Prospect List-Mania 2008
Just like I did last year, a rundown of the various prospect lists out there.
Criteria: Once upon a time it was all stat-based (or at least it seemed so), but since hiring Kevin Goldstein (formely of Baseball America) to be their minor league guy, I think he actually bothers to watch some of these guys and certainly talks to a scout or two.
1. Geovany Soto, C
2. Josh Vitters, 3B
3. Donald Veal, LHP
4. Jose Ceda, RHP
5. Josh Donaldson, C
6. Sean Gallagher, RHP
7. Tyler Colvin, OF
8. Eric Patterson, 2B/OF
9. Welington Castillo, C
10. Tony Thomas, 2B
11. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
Just Missing: Kevin Hart, RHP; Chris Huseby, RHP; Larry Suarez, RHP
Sleeper: Kyler Burke
What They Say: Colvin is a below-average center fielder range-wise, and many feel he'll need to move to a corner in short order. That leaves him as a bit of a tweener--his swing-at-anything approach led to just five walks in 62 Double-A games, which is not enough of an offensive force to play in a corner everyday. Lefties give him significant troubles, and he adjusts by shortening his swing, which costs him any chance at power against them.
Criteria: Stress tools and ceiling over stats, speak to a lot of scouts, can be guilty of relying on reputation over substance on occassion.
1. Josh Vitters, 3B
2. Geovany Soto, C
3. Tyler Colvin, OF
4. Jose Ceda, RHP
5. Sean Gallagher, RHP
6. Donald Veal, LHP
7. Josh Donaldson, C
8. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
9. Tony Thomas, 2B
10. Kevin Hart, RHP
Best Hitter for Average - Tony Thomas
Best Power Hitter - Josh Vitters
Best Strike-Zone Discipline - Sam Fuld
Fastest Baserunner - Leon Johnson
Best Athlete - Tyler Colvin
Best Fastball - Jose Ceda
Best Curveball - Casey Lambert
Best Slider - Alessandro Maestri
Best Changeup - James Russell
Best Control - Mark Holliman
Best Defensive Catcher - Welington Castillo
Best Defensive Infielder - Josh Lansford
Best Infield Arm - Josh Lansford
Best Defensive Outfielder - Sam Fuld
Best Outfield Arm - Kyler Burke
What They Say: The Cubs haven't signed a position player who developed into an all-star for them since Joe Girardi in 1986, but they have high hopes for Soto, Pie and four players taken by highly regarded scouting director Tim Wilken in his two drafts for the team (Colvin, Donaldson, Thomas and Vitters).
We discussed this list when it came out.
Criteria: I (still) have yet to pick up a copy of his annual prospect book (which I really should do), but he did spend some time as Bill James’s assistant so he definitely has a mind for statistics. That being said he actually makes it a point to watch every single team and player I believe over the course of the season which is an impressive amount of traveling.
1. Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+
2. Geovany Soto, C, Grade B+
3. Sean Gallagher, RHP, Grade B
4. Eric Patterson, 2B-OF, Grade B (I dropped him from B+ due to defense)
5. Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade B
6. Josh Donaldson, C, Grade B
7. Donald Veal, LHP, Grade B-
8. Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Grade B-
9. Jose Ceda, RHP, Grade B-
10. Tony Thomas, 2B, Grade B-
11. Billy Petrick, RHP, Grade C+
12. Kevin Hart, RHP, Grade C+
13. Sam Fuld, OF, Grade C+
14. Jake Fox, C-1B, Grade C+
15. Allesandro Maestri, RHP, Grade C+
16. Steve Clevenger, C, Grade C+
17. Mitch Atkins, RHP, Grade C
18. Mark Holliman, RHP, Grade C
19. Matt Craig, 3B, Grade C
20. Larry Suarez, RHP, Grade C
21. Ryan Acosta, RHP, Grade C
What They Say: These systems with lots of Grade C guys are hard to do.There are 15 other guys in the book who rate as Grade C, any of them could slot into the back end of the top 20 depending on what you are looking for.
Criteria: Couldn't tell you...
1. Tyler Colvin
2. Josh Vitters
3. Eric Patterson
4. Sean Gallagher
5. Donald Veal
6. Jeff Samardzija
7. Geovany Soto
8. Sam Fuld
9. Jake Fox
10. Josh Donaldson
Criteria: That's Project Prospect if it's hard to read. I don't know much about the site, but they seem to be doing good work.
1. Josh Vitters
2. Geovany Soto
3. Kosuke Fukudome
4. Sean Gallagher
5. Josh Donaldson
Honorable Mentions: Tony Thomas, Jeff Samardzija, Donald Veal, Tyler Colvin, Eric Patterson
What They Say: The Auburn University product started his collegiate career as a third baseman before moving behind the plate. Some believe he’ll become a solid defensive catcher some believe he’ll move off the position—maybe even to second base.
Criteria: Very similar to Baseball America in emphasizing tools and ceiling. Very intimate with the Cubs personal though so they get a lot of inside info from their coaches and staff, which should help on matters of makeup and such not.
(Their list isn't available online yet, but their editor forwarded me their list and gave me permission to publish it. The comments at the bottom are from the print magazine mailed to me.)
1. Tyler Colvin
2. Josh Vitters
3. Geo Soto
4. Donald Veal
5. Sean Gallagher
6. Jeff Samardzija
7. Chris Huseby
8. Jose Ceda
9. Kevin Hart
10. Eric Patterson
11. Justin Berg
12. Josh Donaldson
13. Tony Thomas
14. Mark Holliman
15. Larry Suarez
16. Mitch Atkins
17. James Russell
18. Rocky Roquet
19. Ryan Harvey
20. Mark Pawelek
What They Say: Gallagher's fastball is consistently in the low- to mid-90s, but his primary breaking pitch may be something of an enigma. He has shown a plus curveball, but hte Cubs wanted Gallagher to switch to a slider in order to have the same arm slot as his fastball.
Criteria: The list was published at scout.com, but Deric is the author of Minor League Baseball Analyst. His rather unique ranking system is listed below. He responded to some reader questions as well.
1. Kosuke Fukudome (OF)- 8A
2. Josh Vitters (3B)- 9D
3. Tyler Colvin (OF)- 8C
4. Geovany Soto (C/1B)- 7A
5. Jeff Samardzija (RHP)- 9D
6. Sean Gallagher (RHP)- 7B
7. Jose Ceda (RHP)- 8C
8. Eric Patterson (2B/OF)- 8C
9. Donald Veal (LHP)- 8D
10. Josh Donaldson (C)- 8D
11. Jose Ascanio (RHP)- 8C
12. Darwin Barney (SS)- 7C
13. Chris Huseby (RHP)- 8D
14. Tony Thomas (2B)- 7C
15. Kevin Hart (RHP)- 6A
PLAYER POTENTIAL RATING
Scale of (1-10) representing a player’s upside potential
10 – Hall of Fame-type player
9 – Elite player
8 – Solid regular
7 – Average player
6 – Platoon player
5 – Major League reserve player
4 – Top minor league player
3 – Average minor league player
2 – Minor league reserve player
1 – Minor league roster filler
Scale of (A-E) representing the player’s realistic chances of achieving their potential
A – 90% probability of reaching potential
B – 70% probability of reaching potential
C – 50% probability of reaching potential
D – 30% probability of reaching potential
E – 10% probability of reaching potential
What They Say: Soto has been at the Triple-A level for three years, which is long enough for me to be able to accurately assess his probability rating as an A. He is 25 years old, which is not young for a prospect, and is not a workhorse type catcher that is going to catch more than 120 games (he has never caught more than 102 games in seven minor league seasons). I do believe in his improved offense, but not at the level he hit in 2007 and certainly not Hall of Fame-caliber. By giving Soto a 7A Potential Rating, I’m confidently saying that he will be an average MLB regular, which is still pretty good. I don’t see him as an All-Star and with all the other things factored-in (age, role,and past performance), I like how I have him rated.
Criteria: Joe asked about ten different baseball sites for their rankings (including your very own Arizona Phil) and amassed the totals, MVP style.
1. Geovany Soto
2. Josh Vitters
3. Tyler Colvin
4. Sean Gallagher
5. Josh Donaldson
6. Donald Veal
7. Jose Ceda
8. Eric Patterson
9. Jeff Samardzija
10. Tony Thomas
And finally my top 15...
I get to bend the rules though, and instead of sticking to the standard Rookie of the Year qualifications that most folks use as a cutoff, I use a more vague, "hasn't really gotten his shot in the majors yet" qualification. I'll keep my descriptions short though to lessen the risk that I say something as dumb as I did last year about Carlos Marmol.
1. Felix Pie -
I'm sure most folks would still put Pie first if he didn't have 177 AB's last year in the majors, even if they were 177 mostly ugly AB's.
2. Kosuke Fukudome -
Technically he's a rookie and Pie is not, so he makes my list, which already looks better than most of the ones above. My plan is working to perfection.
3. Sean Gallagher -
He looked a little overmatched in the majors last year, but a 2 66 ERA in Triple-A at age 22 is pretty impressive. Word is he's trimmed down considerbaly this offseason and can get the fastball up in the mid 90's with more regularity. I'll be disappointed if he ends up getting traded to be honest.
4. Geovany Soto -
Put me in the Deric McKamey camp on this one...Soto was certainly incredible last year, but it was his third stint in Triple-A. I know he made a lot of adjustments last year (mostly Slimfast), but I don't think he's that GOOD.
5. Josh Vitters -
14 games don't mean a thing...
6. Jeff Samardzija -
He'll be entering only his second full year of baseball and his "stuff" is considered excellent. I learned my lesson with Carlos Marmol last year.
7. Eric Patterson -
The man without a position...
8. Tyler Colvin -
I'm not too big a fan, his bat sounds like it's just okay for a corner outfielder or first basemen and doesn't sound like he has the range to handle CF. And a nearly 5:1 K to walk ratio is Ryan Harvey territory.
9. Jose Ceda -
The control issues are worrisome, but I'm still learning my lesson from Carlos Marmol.
10. Josh Donaldson - We know Arizona Phil loves him, but if he can't stick to catcher, he won't be nearly as interesting. Of course if he moves to second base....
11. Tony Thomas -
Sounds like Eric Patterson about two years ago...good bat, worried about his defense.
12. Donald Veal -
We'll see how he rebounds after a tough offseason where he lost his father.
13. Billy Petrick -
I liked what I saw last year...he just has to stay healthy.
14. Kevin Hart -
Also, liked what I saw last year minus the injury concerns. I just think Petrick has better stuff.
15. Mark Pawelek -
It's been an ugly few years since he got drafted, but I stil think he has the talent to prevail.
Manny Rondon faced 13 batters ... and got 10 to K. Not a bad day's work.
With several other Cubs hitters bailing out on curves today I think overall it wasn't being seen well. It for sure looked silly but a good breaking pitch coming at you and then breaking down isn't the easiest thing to see and has made many hitters look silly. Also Soler should have more walks this year but for quite a few called strikes that were actual balls and even the called strike he bailed on was borderline.
it's not like we're talking about a guy who's never had issues with pitch selection and seeing the ball over here. we're talking about a guy who has some rather legendary swing-and-misses at breaking stuff who's been exploited low. going forward it's worth paying attention to seeing if he can be exploited inside, too. he seriously bailed out of the box on a called strike. sure it was a good curve, but he obviously didn't see that well at all.
It would seem like he is figuring it out now and it's really coming together. Really happy for him. Joe was really protecting him from the 3rd time through the order, but as you allude to, he is earning trust to go deeper.
Wondering if has potential to become a #3 pitcher? His current stats certainly support it.
That doesn't count b/c CRUNCH didn't see it on his 60" HDTV 5 times in replay.
I have seen many players "bail out" when the ball looked like it was gonna hit them.
Especially with the advent of the splitter and pitchers that can really get the ball to dance. Marmol, Sutter, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Smoltz, Arrietta...
These guys have made the best bail out only for the ball to come over the plate and be called a strike.
No shame in that. The same way players whiff hard enough to cause them to drill a hole in the ground from spinning.
a 60" TV with slow-motion replay and multiple looks on that replay helps...a lot...
it's one thing to shy away like he did the 2nd time, it's another to bail out of the box on a called strike. that happened in the 1st one he pulled away from. he misjudged that one by a foot or so...
Good Hendricks sure is fun to watch. He was hitting all his corners today and the Phillies couldn't do anything with his changeup.
Bryant and I believe Zobrist both did that too.
Soler BB acumen and plate awareness is excellent. Not unusual for even the best players to react as if they were about to hit them, "even though they weren't that close" from your vantage point sitting on your deck, or wherever.
soler vs inside breaking balls is scary.
he's had 2 inside curve balls today where he reacted as if they were about to hit him even though they weren't that close...one he bailed out of the box on, it was a called strike.
j.urias optioned back to AAA...guess we wont be seeing him in the LAD series.
so is him actually getting 2 hits in a game (2 doubles!)...first time he's even been on base 2 times in a game since 9 games ago on his 3/4, 1bb day.
im ready for him to at least look like a 2-slot hitter since he's gonna be slotted there no matter what he does.
That Heyward move to avoid Bryant's ball hit at him was a thing of beauty too.
9 pitches in and this game already rules.
HR, double...bryant's turn (who came out to a Kris Kross song for some horrible, horrible reason).
...2 run inning...zoobrest hitting streak at 14.
First time I saw Herrera was yesterday. He took like 100 pitches, fouled off a ton off Lester.
Very nice young player and perfect leadoff guy.
Obviously not Phil. But he mentioned this on Wednesday.
"Dominican Summer League (DSL) Opening Day is Saturday June 4th, so probably about 8-10 pitchers and position players presently at EXST in Mesa will be sent to the Cubs Dominican Academy (probably sometime this week) and be assigned to either DSL Cubs #1 or DSL Cubs #2."
In the comments here: http://www.thecubreporter.com/05242016/cub-power-d...