Pie and (Corey) Patterson: A Plethora of Prognosticators' Projections

While it's no Arizona-Phil-from-two-days-ago-live-scouting-update , John Sickles has a post up at his website concerning Felix Pie. For the most part, it's a vanilla run through Pie's minor league credentials, but a couple of things came up from the post that are worth re-emphasizing.

First, Sickles is the latest to shoot down the Pie/Patterson comparisons. As he notes,

Since July 2006 he [Pie] has been a monster for Iowa, and I see no point in sending him back there. Triple-A pitchers have nothing left to teach him. The best line Patterson ever managed at Iowa was .253/.308/.387. This is not the same thing at all.

Let's get a bit more specific with this.

Patterson, as a 20 year old in AA West Tennessee, had 444 ABs for a line of .261/.338/.491/.829

Pie, as a 20 year old in in AA West Tennessee, had 240 ABs for a line of .304/.349/.554/.903

Patterson, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 367 ABs for a line of .253/.308/.387/.695

Pie, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 559 ABs for a line of .283/.341/.451/.792

(Also, Pie followed up with a dominant half-season as a 22 year old, while Corey at the same point was struggling in his first full season in the majors.) It's a pretty clear difference in minor league production there, at the same ages and levels.

Second, Sickles sumarizes the different projection systems (and projecting persons) and the numbers they predict for Pie in 2008:

Ron Shandler: .285/.334/.461/.795, 18 steals in 456 AB
Bill James: 283/.333/.456/.789, 23 steals in 553 AB
ZIPS: .269/.321/.429/.750, 20 steals in 539 AB
John Sickles: .266/.320/.433/.753, 16 steals in 500 AB

Going to Pie's fan-graphs page, I learn that he also has these additional projections:

CHONE: .272/.326/.433/.760, 22 steals in 496 AB
Marcel: .256/.322/.402/.724, 8 steals in 266 AB

Just for fun, what are Patterson's predictions for this year?

Bill James: .269/.311/.421/.733, 29 SB in 439 AB
ZIPS: .257/.295/.402/.697, 32 SB in 495 AB
CHONE: .261/.305./.402/.707, 30 SB in 468 AB
Marcel: .261/.304/.400/.704, 31 SB in 460 AB

Expressed slightly differently: of 6 different gurus and projection formulas I can find for Pie's 2008 season, only the lowest one, the Marcel system, is lower than the highest projection that I can find for Patterson, James's prediction.

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  • RIP Arnie. We could use a lot more like you -- a man who succeeded and failed on his own terms, a true original, and, finally, a remarkable example of graciousness towards others.

    billybucks 34 min 10 sec ago view
  • Cubs finish 33 over at home. I was, personally, one game over at 3-2, which was one of my better years in a while.

    I do hope that's the last time we see the Cardinals this year. A lot of power, which is dangerous, particularly in a short series, and they have really shut down KB all year.

    Oh, and Jon Lester? Damn!

    billybucks 46 min 3 sec ago view
  • Yes. Boating accident at 3AM. Very sad, but stupid. Young men do stupid things.

    billybucks 1 hour 41 min ago view
  • lester puts 2 on and is taken out at 96 pitches. oh well.

    edwards in.

    crunch 2 hours 25 min ago view
  • 2 out in the 7th, lester at 84 pitches, ross taken out for the standing O.

    it's possible contreras will catch lester for another inning+.

    crunch 2 hours 32 min ago view
  • What a weird day.  Jose Fernandez and Arnold Palmer, but then Scully and, on a much more modest level, Ross....

    Transmission 3 hours 5 min ago view
  • d.ross gets his 2nd standing O on the night (last home game of the season)...hits HR #10...curtain call. baseball.

    crunch 3 hours 8 min ago view
  • as a fan, he only "owes" us the game on the field and not getting in the way of others on his team being ready to play (imo).

    it's exponentially worse to his family and friends, but this dude most likely had 15+ years of play left and even though he just turned 24 a couple months ago he had already established himself as a top guy in the game.

    crunch 6 hours 30 min ago view
  • Carrie Muskat [email protected]

    Updated #Cubs probs vs Pirates: Mon, Hendricks vs Kuhl; Tue, Lackey vs Vogelsong; Wed, Arrieta vs Taillon; Thu, Zastryzny vs Nova

    crunch 6 hours 52 min ago view
  • I know what you're trying to say, Charlie, that none of us feels what his loved ones must be feeling.

    On the other hand, what makes a death like this tragic is precisely the loss, based on Fernandez's youth and brilliance, to the baseball world.

    So, for example, we can say that Princess Diana's death meant more, in aggregate, to millions of admirers who didn't know her personally than to her loved ones.

    VirginiaPhil 6 hours 53 min ago view
  • boston pitching snags a couple of mlb team records...

    "Over nine innings of play, Boston's staff struck out 11 straight Tampa Bay Rays hitters Sunday, breaking the major-league record for most consecutive strikeouts in a game.

    The previous record was held by former New York Mets right-hander Tom Seaver, who struck out 10 straight hitters in 1970.

    Not only that, but with a strikeout to end the ninth, sending the game into extras, Boston's staff also struck out an MLB-record 21 batters over nine innings."

    crunch 7 hours 18 min ago view
  • What a loss to baseball, which I'm sure pales in comparison to the personal loss to his loved ones.

    Charlie 9 hours 2 min ago view
  • Somehow I am sensing alcohol was involved. The highest number of boating accidents by a wide margin...

    The E-Man 9 hours 45 min ago view
  • crunch 11 hours 28 min ago view
  • Reports this morning that Marlins' pitching ace Jose Fernandez died in a boating accident - just horrible news.

    Eric S 15 hours 20 min ago view
  • Check out John Arguello at Cubs Den for great analysis & photos from Cubs AZ Instructs

    link

    Arizona Phil 1 day 3 hours ago view