Rule 4 Draft Update - D-Day +10
Ten days after the 2008 Rule 4 Draft, the Cubs have signed 23 of their 51 draft picks.
Ten days after the 2007 Rule Draft, the Cubs had signed 23 of their 50 selections, although they eventually signed 33.
Four of the Cubs 2007 selections (1st round pick 3B Josh Vitters, 12th round pick RHP/SS Ryan Acosta, 15th round pick LHP James Russell, and 44th round pick 1B Bryan Jost) were not signed until just prior to the August 15th deadline.
Acosta (Clearwater Central Catholic HS with an NLI signed with U. of Georgia) and Russell (with another year of eligibility remaining at the U. of Texas) received "over-slot" bonuses (Acosta getting "4th round money" and Russell getting "3rd round money") to give up their college careers (or potential college career in the case of Ryan Acosta), and Vitters got $3M+ to give up an opportunity to play college ball at Arizona State.
While the Cubs certainly want to sign RHPs Andrew Cashner (2008 1st round pick out of TCU), Aaron Shafer (2008 2nd round pick out of Wichita State), and Justin Bristow (2008 5th round pick out of East Carolina), they may not get the deals done for a while.
Also, a lot of the players selected by the Cubs in the lower rounds of the 2008 Rule 4 Draft (10th round and below) who did sign sign right away are being "followed" (scouted) while they play in collegiate or post-HS summer leagues, so the Cubs might end up making a few "over-slot bonus" offers to some of the lower-round picks before the August 15th deadline, just as they did last year with Acosta and Russell.
If it turns out the Cubs can't sign their 2008 1st and/or 2nd round picks (Cashner and/or Shafer), they would receive compensation picks in next year's draft (#20 overall in the 2009 draft if the can't sign Cashner, and/or #66 overall if the don't sign Shafer).
Cashner and Shafer are probably waiting to see what the draft picks chosen in proximity to their selections will get. If so, the 17th selection in the 1st round (two slots above Cashner) got $1.5M, and the 22nd selection in the 1st round (three slots below Cashner) got $1.4M. So Cashner should probably expect to get somewhere around $1.5M.
If Cashner wants substantially more than that, the haggling could go on until the August 15th deadline, but Cashner has expressed a desire to get a deal done quickly.
The 17th pick in the 2nd round (two slots above Shafer) got $644K, while the 28th pick in the 2nd round (nine slots below Shafer) got $563K. So Shafer should expect to get somewhere around $630K If he wants substantially more than that, he is unlikely to be signed until the August 15th deadline, and that's only if the Cubs really want him that badly. Otherwise they can just take the 2009 compensation pick (#66 overall).
And based on what 2008 Rule 4 5th rounders have received so far, Justin Bristow should probably expect to get a signing bonus in the vicinity of $175K. If he wants substantially more than that, the Cubs will likely wait until August to decide whether to sign him or not.
BTW, the Cubs 1st round (Supplemental) pick (#41 overall) SS Ryan Flaherty (Vanderbilt) received a $906K signing bonus, right about what would be expected for a player selected in that slot.
2008 RULE 4 DRAFT STATUS
* bats or throws left
# bats both
CUBS DRAFT PICKS SIGNED AS OF 6-16-2008:
1-S. * Ryan Flaherty, SS (Vanderbilt) - at BOISE
3. Chris Carpenter, P (Kent State) - will report to FITCH PARK this week
4. * Matt Cerda, C/INF (Oceanside HS – Oceanside, CA) - at AZL CUBS
6. Josh Harrison, 2B (U. of Cincinnati) - at BOISE
7. Luis Flores, C (Oklahoma State) - at BOISE
8. * James Leverton, P (Texas Tech) - at BOISE
9. Jay Jackson, P (Furman) - at BOISE
12. * Jake Opitz, 2B (Nebraska) - at BOISE
13. * Tony Campana, OF (U. of Cincinnati) - at BOISE
14. Dan McDaniel, P (Chabot JC) - at AZL CUBS
15. Casey Coleman, P (Florida Gulf Coast) - at BOISE
16. * Ryan Keedy, 1B (UAB) - at BOISE
17. Jon Nagel, P (Independence CC) - at FITCH PARK (REHAB -TJS)
19. # David Macias, OF/IF (Vanderbilt) - at AZL CUBS
22. Tarlandus Mitchell, P (Alto HS - Alto, TX) - at AZL CUBS
23. * Ryan Sontag, OF (Arizona State) - at AZL CUBS
25. Rebel Ridling, 1B (Oklahoma State) - at BOISE
26. Josh Whitlock, P (West Virginia) - at BOISE
28. TeWayne Willis, OF (Lincoln Memorial U.) - at AZL CUBS
32. * Kurt Calvert, OF (Missouri) - at AZL CUBS
33. Sean Hoorelbeke, 1B (Central Michigan) - at AZL CUBS
34. Bubba O’Donnell, P (High Point) - at BOISE
36. Michael Brenly, C (UNLV) - at BOISE
2008 NDFA SIGNED BY CUBS AFTER RULE 4 DRAFT:
Eric Allen, P (King College) - at AZL CUBS
Tommy Mejia, P (Dominican College) - at BOISE
Mike Perconte, P (Murray State) - at BOISE
CUBS DRAFT PICKS STILL UNSIGNED AS OF 6-16-2008:
1. Andrew Cashner, P (TCU)
2. Aaron Shafer, P (Wichita State)
5. Justin Bristow, P (East Carolina)
10. Alex Wilson, P (Texas A&M)
11. Toby Matchulat, P (Wabash Valley CC)
18. * Jeffrey Beliveau, P (Florida Atlantic)
20. Jericho Jones, OF/P (Louisiana Tech)
21. * Logan Watkins, SS (Goddard HS – Goddard, KS) - signed NLI with Wichita State
24. David Cales, P/3B (St. Xavier U.)
27. Sonny Gray, P (Smyrna HS – Smyrna, TN) - signed NLI with Vanderbilt
29. Sean Buckley, 3B (King HS – Tampa, FL) - signed NLI with U. of South Florida
30. Cole White, P (Paris JC) - transferring to U. of New Mexico
31. # Kyle Wilson, 3B (Hill JC) - transferring to NC State
35. Ross Vagedes, P/OF (Wright State)
37. Erik Hamren, P (Saddleback CC)
38. Sean McNaughton, OF (BYU)
39. Jordan Brown, P (LSU)
40. * Jared McDonald, INF (Pima CC) - transferring to Michigan State
41. Jordan Petraitis, SS (Miami of Ohio)
42. Derek Riley, P (Chandler-Gilbert CC) - transferring to Arkansas State
43. Jesse Ginley, P (Dunnellon HS – Dunnellon, FL) - expected to attend St. Petersburg CC
44. David Doss, C/3B (South Alabama)
45. * Ashton Florko, P (U. of British Columbia)
46. Tony Zych, P (St. Rita HS - Chicago IL) - signed NLI with U. of Louisville
47. * Chad Cregar, RF (Western Kentucky)
48. Dylan Moseley, P (Louisiana Tech)
49. Hunter Scantling, P (Episcopal HS – Jacksonville, FL) - signed NLI with Florida State
50. Pete Levitt, P (Pitt CC)
AZ PHIL- Is Clayton Richard a free agent or not? One site I see he is, on another no. MLB has him listed as a free agent, Cot's contracts says he is a FA, baseball-reference says he's not, but Cubs have him on active roster. I know that he is just short of MLB 6 years service by just like 15 days, but that doesn't always matter.
Except that he gave up Russell and McKinney for a half-season of Hammel...
Beane cam at least point and laugh at Hammel.
The genius Angelo traded Olsen at Martzs request
Maybe Theo will sign Shark just so he can call Billy Beane and say: "Let's see...Russell? Check. McKinney? Check. Hammel? Check. Ninja? Check. Any other deals?"
To be fair to Emery and Trestman the foreshadowing of last year started happening well before them with the failure or mismanaging of multiple draft classes forcing the team to overspend in a free agency market that is even worse than baseball. Kyle Long seems like a good pick but they traded away another good one in Olson because of Martz's stupidity and inability to change his offense to fit the team talent.
HAGSAG: I think Domonic Brown does fit the criteria of a reclamation project, but unless he is willing to accept a minor league contract with an NRI to Spring Training, I don't think the Cubs would be interested given where the Cubs are right now. A couple of years ago? Yes. But probably not now.
Brown would be better-off going to a club that is rebuilding and re-establish his value there, like Chris Coghlan did with the Cubs. And if he can re-establish his value, he could get traded to a contender at the trade deadline and take it from there.
"they just fade away"
(Except in the cases of no-fade lefties like Moyer, Orosco and Rich Hill.)
Amazing to me how quickly it fell apart under Trestman. Year 1, they were a Chris Conte brain fart away from making the playoffs. Year 2 -- coach, staff and GM all fired.
I am sure Jonathon Mota will be signed next.
AZ Phil, what is your thoughts on Domonic Brown as a reclamation project?
He also played LF in deference to Curtis Granderson.
Meh... other moves to make...hope to see a move or two soon.
I haven't seen much Bears football this year - difficult to watch the games out here, but the game I saw the week before I was watching in shock as I saw them actually make tackles. And Cutler has looked really good, too.
I guess people can quibble about play calling, but the team I saw is way more than 50% better coached (my only very minor disagreement with your comment).
Under Trestman, the team didn't do anything right. This team played like a well coached team when I saw them play the Rams.
"What is sometimes overlooked about Vogelbach because of his "bad body" and because he has struggled so much defensively is that he is a hard worker, has a great attitude, loves to play the game, and is very well-liked by his teammates, and while that may not seem important, teams do actually value stuff like that. "
As well they should. Replace a word here and there and you are describing any worker someone would hire.
Hak-Ju Lee signs a minor league contract with SF Giants.
Some closure on the 6 degrees of Separation for Matt Garza/Chris Archer