TCR: Over-analyzing the Cubs since July, 2001.


Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by Rob G. on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 5:33pm.

Game Chat | Press Pass | BR Preview

SP *Ted Lilly
 SP
Brian Moehler
9-6, 4.68, 108 K, 41 BB, 115.1 IP
5-4, 4.28, 44 K, 24 BB, 75.2 IP
SS Ryan Theriot
 2B #Kaz Matsui
RF *Kosuke Fukudome CF *Darin Erstad
1B
 Derrek Lee 1B
#Lance Berkman
3B
 Aramis Ramirez LF
 Carlos Lee
C
 Geovany Soto
 SS Miguel Tejada
CF *Jim Edmonds 3B Hunter Pence
LF Mark DeRosa RF Ty Wigginton
2B
 *Mike Fontenot
 C J.R. Towles
P
 *Ted Lilly P Brian Moehler

 

The second half is upon us and the Cubs trot out Ted Lilly to start it...for some reason. I assume it was to give Z and Dempster an extra day after their All-Star appearances and to limit Rich Harden as much as possible before he goes on a 27 inning scoreless streak in the playoffs. Nonetheless, Lilly's homer-happy ways will be on display tonight with the ever-present Crawford boxes looming in short left field. If he can manage a win, he'll join Dempster and Zambrano in the 10-win club.

Before the game, the Cubs put Jon Lieber on the disabled list with a right foot strain (same foot that cost him most of last year) and recalled Micah Hoffpauir. 

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#1 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by The E-Man on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 5:53pm.

On the DL? C'mon! He has sat on a bench for most of the first 100 games! He has been in 25, and only thrown 44 innings. He certainly got "plenty of rest". This cannot be a "legitimate" injury. Can it?

__________________________

Disappointed by "Cubbery" since 1966

#2 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by Rich on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 7:20pm.

What is going on with Fukudome? The guy seems to have lost quite a bit of plate discipline lately.

#3 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by Jeff_Pico on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 7:43pm.

The league has more than figured Fukudome out at this point. In fact you can get him to take strikes and swing at balls :(...ugly ugly.

#4 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 8:37pm.

wow...that sucked.

#5 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by WISCGRAD on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 9:13pm.

And Rich Hill sucked too. He started out well (as someone in the previous thread noted) but Len and Bob reported he ended up giving up 6 runs and had 4 walks in I think only 3 innings of work.

#6 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by crunch on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 11:42pm.

wuertz, AAA

1ip 1h 0bb 1k (16 pitches, 11 strikes, 0 runs)

#14 Re: Rich Hill

Submitted by Eric S on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 11:14am.

Didn't help that all 3 inherited runners scored after Hill was pulled from the game too. On the positive, at least no HRs surrendered.

#7 Minus Soriano Cubs are 15-15

Submitted by navigator on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 11:50pm.

Central Division Leaders on June 11

Cubs 42-24 +101 RS-RA
St.L 40-27 +44
Milw 34-31 -5

Since June 11

Milw 18-12 +26 RS-RA
Cubs 15-15 +4
St.L 15-16 -16

St. Louis remains an enigma. TL is a magician.

Milwaukee's big boost has been thanks in large part (some might say entirely) to CC Sabathia's 3-0 record, 2 complete games(that makes 5 on the year now), and 24 innings pitched in 3 starts.

That said, if the Brewers continue to play .600 baseball they project out to a 92-70 season. The Cubs need to finish 36-30 to beat 'em.

#8 Re: Minus Soriano Cubs are 15-15

Submitted by 10man on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 12:21am.

You mean the Cubs still went .500 during a stretch where one by one they lost their best starting pitcher, their best reliever and 2 of their best hitters? Lou must be a wizard.

__________________________

That's Manila with an "L"

#17 Re: Lou must be a wizard.

Submitted by navigator on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 1:14pm.

What's magical about playing .500 ball when you outscore your opponents?

#18 Re: Lou must be a wizard.

Submitted by crunch on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 1:29pm.

you play 1.000 ball when you outscore your opponents.

aggregates mean nothing out of context.

cubs played PIT like 12+ times or something crazy early on...amongst other things.

what does matter is that not many think this team can't be a playoff caliber team. they're good if not spectacular is almost all aspects of team construction (from starters to bench) all over. the best? probably not. one of the best? yeah.

#23 Re: aggregates mean nothing out of context.

Submitted by navigator on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 2:36pm.

But the context is obvious. MLB won-loss records roughly obey this formula:

Winning Percentage = RS ²/(RS ² + RA ²)

When RA = RS, Winning Percentage = .500
When RA > RS, Winning Percentage > .500

#24 Re: aggregates mean nothing out of context.

Submitted by crunch on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 2:56pm.

the context is not obvious. i can come up with a dozen contexts to put it in...ones that include past games, ones that look at individual games, ones that look at strength of schedule.

the "roughly" part should tell you things are not so obvious.

also RA > RS = WP > .500?

its not true for the opposite, either, more just just occasionally...toronto, dodgers, arizona and atlanta right now don't follow it...

#32 Re: aggregates mean nothing out of context.

Submitted by 10man on Sun, 07/20/2008 - 6:23am.

Apparently MY context wasn't that obvious to navigator so i'll spell it out:

When you don't have 4 of your best players, it's a whole heck of a lot harder to win games.

__________________________

That's Manila with an "L"

#9 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by John Beasley on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 7:48am.

Best news of the road trip: Gonna miss both Webb and Haren in AZ.

__________________________

The Todd Zeile of Internet handles.

#10 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by rokfish on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 9:33am.

have we seen the last of jon lieber till september
i hear his injury could linger for about 6 weeks.

__________________________

rokfish in rockford

#11 Re: have we seen the last of jon lieber till september

Submitted by navigator on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 10:10am.

does it matter?

I'm much more worried about "July" Kosuke (.152 .204 .239 .443) and "Road" Kosuke (.207 .310 .290 .600 ) right now. What's plan B if he doesn't figure it out??

#12 Re: have we seen the last of jon lieber till september

Submitted by nohit on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 10:24am.

srumpbuster !!!

/i keed

__________________________

Equal Opportunity Offender

#16 Re: have we seen the last of jon lieber till september

Submitted by crunch on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 1:00pm.

there's only 1 plan-B for RF unless lou loses his mind again and thinks D.Ward is a RF'r...derosa.

i know he likes hoffPOWER, but i dont think anyone is crazy enough to put him in RF.

not a bad plan-B...not very exciting from a defensive point of view, though not an awful option in RF...leaves 2nd to be covered by fontegod.

mmm depth. yum. good stuff.

#19 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by Andy on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 1:39pm.

At least we don't have this joker patrolling our outfield:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2008_...

click on the WRAP tab and the "Izturis gets a triple..." video clip.

#13 Soriano back Thursday

Submitted by Rob G. on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 10:41am.

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=222083

going to AZ Phil land on Monday and then Iowa for 2 games. Eyre should be back Monday.

Kerry probably not available until tomorrow's game.

#15 Re: Soriano back Thursday

Submitted by navigator on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 1:00pm.

Earth to Gordon Wittenmeyer: If that comes to pass then let the record show that he was out MORE than 6 weeks and lay to rest this apocryphal crap that he's a superfast healer.

So far as a Cub, Soriano is more of an injury looking for a way to happen.

#20 Re: Soriano back Thursday

Submitted by The Joe on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 2:02pm.

You articulate good.

__________________________

† The Joe - 2007 TCR Keeper Champion; 2008 Runner-Up

#33 Re: Soriano back Thursday

Submitted by 10man on Sun, 07/20/2008 - 6:25am.

Uh yeah. what he said.

__________________________

That's Manila with an "L"

#29 Re: Soriano back Thursday

Submitted by Doug Dascenzo on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 3:41pm.

I had almost the exact same injury as Soriano back in March, and 6 weeks and 3 days later I was back playing softball with almost no noticeable difference. I also started playing a couple weeks before my orthopedist gave me the official go-ahead as well.

His bones might not heal faster than the average human's, but he's not behind at all either. His bones are healing right on schedule with what my doctor told me. I'm pretty sure the whole "fast-healer" thing is just Fonzie being optimistic. It's not like he's some superhero or something.

#21 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by Dmac on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 2:19pm.

So far as a commenter, you are a Troll waiting to happen.

#22 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by crunch on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 2:24pm.

waiting?

on mvn there were plenty of diatribes of personal greatness mixed with actual useful info without his commentary and demands mixed in.

its really great when he calls people idiots, morons, stupid, or etc.

you get that once a week at least yet he keeps preferring the company of idiots, morAns, and the stupid.

fire up your browser and check out some classics by him off mvn.com TCR site...

he's done this on other msg boards, too.

at least its consistent...i guess.

while you're at it check out some old 'silent towel' posts and remind yourself it could be worse. at least nav. brings some good info occasionally.

#25 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by champsummers on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 3:01pm.

Oh c'mon now!

what about the "bubble gum cards", the "used infield rake" and my personal favorite, the "1/2 can of Simoniz" ???

That was gold, Crunch, gold!

(wink)

#27 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by crunch on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 3:09pm.

end o subject

#26 murton

Submitted by crunch on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 3:08pm.

murton got his first oakland double today...2 for 4, 1k 0bb...

#28 Re: murton

Submitted by Brick on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 3:13pm.

I remember my first "oakland double." I was limping for a week.

#30 Re: murton

Submitted by Charlie on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 4:04pm.

Score one for Brick.

#31 Re: Game 96 Thread / Cubs @ Astros (1 of 3)

Submitted by Green Lantern on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 4:07pm.

thanks NL west teams for handing games to the brewers and cards....been watching both, this is really gross. wow.
still time for the cards and brew to blow it, of course.