Game 138 Thread / Astros @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Submitted by Rob G. on Mon, 09/01/2008 - 12:02pm
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| SP | Roy Oswalt | SP | Jason Marquis |
| 12-9, 4.11, 135 K, 41 BB, 160.2 IP | 9-7, 4.52, 74 K, 52 BB, 141.1 IP | ||
| 2B | #Bill Doran | CF | Bob Dernier |
| RF | *Terry Puhl | 2B | Ryne Sandberg |
| 1B | *Denny Walling | LF | Gary Matthews |
| LF | *Jose Cruz | 1B | Leon Durham |
| CF | #Jerry Mumphrey | RF | Keith Moreland |
| 3B | Phil Garner | 3B | Ron Cey |
| C | #Mark Bailey | C | Jody Davis |
| SS | *Craig Reynolds | SS | #Larry Bowa |
| P | Nolan Ryan | P | Dick Ruthven |
Unfortunately I have to take off before the lineups are posted, so Marquis and Oswalt will have to face off against the 1984 lineups.
As for the modern day Cubs, all the warm glowing feelings of a seven game win streak are gone after dropping two straight games and two starting pitchers. Three straight losses looms as well with the red-hot Astros (27-15 since the break) and Oswalt's 2.51 August ERA coming to town.
Go Mets!
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#1 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Name AVG HR RBI SB
1. D Erstad, CF .292 3 26 2
2. T Wigginton, LF .303 21 52 4
3. M Tejada, SS .281 12 55 7
4. L Berkman, 1B .335 27 94 15
5. G Blum, 3B .242 13 44 1
6. H Pence, RF .263 20 69 8
7. J Castillo, 2B .000 0 0 0
8. B Ausmus, C .225 2 20 0
9. R Oswalt, P .173 0 2 0
Name AVG HR RBI SB
1. A Soriano, LF .288 23 63 17
2. K Fukudome, RF .265 9 54 11
3. D Lee, 1B .293 18 77 8
4. A Ramirez, 3B .280 24 100 2
5. M DeRosa, 2B .293 18 79 6
6. J Edmonds, CF .257 15 43 0
7. G Soto, C .291 20 79 0
8. R Theriot, SS .311 1 34 21
9. J Marquis, P .196 0 4 0
I like Theriot down there in his rightful position.
#5 Re: Bashing Theriot
Is so lame. How about a cheap shot at Fontenot while you're at it?
#16 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Theriot bashing is so 2007.
Get over it.
#2 Sheets
Ben Sheets left his start against the Mets with tightness in his left groin.
#3 Re: Sheets
He has two groins?
#4 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Theriot OPS .756
Fukudome OPS .754
Theriot BA .311
Fukudome BA .265
Theriot OBP .391
Fukudome OBP .366
I think Fukudome is the one who needs to start batting 8th, he is the weakest bat on the team unless he proves otherwise over the course of a couple months.
BA Per month for Theriot
.340
.308
.309
.333
.284
BA per month for Fuku
.305
.295
.264
.236
.190
Theriot remains consistent and Fuku keeps getting worse as the league has figured out a slider away can easily get Fuku out.
#6 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
I completely agreed before I read this comment based on season performance and Fukudome's recent struggles, but I had no idea his average declined so consistently. Its quite concerning when you present it like that. Right? OK, now is a good time for someone argue how this is normal as a player adjusts to a new league...please
#7 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Not only the average, but everything else was bad in August. In 99 PA's Kosuke threw up the Neifi-esque 193/293/253 for the highly coveted 546 OPS. That doesn't need to be hitting second.
At the same time, Theriot's OPS did drop over 100 points from July to August, and August was his lowest month of the season at 686. But, the OBP was still there at 384.
#8 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Absolutely Theriot is better than Fukudome at this point by far.
Cubs fans are having a hard time coming tot he realization of how bad Kosuke is struggling. If it was any other player there would be lots of booing.
#9 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
It's not what you have done, it's what you are likely to do, that's important, and I'll take Fukudome's likely to do at the top of the order over Theriot's.
#14 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Yup, Theriot is far more likely to get a hit than Fukudome be any reasonable and objective analysis of their stats this year.
It would be one thing if Fukudome just had a bad month...he's simply had a bad year based on 4 months of pitchers adjusting to him and him not adjusting to the league.
#17 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
What you are likely going to do versus what you have done?
How does one determine what a player is "Likely" going to do? Typically you look at their stats and past history.
So let's see, who is more likely to hit well...someone who has been in a 4 month slump batting around .200 and not getting on base...or someone who all year long is hitting above .300 and getting on base 4/10 times they are at the plate.
By a long shot, I expect far more out of Theriot for the rest of this season than Fukudome....and I think bueying him in the 8th spot is kinda nuts.
#18 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Anybody have Jacques Jones' cell number?
Watching 3+ more years of Fukudome hitting weak grounders because he bails out on EVERY PITCH will be very, very frustrating. He must be the worst (offensive) starting OF in baseball right now.
Come home, Jacques!
#20 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Could you please describe what you believe Fukudome and Theriot are likely to do for the remainder of this season?
I guess I just don't follow the argument.
#25 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Sure.
Theriot is more likely to be a bad basestealer and baserunner, ground into double plays at a ferocious rate and never drive anyone in from first base.
I'd expect him to hit about .280 .360 .305 for the rest of the way.
Fukudome is more likely to be a competent basestealer and base runner, seldom ground into double plays and occasionally drive in someone from first.
I'd expect him to hit .275 .350 .400 the rest of the way.
Then there is also the advantage of not stacking 4 right-handed bats at the top of the lineup, and the fact that Fukudome sees more pitches than Theriot, which can be helpful following Soriano's one and done at bats.
Despite having more play time, Theriot has created fewer runs than Fukudome on the season, and that doesn't count his getting thrown out at third on GB to short, and standing on third during wild pitches antics.
I could be wrong, but I don't give that much credence to the 'MLB pitchers have figured him out theory'. I don't think MLB pitchers and advance scouts are any more clever than those in Japan, and with some mechanical adjustments and refreshed approach, Fukudome is going to be decent from here on out.
#26 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
2008 Runs Created (stats from THT)
Theriot 68
Fukudome 72
Advantage Fukudome
#37 Re: 2008 Runs Created (stats from THT)
2008 Runs Created (stats from ESPN)
Theriot 72.8
Fukudome 70.5
Post All-Star Game Runs Created
Theriot 22.4
Fukudome 15.6
#48 Re: 2008 Runs Created (stats from THT)
Read the fine print. THT uses a version of the formula which takes into account hitting w/ runners in scoring position and park factors. Definitely more accurate than the ESPN formula. In either case the numbers are close enough to say that they have both contributed on a similar level to the success of the team.
#49 Re: 2008 Runs Created (stats from THT)
Okay. What does THT say about RC post All-Star game?
The problem with Fukudome is after an auspicious start the pilot light has gone out on his bat.
#28 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Well, you also expected Theriot to suck all season and he hasn't, so I am not sure why we should all of a sudden start believing your predictions now.
But let me get this correct. You basically expect Theriot to completely tank, hitting 25 points less than he has on the year, getting on base 30 percentage points lower, and slugging SIXTY points lower. And at the same time you expect Fukudome to magically hit 45 points higher than his average over the last 3 months?!?!? Well, I guess if you truly believe that, then sure, Fukudome should hit second. The chances of that happening, though, are slim to none.
Even over the last week (7 games) where Theriot has hit an abyssmal .202, Fukodome has still managed to do WORSE, hitting a whopping .150.
#29 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
I don't recall saying that Theriot was going to suck all season. When did I say that?
I expect Theriot to do what Theriot does, have a decent OBP with no power, and vastly overrated baserunning skills. Now that his SB numbers are more in line with his actual ability level, you'll notice that a lot of people aren't so happy about his overall base running skills.
I also predicted that Fukudome would have around a .360 OBP and slug somewhere in the low .400's.
But I certainly don't expect you to believe anything.
"The chances of that happening, though, are slim to none."
OK, Mr Smart pants, slim to none. What's that like 1%? I'll give you twice those odds, $100 bucks against your $5000 (or whatever you can afford to lose), two Cubs tickets against 100 etc. Deal?
Since we're picking arbitrary ranges of numbers, I am going to use the last 9 days.
Kosuke had hit .280 .400 .440 and Theriot has 'hit' .233 .343 .343.
Not to go all crunch on you, but the point is that you have to look past the numbers. And when I do that, I see Fukudome being the more useful offensive player, not counting his ancilliary benefits.
#33 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
if you gave someone theriot or fuku...toss the $$ out the window...and say "you can keep 1 for 3 years"...personally, i'd take fuku cuz his upside is way larger.
ask me who i trust this last month of the year given what's going on so far...i'd take theriot.
unfortunately...or fortunately...the cubs have both. there's no "real" RF backup and theriot hasn't played inconsistently enough to have cedeno take his spot (not like cedeno is some slam-dunk-in-waiting).
to add another tangent to it...you give a choice of cedeno or theriot over the next 3 years and you'd have some people picking cedeno because of his upside.
theriot at his peak is damn useful, but his peak pretty much involves not finding gloves while chopping the ball past infielders.
#44 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
...while Fukudome's post-April peak involves bailing out with his entire body on every pitch, even from RH pitchers, so all he can do is slap a weak ground ball someplace.
Did anyone really expect him to hit the ball with authority in the 9th yesterday, despite the righty/lefty matchup?
This isn't a slump -- this is what that type of hitting style will get you after the league has seen you a bit.
#59 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
you pitch fuku down/in or up/in...you get him out or you get weak grounders which may or may not go for a hit.
he's got issues wide/wide-low, too.
so basically a pitcher has both sides of the plate to "aim" their stuff to find a vulnerability.
he HAS to reclaim one of these zones (or start murdering the mistakes). right now the pitchers got fuku swaying in the box (im not talking about his funky swing) with 2 "good" parts of the plate for the pitcher to go to.
#50 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
I can agree with that. Based on long term potential, I'd see more of an upside with Fuku if he takes the off season to figure out what the problem is.
As for the remainder of this year...I'd certianly take Theriot over Fuku.
#60 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Yeah, sure, like I'd take that bet. You just said when you look beyond the numbers you see Fukudome being more useful. So basically, you will always think you are right and will always think you won. But you know what, I'll keep track of their stats from tonight (9/2) on, and after the last day of the season we can compare who was more useful to the team over the lsat month.
Also, for the record, Theriot's SB% is over 60% and is only like 10% below Fukudome, who barely ever even attemps a steal. They both go first to third and second to home equally well. And while Theriot has the edge in double plays, it's probably due in part to the fact that he actually makes contact. Fukudome is almost at 100Ks
#61 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Theriot's SB% is over 60%
Over 60%? Huh? That doesn't mean that it is good.
Theriot has been awful on the bases all year.
#62 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
My point was that he is not that much worse than Fukudome. The cutoff is pretty arbitrary. If Theriot steals 4-5 bases this month without getting caught then he is concidered "good"? If Fukudome gets caught twice this month without adding a SB he is then "bad."
I don't think he has been awful all year. He had a bad stretch where he got thrown out a lot early on. Maybe he wasn't reading the pitchers well for that month or so. It happens. He's only been CS 5 times since the end of May.
#63 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
The cutoff isn't arbitrary, it has statistical support backing it up. The more potent your team is, the more costly a failed stolen base is(or a double play or a turning a groundout to short into a FC).
#64 Re: Game 138 Thread / Astos @ Cubs (1 of 3)
Hey, don't get mad at me because your money isn't where your mouth is. Let's just make it simple start of September. That way you get Fukudome's 0-4 and Theriot's 1-3 with an infield hit on a dropped ball and a GIDP with a wild throw that turned into just a FC.
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