TCR: No Good Will Come of This

Stuff

Submitted by Rob G. on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 12:55pm

This all still sucks donkey balls, but I'm starting to look at the positive. The only one being that my October is suddenly going to have a lot more free time.

I moved some stuff around on the right sidebar and there's a handy payroll cheat sheet to help you plan out the 2009 Cubs team.

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#1 The last thread is discussing October but I'd like to talk about

Submitted by navigator on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 1:59pm.

September

IN short, forget the won-loss record, the Cubs tanked in September--well before the playoffs began. They appear to have reverted to their natural previous lack of discipline at the plate and their pitching lost their season-long control of the strike zone.

We may not have noticed because most of the teams in our division, i.e. The Reds, Astros, Pirates, and Brewers all sucked worse....

--------------------------------------------------------

So what made the 2008 Cubs different from other teams?
I think it was plate discipline and command of the strike zone.

Plate Discipline-- led to league leading on base percentage, OPS, and run differential.

ERA--thanks to improved command and fewer walks the Cubs led the league in ERA (not just K's) most of the season and wound up third in ERA to go along with their usual league first in strikeouts.

NL Team ERA (Season)
(1)Dodgers 3.68
(2)Brewers 3.85
(3)Cubs 3.87

NL Team BAA (Season)
(1) Cubs .242
(2) Dodgers .251

But look what happened in September:
Team ERA
(1)Dodgers 3.16
(13)Cubs 4.58
Team BAA
(1)Cubs .244
(2)Dodgers .245

Our pitching lost command of the strike zone. Defense suffered and the team ERA ballooned. Even though we still led the league in BAA it didn't matter. More base runners led to more runs allowed.

Turning to the offense: On the season
Team OBP
(1)Cubs .354
(6)Dodgers .333

Team OPS
(1) Cubs .797
(11) Dodgers .732

What happened to our offense in September?

Team OBP
(1)Dodgers .372
(11)Cubs .329
(12)Reds .328
(13)Asstros .321
(14)Pirates .314
(15)Brewers .311

Team OPS
(1)Dodgers .815
(10)Cubs .742

While the Dodgers ascended, we tanked.

Forgetting the strength of schedules, given our statistical reversals in September and the importance of being hot at the end of the season if you want success in the playoffs, in retrospect maybe we should have seen disaster coming.

#3 Re: The last thread

Submitted by The Real Neal on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 2:53pm.

Didn't the Cardinals and White Sox disprove the importance of being hot at the end of the season thing?

Mostly we let too many guys on and then gave up the big hits in the playoffs. The Dodgers didn't let that many guys on, and when they did we didn't get the big hits. Defense, control, brains, timely hitting, timely strikeouts, everything betrayed us. Pretty much a perfect scenario for the Dodgers. Shrug.

********************
What I actually wanted to ask if if Rob could be the 2008 salaries to the left of the players' names on the list he made.

#6 Re: The last thread

Submitted by Rob G. on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 3:34pm.

I'd like to keep each name on one line as much as possible, but I'll see what I can do. For now there is the Cot's Cubs page link that is available under "Quick Links" on the left.

#7 Re: The last thread

Submitted by billybucks on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 3:46pm.

Also -- the Dodgers pitched lights out. Every damn one of them.

Next year's Wrigley vibe will be very interesting -- if the Cubs play well, will it be the joy ride it was this year, or will people hold back? Will the booing be frequent, as it was in 2004?

One last bit of advice from my 49+ years of living -- all this talk about not committing emotionally to next year's team becasue we got burned this year?

BLEEP THAT!

Go all in. Live with passion, not with fear. Celebrate the good times and suck it up and work your way through the tough times. Remember how it felt when Z threw the no-hitter and when A-Ram hit the walk-off against the Sox and when the Cubs swept the Brewers in Milwaukee and whatever personal memories you had -- I was at Wrigley with my 11-year old son when Marmol struck out a hitter with 2 outs and bases loaded in the 9th. We both went nuts, and will always remember that moment. Life is all about accumulating great memories. Bland memories suck.

Go Cubs.

#11 Re: The last thread

Submitted by Chad on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 4:32pm.

I say it all the time. You can't get maximum excitement unless you are willing to accept maximum devastation.

And on an emotional scale maximum excitement tops out at 100% while maximum devastation clocks in @ -120%

#2 Re: Stuff

Submitted by joebwan on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 2:36pm.

When the playoffs started, I told a fellow fan in our office that if my heart was going to get broken again, I'd just as soon they do it right away. If I have two more wishes, I think I'll wish for a nice stock market rally first.

#4 Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by jacos on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 3:12pm.

http://deadspin.com/5059673/shrine-to-futility-gro...

#5 Re: Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by The Joe on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 3:25pm.

Great comment at the end, though: "I thought Wrigley was a shrine to futility"

#10 Re: Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by Chad on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 4:30pm.

We're having sex with our sisters?

#14 Re: Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by The Joe on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 5:40pm.

Huh?

#25 Re: Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by Chad on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 7:02pm.

you said we were acting like Cardinal fans.

#39 Re: Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by 10man on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 10:25pm.

Chad, you just expanded your "legacy" on this site.

#40 Re: Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by Hawkeye on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 10:49pm.

From the "It's a Small World" department. I graduated high school with Josh Hancock. I say this only because you never know whom you might offend. That is not to say I was offended, just thought you might like a bit of perspective.

#50 Re: Great now we are acting like asshole Cardinal fans

Submitted by The Joe on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 10:59am.

No I didn't. I was replying to someone who did.

#8 Re: Stuff

Submitted by HendryIsClueLess on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 3:52pm.

We're all bummed but is anyone surprised about:

- Dempster pitching poorly after he couldn't really handle the 9th inning in 2007; in terms of having the guts to pitch in a big spot
- Soriano stinking in the playoffs when there are good pitchers focused on his ABs.
- Not having enough LH bats to keep RH pitchers honest
- Edmonds bat looking slow
- DLee's poor performance the since April (he was great when nobody was on base)

I was concerned about these things, but we played so well all season, i was hoping it wouldnt come back to bite us.

I guess we can hope for some LH Hitting in 2009, but even that wont get me excited till we get through the first round and have 2 wins in the NLCS.

#9 Re: Stuff

Submitted by johann on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 4:02pm.

Demp did handle the 9th inning last year. He had 3 blown saves, Kerry Wood had 6 this year.

#20 Re: Stuff

Submitted by The Real Neal on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 6:28pm.

Dempster also blew a non-save opportunity last year.

#33 Re: Stuff

Submitted by johann on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:49pm.

Kerry blew a non-save opportunity this year too, so no dice there. And Dempster actually had a lower ERA in save situations then Kerry.

#34 Re: Stuff

Submitted by The Real Neal on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 9:23pm.

Few things here:

First you were being a jackass for omitting Dempster's blowing the four run lead.

When did Wood blow a non-save?

What were their records in 1 run opportunities? 2 runs? Any monkey can get three run saves.

#47 Re: Stuff

Submitted by johann on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 7:38am.

Just taking a quick glance through gamelogs, it looks like 7 of his saves came in 1 run games and 12 came in 2 run games. So 19 of 28 saves, which is pretty impressive no?

Kerry had 12 1-run saves and 9 2-run saves of 34 total saves. So, pretty comparable numbers.

And on the non-save situation thing, I was going by baseball reference's record in non-save situation stat, which shows Kerry with 1 loss. Haven't gone through to see which one that was. I think there was an overtime game he lost in.

I wasn't forgetting Demp's blown game against the Mets, but I think he gets an inordinate amount of hate for that one game. I also think we're hypocrites for how we look at different players. If Demp had blown 6 saves this year, he'd be crucified.

I'm not even saying it was a mistake to move Demp from the closer spot. He worked out well as a starting pitchers, and closers are overrated anyway. Starting pitching is far more important and he helped us this year. I just get sick of the flak Demp got last year and the blindness to Wood's inconsistencies.

#12 Re: Stuff

Submitted by crunch on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 4:36pm.

love the right side-bar...cool stuff

#13 Re: Stuff

Submitted by Jim Hickmans Bat on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 5:32pm.

Why in the hell did Hendry agree to give out NTCs like candy the last few years? Now it comes back to bite the Cubs in the ass, because without them, the Cubs would/should surely deal away Lee's mediocrity for a similar underwhelming contract like say, Jose Guillen (RF).

The Cubs could then target either Teixeira or Dunn in free agency for 1B, which would be a strong addition for the team.

I'd also be all for bringing in Furcal and Sabathia, but hey, it's not my money.

#15 Re: Stuff

Submitted by Charlie on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 5:46pm.

I gag at the thought of replacing Lee with Dunn. Just horrible.

#16 Re: Stuff

Submitted by The Joe on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 5:57pm.

Surely you can't be serious.

#18 Re: Stuff

Submitted by crunch on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 6:08pm.

NTC these days mean less about loving your city and more about having total control of your trade situation and/or what payout it'll take for them to bribe you to leave.

they're becoming pretty common, but "movable" things that just gives players/agents control over their lives.

#24 Re: Stuff

Submitted by Chad on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 7:01pm.

Lee is a 10/5 player after this season.

Correct me if i'm wrong but the NTC goes auto at that point.

#26 Re: Stuff

Submitted by Rob G. on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 7:17pm.

correct, he had a NTC before this season to bridge the gap until his 10/5 rights.

Same for Soriano and Ramirez I believe....

#52 Re: Stuff

Submitted by VirginiaPhil on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:05pm.

It's the new owner's money, which is why I'm skeptical that the Yank-ification of the Cubs will continue.

I'm the world's biggest Jim Hickman fan, by the way, or maybe the second biggest, since you grabbed his name.

Doesn't an NTC just mean that the Cubs will have to pony up some dough to get him to sign off on a trade? Hendry always has extra cash for that sort of thing.

#17 Re: Stuff

Submitted by tbone on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 6:04pm.

Adam Dunn is in physical danger when playing in the field. He needs to burn his mitts and get to the AL as soon as possible.

#19 Re: Stuff

Submitted by WISCGRAD on Mon, 10/06/2008 - 6:25pm.

It's very weird when you look at it, but basically the only difference in Lee's stats from last year to this year is a 35 point drop in BABIP - which lowered his BA, OBP, and SLG. He also had nearly twice as many double plays, but this suggest that last year a few of those made it up the middle or through the hole in the left side. Almost all of his count stats were exactly the same. It's actually uncanny:

Runs - 91 / 93
Hits - 180 / 181
2B - 43 / 41
HR - 22 / 20
RBI - 82 / 90
SB - 6 / 8
BB - 71 / 71
SO - 114 / 119
TB - 291 / 288

I actually don't think we need to get rid of him. His defense is awesome. He is a leader. I think he is just slightly miscast. I think he'd be great in the 2-hole. He has a solid OBP, he hits to the right side a lot. He sees a lot of pitches. He is not terribly slow when on base.

Here would be my plan for 2009:

Find a lead-off 2B or SS. Play Theriot at the other position hitting 8th. Hit Lee 2nd, Ramirez-Soriano-Soto-DeRosa (RF) in some order from 3-6, although I like the order I have them in. Fukudome in CF hitting 7th. If he bombs again, let Pie play and hit there. And keep Johnson as a backup.

I also get rid of Cedeno because he is a turd. And I get rid of Ward and give his spot to Hoffpauer. I keep Blanco.

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