Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

For the second year in a row, Bill James has ranked the Cubs in the lower third in his top young talent inventory. Last year, the Cubs were 29th, this year they jumped all the way to 26th. He didn't even have the decency to rank Geovany Soto in the top 25 players under 30.

Bastard.

Here's the top 25:
1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24
My understanding, like all things James, is that he uses some statistical formula that incorporates age along with minor league and major league numbers and it doesn't seem like there's any room for defense in there (he uses Runs Created). Soto is probably still being penalized for just having one good minor league season, while some of the others on that list had more distinguished minor league careers. McCann would finish ahead of him just on the strength of already having a couple of plus major league seasons under his belt.
As for the Cubs 26th ranking, well don't fret, James has a ready-made excuse for the Cubs.

As James has noted often, “Competitive teams don’t have as much room to let young players thrash around, and consequently most of the top teams don’t show as having a lot of young talent. They may have the young talent; it just isn’t in the lineup yet.”

I believe James gives the players letter grades but I think you need to get the Bill James 2009 Handbook for that. So I'll give you my own...
Geovany Soto - A
Carlos Marmol - A
Rich Harden - A-
Carlos Zambrano - B+
Jeff Samardzija - B+
Felix Pie - B
Rich Hill - B-
Sean Marshall - B-
Micah Hoffpauir - B-
Angel Guzman - B-
Chad Gaudin - C+
Ryan Theriot - C
Casey McGehee - C-
Kevin Hart - C-
Ronny Cedeno - D+
I used the tried and true tested, "off-the-top-of-my-head" algorithm made famous by anyone who has ever gotten in an argument at a sports bar.

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Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Of course his best player under 30 is a one dimensions tub of lard. oh, he sucks too.

Fielder is a horribly incomplete player, who, when not hitting home runs is rendered useless.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

well can't say I agree with that, Fielder scored 109 runs in 2007 and 86 last year. 9.1 RC/G in 2007, down to 6.8 in 2008, but that's still pretty good. At age 24, he's got a bright future...as a DH.

If I was making a subjective list, I'd put Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and then Lincecum in the top 3.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

and where's ryan howard? Only 1 season with a OPS+ under Fielder's career 130.

And he still managed to out-OPS Fielder.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

you get knocked down considerably for age and Howard will be 29 next year.

Howard's RC/G since 2005: 7.2, 11, 8.2, 6.4

Fielder since 2006: 5.8, 9.1, 6.8

I do have issues with calling it a Young Talent Inventory if he's going to completely ignore defense.

 

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

This is a rather ridiculous enterprise. Let Bill James be more accurate and call it the top 30 players under 26. If you are indeed penalized for being closer to 30, as clearly seems to be the case, then the rubrik James presents is worthless.

I'd find an top 5 for each age a more interesting list. Give me the top 5 players that are aged 27, then we'll have a more interesting list.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but is Dustin Pedroia really that good? I just attributed most of his hype to the fact that he plays for the Red Sox.

And Joakim Soria seems a little out of place among this group. Again, perhaps because of the team he plays for, although in the opposite way from Boston.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Dustin Pedroia doesnt have the blow me away stats but he more than makes up for it with...wait for it...

SCRAP

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Nice to see you give Ronnie the "+". An outright D would have been harsh.

I am shocked and stunned -- Ryan Harvey and Mark Pawelek didn't make James' list?

It's a sham of a mockery of a travesty.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

he got the + only because he's 25 (26 next year).

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Do you realize that there was not one homosexual on that panel that made that list?

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

This list is a total joke. No Kinsler? Fielder over Han-Ram, Wright and Howard? I find it hard to believe that James even watched Baseball this year.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Wow... Matt Kemp - #7?

Interesting...

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Surprising that Pie gets a B. He's above average defensively, but the rest of his game has been a C at best.

And Guzman's thrown so few innings I think a B- is generous, too.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

not like I'm going to really spend a lot of time defending my rankings, I pretty much looked at their age and how I think they have done and willl do. But Pie will be 24 next year, there's still a lot of potential in there and he did look better at the plate in September.

Guzman will be 27 next year, but just based on "stuff' I'd give him an A-. He gets knocked for being older and the injury problems.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

26th? Doesn't Bill know Tim Wilken has run our last three drafts?

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

One result of which is that Daytona won the Florida State League championship. James wasn't looking at high-A talent.

I just looked at the list of draftees in the three years (2003-2005) prior to Wilken's arrival, and among draftees actually signed I recognized the names of three major leaguers, two of whom (Gallagher and Blevins) are with Oakland. The lone Cub product of those three years is Sean Marshall, who frequently comes up in trade rumors.

The barren-ness of those three drafts is the reason the Cubs were low on talent at the double- and triple-A level this past season. The talent void was camouflaged at Iowa by a group of well-traveled players who could hit but are not really prospects.

The Cubs do tend to trade their younger players, with a lot of encouragement from bloggers. They have already traded Josh Donaldson, one of Wilken's five first-round and supplemental-round picks.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

If MLB put all the players back into a draft and conducted it this offseason, Fielder should be happy to go late first round. Absolutely not the best young player in the game. He might not even be No. 1 on a list called Pure Power Hitters Under 30, though an argument could be made.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

as I mentioned, it's really just a formula he uses based on the runs created stat and age, so there's not much use getting all bent over it.

But Fielder did slug .618 at age 23...

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Mpmz

That's a pretty distinguished list of players who were able to slug over .600 before they turned 25.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

You're right, I suppose the list is just poorly named. Runs Created before Age 30 or something like that would've been both more accurate and less attention-grabbing.

I have no doubt that he is an elite power hitter with Soriano-like team-carrying ability. Your Photoshop of the power of the man's bat sums it up perfectly.

With rumors of his availability, it's a shame there's zero chance he gets traded to the Cubs.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

I wish I could take credit for that one....stole it from the Onion.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

he doesn't carry that team. he doesn't do nearly enough to carry a team. He's a one dimensional player.

In order to carry a team you need to be a complete hitter/player. Soriano is that.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

exactly what other dimensions did Manny Ramirez bring the Dodgers?

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

terrible example Rob. Manny is one of the most complete hitters in our lifetime.

Not to mention the lift his presence gave the dodgers.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

well thanks for not answering my question, but exactly what are the dimensions that you speak of and which ones does Manny have over Fielder (power, speed, contact, etc?)

this just sounds like another I hate this guy rant, I'm not going to bother being objective about it

   Ramirez Fielder
AB/HR  14.4  15.7
BB/PA .135  .113
ISOP .279 .255
XBH 72.1  72.3
BB/SO  .73 .59

For XBH, I just did an average skipping Fielder's 2005 season and Manny's first two seasons. If you take out Fielder's 2006 season when he was just 22, those numbers are going to look even a lot damn closer.

I'm just curious what complete here is. Besides hitting for a better batting average (about 30 pts for his career), they look about the same to me. 

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

You asked what Manny brought to the Dodgers. Remember that. Cause you cannot call sample size when I post this:

Manny with the Dodgers: .396 .489 .743 219

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

you're clearly confused...

I'll make it simple, exactly what's the difference between Manny's offensive skillset and Fielder's and why can't Fielder "carry a team"?

I'll answer for you...not much and to "carry a team" you need to hit a shitload of home runs and XBH's which Fielder does in spades.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

no you need to do more than just that. Adam Dunn doesn't carry a team. Ryan Howard doesn't carry a team. Dave Kingman never carried a team.

you need to be a complete hitter. also it HELPS if you are a good fielder (not a necessity but if you lack a bit with the bat but make great defensive plays, you team will rally around you). I know this is not the case for Manny. But when a guy like soriano nails the go ahead run at the plate, it pumps up the team.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

Ryan Howard doesn't carry a team.

and we're done...

Howard's going to likely win the MVP because he "carried" the Phils in Sept, or so it will be perceived by the voters.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

I clearly used a bad example there BUT!

it was far more than just home runs. he hit .352 that month with 31 hits. 20 of which were not home runs.

point?

Point being that he was playing at an exceptional level all around.

Re: Why Does Bill James Hate The Cubs?

so what, Fielder with a career .278 BA couldn't possibly get hot for a few months? He hit .333 last September with a .733 SLG, .316 with a .600 SLG this September

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