2008 NLDS Preview: Cubs Run Prevention vs. Dodgers Scoring
Let's finish the preview and see what the Cubs pitching can do against the Dodgers bats.
Dodgers Offense vs. Cubs Pitching and Defense
Dodgers Hitting: .264/.333/.399 .732 OPS(11th in OPS), 126 SB's at a 75% success rate (3rd and 5th respectively)
Cubs Pitching: .242/.316/.395 .711 OPS, 3.87 ERA (1st in BA, 3rd in ERA, , 2nd in the rest,)
Dodgers Hitting vs. Right Handers: .260/.326/.390 .716 OPS
Dodgers Hitting vs. Leftt Handers: .275/.350/.419 .769 OPS
Cubs Pitching vs. Right Handers: .237/.302/.385 .687 OPS
Cubs Pitching vs. Left Handers: .249/.336/.409 .745 OPS
Dodgers are 53-57 when a right-handed pitchers starts the game, 31-21 when a left-handers starts.
Cubs Defense: .706 DER (1st in NL), .832 RZR (6th in the NL)
All Dodgers vs. Ryan Dempster (link) : 175 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .303/.376/.474 .851 OPS, 2.92 ERA in 12.1 IP versus the Dodgers this year.
Best Dodgers Hiiter: Andruw Jones has a .908 OPS against him in 40 AB's
Worst Dodgers Hitter: Jeff Kent has a .688 OPS in 33 AB's.
Trend: 5-2 in his last 10 starts with a 3.10 ERA
All Dodgers vs. Carlos Zambrano (link)
: 199 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .221/.313/.296
Best Dodgers Hiiter: Russell Martin has a 1.513 OPS against him in 13 AB's
Worst Dodgers Hitter: Rafael Furcal has a .384 OPS in 23 AB's.
Trend: 2-2 in his last 9 starts with a 7.28 ERA
All Dodgers vs. Rich Harden (link)
: 34 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .147/.293/.441
Best Dodgers Hiiter: Manny Ramirez has a 1.519 OPS against him in 11 AB's
Worst Dodgers Hitter: Casey Blake is 0 for 8 against him in his career.
Trend: 1-0 in his last 3 starts with a 2.65 ERA
All Dodgers vs. Ted Lilly (link)
: 144 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .243/.315/.528
Best Dodgers Hiiter: Manny Ramirez has a .959 OPS against him in 42 AB's
Worst Dodgers Hitter: Casey Blake has a .673 OPS in 21 AB's.
Trend: 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.93 ERA
Cubs Bullpen: 4.10 ERA as relievers was 8th in the NL. 1.73 WPA was 5th in the NL.
September Stats for Dodgers Hitters (link):
Nomar Garciaparra: 1.403 OPS
Jeff Kent 1.375 OPS (in 8 AB's)
Andre Ethier 1.249 OPS, 8 2B's
Manny Ramirez 1.218 OPS, 8 HR's
Blake DeWitt .872 OPS, 18 BB's
Pablo Ozuna .833 OPS
Russell Martin .785 OPS
Juan Pierre .758 OPS
Matt Kemp .750 OPS
Casey Blake .711 OPS
Angel Berroa .689 OPS
James Loney .526 OPS
Rafael Furcal .522 OPS (in 4 Ab's)
Danny Ardoin .500 OPS
- Will Ryan Dempster keep it going in the playoffs?
- How healthy and effective are Zambrano and Harden?
- Who will bridge the gap between the starters and Marmol and Wood?
- Can the Dodgers offense sustain their recent hot streak?
- How effective will Rafael Furcal be?
- Will the Cubs pitch to Manny Ramirez and if not, can the rest of the Dodgers lineup make the Cubs pay?
Thoughts: The only reason this series has any chance of being interesting is because questions linger on whether Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden are healthy enough to be at the top of their games. That and the fact that Lou might use Bob Howry in a game. Nonetheless, the Dodgers offense certainly did improve with the addition of Manny Ramirez, going from 4.14 Runs Scored per game to 4.70, which if they had done that all year would be good for the 6th best offense rather than 13th. I already brought up my concerns that the Dodgers hot streak was inflated by a soft September schedule, but there's no doubt they are a better team than their full season numbers show.
Unfortunately no one but Zambrano and Harden (and maybe Lou) really know if they're at full strength and if they're not, there isn't much any Cubs or their fans can do about it. Sure, Lou could move Lilly up earlier in the series, but the Dodgers have had a lot more luck against lefties than righties, so there isn't much to gain.
The only real concern I have is if the starters can go at least six and hopefully seven innings. The bridge between the starters and Marmol and Wood is the weak link of this team and every pitch made by someone other than Dempster, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly or Marmol is a going to be a dangerous one.
Defensively, the Cubs probably have been pretty solid all year. Lee and Fukudome are probably the two best defenders but there really isn't a weak member in the entire group. Soriano can be a little adventurous, but he also keeps teams from even thinking of taking an extra base and Ramirez's little bout of wild throws seems to have ended.
Final Prediction: Cubs in 4. They split at Wrigley and the Cubs take both at Dodger Stadium.
I think you're very much overvaluing Schwarber if you think he can fetch Sale by himself. An unproven rookie with demonstrable offensive flaws he hasn't had the chance to show he can overcome and with no defensive upside will never fetch an ace of the quality of Sale in today's market where pitchers are fetching insane prices, especially with Sale's team friendly contract. You'd for sure need to throw in a pitching prospect in return at least.
best relievers in baseball tend to not be the best relievers for very long though...
also, when you start just trading away guys for marginal benefits, that window will shrink. The window is easily through 2021, just have to look how long Rizzo is signed for and how long they have rights to Bryant, Russell and so on down the line.
Can't say I'm too worried about the SP, they've done nothing but land guys on the cheap and on the expensive since they've arrived. TheJedi will figure that out.
Not sure I agree with this logic. The Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball, they have spent heavily on the team over the past couple of seasons, have more hitting prospects than they have places for them to play (and more on the way), a clear weakness in the bullpen, and have a 1.5 year window with Arrieta (to say nothing of the likely declines of Lester and Lackey).
Unless you think (maybe even if you do think) Schwarber is the next coming of Babe Ruth, I would certainly consider trading him if it brought back a couple of the best relief pitchers in baseball.
Miggy was going to sit anyway with Lester starting.
In related news, do any of the Cubs pitchers want to throw to Contreras?
Only Russell and Miggy failed to reach base yesterday. Both sit today.
Trading Schwarber actually makes a lot of sense because his actual position is currently being taken by Anthony Rizzo, unless they vote in the DH this offseason.
Trading him for a reliever is never going to happen though. I don't think you can trade Schwarber unless you get a CF'er for a few years (presume Fowler finds his multi-year deal next offseson) or a couple of high end young starters...or an established starter...a good one like Chris Sale.
I don't see what the Yanks have that the Cubs need.
peter gammons on MLB network pushing the yanks/schwarber angle...says insiders from the yanks say brian cashman highly covets him.
unless that conversation starts with a.miller (2/18m left on contract) i dunno how you even start that conversation given the "not trash, but no stars" state of the yanks minor league system.
they got corner OF'r aaron judge, C gary sanchez, RHP james kaprielian's questionable elbow, RHP domingo acevedo...all interesting, none expected to impact the game like schwarber's power potential.
Zo, Heyward, KB, Riz, Contreras (LF), Baez (SS), Szczur (CF), Ross, Lester
damn. low sample size blah blah whatever, but that slash got sneaky good. 10 hits, 4 walks, 2hr, 1 double through 39 PA...nice
Buddy Ryan takes his place alongside George Allen as the great Bear head coaches who never were.
Well, at least he can still hit: Jake slashing .294/.368/.868. Forget hitting 8th -- he should hit 6th.
Curious to see today's lineup vs. a LHP: Ross needs to catch Lester, Joe likes Javy at 3B when Lester pitches. Heyward with back-to-back good games at the plate, and is actually hitting a little better against LHP (.247/.341) than RHP (.232/.321), although neither is much to write home about. But, tomorrow is an early day game, so some regulars will probably sit either today or tomorrow.
Maybe Willson in LF, KB in RF and Almora in CF? If so, Albert Jr., assume every ball is yours.
"Pitching prospects not looking so hot"
That reminds me that Lucas Giolito will start for the Nats tonight.
Well, there you go. Federowicz is one of the best at balls in the dirt.
Reds pitching meeting tomorrow:
"Hey coach...maybe we should walk Bryant?"
"No...keep challenging him with fastballs! What kind of man are you?! The Cubs walked Harper, and look what happened there! They got teased for it, by one of the Nat players! Is that what you want?"