Cubs Pwned the First Half

That's nice, real nice gang. Way to go! That's just super duper.

Hmm... how is Theriot 4th in defensive win shares if he is so bad defensively?

And how does he have a positive RAA2?

Really good line on Jeff S. today for Iowa---6 innings, 9 k's---that's what we'er looking for---look for him in relief this year

What is it with Samninja getting promoted after struggling and doing good at the next level? That's great news. Can any of you guys think of this happening with another big name pitcher?

"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that"

HJS

Pretty amazing numbers, especially considering the 3 or 4 losses of the last 2 weeks that probably should have been wins. If Harden and Soriano (and everyone else) can stay healthy, this team should be pretty set for the second half.

It just so happens to be my luck that I'm moving to Italy next week, but I'll do my best to keep up with the Cubs and TCR.

Thanks for the post, Rob. Really interesting stuff on the first half.

And about Samardzija, it really is weird -- but at the same time, thrilling. It's common knowledge that players in AAA have more bat control than those in AA so if Jeff is starting to miss bats with consistence, it might be more of a direct effect of his performance and talent (he does have a really good fastball) than a fluke. Really good news, all in all.

I don't think anyone has mentioned any of this yet. The All-Star Blog reports that:

1. Geovany Soto loved catching Rich Harden for the first time and thinks he's going to be a huge addition. You won't see any of that on tape because some camera guy next to us kept turning his lights on and off during our answer trying to get lighting for his guy. I gave him an evil glare. He didn't care.

[rats!]

....

4. Carlos Marmol is happy to have a few days off. He feels that his recent run of ineffectiveness might be because of the **number of innings** he's pitched recently...

[Uh,oh! cue the theme music]

Batting order for tonight's HR Derby

1. Dan Uggla
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Evan Longoria
4. Chase Utley
5. Lance Berkman
6. Justin Morneau
7. Ryan Braun
8. Josh Hamilton

MLB - PED =
So far in 2008, the homers-per-game rate is 1.96, which is only slightly lower than last year's rate (1.97) and the lowest since 1993 (1.78).

Speaking of gay-
3 doors down for hr derby entertainment?

Does anyone else think Penny Marshall is hot?

Given these stats, what theories do people have for the lousy road record?

Lack of uppers. And Theriot being worn out after driving the Scrap-mobile from ballpark to ballpark. That's what I would blame it on.

Hmmmm Khalil Green he of a career .249 BA, and .305 OBP. Hey he sucks but he can hit HR's....whoppee frickin do.

We looking for the second coming of Alex Gonzalez again? A guy that will hit .250 (maybe) and hit 15 HR's? Yawn....passsssssss.

Green has had 6 years to figure things out and is on the wrong side of 28, and is showing no signs of improvement. Yeah he had 97 RBI last year but he still hit in the .250's and it screams "career year" where teams will waste time and money hoping for that year again only to be disappointed that it will never happen again. I can see if he was raising his average and cutting down his strikeouts but he is actually getting worse across the board. He sucks big time.

The HR Derby is such a waste of energy and attention. And will someone please kill Chris Berman.

Oh, and could we possibly here more about Josh Hamilton's drug problems...

(Yes, cross-country flights make me cranky/crankier...)

Unless Lou changes the pattern, Geovany Soto is on pace to play 150 games this season.

Fukudome and Soto batting 8th and 9th for the NL tonight.

If all goes well in pre-game BP this weekend at Houston, Alfonso Soriano could bat lead-off and DH in the three AZL Cubs games that are scheduled while the Cubs are in Phoenix next week. Of course it would mean getting up pretty early in the morning (AZL game times are 10:30), but it would allow Soriano to get four ABs each day in the three minor league games without having to leave his team and go to Iowa, Tennessee, or Daytona, and he could even DH in the AZL Cubs game Wednesday morning, and if he feels up to it, get reactivated from the DL in time to play LF in the Cubs-D'backs game Wednesday night.

Or if he needs a few more ABs, he could remain in Arizona for another day or two after the Cubs return to Chicago and go down to Tucson and get some AAA ABs when the Iowa Cubs play the Tucson Sidewinders at Tucson Electric Park Tuesday night 7/22 through Friday night 7/25 (next week).

As for Rich Hill, with the Iowa Cubs in Tucson the week of July 22, he could get one more start with the AZL Cubs at Fitch Park (probably this Thursday) and then rejoin the I-Cubs in Tucson and get a start versus the Sidewinders on Tuesday or Wednesday.

And Scott Eyre could do something similar. He pitched (ineffectively) in a couple of games at Peoria this past weekend, but if he's not ready to get reactivated immediately after the ASB, he could throw in a couple of AZL Cubs games next week (like maybe Monday and Tuesday or Monday and Wednesday) while the Cubs are in Phoenix, and then if he's ready to be reactivated, he could travel back to Chicago with the Cubs after the final game of the D'backs series Wednesday night.

Or if he needs more rehab work, he could go down to Tucson after the Cubs leave town and throw in a couple of games for AAA Iowa, like maybe Thursday night 7/24 and/or Friday night 7/25 (the I-Cubs will still be playing in Tucson for a couple of more days after the Cubs have left Phoenix), and then rejoin the Cubs in Chicago. 

Koyie Hill in his last 15 games at Iowa: 418/467/818 with six HR, two doubles, and a triple, and five BB over 60 PA. He's also thrown out 36% of opposing base stealers, best among the #1 catchers on the Cubs full season minor league clubs except Josh Donaldson (who just got traded to OAK). So I am fairly sure that Koyie Hill will be brought up after the rosters expand on September 1st to be the Cubs #3 catcher.

Lest anyone think Welington Castillo (who played in the Futures Game) will get a September call-up, Castillo has committed six errors and has allowed 15 passed balls (with 32% CS) in just over half a season in 2008. He led Cubs minor league catchers with 13 PB and 13 errors last season when he threw out 40% of opposing base stealers, so he's already exceeded his PB number from last season and his CS% has gone down.

I like Castillo. He's a talented young catcher, but also VERY raw. His bat is actually more-advanced than his receiving skills right now. He's probably two years away.

AZ PHIL: Since the Cubs have now traded their #1 pitching prospect for a pitcher who is either brilliant, or hurt and can't pitch, can you please tell us who is the next in line?

In your opinion, who in the minors, has the best shot of being a 1-4 slotted pitcher in the majors within the next year or two?

I had thought it was Pawelek, but it does not seem like it will happen that soon. Veal? Still has control issues. JEff Russell? The Notre Dame wide-out? Not enough pitches developed yet. Kevin Hart? From what I've seen in-person, he has no confidence against major-league hitters.

Gallagher at only 22 years old, had some terrific stuff, and a bright future in the majors.

Please tell us what's down the pike. Thanks.

Nice usage of pwned, btw.

The Cubs will add a third catcher in September to allow Lou to PR for his catchers and to provide an in-house option for the post-season in case something happens to Soto or Blanco, and I'm just saying (for better or worse and whether you like it or not) it will be Koyie Hill. I just wanted you to be prepared for when it happens.

AZ PHIL: Since the Cubs have now traded their #1 pitching prospect for a pitcher who is either brilliant, or hurt and can't pitch, can you please tell us who is the next in line? In your opinion, who in the minors, has the best shot of being a 1-4 slotted pitcher in the majors within the next year or two?

I had thought it was Pawelek, but it does not seem like it will happen that soon. Veal? Still has control issues. JEff Russell? The Notre Dame wide-out? Not enough pitches developed yet. Kevin Hart? From what I've seen in-person, he has no confidence against major-league hitters.

Gallagher at only 22 years old, had some terrific stuff, and a bright future in the majors.

Please tell us what's down the pike. Thanks.

========================

E-MAN: I had rated Sean Gallagher as the Cubs #1 pitching prospect coming into the this season, but now that he's gone, I would rate the Cubs Top 5 pitching prospects (AA and AAA levels only) as:

1. Jose Ceda, RHP 

2. Kevin Hart, RHP 

3. James Russell, LHP 

4. Donald Veal, LHP  

5. Jeff Samardzija, RHP  

Ceda was moved back to the bullpen after getting promoted from Daytona to Tennessee (he was used as a starter at Daytona to force him to use all of his pitches), and he has been dominating so far at AA. He could be as good as Marmol, but like Marmol (recently), Ceda is prone to command problems where he can't throw strikes. But so far that problem has not surfaced at AA. His best pitches are a 98 MPH hummer with a mid-80's slider. He probably was told to throw a two-seamer and a change when he was used as a starter, but those aren't his best pitches. He has had some shoulder problems off and on over the past couple of years, but he has not needed surgery. It is a concern, however.

Hart is a definite MLB rotation starter prospect, although the Cubs will probably trade him. He's not as valuable when he works out of the bullpen because he can't take full advantage of his arsenal/repetoire and stamina, where he can (if necessary) go through a batting order three or four times and where he can maintain the velocity on his fastball up to and beyond 100 pitches. He has a clean medical history, and he can be an innings-eater if used as a starter.

Russell has a plus-change and curve, and he paints both sides of the plate with his fastball. He really knows how to work hitters. VERY smart pitcher. He probably learned a lot about pitching from his dad (Jeff), who had a lengthy MLB career. He is very advanced for somebody his age (22) and it's amazing that he is already at AA when he has less than one year of pro experience. He was the Cubs 14th round draft pick in 2007 out of the University of Texas, but got "3rd round money" to sign just before the August 15th deadline. If he stays healthy, he will be an MLB middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Veal is considered the top Cubs pitching prospect by one scout I know from another organization, just because he has such a high ceiling. Actually, he's high risk, high reward, and high maintenance. He's like an Italian sports car. When he's "on" he has a plus-curve, a fastball with movement, and a deceptive change, too. His big problem is that he gets out of whack fairly easily. He has problems repeating his delivery and sometimes he'll suddenly change his release point in the middle of a game. And when he gets into a jam, it tends to snowball and he has difficulty extricating himself. He throws a lot of pitches-per-inning, and he can single-handedly burn out a bullpen. Personally, I believe he will eventually end up as a lefty reliever (Arthur Rhodes-type).

Samardzija has that 94 MPH power-sinker, but he has had difficulty finding secondary stuff that works. I believe he is now throwing a slider and a splitter, and they must be coming along, because he has pitched well so far at Iowa. Like Derek Lowe, Samardzija is a "pitch-to-contact" guy who gets a lot of ground balls when he's on his game, and moving up to AAA should help him get better results just because the infield defense is so much better as you move up through the minor leagues. Better infield defense should help his confidence, too. But he needs to develop his secondary stuff and make it work consistently if he wants to be an MLB rotation starter. But if he can't he could still be an MLB middle-reliever.

Wow, thanks for the update as always, AZ Phil. It sounds unfortunate that the Cubs are likely to trade Hart primarily because he's not a BP guy, you'd think they'd like to keep him around awhile to see what shakes out before the '09 season.

Thanks much, AZ PHIL. "His big problem is that he gets out of whack fairly easily."

This is the problem, as you cite, with Italian sports cars!

balls when he's on his game

At Tennessee 60% of his outs came on flyballs ---was their infield defense really THAT bad?

It's reversed at Iowa, where 60% of his outs have come on groundballs.

Would really like to know what's changed.

Submitted by navigator on Tue, 07/15/2008 - 1:26pm.

balls when he's on his game

At Tennessee 60% of his outs came on flyballs ---was their infield defense really THAT bad?

It's reversed at Iowa, where 60% of his outs have come on groundballs. Would really like to know what's changed.

============================

NAVIGATOR: I remember when Samardzija was at Minor League Camp in March he was throwing a lot of sliders (mostly hanging sliders) and some kind of change up that he couldn't keep down (it might have been he was trying to learn the splitter, but I'm not sure), but whatever pitches he was throwing he wasn't getting ground balls with them.

Maybe now that he is at Iowa the Cubs are letting him throw more two-seamers, although I would think he will need to mix-in the secondary stuff at least occasionally if he ever wants to make it as an MLB starter.

The fact that he got nine Ks in his last start could indicate he's getting punch-outs with the slider and/or the splitter.

Submitted by Dmac on Tue, 07/15/2008 - 1:21pm.

Wow, thanks for the update as always, AZ Phil. It sounds unfortunate that the Cubs are likely to trade Hart primarily because he's not a BP guy, you'd think they'd like to keep him around awhile to see what shakes out before the '09 season.

==============================

DMAC: I believe if Hendry has a chance to get somebody like Brian Fuentes or Damaso Marte, that Kevin Hart would be a part of the deal. Jose Ceda, too.

I still think Hendry will virtually sell the farm system if he thinks he can improve the Cubs even marginally going into the stretch. He'll go for any little edge he can get.

Remember last year when Hendry traded Scott Moore, Rocky Cherry and Jake Renshaw for Steve Trachsel? He WAY overpaid for Trax, and he didn't seem to care.

A painful memory to be sure - yeah, we all remember that fire sale. I would hope he'd be just a little more circumspect this time around, but probably not.

Levine was just on ESPN 1k and said he would be "surprised" if Jimbo did not get a speedy OF who can hit. I dont know why Jimbo is in the market for one? Is Soriano's injury worse than they are letting on? Did Jimmy Baseball get caught using something he stole from the LaRussa Institute for Performance Enhancement in Sports? Is Fukudome shoulder bothering him? The only name Levine mentioned was that of Scott Hairston, who would be an improvement over Cedeno in the 2nd RH off the bench role if they want Dero backing up SS. Though he has been productive this year and should be cheap next year so I dont know why the Padres would let go of him for something that does not have alot of value.

Would Randy Winn be available on a crap Giants team? Speed, SH, and some power. Plus, nice MLB experience.

Z to pitch innings 3-4 according to ESPN 1k. Also Lincecum will not be playing due to being hospilzed with the flu. I am assuming Hurdle's plan is:

1&2: Sheets
3&4: Z
5: Volquez
6: Wilson
7: Wagner
8: Valverde
9: Lidge

# 81

if only we had a decent hitting outfielder who
was fast and played great defense we could just
bring him up from minors and not trade away
those prospects

Submitted by Q-Ball on Wed, 07/16/2008 - 8:35am.

AZ Phil, where would you rank the Cubs HITTING prospects, or are you saving that for a midseason Top-10 post? (which I would love BTW).

====================================

Q-BALL: I think Josh Vitters is proving that when he's healthy (he had mono last year and tendinitis in his hand this past Spring), he is a primo hitting prospect. Whether he can remain at 3B remains to be seen, but he's only 18 so I guess there is plenty of time to figure that out. Personally, I think he will end up at 1B, but we'll see. But he is the Cubs #1 position player prospect right now.

Welington Castillo has a lot of potential and he's a very confident kid, but he is also VERY raw and will need some time to develop. His bat will probably get him to the big leagues before his glove, although he should eventually become a plus-defensive catcher. But right now he needs to work on his receiving skills.

Tyler Colvin has been moved very fast through the Cubs system, and has been young for his league everywhere he's been. So I wouldn't be too concerned about his slump at AA in 2008. I would be concerned about the Cubs trying to play him in RF, though, because the "arm strengthening program" the Cubs put him on post-2006 resulted in a sore arm that has plagued him ever since (he played 1B in HS and LF at Clemson, but he does have the speed to handle CF, although he is by no means a "Gold Glove"-type defender).

Tony Thomas is a concern because he is a poor defensive second-baseman and so he has to put up some stellar numbers for a lead-off hitter if he is still to be considered a hot prospect, and he isn't doing that right now at Daytona. At least Eric Patterson has the athleticism to maybe play CF. With Thomas, it's probably 2B or bust.

One name I would definitely add is 3B Marquez Smith (Tyler Colvin's teammate at Clemson). Playing both 2B and 3B (but mostly 2B), Smith committed 13 errors from Opening Day through mid-June at Peoria. But since being moved from 2B back to 3B (his natural position) a liitle over a month ago, he has committed just ONE error combined between Peoria and Daytona (and that's going back to June 14th). So in over a month of games, Smith has committed just ONE error. And Smith has legitimate HR power, too. He has hit 299/374/516 with 14 HR & 53 RBI, 19 doubles, five triples, and 38/67 BB/K in 375 PA (90 games) at Peoria and Daytona so far in 2008. He is a stocky 5'10 or 5'11, but he has plus bat speed and really puts the hammer on the ball, with the type of swing that should result in a lot of "long flies." He reminds me of a young Jim Ray Hart.

I also think Jovan Rosa will benefit defensively from moving back to 3B (his natural position) from 1B, and once he learns to elevate his swing and turn on the ball he should start to hit some HRs (he's a "doubles machine" right now). And Dylan Johnston is back on the prospect radar again after moving to RF from SS. Johnston has put on a lot of weight (hopefully mostly muscle!) and he could develop into a big-time left-handed power hitter as he matures (he's only 21). Both Rosa and Johnston are at Peoria.

2008 Supplemental 1st-round draft pick Ryan Flaherty (compensation pick for losing FA Jason Kendall) bears watching, especially if he can stay at SS (he played SS at Vanderbilt, but he played 2B for Team USA). And Josh Harrison (U. of Cincinnati) may actually turn out to be a better 2B prospect than Tony Thomas (but that's still TBD). Both Flaherty and Harrison are presently at Boise.

The Cubs drafted and signed several really big dudes last month (Ryan Keedy, Jericho Jones, Rebel Ridling, and Sean Hoorelbeke), and if one of them were to develop into a HR hitter, he could have a possible MLB future. We'll see.

I also like what I have seen so far of Matt Cerda, the Cubs 2008 4th round pick out of Oceanside HS in suburban San Diego. Cerda was moved from SS back to catcher last month at Fitch Park (he last played catcher in Little League), and he has made some nice strides with his defense behind the plate already (he picked a runner off base in an AZL game the other day). Offensively, he reminds me of a young left-handed hitting Craig Biggio. For an 18-year old, he has an advanced approach at the plate, and he knows the strike zone (unfortunately not all of the AZL umpires do!). He has some power potential, too. 

Among the Latin players at Fitch Park, RF Nelson Perez is quite a specimen. A protege of Alfonso Soriano, Perez looks like a left-handed hitting Sammy Sosa, and (as you might expect) he has plus-power. He also has probably one of the three-best OF arms in the organization (Ryan Harvey and Kyler Burke have the other ones). On the negative side, Perez sometimes has a problem catching the ball in the outfield, and he is an EXTREME first-ball fastball hitter. That's because he struggles to hit breaking balls and change-ups (unless he knows what's coming), and he's "dead meat" when he has two strikes. 

Submitted by Dr. aaron b on Wed, 07/16/2008 - 11:58am.

Have you heard any scuttlebutt about Kyler Burke or Ryan Harvey finally making the mound transitions they seem destined for? Both guys were first round picks and both guys are really struggling with the sticks.

================================

DR AARON B: No I havent. But both probably should seriously consider it, especially Burke, who is struggling to hit .130 at Boise (and he was there last year, too.),

BTW, Kyler Burke does lead all Cubs minor leaguers in OF assists with 13 (the next most is eight by Sam Fuld), and Burke has done that in only 2-1/2 months, because he spent about a month at Extended Spring Training after he got demoted from Peoria in May.