Cubs Hits of the Past 14 Weeks

A look at the ten Cubs hits from the season so far that did the most to enhance the team's chances of winning, according to FanGraphs' Win Probability Added statistic.

#10.) May 11th, 7th inning v. Arizona, man on first, one out, Cubs trailing the Diamondbacks, 4-2. Facing former Cub Juan Cruz, Reed Johnson cracks a two-run homer to tie the game, which the home team will go on to win 6-4, after Daryle Ward delivers a two-run double one inning later. Johnson homer = WPA .321

#9.) May 2nd, 9th inning at St. Louis, man on second, one out, Cubs trail the Cardinals, 3-1. Jason Isringhausen is in for the Cards, trying to preserve a 3-1 St. Louis lead for starter Adam Wainwright, but Alfonso Soriano will have none of it, clobbering an Isringhausen pitch for a game-tying two-run shot. Chad Fox, who clearly has no sense of drama in addition to his physical challenges, winds up serving a game-winning two-run homer to Skip Schumacher in the 11th inning. Soriano homer = WPA .342

#8.) April 23rd, 10th inning at Colorado, men on first and second, two outs, Cubs and Rox are tied, 6-6. The Cubs get two men aboard for Ryan Theriot, who lines a single to right field that scores Mike Fontenot with the lead and eventual winning run, extending a Cubs winning streak to six games. Theriot single = WPA .351

The countdown continues after the jump.

#7.) June 20th, 9th inning v. White Sox, none on, none out. Entering a game that's tied 3-3, Sox setup-man Scott Linebrink, who had been virtually unhittable to that point in the season, makes a mistake, and Aramis Ramirez hits it. Far. Cubs win! Cubs win! Sox lose! Sox lose! And Hawk Harrelson goes into that no-talking thing which leads you to believe that spontaneous combustion is just around the corner. Ramirez homer = WPA .358

#6.) May 30th, 7th inning v. Colorado, man on second, one out. The Cubs spot Aaron Cook a 9-1 lead through five-and-a-half innings, then storm back with three runs in the sixth inning and four more in the bottom of the seventh, when DeRosa steps to the plate against Manny Corpas with Jim Edmonds perched out at second base. DeRosa tags a two-run shot to put the Cubs up, 10-9, and Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood make the lead stand up. DeRosa homer = WPA .359

#5.) April 9th, 15th inning at Pittsburgh, bases loaded, two out. In the second of back-to-back extra-inning games against the Pirates, the Cubs try to salvage a contest they led 2-0 going into the last of the eighth. After taking a 4-2 lead with a pair of runs in the 14th inning only to allow the Bucs to tie the game with two runs of their own in the bottom of the frame, the Cubs load the bags and give Felix Pie a chance to become a hero...which he does. Pie dumps a single into left-center field, scoring Kevin Hart and Ryan Theriot and securing the 6-4 victory. Pie single = WPA .387

#4.) March 31st, 9th inning v. Milwaukee, men on first and second, none out. Kosuke Fukudome could contribute 15 productive seasons to the Cubs and not duplicate the drama of his first Opening Day in a Chicago uniform. With the Cubs down 3-0 in the bottom of the 9th inning and new Brewers closer Eric Gagne in to protect the lead, Derrek Lee singles to right, Aramis Ramirez works Gagne for a walk, and Fukudome mashes his way into Cubbie folklore. Fukudome homer = WPA .454

#3.) June 12th, 9th inning v. Atlanta, none on, one out. About a month after the Cubs picked Jim Edmonds and his .178 batting average off the scrap heap, Edmonds cracks a game-tying home run off of Blaine Boyer, paving the way for the Cubs to win a 3-2 decision in 11 innings. Edmonds homer = WPA .466

#2.) April 9th, 14th inning at Pittsburgh, man on first, two out, Cubs and Pirates tied 2-2. Having blown a chance to close out the Pirates in regulation, the Cubs play into the 14th inning at PNC Park. Finally, after Derrek Lee draws a two-out walk from Phil Dumatrait, Aramis Ramirez clubs a two-run blast that seems to ensure a 4-2 Cub win. Only not. (See #5 above.) Ramirez homer = WPA .484

And finally, the #1 Cubs hit in the first half of the '08 campaign according to FanGraphs...

#1.) April 23rd, 9th inning at Colorado, man on first, one out, Cubs trail the Rox, 5-4. The home team is within two outs of defeating the Cubs, when Derrek Lee singles, Felix Pie enters the game as a pinch-runner, and then Aramis Ramirez connects with a pitch from that Corpas character for a two-run shot that gives the Cubs a short-lived 6-5 lead. (The Rockies tie the game in the last of the ninth, giving Ryan Theriot the opportunity to collect the game-winning hit in the 10th; see #8 above.) Ramirez homer = WPA .640

 

Cubs Cumulative WPA Leaders (thru 7/13/08)
1.) Aramis Ramirez 2.46
2.) Kosuke Fukudome 1.75
3.) Derrek Lee 1.57
4.) Alfonso Soriano 1.13
5.) Jim Edmonds 0.64

 

NL Cumulative WPA Leaders (thru 7/13/08)
1.) Lance Berkman, HOU 5.06
2.) Pat Burrell, PHI 4.65
3.) Jason Bay, PIT 3.52
4.) Matt Holliday, COL 3.44
5.) Albert Pujols, STL 3.05

 

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Comments

Aramis Rameriez-Cub all time leader for hr in a season 38.

HUH?!?!?

http://deadspin.com/5026184/sammy-sosa-dissed-by-a...

For a 3B, probably. They botched it.

NON-CORKED home runs.

The only cork around Hack Wilson was from his whiskey bottles.

A-Ram's HR against the Sox won the game...so how is that not the hit that most enhanced the team's chances of winning a game?

WPA measures what the team's probability of winning is after the at-bat (in this case 100%) minus what it was before, i.e., the net increase. So even though Ramirez's shot was the game-winner, as the home team in a tied game, the Cubs already had a better than 50/50 likelihood of victory.

On that same page they have an awesome shot of Wood giving the big F-U to someone if you haven't seen in already: http://deadspin.com/5020660/we-who-are-about-to-di...

Thanks. That would've involved reading how the stat works, and well, I just didn't.

We aren't required to RTFA. I checked the Terms of Conditions of Use. We're still safe, Tito!

Don't get me wrong, I am sure that the All-star Cubs could use the extra day of rest, but I am really having a hard time dealing with having to go another day without Cubs baseball...

Rob G. - Something appears to have happened with the post numbers on this page. They no longer appear. There is just # where the numbers used to be...

I think this is already on his radar screen, based on post number # of this thread: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2008/07/16/site-news...

I upgraded our software yesterday but it blew out the custom coding of the numbered comments. I have the tools to correct it now. Hopefully it works, otherwise I have to go back to the old version.

 

I'm a Parks & Recreation Director so I had a hand in naming our City's first off-leash dog park (Wiggly Field). http://www.ci.monroe.wa.us/citygov/depts/parks/par...

There are several off-leash parks by this name throughout the country, but I nailed down the name for our area of the Pacific Northwest.

Go Cubs! Let's keep it going!

you're doing the Lord's work...

unbelievably awesome.

No kidding, I've done a lot of cool things in my parks career, but this has to be hands-down the most satisfying!

All you need now is a brick wall and a warning track so the dogs chasing balls know to stop.

That's a great idea!

That's awesome...is that you in the photo?

It's nice to see some real Cub fans in the area. Here in Seattle, whenever I see a Cubs hat, I give them the "Go Cubs"...nearly every time, they look at me like I'm crazy. Only area I've been to where they don't seem to know the international greeting.

We'll have to stop by the park someday.

Yeah, I was born in Zion, my Italian relatives used to live near Comisky (Sox fans, we always tease each other). I lived in So Cal for jr high through getting married and it was always cool during the 80's to see all the Cub fans come out of the wood-work at Dodger Stadium when the Cubs came to town. It's not been a new phenomenom, the whole Cubs fans throughout the country thing where I've been. Lots of transplants and WGN fans. We moved up here after being married, but had a three year detour in Hobart, Indiana (my adopted handle) then came back here. It was cool to be living back there as I was able to be at the 2003 division clinching doubleheader vs Pittsburgh.

Go Cubs! Yes, check out the park with your dog. The rules sign states: "Welcome to the Friendly Confines of Wiggly Field" :)

Fantastic!!!
Is that you with the German Shepard?

Yep.

^
|
|
|

Hero.

I'll need to make the 40 minute trip up there from Seattle this weekend with our dog. Nice work :)

Think you'll find room in the budget for the warning track and ivy-covered wall?

Yeah, come on up!

Beane got a great haul. Cardenas has the potential to be an impact power bat at 2b which is hard find and Outlaw should a 3 or 4 starter. I wonder what he will do with Duscherser, he is a FA after 09 and in the middle of a career year so his trade value is about as high as it will ever be. They have more than enough young arms to fill the rotation for next year so they dont need him if they are rebuilding. Ellis is likely to be dealt as they have an influx of young 2b's in their system ( Cardenas, Epat, Jameille Weeks) and Beane loves to trade overrated closers and has one in Huston Street. To paraphrase Moneyball, I think we are going to see a few F'ing A's trades in the next weeks

It's Outman, and that's one hell of a baseball name (especially for a pitcher).

This is still a guy with a 4.78 career road ERA, including 5.73 this year, and now he's pitching in that water cooler they call a ballyard in Philly.

Couldn't they just stick Adam Eaton (6.85 home ERA this year) in the cloning machine and save the blue chips?

http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/263

no interest in Khalil Greene
will likely pursue a reliever (Fuentes is mentioned) and maybe a bench bat

Jim Edmonds got married yesterday.

The kicker is that it was actually to a woman. Or a dude named Allison.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.ns...

so what can we expect from fukodome
in the second half am a little worried
about last month seems like he did great
to start the season but the pitching adjusted
and he is still trying to?

but last time cubs went to houston bob\brenley
said that he expected big things from fukadome
as the minute maid park was made for him

it looks like cubs will have a little
more power on the team tonite as in
hoff-power for either hart or cotts.

rokfish = ee cummings ?

Ah, man, this is pretty sad.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/spor...

The winner of the 7th Inning Stretch contest passed. I kind of forgot all about him until I read this.

very sad Brick, the comments section was filled with many touching thoughts and then one that made me laugh through my tears: "In Dustin we Trustin". A World Series for this guy and all the others who didn't live long enough to see it happen.

When I became a father (boys now 12 and 10) I joked to friends that it was so I'd have the comfort of knowing that if I didn't live long enough to see the Cubs win the WS at least my kids would have their own kids who might see it happen.

I hope Hendry doesn't empty the farm system for Fuentes, as AZ Phil mentioned earlier.

Well, save for maybe half a dozen players, who are you that worried about losing - if Fuentes makes a truly competitive advantage (seeing that not one Cub has pitched a complete game this year).

all those fantastic irreplaceable Tim Wilken picks, that's who.

BTW- Ryan Dempster has a complete game this year. He's done a fantastic job so far.

Give up the Tim Wilken gig. The sentiment on this board overwhelmingly has opined that it is WAY too early to pass judgement on his success w/the Cubs, and, you fail to notice that his portfolio of MLB players on current teams, gives him some capital for AT LEAST 3-5 years. But you can have your own. It is wrong, but have at it.

Dempster has thrown one CG. Thanks great "no", or "Navigator", or whatever you are calling yourself now.

HE is the only one who has done so. And we're past 100 games into the season. How many more is he, or anyone, goint to throw?

The specific gravity on this site can be overwhelming.

It's not me passing judgement on Wilken, it's dunderheads like you. The overwhelming sentiment on this board, which you so recently expressed, is that our minor league system is a wasteland.

Make up your fucking mind. If there's only a handful of decent players in our system WHOSE FAULT IS THAT?!!

If you truly believe that Wilken is doing a good job drafting then STFU about how bad our minor league system is.

And WTF with the comment about me, asshole? I've been registered here with the same screen name since day one.

I don't think anyone is saying that our entire system is void of anyone who will ever play good basball. But other than about 10 guys it is void of anyone who has put up great numbers in the minors who is easily projectable as a major leaguer that other teams would be interested in to trade for. Wilkin's picks are largely at the Rookie and A levels and simply are too far away to really be of much interest to other teams (although it is notably that Donaldson was already plucked by the A's). The real test on Wilkin will be in another 1-3 years, where, if he is good, we would expect a higher percentage of those Rookie and A-ballers to have developed into legit AA and AAA prospects that teams would want to trade for that could provide immediate or soon Major League help. I mean if teams could look at our Rookie ball guys and project them as major leaguers, they would have just tried to draft them. You do your best to draft talent coming it and some scouts have a better nack for picking talent that develops better than others. Wilkin has that reputation of picking the "right" guys more often than others. So in a couple of years we will see.

But Wilkin can be respected and his drafts respected and our system still can be considered lacking any major prospects or talent.

Thanks for your great expressive use of the english language. Right back at you, shithead.

I like your circular reasoning, too. And, your scintillating "reports" from the All Star Game. Yawn...

Meant for The Navigator.

The specific gravity on this site can be overwhelming.

Wow. I love the imagery suggested by that comment.

BTW, what is ratio of the weight of a given volume of TCR to pure water? Inquiring minds want to know...

The ratio of the weight of a given volume of liquid to pure water
www.coleparmer.ca/techinfo/techinfo.asp

(Resulted from a Google search Define:"specific gravity")

cant you do what other angry little people who think they're funny and clever and just register timwilkensucks.com or firetimwilken.com

you can entertain the world with your wit and ignore/delete posts that break your world view wide open so you can maintain a supremacy of your online world.

...and when he finally does go you can throw the biggest online pat-yourself-on-the-back fest ever before registering another sucks/fire site.

its the 00's...get with the program.

Okay, it has now been a week since Cashner signed, and there is still no news that has actually arrived in Mesa. Any chance you've seen him down there, AZ Phil? Also, there are four or five players that are really hitting well down there. Any rumors or news of them being moved to Boise?

AZ PHIL has indeed posted that he spotted him at AZL, IIRC.

Yeah, he's listed on the AZL Cubs roster but hasn't played yet. Which is odd because the Cubs said he was supposed to be on a fastrack to Boise after 2-3 weeks at Mesa.

he's been at wrigley field the past week working with roths and other people during down-time.

he'll be in arizona soon enough...

Has he, E-man? Phil's most recent post about Hill from last Saturday says that he hasn't seen him yet. So, he's seen him since then?

Why don't you ask AZ PHIL?

I did! See post # - aw I don't know what f-ing number it is... It's the intitial post you responded to... If you're just trying to be funny, then you've succeeded... I can never tell on posts...

Here you go, "No", or, "NoHit", or "Navigator":

Baseball Prospectus - I'm sure their opinion has no weight either:

"When the Chicago Cubs hired Tim Wilken to be their scouting director, they brought aboard nearly 30 years of scouting experience, and one of the best track records in the game..."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?arti...

Hey now, don't confuse me with this dude. Not sure where that impression is coming from... other than that both our screen name start with "n".

I've also had my screen name since I started with the site years ago.

*finishes up his 10th beer*

THIS GUY...

this guy right here...

he's a good guy.

YOU BACK OFF MAN.

this guy...right here...hahahahhahahahhahahahahaha.

phew.

yeah.

who's hungry?

I assume Eman got confused with cubswinthepennant, bluewater boats and navigator.

 

Things really escalated quickly around here. Can't wait for baseball to start back up. Is Hill in Iowa now?

Rich Hill is slated to start for Daytona tonight. He was supposed to pitch last night, but that was rained out...

"...who are you that worried about losing..."

I was going to attempt to answer this question, until TrollBoy started acting out his Percoset dependency schtick again. But I'm sure that he has that GM slot all ready and waiting for him, just as soon as he cleans out the litterbox upstairs (pssst - your mother's getting very angry at you, better go upstairs and do your chores).

the kid who won the 7th Inning stretch contest last year, passed away.

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=221716&src=152

sorry if it's 3/44.

P (and former catcher) Blake Parker moved to Hi-Daytona after being named to the Midwest All-Star team. He made a brief stop in AAA only because the team was short-handed and playing back-to-back double headers. Not because Lou Piniella is controlling the minor league rosters as someone suggested (*cough *cough VA _____).

P Mitch Atkins promoted to AAA

according to Rotoworld. Its a Right foot strain that lands Liebs on the DL. I guess all the walking around during the break was a shock to his body given all the benchwarming he has done this year.

Submitted by Jace on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 10:55am.

Has he, E-man?

Phil's most recent post about Hill from last Saturday says that he hasn't seen him yet. So, he's seen him since then

==========================

JACE: 1st round pick Andrew Cashner (TCU) threw a pre-game "live" BP yesterday, but I don't know exactly when he'll throw in a game. Both Cashner and 3rd round pick Aaron Shafer (Wichita State) should be ready for AZL game action pretty soon, though, and then they'll go up to Boise once they get an AZL game or two under their belts, as has happened already with Chris Carpenter (2nd round pick out of Kent State) and Justin Bristow (5th round pick out of East Carolina).

Also, RHP Tarlandus Mitchell (22nd round pick out of Alto HS - Alto, TX) aggravated his sprained ankle throwing a pitch with two outs in the top of the 9th yesterday and had to be helped off the field, so he'll probably be out a while. It didn't look too good. He throws VERY hard.

"T" was an all-state QB and CB on his two-time state champion HS football team and he's probably used to playing with a few dings, and so he tried to talk Manager Franklin Font and Athletic Trainer Steve Melendez into letting him finish the game, but no dice. Pitching with a bum ankle is a good way to hurt your arm, son.  

And Ryan Acosta (who left a game last weekend with an injury) is apparently out indefinitely, although I don't know what's wrong with him.

Also, Larry Suarez threw in an AZL game this week. I had thought in April that he had Tommy John surgery at that time (because somebody told me that), but apparently he had his TJS after last season (around the same time as Oswaldo Martinez and Angel Guzman), and went to see his doctor and got shut-down for a couple of months in April not to have TJS, but rather because he had developed a sore arm while rehabbing (as also happened with Rafael Dolis). But Suarez started throwing again last month and so his rehab is back in full swing. Only Dolis remains shut-down from among the 2007 TJS guys, and his problem is a sore shoulder.

BTW, an ESPN film crew followed 4th round pick Matt Cerda around yesterday. They are apparently doing a story on him, I guess because he played in the Little League World Series a few years ago and now he's playing pro ball. So look for that when ESPN covers the LLWS in August.

Cerda got hits his first three times up in the AZL Cubs 20-8 victory over the AZL Padres at Fitch Park yesterday (two opposite field line drive singles to left and a line drive single to right), so apparently he wasn't spooked by the camera crew following his every move. Cerda is well beyond his actual age in baseball years. 

And Jericho Jones (20th round pick out of Louisiana Tech) hit an opposite-field grand slam in the AZL Cubs 10-run 4th inning yesterday, and then he hit a three-run bomb versus the AZL Angels at Tempe Diablo Park today. Jones is now hitting 444/500/759 (leads AZL in BA and OPS, and is 3rd in SLG and OBP). What more does he have to do to get a promotion to Boise? Blow a trumpet? Jeesh!

Another AZL Cub due for a promotion to Boise is 3B-1B John Contreras, who went 5-5 today with two HR and four RBI. Contreras now is hitting 395/435/816, and leads the AZL with seven HR. He also leads the league in SLG and is 2nd in the league in OPS to Jericho Jones and is 2nd in the league in RBI to teammate Nelson Perez. (Three of the top four OPS leaders are AZL Cubs, with Nelson Perez at #4, and Contreras-N. Perez-J. Jones are 1-2-3 in the AZL in SLG).

Contreras was born in New Jersey but grew up in the Dominican Republic, and he was the MVP of the DSL Cubs in 2007. He has a heavy lower body and popeye forearms (a little bit along the lines of Ron Cey), and can hit the ball a mile. His only negative is that he's 22, so the Cubs really need to move him on up ASAP.  

Slip C-DH Matt Cerda and his 349 BA and 442 OBP into the #2 hole, and you've got Cerda-Jones-Contreras-Perez hitting 2-3-4-5, making the AZL Cubs quite the offensive juggernaut! Props to AZL Cubs Hitting Coach Ricardo Medina for putting in long hours of work with these kids. (He's a really good guy, BTW). 

I thought that Rich Hill might have pitched at Fitch Park yesterday, but the Cubs pulled a fast one and moved him up to Daytona on Tuesday, apparently because that's where Cubs Minor League Pitching Coordinator Mark Riggins is this week. Hill was supposed to pitch for the D-Cubs last night, but his start got rained out. So now he's scheduled to pitch tonight instead. (He probably should have just stayed in Arizona).

This Day in Cubs Misery
July 18, 1993

The Cubs complete a four-game sweep of the expansion Rockies at Wrigley with a 12-2 win. The game was called in the bottom of the eighth due to rain. Sandberg goes 4-4, including two hits in the eight-run first inning. Kevin Roberson hit a three-run homer.

Thank you, AZ Phil. The Suarez information was great, I was wondering why he was pitching for Mesa on Wednesday! By the way, Rich Hill has gone 3 innings thus far for Daytona: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Sounds good. He was squeezed a bit on the walk.

Submitted by Raisin101 on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 6:02pm.

Thank you, AZ Phil. The Suarez information was great, I was wondering why he was pitching for Mesa on Wednesday!

By the way, Rich Hill has gone 3 innings thus far for Daytona: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Sounds good. He was squeezed a bit on the walk.

=========================

RAISIN: Sounds like Rich Hill is continuing with his reformation all the way to Daytona. I hope he can finish strong tonight, throw strikes, get his pitch count up to around 80 or 85, and maybe get up to Iowa next week.

BTW, converted OF (now LHP) Luke Sommer got promoted to Boise, and I believe LHP Michael Bunton (2007 26th round pick out of College of Charleston) might have been released, but I'm not positive on that. I do know LHP Arik Hempy (2007 17th round pick out of South Carolina) got released, though. He was never able to get his arm in shape.

And Kyler Burke REALLY needs to think seriously about becoming a pitcher.

AZ Phil, according to the local Boise rag, Bunton was indeed released to make room for Sommer. Hopefully Luke has the same success as fellow converts Parker and Muyco (and from a while back, Marmol and Wells).

Hill's great night went to waste in the 5th (the announcers made it sound like he was tiring) and the reliever who followed him - Mike Phelps - was horrid and let all of Hill's inherited runners score. Despite the 5th inning, I think it was a solid outing, now he needs to build on it.

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