TCR: No Good Will Come of This

Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

The five hits from the past week that did the most to enhance the Cubs' chances of winning, according to Win Probability Added as calculated by Fan Graphs:

#5.) Tuesday, 9th inning at Tampa, man on first, one out, Cubs trailing the Rays, 3-1. Kosuke Fukudome doubles against Troy Percival, sending Mark DeRosa around to third. It's so obvious the Cubs will at least tie up this game and send it to extra innings. It's so very, very obvious...right up to the moment the Rays retire Reed Johnson to lock down the 3-2 win. Fukudome double = WPA .150  

#4.) Saturday, 4th inning vs. White Sox, men on first and second, one out, Cubs trailing the Sox, 4-3. Fukudome hits a ground single to right, scoring Ryan Theriot from second base to tie the game 4-4, with much more run-making yet to follow in this fourth inning. Fukudome single = WPA .159

The countdown continues after the jump.

#3.) Friday, 7th inning vs. White Sox, none on, none out, Cubs trailing the Sox, 3-2. Moments after Derrek Lee has homered off Octavio Dotel to cut the visitors' lead to 3-2, all Cubdom is perched on its edge of its collective seat, wondering, "Can Aramis Ramirez tie up this game with one swing of his bat and in so doing, earn $7,000 for the lucky entrant in WGN Radio's Back-to-Back Jacks Contest?" The answer is yes and yes! Ramirez home run = WPA .222

#2.) Thursday, 7th inning vs. Tampa, men on first and second, one out, Cubs trailing the Rays, 1-0. Mike Fontenot connects for a ground-rule double off the new age artificial turf at Tropicana Field—give me the good ol' days when games were played on 100% real AstroTurf!—to score the tying run, put the Cubs in position to eventually claim a 3-1 lead, and give Carlos Marmol an opportunity to prove he's a human being. Fontenot double = WPA .258

#1.) Friday, 9th inning vs. White Sox, none on, none out, game tied 3-3. Scott Linebrink, who has been virtually unhittable all season long, throws a low fastball to Aramis Ramirez, who promptly deposits it over the centerfield wall, earning the Cubs a 4-3 win and leaving Sox announcer and lifetime .239 hitter Ken Harrelson utterly speechless, which is an achievement so profound, not even Win Probability Added can fully measure its significance. Ramirez home run = WPA .358

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#1 Jeff Samardzija UPDATE

Jeff Samardzija was promoted to AAA tonight, replacing Sean Marshall who will join the Cubs Tuesday.

...developing...

Comment: They're fastracking Samardzija again(4.86 ERA, 44K 42BB in 16 starts) who really doesn't seem ready-- definitely not as ready as Donnie Veal (2.76 ERA in 16 starts). And I believe Veal would benefit more from the promotion after the confidence draining season he had last year.

#2 Re: Jeff Samardzija UPDATE

I agree. I have yet to see signs that Jeff is ready for AAA let alone the big leagues.

#4 Re: Jeff Samardzija UPDATE

Trying to convince Samardzija not to walk away from baseball and pursue a career as a wide receiver?

#35 Re: Jeff Samardzija UPDATE

Since 5/28 his stats are:

21 1/3 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 2.64 ERA, 16K/10BB

Given his recent performance, he is not unworthy of a promation but I'd rather have him working on a secondary pitch in AA. Though with Hart on the DL, Veal might get his spot.

#3 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Here's a Whittenmyer brief on Marmol's mechanics, Johnson's rumored DL stint, Rich "head case" Hill, Kosuke leading off and Edmonds' hand. High signal to noise ratio.

#5 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

ya know...i know its popular to term these things "mental breaks" in the press and all, but damn...rich hill has had control problems in the past.

i mean...is oliver perez a "head case" cuz he cant do what he did in 2004 even though he hasn't been significantly injured since he "tanked"...or is he just a guy who's had spotty control his entire tenure who got it right one year and has the tools to get it right in the future?

rich hill put in a stellar season last year and even pessimists should have expected more than what he's put in this year...but to label his issues being some kinda greinke-like thing is a bit premature, but quick to be put on players the past many years.

maybe he is a f'n headcase...who knows...

#8 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Rich Hill K/BB:

'05 (AA): 90/21
'05 (AAA): 92/14
'06 (AAA): 135/21
'07 (MLB): 183/63

And then:

'08 (MLB): 15/18
'08 (AAA): 32/28

He didn't just pull his shit together for a year in '07 and then fall back to earth. He hasn't had command problems like this since A ball.

#9 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

BB/IP is more important for this conversation, really. heck, pitches per outing and IP he actually achieved would be even better.

he throws a lot of pitches.

he "clicked" in AAA 06 for a 1/3rd of a season and came up to the bigs for a 1/3rd of a season of some shakey control, but effective, outings. -edit- i guess he "clicked" in a partial tear he went on in AAA 05, too, but he was marmol-AIDS awful with his control in his 05 callup.

in 07 he had a nice year, occasionally wild...but overall effective. it wasn't like he was lights out and popular discussion was whether he'd have control over "both" his pitches in every outing and whether he'd break out a 3rd pitch that day.

hill's doing worse than expected, but i don't really find is extremely shocking he's having control problems. the extremity of them is hard to take, though.

#39 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Um, doesn't it seem likely changing his mechanics has screwed him up? That'd seem pretty likely to me.

#6 Reed on DL? News to him

Article states Hendry has not spoken to Reed about a DL DL stint. No mention of back injection. RJ states he will be working out @ Wrigley today.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/10191...

#7 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

If that Whittenmeyer article about Marmol is correct, then props to Old and Blue, who pointed out the flaw in his delivery a few days ago.

#10 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Rich Hill benefitted a lot from his relationship with minor league pitching coach Alan Dunn, who was hired away from the Cubs by the Orioles last year. Hill credited Dunn with turning his career around, and Dunn is probably is the one person who would be able to help Hill with his mechanics.

Even after Hill became a major leaguer in 2006, he would still see Dunn (who was a ST pitching instructor) every February at Fitch Park to help him get his season started. 2008 was the first time Hill did not see Alan Dunn at Fitch Park.  

And it's no secret that Hill's best friend on the Cubs was Michael Barrett. Barrett is the type of personality who functions as a "Big Brother" to certain younger players who look up to him, and when you take Barrett away, certain personality types are left adrift.

While he certainly has defensive liabilities and a tendency to make dumb mistakes on the bases, one thing Barrett did do was help Hill develop and maintain the confidence and mental toughness he needed to be a consistetly effective MLB pitcher. Barrett was Hill's Big Brother (and Barrett was Murton's Big Brother, too, BTW) 

You might wonder why an intelligent adult major leaguer would need others to help him build and maintain confidence and also to help him stay locked-in mechanically, but some just do. And it just so happens that Hill is one of the more "needful" ones.

With Hill out of minor league options as of next season, I suspect he very well might end up with the Orioles in 2009 (or perhaps even soorner), where he would be reunited with his pitching guru, Alan Dunn. And Orioles Scouting Director John Stockstill is the guy who drafted Hill back when Stockstill was the Cubs scouting director.

#15 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

If Hill goes over in a trade, anyone still want Brian Roberts in return?

Also, I'm assuming the Cubs knew Barrett and Dunn were instrumental in Hill's development. Do you think they thought at all about Hill would fare without both guys this year? If they didn't think it would have a negative impact on Hill, that would seem to be a pretty glaring lack of foresight on management's part.

#25 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Can Roberts pitch?

#26 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Hmmmm....how have the Cubs fared without Barrett?

Given the way they played last year after the Barrett trade, and so far this year, I'd say they have been playing at a 100+ win clip. Nothing personal -- my son and I met him at a team function, and he seemed like a very nice guy.

Players get traded or go free agent all the damn time. If Hill's pysche is so fragile that the trade of one player ruins him, then his MLB career wasn't going to be very long anyway.

#11 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

If that happens, then I would consider it a failure on the Cub's part, as well as on Hill's. They've spent a heck of a lot of time and care on Hill's development, and to have to throw it all away after waiting on his potential would really be a shame.

#12 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Imagine where this team would be if they didn't just give up all the time.

Anyone still want to complain about Aramis "not hustling"?

#13 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

I don't remember anyone on this site complaining about his performance on the field this year, so your snark is a moot point. Please try again.

#29 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Whatever you say, Boss. I was speaking more of Cubs fans in general, but I'll take your pointed criticism under advisement.

#14 "Comedy Central" No More

The three teams with the best records in the NL as of this morning:

1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Brewers

#17 Re: "Comedy Central" No More

The Dbacks are only 2 games over .500 after getting off to that super hot start. I guess it was a mistake for a lot of national media to 'crown their asses' so early :) looks like they might be fighting the pukey Dodgers for a playoff spot.

#19 Re: "Comedy Central" No More

The Cubs have allowed the fewest runs of any NL team. The Cubs have also scored more runs than every other team in baseball other than the Texas Rangers.

#32 Re: "Comedy Central" No More

Speaking of the Rangers...I know it was a pre-arranged deal with the Reds and his career might have gone down a completely different path had he stayed with the Cubs, but sweet Jesus how awesome would this team be with Josh Hamilton in CF? Could they have broken the mythical 1000-run barrier?

#27 Re: "Comedy Central" No More

Cubs have 48 wins with 5 games remaining in the first half of the season. Good show, fellas.

#16 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

I am not buying the arguement that without Dunn and Barrett, Rich Hill can't be a major leaguer. Coaches, and players come and go, if your career is dependant on the same constant then you were never meant to be a major leaguer in the first place.

Rich Hill's problems are Rich Hill's problems.

#24 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

You're right, Mike. They certainly are his own problems. I'm going to choose to believe that Rich is mature enough that he can handle the heartache that comes with his snugglebuddies leaving the organization.

But, at the same time, the problems that he's having are problems that NOBODY in the organization, the media, the blogosphere, or anywhere else, for that matter, have been able to diagnose. I think it's mechanical, but I don't know for sure. Could be that he's a big baby.

Nobody knows what's wrong with him. It's got to be something. You can't just fall flat on your face like that. He walked 2.91 batters per 9 innings at the big league level last year. Now, he's been demoted to AAA and he's walking 10.29 batters per 9 innings. I could go on and on with the stats, but I think everybody gets the point. There's just no explanation for it. It's mind-boggling.

#18 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

So in the case of Rich Hill's sudden unexpected decline. We as a group Blame Michael Barrett?

#28 Re: We as a group Blame Michael Barrett?

I know I don't count, but leave me out of that one.

#20 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

seeing that they were SD teammates for 5 minutes, you can certainly blame Barrett for Edmonds' production as a Cub

.311/.358/.581/.939 4 HR, 16 RBI

yeah he's lost 5 steps defensively in the OF over the last 2 years but still, no one thought he could still perform like this.

#21 Re: Cubs Hits Of The Week (Monday, 6/16 through Sunday, 6/22)

Submitted by Dr. aaron b on Mon, 06/23/2008 - 11:13am.

So in the case of Rich Hill's sudden unexpected decline. We as a group Blame Michael Barrett?

=======================

DR AARON B: Of course not. 

Blame Rich Hill.

Look, Rich Hill is a nice guy, but he's also a high risk/high reward/high maintenance fussy prima-donna know-it-all who needs things to be set up a certain way in order for him to feel confident and comfortable. And for whatever reason, Hill was willing and/or able to listen to Alan Dunn and Michael Barrett when he normally tunes everybody else out. And that helped Hill reach the comfort zone he needed in order to be a confident and successful MLB pitcher.

But it's not like Dunn and Barrett are the only two people in the world who can fill that need. Hill jut hasn't found their replacements yet. (Or maybe he just needs to learn to do it himself, except apparently he can't).

In some organizations, a key member of the starting rotation falling apart like Hill has done would have been catastrophic. But Jim Hendry was smart (or lucky) enough to cover himself with several fall-back options (like Gallagher, Marshall, Hart, and Lieber) in case any of the pre-2008 presumed rotation starters had failed, so that the Cubs still somehow have managed to run up the best record in baseball in spite of getting zero contibution from Rich Hill.

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