TCR Friday Notes

...the triumphant return.

- Fun with projections: At their current .642 winning percentage, the Cubs would win 104 games. They have played a considerable amount of extra home games though to this point, so if you use their current .784 home winning percentage and their current .467 road winning percentage, that comes out to (roughly) 63 home wins and 37 on the road for a total of 100 wins. If they "tank" the rest of the way and just play .500 ball, they'd still be good for 90 wins on the year. This would also be a good time to note though that the highest home win total since 2002 is 57 wins done by the 2003 A's and Giants and the 2004 Yankees.

- Pitch F/X is now keeping track of time between pitches for each individual pitcher and The Hardball Times did a brief study wondering if fast-working pitchers do indeed help their defense stay sharp. For the Cubs in 2008, Jon Lieber is the quickest at an average of 17.8 seconds between pitches and Bob Howry the slowest at 26.8. And although the PITCH F/X times likely have different starting and end times, it's interesting to note that the MLB rules state that a pitcher is suppose to only have 12 seconds to deliver the ball once he gets it back from the catcher and the batter is in the box. It's also interesting to note that Steve Trachsel is not the slowest pitcher in the league...that honor goes to Indians reliever Rafael Betancourt.

- Eric Patterson's call-up was a bit of a surprise due to to Soriano's injury, not only to Cubs fans, but Patterson himself. Unfortunately he found himself scrambling for a passport so he could fly to Toronto with the team. They flew out yesterday, so I assume all is fine, otherwise you'd have to expect a roster move and an unfortunate demotion for Patterson.

- Zambrano was actually moved up a day in the rotation with the off-day on Monday. Does anyone else think Lou did it keep Z's bat in the lineup with the Cubs going on the road for two inter-league series?

- Supplemental first-round pick Ryan Flaherty will be sticking at shortstop for the time being and signing his contract when he arrives in Arizona. On the other hand, fourth round pick Matt Cerda, a shortstop out of Oceanside High School in California, will be moving to catcher immediately.

- Some fun you may have missed this week on TCR and around the web.

Enjoy the weekend!!!

Comments

I was going to post the link where Lou Piniella was found on Google Maps Street View, but they've updated the picture, replacing him. :-(

http://www.streetviewfun.com/2008/cubs-manager-pin...

I strongly disagree with adding instant replay mid-season. Why don't they wait until next season?

What about all the games that were already played this season without the benefit if replay?

Can we bring back Questec while we're at it? Some of these umps... oh, brother.

And Cubbies back in Canada for first time since playing the Expos, right? Better brush up on that French. I wonder if the Cajuns know any French... hmmm...

The game is in Toronto, which is Ottawa

The game is in Toronto, which is Ottawa Ontario

Just add "eh" and you're bilingual enough to get by.

starts today...i guess he'll miss the first game against us.

http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/tampabaycom/blogs/r...

Say you're Eric Patterson's agent. In March, you know this:

1. Your client plays for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs
2. The Cubs travel to Toronto in June
3. The chances your clients will be on the roster in June are - while probably not great (and you definitely wouldn't tell your client this) - they're probably better than 10-15%
4. Your client doesn't have a passport.
5. A passport takes roughly 6 weeks to come in if you do it the "normal" way
6. A passport is affordable by your client, lasts 10 years, and there's certainly a good chance your client will play in the American League sometime in the next 10 years. (Cubs hate Pattersons :-)

Do you:
A: Tell your client to apply for a passport
B: Tell your secretary to tell your client to apply for a passport
C: Go down to the post office and pretend you're your client and apply for a passport for him
D: Sip your pina colada at The Agents Club while telling Corey Patterson's agent, "I'm SO glad I'm not you!"

Recent comments

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  • he subscribes to my twitter, he's beyond TCR. #yolo #swag

    crunch 25 min ago view
  • Whoops. Maddon must have been reading TCR (for his daily crunch) and got confused.

    CTSteve 27 min 27 sec ago view
  • kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.

    i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.

    crunch 1 hour 8 min ago view
  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.

    crunch 1 hour 55 min ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 3 hours 23 sec ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 3 hours 45 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 32 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 5 hours 33 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 40 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 6 hours 16 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 6 hours 16 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 6 hours 19 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 6 hours 22 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 6 hours 23 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 6 hours 27 min ago view
  • i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.

    the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.

    some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.

    crunch 6 hours 40 min ago view