Game 95 Thread / Giants @ Cubs (3 of 3)

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SP Tm Lincecum SP Ryan Dempster
  10-2, 2.66, 126 K, 46 BB, 121.2 IP
10-3, 3.13 ERA, 98 K, 47 BB, 118 IP
       
LF *Fred Lewis SS Ryan Theriot
3B Jose Castillo 2B *Mike Fontenot
2B #Ray Durham 1B Derrek Lee
C Bengie Molina 3B Aramis Ramirez
CF Aaron Rowand RF Mark DeRosa
RF *John Bowker CF *Jim Edmonds
1B Rich Aurilia LF Reed Johnson
SS #Omar Vizquel C Henry Blanco
P Tim Lincecum P Ryan Dempster

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A great pitching matchup between two All-Stars to end the pre-ASG schedule for 2008.

Lincecum has been everything the Giants hoped he would be; Dempster has been more than the Cubs could ever have hoped. Dempster remains undefeated this season at Wrigley (10-0, 2.58); Lincecum was undefeated on the road until losing to the Mets at Shea this past Tuesday. He's still a none-too-shabby 7-1, 2.23 away from AT&T Park.

Giants have dropped six in a row. Cubs (57-37) are on track to have the franchise's best record at the All-Star break since 1969, when the club went 61-37.

Regarding Sunday's lineup, Henry Blanco gets his first start and sees his first game action in two weeks. Mike Fontenot starts for the fourth consecutive game at second base and has now gone 15-for-46 (.326) with a .436 OBP and .761 slugging percentage in his last 16 games.

Otherwise...

The blister than kept Kerry Wood out of the action Saturday and left Carlos Marmol out on the mound to allow the Giants to erase a five-run, ninth-inning deficit for the first time in 23 years will also keep Wood out of any action in the All-Star Game.

Update: Carlos Marmol, who has a 9.37 ERA in 20 appearances since June 1st, has been named to replace Wood on the NL All-Star roster for Tuesday night's game. Reader Brian points out that the selection is based on Marmol's having been the pitcher with the next highest vote total.

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Comments

HENRY!

I'm hearing at another board (non cub themed) that Marmol was selected to replace Wood.

Me no likey.

Confirmed on cubs.com: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=2...

It's because he was the next highest on the player's ballot.

I don't think he'll play though, with Lou on the bench having said that he'll get a break over the All-Star Break.

We can only hope.

Len and Bob confirm

Also a win today would be a new highwater mark at 21 games over. No easy task against lincecum.

Maybe the powers-that-be can schedule Marmol to throw a few innings down in the Dominican League this week as well before heading to Houston for Friday's game?

Guess if Lou tried to pass Kevin Hart off as Marmol the league might get suspicious.

Not much you can do about this one, just outpitched by Lincecum. Dempster wasn't great but did ok. Another series won. I'll take it.

Now Carlos Marmol on the All Star team? Thats ridiculous. I'd hate to see him actually have to pitch and most of baseball ask 'this guy is an all star?' I mean we already have Fuku who will probably look silly in his at bat.

I guess that's why they call him The Freak.

cant help but wonder if fuku starts and doesn't make that derosa play...

West Michigan Bottom 1st

Justin Henry singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Guyer.
Kody Kaiser doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Guyer. Justin Henry to 3rd.
Joseph Tucker grounds out, shortstop Nate Samson to first baseman Rebel Ridling. Justin Henry scores. Kody Kaiser to 3rd.
Alex Avila out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Guyer. Kody Kaiser scores.
Ron Bourquin strikes out swinging.

2 H , 2 ER, 1 K

West Michigan Bottom 2nd

Cory Middleton strikes out swinging.
Hayden Parrott singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jonathan Wyatt.
Keith Stein singles on a line drive to center fielder Jonathan Wyatt. Hayden Parrott to 2nd.
Pitcher Change: Robert Hernandez replaces Scott Eyre.

2 H, 0 R, 1 K

I hate the way we lost this game. Not that we can say that Dero's play cost us the game but if stays in front of it, it's likely we win.

Thanks to Lou Piniella making him his everyday shortstop over the dead bodies of the Cubs organization, at this moment Ryan Theriot leads all MLB (qualified) shortstops in both batting average (.320) and OBP (.394).

Not bad!

Not good either

When you consider his slugging, defense and baserunning. But for Ryan Theriot, its been better than anyone could have expected

Actually it is good.

His job on the offense is not to hit for power. It's to get on base and score, and he's done that a lot. His defense is not exceptional but it has been adequate. His base running started off badly but he has actually settled down and run more efficiently the past 2 months.

I guess you have to be a longtime Cubs fan to appreciate him, but by historic standards 'Riot is an OBP machine.

Cubs SS, BA, OBP

Banks     .274 .330
DeJesus   .261 .330
Dunston   .267 .295
Kessinger .255 .315

Theriot   .291 .359

i am glad to see marmol made it by a rule

not by managers choice , hopefully he sits.

i guess the cubs have alot to say about
national league winning.

Does anybody know what the rotation is going to look like after the break?

lilly ,zambrano, dempster, harden,marquis

as of now

is the starting pitching match-up for the All-star game.

Lincecum got screwed.

Here is a link to a table that shows the ranking of the top NL Starting Pitchers, using their rankings in VORP, ERA+, and Win Shares. Lincecum is first in VORP, 2nd in ERA+, and 1st in Win Shares. That he is first in win shares while playing on the Giants should be a big enough sign.

By these rankings, Sheets has been the 5th best starter in the league. Also, by these rankings, Hamels and Peavy got screwed, and Dempster got lucky, in the results of the all-star selections.

Everyone knows that in choosing All-star Starting Pitchers you go by these 3 categories:

1) Wins
2) ERA
3) Profile photo (the goofier the better)

Lincecume started Sunday, he wasn't in contention for the starting spot. Someone posted it earlier but there were only 3 guys Hurdle was considering starting that could go 2-3 innings, I think Sheets, Z and someone else.

 

 

True... didn't think about Lincecum starting yesterday.

Sheets isn't a bad option by any means.

Completely random... but who would have thought that Kyle Lohse would be one of the better pitchers in the NL?

I seem to recall an entertaining PChat during last year's derby. Are we on for a repeat?

Theriot could hit 25 HR's at the break and people would bitch he strikes out to much.

For the life of me, I don't know why. Of every Cub regular (let's set the bar at 150 AB's this season), Theriot has struck out the least (33 times). In fact, Fukudome has struck out TWICE AS MUCH as Theriot. And Theriot's has 20 more AB's.

I suppose you're just trying to start an argument for the sake being this blog's public Theriot defender.

The argument I'd make is that his BABIP may not stay at .350 all year. He's got a pretty good LD%, but that might still be hard to maintain. His OBP has always been pretty tightly connected to his BA. If he keeps hitting, he'll be fine. If he goes through another second half swoon like 2007, he won't.

"His OBP has always been pretty tightly connected to his BA"

and that is his main "problem".

theriot has a "good eye"...but he pretty much just uses to find something he wants to hit, not to get on base by any means necessary.

he's gonna try to put the ball in play yet he's got bottom-basement power...

if he finds more dirt and grass than gloves...he should be fine. he's got so little room for error or bad luck hitting like that, though.

that said...his bat control is amazing. it's pretty much all he's got besides his complementing slightly-above-average speed as far as hit plate performance goes.

And his batting average is too tightly connected to the number of hits he gets per at bat... What OBP is not connected to BA when it constitutes the majority of it?

The difference between Theriot's BA and OBP is 74 points. Other than the Pujols and Dunns of the world who walk at outrageous rates, this is right in line with pretty much all of the top OBP guys in the NL. Derrek Lee's difference is 66, Utley is 80, Holliday 84, Hanley Ramirez 80, McCann 75, Nady 56, Reyes 65, Hudson 57, Rowand 68, etc, etc.

He has a good eye and uses it to find good pitches to hit. Does it really matter if he gets on base more with hits than walks compared to others? I mean he gets on base right? 7th best OBP in the NL last time I checked. So you want him to walk more and maintain his BA? So basically it sounds like you want our shortstop to be Chipper, Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, Burrell, or Giles since these are the only guys getting on base at a better clip right now. I'd love to have those guys in the lineup too, but last time I checked none can play short, few can run at all, and all cost a ton of money.

Does it really matter if he gets on base more with hits than walks compared to others? I mean he gets on base right?
____________

I think the point is that his BABIP is very high. If his hits stop falling in then his OBP will go down, but that's true of anyone. The difference between Theriot's hits that keep his BA up and the folks you listed is that they smash doubles into the gap, homers out of the park, and don't rely on singles falling in to maintain their BA. Theriot gets those hits, too, but his are dispersed between singles that sneak through the infield or bloop into shallow right (speaking in generalities here)

I just don't think we can sit here and say there is no way that he can't maintain his current pace. People said this last week when his BA dipped to .306 and now it's back up to .320. And DeRosa maintained a .343 BABIP for all of last year. The major league leader last year was Chone Figgins at .399, he had 24 doubles, 6 triples, and 3 homeruns last year. He reaches more than Theriot does on infield and bunt hits, but he is a singles hitter who maintained an astronomically high BABIP for a season. And I don't think doubles and homeruns are easier to hit than singles anyway.

Now I am guessing Theriot's BABIP will drop over the rest of the summer, as will his BA and OBP. I doubt he will end up at .320 to end the year. But I think he will hit .300 with a .360 OBP, play good defense and add some speed to the lineup, all for very little money. And I am happy with that.

I agree

That's just what you would expect from a really good hitter with virtually no power. BABIP isn't something that's very useful in evaluating hitters. It's more of a pitching stat, where very low BABIP is a red flag.

That's just what you would expect from a really good hitter with virtually no power. BABIP isn't something that's very useful in evaluating hitters. It's more of a pitching stat, where very low BABIP is a red flag.
---------

I'm no stat-expert, but if BABIP is indicative of a pitcher's success, it would seem to be an indication of a hitter's success. If Theriot had hit a bunch of at-'em balls instead of dropping in, his low BABIP would make us think he would improve to the mean, just as an abnormally high BABIP would make us think his luck will end soon. It could also mean that a low BABIP means poor/weak contact, and high BABIP means good/hard contact.

I wouldn't think that a no power hitter would have a naturally high BABIP when compared to an equal hitter with more power. I don't get that at all.

"So basically it sounds like you want our shortstop to be Chipper, Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, Burrell, or Giles since these are the only guys getting on base at a better clip right now."

not even slightly.

not even close.

im saying the guy's game is putting a ball in play. his "eye" is used to wait for a pitch he wants to swing at. the guy's hitting zone is not bonds-like and small...its kinda big.

if he finds more dirt than gloves he'll look good...if he doesnt, he wont.

THAT is what im saying. and while his bat control is awesome, that's a hell of an unstable crutch to lay almost all of your entire batting game on. all it would take is a bad week or two (especially in the leadoff slot) to make awesome into ugly...especially since all he does is hit singles.

So what the fuck do you want from our shortstop? Since I am not even close in understanding you, just go ahead and tell me. Be succinct. Because everytime you write something more you just add something else that Theriot does not have. Now he does't have a Bonds-like strike zone. So Theriot's "crutch" is that he gets a lot of hits?

this isnt about what i want.

it's about what the guy is. this is about theriot, not his replacement.

i don't recall demanding his removal or mentioning who "should" be SS.

where you going with this?

Where am I going with this? You bitch about Theriot every day on here and have been doing so for a long time. Hitting, defense, base running, you never seem to run out of ways to criticize his game. And it never seems to be about what Theriot is, but rather what he isn't. So where are you going with it? If you don't want his removal, are happy with him, and don't want anything different, then why does pretty much every thread have you ripping on him in some fashion? Give it a rest man.

no i dont bitch about theriot every day...or every other day...and it's more about what he IS than what he isn't so i dunno where that is coming from.

yes, i call him a singles hitter with average D. that's his thing. that's not bitching. he is what he is. i have absolutely no control over that.

i think i give a pretty damn fair and realistic view of the man and have for years.

why can't i talk about the guy? ive said PLENTY about what he is...way more than than what he isn't.

and if im speaking the truth about the guy what the hell does it matter?

i'm not ripping on him...he is what he is and that is HIS own doing.

you want me to jump down your throat about how you want him to be the allstar shortstop and best thing in town? no, of course not...cuz it's retarded for me to say you're saying that.

and no, im not gonna give it a rest cuz you're not comfortable with the way i talk about theriot as long as its a topic of discussion.

I hope that Lou finds some places to rest the Riot during the 2nd half - for whatever reason, he really slumped last year. OTOH, he likely has next to no confidence in Cedeno, so his options may be limited. Soto is another concern, but I'm probably getting paranoid over his mounting playing time as well.

(as of today, 95 games)July 14, 2008
Milwaukee 52-43 +9

(one year ago)July 14, 2007
Milwaukee 50-40 +10

(after 95 games)July 19, 2007
Milwaukee 54-41 +13

HOT
JOSH DONALDSON (A ADVANCED [promoted] STOCKTON PORTS) 7/17 .412 .444 .824 1.266 2 hr 8 rbi

HOT
ERIC PATTERSON (AAA SACRAMENTO RIVER CATS) 9/19 .474 .524 1.053 1.576 3 hr 8 rbi

NOT
MATT MURTON (OAKLAND A'S) 1/12 .083 .154 .083 .237 2 rbi
MM is still making weak contact, mostly topped infield groundouts.

The point is Wes it doesn't matter what Theriot does people will complain that he still is shitty.

No... not really.

See - last year he was shitty, so people complained about him being shitty. This year he has not been shitty, and people have stopped complaining, though many are still wary that he will not be able to maintain this production.

Theriot's numbers have been more than adequate this year. I just hope that he can maintain it.

That's because he is shitty. He hits a ton of singles, barely fields his position, gets caught stealing more than 50% of the time, and his arm makes Eckstein's look like Dunston's. Pretty sure that when I hear people say he's one of the best SS in the game, I get a little sick inside. Yeah, he's got a lot more to offer than Hanley or Rollins. It's all of those intagibles, like diving after any ball hit to his left. That's fun!

when I hear people say he's one of the best SS in the game,

Umm... who said that?

Yeah, he's got a lot more to offer than Hanley or Rollins.

And who said that?

You would have a lot more credibility if you didn't create strawmen so that you can then knock them down.

Bob Brenly said that. There's your strawman.
The second quote was sarcasm.

Well... if Bob Brenly said it, why are you pretending that people said it here?

No one around here has said that Theriot is one of the best SS's in the game.

Yeah, he hits a ton of singles, but this year he also gets on base better than any other shortstop in baseball. That's in either league. I don't understand why that's not valuable.

He gets caught stealing half the time, but he's still tied for 5th among shortstops in steals.

Yeah, he doesn't hit for a ton of power, but why are you pining for power from the SS position when this team leads the NL in runs and slugging? Do we need so much more power that our SS has to hit 15 or 20 HR's? Why is power out of the leadoff spot a necessity, anyway? Wait until Soriano comes back and then you can feel fuzzy all over again.

He gets caught stealing half the time, but he's still tied for 5th among shortstops in steals.

First, this season he is 15 for 24 (62.5%)... but the number of steals becomes pretty irrelevant when you get caught a lot.

With that said, he has been much better stealing bases since the beginning of June (6 of 7).

Then what's the point where more steals are worse than being efficient? What percentage is that? I'm honestly asking because I just don't know. To me, 15 for 24 is a bigger net positive than 4 for 6.

I could certainly be convinced that it isn't, though.

sabermetric rule of thumb is anything under 70% is hurting your teams scoring chances.

 

Sabermetric rule of thumb is that anything less than 1 per hand is substandard.

So we're aruging about 3 steals, then. If he's 18/24 instead of 15/24, it's fine. Is it really THAT big of a difference?

Its actually closer to 75%. Its 74.something, I can't remember the exact percentage. Here is a good quick article on it.

But basically when you factor in all of Theriot's caught stealing with all the other baserunning blunders he has had this year, he is definitely hurting his team on the bases. Although I'm sure his grit more than makes up for it.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?arti...

"all of the other baserunning blunders"?? Anything to back that up? I don't have that impression at all and I've watched virtually every inning of every game. Maybe you are confusing him with Cedeno...

Or maybe you aren't watching close enough

Wow... so instead of actually responding to the question, you attack WISCGRAD.

Well done.

Yes, what a horrible attack. I hope he is ok

Look... you are the one who refused to support your assertion. WISCGRAD called you on it, and the best you could do was attack him rather than answer his question.

That is quality stuff.

Every team needs to have a few guys who make the league minimum and can still contribute. Theriot's value goes far beyond just his OBP or solid defense. The fact that he does those things on a dirt cheap salary means Hendry can go after bigger name FAs with his remaining dollars.

That was one of the reasons I wasn't very happy to give up Gallagher (but obviously Harden is awesome and I'm glad to have him). The more young, cheap players we can get to contribute in a significant way, the more money Hendry has left to get guys like Soriano, Fukudome, etc.

He does not have solid defense. Its like watching Todd Walker out there. Look at some of the graphs comparing his defensive range compared to other shortstops, he's ranked near the bottom for the past two years. He has to play in at least 4-5 steps just so he can make throws to first. That's why every time you see what should be a routine ball hit to his left, he flops on the ground in some vain effort just to look like he tried. The one thing he is good at judging fly balls hit to his right that go into left field. Other than that, its deplorable. OBP is valuable, but so is defense at one of the most critical positions on the field.

Maybe he was saying that Theriot is clogging up the bases. :)

went 0 for 2 with 2 K's at the Futures Game yesterday. Did anyone watch?

I saw one of his AB's. I think it was his first one against Oakland prospy Trevor Hill. He buried a pretty good slider in the dirt and Wellington flailed at it.

The first K vs. Cahill wasnt that bad, he did a good job of working the count which rarely happens in ASG so its nice to see OK plate discipline. That slider Cahill threw was nasty as Wes mentioned. I watched the game until the Cubs come on (which was 1/2 the game) and Cahill was the player I was most impressed by. The 2nd AB you could tell he was trying to drive the ball hard and struck out on 3 or 4 pitches.

The Riot's arm is also NOT worse than Eckstein's. It's not strong, but it's not a rag arm.

I'm right-handed, and I can throw left-handed better than Eckstein can throw right-handed.

"Other than that, its deplorable. OBP is valuable, but so is defense at one of the most critical positions on the field."

It would help if you offered some tangible proof for Theriot's alleged suckiness in the field. Right now you're just farting in the wind, my friend.

Besides, every team needs it's own version of "Scrappy McHustlestein!"

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