TCR Best of: Arizona Phil Votes Early and Often

Here on election day, I'm voting for none other than Arizona Phil. Anyone armed with so much information can't lead our country wrong. I can't wait for Chris Berman to get his post-election interview with Phil.

Strong commentary by Az Phil from the "Cubs make the First Trade of the Offseason" post. 

On newly acquired Ryan Buchter:

Ryan Buchter was drafted by the Nationals in the 33rd round of the 2005 draft, but he didn't sign, and instead went to a JC in New Jersey.

The Nats signed Buchter as a "Draft & Follow" in May 2006 (prior to the new CBA, clubs retained rights to their Rule 4 Draft picks until one week before the next year's draft), an indication that his draft stock had gone up after his year playing JC ball.

What probably happened is, the Cubs area scout in New Jersey "turned in" Buchter off his performance in JC in '06 ("turned in" being the term used by scouts when they recommend a player), but the Cubs never got a chance to draft him in 2006 because the Nats had already signed him as a DNF in May, although the Cubs probably kept his name on file for future reference should a trade be made with the Nationals at some future date.

Chances are the Nationals approached the Cubs about Matt Avery (you might have noticed that the Nats seem inordinately attracted to Cubs or ex-Cubs minor leaguers from Virginia) after watching him throw in the AFL in 2007, but the Cubs weren't ready to trade him then (he had been the closer at Peoria in 2006 and at Daytona in 2007 and appeared to possibly have a future as an MLB reliever). But then Avery took a step backward in 2008 (getting demoted from AA back to Daytona at one point), and so he may have asked to get traded. And for the Nats, getting Avery in a trade is better than selecting him in the Rule 5 Draft and having to deal with keeping him on their 25-man roster all next season.

Avery's "out" pitch is a sweeping curve ball that is far more effective against right-handed hitters than against lefty batters (which makes him something of a "ROOGY"), but he struggled with his command last season, and he really doesn't have the quality hard stuff to be much more than an MLB middle reliever (if that) even when he does throw strikes. Avery was a teammatre of Cubs prospects LHP Casey Lambert and OF Brandon Guyer at UVA.

As for Buchter, he should get a chance to compete with fellow LHPs Dustin Sasser, Zach Ashwood, and Chris Siegfried for one of the two lefty reliever gigs at Daytona in 2009, although he is a long-shot to make it to the big leagues.

The Cubs did "buy" an extra year of control by acquiring Buchter, since Avery is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for the first time this year and will be eligible to be a minor league FA after the 2011 season (if he isn't added to a 40-man roster), while Buchter won't be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for the first time until after next season, and he can't be a minor league FA until after the 2012 season.

--Arizona Phil

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On Petrick, Piggy, Oneiri Fleita and Danny Fatheree:

Carmen Pignatiello and Billy Petrick were outrighted to the minors after I posted the list of potential post-2008 Cubs minor league free-agents, and all three are eligible to be minor league FAs. Also, Danny Fatheree (Kerry Wood's catcher in HS) has re-signed with Cubs for 2009, although he actually served as a mentor-coach for the catchers (like Matt Cerda and converted infielder Robinson Chirinos) at Fitch Park in 2008.

Cubs Director of Player Personnel (and Player Development Director) Oneri Fleita will sometimes sign an older guy to a minor league player contract and then instead use the "player" as a "mentor." Besides the 30-year old Fatheree, other players who served as mentors in 2008 were 25-year old Mexican IF-OF Issmael Salas for a while at AA Tennessee (before he was loaned to a team in the Mexican League), 24-year old Dominican catcher Leonel Perez at Daytona (and Perez was recently released), and 25-year old Korean OF Min Kyu Sung at Peoria (Sung went wherever 18-year old Korean RHP Dae-Eun Rhee went, which means Sung returned to Fitch Park after Rhee underwent TJS in August).

Sung played college ball in the U. S. (at Nebraska-Omaha), so he was able to help Rhee adjust to the U. S. while the youngster was at Peoria, and he also helped 18-year old SS Hak-Ju Lee in the AZ Instructional League last month (where Sung was the 1st base coach and OF instructor). Sung will probably be retained for 2009, since the Cubs recently signed two more Korean players (RHP Jung-Soo Min and OF Jae-Hoon Ha).    

BTW, Danny Fatheree will make a fine minor league manager or roving catching instructor some day, IMO. He relates real well to young players, and he is a hard worker.

--Arizona Phil

==================================

On Ed Campusano:

As for Edward Campusano, I've rechecked his history, and in g=fact he cannot be a minor league FA until after the 2009 season because he spent the entire 2007 season on the MLB 60-day DL with the Tigers after undergoing TJS in April of that year (full seaszons spent on a major league roster do not count toward the seven seasons required to be a minor league FA), and he was not returned to the Cubs (outrighted back to AAA Iowa) until October (after the close of the 2007 MLB regular season). So I should not have had Campusano on the list. Campusano will be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft next month (on 12-11-08), however, and then he will be eligible to be a minor league FA after next season if he is not added to a 40-man roster by the close of the 2009 World Series. He will likely compete for a lefty reliever job at AAA Iowa in '09, although he could end up at AA Tennessee.

--Arizona Phil

 

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  • If he puts up Soriano numbers I will be ecstatic

    jacos 36 min 51 sec ago view
  • I think Javy is learning--but he's learning to make contact, not learning to lay off pitches out of the zone. A quick glance at his plate discipline numbers on Fangraphs shows that his contact rate is up, especially his contact rate out of the zone, but his swing rate is up too, especially his swing rate out of the zone.

    Charlie 1 hour 11 min ago view
  • I definitely saw ballpark radar guns go up to 102 on Kerry Wood back when he was still a starter, but who knows how accurate they were.

    Charlie 1 hour 24 min ago view
  • They've mentioned Henry Rodriguez (2013), Chris Carpenter, and Andrew Cashner as Cubs who have gone 100+. They said Rodriguez was tops at 100.8. Who knows before 2008?

    QuietMan 2 hours 48 min ago view
  • Regarding Heyward--

    He'll play regardless of what he does, just like Soriano played for seven years before they finally ditched him.

    What can they do? All I can think of is they can keep hiring and firing hitting coaches until they find one who can get him to stop hitting balls with the handle of the bat.

    (All those broken bats added to his paycheck is just a bit much.)

    VirginiaPhil 2 hours 49 min ago view
  • Lester will probably be all right.

    I think Arrieta might have added too much muscle preparing for that butt-naked ESPN photo shoot. Pitchers are supposed to be loose, not muscled up.

    Seriously.

    VirginiaPhil 2 hours 55 min ago view
  • I have basically written off Heyward for this year -- if you are working on major swing changes in late July, you are going to struggle. Hopefully, he can be more productive at the plate next year. It will be interesting to see what they do with him if the Cardinals keep winning and close the gap. Heyward is dead last in the NL in slugging and in the bottom 5 in OPS -- yet still has a positive WAR. Hunh.

    billybucks 2 hours 59 min ago view
  • Has anybody in a Cub uniform ever thrown a ball 103 before?

    VirginiaPhil 3 hours 2 min ago view
  • He certainly looks better, no doubt, and is a different player than what we saw when he first came up. Full credit to him for changing his approach and saving his career.

    But he has zero walks in 35AB since the break, and 10 in 251 AB all year. He does seem to be able to hit some pitches out of the zone, but, a guy with his pop should be drawing more walks. However, it's easy to forget he is still only 23, and probably trying to make an impact to prove he should be an everyday player.

    billybucks 3 hours 11 min ago view
  • The usual suspects, Molina and Wong. Gyorko drew a walk with two outs, none on. I recall us (particularly Szczur and Bryant) swinging at everything Familia threw.

    VirginiaPhil 3 hours 13 min ago view
  • Yup. Thanks Q

    The E-Man 3 hours 19 min ago view
  • QuietMan 3 hours 27 min ago view
  • I for one hope that Sosa comes back soon.

    Rob Richardson 3 hours 46 min ago view
  • O/B interesting you should mention that. Google ESPN Science Aroldis Chapman and you'll be treated to how his mechanics and delivery are possibly historic. It's the 120% of his body stretch plus the torque. They compare him to the Unit and NRyan.

    The E-Man 4 hours 25 min ago view
  • Amazing how much lower the production gets when Bryant runs into a mini-cold streak. He doesn't stay cold for long. If just one of Zobrist or, gulp, Heyward, gets hot, they oughta have one more really nice winning streak in them. Having a closer that you have absolute confidence in can't hurt.

    Old and Blue 5 hours 9 min ago view
  • I hope they hold onto Jimenez. Outfield depth is questionable, especially with McKinney, who struggled this year but still, gone.

    Old and Blue 5 hours 20 min ago view