The official Elias Rankings are out and MLB.com does their usual job of half-assery by not giving out the full list, but at least we know Joe Mauer is the top AL catcher. Gee thanks!
The ESPN free agent tracker gives the listings for those that have filed so far and it looks like SI.com has finally come through with the full list of potential free agents. For those unaware of the system or need a refresher, Elias has come up with some rather archaic ranking system that takes the last two years worth of stats and ranks every player in baseball...mostly relying on counting stats (decent explanation of the point system can be found near the end of this mlb.com article or read through this Tigers fans blog who is trying to reverse engineer their rankings). The importance of it is that MLB uses it to figure out free agent compensation. A type "A" player that is offered arbitration by his former team and is signed by a new team will net his old club a first round draft pick and a supplemental draft pick between the first and second round. A type "B" free agent nets his old team just a supplemental pick. Also, the first 15 picks in the draft are protected, so a team drafting in one of those slots that signs a type "A" free agent would give up their second round pick and so on.
For the Cubs...
Ryan Dempster - A
Bob Howry - A
Kerry Wood - A
Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Henry Blanco, Daryle Ward and Jon Lieber weren't in the top 40% of their positions. It's important to note that for the Elias Rankings there are essentially five positions - starting pitcher, relief pitcher, catcher, outfielders/first basmen(and DH for the AL), and infielders (2B, SS, 3B).
Bobby Abreu - A
Raul Ibanez - A
Mark Teixeira - A
Orlando Hudson - A
Derek Lowe - A
A.J. Burnett - A
Brian Fuentes - A
C.C. Sabathia - A
Derek Lowe - A
Milton Bradley - B
Randy Wolf - B
Garrett Anderson - B
Milton Bradley - B
Joe Beimel - B
Rafael Furcal - no compensation
If you're wondering how Bob Howry is a Type A free agent, remember it's two years worth of rankings and there are a lot of relief pitchers in baseball....apparently 80% of them worst than Howry. If you're wondering how Furcal isn't rated at all, he's only played 172 games over two seasons and is being compared to every second basemen, shortstop and third basemen in the league which sure doesn't seem fair. Of course, it's not fair to group center fielders with first basemen and corner outfielders either. The non-ranking Furcal will certainly boost his stock a bit in the free agent market as will Bradley's "B" status.
The rankings for Dempster and Wood are good things for the Cubs. Since they want to keep both pitchers, it's a no-brainer to offer them arbitration even at the risk of paying a potentially higher one year salary if they do accept it. Since both players will certainly be signing multi-year deals, there's really no risk of them getting inflated arbitration prices. And if they end up losing them, the Cubs will be compensated handsomely. The Type "A" for Howry though is unfortunate. If he was a Type "B" free agent, a team probably wouldn't hesitate to sign Howry, even if he was offered arbitration by the Cubs, since they wouldn't lose any draft picks. The Cubs though could gain one in the supplemental round. Think Jason Kendall last year, a Type "B" free agent that the Cubs weren't planning to bring back, but since it didn't cost the Brewers a draft pick they signed him before the arbitration deadline and the Cubs received an extra supplemental round pick. The same happened with Juan Pierre and the Dodgers the year before which turned into a key trading chip (Josh Donaldson) in getting Rich Harden. WIth Howry a Type "A" free agent and assuming he's not coming back to the Cubs, there's a good chance he won't be signed until after the deadline to offer arbitration (December 1st) as teams will not want to risk having to give up a potential first or second round pick (or possibly third if they go on a Type A spending spree). That leaves the ball in the Cubs court and risk offering Bob Howry arbitration and the chance that he'll accept it, which would likely mean a one-year salary a lot higher than the Cubs would want to pay for Home Run Howry's services. As Arizona Phil in the comments explained, the Cubs could get away with offering arbitration to Howry in hopes of still getting draft picks and if he does end up accepting it, the Cubs could just release him in spring training at a severe discount, something the Padres did recently with Todd Walker and a loophole I'm sure the MLBPA will be sure to get removed in the next CBA negotiations.
If the Cubs do dip into the free agents waters, their first round pick at #32 is certainly not protected but low enough that it's not something they need to really worry about it. If you're wondering why they're picking #32 when there are only 30 teams, three ballclubs (Nats, Mariners, Yankees) get an extra first round pick for not signing their first round picks last year. And if Dempster, Wood or Howry were to sign somewhere else the Cubs would likely get some extra supplemental draft picks and improve their spot in the first round.The Cubs have so far expressed a desire for left-handed hitting and bullpen arms although indications have been they prefer the trade market over the free agent market but that is all subject to change. We'll see what they do about a left-handed middle of the order bat but guys like Alan Embree, Brian Shouse and Joe Beimel might be interesting relief options as Type "B" free agents.
Comments
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
My vote is Wood, Bradley, Fuentes and one from Dempster, Lowe, Sabathia. Oliver Perez is tempting, but I think he may suffer from Ronny Cedeno disease.
I'm a big Kerry Wood fan, but there's something inherently flawed in a system that makes him a Type A free agent and the guy who led the AL in OPS a type B.
Is I-Rod looking for a starters position (and salary?), he wouldn't be a bad backup plan for Blanco (or vice-versa).
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
it's a weird system undoubtedbly, but it's weighted more towards counting stats and with only 187 games over two seasons, Bradley won't due well compared to all the other OF's, 1bmen and DH's in the AL, although I'm not sure what they do with his NL numbers from 2007.
You would think the same for Kerry, but the pitching system takes into account more percentage stats from what I understand.
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/07/almost...
that's not the exact formula, but a rough approximation
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
"Wood, Bradley, Fuentes, and one from Dempster, Lowe, Sabathia"
If they're going to spend that kind of FA cash, I skip Bradley and Fuentes and take Abreu instead. I figure Sabathia is just wishful thinking. Dempster is most likely and Lowe is maybe within the price range.
I for one think Wood and Dempster will both be back. I also think the Cubs get another "bat" via trade, though I'm not sure it will be the sort of player any of us are hoping for--I'd love for it to be Hermida, but I don't see that one happening.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Abreu doesn't make the team any better, and that's a whole lot of money to pay to just add balance to the lineup. Bradley plays good defense, and hits better than DeRosa. He may not stay healthy, OK, he won't stay healthy, but with DeRosa, Johsnon, Fukudome and Pie in house we have alternatives like we did with Edmonds last year.
I should have said that you sign Fuentes with an eye towards moving Wood back into the rotation in 2010.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
bradley is looking a multi-year deal and his body is in pretty banged up shape.
i dont think anyone but an AL team with a DH slot can afford to give this guy 12-15m a year multi-year.
the guy hasn't played a full season...well, ever i think...2001 maybe.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
141 games in 2004, 126 games in 2008, 101 in 2003. No other seasons in triple digits.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
1. Wood ever being an effective starter again for more than a few games at a time is a real long shot, so I certainly wouldn't make any free agent signings with the hopes of putting Wood in the rotation.
2. Bradley has been a very similar player to Abreu in his career, but with more injury risks and personality issues. Bradley's never hit more than 22 homeruns in a season, has never stolen more than 17 bases, and has never hit more than 34 doubles. The only thing Bradley really has on Abreu is he's coming off a good in year in which he played a lot of games in Alrington and he's younger. I'm not opposed to a Bradley signing, but I don't see that Bradley does much for the Cubs that Abreu, who is consistently an OBP source and a respectable base stealer as well as all-around good hitter, couldn't. I would agree with you on Bradley being the better fielder, but only if we're assuming both are relatively healthy.
I'm not sure what either of them hitting better than DeRosa has to do with anything. DeRosa would be playing 2B almost full-time. Fontenot and Pie probably stand to lose the most playing time if a big-name RF is brought in.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
1. Yeah, he's not on the John Smoltz plan - my bad. Good to know we have someone so in tune with Kerry Wood's situation posting here. Too bad you weren't advising for Hendry after 2003.
2. Over the last two years Bradley has out hit Abreu: At Home, On the Road, versus LHP, versus RHP. Essentially DeRosa hit as well as Abreu last year, and plays right field as well. If Fukudome is a total bust, or is taken out of the equation because he's in CF, then we effectively would replace Abreu with a Fontenaught/Cedeno platoon, which also will hit as well as Abreu, and probably give us about the same defense as DeRosa at 2nd. So, you give Abreu, a guy clearly in the decline stage of his career a big contract to steal a few more bases than Fontenot.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
depending on m.bradley to play CF is a crapshoot when you're talking about the loot he'd bring vs. his health. i'm not even talking about freak injuries...i'm talking about persistent lingering injuries effecting his play.
heck, counting on him to play RF in wrigley is another thing, too...he's not known for being a superman when it comes to playing the wall in any park, though he's not without his highlights in his early career.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Milton Bradley - the juice ain't worth the squeeze.
Jeremy Hermida for 2009!!!
I'll take Nick Markakis as a plan B...maybe O's will take Derrek Lee for him and throw in some awesome pitcher. I hear the Giants will trade Matt Cain/Alex Hinshaw for him...imagine what the O's will give us.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Markakis seems like a good plan A, actually, unless there's something I don't know about him (other than his stats, age, and salary; which all seem to make him a really desirable player to have).
That's a deal we could make, no?
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
I think there was a bit of sarcasm there. Derek Lee for Markakis and a good young pitcher?
When I first read it I thought he was suggesting Lee and a good young pitcher for Markakis.
I'd love to have Markakis. I do wonder what it would take to get that done. I suspect it wouldn't involve Lee.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
if you write for BCB, it's a trade they could make...in the real world, Markakis is pretty much untouchable.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
1. That bit of sarcasm was unnecessary; it's not like thinking Wood won't be starting is a minority position here. There are a lot of skeptics as far as Wood's health, I'm one of them, though I really like the guy and I would love to see him back.
2. Although Bradley clearly outhit Abrue in 2008, Milton Bradley's stats in 2007 came from a total of 61 games and only 244 plate appearances. Yes, his rate stats were better in 2007, but you're comparing 244 Bradley plate appearances to 699 Abreu plate appearances. I'm not even making a health argument here, I'm just pointing out the difference of 455 plate appearances. I like Fontenot and Cedeno and would be fine seeing the Cubs get more playing time and stashing away that money or spending it elsewhere (I just haven't seen much evidence yet that Lou is willing to give either one significant playing time). But if it came down to Bradley or Abreu for the same $ over the same years, I take Abreu. I have no idea who will get more money or more years on the market. As we've noted, Bradley has the health issues, Abreu has the age issues.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Well, you did imply that Bradley and Fuentes could be had for the same price as Abreu. And next time I give a rat's ass about the majority opinion will be the first.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Sorry. I thought I implied that Abreu could be had for less money than Fuentes and Bradley combined, but possibly more than Bradley. I see where that happened, though. If they're coming at the same price, it's a more difficult decision, but I probably still go with Abreu (if I've got to pick one or the other; I'd still be willing to go with Fontenot at 2nd and DeRosa in RF).
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
We'll have to see.
At the same price, I'd take Bradley. Better hitter, better fielder, better fit for the team.
I don't think they'll be the same price, though. I expect Abreu to get about 3 years and $40 million and Bradley 2 years and $20 million.
rooch hull
r.hill got lit up last night. also, ruben "remember me?" quevedo relieved him for 2.2ip.
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l135&t...
also handy...
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=chc
Re: rooch hull
Maybe Santo's not the only one who can't remember Ruben Quevedo.
Pat: Ron, tell us about Ruben Quevedo (of the Milwakee Brewers).
Ron: Well Pat, this kid reminds me a lot of a kid we used to have. Couple years ago...
Pat: Ron, Ruben Qu...
Ron: I swear, this guy looks *just* like him.
Pat: I believe you're thinking of Ruben Quevedo, Ronny.
Re: rooch hull
And that's why we all love Ron Santo.
m.bradley
i'm a bradley fan, btw...even his "attitude" doesn't bother me as much as some other guys out there who get less press than he does about attitude.
i think he's a great hitter and he sure as hell is NOT lazy or unmotivated, but he wants a multi-year deal and $$. i don't really see how a NL team can bet on a guy like that unless he finds himself in a situation where he has to start listening to 1-2 year deal offers.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
You can't produce if you can't stay on the field. I keep hearing Bradley outproduced Abreu last year. Really? Abreu knocked in 100 RBI and scored 100 runs. Bradley scored 78 and knocked in 77.
Those are career highs for Bradley, in fact its the first time he ever got to 70 RBI's in his career. That isn't a typo, first career 70 RBI year.
His injury history his attitude and his nothing great defense don't command the salary he will want.
Abreu is a proven RBI threat with outstanding plate vision. For his career, not one season but for his career, he has hit .316 with RISP, with a .439 OBP. And for his career has hit with RISP/2outs, .303 BA, .463 OBP.
Sure Abreu is getting older but the 34 year old body of Abreu is younger wear and tear wise than the 30 year old body of Bradley.
I would rather pay for a product that stays on the field and produces than one that doesn't. Plus Abreu's attitude is 10 times better than Bradley. Lets not forget Bradley has been nearly kicked off every MLB team has been a part of. And even in his so called good year last year he tried to attack the KC announcer. He is still bat shit crazy.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Bat a 35 year old Abreu behind a pitcher and Alfonso Soriano and see if he gets a 100 RBI's. Seriously, man, think.
The Cubs have adequate backup guys at center and right, so if Bradley gets hurt, or misses a day or three, it's not the end of the world. We played Reed Johnson, Felix Pie, Jim Edmonds and Fukudome in center last year and hit .290 .374 .484 with 101 RBI's. Swapping out Edmonds with Bradley is not going to make those numbers worse.
Abreu is well known for having a shitty 'me first' attitude, which attributes to his atrocious defense... did you notice who won the WS this year and who didn't make the playoffs? The Phillies didn't trade Abreu because they were trying to dump salaray.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/47294-bobby-abr...
So besides, knowledge and logic, this post was right on.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Right now reports have the Cubs not intending to make a competitive offer to Edmonds, though it's obviously still early. Take him out of that CF mix and last year's numbers go way down.
I don't think the major concern is that Bradley has minor injuries and only plays 125 games, but rather that he only plays 60-80 games as he did in 2001, 2005, and 2007.
"So besides, knowledge and logic, this post was right on."
Ease up, Neal. Did somebody kick your puppy today or what?
EDIT: Also, the poster in the link doesn't seem much more informed than Mike. He doesn't link to any box scores, videos, state dates or game scores, and makes approximate quantitative statements like "he must have done this 25 times." I don't really have a problem with you linking to a fan's opinions, just when you use them as if they were empirical evidence that disproves someone else's subjective judgments (MikeC's).
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
You want empirical evidence that he was a selfish player a clubhouse disruptance?
The 2006 Phillies trade him, replace him with Shane Victorino then go 36-22 the rest of the year to get into playoff contention. The next two years they win their division - something they never did with Abreu.
"Some critics say he takes too many pitches, particularly in clutch situations with runners on base. And, Abreu's preference to bat third when he might have been a perfect fit as a leadoff hitter in Philadelphia's lineup made him appear selfish."
The offensive stats actually don't support the ascertation that he only was good when the game wasn't on the line (actually it's the opposite, which I think is bad but a different argument).
But I don't really care about that stuff. What I care about is that he is old, that his power, patience, defense and speed are all declining. Let some other team think they're getting the guy that did so well in the HR derby. That player never existed.
For his career defensively he's 25 runs below average as a right fielder, according to BP, and trending down (Bradley -2 about the same rate, Fukudome +2, Derosa +5).
His WARP 1 over the last five years:
9.5
6.6
7.3
5.8
5.2
Bradley's over the last three:
3.1
3.6
7.0
It doesn't take a statistician to spot the trends...
Over the last 700 PA's the guy has essentially been Albert Pujols.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
You want empirical evidence that he was a selfish player a clubhouse disruptance?
The 2006 Phillies trade him, replace him with Shane Victorino then go 36-22 the rest of the year to get into playoff contention. The next two years they win their division - something they never did with Abreu.
For a guy who likes stats, you sure seem to have a strange definition of "empirical evidence."
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
The question was satirical.
The only evidence there is, though - Abreu goes- team does better.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
Correlation does not equal causation.
A lot of other things had to happen for the Phillies to improve since that trade, including better pitching, better all-around defense, and better hitting throughout the lineup. It helps that Victorino is a pretty good player. I'd gladly take him in RF or CF over Abreu or Bradley.
And yes. I did want some actual numbers and dates since the guy was claiming that Abreu did things in-game that were selfish--he could say exactly how many times he stole 2nd when his team was down by 5 runs and their number 4 hitter was at the plate, etc.
I see your point that Abreu could have attitude problems just as Bradley could, but I think it says a bit more that Bradley's problems have been more than just the focus of a few annoyed fans. I'm less concerned about Bradley's personality than the fact he's only played in the 100s of games 3 times his career, and only once has he played 140 or more games. He'd help the offense when he was healthy, but if he's only healthy for 75 games, you're only getting about half a player. It's probably not an issue, as the Cubs are rumored to not have much money to spend and thus won't have either RF after signing a couple of pitchers.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
I think that you and Mike C are missing the point.
The Cubs are one of the few teams that DON'T NEED Bradley to play 150 games. There probably isn't a better fit for him in MLB, just like there wasn't a better fit for Edmonds.
Re: Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
What's the difference between the 90 games that the Cubs would benefit from Bradley and the 70 that they wouldn't miss him?
I'm lost. I don't know why a GM would want to sign a guy to an expensive contract, even for one or two years, if he thinks he wouldn't miss not having him. I have clearly missed something. If he were cheap, then I think I'd understand, because then it's low risk low reward. But here isn't it high risk low reward? As in millions of dollars committed for what, apparently, would be only a marginal improvement in performance?
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