Rule 4 Draft Update - D-Day +10
Ten days after the 2008 Rule 4 Draft, the Cubs have signed 23 of their 51 draft picks.
Ten days after the 2007 Rule Draft, the Cubs had signed 23 of their 50 selections, although they eventually signed 33.
Four of the Cubs 2007 selections (1st round pick 3B Josh Vitters, 12th round pick RHP/SS Ryan Acosta, 15th round pick LHP James Russell, and 44th round pick 1B Bryan Jost) were not signed until just prior to the August 15th deadline.
Acosta (Clearwater Central Catholic HS with an NLI signed with U. of Georgia) and Russell (with another year of eligibility remaining at the U. of Texas) received "over-slot" bonuses (Acosta getting "4th round money" and Russell getting "3rd round money") to give up their college careers (or potential college career in the case of Ryan Acosta), and Vitters got $3M+ to give up an opportunity to play college ball at Arizona State.
While the Cubs certainly want to sign RHPs Andrew Cashner (2008 1st round pick out of TCU), Aaron Shafer (2008 2nd round pick out of Wichita State), and Justin Bristow (2008 5th round pick out of East Carolina), they may not get the deals done for a while.
Also, a lot of the players selected by the Cubs in the lower rounds of the 2008 Rule 4 Draft (10th round and below) who did sign sign right away are being "followed" (scouted) while they play in collegiate or post-HS summer leagues, so the Cubs might end up making a few "over-slot bonus" offers to some of the lower-round picks before the August 15th deadline, just as they did last year with Acosta and Russell.
If it turns out the Cubs can't sign their 2008 1st and/or 2nd round picks (Cashner and/or Shafer), they would receive compensation picks in next year's draft (#20 overall in the 2009 draft if the can't sign Cashner, and/or #66 overall if the don't sign Shafer).
Cashner and Shafer are probably waiting to see what the draft picks chosen in proximity to their selections will get. If so, the 17th selection in the 1st round (two slots above Cashner) got $1.5M, and the 22nd selection in the 1st round (three slots below Cashner) got $1.4M. So Cashner should probably expect to get somewhere around $1.5M.
If Cashner wants substantially more than that, the haggling could go on until the August 15th deadline, but Cashner has expressed a desire to get a deal done quickly.
The 17th pick in the 2nd round (two slots above Shafer) got $644K, while the 28th pick in the 2nd round (nine slots below Shafer) got $563K. So Shafer should expect to get somewhere around $630K If he wants substantially more than that, he is unlikely to be signed until the August 15th deadline, and that's only if the Cubs really want him that badly. Otherwise they can just take the 2009 compensation pick (#66 overall).
And based on what 2008 Rule 4 5th rounders have received so far, Justin Bristow should probably expect to get a signing bonus in the vicinity of $175K. If he wants substantially more than that, the Cubs will likely wait until August to decide whether to sign him or not.
BTW, the Cubs 1st round (Supplemental) pick (#41 overall) SS Ryan Flaherty (Vanderbilt) received a $906K signing bonus, right about what would be expected for a player selected in that slot.
2008 RULE 4 DRAFT STATUS
* bats or throws left
# bats both
CUBS DRAFT PICKS SIGNED AS OF 6-16-2008:
1-S. * Ryan Flaherty, SS (Vanderbilt) - at BOISE
3. Chris Carpenter, P (Kent State) - will report to FITCH PARK this week
4. * Matt Cerda, C/INF (Oceanside HS – Oceanside, CA) - at AZL CUBS
6. Josh Harrison, 2B (U. of Cincinnati) - at BOISE
7. Luis Flores, C (Oklahoma State) - at BOISE
8. * James Leverton, P (Texas Tech) - at BOISE
9. Jay Jackson, P (Furman) - at BOISE
12. * Jake Opitz, 2B (Nebraska) - at BOISE
13. * Tony Campana, OF (U. of Cincinnati) - at BOISE
14. Dan McDaniel, P (Chabot JC) - at AZL CUBS
15. Casey Coleman, P (Florida Gulf Coast) - at BOISE
16. * Ryan Keedy, 1B (UAB) - at BOISE
17. Jon Nagel, P (Independence CC) - at FITCH PARK (REHAB -TJS)
19. # David Macias, OF/IF (Vanderbilt) - at AZL CUBS
22. Tarlandus Mitchell, P (Alto HS - Alto, TX) - at AZL CUBS
23. * Ryan Sontag, OF (Arizona State) - at AZL CUBS
25. Rebel Ridling, 1B (Oklahoma State) - at BOISE
26. Josh Whitlock, P (West Virginia) - at BOISE
28. TeWayne Willis, OF (Lincoln Memorial U.) - at AZL CUBS
32. * Kurt Calvert, OF (Missouri) - at AZL CUBS
33. Sean Hoorelbeke, 1B (Central Michigan) - at AZL CUBS
34. Bubba O’Donnell, P (High Point) - at BOISE
36. Michael Brenly, C (UNLV) - at BOISE
2008 NDFA SIGNED BY CUBS AFTER RULE 4 DRAFT:
Eric Allen, P (King College) - at AZL CUBS
Tommy Mejia, P (Dominican College) - at BOISE
Mike Perconte, P (Murray State) - at BOISE
CUBS DRAFT PICKS STILL UNSIGNED AS OF 6-16-2008:
1. Andrew Cashner, P (TCU)
2. Aaron Shafer, P (Wichita State)
5. Justin Bristow, P (East Carolina)
10. Alex Wilson, P (Texas A&M)
11. Toby Matchulat, P (Wabash Valley CC)
18. * Jeffrey Beliveau, P (Florida Atlantic)
20. Jericho Jones, OF/P (Louisiana Tech)
21. * Logan Watkins, SS (Goddard HS – Goddard, KS) - signed NLI with Wichita State
24. David Cales, P/3B (St. Xavier U.)
27. Sonny Gray, P (Smyrna HS – Smyrna, TN) - signed NLI with Vanderbilt
29. Sean Buckley, 3B (King HS – Tampa, FL) - signed NLI with U. of South Florida
30. Cole White, P (Paris JC) - transferring to U. of New Mexico
31. # Kyle Wilson, 3B (Hill JC) - transferring to NC State
35. Ross Vagedes, P/OF (Wright State)
37. Erik Hamren, P (Saddleback CC)
38. Sean McNaughton, OF (BYU)
39. Jordan Brown, P (LSU)
40. * Jared McDonald, INF (Pima CC) - transferring to Michigan State
41. Jordan Petraitis, SS (Miami of Ohio)
42. Derek Riley, P (Chandler-Gilbert CC) - transferring to Arkansas State
43. Jesse Ginley, P (Dunnellon HS – Dunnellon, FL) - expected to attend St. Petersburg CC
44. David Doss, C/3B (South Alabama)
45. * Ashton Florko, P (U. of British Columbia)
46. Tony Zych, P (St. Rita HS - Chicago IL) - signed NLI with U. of Louisville
47. * Chad Cregar, RF (Western Kentucky)
48. Dylan Moseley, P (Louisiana Tech)
49. Hunter Scantling, P (Episcopal HS – Jacksonville, FL) - signed NLI with Florida State
50. Pete Levitt, P (Pitt CC)
trevor clifton (high-A) could be interesting in a couple seasons...could even become a high/middle rotation guy. he's got a lot of pluses in his pitching except control.
eric leal's (high-A) progression through the minors should be worth watching even if only projects to be an mid/end-rotation starter.
we also gotta keep a long-distance eye on guys like jose paulino (ss-A) and preston morrison (A).
As Johnny Bach used to say when it was time for the MJ Bulls to crank up the defensive pressure: "Release the Dobermans!", and Jordan, Pippen, Rodman and Harper would just suffocate the other team.
I'd love to add Carl Jr. to that group - he's got the stuff.
Historically, the Moneyball guys have been great at identifying productive hitters. Not so much with pitchers.
Wow - Pierce Johnson with an ERA of 8.01 in 42IP!
What a stud prospect! Must be pitching with a pierced johnson.
Looks like Ryan Williams is the only legit prospect there. That is sad...
Well it would seem that's all they need now. "Stropy" can have his moments, but he's been more consistent post-asg.
Take THAT, Cardinals -- you beat Fernandez, we beat Sale.
I really like Lackey as a 6-inning pitcher.
Three amigos? Because the Dominican, the Venezuelan, and the Cuban?
Maybe the three-headed dragon?
Who says Contreras can't frame? Stone cold robbery of Eaton with that called third strike for the first out in the eighth
Three amigos time?
he should hit more of those. that would be an ideal outcome. /moneyballs
Russell with 19 RBI in July so far. Grand Slams help.
...and Familia with back-to-back blown saves. Blows a one-run lead vs. Rockies today, gets his 2nd consecutive loss.
I am OK with the Mets missing the playoffs and suffering crushing losses at home --- just want them to beat St. Louis.
He played with fire twice agains the Cubs -- unfortunately, the Cubs couldn't stop swinging.
How about Kyle Farnsworth? I know he was consistently upper 90s.
If he puts up Soriano numbers I will be ecstatic
I think Javy is learning--but he's learning to make contact, not learning to lay off pitches out of the zone. A quick glance at his plate discipline numbers on Fangraphs shows that his contact rate is up, especially his contact rate out of the zone, but his swing rate is up too, especially his swing rate out of the zone.
I definitely saw ballpark radar guns go up to 102 on Kerry Wood back when he was still a starter, but who knows how accurate they were.