Should the Cubs Tank the Division?
I'm not really advocating this strategy, but hear me out. The current NL standings after the jump.
and the Wild Card standings
So the Cubs have a seven and a half game lead on a playoff spot and ESPN has them at 97.4% chance of making the playoffs and 81% at winning the division. BP goes with 98.04% to make the playoffs and 79.41% to win the division. Plus they lead the league by a healthy margin in runs scored (57 over the Phillies) and are second in runs allowed with 490; just 11 behind the Dodgers. That is a good baseball team that - sans any black cats crossing their paths - is headed to the playoffs.
But here's the rather small dilemma for the Cubs. If they win the division and finish with the best record in the league, there's a real good chance they'll have to face the division winner with the worst record. That's because they can't play the wild card if it's from the same division and with the Brewers at around 86% to make the playoffs with the Cardinals on their heels, that seems pretty likely. Right now, the Cubs opponent looks like the winner of the NL West between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in a five game set. That means either facing the trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson or the slightly less intimidating Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Clayton Kershaw troika of the Dodgers. The Dodgers could also throw a healthy Brad Penny at us or Hiroki Kuroda, whom we should not forget dominated the Cubs' asses at a level not seen since the last soft-tossing lefty or rookie made his major league debut against them. Furthermore, both West teams added a huge bat recently to their lineups. The D'Backs with Cub-killer Adam Dunn, and the Dodgers with Manny Ramirez. And the Dodgers should be adding Rafael Furcal before it's all said and done as well. So I don't think their current records or the records they end up with are truly reflective of what will be on display during the playoffs.
Counter that with the NL East, where the Mets and Phillies are tied and the Marlins are lurking. The top two teams go only one deep with studs in their rotations (Johann and Hamels) and then a cavalry of question marks. The Mets go with Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and John Maine; all of whom are capable of real good starts, but kind of in the way that Ted Lilly is capable of one. They're not striking fear into the hearts of batters. The Phillies go with Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and either Kyle Kendrick or Brett Myers.
I think the Cubs will have the upper hand in any pitching matchups with Zambrano, Harden and Dempster with Lilly lurking, although the Brewers and D'Backs sure could give the Cubs a run for their money in that department. And as the saying goes, you have to beat the best to be the best. Plus a trip to the West Coast means I most likely get to catch a game or two in person. But if they do lose out on the division, but still win the wild card and have to face the NL East winner, I hardly think all will be lost.
That is other than their pride.
Not certain why the site has been slowed. Worked much of Wednesday on it and will continue today. Sorry for the inconvenience. I will probably take it offline for a while, but it will be up before the game against the Mets.
Mine has been really slow to load -- on different computers from different locations.
Anybody else have issues accessing the site this afternoon/evening?
Boras is 63, maybe he'll be retired or dead by the time Bryant, Russell, Almora, Albertos all hit free agency. Doubt he will be before Jake hits there though.
Interesting choices when guys get healthy.
LaStella, Fowler & Soler replace Coghlan, Almora and Sczcur? I assume they don't want Almora to sit.
Despite MIggy's demise, I assume they keep him around to mentor Contreras?
I believe Willson now has more CS than MIggy. The kid has an arm. Also, Russell is amazingly good on those plays at 2nd.
oh yeah...thanks joe/billy.
poor outing, still got the win, go cubs.
Although it felt like it, Jake didn't lose to them -- he got the W. (Assuming you are referring to Monday's game)
Arrieta didn't lose to the Reds. He got the win -- he just didn't pitch like we expect him to.
almora's 1st HR!
it's not like this CIN team is lost-cause horrible, but aside from defense and power this is a truly horrible team.
kinda crazy arrieta lost to them and yesterday's game had to go 15 innings for the cubs win.
It looked like Hamilton got screened by Duvall and that Duvall just barely deflected the ball off of his glove--redirecting it slightly without taking away much of its momentum.
At least it didn't turn into a Schwarber/Fowler situation. Hamilton and Duvall are both pretty important youngish players for the Reds.
he walked off the field on his own. aside from a concussion watch and some attention to his leg/knee that buckled a bit under him, the biggest thing hurt was probably his pride after the ball knocked off his skull.
After last night, an inside-the-park HR seems kind of run-of-the-mill somehow.
Sounds bad for Hamilton. Hope he's okay--listening on the radio.
SHOW ME THE MONEY: Jose Albertos has signed with Mega-Agent Scott Boras.
Albertos has already received his signing bonus and won't see any additional significant money until he reaches the big leagues, so this is a long-term investment for the Boras Corporation.
Other Cubs represented by Boras include Jake Arrieta, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Albert Almora Jr.
I am glad Joe is managing this team and not Old and Blue!