Cubs MLB Roster

Cubs Organizational Depth Chart
40-Man Roster Info

40 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (roster is full) 

42 players are at MLB Spring Training 

31 players on MLB RESERVE LIST are ACTIVE at MLB Spring Training, and nine players are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors. 
11 players are MLB Spring Training NON-ROSTER INVITEES (NRI) 

Last updated 3-17-2024
 
* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS: 17
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Jose Cuas
Kyle Hendricks
* Shota Imanaga
Caleb Kilian
Mark Leiter Jr
* Luke Little
Julian Merryweather
Hector Neris 
Daniel Palencia
* Drew Smyly
* Justin Steele
Jameson Taillon
Hayden Wesneski 
* Jordan Wicks

NRI PITCHERS: 5 
Colten Brewer 
Carl Edwards Jr 
* Edwin Escobar 
* Richard Lovelady 
* Thomas Pannone 

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

NRI CATCHERS: 2  
Jorge Alfaro 
Joe Hudson 

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
* Miles Mastrobuoni
Christopher Morel
Dansby Swanson
Patrick Wisdom

NRI INFIELDERS: 3 
David Bote 
Garrett Cooper
* Dominic Smith

OUTFIELDERS: 5
* Cody Bellinger 
Alexander Canario
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

NRI OUTFIELDERS: 1 
* David Peralta

OPTIONED:
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Ben Brown, RHP 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, RHP 
* Matt Mervis, 1B 
Keegan Thompson, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 

 



Minor League Rosters
Rule 5 Draft 
Minor League Free-Agents

Post-2008 Roster & Projected 2009 Organizational Depth Chart

OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2008:

CHICAGO CUBS RESERVE LIST (40-MAN ROSTER) AS OF 10/7/08:

* bats or throws left
# bats both

NOTE: There are presently 40 players on the Cubs RESERVE LIST (40-man roster), plus two additional players on the 60-day DISABLED LIST (players on 60-day DL do not count against the roster limit) 

PITCHERS (20):
Jose AscanioAUTO-RENEWAL (has ONE minor league option left)
* Neal CottsSALARY-ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Ryan Dempster - can be FREE-AGENT
Chad GaudinSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Angel GuzmanAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
Rich HardenSIGNED FOR 2009 (CLUB OPTION) or SALARY ARBITRATION eligible if CLUB OPTION is declined, and has right to DEMAND TRADE if CLUB OPTION is exercised
Kevin HartAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
* Rich HillAUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
Bob Howry - can be FREE-AGENT
* Ted Lilly - SIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
Carlos MarmolAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (has ONE minor league option left)
Jason Marquis - SIGNED FOR 2009
* Sean MarshallAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (has ONE minor league option left)
Billy PetrickAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
* Carmen Pignatiello AUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
Jeff SamardzijaSIGNED FOR 2009 (has TWO minor league options left & has “NO TRADE” rights)
Randy WellsAUTO-RENEWAL (has THREE minor league options left & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Kerry Wood - can be FREE-AGENT
Michael WuertzSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Carlos Zambrano - SIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)

CATCHERS (3):
Henry BlancoSIGNED FOR 2009 (CLUB OPTION) or can be FREE-AGENT if CLUB OPTION is declined
# Koyie HillAUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Geovany SotoAUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)

INFIELDERS (8):
Ronny CedenoSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Mark DeRosaSIGNED FOR 2009
* Mike FontenotAUTO-RENEWAL (has ONE minor league option left)
* Micah HoffpauirAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
Derrek Lee - SIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
Casey McGeheeAUTO-RENEWAL (has THREE minor league options left)
Aramis RamirezSIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
Ryan TheriotAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (has TWO minor league options left)

OUTFIELDERS (9):  
* Jim Edmonds - can be FREE-AGENT
Jake Fox – AUTO RENEWAL (has ONE minor league option left)
* Kosuke FukudomeSIGNED FOR 2009 (has FOUR minor league options left & has “NO TRADE” rights)
* Sam FuldAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
Reed JohnsonSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (CAN REFUSE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT & OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
* Felix Pie - AUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
* Brad SnyderAUTO RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
Alfonso SorianoSIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
* Daryle Ward - can be FREE-AGENT

60-DAY DISABLED LIST (2):
Chad Fox, P – can be FREE-AGENT
Jon Lieber, P - can be FREE-AGENT

NOTE: A player on the 15-day or 60-day DL must be reactivated no later than 11/20, but a DL assignment is automatically terminated when a player eligible to be a Free-Agent under Article XX of the CBA files for free-agency during the post-World Series Free-Agency Filing Period. Also, a player is automatically removed from the 40-man roster when he files for free-agency under Article XX. 

======================================

ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENT:
Henry Blanco (club option with buy-out)
Ryan Dempster
Jim Edmonds
Chad Fox
Bob Howry

Jon Lieber
Daryle Ward
Kerry Wood
NOTE: MLB players eligible to be free-agents under Article XX of the CBA must file for free-agency during the “Free-Agency Filing Period” (first 15 days after conclusion of the World Series). During the 15-day “Free-Agency Filing Period,” MLB clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own free-agents, although the other 29 MLB clubs can talk to the player about everything except money (they can discuss the benefits of playing in a particular city, how the player will be used, where the player will bat in the lineup or whether a pitcher will start or relieve, length of contract, no-trade rights, etc). Clubs then must decide by December 1st whether to offer salary arbitration to their own free-agents, and if they do offer salary arbitration, the player has until December 7th to accept or decline the offer. If the club does offer salary arbitration to the free-agent and if the player is rated as a Type “A” or Type “B” free-agent by the Elias Sports Bureau statistical service, the player’s old club would receive one or two compensation draft picks in the next June’s Rule 4 Draft if the player signs with another club (two picks if the player is rated Type “A” and one pick if the player is rated Type “B”). If the player’s old club does not offer salary arbitration on 12/1, the player’s old club can continue to negotiate with the player, but the club would not receive a compensation draft pick (or picks) if the player signs with another club.

=====================================

SIGNED FOR 2009

+ has “NO TRADE” rights
% can demand trade per Article XX of CBA if club option is exercised

Henry Blanco - $3M club option or $300K buy-out
Mark DeRosa - $5.5M  
+ Kosuke Fukudome - $11.5M
% Rich Harden - $7M club option or salary arbitration 
+ Derrek Lee - $13M
+ Ted Lilly - $12M
Jason Marquis - $9.875M 
+ Aramis Ramirez - $15.65M
+ Jeff Samardzija - $1.3M
+ Alfonso Soriano - $16M
+ Carlos Zambrano - $17.75M
 

TOTAL (SO FAR) - $112.575M (includes Blanco and Harden club options)
NOTE: TOTAL does NOT include so-called “pro-rated” signing bonuses that are used by MLB and the MLBPA for the purpose of calculating club payroll to determine possible “Competitive Balance Tax” obligations (tax is applied when a club’s payroll reaches $155M), because signing bonuses are usually paid in full when a player signs a contract (which is why it’s called a “signing bonus”) except when otherwise noted.

==============================

ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY-ARBITRATION:
Ronny Cedeno 
Neal Cotts
Chad Gaudin 
Angel Guzman (could qualify as a "Super Two" - see NOTE)
Rich Harden (but only if 2009 club option is declined)
Reed Johnson 
Carlos Marmol (could qualify as a "Super Two" - see NOTE)
Sean Marshall (could qualify as a "Super Two" - see NOTE)
Ryan Theriot  (could qualify as a "Super Two"- see NOTE)
Michael Wuertz
 

PROJECTED ADDITION TO PAYROLL IF ALL FIVE PLAYERS WHO ARE DEFINITELY ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY ARBITRATION (not including Rich Harden, Angel Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Theriot) ARE OFFERED ARBITRATION: $7.5M 
NOTE: Players who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time (MLB ST) in 2008 and who have accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB ST through the 2008 season could possibly qualify for salary arbitration as a "Super Two" post-2008 if the player rates among the top 17% in MLB ST of all players in that category. The four Cubs players who are eligible to possibly qualify as a "Super Two" post-2008 are Ryan Theriot (2+118 MLB ST), Angel Guzman (2+095), Sean Marshall (2+087), and Carlos Marmol (2+084).

Clubs must decide by December 12th whether to offer salary arbitration to players who are eligible. If the club elects to offer salary arbitration, the club and the player proceed onward through the arbitration process, but the player and the club can reach an agreement at any point prior to a hearing. If the club decides not to offer arbitration to an arbitration-eligible player on 12/12, the player immediately becomes an unrestricted free-agent at that time and is free to sign with any MLB club (including his former club), and the player’s old club receives no compensation if the player signs with a new club. 

============================================

AUTO-RENEWAL (PRE-ARBITRATION)

NOTE: 2009 MLB minimum salary is $400K with a $65K minimum “minor league split salary” ($32.5K minimum “minor league split” for players with no MLB ST who are on 40-man roster for the first time). Also, a minor league split salary for an “auto-renewal” player must be at least 60% of what the player was actually paid in salary during 2008 season. Clubs must tender contracts to “auto-renewal” (pre-arbitration) players on December 12th. If no contract is offered, the player is considered “non-tendered” and immediately becomes an unrestricted free-agent and can sign with any MLB club (including his old club). If a contract is tendered on 12/12, the player has until the first week of March to negotiate with his club, but if no agreement is reached by that time, the club can automatically renew the player’s contract for an amount no less than 80% of the previous year’s salary.

Jose Ascanio
Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Sam Fuld
Angel Guzman
Kevin Hart 
Koyie Hill
Rich Hill
Micah Hoffpauir
Carlos Marmol
Casey McGehee
Sean Marshall
Billy Petrick
Felix Pie
Carmen Pignatiello
Brad Snyder
Geovany Soto
Ryan Theriot
Randy Wells
 

PROJECTED ESTIMATED 2009 AUTO-RENEWAL SALARIES FOR NINE PLAYERS: $4M
NOTE:
Total does NOT include minor league split salaries for players on 40-man roster who are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors. 

====================================

PROJECTED ESTIMATED 2009 TOTAL PAYROLL AS OF TODAY (includes the 11 players who are signed for 2009 and the five players who are eligible for salary arbitration, plus nine “auto renewal” players TBD who would be needed to fill-out the 25-man roster): $124M  

==================================

ELIGIBLE TO BE RULE 55 MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT:
Andres Blanco, SS
Mike Burns, RHP
Hector Carrasco, RHP
Robinson Chirinos, C-IF
Matt Craig, 1B-3B
Jason Dubois, OF-1B
Doug Deeds, OF-1B
Danny Fatheree, C 
Luis Figueroa, INF
Dumas Garcia, RHP
Adam Harben, RHP
Josh Kroeger, OF
Jason Stanford, LHP
Bobby Scales, IF-OF
Andres Torres, OF
NOTE: Clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own minor league free-agents until the end of the World Series. If a minor league FA is added to his club’s 40-man roster prior to the conclusion of the World Series, the player is not eligible to be a free-agent. Players eligible to be minor league free-agents who are not added to their club’s 40-man roster by the conclusion of the World Series are free to sign a major league or minor league contract with any organization, including their old club.    

============================================

ELIGIBLE FOR 2008 RULE 5 DRAFT:
James Adduci, OF
Alberto Alburquerque, RHP
Mitch Atkins, RHP
Matt Avery, RHP
Justin Berg, RHP
Todd Blackford, RHP
Edward Campusano, LHP 
Russ Canzler, 1B
Yusuf Carter, OF 
Rafael Dolis, RHP
Jesse Estrada, RHP 
Ryan Harvey, OF
Jim Henderson, RHP
Mark Holliman, RHP
> Grant Johnson, RHP
Marcos Mateo, RHP
J. R. Mathes, LHP
Mario Mercedes, C
Jonathan Mota, INF
Jake Muyco, RHP
Vince Perkins, RHP
Jose Pina, RHP
Mark Reed, C
Gregory Reinhard, RHP
Kyle Reynolds, 1B
Tony Richie, C
Chris Robinson, C
Jayson Ruhlman, LHP
Alvaro Sosa, C
Nate Spears, 2B
Donald Veal, LHP
NOTE: A player on this list is not eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if added to the 40-man roster by November 20th. Also, any free-agent who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft. In addition, a club can designate any player who is not otherwise eligible for the Rule 5 Draft as available if the club so chooses, although this rarely happens. Probably a club would do this only if it was planning to release the player after the draft. For example, it's possible that the Cubs will choose to make Peoria RHP Julio Castillo (indicted for felonious assault with a deadly weapon after throwing a baseball at a fan in Dayton this past season) available for selection in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft  even though Castillo otherwise isn't eligible for the Rule 5 for the first time until after next season, since the Cubs do not have a minor league club in the Ohio State Prison League (at this time).

=====================================

2009: 

MINOR LEAGUE OPTION STATUS FOR PLAYERS WITH LESS THAN FIVE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME (SPRING TRAINING 2009):

NOTE: Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before being optioned to the minors during Spring Training 2009 or anytime during the 2009 season. Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, and Jose Ascanio would NOT have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before being optioned to the minors during Spring Training (prior to Opening Day), but Marshall would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before being optioned to the minors anytime during the regular season (starting on Opening Day), Marmol would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers beginning on June 4th, and Ascanio would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers beginning on July 13th. (Because an Optional Assignment waiver request can be withdrawn if the player is claimed by another club, Optional Assignment waiver claims are rare).  

NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Ronny Cedeno (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors) 
Neal Cotts (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
Chad Gaudin (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
Angel Guzman
Koyie Hill (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
Rich Hill
Felix Pie
Brad Snyder
Geovany Soto
Michael Wuertz
(can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
NOTE: Players who are out of minor league options must clear Outright Assignment Waivers (which are irrevocable) before they can be sent to the minors. Players with at least three years of MLB Service Time and players who have been previously outrighted in their career can refuse an Outright Assignment and can opt to become a free-agent instead. (Free-agency option can be exercised immediately, or player can defer option until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season). 

ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT:
Jose Ascanio (see NOTE)
Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox 
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall
NOTE
: Jose Ascanio has used three minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he has spent only four “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option in 2009 as long as it is exercised prior to completing five full seasons. 

TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT
Sam Fuld
Kevin Hart
Micah Hoffpauir
Billy Petrick
(see NOTE)
Carmen Pignatiello
Jeff Samardzija
(see NOTE)
Ryan Theriot
NOTE: Billy Petrick has used two minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he has spent only three “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is exercised prior to completing five full seasons.
Jeff Samardzija has used two minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he has spent only two “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is exercised prior to completing five full seasons. 

THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Casey McGehee
Randy Wells
(can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)

FOUR MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Kosuke Fukudome 

======================================

PROJECTED 2009 CUBS ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH CHART

* bats or throws left
# bats both

CATCHERS:
CUBS: Geovany Soto/Henry Blanco/# Koyie Hill 
IOWA: Tony Richie/* Blake Lalli/Chris Robinson 
TENN: Welington Castillo/* Mark Reed
DAYT: Luis Flores/Mario Mercedes
PEOR: Carlos Perez/Michael Brenly  
EXST: * Matt Cerda/# Alvaro Sosa/Jose Guevara/Pat Mahoney/Juan Medina 
DSLC: Carlos Gonzalez/Ricardo Parra/Jose Vigay/Yamel Liria  

FIRST-BASEMEN:
CUBS: Derrek Lee/* Micah Hoffpauir
IOWA: * Kyle Reynolds      
TENN: Russ Canzler/* Steve Clevenger 
DAYT: Jovan Rosa/Luis Bautista    
PEOR: Rebel Ridling/* Ryan Keedy      
EXST: Sean Hoorelbeke/* Bryan Jost   
DSLC: # Alexander Mejia/Melvin Camarena/Carlos Romero/Justino Guzman

SECOND-BASEMEN:
CUBS: Mark DeRosa/* Mike Fontenot 
IOWA: * Nate Spears   
TENN: Tony Thomas     
DAYT: * Ryan Flaherty/Josh Harrison      
PEOR: * Jake Opitz/Gian Guzman  
EXST: * Logan Watkins/Dwayne Kemp   
DSLC: # Ramon Bonilla/# Vismeldy Bieneme/# Jose Montecino

THIRD-BASEMEN:
CUBS: Aramis Ramirez 
IOWA: Casey McGehee   
TENN: Josh Lansford 
DAYT: Marquez Smith
PEOR: Josh Vitters
EXST: John Contreras/Carlos Morales     
DSLC: # Nelson Pierre/Juan Pena/Pedro Ramirez

SHORTSTOPS:
CUBS: Ryan Theriot/Ronny Cedeno  
IOWA: * Matt Camp/# Matt Matulia 
TENN: Darwin Barney/Jonathan Mota  
DAYT: Nathan Samson/Jose Made
PEOR: Starlin Castro/# Marwin Gonzalez
EXST: Junior Lake/George Matheus/* Hak-Ju Lee     
DSLC: # Robert Bautista/* Melido Perez/Miguel Salazar 

LEFT-FIELDERS:
CUBS: Alfonso Soriano/* Brad Snyder   
IOWA: * Tyler Colvin  
TENN: Ty Wright
DAYT: Brandon Guyer  
PEOR: * Drew Rundle 
EXST: * Ryan Sontag/TeWayne Willis/* Sean Williams
DSLC: Jesus Morelli/# Jose Valdez/Albert Hernandez/# Gregorio Robles

CENTER-FIELDERS
CUBS: * Felix Pie/Reed Johnson
IOWA: * Sam Fuld 
TENN: * Jonathan Wyatt/Yusuf Carter  
DAYT: * Tony Campana    
PEOR: * Cliff Andersen 
EXST: * Kurt Calvert/# David Macias/* Clark Hardman   
DSLC: * Francisco Guzman/Manuel Pestana/Pedro Medina

RIGHT-FIELDERS
CUBS: * Kosuke Fukudome
IOWA: Jake Fox 
TENN: * James Adduci/Ryan Harvey
DAYT: * Dylan Johnston   
PEOR: * Kyler Burke/Jericho Jones   
EXST: * Nelson Perez/Kevin Soto  
DSLC: Alejandro Damian/Luis Andrades

STARTING PITCHERS

CUBS:
Carlos Zambrano
* Ted Lilly
Rich Harden
* Sean Marshall
Jason Marquis
* Rich Hill

IOWA:
Mitch Atkins
Randy Wells
* J. R. Mathes
* Donald Veal
Justin Berg

TENNESSEE:
Esmailin Caridad
* James Russell
Billy Muldowney
* Jeremy Papelbon
Marco Carrillo
Alessandro Maestri

DAYTONA:
Hung-Wen Chen
Jay Jackson
Casey Coleman
Aaron Shafer
Robert Hernandez
Alberto Alburquerque

PEORIA:
Chris Carpenter
* Jeffrey Beliveau
Josh Whitlock
Ryan Searle
Kevin Kreier
Ryan Acosta
Justin Bristow
Dae-Eun Rhee

EXST:
Larry Suarez
Alberto Cabrera
Chris Huseby
Oswaldo Martinez
* Jeffry Antigua
Julio Pena
Yohan Gonzalez
Miguel Sierra
Dionis Nunez
Diego Encarnacion

DSLC:
Edilmar Infante
Hector Mayorga
* Marcos Perez
Roderick Pichardo
Ramon Reyes
Luis Liria
Eduardo Figueroa
Ramon Garcia
Jose Tineo
Starlin Peralta

BULLPEN:

CUBS:
Carlos Marmol (closer)
Jeff Samardzija
Chad Gaudin
* Neal Cotts
Michael Wuertz
Kevin Hart
Angel Guzman

IOWA:
Jose Ceda (closer)
Rocky Roquet
Jose Ascanio
* Casey Lambert
Gregory Reinhard 
Jesse Estrada
Mark Holliman
* Carmen Pignatiello
Billy Petrick
Jim Henderson

TENNESSEE:
Brian Schlitter (closer)
Matt Avery
* Edward Campusano
Marcos Mateo
* Jayson Ruhlman
Jordan Latham
Blake Parker
Grant Johnson
Vince Perkins

DAYTONA: 
Andrew Cashner (closer)
Steve Vento
* Dustin Sasser
Michael Cooper
John Muller
* Zach Ashwood
Jake Muyco
Todd Blackford
* Chris Siegfried
Craig Muschko
Jose Pina
Jon Mueller

PEORIA:
Dan McDaniel (closer)
David Cales
* James Leverton
Audy Santana
* Luke Sommer
Cedric Redmond
* Mark Pawelek 
Erik Hamren
Harol Tolentino
Bubba O’Donnell
Mike Perconte
Tommy Mejia
Marcus Hatley

EXST:
Manolin DeLeon (closer)
Rafael Dolis
Tarlandus Mitchell
Kitt Kopach
* Leon Johnson
Toby Matchulat
Eric Allen
Carlos Rojas
Andres Quezada
* Cody Hams
Adam Spencer
Miguel Corletto
Jon Nagel

====================================

POST-2009

ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENT AFTER 2009 SEASON:
Henry Blanco (if 2009 club option is exercised)
Mark DeRosa
Reed Johnson
Rich Harden
Jason Marquis

=======================================

PLAYERS SIGNED BEYOND 2009
Derrek Lee ($13M in 2010, then FA – has full “no trade”)
Ted Lilly ($12M in 2010, then FA – has full “no trade”)
Aramis Ramirez ($15.75M in 2010, $14.6M 2011 player option, and $16M 2012 mutual option with $2M buy-out – has full “no trade”)
Kosuke Fukudome ($13M in 2010 and $13.5M in 2011 – has full “no trade”)
Jeff Samardzija ($2.5M in 2010: $2.8M in 2011, $3M mutual option in 2012 - player can opt out only if he is eligible for salary arbitration, and $3.5M mutual option in 2013 - player can opt out only if he is eligible for salary-arbitration)
NOTE: Samardzija must accrue six years of MLB Service Time before he can be a Free-Agent
Carlos Zambrano ($17.875 in 2010 and 2011, and $18M in 2012, plus $19.25M vesting-player option  in 2013 – has full “no trade”) 
Alfonso Soriano ($18M 2010 through 2014, then FA – has full “no trade”)

=====================================

PROJECTED ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY ARBITRATION POST-2009:
Ronny Cedeno
Neal Cotts
Mike Fontenot (would be eligible to possibly qualify as “Super Two”)
Chad Gaudin
Angel Guzman
Koyie Hill
Rich Hill
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall 
Felix Pie
(would be eligible to possibly qualify as a "Super Two")
Geovany Soto (would be eligible to possibly qualify as "Super Two")
Ryan Theriot
Michael Wuertz
NOTE:
Cedeno, Cotts, Gaudin, Guzman, K. Hill, R. Hill, and Wuertz will definitely be eligible for salary arbitration post-2009, but in order for Fontenot, Marmol, Marshall, and/or Theriot to be eligible, player would have to spend part, most, or all of 2009 season (depending on player) on MLB 25-man roster (or 15-day or 60-day DL), and Fontenot, Pie, and Soto would only be eligible if player qualifies for arbitration as a "Super Two" (TBD).   

====================================

MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT POST-2009:
Edward Campusano
, LHP
Danny Fatheree, C
Ryan Harvey, OF
Jim Henderson, RHP
Jose Pina, RHP
Tony Richie, C
Nate Spears
, 2B

=============================

POST-2009 FIRST TIME ELIGIBLE FOR RULE 5 DRAFT:
Francisco Acosta
, RHP
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Matt Camp, IF-OF
Marco Carrillo, RHP
Julio Castillo, RHP
Welington Castillo, C 
Jose Ceda, RHP
Steve Clevenger, C-1B
Tyler Colvin, OF
Michael Cooper, RHP
Arturo Florentino, RHP
Robert Hernandez, RHP
Edilmar Infante, RHP
Dylan Johnston, OF
Kitt Kopach, RHP
Blake Lalli, C-1B
Josh Lansford, RHP (ex-3B)
Alessandro Maestri, RHP
Matt Matulia, INF
Jon Mueller, RHP
Billy Muldowney
, RHP
Dionis Nunez
, RHP
Jeremy Papelbon, LHP
Blake Parker, RHP
Mark Pawelek, LHP
Carlos Perez, C
Andres Quezada
, RHP
Rocky Roquet, RHP
Tomas Sanchez, RHP
Audy Santana, RHP
Miguel Sierra, RHP
Harol Tolentino, RHP

Comments

Holy Cow. Arizona Phil, you must be the workhorse of this blog. Thanks. 2 questions: 1. What do you see the Cubs doing with Rich Hill? With no options left it seems like they either have to put him on the DL to in order to send him to the minors and get his stuff worked out or they have to risk carrying him on the 25 and just hope for a rebound. 2. Do you see guys like Jake Fox, Casey McGehee, Sam Fuld, and Brad Snyder (who the heck is Brad Snyder?) dropped from the 40-man in order to make room for Rule 5 eligible guys like Mitch Atkins and Donald Veal?

I'll update the TCR 40-man page with the new option info...I'm gonna bug you about some service time questions as well, if you don't mind. Great work as always...

Ben Sheets doesn't think he'll be back with Milwaukee, Ryan Braun said something that CC really liked Milwaukee and might consider signing with them for less years but not necessarily less money per year.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/1205705,CST-SPT-csep07.art… ''The boom-and-bust cycle's over,'' Cubs CEO Crane Kenney said, even before the Los Angeles Dodgers finished sweeping the Cubs out of the playoffs. ''I mean, that whole 'get in in '98, drought until '03' -- that should be over.'' and Hendry's aggressive redirection has been paired with a renewed financial push by ownership. This year's payroll was a franchise-record $130 million, up more than $20 million from 2007. And Kenney anticipates another bump going into next season, even with the uncertainty of an ownership transition that could occur by spring training. An increase in revenues and projected revenues -- from additional ballpark advertising and other sources -- are part of the reason for that, Kenney said. thanks to 10man for the link from the previous thread...

Submitted by Charlie on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 9:56am.

Holy Cow. Arizona Phil, you must be the workhorse of this blog. Thanks.

2 questions:

1. What do you see the Cubs doing with Rich Hill? With no options left it seems like they either have to put him on the DL to in order to send him to the minors and get his stuff worked out or they have to risk carrying him on the 25 and just hope for a rebound.

2. Do you see guys like Jake Fox, Casey McGehee, Sam Fuld, and Brad Snyder (who the heck is Brad Snyder?) dropped from the 40-man in order to make room for Rule 5 eligible guys like Mitch Atkins and Donald Veal?

==================================

CHARLIE: I suspect the Cubs will hang onto Rich Hill into Spring Training 2009, and hope that he can revert to his 2007 form. If it doesn't look like he has regained his 2007 form in ST, and because he is out of minor league options, the Cubs will have to either outright him to the minors or trade him. Since he would probably get claimed off outright waivers, the Cubs will probably trade him rather than risk losing him for $20K.

As for Hill's most-likely destination if he gets traded, I would say probably Baltimore (Hill's minor league pitching coach guru Alan Dunn is an Orioles coach). It will be interesting to see if the Orioles sign Michael Barrett, who was Hill's favorite catcher and best friend when both were with the Cubs.

The Cubs really don't need to outright any players right now. They can just wait until the seven Article XX free-agents file for free-agency after the World Series and use those five slots (two of the seven free-agents are on the 60-day DL so only five slots on the 40-man roster will be available) to add the two or three minor leaguers (RHP Mitch Atkins, LHP Donald Veal, and 2B Nate Spears) they will probably want to add to the 40-man roster on 11/20. I guess RHPs Justin Berg, Jesse Estrada and Gregory Reinhard and LHP J. R. Mathes are other possible candidates to get added to the 40 next month, but I would say they are long-shots.

I suspect the Cubs will try and re-sign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood and so they will keep roster slots open for them, but I doubt that Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bob Howry, Jon Lieber, or Daryle Ward will return in 2009, so the Cubs should have three slots available on their 40-man roster for Atkins, Veal, and Spears on 11/20.

The Cubs will probably decline their 2009 $3M club option ($300K buy-out) on Henry Blanco, but then they will also probably try and re-sign him for less money (probably around $1.2M, with performance bonuses in case Soto gets hurt and Blanco ends up playing more than would be anticipated).

As for who the Cubs would be likely to outright prior to 11/20 or non-tender on 12/12 in case they need additional space on the 40-man roster during off-season, I would say LHP Carmen Pignatiello would be the most-likely candidate. I don't think the Cubs would want to outright Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, Brad Snyder, Casey McGehee, or Koyie Hill until they see where they stand at the end of Spring Training.

As for Brad Snyder, the Cubs claimed him off Outright Waivers from the Cleveland Indians last month. Snyder was the Indians 1st round draft pick in 2003 out of Ball State, and was a Baseball America Top Ten Indians Prospect four years running (2004-07) and was also a BA MLB Top 100 Prospect in 2005-06. Snyder has plus-power, plus-speed, and a plus-arm, but he also strikes out a TON, which is why he struggled at AAA in 2007 and 2008.

Because he is out of minor league options, claiming Snyder off outright waivers is essentially like getting a Rule 5 pick for $20K (Rule 5 picks cost $50K). I suspect Cubs scouts probably saw a lot of Snyder and liked him back in 2002 when they were scouting teammate Luke Hagerty at Ball State, and maybe the Cubs figure Snyder might benefit from a change in organization.

Snyder will give Felix Pie and Kosuke Fukudome some competition in Spring Training and will provide outfield depth, but unless somebody gets hurt, I believe the Cubs will probably try to get him through Outright Assignment Waivers and send him to Iowa prior to Opening Day. (Both Snyder and Felix Pie are out of minor league options).

Submitted by Rob G. on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 11:05am.

AZ Phil has it as club option, the cubs.com article and Cot's has it as a mutual option.

==========================

ROB G: It was originally a mutual option for 2009, but Blanco failed to meet the minimum number of ABs required to make the player option portion of the mutual option kick-in. So now it's just a $3M club option with a $300K buy-out.

THANKS AGAIN AZ PHIL! Do you think its sink or swim finally for Angel Guzman? He had one nice inning, in a September call-up game I was at, then of course, Lou used him in the next inning and got toasted. Will he be kept on the 40man after Spring Training, in your opinion? Traded? Released?

It will be intersting to see if Rich Harden will demand a trade if the Cubs exercise their $7M club option for 2009.

Because he signed a multi-year deal under the previous CBA, and because he had accrued 5+ years of MLB Service Time at the time he was traded, Harden has the arcane right to demand a trade during the free-agency filing period that immediately follows the season he gets traded. (If the Cubs had acquired Harden just two days earlier, he would have fallen short of five years of MLB ST and he would not have the right to demand a trade), 

But if the Cubs don't exercise their club option, then Harden can't demand a trade, and instead he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. (Harden will be a free-agent after the 2009 season).

But if the Cubs do exercise their club option, Harden could demand a contract extention, and if the Cubs don't want to give him one, he can demand a trade, and then the Cubs either have to trade him by March 15th or else he can become a free-agent on 3/15 (player option). And if he does become a FA under those circumstances, the Cubs get no draft picks as compensation for losing him.

If Harden does demand a trade, he can list up to six MLB clubs to which he can refuse a trade, and he can rescind the request at any time prior to being traded, and he doesn't even have to become a FA if he doesn't get traded by March 15th. It's strictly a player option.

But if he does demand a trade under Article XX and then gets traded, he can't be a free-agent for three seasons (post-2011), delaying his free-agency by two years (although he would be eligible for salary arbitration post-2009 and post-2010).

To put maximum pressure on the Cubs, Harden will certainly wait until the Cubs exercise their club option before deciding whether to demand a trade, and then it will be too late for the Cubs to decline their 2009 $7M club option and offer arbitration instead. And if the Cubs do exercise their club option and then Harden demands a trade, what will the Cubs do?

Would it be better for the Cubs to just decline the club option and go the salary arbitration route, even if Harden will likley make more than $7M in arbitration? Because I can't see the Cubs giving Harden a multi-year contract. Not with that cranky shoulder.

Or would it be better for the Cubs to go ahead and exercise their club option, hoping that Harden won't demand a trade because if he does and then gets traded, it would delay his free-agency by two seasons (although he would be eligible for salary arbitration after 2009 and 2010)?

[ ]

In reply to by Arizona Phil

Would Rich Harden really get significantly more than $7 million through arbitration? Sure, he was great this year, but in 2006 and 2007 he had a combined total of only 13 major league starts and 16 total major league appearances. Does that get factored in during arbitration? Also, I wonder whether the Cubs will offer arbitration to Howry (I don't think they're going to try to sign him back). He's a type B free agent, I believe. Offering him arbitration combined with his bad year might be enough to scare anyone else away from signing him and get the Cubs stuck with him for whatever the arbiters think he's worth.

[ ]

In reply to by Arizona Phil

Wouldnt the prudent thing to do be to decline the option and do a 2-year deal with him where he makes 7 mil in 09 and a base salary of 7 million in 10 with a 500k Incentive for every 50 IP and a 100K incentive for every start in 09. That way Harden gets some guarnteed money for 10 if he falls apart and if in 09 he pitches like the ace he can be he gets paid in the neighborhood of one in 2010, as if he were to make 30 starts and throw 200 innings next season he would make 12 million in 2010. He would still be only 28 he when he hits free agency and if he can show he is not an injury risk he stands to collect a 200 million deal. From the Cubs POV if you go into arbitation with Harden you can bet the 12 million a year that Burnett got would be the number Harden will likely due to the simlarity between the two. So in the worst case scenerio with Harden you only spend 2 million extra on him and in the best case you only spend 7 million extra for a flat out stud. It sounds like a win-win scenerio to me.

Submitted by The E-Man on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 11:58am.

THANKS AGAIN AZ PHIL!

Do you think its sink or swim finally for Angel Guzman? He had one nice inning, in a September call-up game I was at, then of course, Lou used him in the next inning and got toasted.

Will he be kept on the 40man after Spring Training, in your opinion? Traded? Released?

===========================

E-MAN: Unless he has some type of medical setback, I would expect Angel Guzman to be in the Cubs bullpen on Opening Day 2009. 

If he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, they will probably trade him. He's out of minor league options, so I doubt that the Cubs will take a chance on losing him off Outright Waivers. 

Submitted by Raisin101 on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:40pm.

Thanks, AZ Phil.

Do you really think Veal can stay a starter? I can't imagine that's likely.

Also, I'm surprised to see you think Maestri will stay a starter and that Kreier will return to Peoria.

==========================

RAISIN: I believe Veal will remain a starter until he reaches MLB, and then he'll be a reliever. He throws too many pitches-per-inning to be a rotation starter in the big leagues, but right now he needs to get innings under his belt. Same goes for Maestri, although Maestri might get moved back to the bullpen when he hits Iowa.

I think Kevin Kreier will return to Peoria in 2009 (at least at the start of the season), mainly because there are other guys ahead of him who are more advanced, and because there are several college pitchers the Cubs drafted this past June (Jackson, Coleman, Shafer, Carpenter, and Beliveau) who have better stuff than Kreier has right now.

Kreier throws a marginal 86-88 MPH straight fastball, a decent change-up, and an OK breaking ball, and he has a good head for pitching. But he really needs to develop a cutter, because his fastball (as is) just isn't very impressive.

Great summary Phil - Would love to hear your thoughts on what they will do with Rich Hill. Also, your org depth chart is wonderful. What positions do you think we are deepest at and what show a lack of promise. It appears we are fairly stocked at catcher (Soto, Castillo, Lalli), 2B (Thomas), LF (Colvin) and Power arms (Ceda, Cashner)but very weak at 1B, SS, RF and SP. Give me your thoughts.

Stone believes Cubs will try to trade Dlee. Feels team not "jelling" in the way they should and Dlee is on decline.

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In reply to by jacos

Well we know Stone was not watching the Cubs this October as he showed he can still hit. If you trade Lee and dont replace by paying Texiera you also lose value on Aram and Theriot as they will become liabilties in the field. I think one of the big bats will be the subject of some Hot Stove Talk, but I doubt its Lee and its more likely to be Soriano. I think Soriano for Beltran will be this winter's version of Cedeno, Gallagher, Epat, Murton for Brian Roberts.

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In reply to by big_lowitzki

Gotta go with El Duderino, here. That would be a huge mistake on the part of the Mets and an amazing move for the Cubs. Cubs suddenly get an answer in CF, can sign Ibanez to play LF and they've got a terrifying lineup and no loss defensively. The Mets on the other hand get a sort of solution in LF and do what to fill CF? Minaya would have to go into hiding. Beltran is by far more valuable than Soriano. I can certainly see why you'd want this to happen though. I mean, say the Cubs manage to sign Ibanez and trade for Roberts while they are at it. Roberts Lee Beltran Ramirez Ibanez Soto DeRosa Theriot Zambrano Isn't fantasy baseball fun?

http://www.sacbee.com/100/story/1248904.html Matt Cain for JJ Hardy AND Prince Fielder I tend to doubt this as Fielder is too much to give up for Cain and adding Hardy makes it overkill for the Brewers to give up. If the Giants added Brian Wilson to the deal I think it would be a good deal for both clubs. Mat Gamel should be able to match Hardy's production and Yulides Escobar can do better than what Milwaukee's 3B did last year. With Wilson in the fold you you can spend Gagne's 10 million and some of the savings on losing Sheets to go out and get Dunn to play 1B.

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In reply to by Chad

OK. I'm not sure what Ryan Braun being better has to do with anything, but: I would argue Fielder isn't completely one-dimensional. He's pretty damn good at taking a walk and has a career OBP of .370 in the majors. Also, even though his 3+ seasons in the majors began at the age of 21 (he's now 24), he's a career .278 hitter that has never batted lower than .271 in the majors. At his young age there seems to be reason to expect improvement. He's not much of a defender nor does he run the bases particularly well, but he's a multi-faceted hitter. By the way: Ryan Braun had a bigger edge on him if you thought he was going to be an adequate defender at 3rd, but he's pretty entrenched in LF now. In 2008 Braun posted an OPS of .888 while Fielder posted .903. Factor in Braun's base stealing skills and it looks like a dead heat between two players who are basically the same age (actually, Braun is a few months older). I guess from a value perspective, Braun has less service time. Oh, and Fielder is really fat, which is a legitimate concern for a GM.

[ ]

In reply to by Chad

Prince Fielder in 2008: 19 IBB Ryan Braun in 2008: 4 IBB You've got that one, definitely. Those walks do quite a bit to inflate Fielder's OBP. Of course, having Fielder behind him may help Braun to receive fewer IBB walks and get more pitches to hit, but that's a complex argument, so we'll move on. Braun had 39 doubles to Fielder's 30, 37 HRs to Fielder's 34, 7 3Bs to Fielder's 2, and 174 hits to Fielder's 162. I also have to show that I made a mistake in my previous comment: Fielder's 2008 OPS was .879, not the .903 I posted (his career OPS). Regardless of issues of lineup position and "protection," it's clear that Braun had the better 2008 and that it was pretty much a dead heat in 2009 (offensively). Who is the better player is probably still up for debate--maybe more so who will be the better player in coming years. But I still think that giving the Giants JJ Hardy and Fielder for Cain and Wilson would be to overpay drastically. edit: And no biggy about hallucinating the "best player." I now understand how this came up. edit 2: Oh, and I'm curious: what stats do you favor, Chad? OPS is out, looks like OBP too. If you're not a fan of stats that favor homeruns, then I would think slugging % would be out as well. Average? Runs? RBI?

AZ Phil rules. Phil-- which do you think is more likely: 1. Re-signing Dempster 2. Re-signing Wood 3. Both 4. Neither And, just for fun, what kind of year does Fukudome have next season? thanks for all your work, Phil. ROMERO

last year because there were no left-handed top of the order guys on the open market. This year there are a couple, so I really don't expect the Roberts rumors to resurface. The Cubs will likely concentrate any extra FA money on one, maybe two left-handed bats. That means... Mark Teixeira Adam Dunn Rafael Furcal Orlando Hudson Milton Bradley Bobby Abreu Raul Ibanez Garret Anderson Ken Griffey Jr. Jim Edmonds My guess is the pitching looks pretty similar. Dempster, Z, Harden, Lilly, Marquis a stable of Marshall, Samardzija, Wells, Gaudin, M. Atkins, R. Hill, Angel Guzman, and maybe a FA vet waiting in the wings. Pen of Wood, Marmol, one FA signing, then some assortment of the guys above along with Cotts, Wuertz, Hart, etc...

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

Ascanio could come around and really contribute to the bullpen as well. But I don't expect the Cubs to be involved in the Teixera bidding. Trying to sign Teixera before trading Lee would be very difficult and risk. Trying to trade Lee before signing Teixera would be extremely risky. Trading Lee while getting equal value in return would be very difficult in and of itself.

[ ]

In reply to by Charlie

Ascanio could come around and really contribute to the bullpen as well.

like I said: Cotts, Wuertz, Hart, etc...

as for signing Teixeira, here's what I wrote in the previous thread:

----------

Submitted by Rob G. on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 1:51pm.

the problem and why the chances of this happening are somwhere between 0 and 0.5% are that to pull it off, you need to sign Teixeira first because you can't trade Lee away and then hope Teixeira agrees to sign. So if you do sign Teixeira, you then are banking on finding another team to make a deal, assuming they take the contract or most of it and that Lee will agree to all of it.

 

Our best and most likely option is Milton Bradley on a 1 or 2 yr deal (preferably 1 yr). - He bats Left handed in the middle of the lineup. - Can play CF or RF (in the event Fuku can't recover) - He can be had for a ST deal in the event Pie and/or Fuku can recover. - We'd only need him for 80-100 games (which is all he is good for) since we have Sori Fuku, Pie, Reed Johnson and DeRo who can all man the OF. - Is realistic since they can't trade most of our players (no trade clauses) and shouldn't blow the team up (we won 97 games).

AZ-Phil, did I read that correctly: That Fukudome has 4 minor league options? Because if he starts next year like he finished this one, it seems like Iowa could be a serious possibility to work out his swing. If we sign a LH bat for RF, how good a CF is Fuku?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-cubs-marmolinjured&prov=ap&typ… minor injuries for marmol in a car accident... ------- Marmol said in an e-mail to The Associated Press that the air bag deployed and he only suffered a cut and an “inflammation” of his forehead. “Out of precaution they did different studies on my body, and I don’t have any kind of serious injury,” he wrote. -------

[ ]

In reply to by crunch

I dunno... Spine-related problems (back and neck) often are not apparent immediately after an auto accident and can first show up days or weeks afterwards -- and sometimes become long-term, chronic conditions. (Can you back me up on this one, Dr. Hecht?) With his twisting, slinging pitching motion, I'd hate to have a back injury thrown into the mix. My first thought was of Roberto Clemente, who was involved in an auto accident in Puerto Rico early in his career and suffered from back and neck problems thereafter. Really affected his performance adversely for the first four years following the accident (and continued to bother him thereafter, though obviously not enough to derail his wonderful career). Hopefully this is the last we ever hear of any problems related to this.

yup http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/10/h… The Cubs began spacing out his starts following his next outing, resulting in only two regular season starts after Sept. 11th, including a five-inning, 115-pitch start against Milwaukee on Sept. 18th. If Harden has to undergo some arthroscopic surgery to clean out the shoulder, he could return by early May. If the Cubs knew he'd be ready by then, they'd likely pick up the option. In a more unlikely scenario, they could also decline the option and make Harden arbitration-eligible, in which case he could make even more than $7 million, based on his career numbers (41-20, 3.23 earned-run average) and today's inflated salaries for starting pitchers. Either way, Harden is the Cubs property in '09. I'm shocked to learn Paul Sullivan doesn't read TCR.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

If Harden has to undergo some arthroscopic surgery to clean out the shoulder, he could return by early May. -------------- Absurdly speculative. While he's at it, Sully would be more practical to suggest Harden change his jersey to #22. 1) did he throw a dart at a calendar to come up with May? 2) clean out? c'mon, cut the bs...can't he do better than that? Why not speculate on the entire encyclopedia of shoulder injuries/surgeries? It's a theme I've gone over so many times...I'd say any estimate would be more useful if there is a diagnosis, and the results of a diagnostic workup if any was done. Haven't heard anything other than Harden had a cortisone shot at the end of August. They didn't report a diagnosis that led to that treatment back then either (they didn't report the cortisone shot until a few weeks after it was given). Certainly we haven't heard about an MRI or arthrogram, or even why one wasn't done. Nice if he would do some timely and factual reporting. Is it the Cubs again being non-transparent? Harden does have the right to privacy but if they don't want to disclose info, just say so. I hate this sloppy info speculation stuff.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

i still dont get the maurer AL MVP talk...i understand the thinking, but i don't know why the conclusion doesn't make them bust out laughing at the result.

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

no, i find nothing much extraordinary about what he's done. the guy played top tier D...no argument there at all. moving on... 536 ab, 176 hits, 31 doubles, 4 triples, 9 homers, 98 runs, 85 rbi, 1sb, .413 ob%, .451 slugging...hitting 3rd. hey, i believe D is important, but not THAT important. solid batting is nice, but maurer's done nothing special there, imo. this is the MVP award. -edit- i meant to put in the ob%/slugging in there on the first go around and just added it. sorry...that stinks of cherry picking stats if not corrected to show the guy has a strength in drawing walks.

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In reply to by crunch

it's not just his defense, it's that he provides incredibly more offense than any other catcher in the AL.

average AL catcher: 258/322/393 - 715 OPS

Mauer: 328/413/451 - 864 OPS

149 OPS difference

I don't feel like looking through all the other candidates but I'm guessing only Hamilton at center field gave his team that much of an advantage, but his defense wasn't as good or as valuable plus the ballpark.

For the saber-minded folks, Mauer leads in WARP3

Mauer - 11.8 , Pedroia - 10.4, Arod 10.1, Sizemore - 9.7, Hamilton 9.4, Youklis - 9.3

Halladay at 10.1 and Lee at 10.6

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

yeah, but he's not taking on every other catcher...he's taking on everyone. hell, i'd take pedroia over him. i'm even leaving out the "will of the voters" in this and just taking it by what i'd consider a MVP candidate.

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In reply to by crunch

he's not taking on anyone, he's being more valuable than any other player in the AL. When your the best player at your position in the league, that means the other players on your team don't have to outpace their peers as much.

It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league.

 

[ ]

In reply to by crunch

Ugh. That is not AT ALL what Rob said. The true comparison, instead of your straw man of DLee as MVP, would be Soto has NL MVP. Soto has been at least mentioned in mvp talks not because he is one of the best players in the NL, but because, as a catcher, he brings so much more value than someone with the same numbers at first base, or really any other position. The exact same thing can be said abut Mauer.

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In reply to by big_lowitzki

you're missing the point of what i was trying to say there. when i think MVP i don't care how few catchers played as well as maurer...especially when he puts up numbers like that in the #3 slot of a lineup. i don't put as much of maurer's value on the fact vmart and posada sucked this year. i don't care how many crappy catchers out there are diluting the pool of other catchers. his positional value is great, but i don't put that much value on it. hell, if i had to pick an AL position-scarcity type i'd go for the 2nd baseman for BOS over the catcher from MIN for MVP.

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In reply to by crunch

you're missing the point of what i was trying to say there. Maybe... but your comment above clearly missed Rob's point, or you would have never compared the situation to Lee winning the MVP. if i had to pick an AL position-scarcity type i'd go for the 2nd baseman for BOS over the catcher from MIN for MVP. AL second basemen: Pedroia, Kinsler, Roberts, Iwamura, Ramirez, etc. Not exactly a scarcity of talent there. AL catchers: Mauer and .... ???

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In reply to by big_lowitzki

i wasn't even attempting to link DLee to the MVP. "It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league." i was mostly responding to that attempting to say what makes dlee a good fit for the cubs has little to do with the mvp. maybe if mauer brought more with his bat i'd be more impressed. and i covered the 2nd part of your comment already and how i handicap it into my personal belief on the mvp.

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In reply to by crunch

i wasn't even attempting to link DLee to the MVP. Huh? Lets review what you said: what makes dlee a decent fit for the cubs doesnt make dlee a mvp candidate in the NL Yup... no link at all. Oh wait...

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In reply to by crunch

your point about Posada and VMart are certainly a valid concern, but even with them catchers would likely be the lightest hitting position in the league, although the disparity might not be quite as big. Actually VMart in 2007 (879) and Shoppach in 2008(865) had nearly identical OPS numbers.

 

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In reply to by big_lowitzki

Soto has been at least mentioned in mvp talks not because he is one of the best players in the NL, but because, as a catcher, he brings so much more value than someone with the same numbers at first base, or really any other position. The exact same thing can be said abut Mauer.

just to split hairs, but Soto is mentioned in MVP talks because he was one of the best players in the NL. I mean, I don't want to someone winning the MVP because who wasn't the best player or one of the best players. The reason he's one of the best is because of the value he brings at the position though.

I'm sure that is what you meant...

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In reply to by crunch

what makes dlee a decent fit for the cubs doesnt make dlee a mvp candidate in the NL

holy shit, where did you get that from what I said? maybe you meant what makes Derrek Lee a decent fit for the Cubs doesn't make Geovany Soto or Mark DeRosa the MVP, but I'd argue that Soto/DeRosa were probably one and two for Cubs MVP, although a little short for the NL MVP. 

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In reply to by Rob G.

i was trying to say i don't see the 2 as related. i put a very different value on the things DLee does for the team vs. what maurer does for the AL vs. his peers. i don't see a relation between the things i argued for earlier about DLee's value to team construction being a huge part of how i'd handicap MVP voting. ...and it's my reply to "It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league."

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In reply to by crunch

yeah, I get what you replied to and I guess I worded it a little poorly, but how you ever extracted that I was saying something about Derrek Lee for MVP is well..um, interesting.

But I assume you've gotten the point by now that if you're gonna argue that you can live with Derrek Lee's bat at first base (which was essentially league average) because of the offensive production we've gotten from Soto and DeRosa and the CF platoon, it's the same reason that makes Joe Mauer one of the most valuable players in the AL. Getting such a huge advantage at one position (doesn't matter what position) allows a team to have lesser players at other spots around the diamond.

obviously you have a different opinion on what an MVP is, but it really is pretty much the exact same argument...

[ ]

In reply to by Rob G.

i never said you said anything about dlee for mvp. "It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league." THAT...is where my reply came from. 1- it's not my argument if you want to link those 2 situations 2- assuming it is my argument, my reply would be "what makes dlee a decent fit for the cubs doesnt make dlee a mvp candidate in the NL" i'm saying the 2 situations are so unrelated to me that i wouldn't connect them together. i've also said as an aside that i don't even remotely buy into mauer being a MVP candidate because his peers at his position suck compared to him. that stuff might matter at contract time and it is a slight consideration for mvp voting, but i think it's not THAT important when you stack his good, but unspectacular bat vs. guys who produced a lot more with their bats. maurer hit 3rd most of his time and put up some pretty average numbers for a #3 hitter...singles and walks, aside.

[ ]

In reply to by crunch

it's amazing that you can't see the correlation between the two situations...so be it.

it's not like it was just a down year for catcher's, they're historically the lowest on the totem pole just about every year.

as for #3 hitters, which certainly is an odd thing to base merit on, Mauer was 2nd in OPS among the 5 who qualified in the AL, 4th out of 7 if you lower the bar to 400 PA's. He also lead #3 hitters in runs which is just about as important as RBI's.

You're either scoring runs or bringing them in.

Nonetheless, position scarcity is still very real and it's still incredibly valuable if you're a good-hitting shortstop or catcher.

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In reply to by Rob G.

it's not that i can't see your view as much as i don't place nearly as much value on it. i place so little value on it that im not even close to the camp of people that would consider mauer a MVP. i see that you place a value on it and i get your side...it's just that i don't buy into it. evidently i'm doing a piss poor job expressing how much i don't buy into it.

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In reply to by crunch

Isn't it really a question of whether the MVP is the most valuable player in the league (ie...best player that year) or most valuable player in relation to his team? It seems like some are saying that there were better players than Mauer this year, so he doesn't deserve the award. Others say that Mauer was one of the best in the league, but was more valuable to the Twins than any other candidate was to his team. What does MLB say about this ridiculous award?

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In reply to by Rob G.

Yup Pujols for MVP, the cards wouldn't have made the playoffs withou.... what? The cards finished 3rd? Holy cow. That there is some value.

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In reply to by Chad

Remember a couple years ago, when Pujols didn't get the award, and he said that an MVP is someone who leads his team to the playoffs? I wonder if he'll refuse the award.

can you explain Super Two status and why Theriot doesn't qualify? explanation I read and I guess I'm confused by top 17% A: A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 12:17am.

can you explain Super Two status and why Theriot doesn't qualify? explanation I read and I guess I'm confused by top 17% A: A

==================================

ROB G: Ryan Theriot (2+118), Angel Guzman (2+095), Sean Marshall (2+087), and Carlos Marmol (2+084) are eligible to qualify as a "Super Two" for salary arbitration purposes post-2008 because all four accrued at least 86 days of MLB ST in 2008, but historically, players with less than 2+120 MLB ST usually don't qualify among the top 17%, although that could change this year. Of the four, Theriot is the one most-likely to qualify.

I guess I should have listed the four as being eligible to be a "Super Two" post-2008, so I will change that.

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 11:53am.
if that 2.120 holds true as the cutoff, that would be pretty sweet with Soto who is at 1.096 at the moment (I believe). That means Cubs will still have him at auto-renewal prices after 2009.

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ROB G: Best as I can determine, there are about 85 players who have at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time, with at least 86 days of MLB ST accrued during the 2008 season, meaning the top 14 (top 17%) of that group will probably qualify for salary arbitration this off-season as a "Super Two":

1. Fausto Carmona, RHP (CLE) - 2+169
2. Willy Aybar, INF (TB) - 2+153
3. Shawn Hill, RHP (WAS) - 2+153
4. Mike Napoli, C (LAA) - 2+151
5. Jack Taschner, LHP (SF) - 2+146
6. Chris Duncan, OF (STL) - 2+144
7. Angel Pagan, OF (NYM) - 2+144
8. Luke Scott, OF (BAL) - 2+144
9. Cole Hamels, LHP (PHI) - 2+143
10. Tim Byrdak, LHP (HOU) - 2+137
11. Melky Cabrera, OF (NYY) - 2+133
12. Jered Weaver, RHP (LAA) - 2+129
13. Shaun Marcum, RHP (TOR) - 2+128
14. B. J. Upton, OF (TB) - 2+126
- LIKELY CUT-OFF POINT -
15. James Shields, RHP (TB) = 2+125
16. Scott Baker, RHP (MIN) - 2+120
17. Ryan Theriot, INF (CUBS) - 2+118

Byrdak, Pagan, and Taschner will likely just get non-tendered, and Aybar, Hill, Duncan, and Scott could get traded or could possibly be non-tendered, but the others (Carmona, Napoli, Hamels, Cabrera, Weaver, Marcum, and Upton, plus Shields if he were to qualify) should get themselves a nice pay day one year earlier than they might otherwise have anticipated...

So it looks like the Cubs lucked out with Theriot, although the 2+125 MLB Service Time cut-off for "Super Two" arbitration rights is typical.

Recent comments

  • crunch (view)

    SF snags b.snell...2/62m

  • Cubster (view)

    AZ Phil: THAT is an awesome report worth multiple thanks. I’m sure it will be worth reposting in an “I told you so” in about 2-3 years.

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    The actual deadline to select a post-2023 Article XX-B MLB free agent signed to 2024 minor league contract (Cooper, Edwards, and Peralta) to the MLB 40-man roster is not MLB Opening Day, it is 12 PM (Eastern) this coming Sunday (3/24). 

    However, the Cubs could notify the player prior to the deadline that the player is not going to get added to the 40 on Sunday, which would allow the player to opt out early. Otherwise the player can opt out anytime after the Sunday deadline (if he was not added to the 40 by that time). 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    Today is an off day for both the Cubs MLB players and the Cubs minor league players.  

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    For those of you keeping track, so far nine players have been called up to Mesa from the Cubs Dominican Academy for Minor League Camp and they will be playing in the ACL in 2024: 

    * bats or throws left 

    Angel Cepeda, INF 
    * Miguel Cruz, P
    Yidel Diaz, C 
    * Albert Gutierrez, 1B
    Fraiman Marte, P  
    Francis Reynoso, P (ex-1B) 
    Derniche Valdez, INF 
    Edward Vargas, OF 
    Jeral Vizcaino, P 

    And once again, despite what you might read at Baseball Reference and at milb.com, Albert Gutierrez is absolutely positively a left-handed hitter (only), NOT a right-handed hitter.

    Probably not too surprisingly, D. Valdez was the Cubs #1 prospect in the DSL last season, Cepeda was the DSL Cubs best all-around SS prospect not named Derniche Valdez, Gutierrez was the DSL Cubs top power hitting prospect not named Derniche Valdez, E. Vargas was the DSL Cubs top outfield prospect (and Cepeda and E. Vargas were also the DSL Cubs top two hitting prospects), Y. Diaz was the DSL Cubs top catching prospect, and M. Cruz was the DSL Cubs top pitching prospect. 

    F. Marte (ex-STL) and J. Vizcaino (ex-MIL) are older pitchers (both are 22) who were signed by the Cubs after being released by other organizations and then had really good years working out of the bullpen for the Cubs in the DSL last season. 

    The elephant in the room is 21-year old Francis Reynoso, a big dude (6'5) who was a position player (1B) at the Cardinals Dominican Academy for a couple of years, then was released by STL in 2022, and then signed by the Cubs and converted to a RHP at the Cubs Dominican Academy (and he projects as a high-velo "high-leverage" RP in the states). He had a monster year for the DSL Cubs last season (his first year as a pitcher). 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    DJL: The only players who definitely have opt outs are Cooper, Edwards, and Peralta (Opening Day, 5/1, and 6/1), and that's because they are post-2023 Article XX-B MLB free agents who signed 2024 minor league contracts and (by rule) they get those opt outs automatically. 

    Otherwise, any player signed to a 2024 minor league contract - MIGHT or - MIGHT NOT - have an opt out in their contract, but it is an individual thing, and if there are contractual opt outs the opt out(s) might not necessarily be Opening Day. It could be 5/1, or 6/1, or 7/1 (TBD).

    Because of their extensive pro experience, the players who most-likely have contractual opt outs are Alfaro, Escobar, and D. Smith, but (again), not necessarily Opening Day. 

    Also, just because a player has the right to opt out doesn't mean he will. 

  • Dolorous Jon Lester (view)

    I love the idea that Madrigal heads to Iowa in case Morel can’t handle third.

    The one point that intrigues me here is Cooper over Smith. I feel like the Cubs really like Smith and don’t want to lose him. Could be wrong. He def seems like an opt out if he misses the opening day roster

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    Childersb3: Both Madrigal and Wisdom can be optioned without any restriction. Their consent is not required. 

    They both can be outrighted without restriction, too (presuming the player is not claimed off waivers), but if outrighted they can choose to elect free agency (immediately, or deferred until after the end of the MLB season).

    If the player is outrighted and elects free-agency immediately he forfeits what remains of his salary.

    If he accepts the assignment and defers free agency until after the conclusion of the season, he continues to get his salary, and he could be added back to the 40 anytime prior to becoming a free-agent (club option). 

  • Childersb3 (view)

    Phil, 
    Madrigal and Wisdom can or cannot refuse being optioned to the Minors?
    If they can refuse it, wouldn't they elect to leave the Cubs org?

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    In my opinion, the biggest "affirmative" mistake the Cubs made in the off-season (that is, doing something they should not have done), was blowing $9M in 2024 AAV on Hector Neris. What the Cubs actually need is an alternate closer to be in the pen and available to close if Alzolay pitched the day before (David Robertson would have been perfect), because with his forearm issue last September, I would be VERY wary of over-using Alzolay. I'm not even sure I would pitch him two days in a row!  

    And of course what the Cubs REALLY need is a second TOR SP to pair with Justin Steele. That's where the Cubs are going to need to be willing to package prospects (like the Padres did to acquire Dylan Cease, the Orioles did to acquire Corbin Burnes, and the Dodgers did to acquire Tyler Glasnow). Obviously those ships have sailed, but I would say right now the Cubs need to look very hard at trying to acquire LHSP Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins (and maybe LHP A. J. Puk as well).