Pie and (Corey) Patterson: A Plethora of Prognosticators' Projections
While it's no Arizona-Phil-from-two-days-ago-live-scouting-update , John Sickles has a post up at his website concerning Felix Pie. For the most part, it's a vanilla run through Pie's minor league credentials, but a couple of things came up from the post that are worth re-emphasizing.
First, Sickles is the latest to shoot down the Pie/Patterson comparisons. As he notes,
Since July 2006 he [Pie] has been a monster for Iowa, and I see no point in sending him back there. Triple-A pitchers have nothing left to teach him. The best line Patterson ever managed at Iowa was .253/.308/.387. This is not the same thing at all.
Let's get a bit more specific with this.
Patterson, as a 20 year old in AA West Tennessee, had 444 ABs for a line of .261/.338/.491/.829
Pie, as a 20 year old in in AA West Tennessee, had 240 ABs for a line of .304/.349/.554/.903
Patterson, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 367 ABs for a line of .253/.308/.387/.695
Pie, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 559 ABs for a line of .283/.341/.451/.792
(Also, Pie followed up with a dominant half-season as a 22 year old, while Corey at the same point was struggling in his first full season in the majors.) It's a pretty clear difference in minor league production there, at the same ages and levels.
Second, Sickles sumarizes the different projection systems (and projecting persons) and the numbers they predict for Pie in 2008:
Ron Shandler: .285/.334/.461/.795, 18 steals in 456 AB
Bill James: 283/.333/.456/.789, 23 steals in 553 AB
ZIPS: .269/.321/.429/.750, 20 steals in 539 AB
John Sickles: .266/.320/.433/.753, 16 steals in 500 AB
Going to Pie's fan-graphs page, I learn that he also has these additional projections:
CHONE: .272/.326/.433/.760, 22 steals in 496 AB
Marcel: .256/.322/.402/.724, 8 steals in 266 AB
Just for fun, what are Patterson's predictions for this year?
Bill James: .269/.311/.421/.733, 29 SB in 439 AB
ZIPS: .257/.295/.402/.697, 32 SB in 495 AB
CHONE: .261/.305./.402/.707, 30 SB in 468 AB
Marcel: .261/.304/.400/.704, 31 SB in 460 AB
Expressed slightly differently: of 6 different gurus and projection formulas I can find for Pie's 2008 season, only the lowest one, the Marcel system, is lower than the highest projection that I can find for Patterson, James's prediction.
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"But whatever players put into their bodies today to fight fatigue, it no longer includes amphetamines — or at least it doesn't unless those players want to risk getting slapped with a stiff suspension."
hahahahahhaha...oh my...my sides...phew, good one.
Hitters swing at more bad pitches as the season goes on, and a group of scientists at Vanderbilt University believe it's because they're not sleeping long enough or well enough. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/...
the DP would have most likely been turned...castro had a decent amount of time and was in good position to throw.
robinson's take-out slide was a bit silly...he was way off the bag.
Would they have gotten the DP anyway?
Also, while I tend to be a pretty big supporter of pitch counts, I can definitely see why they kept ninja in so long with our bullpen and Gregg pitching so much.
lololol...interference by robinson on a crappy slide going for castro (well off the bag getting ready to toss to 1st after stepping on 2nd) rather than bag forces a double play.
k.gregg gave up a 1 run single...got the "weird" double play...cubs win. STL fans are pissing themselves in rage.
it was a fair call, fwiw...robinson was no where near the bag on the slide.
...and 2 singles later (men on 1st/2nd) he's done after 115 pitches. almost...
ninja going into the 9th, 104 pitches.
3 96mph fastballs in a row to start the 9th...followed by an 84mph off speed pitch for the ground out.
and Javier Baez has a Grand Slam tonight in the 7th inning.
Z (AAA, PHI) tonight..
7ip 5h 1bb 6k, 0r
...according to a news/blog blurb about his last start he's not even hitting 90mph (at least that night), but he might be up in the bigs soon...especially with pettibone sucking hard in the rotation for PHI
Wavin' Wendall Sandberg....
Delmon Young becomes the 10th Phillie thrown out at home this year. Only Diamondbacks (11) have had more outs at home.
thanks obama.
...typical whitesox fan.
Juan Carlos Paniagua has pitched in one game this season for the Cubs Dominican Summer League team. Who knows when his visa issues will be resolved. If ever.
awesome play @3rd by valbuena, bottom 3rd
cubs up by 4 (all scored with 2 outs), top 1st...wainwrong.
ransom and r.sweeney homers.
another announce crew complaining about how long it takes for castro to walk back to the dugout after earning an out at 1st...it was the angels announce crew a couple weeks ago.
lovely, put up a post on potential trade candidates for Feldman and Garza and it ate the bulk of the text much like it does with some of the comments...sigh.