Post-2008 Roster & Projected 2009 Organizational Depth Chart

OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2008:

CHICAGO CUBS RESERVE LIST (40-MAN ROSTER) AS OF 10/7/08:

* bats or throws left
# bats both

NOTE: There are presently 40 players on the Cubs RESERVE LIST (40-man roster), plus two additional players on the 60-day DISABLED LIST (players on 60-day DL do not count against the roster limit) 

PITCHERS (20):
Jose AscanioAUTO-RENEWAL (has ONE minor league option left)
* Neal CottsSALARY-ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Ryan Dempster - can be FREE-AGENT
Chad GaudinSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Angel GuzmanAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
Rich HardenSIGNED FOR 2009 (CLUB OPTION) or SALARY ARBITRATION eligible if CLUB OPTION is declined, and has right to DEMAND TRADE if CLUB OPTION is exercised
Kevin HartAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
* Rich HillAUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
Bob Howry - can be FREE-AGENT
* Ted Lilly - SIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
Carlos MarmolAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (has ONE minor league option left)
Jason Marquis - SIGNED FOR 2009
* Sean MarshallAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (has ONE minor league option left)
Billy PetrickAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
* Carmen Pignatiello AUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
Jeff SamardzijaSIGNED FOR 2009 (has TWO minor league options left & has “NO TRADE” rights)
Randy WellsAUTO-RENEWAL (has THREE minor league options left & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Kerry Wood - can be FREE-AGENT
Michael WuertzSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Carlos Zambrano - SIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)

CATCHERS (3):
Henry BlancoSIGNED FOR 2009 (CLUB OPTION) or can be FREE-AGENT if CLUB OPTION is declined
# Koyie HillAUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Geovany SotoAUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)

INFIELDERS (8):
Ronny CedenoSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT & CAN REFUSE OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
Mark DeRosaSIGNED FOR 2009
* Mike FontenotAUTO-RENEWAL (has ONE minor league option left)
* Micah HoffpauirAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
Derrek Lee - SIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
Casey McGeheeAUTO-RENEWAL (has THREE minor league options left)
Aramis RamirezSIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
Ryan TheriotAUTO-RENEWAL or could qualify for SALARY ARBITRATION as a "Super Two" (has TWO minor league options left)

OUTFIELDERS (9):  
* Jim Edmonds - can be FREE-AGENT
Jake Fox – AUTO RENEWAL (has ONE minor league option left)
* Kosuke FukudomeSIGNED FOR 2009 (has FOUR minor league options left & has “NO TRADE” rights)
* Sam FuldAUTO-RENEWAL (has TWO minor league options left)
Reed JohnsonSALARY ARBITRATION eligible (CAN REFUSE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT & OUTRIGHT ASSIGNMENT)
* Felix Pie - AUTO-RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
* Brad SnyderAUTO RENEWAL (NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT)
Alfonso SorianoSIGNED FOR 2009 (has “NO TRADE” rights)
* Daryle Ward - can be FREE-AGENT

60-DAY DISABLED LIST (2):
Chad Fox, P – can be FREE-AGENT
Jon Lieber, P - can be FREE-AGENT

NOTE: A player on the 15-day or 60-day DL must be reactivated no later than 11/20, but a DL assignment is automatically terminated when a player eligible to be a Free-Agent under Article XX of the CBA files for free-agency during the post-World Series Free-Agency Filing Period. Also, a player is automatically removed from the 40-man roster when he files for free-agency under Article XX. 

======================================

ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENT:
Henry Blanco (club option with buy-out)
Ryan Dempster
Jim Edmonds
Chad Fox
Bob Howry

Jon Lieber
Daryle Ward
Kerry Wood
NOTE: MLB players eligible to be free-agents under Article XX of the CBA must file for free-agency during the “Free-Agency Filing Period” (first 15 days after conclusion of the World Series). During the 15-day “Free-Agency Filing Period,” MLB clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own free-agents, although the other 29 MLB clubs can talk to the player about everything except money (they can discuss the benefits of playing in a particular city, how the player will be used, where the player will bat in the lineup or whether a pitcher will start or relieve, length of contract, no-trade rights, etc). Clubs then must decide by December 1st whether to offer salary arbitration to their own free-agents, and if they do offer salary arbitration, the player has until December 7th to accept or decline the offer. If the club does offer salary arbitration to the free-agent and if the player is rated as a Type “A” or Type “B” free-agent by the Elias Sports Bureau statistical service, the player’s old club would receive one or two compensation draft picks in the next June’s Rule 4 Draft if the player signs with another club (two picks if the player is rated Type “A” and one pick if the player is rated Type “B”). If the player’s old club does not offer salary arbitration on 12/1, the player’s old club can continue to negotiate with the player, but the club would not receive a compensation draft pick (or picks) if the player signs with another club.

=====================================

SIGNED FOR 2009

+ has “NO TRADE” rights
% can demand trade per Article XX of CBA if club option is exercised

Henry Blanco - $3M club option or $300K buy-out
Mark DeRosa - $5.5M  
+ Kosuke Fukudome - $11.5M
% Rich Harden - $7M club option or salary arbitration 
+ Derrek Lee - $13M
+ Ted Lilly - $12M
Jason Marquis - $9.875M 
+ Aramis Ramirez - $15.65M
+ Jeff Samardzija - $1.3M
+ Alfonso Soriano - $16M
+ Carlos Zambrano - $17.75M
 

TOTAL (SO FAR) - $112.575M (includes Blanco and Harden club options)
NOTE: TOTAL does NOT include so-called “pro-rated” signing bonuses that are used by MLB and the MLBPA for the purpose of calculating club payroll to determine possible “Competitive Balance Tax” obligations (tax is applied when a club’s payroll reaches $155M), because signing bonuses are usually paid in full when a player signs a contract (which is why it’s called a “signing bonus”) except when otherwise noted.

==============================

ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY-ARBITRATION:
Ronny Cedeno 
Neal Cotts
Chad Gaudin 
Angel Guzman (could qualify as a "Super Two" - see NOTE)
Rich Harden (but only if 2009 club option is declined)
Reed Johnson 
Carlos Marmol (could qualify as a "Super Two" - see NOTE)
Sean Marshall (could qualify as a "Super Two" - see NOTE)
Ryan Theriot  (could qualify as a "Super Two"- see NOTE)
Michael Wuertz
 

PROJECTED ADDITION TO PAYROLL IF ALL FIVE PLAYERS WHO ARE DEFINITELY ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY ARBITRATION (not including Rich Harden, Angel Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Theriot) ARE OFFERED ARBITRATION: $7.5M 
NOTE: Players who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time (MLB ST) in 2008 and who have accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB ST through the 2008 season could possibly qualify for salary arbitration as a "Super Two" post-2008 if the player rates among the top 17% in MLB ST of all players in that category. The four Cubs players who are eligible to possibly qualify as a "Super Two" post-2008 are Ryan Theriot (2+118 MLB ST), Angel Guzman (2+095), Sean Marshall (2+087), and Carlos Marmol (2+084).

Clubs must decide by December 12th whether to offer salary arbitration to players who are eligible. If the club elects to offer salary arbitration, the club and the player proceed onward through the arbitration process, but the player and the club can reach an agreement at any point prior to a hearing. If the club decides not to offer arbitration to an arbitration-eligible player on 12/12, the player immediately becomes an unrestricted free-agent at that time and is free to sign with any MLB club (including his former club), and the player’s old club receives no compensation if the player signs with a new club. 

============================================

AUTO-RENEWAL (PRE-ARBITRATION)

NOTE: 2009 MLB minimum salary is $400K with a $65K minimum “minor league split salary” ($32.5K minimum “minor league split” for players with no MLB ST who are on 40-man roster for the first time). Also, a minor league split salary for an “auto-renewal” player must be at least 60% of what the player was actually paid in salary during 2008 season. Clubs must tender contracts to “auto-renewal” (pre-arbitration) players on December 12th. If no contract is offered, the player is considered “non-tendered” and immediately becomes an unrestricted free-agent and can sign with any MLB club (including his old club). If a contract is tendered on 12/12, the player has until the first week of March to negotiate with his club, but if no agreement is reached by that time, the club can automatically renew the player’s contract for an amount no less than 80% of the previous year’s salary.

Jose Ascanio
Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Sam Fuld
Angel Guzman
Kevin Hart 
Koyie Hill
Rich Hill
Micah Hoffpauir
Carlos Marmol
Casey McGehee
Sean Marshall
Billy Petrick
Felix Pie
Carmen Pignatiello
Brad Snyder
Geovany Soto
Ryan Theriot
Randy Wells
 

PROJECTED ESTIMATED 2009 AUTO-RENEWAL SALARIES FOR NINE PLAYERS: $4M
NOTE:
Total does NOT include minor league split salaries for players on 40-man roster who are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors. 

====================================

PROJECTED ESTIMATED 2009 TOTAL PAYROLL AS OF TODAY (includes the 11 players who are signed for 2009 and the five players who are eligible for salary arbitration, plus nine “auto renewal” players TBD who would be needed to fill-out the 25-man roster): $124M  

==================================

ELIGIBLE TO BE RULE 55 MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT:
Andres Blanco, SS
Mike Burns, RHP
Hector Carrasco, RHP
Robinson Chirinos, C-IF
Matt Craig, 1B-3B
Jason Dubois, OF-1B
Doug Deeds, OF-1B
Danny Fatheree, C 
Luis Figueroa, INF
Dumas Garcia, RHP
Adam Harben, RHP
Josh Kroeger, OF
Jason Stanford, LHP
Bobby Scales, IF-OF
Andres Torres, OF
NOTE: Clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own minor league free-agents until the end of the World Series. If a minor league FA is added to his club’s 40-man roster prior to the conclusion of the World Series, the player is not eligible to be a free-agent. Players eligible to be minor league free-agents who are not added to their club’s 40-man roster by the conclusion of the World Series are free to sign a major league or minor league contract with any organization, including their old club.    

============================================

ELIGIBLE FOR 2008 RULE 5 DRAFT:
James Adduci, OF
Alberto Alburquerque, RHP
Mitch Atkins, RHP
Matt Avery, RHP
Justin Berg, RHP
Todd Blackford, RHP
Edward Campusano, LHP 
Russ Canzler, 1B
Yusuf Carter, OF 
Rafael Dolis, RHP
Jesse Estrada, RHP 
Ryan Harvey, OF
Jim Henderson, RHP
Mark Holliman, RHP
> Grant Johnson, RHP
Marcos Mateo, RHP
J. R. Mathes, LHP
Mario Mercedes, C
Jonathan Mota, INF
Jake Muyco, RHP
Vince Perkins, RHP
Jose Pina, RHP
Mark Reed, C
Gregory Reinhard, RHP
Kyle Reynolds, 1B
Tony Richie, C
Chris Robinson, C
Jayson Ruhlman, LHP
Alvaro Sosa, C
Nate Spears, 2B
Donald Veal, LHP
NOTE: A player on this list is not eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if added to the 40-man roster by November 20th. Also, any free-agent who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft. In addition, a club can designate any player who is not otherwise eligible for the Rule 5 Draft as available if the club so chooses, although this rarely happens. Probably a club would do this only if it was planning to release the player after the draft. For example, it's possible that the Cubs will choose to make Peoria RHP Julio Castillo (indicted for felonious assault with a deadly weapon after throwing a baseball at a fan in Dayton this past season) available for selection in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft  even though Castillo otherwise isn't eligible for the Rule 5 for the first time until after next season, since the Cubs do not have a minor league club in the Ohio State Prison League (at this time).

=====================================

2009: 

MINOR LEAGUE OPTION STATUS FOR PLAYERS WITH LESS THAN FIVE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME (SPRING TRAINING 2009):

NOTE: Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before being optioned to the minors during Spring Training 2009 or anytime during the 2009 season. Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, and Jose Ascanio would NOT have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before being optioned to the minors during Spring Training (prior to Opening Day), but Marshall would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before being optioned to the minors anytime during the regular season (starting on Opening Day), Marmol would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers beginning on June 4th, and Ascanio would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers beginning on July 13th. (Because an Optional Assignment waiver request can be withdrawn if the player is claimed by another club, Optional Assignment waiver claims are rare).  

NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Ronny Cedeno (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors) 
Neal Cotts (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
Chad Gaudin (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
Angel Guzman
Koyie Hill (can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
Rich Hill
Felix Pie
Brad Snyder
Geovany Soto
Michael Wuertz
(can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)
NOTE: Players who are out of minor league options must clear Outright Assignment Waivers (which are irrevocable) before they can be sent to the minors. Players with at least three years of MLB Service Time and players who have been previously outrighted in their career can refuse an Outright Assignment and can opt to become a free-agent instead. (Free-agency option can be exercised immediately, or player can defer option until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season). 

ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT:
Jose Ascanio (see NOTE)
Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox 
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall
NOTE
: Jose Ascanio has used three minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he has spent only four “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option in 2009 as long as it is exercised prior to completing five full seasons. 

TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT
Sam Fuld
Kevin Hart
Micah Hoffpauir
Billy Petrick
(see NOTE)
Carmen Pignatiello
Jeff Samardzija
(see NOTE)
Ryan Theriot
NOTE: Billy Petrick has used two minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he has spent only three “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is exercised prior to completing five full seasons.
Jeff Samardzija has used two minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he has spent only two “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is exercised prior to completing five full seasons. 

THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Casey McGehee
Randy Wells
(can refuse Outright Assignment to minors)

FOUR MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Kosuke Fukudome 

======================================

PROJECTED 2009 CUBS ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH CHART

* bats or throws left
# bats both

CATCHERS:
CUBS: Geovany Soto/Henry Blanco/# Koyie Hill 
IOWA: Tony Richie/* Blake Lalli/Chris Robinson 
TENN: Welington Castillo/* Mark Reed
DAYT: Luis Flores/Mario Mercedes
PEOR: Carlos Perez/Michael Brenly  
EXST: * Matt Cerda/# Alvaro Sosa/Jose Guevara/Pat Mahoney/Juan Medina 
DSLC: Carlos Gonzalez/Ricardo Parra/Jose Vigay/Yamel Liria  

FIRST-BASEMEN:
CUBS: Derrek Lee/* Micah Hoffpauir
IOWA: * Kyle Reynolds      
TENN: Russ Canzler/* Steve Clevenger 
DAYT: Jovan Rosa/Luis Bautista    
PEOR: Rebel Ridling/* Ryan Keedy      
EXST: Sean Hoorelbeke/* Bryan Jost   
DSLC: # Alexander Mejia/Melvin Camarena/Carlos Romero/Justino Guzman

SECOND-BASEMEN:
CUBS: Mark DeRosa/* Mike Fontenot 
IOWA: * Nate Spears   
TENN: Tony Thomas     
DAYT: * Ryan Flaherty/Josh Harrison      
PEOR: * Jake Opitz/Gian Guzman  
EXST: * Logan Watkins/Dwayne Kemp   
DSLC: # Ramon Bonilla/# Vismeldy Bieneme/# Jose Montecino

THIRD-BASEMEN:
CUBS: Aramis Ramirez 
IOWA: Casey McGehee   
TENN: Josh Lansford 
DAYT: Marquez Smith
PEOR: Josh Vitters
EXST: John Contreras/Carlos Morales     
DSLC: # Nelson Pierre/Juan Pena/Pedro Ramirez

SHORTSTOPS:
CUBS: Ryan Theriot/Ronny Cedeno  
IOWA: * Matt Camp/# Matt Matulia 
TENN: Darwin Barney/Jonathan Mota  
DAYT: Nathan Samson/Jose Made
PEOR: Starlin Castro/# Marwin Gonzalez
EXST: Junior Lake/George Matheus/* Hak-Ju Lee     
DSLC: # Robert Bautista/* Melido Perez/Miguel Salazar 

LEFT-FIELDERS:
CUBS: Alfonso Soriano/* Brad Snyder   
IOWA: * Tyler Colvin  
TENN: Ty Wright
DAYT: Brandon Guyer  
PEOR: * Drew Rundle 
EXST: * Ryan Sontag/TeWayne Willis/* Sean Williams
DSLC: Jesus Morelli/# Jose Valdez/Albert Hernandez/# Gregorio Robles

CENTER-FIELDERS
CUBS: * Felix Pie/Reed Johnson
IOWA: * Sam Fuld 
TENN: * Jonathan Wyatt/Yusuf Carter  
DAYT: * Tony Campana    
PEOR: * Cliff Andersen 
EXST: * Kurt Calvert/# David Macias/* Clark Hardman   
DSLC: * Francisco Guzman/Manuel Pestana/Pedro Medina

RIGHT-FIELDERS
CUBS: * Kosuke Fukudome
IOWA: Jake Fox 
TENN: * James Adduci/Ryan Harvey
DAYT: * Dylan Johnston   
PEOR: * Kyler Burke/Jericho Jones   
EXST: * Nelson Perez/Kevin Soto  
DSLC: Alejandro Damian/Luis Andrades

STARTING PITCHERS

CUBS:
Carlos Zambrano
* Ted Lilly
Rich Harden
* Sean Marshall
Jason Marquis
* Rich Hill

IOWA:
Mitch Atkins
Randy Wells
* J. R. Mathes
* Donald Veal
Justin Berg

TENNESSEE:
Esmailin Caridad
* James Russell
Billy Muldowney
* Jeremy Papelbon
Marco Carrillo
Alessandro Maestri

DAYTONA:
Hung-Wen Chen
Jay Jackson
Casey Coleman
Aaron Shafer
Robert Hernandez
Alberto Alburquerque

PEORIA:
Chris Carpenter
* Jeffrey Beliveau
Josh Whitlock
Ryan Searle
Kevin Kreier
Ryan Acosta
Justin Bristow
Dae-Eun Rhee

EXST:
Larry Suarez
Alberto Cabrera
Chris Huseby
Oswaldo Martinez
* Jeffry Antigua
Julio Pena
Yohan Gonzalez
Miguel Sierra
Dionis Nunez
Diego Encarnacion

DSLC:
Edilmar Infante
Hector Mayorga
* Marcos Perez
Roderick Pichardo
Ramon Reyes
Luis Liria
Eduardo Figueroa
Ramon Garcia
Jose Tineo
Starlin Peralta

BULLPEN:

CUBS:
Carlos Marmol (closer)
Jeff Samardzija
Chad Gaudin
* Neal Cotts
Michael Wuertz
Kevin Hart
Angel Guzman

IOWA:
Jose Ceda (closer)
Rocky Roquet
Jose Ascanio
* Casey Lambert
Gregory Reinhard 
Jesse Estrada
Mark Holliman
* Carmen Pignatiello
Billy Petrick
Jim Henderson

TENNESSEE:
Brian Schlitter (closer)
Matt Avery
* Edward Campusano
Marcos Mateo
* Jayson Ruhlman
Jordan Latham
Blake Parker
Grant Johnson
Vince Perkins

DAYTONA: 
Andrew Cashner (closer)
Steve Vento
* Dustin Sasser
Michael Cooper
John Muller
* Zach Ashwood
Jake Muyco
Todd Blackford
* Chris Siegfried
Craig Muschko
Jose Pina
Jon Mueller

PEORIA:
Dan McDaniel (closer)
David Cales
* James Leverton
Audy Santana
* Luke Sommer
Cedric Redmond
* Mark Pawelek 
Erik Hamren
Harol Tolentino
Bubba O’Donnell
Mike Perconte
Tommy Mejia
Marcus Hatley

EXST:
Manolin DeLeon (closer)
Rafael Dolis
Tarlandus Mitchell
Kitt Kopach
* Leon Johnson
Toby Matchulat
Eric Allen
Carlos Rojas
Andres Quezada
* Cody Hams
Adam Spencer
Miguel Corletto
Jon Nagel

====================================

POST-2009

ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENT AFTER 2009 SEASON:
Henry Blanco (if 2009 club option is exercised)
Mark DeRosa
Reed Johnson
Rich Harden
Jason Marquis

=======================================

PLAYERS SIGNED BEYOND 2009
Derrek Lee ($13M in 2010, then FA – has full “no trade”)
Ted Lilly ($12M in 2010, then FA – has full “no trade”)
Aramis Ramirez ($15.75M in 2010, $14.6M 2011 player option, and $16M 2012 mutual option with $2M buy-out – has full “no trade”)
Kosuke Fukudome ($13M in 2010 and $13.5M in 2011 – has full “no trade”)
Jeff Samardzija ($2.5M in 2010: $2.8M in 2011, $3M mutual option in 2012 - player can opt out only if he is eligible for salary arbitration, and $3.5M mutual option in 2013 - player can opt out only if he is eligible for salary-arbitration)
NOTE: Samardzija must accrue six years of MLB Service Time before he can be a Free-Agent
Carlos Zambrano ($17.875 in 2010 and 2011, and $18M in 2012, plus $19.25M vesting-player option  in 2013 – has full “no trade”) 
Alfonso Soriano ($18M 2010 through 2014, then FA – has full “no trade”)

=====================================

PROJECTED ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY ARBITRATION POST-2009:
Ronny Cedeno
Neal Cotts
Mike Fontenot (would be eligible to possibly qualify as “Super Two”)
Chad Gaudin
Angel Guzman
Koyie Hill
Rich Hill
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall 
Felix Pie
(would be eligible to possibly qualify as a "Super Two")
Geovany Soto (would be eligible to possibly qualify as "Super Two")
Ryan Theriot
Michael Wuertz
NOTE:
Cedeno, Cotts, Gaudin, Guzman, K. Hill, R. Hill, and Wuertz will definitely be eligible for salary arbitration post-2009, but in order for Fontenot, Marmol, Marshall, and/or Theriot to be eligible, player would have to spend part, most, or all of 2009 season (depending on player) on MLB 25-man roster (or 15-day or 60-day DL), and Fontenot, Pie, and Soto would only be eligible if player qualifies for arbitration as a "Super Two" (TBD).   

====================================

MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT POST-2009:
Edward Campusano
, LHP
Danny Fatheree, C
Ryan Harvey, OF
Jim Henderson, RHP
Jose Pina, RHP
Tony Richie, C
Nate Spears
, 2B

=============================

POST-2009 FIRST TIME ELIGIBLE FOR RULE 5 DRAFT:
Francisco Acosta
, RHP
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Matt Camp, IF-OF
Marco Carrillo, RHP
Julio Castillo, RHP
Welington Castillo, C 
Jose Ceda, RHP
Steve Clevenger, C-1B
Tyler Colvin, OF
Michael Cooper, RHP
Arturo Florentino, RHP
Robert Hernandez, RHP
Edilmar Infante, RHP
Dylan Johnston, OF
Kitt Kopach, RHP
Blake Lalli, C-1B
Josh Lansford, RHP (ex-3B)
Alessandro Maestri, RHP
Matt Matulia, INF
Jon Mueller, RHP
Billy Muldowney
, RHP
Dionis Nunez
, RHP
Jeremy Papelbon, LHP
Blake Parker, RHP
Mark Pawelek, LHP
Carlos Perez, C
Andres Quezada
, RHP
Rocky Roquet, RHP
Tomas Sanchez, RHP
Audy Santana, RHP
Miguel Sierra, RHP
Harol Tolentino, RHP

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Comments

Holy Cow.

Arizona Phil, you must be the workhorse of this blog. Thanks.

2 questions:

1. What do you see the Cubs doing with Rich Hill? With no options left it seems like they either have to put him on the DL to in order to send him to the minors and get his stuff worked out or they have to risk carrying him on the 25 and just hope for a rebound.

2. Do you see guys like Jake Fox, Casey McGehee, Sam Fuld, and Brad Snyder (who the heck is Brad Snyder?) dropped from the 40-man in order to make room for Rule 5 eligible guys like Mitch Atkins and Donald Veal?

Wow, that is some wonderful data.

From a design standpoint, might it be able to use Rob G.'s patented "after the jump" when posting such a fantastic amount of awesome research?

I added a break :)

I'll update the TCR 40-man page with the new option info...I'm gonna bug you about some service time questions as well, if you don't mind.

Great work as always...

via Rotoworld

General manager Walt Jocketty said Tuesday that the Reds will not re-sign Corey Patterson.

Poor Corey. Who does he have to sleep with to get a starting job?

I was looking at that too. Our CF problems are solved!

Ben Sheets doesn't think he'll be back with Milwaukee, Ryan Braun said something that CC really liked Milwaukee and might consider signing with them for less years but not necessarily less money per year.

AZ Phil has it as club option, the cubs.com article and Cot's has it as a mutual option.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=2...

Not like Blanco would turn down $3M if the Cubs decide to pick up their end. That is unless he decided to run for president of Venezuela.

speaking of Blanco, got kicked off his Venezuelan team for bad-mouthing the manager...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs...

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/12057...

''The boom-and-bust cycle's over,'' Cubs CEO Crane Kenney said, even before the Los Angeles Dodgers finished sweeping the Cubs out of the playoffs. ''I mean, that whole 'get in in '98, drought until '03' -- that should be over.''

and

Hendry's aggressive redirection has been paired with a renewed financial push by ownership. This year's payroll was a franchise-record $130 million, up more than $20 million from 2007. And Kenney anticipates another bump going into next season, even with the uncertainty of an ownership transition that could occur by spring training.

An increase in revenues and projected revenues -- from additional ballpark advertising and other sources -- are part of the reason for that, Kenney said.

thanks to 10man for the link from the previous thread...

Submitted by Charlie on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 9:56am.

Holy Cow. Arizona Phil, you must be the workhorse of this blog. Thanks.

2 questions:

1. What do you see the Cubs doing with Rich Hill? With no options left it seems like they either have to put him on the DL to in order to send him to the minors and get his stuff worked out or they have to risk carrying him on the 25 and just hope for a rebound.

2. Do you see guys like Jake Fox, Casey McGehee, Sam Fuld, and Brad Snyder (who the heck is Brad Snyder?) dropped from the 40-man in order to make room for Rule 5 eligible guys like Mitch Atkins and Donald Veal?

==================================

CHARLIE: I suspect the Cubs will hang onto Rich Hill into Spring Training 2009, and hope that he can revert to his 2007 form. If it doesn't look like he has regained his 2007 form in ST, and because he is out of minor league options, the Cubs will have to either outright him to the minors or trade him. Since he would probably get claimed off outright waivers, the Cubs will probably trade him rather than risk losing him for $20K.

As for Hill's most-likely destination if he gets traded, I would say probably Baltimore (Hill's minor league pitching coach guru Alan Dunn is an Orioles coach). It will be interesting to see if the Orioles sign Michael Barrett, who was Hill's favorite catcher and best friend when both were with the Cubs.

The Cubs really don't need to outright any players right now. They can just wait until the seven Article XX free-agents file for free-agency after the World Series and use those five slots (two of the seven free-agents are on the 60-day DL so only five slots on the 40-man roster will be available) to add the two or three minor leaguers (RHP Mitch Atkins, LHP Donald Veal, and 2B Nate Spears) they will probably want to add to the 40-man roster on 11/20. I guess RHPs Justin Berg, Jesse Estrada and Gregory Reinhard and LHP J. R. Mathes are other possible candidates to get added to the 40 next month, but I would say they are long-shots.

I suspect the Cubs will try and re-sign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood and so they will keep roster slots open for them, but I doubt that Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bob Howry, Jon Lieber, or Daryle Ward will return in 2009, so the Cubs should have three slots available on their 40-man roster for Atkins, Veal, and Spears on 11/20.

The Cubs will probably decline their 2009 $3M club option ($300K buy-out) on Henry Blanco, but then they will also probably try and re-sign him for less money (probably around $1.2M, with performance bonuses in case Soto gets hurt and Blanco ends up playing more than would be anticipated).

As for who the Cubs would be likely to outright prior to 11/20 or non-tender on 12/12 in case they need additional space on the 40-man roster during off-season, I would say LHP Carmen Pignatiello would be the most-likely candidate. I don't think the Cubs would want to outright Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, Brad Snyder, Casey McGehee, or Koyie Hill until they see where they stand at the end of Spring Training.

As for Brad Snyder, the Cubs claimed him off Outright Waivers from the Cleveland Indians last month. Snyder was the Indians 1st round draft pick in 2003 out of Ball State, and was a Baseball America Top Ten Indians Prospect four years running (2004-07) and was also a BA MLB Top 100 Prospect in 2005-06. Snyder has plus-power, plus-speed, and a plus-arm, but he also strikes out a TON, which is why he struggled at AAA in 2007 and 2008.

Because he is out of minor league options, claiming Snyder off outright waivers is essentially like getting a Rule 5 pick for $20K (Rule 5 picks cost $50K). I suspect Cubs scouts probably saw a lot of Snyder and liked him back in 2002 when they were scouting teammate Luke Hagerty at Ball State, and maybe the Cubs figure Snyder might benefit from a change in organization.

Snyder will give Felix Pie and Kosuke Fukudome some competition in Spring Training and will provide outfield depth, but unless somebody gets hurt, I believe the Cubs will probably try to get him through Outright Assignment Waivers and send him to Iowa prior to Opening Day. (Both Snyder and Felix Pie are out of minor league options).

Submitted by Rob G. on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 11:05am.

AZ Phil has it as club option, the cubs.com article and Cot's has it as a mutual option.

==========================

ROB G: It was originally a mutual option for 2009, but Blanco failed to meet the minimum number of ABs required to make the player option portion of the mutual option kick-in. So now it's just a $3M club option with a $300K buy-out.

silly me...what was I thinking?

THANKS AGAIN AZ PHIL!

Do you think its sink or swim finally for Angel Guzman?

He had one nice inning, in a September call-up game I was at, then of course, Lou used him in the next inning and got toasted.

Will he be kept on the 40man after Spring Training, in your opinion?

Traded?

Released?

It will be intersting to see if Rich Harden will demand a trade if the Cubs exercise their $7M club option for 2009.

Because he signed a multi-year deal under the previous CBA, and because he had accrued 5+ years of MLB Service Time at the time he was traded, Harden has the arcane right to demand a trade during the free-agency filing period that immediately follows the season he gets traded. (If the Cubs had acquired Harden just two days earlier, he would have fallen short of five years of MLB ST and he would not have the right to demand a trade), 

But if the Cubs don't exercise their club option, then Harden can't demand a trade, and instead he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. (Harden will be a free-agent after the 2009 season).

But if the Cubs do exercise their club option, Harden could demand a contract extention, and if the Cubs don't want to give him one, he can demand a trade, and then the Cubs either have to trade him by March 15th or else he can become a free-agent on 3/15 (player option). And if he does become a FA under those circumstances, the Cubs get no draft picks as compensation for losing him.

If Harden does demand a trade, he can list up to six MLB clubs to which he can refuse a trade, and he can rescind the request at any time prior to being traded, and he doesn't even have to become a FA if he doesn't get traded by March 15th. It's strictly a player option.

But if he does demand a trade under Article XX and then gets traded, he can't be a free-agent for three seasons (post-2011), delaying his free-agency by two years (although he would be eligible for salary arbitration post-2009 and post-2010).

To put maximum pressure on the Cubs, Harden will certainly wait until the Cubs exercise their club option before deciding whether to demand a trade, and then it will be too late for the Cubs to decline their 2009 $7M club option and offer arbitration instead. And if the Cubs do exercise their club option and then Harden demands a trade, what will the Cubs do?

Would it be better for the Cubs to just decline the club option and go the salary arbitration route, even if Harden will likley make more than $7M in arbitration? Because I can't see the Cubs giving Harden a multi-year contract. Not with that cranky shoulder.

Or would it be better for the Cubs to go ahead and exercise their club option, hoping that Harden won't demand a trade because if he does and then gets traded, it would delay his free-agency by two seasons (although he would be eligible for salary arbitration after 2009 and 2010)?

Would Rich Harden really get significantly more than $7 million through arbitration? Sure, he was great this year, but in 2006 and 2007 he had a combined total of only 13 major league starts and 16 total major league appearances. Does that get factored in during arbitration?

Also, I wonder whether the Cubs will offer arbitration to Howry (I don't think they're going to try to sign him back). He's a type B free agent, I believe. Offering him arbitration combined with his bad year might be enough to scare anyone else away from signing him and get the Cubs stuck with him for whatever the arbiters think he's worth.

Wouldnt the prudent thing to do be to decline the option and do a 2-year deal with him where he makes 7 mil in 09 and a base salary of 7 million in 10 with a 500k Incentive for every 50 IP and a 100K incentive for every start in 09. That way Harden gets some guarnteed money for 10 if he falls apart and if in 09 he pitches like the ace he can be he gets paid in the neighborhood of one in 2010, as if he were to make 30 starts and throw 200 innings next season he would make 12 million in 2010. He would still be only 28 he when he hits free agency and if he can show he is not an injury risk he stands to collect a 200 million deal. From the Cubs POV if you go into arbitation with Harden you can bet the 12 million a year that Burnett got would be the number Harden will likely due to the simlarity between the two. So in the worst case scenerio with Harden you only spend 2 million extra on him and in the best case you only spend 7 million extra for a flat out stud. It sounds like a win-win scenerio to me.

Submitted by The E-Man on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 11:58am.

THANKS AGAIN AZ PHIL!

Do you think its sink or swim finally for Angel Guzman? He had one nice inning, in a September call-up game I was at, then of course, Lou used him in the next inning and got toasted.

Will he be kept on the 40man after Spring Training, in your opinion? Traded? Released?

===========================

E-MAN: Unless he has some type of medical setback, I would expect Angel Guzman to be in the Cubs bullpen on Opening Day 2009. 

If he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, they will probably trade him. He's out of minor league options, so I doubt that the Cubs will take a chance on losing him off Outright Waivers. 

Thanks, AZ Phil.

Do you really think Veal can stay a starter? I can't imagine that's likely. Also, I'm surprised to see you think Maestri will stay a starter and that Kreier will return to Peoria.

Submitted by Raisin101 on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:40pm.

Thanks, AZ Phil.

Do you really think Veal can stay a starter? I can't imagine that's likely.

Also, I'm surprised to see you think Maestri will stay a starter and that Kreier will return to Peoria.

==========================

RAISIN: I believe Veal will remain a starter until he reaches MLB, and then he'll be a reliever. He throws too many pitches-per-inning to be a rotation starter in the big leagues, but right now he needs to get innings under his belt. Same goes for Maestri, although Maestri might get moved back to the bullpen when he hits Iowa.

I think Kevin Kreier will return to Peoria in 2009 (at least at the start of the season), mainly because there are other guys ahead of him who are more advanced, and because there are several college pitchers the Cubs drafted this past June (Jackson, Coleman, Shafer, Carpenter, and Beliveau) who have better stuff than Kreier has right now.

Kreier throws a marginal 86-88 MPH straight fastball, a decent change-up, and an OK breaking ball, and he has a good head for pitching. But he really needs to develop a cutter, because his fastball (as is) just isn't very impressive.

Thanks, AZ Phil. I never knew Kreier's stuff was that pedestrian. Makes sense to keep Veal starting for the innings (which is what I'd like to see the Cubs do with Cashner too).

Do you know anything about the health status of Justin Bristow, Marcus Hatley (both of whom left Boise with injuries in 2008) and the oft-injured Rafael Dolis?

Again, thanks!

Great summary Phil -

Would love to hear your thoughts on what they will do with Rich Hill. Also, your org depth chart is wonderful. What positions do you think we are deepest at and what show a lack of promise. It appears we are fairly stocked at catcher (Soto, Castillo, Lalli), 2B (Thomas), LF (Colvin) and Power arms (Ceda, Cashner)but very weak at 1B, SS, RF and SP. Give me your thoughts.

Stone believes Cubs will try to trade Dlee.

Feels team not "jelling" in the way they should and Dlee is on decline.

Well we know Stone was not watching the Cubs this October as he showed he can still hit. If you trade Lee and dont replace by paying Texiera you also lose value on Aram and Theriot as they will become liabilties in the field. I think one of the big bats will be the subject of some Hot Stove Talk, but I doubt its Lee and its more likely to be Soriano. I think Soriano for Beltran will be this winter's version of Cedeno, Gallagher, Epat, Murton for Brian Roberts.

There is absolutely on way that the Mets would even think about trading Beltran for Soriano.

Gotta go with El Duderino, here. That would be a huge mistake on the part of the Mets and an amazing move for the Cubs. Cubs suddenly get an answer in CF, can sign Ibanez to play LF and they've got a terrifying lineup and no loss defensively. The Mets on the other hand get a sort of solution in LF and do what to fill CF? Minaya would have to go into hiding. Beltran is by far more valuable than Soriano.

I can certainly see why you'd want this to happen though. I mean, say the Cubs manage to sign Ibanez and trade for Roberts while they are at it.

Roberts
Lee
Beltran
Ramirez
Ibanez
Soto
DeRosa
Theriot
Zambrano

Isn't fantasy baseball fun?

Jelling? Really?

And as Rob G said in the previous thread, Steve Stone does not exactly have a great record on his predictions.

I wonder if Steve Stone knows D-Lee has a no-trade clause in his contract. Lee isn't going anywhere he doesn't want to go.

Well, good luck with that one - who's going to pay Lee, and what team could convince him to move at this stage of his career? But if they pulled it off and signed Texiera, wow.

". . . what team could convince him to move at this stage of his career?"

He lives in California, and he was supposed to clean out his locker yesterday.

Why would the Mets trade Beltran, after the season he just had?

He isnt the favorite of the NY media and Minaya might feel the urge to make a move given their collapse the last 2 years and moving into CitiField. I said it would be like the Roberts rumor, which did not happen but was talked about adnasuem and I think the same thing will happen here.

there's absolutely no reason for the Mets to trade Beltran, especially for another bat.

http://www.sacbee.com/100/story/1248904.html

Matt Cain for JJ Hardy AND Prince Fielder

I tend to doubt this as Fielder is too much to give up for Cain and adding Hardy makes it overkill for the Brewers to give up. If the Giants added Brian Wilson to the deal I think it would be a good deal for both clubs. Mat Gamel should be able to match Hardy's production and Yulides Escobar can do better than what Milwaukee's 3B did last year. With Wilson in the fold you you can spend Gagne's 10 million and some of the savings on losing Sheets to go out and get Dunn to play 1B.

I approve of that ridiculous trade.

Me too. Fielder can take the monstrous year he's going to have in 2009 as far from the NL Central as possible.

Fielder is not the Brewers best player is. Ryan Braun is a far superior player.

fielder can do one thing only and that is hit home runs.

OK. I'm not sure what Ryan Braun being better has to do with anything, but:

I would argue Fielder isn't completely one-dimensional. He's pretty damn good at taking a walk and has a career OBP of .370 in the majors. Also, even though his 3+ seasons in the majors began at the age of 21 (he's now 24), he's a career .278 hitter that has never batted lower than .271 in the majors. At his young age there seems to be reason to expect improvement.

He's not much of a defender nor does he run the bases particularly well, but he's a multi-faceted hitter.

By the way:

Ryan Braun had a bigger edge on him if you thought he was going to be an adequate defender at 3rd, but he's pretty entrenched in LF now.

In 2008 Braun posted an OPS of .888 while Fielder posted .903. Factor in Braun's base stealing skills and it looks like a dead heat between two players who are basically the same age (actually, Braun is a few months older).

I guess from a value perspective, Braun has less service time. Oh, and Fielder is really fat, which is a legitimate concern for a GM.

i don't know what is wrong with my eyes. i swear it said milwaukee's best player.

It's not so much the speed but all the cough syrup I drank this moring

/john winger

but that is why i hate OPS as a stat. It gets inflated for a guy like Fielder who gets intentionally walked a lot and hits a lot of homers.

Prince Fielder in 2008: 19 IBB

Ryan Braun in 2008: 4 IBB

You've got that one, definitely. Those walks do quite a bit to inflate Fielder's OBP. Of course, having Fielder behind him may help Braun to receive fewer IBB walks and get more pitches to hit, but that's a complex argument, so we'll move on.

Braun had 39 doubles to Fielder's 30, 37 HRs to Fielder's 34, 7 3Bs to Fielder's 2, and 174 hits to Fielder's 162.

I also have to show that I made a mistake in my previous comment: Fielder's 2008 OPS was .879, not the .903 I posted (his career OPS).

Regardless of issues of lineup position and "protection," it's clear that Braun had the better 2008 and that it was pretty much a dead heat in 2009 (offensively). Who is the better player is probably still up for debate--maybe more so who will be the better player in coming years.

But I still think that giving the Giants JJ Hardy and Fielder for Cain and Wilson would be to overpay drastically.

edit:

And no biggy about hallucinating the "best player." I now understand how this came up.

edit 2:

Oh, and I'm curious: what stats do you favor, Chad?

OPS is out, looks like OBP too. If you're not a fan of stats that favor homeruns, then I would think slugging % would be out as well.

Average? Runs? RBI?

I've talked to Brewer fans I know and the most realistic among them agree with me on this point: Fat guys don't have long careers. And Fielder is enormous. If the Brewers can get a great deal now they should take it rather than waiting until he begins to break down. And fat guys do break down... fast. Once he begins to physically erode he'll be worth way less. The Brewers would do well to see who in the American League is interested in the next Big Poppy and get a starter and position player.

i think batting average runs and rbis are the best way to evaluate a player.

I'm kidding.

I've been through these wars before and I like the totality of all stats. i take them all with a grain of salt. Look at Adam Dunn. He's a carrer .900 ops hitter. Aramis is a .843. But aramis is a much more complete and better hitter.

Baseball Reference formula for OBP:

OBP - On-Base Percentage (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+SF+HBP)

Doesn't include IBBs. Otherwise the guy who bats ahead of the pitcher would get an inflated OBP.

Fielder 2008: 162+84+12 / 588+84+10+12 = .372

The 19 IBBs are not counted.

oh dear...that was nearly as silly as navigator's Frank McCourt wikipedia citation that he thought was real.

IBB's count as BB's. Fielder walked 84 times INCLUDING his 19 IBB's. Some smart folks will subtract the IBB's from a player's walk total for a non-IBB OBP which in Fielder's case would be about a .350 OBP, but it's not a readily available stat.

You know more about OBP than I do. BR has separate columns for BB and IBB, that's all I know.

I'm curious about that McCourt reference, though. Who thought it was real? I'm the one who said it was a different Frank McCourt. Exact words.

"I'm curious about that McCourt reference, though. Who thought it was
real?"

that was nearly as silly as navigator's Frank McCourt wikipedia citation that he thought was real.

they also have separate columns for 2b's, 3b's and HR's, but they all count as Hits. I promise you IBB totals are included as BB's, the IBB walk category is just a sub-set of it.

I believed you the first time.

It is a little bit of an oddity in not being needed anywhere else. Without doubles, triples and HRs you can't do SLG and total bases.

I guess I thought it was needed for PA or something.

It's just informational though, fine.

as for the #8 hitters (or occassionally #7), here's the IBB leaderboard

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=...

it's a who's who list of top sluggers in the game, probably Vizquel & Schneider at #16 with 9 IBB's were #8 hitters.

Awful lot of moving parts to that from Milwaukee's standpoint. Also, I imagine that trading your best player is a sure way for the Brewers to kill the goodwill they got in the community for making the playoffs. I could see Hardy for Cain as a legit rumor. Trading 2 cheap, organizationally controlled All Star position players for a pitcher will get Doug Melvin killed up there.

AZ Phil rules.

Phil-- which do you think is more likely:

1. Re-signing Dempster

2. Re-signing Wood

3. Both

4. Neither

And, just for fun, what kind of year does Fukudome have next season?

thanks for all your work, Phil.

ROMERO

last year because there were no left-handed top of the order guys on the open market. This year there are a couple, so I really don't expect the Roberts rumors to resurface. The Cubs will likely concentrate any extra FA money on one, maybe two left-handed bats. That means...

Mark Teixeira
Adam Dunn
Rafael Furcal
Orlando Hudson
Milton Bradley
Bobby Abreu
Raul Ibanez

Garret Anderson
Ken Griffey Jr.
Jim Edmonds

My guess is the pitching looks pretty similar.

Dempster, Z, Harden, Lilly, Marquis

a stable of Marshall, Samardzija, Wells, Gaudin, M. Atkins, R. Hill, Angel Guzman, and maybe a FA vet waiting in the wings.

Pen of Wood, Marmol, one FA signing, then some assortment of the guys above along with Cotts, Wuertz, Hart, etc...

Ascanio could come around and really contribute to the bullpen as well.

But I don't expect the Cubs to be involved in the Teixera bidding. Trying to sign Teixera before trading Lee would be very difficult and risk. Trying to trade Lee before signing Teixera would be extremely risky. Trading Lee while getting equal value in return would be very difficult in and of itself.

Ascanio could come around and really contribute to the bullpen as well.

like I said: Cotts, Wuertz, Hart, etc...

as for signing Teixeira, here's what I wrote in the previous thread:

----------


the problem and why the chances of this happening are somwhere between
0 and 0.5% are that to pull it off, you need to sign Teixeira first
because you can't trade Lee away and then hope Teixeira agrees to sign.
So if you do sign Teixeira, you then are banking on finding another
team to make a deal, assuming they take the contract or most of it and
that Lee will agree to all of it.

 

Our best and most likely option is Milton Bradley on a 1 or 2 yr deal (preferably 1 yr).

- He bats Left handed in the middle of the lineup.
- Can play CF or RF (in the event Fuku can't recover)
- He can be had for a ST deal in the event Pie and/or Fuku can recover.
- We'd only need him for 80-100 games (which is all he is good for) since we have Sori Fuku, Pie, Reed Johnson and DeRo who can all man the OF.
- Is realistic since they can't trade most of our players (no trade clauses) and shouldn't blow the team up (we won 97 games).

Bradley had a huge year last year. I'm fairly certain he will bring at least 3/27.BARE MINIMUM. I'd be all for getting him. I was all for getting him last offseason. But Milton might very well break LouPA's hip at any moment next season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bradlmi01.shtml

I'll be surprised if Texas lets him go to be honest, but he was still injured for a good bulk of the season and that huge year was thanks a lot to their ballpark.

But 2 years with a 3 yr option is certainly reasonable for him... if you don't mind a little crazy.

AZ-Phil, did I read that correctly: That Fukudome has 4 minor league options?

Because if he starts next year like he finished this one, it seems like Iowa could be a serious possibility to work out his swing.

If we sign a LH bat for RF, how good a CF is Fuku?

AZ-Phil, did I read that correctly: That Fukudome has 4 minor league options?

Well... he hasn't used any, has he?

Fukudome would be a solid CF, but, imo, not nearly as good as Pie would be.

I'd give Milton 1 year, 8MM or at most 2/15. Worst case we live with Pie/Johnson in CF and Fuku/DeRo/Hoffpauir in RF until the trade deadline.

milton's sick of 1 year deals.

he wants someone to pick up that risk and run with it. i don't blame him, really. he mentioned stability as well as how his numbers stack up to others vs. risk in a few articles.

that said, i think that pretty much makes him an AL player.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-cubs-marm...

minor injuries for marmol in a car accident...

-------

Marmol said in an e-mail to The Associated Press that the air bag deployed and he only suffered a cut and an “inflammation” of his forehead.

“Out of precaution they did different studies on my body, and I don’t have any kind of serious injury,” he wrote.

-------

I dunno...

Spine-related problems (back and neck) often are not apparent immediately after an auto accident and can first show up days or weeks afterwards -- and sometimes become long-term, chronic conditions. (Can you back me up on this one, Dr. Hecht?)

With his twisting, slinging pitching motion, I'd hate to have a back injury thrown into the mix.

My first thought was of Roberto Clemente, who was involved in an auto accident in Puerto Rico early in his career and suffered from back and neck problems thereafter. Really affected his performance adversely for the first four years following the accident (and continued to bother him thereafter, though obviously not enough to derail his wonderful career).

Hopefully this is the last we ever hear of any problems related to this.

yup

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/spor...

The Cubs began spacing out his starts following his next outing, resulting in only two regular season starts after Sept. 11th, including a five-inning, 115-pitch start against Milwaukee on Sept. 18th. If Harden has to undergo some arthroscopic surgery to clean out the shoulder, he could return by early May.

If the Cubs knew he'd be ready by then, they'd likely pick up the option. In a more unlikely scenario, they could also decline the option and make Harden arbitration-eligible, in which case he could make even more than $7 million, based on his career numbers (41-20, 3.23 earned-run average) and today's inflated salaries for starting pitchers.

Either way, Harden is the Cubs property in '09.

I'm shocked to learn Paul Sullivan doesn't read TCR.

Harden is Prior part 2.

Send him on his way.

If Harden has to undergo some arthroscopic surgery to clean out the shoulder, he could return by early May.
--------------
Absurdly speculative. While he's at it, Sully would be more practical to suggest Harden change his jersey to #22.

1) did he throw a dart at a calendar to come up with May?
2) clean out? c'mon, cut the bs...can't he do better than that? Why not speculate on the entire encyclopedia of shoulder injuries/surgeries?

It's a theme I've gone over so many times...I'd say any estimate would be more useful if there is a diagnosis, and the results of a diagnostic workup if any was done.

Haven't heard anything other than Harden had a cortisone shot at the end of August. They didn't report a diagnosis that led to that treatment back then either (they didn't report the cortisone shot until a few weeks after it was given). Certainly we haven't heard about an MRI or arthrogram, or even why one wasn't done. Nice if he would do some timely and factual reporting.

Is it the Cubs again being non-transparent? Harden does have the right to privacy but if they don't want to disclose info, just say so. I hate this sloppy info speculation stuff.

I can't wait for pitchers and catchers.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-rene...
pretty much how I'd breakdown the awards...

i still dont get the maurer AL MVP talk...i understand the thinking, but i don't know why the conclusion doesn't make them bust out laughing at the result.

that's because you think good-hitting catchers, shortstops, second basemen aren't a luxury...

no, i find nothing much extraordinary about what he's done.

the guy played top tier D...no argument there at all. moving on...

536 ab, 176 hits, 31 doubles, 4 triples, 9 homers, 98 runs, 85 rbi, 1sb, .413 ob%, .451 slugging...hitting 3rd.

hey, i believe D is important, but not THAT important.

solid batting is nice, but maurer's done nothing special there, imo.

this is the MVP award.

-edit-

i meant to put in the ob%/slugging in there on the first go around and just added it. sorry...that stinks of cherry picking stats if not corrected to show the guy has a strength in drawing walks.

it's not just his defense, it's that he provides incredibly more offense than any other catcher in the AL.

average AL catcher: 258/322/393 - 715 OPS

Mauer: 328/413/451 - 864 OPS

149 OPS difference

I don't feel like looking through all the other candidates but I'm guessing only Hamilton at center field gave his team that much of an advantage, but his defense wasn't as good or as valuable plus the ballpark.

For the saber-minded folks, Mauer leads in WARP3

Mauer - 11.8 , Pedroia - 10.4, Arod 10.1, Sizemore - 9.7, Hamilton 9.4, Youklis - 9.3

Halladay at 10.1 and Lee at 10.6

yeah, but he's not taking on every other catcher...he's taking on everyone.

hell, i'd take pedroia over him.

i'm even leaving out the "will of the voters" in this and just taking it by what i'd consider a MVP candidate.

he's not taking on anyone, he's being more valuable than any other player in the AL. When your the best player at your position in the league, that means the other players on your team don't have to outpace their peers as much.

It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league.

 

what makes dlee a decent fit for the cubs doesnt make dlee a mvp candidate in the NL

Ugh.

That is not AT ALL what Rob said.

The true comparison, instead of your straw man of DLee as MVP, would be Soto has NL MVP.

Soto has been at least mentioned in mvp talks not because he is one of the best players in the NL, but because, as a catcher, he brings so much more value than someone with the same numbers at first base, or really any other position. The exact same thing can be said abut Mauer.

you're missing the point of what i was trying to say there.

when i think MVP i don't care how few catchers played as well as maurer...especially when he puts up numbers like that in the #3 slot of a lineup.

i don't put as much of maurer's value on the fact vmart and posada sucked this year. i don't care how many crappy catchers out there are diluting the pool of other catchers. his positional value is great, but i don't put that much value on it.

hell, if i had to pick an AL position-scarcity type i'd go for the 2nd baseman for BOS over the catcher from MIN for MVP.

you're missing the point of what i was trying to say there.

Maybe... but your comment above clearly missed Rob's point, or you would have never compared the situation to Lee winning the MVP.

if i had to pick an AL position-scarcity type i'd go for the 2nd baseman for BOS over the catcher from MIN for MVP.

AL second basemen: Pedroia, Kinsler, Roberts, Iwamura, Ramirez, etc.

Not exactly a scarcity of talent there.

AL catchers: Mauer and .... ???

i wasn't even attempting to link DLee to the MVP.

"It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league."

i was mostly responding to that attempting to say what makes dlee a good fit for the cubs has little to do with the mvp.

maybe if mauer brought more with his bat i'd be more impressed.

and i covered the 2nd part of your comment already and how i handicap it into my personal belief on the mvp.

i wasn't even attempting to link DLee to the MVP.

Huh? Lets review what you said:

what makes dlee a decent fit for the cubs doesnt make dlee a mvp candidate in the NL

Yup... no link at all. Oh wait...

you just had the person who wrote it explain it to you.

I wonder how narrow these replies can get...

very...they already experimented with it earlier in the year.

Antidisestablishmentarianism

?

smaller

extra small

more smaller still?

Lets get small

Window Limbo

your point about Posada and VMart are certainly a valid concern, but even with them catchers would likely be the lightest hitting position in the league, although the disparity might not be quite as big. Actually VMart in 2007 (879) and Shoppach in 2008(865) had nearly identical OPS numbers.

 

Soto has been at least mentioned in mvp talks not because he is one of
the best players in the NL, but because, as a catcher, he brings so
much more value than someone with the same numbers at first base, or
really any other position. The exact same thing can be said abut Mauer.

just to split hairs, but Soto is mentioned in MVP talks because he was one of the best players in the NL. I mean, I don't want to someone winning the MVP because who wasn't the best player or one of the best players. The reason he's one of the best is because of the value he brings at the position though.

I'm sure that is what you meant...

what makes dlee a decent fit for the cubs doesnt make dlee a mvp candidate in the NL

holy shit, where did you get that from what I said? maybe you meant what makes Derrek Lee a decent fit for the Cubs doesn't make Geovany Soto or Mark DeRosa the MVP, but I'd argue that Soto/DeRosa were probably one and two for Cubs MVP, although a little short for the NL MVP. 

i was trying to say i don't see the 2 as related.

i put a very different value on the things DLee does for the team vs. what maurer does for the AL vs. his peers. i don't see a relation between the things i argued for earlier about DLee's value to team construction being a huge part of how i'd handicap MVP voting.

...and it's my reply to

"It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league."

yeah, I get what you replied to and I guess I worded it a little poorly, but how you ever extracted that I was saying something about Derrek Lee for MVP is well..um, interesting.

But I assume you've gotten the point by now that if you're gonna argue that you can live with Derrek Lee's bat at first base (which was essentially league average) because of the offensive production we've gotten from Soto and DeRosa and the CF platoon, it's the same reason that makes Joe Mauer one of the most valuable players in the AL. Getting such a huge advantage at one position (doesn't matter what position) allows a team to have lesser players at other spots around the diamond.

obviously you have a different opinion on what an MVP is, but it really is pretty much the exact same argument...

i never said you said anything about dlee for mvp.

"It's actually the exact argument on why you think the Cubs can live with Derrek Lee. It's because they have better players at 2b and C and possibly CF then most of the rest of the league."

THAT...is where my reply came from.

1- it's not my argument if you want to link those 2 situations
2- assuming it is my argument, my reply would be "what makes dlee a decent fit for the cubs doesnt make dlee a mvp candidate in the NL"

i'm saying the 2 situations are so unrelated to me that i wouldn't connect them together.

i've also said as an aside that i don't even remotely buy into mauer being a MVP candidate because his peers at his position suck compared to him. that stuff might matter at contract time and it is a slight consideration for mvp voting, but i think it's not THAT important when you stack his good, but unspectacular bat vs. guys who produced a lot more with their bats. maurer hit 3rd most of his time and put up some pretty average numbers for a #3 hitter...singles and walks, aside.

it's amazing that you can't see the correlation between the two situations...so be it.

it's not like it was just a down year for catcher's, they're historically the lowest on the totem pole just about every year.

as for #3 hitters, which certainly is an odd thing to base merit on, Mauer was 2nd in OPS among the 5 who qualified in the AL, 4th out of 7 if you lower the bar to 400 PA's. He also lead #3 hitters in runs which is just about as important as RBI's.

You're either scoring runs or bringing them in.

Nonetheless, position scarcity is still very real and it's still incredibly valuable if you're a good-hitting shortstop or catcher.

it's not that i can't see your view as much as i don't place nearly as much value on it.

i place so little value on it that im not even close to the camp of people that would consider mauer a MVP.

i see that you place a value on it and i get your side...it's just that i don't buy into it. evidently i'm doing a piss poor job expressing how much i don't buy into it.

Isn't it really a question of whether the MVP is the most valuable player in the league (ie...best player that year) or most valuable player in relation to his team?

It seems like some are saying that there were better players than Mauer this year, so he doesn't deserve the award. Others say that Mauer was one of the best in the league, but was more valuable to the Twins than any other candidate was to his team.

What does MLB say about this ridiculous award?

Yup Pujols for MVP, the cards wouldn't have made the playoffs withou....

what?

The cards finished 3rd? Holy cow. That there is some value.

Remember a couple years ago, when Pujols didn't get the award, and he said that an MVP is someone who leads his team to the playoffs? I wonder if he'll refuse the award.

and I'm sure you think Andre Dawson should give back his award, right?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs...

10. Bury the curse: The Cubs players spent much of the season downplaying talk of the alleged curse, only to have Cubs brass bring out a Greek priest to spread holy water in their dugout the day of the start of the playoffs. What kind of a show of faith in the high-priced team was that? Piniella and the players were blind-sided by the stunt.

"Bury the curse"

What would hacks like you report and ask the players about for the entire year then?

Sully's been off the wagon for too long again, apparently.

can you explain Super Two status and why Theriot doesn't qualify?

explanation I read and I guess I'm confused by top 17%
A: A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster

well I started updating it and did my best adding up service time for the guys who got shuttled back and forth this year. The players who were with the team for the full season were easy enough and the option years coincide with AZ Phil's info from this piece.

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 12:17am.

can you explain Super Two status and why Theriot doesn't qualify? explanation I read and I guess I'm confused by top 17% A: A

==================================

ROB G: Ryan Theriot (2+118), Angel Guzman (2+095), Sean Marshall (2+087), and Carlos Marmol (2+084) are eligible to qualify as a "Super Two" for salary arbitration purposes post-2008 because all four accrued at least 86 days of MLB ST in 2008, but historically, players with less than 2+120 MLB ST usually don't qualify among the top 17%, although that could change this year. Of the four, Theriot is the one most-likely to qualify.

I guess I should have listed the four as being eligible to be a "Super Two" post-2008, so I will change that.

no worries, I was just curious about the whole thing

check your email, I had a question about service time on some players I was hoping you could answer

if that 2.120 holds true as the cutoff, that would be pretty sweet with Soto who is at 1.096 at the moment (I believe). That means Cubs will still have him at auto-renewal prices after 2009.

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 11:53am.

if that 2.120 holds true as the cutoff, that would be pretty sweet with Soto who is at 1.096 at the moment (I believe). That means Cubs will still have him at auto-renewal prices after 2009.

========================

ROB G: Best as I can determine, there are about 85 players who have at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time, with at least 86 days of MLB ST accrued during the 2008 season, meaning the top 14 (top 17%) of that group will probably qualify for salary arbitration this off-season as a "Super Two":

1. Fausto Carmona, RHP (CLE) - 2+169
2. Willy Aybar, INF (TB) - 2+153
3. Shawn Hill, RHP (WAS) - 2+153
4. Mike Napoli, C (LAA) - 2+151
5. Jack Taschner, LHP (SF) - 2+146
6. Chris Duncan, OF (STL) - 2+144
7. Angel Pagan, OF (NYM) - 2+144
8. Luke Scott, OF (BAL) - 2+144
9. Cole Hamels, LHP (PHI) - 2+143
10. Tim Byrdak, LHP (HOU) - 2+137
11. Melky Cabrera, OF (NYY) - 2+133
12. Jered Weaver, RHP (LAA) - 2+129
13. Shaun Marcum, RHP (TOR) - 2+128
14. B. J. Upton, OF (TB) - 2+126
- LIKELY CUT-OFF POINT -
15. James Shields, RHP (TB) = 2+125
16. Scott Baker, RHP (MIN) - 2+120
17. Ryan Theriot, INF (CUBS) - 2+118

Byrdak, Pagan, and Taschner will likely just get non-tendered, and Aybar, Hill, Duncan, and Scott could get traded or could possibly be non-tendered, but the others (Carmona, Napoli, Hamels, Cabrera, Weaver, Marcum, and Upton, plus Shields if he were to qualify) should get themselves a nice pay day one year earlier than they might otherwise have anticipated...

So it looks like the Cubs lucked out with Theriot, although the 2+125 MLB Service Time cut-off for "Super Two" arbitration rights is typical.

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