Pie and (Corey) Patterson: A Plethora of Prognosticators' Projections
While it's no Arizona-Phil-from-two-days-ago-live-scouting-update , John Sickles has a post up at his website concerning Felix Pie. For the most part, it's a vanilla run through Pie's minor league credentials, but a couple of things came up from the post that are worth re-emphasizing.
First, Sickles is the latest to shoot down the Pie/Patterson comparisons. As he notes,
Since July 2006 he [Pie] has been a monster for Iowa, and I see no point in sending him back there. Triple-A pitchers have nothing left to teach him. The best line Patterson ever managed at Iowa was .253/.308/.387. This is not the same thing at all.
Let's get a bit more specific with this.
Patterson, as a 20 year old in AA West Tennessee, had 444 ABs for a line of .261/.338/.491/.829
Pie, as a 20 year old in in AA West Tennessee, had 240 ABs for a line of .304/.349/.554/.903
Patterson, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 367 ABs for a line of .253/.308/.387/.695
Pie, as a 21 year old in AAA Iowa, had 559 ABs for a line of .283/.341/.451/.792
(Also, Pie followed up with a dominant half-season as a 22 year old, while Corey at the same point was struggling in his first full season in the majors.) It's a pretty clear difference in minor league production there, at the same ages and levels.
Second, Sickles sumarizes the different projection systems (and projecting persons) and the numbers they predict for Pie in 2008:
Ron Shandler: .285/.334/.461/.795, 18 steals in 456 AB
Bill James: 283/.333/.456/.789, 23 steals in 553 AB
ZIPS: .269/.321/.429/.750, 20 steals in 539 AB
John Sickles: .266/.320/.433/.753, 16 steals in 500 AB
Going to Pie's fan-graphs page, I learn that he also has these additional projections:
CHONE: .272/.326/.433/.760, 22 steals in 496 AB
Marcel: .256/.322/.402/.724, 8 steals in 266 AB
Just for fun, what are Patterson's predictions for this year?
Bill James: .269/.311/.421/.733, 29 SB in 439 AB
ZIPS: .257/.295/.402/.697, 32 SB in 495 AB
CHONE: .261/.305./.402/.707, 30 SB in 468 AB
Marcel: .261/.304/.400/.704, 31 SB in 460 AB
Expressed slightly differently: of 6 different gurus and projection formulas I can find for Pie's 2008 season, only the lowest one, the Marcel system, is lower than the highest projection that I can find for Patterson, James's prediction.
They are trying to bring the facility to the 20th century.
I think they know what they are doing.
With the Cubs adding Pierce Johnson to their roster and not exposing/losing him to the Rule 5 Draft keeps the trade ancestry tree alive that started in 1999 with Tom Gordon and undrafted Adam Morrissey and includes 17 players, the trade tree progressed to involve the Hee Sop Choi for Derrek Lee deal and the famous Aramis Ramirez/Kenny Lofton deal..Pierce Johnson is the compensation pick for Aramis Ramirez in 2012
the Rex brothers?
Yeah, the Rex brothers, Tyrannosaurus and Oedipus
When I first saw the Tweet, I thought there were two guys. Happy Thanksgiving gang! And TheoJed!
They can use another Brother
Cubs acquired Rex Brothers. Awesome fit for this team. Wander Cabrera going to COL.
"MLB announces #Cubs Minor League RHP Tanner Griggs receives 50-game suspension without pay after testing positive for amphetamine"
2014 12th rounder...
it's hard to know who to blame...on one hand he's a baseball player, on the other he sells cars in the offseason...either job leads to amphetamine abuse. =p
Thanks PHIL! I thought only the Cubs had control until the last day of the MLB 2015 Season.
that's awesome...makes me look forward to hearing theo talk some more about how the team needs to be creative with finances because money is tight.
See What The Cubs Are Building This Off-Season For Wrigley Plaza, Clubhouse
CUBBIES-4-EVER: It's not unusual for a PTBNL to be chosen after the Rule 5 Draft from the list of Rule 5 eligible players who were not selected. That way, a club gets a player they like (perhaps somebody like OF Jeffrey Baez) without the cumbersome Rule 5 roster restrictions that go with a Rule 5 Draft pick.
Clayton Richard is absolutely, positively NOT a free-agent. He is under club control through the 2016 season.
Haren was 4-2 with a 4.01 ERA with the Cubs. Seems like he worked out just as expected.
Did they ever say or who the PTBNL or cash decision on Rodney was or who was the PTBNL in the Austin Jackson deal was yet? Neither was worth whatever they gave up. Cahill and Richard were the only two good "deadline" deals they made. Hunter (given Lake was the odd man out by far and taking up a roster spot) and Haren weren't worth it.