme maybe, but I think Scherzer is the best pitcher in the NL right now.

    John Beasley 8 hours 31 min ago view
  • Maddon was pimping Russell for Gold Glove honors recently as a manager should do...

    Here's some defensive numbers:

    Fangraphs

    1. Crawford (22.2)
    2. Seager (16.9)
    3. Cozart (14.2)
    4. Hechavarria (13.5)
    5. Russell (12.4)

    Baseball Reference

    1. B. Crawford 2.3
    2. Russell 2.0
    3. Hechavarria 1.7
    4. N. Ahmed 1.6
    5. Z. Cozart 1.5

    .....

    13.C. Seager 0.7

    Traditional stats

    Crawford

    .978 FP, 11 E, 333 A, 162 PO, 562 Chances, 4.27 RF, 72 DP Turned

    Russell

    Rob G. 9 hours 5 min ago view
  • Let me guess: Land of Contusion? Puppet Prez Reagan mistakenly blows the world up due to a bum thumb?

    Eric S 12 hours 6 sec ago view
  • Favorite Genesis video

    https://youtu.be/QHmH1xQ2Pf4

    jacos 12 hours 29 min ago view
  • Twitterverse reporting that Almora's examination by a hand specialist went okay, it's still just a hand contusion.

    Eric S 13 hours 9 min ago view
  • Attaboy, Eloy! Jimenez named Midwest League MVP and Best Prospect.

    Gonzalez and Morrison also honored.

    VirginiaPhil 18 hours 29 min ago view
  • QuietMan 1 day 4 hours ago view
  • FYI, formatting of the web page is weird.

    JoePepitone 1 day 7 hours ago view
  • Now who can argue with that? I think we're all indebted to Gabby Johnson for clearly stating what needed to be said. I'm particularly glad that these lovely children were here today to hear that speech. Not only was it authentic frontier gibberish, it expressed a courage little seen in this day and age.

    Jackstraw 1 day 7 hours ago view
  • White Sox new stadium name w apropos logo

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/768...

    jacos 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • it was between that and "more like the CRUNCH REALLY EARLY AM REPORTER because i'm gonna c.r.e.am all over this place."

    i chose the classy route.

    crunch 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • Rob G. 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • that was the 2nd greatest piece of performance art since Donald Trump's campaign

    Rob G. 1 day 8 hours ago view
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    crunch 1 day 8 hours ago view