Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Blasphemy!!!!

I'm not really advocating this strategy, but hear me out. The current NL standings after the jump. 

Team  GB  WP%   Run Differential
 East          
 Phillies 64  56   -  .533  +71
 Mets 64  56   -  .533  +48
 Marlins 63 58 1.5   .521  -21
Central           
Cubs  73  47   .608  +155
Brewers  70  51  3.5  .579  +50
Cardinals 67 56  7.5  .545  +38
West           
Dodgers  61  59  - .508   +30
Diamondbacks  61  59   - .508  +19

 and the Wild Card standings

Team   L GB   WP% Run Differntial 
Brewers  70  51   - .579 +50
Cardinals  67  56   4 .545 +38 
Mets  64  56  5.5 .533 +48
Phillies  64  56  5.5  .533 +71 
Marlins 63  58  .521  -21 
Diamondbacks 61  59  8.5  .508   +19
Dodgers  61  59  8.5  .508  +30 
Astros   61  59  8.5  .508   -24

So the Cubs have a seven and a half game lead on a playoff spot and ESPN has them at 97.4% chance of making the playoffs and 81% at winning the division. BP goes with 98.04% to make the playoffs and 79.41% to win the division. Plus they lead the league by a healthy margin in runs scored (57 over the Phillies) and are second in runs allowed with 490;  just 11 behind the Dodgers. That is a good baseball team that - sans any black cats crossing their paths - is headed to the playoffs.

But here's the rather small dilemma for the Cubs. If they win the division and finish with the best record in the league, there's a real good chance they'll have to face the division winner with the worst record. That's because they can't play the wild card if it's from the same division and with the Brewers at around 86% to make the playoffs with the Cardinals on their heels, that seems pretty likely. Right now, the Cubs opponent looks like the  winner of the NL West between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in a five game set. That means either facing the trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson or the slightly less intimidating Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Clayton Kershaw troika of the Dodgers. The Dodgers could also throw a healthy Brad Penny at us  or Hiroki Kuroda, whom we should not forget dominated the Cubs' asses at a level not seen since the last soft-tossing lefty or rookie made his major league debut against them. Furthermore, both West teams added a huge bat recently to their lineups. The D'Backs with Cub-killer Adam Dunn, and the Dodgers with Manny Ramirez. And the Dodgers should be adding Rafael Furcal before it's all said and done as well. So I don't think their current records or the records they end up with are truly reflective of what will be on display during the playoffs.

Counter that with the NL East, where the Mets and Phillies are tied and the Marlins are lurking. The top two teams go only one deep with studs in their rotations (Johann and Hamels) and then a cavalry of question marks. The Mets go with Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and John Maine; all of whom are capable of real good starts, but kind of in the way that Ted Lilly is capable of one. They're not striking fear into the hearts of batters. The Phillies go with Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and either Kyle Kendrick or Brett Myers. 

I think the Cubs will have the upper hand in any pitching matchups with Zambrano, Harden and Dempster with Lilly lurking, although the Brewers and D'Backs sure could give the Cubs a run for their money in that department. And as the saying goes, you have to beat the best to be the best. Plus a trip to the West Coast means I most likely get to catch a game or two in person. But if they do lose out on the division, but still win the wild card and have to face the NL East winner, I hardly think all will be lost.

That is other than their pride.

 

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Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

In the WTF category:
Peavy in trouble with 2 on, 1 out, and 3-0 count to Mike Cameron. Peavy having all sorts of trouble finding the plate, about to walk the bases loaded. Cameron swings 3-0 and pops out to the catcher. Peavy gets out of it.

OK, back to the thread topic. Basically, I feel we match up best with teams that have a better offense then pitching staff (Phils). But I still think there is something to be said for having the first 2 games at home in a 5 game series, and going into the playoffs with the best record in the league. The Dbacks and especially Brewers scare me because of their starting pitching, but I'd be happier taking my chances against them with homefield than going on the road.

Anyway, this gives me another opportunity to reflect on how much I HATE the best-of-5 format for the first round. It really does almost become a coin flip as you are in deep do-do if you loose game 1.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Where did you get this idea from?

:-)

If the Brad Penny from last night pitches they aren't going to far.

Chad believes Dodgers, I say Dbags.

And I dont want to face Webb, Haren, and Unbeatable Randy Johnson in 5 game set.

Bring on Jaimie Moyer!!!

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

believe it or not if you wish, but I had an idea for something like this over the last day or two. Nonetheless, knowing that you, jacos, were thinking along the same lines made me realize the idea was genius. 

 

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

GENIUS!!!
THAAAAANK YOOOUUUUU!!!!!!!

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

We swept the Snakes at home, mind you and we will have home field advantage where the Cubs are the best in baseball.

Rather play Snakes at home than Philly on the road.

Because if Milwaukee loses to the snakes we have to play them in AZ.

No thank you.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Optimal would definitely be to face the NL East team and then the Brewers, but it might not be so bad to face NL West, particularly if it is the Dodgers. If it's Arizona, need to beat them at Wrigley, because playing in the state of Arizona after March has been almost as bad as playing in Florida....

Meanwhile, check out this beautiful quote from Stark about Dusty - sound familiar?

"Scouts who have followed the Reds continually talk about their messy execution, their mediocre defense and their distinct lack of energy. There also has been plenty of second-guessing of Baker's lineup choices (particularly those 242 at-bats Corey Patterson has gotten).

And there is no shortage of people wondering whether Aaron Harang's forearm injury -- along with his 1-6, 8.49 slide in the past 2½ months -- might be a direct result of Baker's decision to allow him to throw 63 pitches in relief on two days' rest in a May 25 18-inning game, then start him on three days' rest immediately afterward.

Dusty Baker has many admirable traits. And this is not an attempt to heap all the blame on him. We're just saying that when teams like this fall apart, it's everybody's fault -- including the manager's."

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

it was Harang's throw day...not sure how many a pitcher normally throws or if it's done at game speed, but certainly not one of Dusty's worst moves.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

injuries through the season and a lack of replacement player after the griffey trade has given patterson a chunk of ABs.

he's pretty much been in "the doghouse" since late may/early june.

as far as batting him leadoff...yeeesh...but the GM (and to a lesser extent bad luck injuries to the OF, esp. CF types) gave patterson a chunk of those ABs.

the harang thing is kinda f'n hack.

if stark wants to do an article about how dusty needs to air out more responsibility and pour his heart out to the media, do it...

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

The context of the article was a response to Baker's absurdly ridiculous comments that this wasn't his team. That's just not something a manager says, and I think it fits with Baker's profound hubris and arrogance that I do think has adversly effected his managing in SF, Chicago and Cincy.

That's just not something a manager says, basically insulting the remaining players on his team just to absolve responsibility fror any of the poor play.

Anyway, I agree with both you and Rob that pitching Harang in that game was not his worst offense. It was an 18 inning game, and he had already used 8 pitchers...didn't have many options. But pitching 4 innings and 63 pitches (+32 warm up tosses, plus bullpen work) is a LOT of work on your throwing day, and it is reasonable to think they may have lead to a dead arm.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

yeah, he said something stupid and clumbsy...what's new for him? hehe...

it deserves a commentary back.

i got the feeling about what kind of article stark wanted to write, but i feel like he got caught up in weaker sub-plots along the way.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

It was in "Rumblings and grumblings" which is typically about gossip from baseball insiders (scouts, gm's, etc.), so I'm guessing he wrote it because several iniders were talking about those things, including Harang's pitching outing.

Here is the full link. The Baker comments were buried pretty far down the article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?column...

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

I believe Wes, who use to pitch in pros, said that pitchers air it out pretty good on throw days, but I don't know how much and how many pitches.

Wes?

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Hey Rob, what's with all the snarky TL comments these days? Consider yourself in the penalty box.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

you know I love ol' Theodore Roosevelt, I'd love him a bit more if he would stop giving up home runs though.

 

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

I was pointing more to the lack of execution/defense part of the quote - I had more problems with Dusty in those areas than I did with his use of pitchers.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

What about the complete lack of accountability he shows? That always really irked me personally. Try absolving yourself from any and all poor performance next time you deal with your boss. See how that goes over.

fwiw

j.kendall fulfilled his option clause for the 09 season (team, guaranteed) via starts @C.

4.25-4.60m depending on how many more he can catch this year.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Astros about to go 21-9 in their last 30.
What is it about that team that seems to turn it on at the flip of a switch after the all-star break?

aside from that 3-17 stretch in June, Astros have played pretty good ball for a complete after thought.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Sheets and Peavy got a good one going.

6 innings 3 hit combined.

0-0

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

If the D-Backs and Dodgers respective rotations are so great and they're so dangerous with Manny and Dunn... they should be able to catch up to and pass the NL East leaders over the next seven weeks, making the point of the article moot.

But in reality, if you're really afraid of those teams, maybe it's better to face them in a 5 game set than a 7 game set.

Haren is overated and none of the Dodger's pitchers scare me. Johnson has been pitching better, but this isn't 2001, he gets take deep a lot.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

How is Haren overrated? He had a 3.07 ERA in the AL last year, and a 2.93 ERA this year. Sure seems to me like he is the real deal. He isn't Webb or CC, but he's a pretty damn good #2.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Haren is overated

hmm, similar to your Haren isn't top-notch talent comment from the spring.

ERA+ the last 3 years starting with 2006: 108. 117, 151

K/9: 7.10, 7.66, 8.32

K:BB:  3.91, 3.49, 5.44

HR/9: 1.25, .97 .74 

I'm thinking he's underrated.

 

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

How many prospects did he get traded for?

2nd half ERA, 2007 = 4.15
2nd half ERA, 2008 = 4.05, but that may be a start behind

He's not crap, but it's not like any teams are saying 'Oh, no, we have to face Dan Haren'

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

FWIW... an ERA+ of 108 is nowhere close to great, and a 117 is good but not great.

But he has been very good this year.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Marquis has put up ERA+ of 128 and 115 for reference.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

wow, thanks guys, I had no idea

it was typo, should be: 108, 137, 151 and if we go 4 years back it was 117, 108, 137, 151. He was 28 and clearly improving  which was my actual point...besides that he's been real damn good now for awhile and getting better.

There's been 20 players since 2000 with at least 7 K/9 rate and a ratio above 5 of K:BB

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Gw6C

Here are the names in that top 20

Schilling, Sabathia, Johann, Sheets, Pedro, Randy Johnson, Shields, Mussina.

There's also Cliff Lee, Halladay and Haren from this season. I'm not going to pretend to try and explain Cliff Lee's season, but everyone on that top 20  list is or was considered ace material. I think Haren is well on his way, if not already there.

 

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

So if David Bush is on that list, that makes him an ace or a #2 guy?

Let's see how Haren finishes up the season.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

Don't get me wrong, Rob. I like Haren. And I don't think he is overrated.

I was jut pointing out that a 108 and a 117 ERA+ wasn't that good... but being that one of those was a typo makes my comment pretty irrelevant. :)

And this is really random, but Brad Ziegler's ERA+ of 1763 is decent.

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

f'n Brewers.
Walk, Peavy error on pickoff, single
1-0 Brew

Re: Should the Cubs Tank the Division?

go Padres, they go up 2-1.

--edit--

phitting for Peavy though...go bullpen. 

--edit--

JO-DEE, JO-DEE GERUT!!!!

3-1 Padres, Sheets out 

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