Game 144 Thread / Cubs @ Cardinals (1 of 3)
|SP||Ryan Dempster||SP||Kyle Lohse|
|15-6, 2.99, 167 K, 72 BB, 183.2 IP||13-6, 3.76, 106 K, 44 BB, 182 IP|
|LF||Alfonso Soriano||CF||*Skip Schumaker|
|2B||*Mike Fontenot||3B||Troy Glaus|
|1B||Derrek Lee||1B||Albert Pujols|
|3B||Aramis Ramirez||RF||Ryan Ludwick|
|RF||Mark DeRosa||LF||*Rick Ankiel|
|CF||*Jim Edmonds||C||Yadier Molina|
|C||Geovany Soto||2B||#Felipe Lopez|
|SS||Ronny Cedeno||P||Kyle Lohse|
|P||Ryan Dempster||SS||Cesar Izturis|
The Cubs and the Cardinals meet in the first of three at Busch and the first of six matchups between now and the end of the season. The Cubs lead the season series, 5-4, and have won 10 of their last 15 in St. Louis.
Dempster won his only start this year against the Cardinals, allowing 2 ER over 6 2/3 in a 6-2 Cub victory in early August. Lohse is 0-1, 6.92 in a pair of starts this season vs. the Cubs, but is otherwise having a fine year, producing more ground balls, yielding fewer long balls, and allowing fewer walks than at virtually any other point in his MLB career.
By Baseball Prospectus's reckoning, the Cubs, 4 1/2 games up on Milwaukee, enter play with an 88.8% likelihood of winning the division, 10.3% chance of winning the Wild Card, and a 99.1% overall likelihood of reaching the post-season. The Cardinals, 9 games back of the Cubs and 4 1/2 behind the Wild Card-leading Brewers, come in at .2% / 4.5% / 4.7%. In other words, deprived of greater glory, Cardinal fans may realize no more significant joy in these last few weeks than seeing their heroes get in the way of a Cubs celebration.
Every time the Cubs and Cards meet and I enter the batting orders, I stumble as I remember to enter the St. Louis pitcher in the eighth spot. That led me to look up a few team season stats. First, what kind of production the Cubs and Cardinals are getting from their respective #8 hitters:
|Cubs 8th-place hitters||.300||.362||.442||804||12||79|
|Cards 8th-place hitters||.196||.247||.292||539||8||51|
Then from the #9 hole:
|Cubs 9th-place hitters||.231||.271||.340||611||10||60|
|Cards 9th-place hitters||.266||.322||.323||645||2||34|
The Cubs' #8 numbers have been helped by the fine season they have received from Reed Johnson. The Cubs #9 numbers reflect an offensively outstanding pitching staff (thank you, Carlos Zambrano!), one that's 105 OPS points better than the next best-hitting group of pitchers, which happens to belong to St. Louis.
And the Cardinals' production from the 9th place? That right there is what you call the handiwork of a former Chicago Cub, one Cesar Izturis.
Rob G: Just a little roster note that Felix Pie and Randy Wells will be joining the team. To make room for Wells on the roster, the Cubs have moved Jon Lieber to the 60-day DL.
best relievers in baseball tend to not be the best relievers for very long though...
also, when you start just trading away guys for marginal benefits, that window will shrink. The window is easily through 2021, just have to look how long Rizzo is signed for and how long they have rights to Bryant, Russell and so on down the line.
Can't say I'm too worried about the SP, they've done nothing but land guys on the cheap and on the expensive since they've arrived. TheJedi will figure that out.
Not sure I agree with this logic. The Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball, they have spent heavily on the team over the past couple of seasons, have more hitting prospects than they have places for them to play (and more on the way), a clear weakness in the bullpen, and have a 1.5 year window with Arrieta (to say nothing of the likely declines of Lester and Lackey).
Unless you think (maybe even if you do think) Schwarber is the next coming of Babe Ruth, I would certainly consider trading him if it brought back a couple of the best relief pitchers in baseball.
Miggy was going to sit anyway with Lester starting.
In related news, do any of the Cubs pitchers want to throw to Contreras?
Only Russell and Miggy failed to reach base yesterday. Both sit today.
Trading Schwarber actually makes a lot of sense because his actual position is currently being taken by Anthony Rizzo, unless they vote in the DH this offseason.
Trading him for a reliever is never going to happen though. I don't think you can trade Schwarber unless you get a CF'er for a few years (presume Fowler finds his multi-year deal next offseson) or a couple of high end young starters...or an established starter...a good one like Chris Sale.
I don't see what the Yanks have that the Cubs need.
peter gammons on MLB network pushing the yanks/schwarber angle...says insiders from the yanks say brian cashman highly covets him.
unless that conversation starts with a.miller (2/18m left on contract) i dunno how you even start that conversation given the "not trash, but no stars" state of the yanks minor league system.
they got corner OF'r aaron judge, C gary sanchez, RHP james kaprielian's questionable elbow, RHP domingo acevedo...all interesting, none expected to impact the game like schwarber's power potential.
Zo, Heyward, KB, Riz, Contreras (LF), Baez (SS), Szczur (CF), Ross, Lester
damn. low sample size blah blah whatever, but that slash got sneaky good. 10 hits, 4 walks, 2hr, 1 double through 39 PA...nice
Buddy Ryan takes his place alongside George Allen as the great Bear head coaches who never were.
Well, at least he can still hit: Jake slashing .294/.368/.868. Forget hitting 8th -- he should hit 6th.
Curious to see today's lineup vs. a LHP: Ross needs to catch Lester, Joe likes Javy at 3B when Lester pitches. Heyward with back-to-back good games at the plate, and is actually hitting a little better against LHP (.247/.341) than RHP (.232/.321), although neither is much to write home about. But, tomorrow is an early day game, so some regulars will probably sit either today or tomorrow.
Maybe Willson in LF, KB in RF and Almora in CF? If so, Albert Jr., assume every ball is yours.
"Pitching prospects not looking so hot"
That reminds me that Lucas Giolito will start for the Nats tonight.
Well, there you go. Federowicz is one of the best at balls in the dirt.
Reds pitching meeting tomorrow:
"Hey coach...maybe we should walk Bryant?"
"No...keep challenging him with fastballs! What kind of man are you?! The Cubs walked Harper, and look what happened there! They got teased for it, by one of the Nat players! Is that what you want?"
How can I get that feature? I think it woudl be a win-win for all involved.