Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Oh dear...things should be interesting this weekend.
- ESPN1000 is reporting that Peavy could be dealt by Monday with the Cubs and Braves being the most likely targets.
- The hot rumor early Thursday was the Braves offering Yunel Escobar and two prospects, but if that is the case, it sounds like Peavy would veto that deal.
“One of the things we will want to look at some point is,
'Who are you giving up? How much are you weakening your team to make
this deal?'” Axelrod said. “If Team X trades three starting pitchers
and a starting shortstop to get Jake Peavy, that lessens their chance
of being a successful team.”
That sure sounds good for the Cubs chances as the players that have been leaked so far are spare parts (Ceda, Marshall, Pie, Cedeno, Fontenot).
- That same article says the Cubs don't have much interest in Khalil Greene.
- USA Today says it's between Braves, Cubs and Dodgers and even gets confirmation from Jim Hendry that an offer has been made, which is rare for Hendry to confirm such things.
- A supposed Levine report that I almost feel bad for passing it along, so I hope someone can back this up. The Cubs grand plan would be to trade for Peavy in case Dempster walks, but to try and still resign Dempster somewhere in the 4/50 range. Kerry Wood would still be on the radar at one or two year deal at most.
- Jeff Passan at Yahoo says it comes down to which team will cough up their top pitching prospect.The Padres want Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs or Tommy Hansen from the Braves. Other Cubs that could be included are Sean Marshall, Donald Veal, Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno and Kevin Hart. Samardzija's no-trade clause is a limited no-trade clause according to Passan, which I did not know.
UPDATE: Bruce MIles tells Jeff Passan to fuck off. Well not that harsh, but Samardzija does have a full no-trade clause. No wonder no one else knew it was a limited NTC. Miles runs down some of the possible players that might go in a deal as well.
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#1 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Does anyone else agree that it feels like Wooder is just a complete after thought in this whole mess? I'm sorry, but give the man his props and pay him. I know "let marmol take over the closer role" but then who is going to be the lights out 8 inning guy, or guy who comes in when its 2nd and 3rd one out to get that key K. Moving Marmol back is a good idea, but do we really want Kevin Hart, DJ Jazzy Jeff, Guadin, Cotts and whoever else being out setup guys?
#3 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
i do and i'm kind of happy about it.
i like wood. i think he's got a nice career ahead of him closing. i just don't feel like the team should be throwing him 3+ years/8-10+m a year unless they got a 150m payroll or something.
i hope they end up keeping fontenot after all these winter trades. he's nothing special, but he's a starter-quality 2nd baseman and a nice lefty option off the bench.
#4 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Agreed. Wood was great and I'd love for him to be back but we can't throw the checkbook at him just got he finally had a good year again. He's a very limited asset at this point. He pitches less than three outs a game, on average, and you can't be ready to just throw a large, multi-year deal at him for that, without addressing other needs first. I'd love to see him come back on a one or two year deal, but if he can get more money elsewhere, good for him. The Cubs and he have to do what's best for themselves and hope those things work out together.
#8 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
normally I'd agree that it's unwise to throw big money at a closer, but to a high payroll club it's not a bad thing. For the Twins it's stupid to spend a fifth of their payroll on a closer, but to a team that is going to have a $140-150 payroll it makes sense especially if both Marshall and Samardzija are going to be in the Peavy trade. If both of them are gone that leaves only Marmol as a definite commodity. Otherwise Gaudin & Wuertz should be ok, but they're not setup guys, more like 6th-7th inning guys. Other than that you have a lot of potential in guys like Guzman, Ascanio, Cotts, Hart, but no sure things. Relievers always fluctuate every year, but still I can't see Hendry spending all this money on SP and having an inexperienced bullpen. Hendry can always hit the FA market for a couple relievers, but wouldn't you rather spend $7-8 mil a year on Wood than to sign another Howry/Eyre for $3 mil a year? If the Cubs land Peavy without giving up both of the Marshall/Samardzija, I'd let Dempster walk even if that means keeping Marquis. 4/$50 for Dempster? Me no likey.
#9 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Rays had a pretty inexperienced bullpen, and they did OK. Even in the pressure packed playoffs.
#10 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
No problem, we'll just call up the number one overall pick to get 5 out saves for us next post season.
#11 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
they had Percival, Wheeler, and Balfour at the back end for the majority of the season. All of those guys have been around for years..Balfour had bounced around the bigs and minors since 2003-04. JP Howell would be the lone exception aside from Price, but I wouldn't count Price since he came up in mid-Sept and was just buying time for a rotation spot. I champion the idea of having young SPs in the bullpen like the Twins have done, but the difference there was they had guys like Nathan, Neshek, Rincon(when he was on steroids/good) Reyes etc and the others filled in around them. The Cubs would only have Marmol as a sure thing at the end, and given his workloads over the last 2 years you never know.
#12 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
my thing is i see him making 8-10m more than i do see him making 7-8m...also, it all really depends for me on how much they plan on spending anyway. as it stands this is a 120m club. do they have 20m to work with? 10m? 30m? *shrug* i dunno.
#27 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Cubs fans love Kerry Wood. He's a Cub for life. But eventually, the fans will turn on him. These days, almost no stars stay beloved forever. I'd rather see him go to another team while we still love him than see him turn in a shitty season one day on an overpaid salary and we start hearing the boos.
If Wood leaves now, every time he pitches in Wrigley Field the fans will still cheer him. If he sticks around another 3-4 years, the fans will turn on him at some point, and I never want to see that happen.
Thanks for the memories, Kerry, but eventually you'll overstay your welcome, and the same a-holes who booed Sammy (and are starting to turn on DLee) will boo you.
#28 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
How do you see the Cubs bullpen panning out next year without Kerry, Doug? I assume you're slotting Marmol into the closer spot, but I'm just wondering who you see picking up the slack.
#35 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
I really don't know. I'm sure Kerry would be an asset to the bullpen, but possibly a detriment to the team if he's being paid $8 million a year to throw 65 innings. I still want him on the team, I would just hate to see him become the next fallen star in Chicago.
Since I don't have the kind of extensive knowledge of our prospects like someone like AZ Phil does, I really don't know who's going to be in the bullpen next year, but here are some guesses:
Long Relief:
- Marshall, Hart?
Middle Relief
- Cotts, Wuertz, Gaudin
Set-Up:
- Guzman/Ceda?, Samardzija
Closer:
- Marmol
#38 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
None of that sounds too off-base.
I think having Guzman and/or Ceda in a setup role is optimistic, though. Guzman's got a pretty extensive history of arm problems and Ceda seems still to be a fairly long way from the majors.
Also, I'm not sure I expect Samardzija to be as good next year as he was during his big-league time this year. Not saying he can't, either, just saying he's still more of a role of the dice than we always acknowledge. He showed signs at times of being pretty wild, and he really didn't have much of a season until his promotion to AAA (I'm guessing that was around when he figured out that nasty splitter/changeup that became his second effective pitch).
#39 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
I heard, and I can't remember where, that when he got to AAA they said 'OK, quit working on stuff, get outs' probably because Iowa was in contention for the league title, at which point he quit throwing the change and went to his fastball/slider combo. Maybe I am getting senile (OK, I Know I am getting senile) but I don't remember any devestating forkball.
#46 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
unless you're using a different definition of the traditional fastball/slider, he barely threw a traditional slider with the Cubs..... almost exclusively the 2-seam fastball or backdoor slider as some call it. The pitch you throw at a lefties hip and it tails over the inside corner or aim for the middle of the plate and it ends up a few feet outside to the lefty. Then of course his hard sinker, which I believe Wilken refers as his splitter.
He does have a change and traditional slider, which he threw maybe once or twice a game.
#44 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Samardzija throws 4 pitches, although he mainly focused on his the fastball/sinker with the Cubs, since he was coming out of the pen. If you look through his game logs on MLB, he'll throw the change and slider maybe once or twice a game. The big difference between his AA to AAA time was (according to Wilken) getting better at repeating his delivery and a small tweak that helped him hide his pitches a little longer.
This is where things always get confusing with Samardzija and his repetoire. Wilken calls one of his pitches a splitter, Samardzija doesn't. I assume they're talking about his sinker, but sometimes it seems like they're referencing his changeup.
as for any insanity that he's a 2-pitch pitcher...
#45 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
he's still a 2-pitch pitcher to me until he actually throws his other pitches more than 1-3 times a game.
he can claim his 3 other pitches, but until he can break them out he don't have them in some people's eye.
a batter is going up there expecting a series of pitches and right now a batter can go to the plate expecting 1 of 2 pitches almost every time.
...and his splitter/sinker/2-seamer/forkball have all been used to describe his 1 "2 seam" fastball over his "regular" 4-seam fastball.
#47 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
*shrug*
let's see what he does when he starts...relievers have little use for more than 2 pitches, even if they have them. Kerry Wood sure has more than 2 pitches, but you pretty much just saw fastball and the big-bendy slider. Marmol has more than 2 pitches, but all he throws is fastball and the slider.
#49 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
i love that bendy slider. it's kinda like a curve yet kinda like a slider. almost a slurve.
sigh...
#51 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
early in the season Wood was throwing more the frisbee slider that breaks more horizontally. He said he tweaked the grip though and now it's much more like the one Marmol throws that righties and lefties have a real hard time picking up the spin on.
Nowhere near the '98 slurve he use to throw that killed his arm, but still pretty devastating.
#57 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Next time you get a chance to watch the 20K game look at the pitch he strikes out Guiterez with around the 7th inning. It breaks up and in to him, and I think it was at about 93 MPH's. Maybe the filthiest pitch I've ever seen. You have to give the Astros right handed batters credit for going up to the plate after that one.
#52 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
A ball from a right hander that breaks that much away from left handers is called a screwball, and no one throws it anymore because it's hell on your arm... however you're right he does have something that sometimes breaks away from left handers I never noticed it, but you can see it on the fourth pitch here - if I can get the link right.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=20080903341...
The nominated for ROM August one.
The third pitch looks like the similiar motion to the fourth pitch, without the pronounced rightward break - I thought that pitch was a slider - it just doesn't look like a splitfinger - forkball to me, where the arm action is supposed to be the same as a fastball. His fastball is more three quarters and the whatever the hell he calls this pitch is more over the top. I hadn't really broken it down before, but I don't like any of his deliveries. There seems to be a more lateral movement on his leg kick on the fastball as well, but maybe that's just wonky camera angles.
Then if you look at his First Save video the second strike out he (Ramirez I think), looks like that same breaking pitch. I don't know what you call it, it's got that tailing action from the side arm follow through and also the downward action from the grip? more over-the top delivery.
They may need to start his appearances with 'kids, don't try this at home' statements.
#54 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
it's not the break, but the arm motion that makes the screwball. there's more than a few ways to grip one, but the only defining characteristics of a true screwball regardless of grip is that you get the motion out of the arm and you use that motion to grip/turn the ball.
it's really f'n neat looking, but hell on the arm.
#71 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
Actually a right hander throws a screwball by spinning the ball counter clockwise, which may be what he is doing here, and would explain why his motion doesn't look like his fastball. It would be just about impossible to throw a 3/4 screwball, when you twist your hand your arm is going to tend to follow. I can't see on that little MLB.TV window, but if his thumb is down when he releases it it's probably a screwball.
#58 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
The first 2 pitches are his fastball, but they do tail back over the plate just a bit and it's the backdoor slider that I was talking about. It's the same pitch Maddux and Z throw. In reality, it's just a 2-seam fastball and it's Samardzija's normal fastball. Find a clip against a lefty and you'll see them bail on an inside pitch that catches the inside corner. The video you linked just shows it against a righties. I've seen him throw it numerous times and the movement varies.
A screwball, of course, is a completely different arm motion and grip and dives at the end.
The last 2 pitches look like changeups to me which crunch tells me he never, ever, ever throws. Pitch f/x agrees...
K on Oswalt (fastball): 93, 4" break, 9" pfx
K on Zimmerman (fastball): 96, 5" break, 12" pfx
K on Utley (changeup): 87, 8" break, 11" pfx
K on Belliard (changeup): 86, 6" break, 13" pfx
I've tried to look up the definition on pfx, but I'm confused as hell by it.
#69 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
That is the pitch I was talking about. Granted, I don't know how much he threw this. I got to see him a bit right after his callup, but didn't get to watch many games after that.
#48 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
most relievers are two pitch pitchers.
in fact most starters are 2 pitch pitchers also. they just have to have a third to either get them out of a tight spot or the change it up in later innings.
most starters won't throw the third pitch until the third time through the order if they can help it.
#50 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
if he had a slider, he'd use it. he don't have it. it's just not developed.
...and that change is a pipedream right now.
john smoltz throws an ephus and a true screwball, but you don't see him throw it in games and until a batter can consistently expect it as part of his arsenal a batter looking to apply his trade vs. a pitcher isn't up there thinking about those pitches that show up 1-3 times an inning.
i have full faith he'll find that 3rd pitch, transition to starter, and do just fine throwing a 2-pitch-heavy outting in the pen this year (as long as his control will allow it).
right now, though...i don't think there's many if any hitters going up there looking for anything but 2 pitches when they face samninja.
#53 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
right now, though...i don't think there's many if any hitters going up there looking for anything but 2 pitches when they face [insert every relief pitcher in baseball].
I've posted everything i can possibly post about the subject. I've watched just about every single one of his outings (I'm sure so have you). I've even posted his pitch f/x logs which are quite reliable. He throws a change and a traditional slider about once or twice a game which is on par for every other relief pitcher and their 3rd and 4th pitches. He's stuck to his 2 best pitches which is on par with every other relief pitcher.
#56 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
im saying...you tell the guy to pitch his arsenal...you're not going to see any quality but his 2 pitches.
you can bank that if he had his slider...which is supposedly his most developed offspeed pitch right now...he'd throw it.
the guy likes to work the zone low...mixing a slider into that is just...bank. it's damn exciting to think this guy might one day develop that slider.
i don't think it's going out on a limb to say that the guy would throw the slider if he had a better grasp of throwing the pitch. it compliments what he does with the 2-4 seamers that it's criminal not to throw it more if he has it.
#66 Re: Friday Cubs Hot Stove Round-Up
you can bank that if he had his slider...which is supposedly his most developed offspeed pitch right now...he'd throw it.
clearly this is where we disagree. I see no reason why he'd go to his 3rd/4th best pitches too often if he didn't need them. As the 2 clips Neal showed, he did seem to use his change as his strikeout pitch early in the season. I do agree that he seemed to get away from it as the season went on.
I'm not saying either the change or slider are great pitches for him yet, although the change sure was fooling guys in those clips, but that could be a newness factor.
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