Playing the Field

Well there isn't much to do this week but speculate, so let's take a look at the potential Cubs first round playoff opponent. There's a poll at the end of the post.

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New York Mets - 65% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Mets win the Wild Card, they'll be the Cubs first round opponent. 

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 775 2nd
RA 688 6th
BA .267 4th
OBP .341 4th
SLG .424 6th
HR 170 6th
Starters' ERA 3.98 5th
Relievers' ERA 4.21 10th
K/9 Rate 7.20 6th
Team Defensive Efficiency .704 3rd

 

What They're Good At: Throwing Johan Santana, scoring runs and making plays in the field.

What They're Bad At: Relieving. 

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: If the Mets clinch before Sunday, that means Johan Santana in Game 1 and he's been aces since the break (2.34 ERA). While certainly below the level of the Cubs starting pitchers, Oliver Perez, Pedro Martinez, Mike Pelfrey and possibly John Maine all have the potential to scrounge up an excellent outing. Although they've performed as a unit better against lefties than righties, they do load up on lefties against the Cubs mostly righty staff and the quartet of Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Delgado is quite formidable.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 91.51% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Brewers win the Wild Card, Cubs will play the division winner with the worst record.

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 665 13th
RA 626 1st
BA .262 6th
OBP .330 7th
SLG .394 13th
HR 128 13th
Starters' ERA 3.93 3rd
Relievers' ERA 3.25 1st
K/9 Rate 7.50 5th
Team Defensive Efficiency .699 8th

 

What They're Good At: Pitching, getting injured and penciling in Manny Ramirez

What They're Bad At: hitting, especially with any power

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: They say pitching wins in the playoffs and that is about the only thing the Dodgers do well, other than praying that Manny Ramirez will score some runs for them. But their hot streak came mostly against the likes of San Diego, Pittsburgh, Colorado and sweeping Arizona. A matter of fact, they just loss two of three at home to the Giants and feature a middle infield of Angel Berroa and Blake DeWitt. They're starters of Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and either Greg Maddux or Clayton Kershaw have been quite good, but they're going to have to be great.


I guess that was more of a why the Cubs Do Want to Play Them. 

Philadelphia Phillies - 99.63% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Phillies blow the division but hold on to the Wild Card.

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 773 3rd
RA 657 3rd
BA .255 10th
OBP .332 6th
SLG .436 2nd
HR 208 1st
Starters' ERA 4.24 7th
Relievers' ERA 3.25 2nd
K/9 Rate 6.71 12th
Team Defensive Efficiency .704 4rd

 

What They're Good At: Hitting home runs, relieving, making plays in the field.

What They're Bad At: Striking out hitters, middle of order is very strikeout prone

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: Cole Hamels has owned the Cubs twice this year and Brett Myers has a 2.62 ERA since coming back from his demotion and Jamie Moyer continues to defy the laws of science and aging. Nearly as good a 1-8 as the Cubs and a formidable quartet of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. The bullpen has been lights out for most of the season despite a small misstep the last time they faced the Cubs.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 8.48% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Brewers win Wild Card and Diamondbacks overtake Dodgers for NL West crown.

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 697 10th
RA 674 5th
BA .251 13th
OBP .327 8th
SLG .415 8th
HR 152 10th
Starters' ERA 3.93 4th
Relievers' ERA 3.98 6th
K/9 Rate 7.69 3rd
Team Defensive Efficiency .696 12th

 

What They're Good At: Starting pitching, striking out hitters, having Cub-killer Adam Dunn in the lineup, beating us last year in the NLDS

What They're Bad At: Hitting, making plays in the field

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: The trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson could be a bit intimidating and the bullpen is "good enough". Ted Lilly might throw a fastball to Chris Young as well.

And for comparision's sake, a look at the Cubs statistical dominance. It's a shame they just don't play these on paper.

Chicago Cubs

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 829 1st
RA 641 2nd
BA .278 1st
OBP .355 1st
SLG .444 1st
HR 177 5th
Starters' ERA 3.76 1st
Relievers' ERA 3.98 5th
K/9 Rate 7.82 1st
Team Defensive Efficiency .713 1st

 

What They're Good At: Just about everything.

What They're Bad At: the 7th inning

Why No One Wants to Play the Cubs: Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and even Ted Lilly can shut down any lineup. If you don't have a lead going into the 8th inning, you won't have one to end the game. If you are leading late in the game, there's a good chance the Cubs will be leading to the end the game. The entire lineup doesn't consist of one easy out...not even the pitcher in some cases.

I don't think it matters much who the Cubs end up playing at what point. I think the Phillies are probably the best team besides the Cubs right now and fully expect the Cubs to see them in the NLCS. If I had a choice, I'd take the Dodgers as the first round opponent, the chances of Furcal and/or Kent being ready seems pretty slim and the Cubs can just workaround Manny Ramirez. If the Brewers somehow right the ship this week and get Sheets and/or Yovani Gallardo available and healthy in the playoffs, they're about the only other team that could put a scare into the Cubs.

Comments

I'm still more scaredified of the Dodgers' pitching, than the Mets, personally.

sure, overall its better than the Mets and they got Saito back. But all you have to do is score 2 runs against them to win....

That's a lot, can we do it? Anyway, Manny has been hitting 9-run homeruns nightly, so it might take more. What about after Harden pitches his 5 innings and we have to run out Howry and Someninja, or whoever, for two innings? Plus, I'd really love to knock out the Mets in the first round.

if any team pitches to Manny with runners on, they're retarded, unless the bases are loaded of course and then I still might consider walking him.
 
Personally I think Lou is going to use Marmol for 2 innings a few times in the playoffs.

Yeah, ok. I just feel like arguing. I think either team would be ok.

also want to say I think the Dodgers pitchers numbers are a bit inflated. Besides getting to pitch at Dodger Stadium and Petco, the offenses in the NL West have been terrible. The Rockies were the best at 9th in the NL in runs scored.

Perhaps that's true, but they've also pitched well against the Cubs...in my don't-feel-like-looking-it-up-to-verify opinion.

more importantly, are you going to change your sig line next week?

Yup...

2007 TCR Keeper Champion
2008 Silver Medal Winner

we're giving out medals this year? who sprung for that? And what's the 4th place medal? Aluminum?

Ok, that was in the Olympic spirit. Yahoo gives virtual trophies on your fantasy sports page. I fully expect the silver one, but Agility has been gaining on me, so it might be bronze. You get a hardy handshake and a pat on the back.

Yesterday I would have said the Mets, but I switched to the Dodgers.
The prospect of facing Santana in game 1 of a short series makes me a bit sick to my stomach.

I think we tend to underestimate the importance of a dominant single starting pitcher in a first to 3 series. You lose to their ace, you need to win all 3 games against the rest of the staff.

If you don't have a lead going into the 8th inning, you won't have one to end the game.

When they're on, Marmol and Wood are a great closing combination. But so far this year, the Cubs have lost 15 games when their opponents didn't have a lead going into the eighth.

Recent comments

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  • Do you start him Sunday or not?

    @jonmorosi Pitchers w/ sub-2.00 ERA in year of 185+ IP this century: Pedro ’00, Clemens ’05, Kershaw ’13/’14, Arrieta ’15, Greinke ’15, Hendricks ’16.

    Rob G. 1 hour 4 min ago view
  • Yeah -- that would be rough for him. But, Monty is getting people out, he's a lefty and he has experience working out of the bullpen. Hammel? None of the above.

    billybucks 1 hour 59 min ago view
  • even if he's not starting, abandoning hammel would be a bit of a 'screw you.' i think it might be -monty +hammel, but it's speculation.

    either way, someone's gonna be disappointed.

    crunch 3 hours 21 sec ago view
  • Joe said he is leaning towards 11 pitchers and 14 position players.

    - 4 starters, Chapman, Rondon, Strop, CJ, Wood, Grimm, Monty. No dice for Cahill or Smith.
    - 3 catchers, Rizz, Zo, Addy, KB, Javy, Heyward, Fowler, Soler, Coghlan, TLS and then Sczcur over Almora?

    billybucks 3 hours 11 min ago view
  • Cubs 3B Jason Vosler made two really bad throws on consecutive AB in the 8th. Fortunately the game was no longer in doubt at the time  

    The first one was a one-hop lob that allowed the batter to reach base on an infield single, and the second was air-mailed so far over the first-baseman's head that it went over the fence and landed in Field #4.

    Arizona Phil 3 hours 46 min ago view
  • E-MAN: Despite the HR, Donnie Dewees is really more of a slash hitter (the HR was an opposite-field line-drive) who can accumulate lots of doubles & triples. He's also a good bunter and can get on base that way, too. Although he was thrown out trying to steal in the game, he's actually a good base-stealer and baserunner.

    Defensively he has plus-range and tracks fly balls OK, so he can play CF, but he has a rag arm that requires the middle infielders to go out further into CF to make relays.

    Arizona Phil 3 hours 47 min ago view
  • I don't know how many of you remember Bobby Knoop, who played 2B for the Angels, White Sox, and Royals back in the day, but he is a coach-emeritus for the Angels, and works with the infielders at Minor League Camp, Extended Spring Training, and Instructs. He's pretty spry for a 77-year old, and he really knows his shit.

    Arizona Phil 4 hours 14 min ago view
  • With a big lead, Chapman was throwing sliders and changeups, something he's reluctant to do in a save situation. (Len and Jim covered this.)

    VirginiaPhil 4 hours 23 min ago view
  • Maybe they have a bad owner, I don't know, but they still have players and fans and a franchise, all devastated by this loss of life. Plus, everybody who follows baseball is a fan of a guy like this. It's why I used the word tragedy, which other people throw around but I try to be careful with.

    I'm at an age where I remember old incidents better than recent ones, but I have to go back to Herb Score for something as disturbing.

    VirginiaPhil 4 hours 39 min ago view
  • That was Dee Gordon's only HR this year. Wow.

    billybucks 4 hours 41 min ago view
  • Thank you PHIL.

    Glad you avoided temps in the 100s.

    I remember you mentioning Dewees needng plenty of work in th IF. How are his OF instincts?

    Also, did see much of Satchel McElroy? Only Satchel I have heard about other than the "orignal" and one of Woody Allen's kids.

    The E-Man 7 hours 26 min ago view
  • Hate to give the Mets credit, but they did everything right tonight in what had to be a very tough game for them to play. As Hollandsworth said on the Cubs post-game -- if you watched the game, you saw Mets players consoling Marlins players who were in tears during the game. Between that and the way Molina handled the Ross farewell -- maybe the Mets and Cardinal players aren't pure evil. Just the fans.

    billybucks 14 hours 57 min ago view
  • New York Mets @Mets
    Dee Gordon lead-off home run. #AintEvenMad #BiggerThanBaseball 1-0 Miami.
    7:25 PM - 26 Sep 2016

    https://twitter.com/Mets/status/780548827963133953

    crunch 15 hours 35 min ago view
  • Amazing effort by Gordon -- truly remarkable.

    billybucks 15 hours 56 min ago view
  • Cubs get 100, KB gets 100, Hendricks gets below 2.00, Cards get absolutely destroyed by the Reds -- all good, other than some Rondon concern. Hopefully, he can get a few outings in this week and find his groove. Also, I guess Soler is still struggling with his right side. Hmmmm. Too bad Joe didn't let Addy bat with the bases loaded in the 7th -- great RBI opportunity.

    I assume all the relievers are on a set schedule this week, but it seems strange Chapman pitched back-to-back.

    billybucks 15 hours 58 min ago view
  • Barry Rozner article interviewing Greg Maddux (with comments on Kyle Hendricks).

    http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20160925/sports...

    "I like watching him pitch," Maddux said of Hendricks. "I like guys that rely on movement and location. I can relate to him. That's what I had to do. "I'd rather watch him pitch than some lefty throwing 95 mph."

    Cubster 16 hours 19 min ago view