Harden, C.C., and Sut
Rich Harden's brilliant effort Tuesday night followed yet another complete-game win for the second-place Brewers' C.C. Sabathia the evening before.
Through last night's play, here is what Harden and Sabathia have done for their NL Central teams, alongside the contribution of another mid-season acquisition, who, once upon a time, made a huge impact when he joined the Cubs from the American League:
| GS | CG | IP |
H |
K |
BB | ERA |
W | L | |
| C.C. Sabathia | 9 | 5 | 73 | 60 | 69 | 15 | 1.60 | 8 | 0 |
| Rich Harden | 7 | 0 | 42 | 26 | 59 | 14 | 1.50 | 3 | 1 |
| Rick Sutcliffe (thru 8/19/84) | 13 | 1 | 94 | 87 | 93 | 32 | 3.26 | 11 | 1 |
(Note: Sabathia's first start for the Brewers was on July 8, Harden's Cub debut was on July 12, and Sutcliffe's first game for the Cubs was on June 19, 1984.
Thoughts after the jump...
Sabathia has been brilliant for the Brewers, with only one rocky start in the mix, a 124-pitch, 6IP+ game against the Cubs. The question that has arisen around the former Indian is whether Ned Yost is going to pitch him to death in the course of chasing a post-season berth and getting all he can out of the team's prize pick-up in what is likely to be his only season pitching for the Brewers. In fact, Yost had to explain himself after he allowed Sabathia to throw a career-high 130 pitches in Monday night's 9-3 win against the Astros. (Sabathia's 5 complete games as a Milwaukeean are more than every other National League team has thrown so far this year.)
Piniella is aware at all times of Harden's fragility and is managing him accordingly. We know he is aware of this at all times, because he mentions it constantly. As the skipper said after Tuesday night's game, "We've just got to watch him, keep him fresh, keep him strong."
Lastly about Sutcliffe, the big righty finished 16-1, 2.69, and was integral to the Cubs' '84 NL East title. His coronation as NL Cy Young Award winner, however, was arugably a mistake by the Baseball Writers. Dwight Gooden, who went 17-9 in what was his rookie year, fanned 276 men (against 73 walks) in just 218 IP. Gooden's Mets finished 90-72, 6.5 games behind the division-winning Cubs.
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#1 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
I think both managers are handling their new pitchers fine for what their team needs of them. MIL is in a battle for a playoff spot, while the Cubs can be in cruise control until October. MIL needs every inning out of CC, and won't have him next year, and the Cubs can take the 6 IP average from Harden to protect him for the playoffs.
#2 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Manny sighting!
Not a surprise that Harden has nearly as many BB's and K's in a little more than half of Sabathia's IP. Of course, as Rob mentioned, Lou's being far more careful with Harden than Yost is being with CC. Despite Harden's paltry 3 wins (what's his run support right now?), there's no arguing both have been as great as advertised.
#4 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
^*Cubnut
But yeah, no doubt so far both teams have gotten what they paid for and more.
#3 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
I can understand why statistics did not transfer when a player switched leagues in the middle of the season back when the American League and National League were separate entities with no interleague play and no common opponents, but the relationship between the A. L. and the N. L. is now more like that of conferences rather than leagues (like the relationship between the NFC & the AFC), so I believe stats should follow a player when he changes "leagues" during the season.
So for anyone who might be interested, here are the combined (full-season) numbers for CC Sabathia, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, and Sean Gallagher:
CC Sabathia: 14-8, 2.99 ERA, 27 G (27 GS), 8 CG, 195.1 IP, 177 H, .242 OBA, 1.16 WHIP, 17 HR, 49/192 BB/K.
Rich Harden: 8-2, 2.04 ERA, 20 G (20 GS), 0 CG, 119.0 IP, 83 H, .192 OBA, 1.08 WHIP, 10 HR, 45/151 BB/K.
Chad Gaudin: 9-4, 3.39 ERA, 42 G (6 GS), 82.1 IP, 77 H, .248 OBA, 1.20 WHIP, 8 HR, 22/65 BB/K.
Sean Gallagher: 4-6, 5.23 ERA, 19 G (17 GS), 93.0 IP, 100 H, .274 OBA, 1.59 WHIP, 10 HR, 48/82 BB/K,
#8 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
except the AL still has a DH...
#13 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
But the NL has Carlos Zambrano.
#5 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Though Sabathia is clearly better than Harden, it could be each is handled differently not just because of injury history, but because of the investment.
Sabathia is clearly a rental; they HAVE to squeeze what they can for him, and the Brewers don't care what he has left for next year. CC goes along with it, because he is making himself millions more with each CG.
The Cubs hold a $7.5 mil option on Harden, which will be picked up unless his arm falls off.
Gaudin is the key that made that a brilliant Hendry trade.
#7 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
It's ben pointed out that Harden has some kind of option to demand a trade, in which he may not be on the team next year without a new contract. Reagrdless, what you said is correct about Gaudin. Assuming Harden remains a Cub, next year's rotation looks solid with Gaudin as a possibility:
Z
Harden
Lilly
Gaudin/Marshall/Samardzija/Hill
Marquis
Naturally, everyone would love to trade Marquis and keep Dempster around. Replacing Marquis in the above with Dempster would be phenomenal.
#10 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
I have never heard of Harden having that option. I looked it up in Cot's, which is a pretty good resource for such things, and it doesn't mention any special priviledges. But maybe that's wrong, anyone know for sure?
I also suppose ANY player can demand a trade regardless of what the contract says. Manny did.
But everything I have read is that the Cubs have every right to pick-up that $7 mil option, and there is no buyout, and nothing Harden can do about it.
#14 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
http://thecubreporter.com/2008/07/09/easy-be-harden
Because Harden signed his current contract in April 2005 under the old CBA, he retains the arcane right to demand a trade after this season. That's because under the rules of the previous CBA, if a player is signed to a multi-year contract and has accrued at least five years of MLB service time when he is traded to another club, the player has the right to demand a trade during the post-World Series Free-Agency Filing Period that follows the season during which he is traded.
If Harden does choose to exercise his option to demand a trade after the 2008 season, and the Cubs don't trade him by March 15, 2009, he can become a totally unrestricted FA at that time (player option), although by exercising the option to be a FA under the aforementioned circumstances, Harden would be giving up his $7M salary for 2009 and the Cubs wouldn't owe him anything past this season.
#32 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Good find. So, what are the odds this happens though?
If Harden forces a trade, the new team still has him for a year at $7mil. So he has no financial incentive to force that trade. In fact, he likely has a financial DIS-incentive, because being Manny-esque can hurt your value. He only becomes a free-agent if the Cubs didn't accomodate that request, which they would have no trouble doing.
I am assuming he like the Cubbies enough to not ask for that, the Cubs pick up his '09 option, and he hits Free-Agency after that.
#39 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
somewhere between slim and none...
I believe the Cubs can just decline his '09 option (it's a team option) and still retain his rights as he's not set to be a free agent until after '09. They'd probably have to pay him a bit more than the $7MM he's owed, but the risk of actually losing him next year is pretty low.
#11 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
If Marquis is still around next year and the Cubs don't re-sign Dempster, I'll jump off a cliff.
#12 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Also, not to get ahead of ourselves, but the toughest decision facing Hendry in the offseason will be Dempster. Great year, great guy, will attract alot of interest, but the fact this is a career year and he will be 32 should give you pause before a long-term contract. If Carlos Silva got $48mil/4, what is Demp worth? How many years would you go on him?
We also have in-house options. Samardzija, Marmol (yes, we should consider Carlos in the rotation).
#15 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
toughest decision for Hendry will be figuring out who is paying the bills? Cubs have over $100 MM committed to 9 players next year and a lot of guys eligible for free agency.
#46 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Is Kerry's Kontract up as well?
If K and Demp both leave, the famous "team chemistry" would definitely be impacted.
Tough call on how long to offer both of 'em.
#49 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
both are eligible to be free agents after the season, along with Howry, Edmonds, Ward and Lieber. Blanco has a team option. Everyone else is under team control or signed. Some guys could of course leave if they're not offered arbitration or what-not, but those are the main ones to "worry" about it.
#31 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Funny you mention it, here's Ken Rosenthal from this morning:
Cubs right-hander Ryan Dempster is putting together a monster season heading into free agency, but the chances of him leaving Chicago are minimal, even with the Cubs in the process of being sold.
Dempster, much like Cubs closer Kerry Wood, enjoys a close relationship with general manager Jim Hendry. At some point, Hendry will be asked to detail his offseason plans for the competing ownership groups. Re-signing Dempster almost certainly will be his No. 1 priority.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8468230/Brewers...
#37 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
dumpster's become the team's glue...even when he was a closer.
good natured ADD-style clubhouse/dugout ramblings from a hopeless optimist goes a long way. it worked for matt stairs.
#53 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Maybe he could get 3/44 ?
/somebody had to say it
#55 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
probably not too far off...
I would guess with his age, injury history and questions if it was a fluke year, he's in line for 3/39 with some sort of 4th and possibly 5th year team or vesting options.
He'll certainly get tons of interest for any team that doesn't want to pay CC or Sheets rates.
List of 2009 SP Free agents according to Cot's (I bolded the more interesting names):
Starting Pitchers
Kris Benson PHI
A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Paul Byrd CLE
Ryan Dempster CHC
Jon Garland LAA
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton * ATL
Rich Harden * CHC
Orlando Hernandez NYM
Jason Jennings TEX
Randy Johnson ARZ
John Lackey * LAA
Esteban Loaiza CHW
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Mike Mussina NYY
Jamie Moyer PHI
Mark Mulder * STL
Carl Pavano NYY
Brad Penny * LAD
Odalis Perez WAS
Oliver Perez NYM
Andy Pettitte NYY
Mark Prior SD
Horatio Ramirez KC
C.C. Sabathia MIL
Ben Sheets MIL
John Smoltz * ATL
Julian Tavarez ATL
Steve Trachsel BAL
Brett Tomko SD
Claudio Vargas MIL
Randy Wolf HOU
#57 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
speaking of the off-season, some things to consider:
- Teixeira entering his age 29 season and Derrek Lee will be his going on his age 33 season).
- Rafael Furcal or Orlando Hudson for that lefty, speed/top of the order presence
- K-Rod will be out there
- Assuming (and that's a big assumption) they bring back Kerry, still probably going to need at least one vet bullpen arm to round out the bullpen. Right now Marmol and Gaudin are the only real locks. And Gaudin could be a rotation possibility.
- No real CF options out there on the free agent market
#6 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Could not agree more regarding Gaudin - could wind up playing a major role in the playoffs.
#9 Re: Harden, C.C., and Sut
Regardless of the win-at-all-costs mentality, the Brewers are coming real close to crossing some serious ethical boundaries. If Sabathia ends up signing a huge contract after this season and then blows out his elbow shortly thereafter, Ned Yost is going to have some angry people to answer to.*
In 2003 when the Cubs were in a playoff race, was it right to throw Prior 120+ pitches per game? Absolutely not. The Brewers' playoff race isn't worth potentially destroying a career.
*I'm sure it will be the Yankees, and he can join Carl Pavano on the Eternal DL.
#16 Re: was it right to throw Prior
Prior was only 22. It's a BIG MISTAKE to overuse a 22 year old pitcher. Sabathia is 28. That's a different story entirely. At age 28 Ferguson Jenkins pitched 30 complete games. No problem.
#17 Re: was it right to throw Prior
Just to be factual, Prior was born September 7, 1980. So that made him 23 years old, not 22, for the starts with the Cubs in the 2003 playoff run and immediate leadup.
#18 Re: Prior was born September 7, 1980
as if that's at all meaningful
#20 Re: was it right to throw Prior
Sabathia's leading the league in BP's Pitcher Abuse Points by a fairly wide margin: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sorta...
Using Ferguson Jenkins as a comparison isn't really appropriate as pitchers these days just aren't treated like pitchers used to be. The fact that Bob Feller threw 371 innings in 1946 has no bearing on anything today because pitchers just aren't conditioned that way anymore.
And do you have any evidence to back up your assertion that abusing older pitchers is worse than abusing younger pitchers? Couldn't you argue that a 23 year old has a better ability to recover than a 28 year old?
Regardless of anything, Sabathia's arm is getting abused more than any other pitcher's in the game this year, and it's mostly because the Brewers could give a shit what happens to him next year or the year after. That's not fair to the player or to the team that ends up signing him to a huge contract.
#22 Re: was it right to throw Prior
There's a lot of evidence supporting the pitcher's 'injury nexus' which I think is from about 19 to 25. Look around at BP and you'll find something.
#29 Re: Abusing Pitchers...
Doug D.:
"And do you have any evidence to back up your assertion that abusing older pitchers is worse than abusing younger pitchers?"
Not really sure there is any evidence that "abusing" pitchers leads to any more injuries. Heck, Fransisco Liriano and Joba Chamberlain were babied to death and bother are/were injured.
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