Cubs to Win World Series, and Other Hopeful Links

What am I missing if the Cubs and Dodgers are so evenly matched how did the Cubs win 97 games in one of the best divisions in baseball while the Dodgers only won 84 games in maybe the worst division of baseball?

Ok, but even with Manny the Dodgers didn't start to win until they started playing bad teams.

Aug 13-16
Sept 17-8

In the end I guess it doesn't matter. They will play the games and the Cubs will either win or they wont.

Per Sullivan...
Cubs to work out at Wrigley at 3pm. NLDS roster and possibly Wednesday lineup to be announced subsequently. Plus MLB found additional advertising space at Wrigley to exploit during the post-season (padded walls along left- and right-field foul lines).

In the "Huh?" category, from th ESPN/Kurkjian article:

A former teammate of Zambrano was asked recently if Zambrano was up for the pressure of starting a Game 1 of the playoffs. "No,'' the teammate said. "He has a big heart and big stones, but he'll be way too fired up. He can't even calm down for the first game of the season, let alone the first game of the playoffs.''

Did that "former teammate" happen to watch Game 1 of the playoffs last year? Fail.

Maybe he'll be different in Game 3. He's as good a Game 3 pitcher as you'll find.

That would be great, if Z were pitching Game 3.

- sigh -

I have been trying to relieve nervous tension by reading comparison stats, probability factors, etc.

This is great "fun", but when it comes down to it, in 11 games the intangibles are huge.

Plain and simple, the Cubs players just have to get the job done on the field. No matter the opponent, venue, weather conditions, etc. The multi-millionaire superstars will just have to BRING IT and be better than the other guy's. Also, it is time for the annual post-season unsung hero to step forward for OUR team for ONE FUCKING TIME! Who is gonna be OUR Geoff Blum or Scotty "Pods" to make a huge play? And - WE are then ones who need - NO, fucking DESERVE, some LUCKY BREAKS, DAMMIT!

The stats hold that the Cubs were the best all-around NL team, and somehow they are all gonna have to step it up to the ultimate level, take no prisoners, and "want it" more than anything.

I believe Jim Edmonds perhaps may have a positive influence on all of this. Time will tell, and

GO CUBS!

So, I just got done reading every Cubs-Dodgers post-season preview, analysis, review and prognostication that Googled up out of the news this morning.

General consensus: Even though the Dodgers pitching is better, the Cubs are given the edge because their pitching is comparable, their hitting is better, and their defense is better.

But most of what the authors had to say is pretty worthless because the Dodgers team we're going to face is so much improved over the one that was 54-55 on August 1. They sure have a formidable veteran bench now.

So here are a couple of POSITIVE personal observations. Things I didn't read elsewhere.

Conventional Wisdom --- We're facing a dangerous team. The Dodgers are red HOT since getting Manny. Truth: Since Aug 1 the Dodgers played .566 baseball against a pretty
weak schedule. Over the same period the Cubs
played much better---.627 ball---- even though Lou's crew coasted in with a 5-5 record after clinching early. We were the better team before the Dodgers got Manny Ramirez and Derek Lowe got hot AND, AMAZINGLY, we were still better after.

Conventional Wisdom --- LF Manny Ramirez far overmatches Cubs LF Alfonso Soriano. Generally true, but consider this: Manny Ramirez is career .282 .404. .436 .840 vs the Cubs. Alfonso Soriano is .341 .393 .634 1.027 vs the Dodgers. Advantage Alfonso!

Here's hoping Fonzie produces. We're gonna need it.
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BUMMER stat gleaned from the news this AM: The hotter team in September wins the playoff series 64% of the time.

Ernie Banks - "Let's win eleven..."

AGREED!

And, where would all of the NL Playoff teams be without the Pirates?

They should get a token monetary amount from all four teams...

22% sounds about right, actually. There is so much luck involved in baseball that you can't say with any kind of certainty that a better team will beat the lesser team in a series. If these 8 playoff teams played 100 postseasons, I'd expect the Cubs to win their share, maybe 20-25 times.

The secret to winning a World Series isn't to have a great team for a year or two. No, the secret is to have a very good team for several years in a row, make the playoffs repeatedly and hope your ping pong ball gets picked once or twice.

Once a team wins the World Series (or any tournament), we assign all kinds of winning attributes to them (they persevere! they hit in the clutch! they believed in themselves!) and losing ones to those who didn't (they choked! no timely hitting! no character!). In reality, the tournament is structured so that somebody has to win. It doesn't mean they are special; it just means they survived, maybe it was their turn, and maybe they got lucky.

Take 8 quarters and have a coin flip tournament. Four will make it past the first round, two will make the finals, one will win. And it doesn't mean that one quarter is more special than the others.

Now this isn't to say that talent and momentum have nothing to do with winning the World Series -- they do, and that's why the Cubs have the best shot to win it. But the best shot is about a one in five chance.

My point isn't that the WS winner shouldn't be celebrated. It's just that the "specialness" of the winner is often not only overrated, but actually manufactured to tell a nice story.