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The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
UPDATE: Here are the contract terms according to SI.com: $8 Million in 2008 with a $4M bonus ($12M total). $12.5M in 2010, $13.5 M in 2011 and a 2012 $14M player option which is almost a guarantee to be picked up. And as I mentioned earlier, I'm about 90% certain he's earned 10/5 no-trade rights.
It's being picked up by multiple news sources that the Ryan Dempster Experience will call Chicago home for the next four years. It sounds like it might be for a total of $52M a year or $13M on average. That's a pretty good deal if he pitches like he did last year, not so much if he pitches like 2001-2003. For what was out there though and for how much the Cubs and Dempster seem to like each other, it sounds like the right deal. He really did have a fantastic 2008 season. His 152 ERA+ was good for third best in the NL.
When you consider he pitched in the NL Central and Wrigley Field, a real hitter's paradise in 2008, his numbers compare quite favorably to that one Padre pitcher the Cubs have been pursuing, who pitches at the baseball equivelant of Yellowstone National Park.
| WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
OPS against |
ERA+ |
|
| Dempster | 1.21 | 8.14 | 3.31 | 2.46 | .61 | .641 | 152 |
| Peavy | 1.18 | 8.60 | 3.06 | 2.81 | .88 | .642 | 137 |
Plus Dempster had a .288 BABIP, which may rise a bit, but it's not too far off what is normally expected (around the .300 range).
That's not to say that Dempster is as good as Peavy, it's to say that he was last year. Peavy is still younger, has a longer track record of success and better "stuff", but Dempster isn't going to cost the Cubs their entire arsenal of prospects. And for all we know the Cubs could still acquire Peavy as well.
We'll see what the contract specifics end up being as I expect a good number of incentive bonuses in there. I believe with Dempster resigning, he automatically gets 10/5 rights so a no-trade clause should kick in.
Comments
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I think it is obvious that if Dempster pitches like he did this year, he is every bit as good, if not better, than Peavy. Which would make a 4/50 (or so) deal well worth it.
The big question is whether or not Dempster's season was fluky. His peripherals were very good, and don't appear to be a matter of great luck.
Of course, as many have pointed out, someone like Peavy presents as many risks as Dempster does. Dempster has the risk of being a fluke, as well as a past with injury issues. Peavy also had injury issues and is said to require almost Harden-like babying.
And of course, I would love to see Peavy join this rotation, and have, far and away, the best rotation in baseball:
Z
Peavy
Lilly
Harden
Dempster
I would also be pretty interested in Randy Johnson over Peavy. Lower risk, but, imo, just as high of an upside.
But this is just the beginning of what could be a pretty interesting off-season.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I hate to say it, but it's time to take another look at Mark Prior. He's about where Dempster was in his career when Hendry signed him, but with a more serious upside and more persistent injuries. His price is right and our expectations are probably finally realistic about his future.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
My expectation for his future is as a high school baseball coach.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
Ryan Dempster was/is not a douche.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
mark prior=wade miller
Blue Jays
really want Milton Bradley
that turf can't possibly be good for his legs
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=...
Re: Blue Jays
The old astroturf was terrible for knees/ankles, but the new stuff is actually better cushioned than grass.
Re: Blue Jays
hmm....Vernon Wells disagrees...
just kidding, I still thought the new turfgrass stuff wasn't that kind...could be wrong.
Re: Blue Jays
I play on a rec soccer team on that new turfgrass stuff here in Rome and it's really not bad. It hurts a bit to fall on, but it feels the same as grass cutting and running.
Re: Blue Jays
Hey Andrew:
If you mean Rome, Italy, does anyone follow baseball? Or is it still:
"football"
football
football
football
basketball
skiing
bocci
tennis
dominos
sitting for long periods
espresso
baseball
car racing?
Re: Blue Jays
E-Man,
That's pretty much it, assuming by football you mean "calcio." There's really no sport that compares to that.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
Considering what Peavy would cost, my vote is that this is the right move. Cubs retain control of Marshall to spell for unavoidable downtime to one of the top five - Z, Demp, Lilly, Marquis and whoever Hendry gets, hopefully a one-year flyer for medium dollars on a Randy Johnson or a Jon Garland type.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
NO thanks to Garland and is Johnson really necessary now? Unless you trade Marquis (which we all hope for), you've got the same starting 5 as last year. I'd rather trade Marquis and keep pushing for Peavy. We have more leverage now as we don't need him and so Vitters should be off the table.
I hope the new owner has deep pockets or else we're going to have to really shed payroll come 2010.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
On one hand you're saying get a pitcher with a four-year contract and then on the other hand you're saying you're worried about the payroll after 2009. Marquis and Johnson won't have payroll implications after 2009.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I know. But I think, when it comes to Peavy at least, that's a problem you deal with a year from now. Needless to say I hope the new owner has few payroll constrictions.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I'd like to see the Cubs do a one-year deal for a #4ish starter. I figure RanJo is the best options who might accept and the backup plan would be Garland. I don't like him lots, but one year and about 6M with incentives up to 9 or 10 seems acceptable risk v reward. I figure he's good for 200 innings and can probably shave about half a point off his ERA with a league switch.
Looking for pitchers going into the final year of their contract, I can't see any better (and also obtainable) options than Duchscherer, and we'd probably have to give up a lot of the same pieces we would for Peavy.
Considering the total picture, I'd take one stopgap year of Garland rather than five years of Peavy. It's too early in the tournament for Hendry to go all-in with his chips, and I have a hunch he'll want those chips later for something besides starters.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I don't see Garland taking the one year deal you mentioned. He's essentially Marquis with a slightly better record. Expect a three or four year deal for $30 to $40 million.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
It's quite possible you're right.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
Yeah, I assumed a multi-year contract for Garland also.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I'm certainly skeptical that Dempster will be worth keeping around for 4 years. I'd like to think that 08 wasn't a fluke, but I also have some serious doubts when a player has a career season (by a wide margin) at age 31.
Oh, and if this contract is actually for $52M a year, then we're really got a problem....
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
Harden would have to go to Pads or Third team in trade with Peavy.
I would still prefer a left handed bat if we are looking to mortgage the farm.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
Pedroia wins AL MVP, first AL 2B to win since Nellie Fox in 1959
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
http://www.baseballwriters.org/awards/2008/2008_AL...
full voting
Morneau finishes 2nd, Mauer 4th...proving it's more important who hits in front of you, not behind you.
Morneau had more runners on when he came up than anyone in baseball and more men on in scoring position.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gam...
Some asshole gave Jason Bartlett a 5th place vote.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I'm of mixed opinion a bit on this deal. Certainly, I like Dempster as a player and as a team leader, and I was pleased to hear that Rothschild called him one of the smartest pitchers he'd been around at utilizing scout reports. I still think though he's a decent injury risk and am afraid that this is a bit of a high price to pay for one year and I wouldn't have minded the draft picks that we would have gotten. I hope that this doesn't end the Peavy negotiations -- he's still one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball and although we no longer really need him, he'd still give us a hell of a rotation, unrivaled in the NL. If I were Hendry, I'd try to trade Marquis and some prospects for a bat. Still, I'm glad that this won't leave us in the lurch with a rotation of Z, Harden, Lilly going into the year, which although good would have been less good than last year.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
Andrew: "...I still think though he's a decent injury risk ."
I brought this up last thread.
Isn't nearly every pitcher a decent injury risk?
CC and Greg Maddux are the real exceptions.
It is "normal", even, I'd surmise that a high percentage of starters will need some kind of surgery. Its like putting in new engine components. Demp had his replaced already and last year was the result in Hendry's mind.
As CUBSTER would say, getting surgeries on elbows or shoulders gives no guarantee to future performance, on the other side of the coin either.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I get the hesitancy of some to buy into Dempster's long-term success, but is his injury "risk" really that relevant? He's been healthy since he came back in '04. Granted, different role last year and coming up, but still...
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
I agree with Andrew and Bleeding Blue as much as Dempster may be a swell guy. His stats for the six years prior to 2008 was mediocre at best. We may be getting suckered into a Pavano or Jose Guzman type deal...I would have rather spent it on Peavy and take my chances or spend it on a legit leadoff man (even 12 mil for one year of furcal..only one year). We'll see...i hope to god Dempster isn't an abberation...I would love to pedal off Marquis and put Marshall in the rotation. Interested to see what we do about this L handed bat...because all the left handed RF's have two left hands in the field!
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
even 12 mil for one year of furcal..only one year
Heh... there is absolutely no way that Furcal is signing a one-year deal this year.
And I don't need a crystal ball to predict that one.
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
One thing I don't understand from Rosenthal's article is this:
The return of Dempster would not necessarily make the Cubs less likely to trade for Padres right-hander Jake Peavy, sign free-agent lefty Randy Johnson or pursue any other player.
Their next steps likely would depend upon the wishes of the team's new ownership group, which is expected to be selected before Christmas, sources said.
I thought this was going to drag on until spring at the earliest? The ownership group will be picked in the next four weeks? Even if that's true, the Cubs and Hendry are just supposed to sit on their hands until it happens?
Re: The Ryan Dempster Era Will Continue
Rumors were that Zell still wants it done by Christmas, but I think Rosenthal is trying to pin that bit of info onto the Cubs plans for the offseason. It's unlikely they're connected.
It's also unlikely a deal gets done by then.
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