Last Night's Cubs Game with Visual Aids

By now, most of your are familiar with Fangraphs fantastic Win Probability Added charts that chart the chances for a team to win a game in real-time. Here's last night's exciting, albeit ultimately disappointing loss:

Cubs-Cardinals WPA graph















That though misses the big story of Alfonso Soriano's escapades and his effect on us fans watching the game. So we're introducing TCR's CFPA (Cubs Fan Popularity Added):

















Cubs fans were displeased enough with Soriano to start the game after his 0-4 return from the DL and questionable defense in the 9th. He didn't do much to help by swinging at the first pitch against Wainwright last night. Things started turning around with an RBI fielder's choice in the third, but then it fell apart in the 7th. He misplayed a pop-fly by Pujols and then missed another that lead to the Cardinals third run, putting him into the "Neifi Rage" range, which by TCR calculations has only happened about twenty times in Cubs history. The most prominent being Neifi's entire career with the Cubs and the last season of Dusty Baker. But things can change quickly in baseball, and when he obliterated an Isringhausen fastball to tie it into the ninth, most was forgiven.


Love it.

I'm going to guess that if you created a long-term graph of Cubs fans' feelings about Soriano, it would never settle on the "Content" line. A function of his being so hot and cold and alternately doing marvelous, game-changing things and doing ridiculous, hard-to-believe-you're-seeing-it things. Also the big paycheck is certainly a factor in how he's judged.

Well done, Rob. if "3/44" is TCR shorthand for "generally unsubstantiated rumor" [as I recall] then I think Cubnuts summation of the aggravating hot-cold nature of our feelings for Sori could be shortened to "8/136" to connote either tremendous relief/appreciation or shock/dismay, or both.

My interpretation of "3/44" is more along the lines of "old, repeated news". So the following could be an example of 3/44.

"Hey, sorry if this is 3/44, but Rich Hill was sent to AAA and Sean Gallagher was called up."

I like the 8/136 shorthand.

this might be 8/136, but what do you guys think of barry zito moving to the pen?

har har sigh...

Speaking of 8/136, when's Carl Pavano coming off the DL?

from Rotoworld...

James Russell made his Double-A debut on Friday and allowed one run in six innings for Tennessee.

Russell nearly matched Clayton Kershaw, who allowed an unearned run in 6 2/3 innings for Jacksonville. The son of former closer Jeff, Russell was a 14th-round pick last year, though he got third-round money to sign. He was 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA, 25 H and 14/7 K/BB ratio in 27 1/3 IP for Single-A Daytona before moving up. His excellent changeup gives him something he can use to combat right-handers, so he's a solid prospect even if he doesn't get many strikeouts.

I think we'd all be more willing to accept his very, very inconsistent offensive contributions if he were more consistent at what players are supposed to be consistent at, defense for one. He's been in left field for over two years now, why does he sometimes look so awful out there? I love his arm, but other than that his defense leaves a lot to be desired and it may have cost the Cubs the game last night. When you get paid like a superstar fans expect you to perform like a superstar whenever it is within your control. Now, it's completely unreasonable to ask him to go out and hit a homerun every game, but work on his defense and get someone to help him learn to read fly balls?

lol... This post should be an instant classic.

I got 3rd hand info that Rammy's wrist is NOT broken but may miss a couple of games due to swelling.

For those caught up in the Bissinger vs Leitch fiasco...thought this was a good take.

One more thing: Hopefully, last night's train wreck will finally put an end to this whole sports media/mainstream media battle against the sports blogging community. This has always been, in my opinion, a completely rudderless debate from both sides: These are two entirely seperate media. Bloggers are not putting newspaper columnists (or print media) out of business — bad newspapering is. These two worlds don't have to co-exist and were never intended to be that way. To me, blogging and internet writing, by and large, is rooted in comedy and opinion. That's it. One doesn't invalidate the other.

Personally, never got too caught up in the whole debate. Newspapers and beat writers are just upset because they're losing money and there's more than 2-3 opinions out there now. Mostly I feel that they expect what they write to be accepted as canon on the subject and aren't use to criticism, especially the instant criticism that happens on the Internet. And I don't ever care to do what Sullivan or Miles do and I'm sure they don't care to do what I do.

Bravo Rob, that graph is Cubtastic and describes Cubbery in a nutshell

I know this is a little premature but wow,do you think Dusty is wanting maybe a little revenge on us? The Reds flew in Mario Soto (nice vote of confindence for Dick Pole), to help Johnny Cueto who has been moved to start against us on Monday. The Harangutang pitches Tuesday vs. Z, and I think The Rock Star is pitching Wednesday's day game. Much is being made of this series in Cincinnati. All this attention is kinda making the Cubs seem gosh, important to Marty, Dusty and the boys.
I will be at the games. No, I won't boo Dusty or C-Pat because I don't care. But I might just blow kisses to Marty. Here's hoping Cubs fans fill their stadium despite it being a weekday series. Afterall, we're just a bunch of unemployed drunks.

rich hill to iowa
sean gallagher to cubs

I got into it awhile back with Rick Telander, who usually comes off as just another Medill doofus with illusions of grandeur. The responses he gave back concerning the many inaccuracies he regularly posts in the Sun - Times are truly hilarious; the guy's a walking dinousaur, and doesn't seem to be aware of it. Leave them to their own devices, no need to help them seal their own demise.

Whoops, I posted an inaccuracy myself - "dinosaur."

agreed, last night's game was full of AIDS.

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  • Reds pitching meeting tomorrow:

    "Hey coach...maybe we should walk Bryant?"
    "No...keep challenging him with fastballs! What kind of man are you?! The Cubs walked Harper, and look what happened there! They got teased for it, by one of the Nat players! Is that what you want?"

    billybucks 2 hours 35 min ago view
  • How can I get that feature? I think it woudl be a win-win for all involved.

    billybucks 2 hours 40 min ago view
  • Ian Happ is hitting.733 after 5 games at Tennessee. He went into tonight's game hitting .667 -- and went 3-for-3 to raise his average.

    2-for-3, including a bomb, for LaStella at Iowa. Pierce Johnson very bad -- 2IP, 5ER. Pitching prospects not looking so hot -- Underwood has been awful.

    Did Jiminez get hurt? I noticed he came out early yesterday.

    billybucks 3 hours 28 min ago view
  • Contreras keeps hitting/walking like this, and Miggy keep up the poor D and lack of offense - the kid could be the #1 catcher very soon.

    billybucks 3 hours 33 min ago view
  • it doesn't hurt that the Cardinals lose the KC and the Pirates lost too.

    Cubster 3 hours 34 min ago view
  • ...still trying to process what I just saw. From both KB and Jake. Walking Billy Hamilton twice is a cry for help. I think the nudie photos are messing with Jake's head.

    billybucks 3 hours 36 min ago view
  • Hopefully Peralta's time on the Cubs roster will be shorter than R. Soriano's.

    Cubster 3 hours 52 min ago view
  • it took 9 pitches for peralta to give up his 1st cubs homer. neat.

    crunch 3 hours 57 min ago view
  • damn...totally missed that ruben quevedo died on june 7th. he was only 37...heart attack.

    he threw some really horrible games for the cubs in 2000 and followed it up by doing the same for 3 season for the brewers.

    crunch 4 hours 4 min ago view
  • Holy Kris Bryant what?!

    Ryno 4 hours 6 min ago view
  • Hitting 3 HR, 2 doubles in a game. Never been done in mlb history per Len/Bob.

    Cubster 4 hours 18 min ago view
  • walks? this is baseball, not a nature hike. he needs to get his head in the game.

    in my opinion, he would have been better off hitting 2 homers rather than walking twice. /moneyballs

    crunch 4 hours 21 min ago view
  • Rizzo: 2-3, homer, double, 2 walks - meh

    Eric S 4 hours 23 min ago view
  • in other news, the site seems to be eating about 50% of my comments...which is probably a good thing in hindsight.

    Rob G. 4 hours 25 min ago view
  • The Tucker Barnhart reactions after each Kris Bryant HR are kind of priceless.

    Rob G. 4 hours 29 min ago view
  • ...but, he's also good at home runs, too.

    also, rizzo.

    crunch 4 hours 33 min ago view